RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Several clinical trials of tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for household contacts of patients with multidrug- or rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) are nearing completion. The potential benefits of delivering TPT to MDR/RR-TB contacts extend beyond the outcomes that clinical trials can measure. METHODS: We developed an agent-based, household-structured TB and MDR/RR-TB transmission model, calibrated to an illustrative setting in India. We simulated contact investigation in households of patients with MDR/RR-TB, comparing an MDR/RR-TPT regimen (assuming 6-month duration, 70% efficacy) and associated active case finding against alternatives of contact investigation without TPT or no household intervention. We simulated the TB and MDR/RR-TB incidence averted relative to placebo over 2 years, as measurable by a typical trial, as well as the incidence averted over a longer time horizon, in the broader population, and relative to no contact investigation. RESULTS: Observing TPT and placebo recipients for 2 years as in a typical trial, MDR/RR-TPT was measured to prevent 72% (interquartile range, 45%-100%) of incident MDR/RR-TB among recipients; the median number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent 1 MDR/RR-TB case was 73, compared to placebo. This NNT decreased to 54 with 13-18 years of observation, to 27 when downstream transmission effects were also considered, and to 12 when the effects of active TB screening were included by comparing to a no-household-contact-intervention scenario. CONCLUSIONS: If forthcoming trial results demonstrate efficacy, the long-term population impact of TPT for MDR/RR-TB-including the large effect of increased active TB detection among MDR/RR-TB contacts-could be much greater than suggested by trial outcomes alone.
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Rifampin , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos , Humanos , Rifampin/uso terapéutico , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos/tratamiento farmacológico , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos/epidemiología , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos/prevención & control , Trazado de Contacto , Composición Familiar , India/epidemiología , Antituberculosos/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.
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Diabetes Mellitus , Dislipidemias , Infecciones por VIH , Hipertensión , Neoplasias , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica , Minorías Sexuales y de Género , Masculino , Humanos , Femenino , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Homosexualidad Masculina , Multimorbilidad , Prevalencia , Comorbilidad , Infecciones por VIH/complicaciones , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Hipertensión/epidemiología , Insuficiencia Renal Crónica/epidemiología , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiología , Dislipidemias/epidemiología , Neoplasias/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning. METHODS: We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results. RESULTS: We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning.
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Infecciones por VIH , Minorías Sexuales y de Género , Masculino , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Homosexualidad Masculina , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Envejecimiento , Distribución por EdadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Mortality remains elevated among Black versus White adults receiving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care in the United States. We evaluated the effects of hypothetical clinic-based interventions on this mortality gap. METHODS: We computed 3-year mortality under observed treatment patterns among >40 000 Black and >30 000 White adults entering HIV care in the United States from 1996 to 2019. We then used inverse probability weights to impose hypothetical interventions, including immediate treatment and guideline-based follow-up. We considered 2 scenarios: "universal" delivery of interventions to all patients and "focused" delivery of interventions to Black patients while White patients continued to follow observed treatment patterns. RESULTS: Under observed treatment patterns, 3-year mortality was 8% among White patients and 9% among Black patients, for a difference of 1 percentage point (95% confidence interval [CI], .5-1.4). The difference was reduced to 0.5% under universal immediate treatment (95% CI, -.4% to 1.3%) and to 0.2% under universal immediate treatment combined with guideline-based follow-up (95% CI, -1.0% to 1.4%). Under the focused delivery of both interventions to Black patients, the Black-White difference in 3-year mortality was -1.4% (95% CI, -2.3% to -.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical interventions, particularly those focused on enhancing the care of Black patients, could have significantly reduced the mortality gap between Black and White patients entering HIV care from 1996 to 2019.
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Infecciones por VIH , VIH , Disparidades en Atención de Salud , Adulto , Humanos , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por VIH/mortalidad , Factores Raciales , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Blanco , Negro o AfroamericanoRESUMEN
Data from several modeling studies demonstrate that large-scale increases in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing across settings with a high burden of HIV may produce the largest incidence reductions to support the US Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative's goal of reducing new HIV infections 90% by 2030. Despite US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendations for routine HIV screening within clinical settings and at least yearly screening for individuals most at risk of acquiring HIV, fewer than half of US adults report ever receiving an HIV test. Furthermore, total domestic funding for HIV prevention has remained unchanged between 2013 and 2019. The authors describe the evidence supporting the value of expanded HIV testing, identify challenges in implementation, and present recommendations to address these barriers through approaches at local and federal levels to reach EHE targets.
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Epidemias , Infecciones por VIH , Adulto , Humanos , VIH , Infecciones por VIH/diagnóstico , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Prueba de VIH , Epidemias/prevención & control , Tamizaje MasivoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The degree to which the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic will affect the US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic is unclear. METHODS: We used the Johns Hopkins Epidemiologic and Economic Model to project HIV infections from 2020 to 2025 in 32 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). We sampled a range of effects of the pandemic on sexual transmission (0-50% reduction), viral suppression among people with HIV (0-40% reduction), HIV testing (0-50% reduction), and pre-exposure prophylaxis use (0-30% reduction), and indexed reductions over time to Google Community Mobility Reports. RESULTS: Simulations projected reported diagnoses would drop in 2020 and rebound in 2021 or 2022, regardless of underlying incidence. If sexual transmission normalized by July 2021 and HIV care normalized by January 2022, we projected 1161 (1%) more infections from 2020 to 2025 across all 32 cities than if COVID-19 had not occurred. Among "optimistic" simulations in which sexual transmission was sharply reduced and viral suppression was maintained we projected 8% lower incidence (95% credible interval: 14% lower to no change). Among "pessimistic" simulations where sexual transmission was largely unchanged but viral suppression fell, we projected 11% higher incidence (1-21% higher). MSA-specific projections are available at www.jheem.org?covid. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of COVID-19 on HIV transmission remain uncertain and differ between cities. Reported diagnoses of HIV in 2020-2021 are likely to correlate poorly with underlying incidence. Minimizing disruptions to HIV care is critical to mitigating negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV transmission.
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COVID-19 , Infecciones por VIH , COVID-19/epidemiología , Ciudades/epidemiología , VIH , Humanos , Pandemias/prevención & controlRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Mortality among adults with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains elevated over those in the US general population, even in the years after entry into HIV care. We explore whether the elevation in 5-year mortality would have persisted if all adults with HIV had initiated antiretroviral therapy within 3 months of entering care. METHODS: Among 82â 766 adults entering HIV care at North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration clinical sites in the United States, we computed mortality over 5 years since entry into HIV care under observed treatment patterns. We then used inverse probability weights to estimate mortality under universal early treatment. To compare mortality with those for similar individuals in the general population, we used National Center for Health Statistics data to construct a cohort representing the subset of the US population matched to study participants on key characteristics. RESULTS: For the entire study period (1999-2017), the 5-year mortality among adults with HIV was 7.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.6%-8.2%) higher than expected based on the US general population. Under universal early treatment, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV would have been 7.2% (95% CI: 5.8%-8.6%). In the most recent calendar period examined (2011-2017), the elevation in mortality for people with HIV was 2.6% (95% CI: 2.0%-3.3%) under observed treatment patterns and 2.1% (.0%-4.2%) under universal early treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Expanding early treatment may modestly reduce, but not eliminate, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV.
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Infecciones por VIH , Adulto , Estudios de Cohortes , VIH , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Intimate partner violence (IPV) has been implicated in HIV acquisition and worse HIV outcomes. Limited research focuses on the experiences of Black gay and bisexual men. Using data from cross-sectional surveys in Baltimore, Maryland, and Jackson, Mississippi, we analyzed the association between IPV victimization and HIV-related outcomes among 629 adult Black gay and bisexual men, among whom 53% self-reported a negative result at last HIV test. 40% of participants reported lifetime physical, sexual, and/or psychological IPV victimization, and 24% past-year victimization. Recent and lifetime IPV were associated with recent clinical diagnosis of STI (adjPrR: 1.44; 95%CI: 1.08-1.92) and ART medication interruptions (adjPrR: 1.59; 95%CI: 1.25-2.01), respectively. Physical IPV was inversely associated with current PrEP use (adjPrR: 0.35; 95%CI: 0.13-0.90). Recent IPV was independently correlated with depression symptomatology (adjPrR: 2.36; 95%CI: 1.61-3.47) and hazardous alcohol use (adjPrR: 1.93; 95%CI: 1.42-2.61), with evidence of interactions. IPV-HIV relationships were intersected by internalized stigma, housing instability, poverty, and lack of insurance. Tailored IPV services are urgently needed for comprehensive HIV services for Black gay and bisexual men in the U.S.
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Infecciones por VIH , Violencia de Pareja , Minorías Sexuales y de Género , Adulto , Estudios Transversales , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Homosexualidad Masculina/psicología , Humanos , Masculino , Prevalencia , Sindémico , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative aims to reduce incident HIV infections by 90% over a span of 10 years. The intensity of interventions needed to achieve this for local epidemics is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of HIV interventions at the city level. DESIGN: A compartmental model of city-level HIV transmission stratified by age, race, sex, and HIV risk factor was developed and calibrated. SETTING: 32 priority metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). PATIENTS: Simulated populations in each MSA. INTERVENTION: Combinations of HIV testing and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage among those at risk for HIV, plus viral suppression in persons with diagnosed HIV infection. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was the projected reduction in incident cases from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: Absent intervention, HIV incidence was projected to decrease by 19% across all 32 MSAs. Modest increases in testing (1.25-fold per year), PrEP coverage (5 percentage points), and viral suppression (10 percentage points) across the population could achieve reductions of 34% to 67% by 2030. Twenty-five percent PrEP coverage, testing twice a year on average, and 90% viral suppression among young Black and Hispanic men who have sex with men (MSM) achieved similar reductions (13% to 68%). Including all MSM and persons who inject drugs could reduce incidence by 48% to 90%. Thirteen of 32 MSAs could achieve greater than 90% reductions in HIV incidence with large-scale interventions that include heterosexuals. A web application with location-specific results is publicly available (www.jheem.org). LIMITATION: The COVID-19 pandemic was not represented. CONCLUSION: Large reductions in HIV incidence are achievable with substantial investment, but the EHE goals will be difficult to achieve in most locations. An interactive model that can help policymakers maximize the effect in their local environments is presented. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.
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Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/organización & administración , Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Modelos Teóricos , Fármacos Anti-VIH/uso terapéutico , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Humanos , Incidencia , Tamizaje Masivo , Profilaxis Pre-Exposición , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Global progress towards reducing tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality has consistently lagged behind the World Health Organization targets leading to a perception that large reductions in TB burden cannot be achieved. However, several recent and historical trials suggest that intervention efforts that are comprehensive and intensive can have a substantial epidemiological impact. We aimed to quantify the potential epidemiological impact of an intensive but realistic, community-wide campaign utilizing existing tools and designed to achieve a "step change" in the TB burden. METHODS: We developed a compartmental model that resembled TB transmission and epidemiology of a mid-sized city in India, the country with the greatest absolute TB burden worldwide. We modeled the impact of a one-time, community-wide screening campaign, with treatment for TB disease and preventive therapy for latent TB infection (LTBI). This one-time intervention was followed by the strengthening of the tuberculosis-related health system, potentially facilitated by leveraging the one-time campaign. We estimated the tuberculosis cases and deaths that could be averted over 10 years using this comprehensive approach and assessed the contributions of individual components of the intervention. RESULTS: A campaign that successfully screened 70% of the adult population for active and latent tuberculosis and subsequently reduced diagnostic and treatment delays and unsuccessful treatment outcomes by 50% was projected to avert 7800 (95% range 5450-10,200) cases and 1710 (1290-2180) tuberculosis-related deaths per 1 million population over 10 years. Of the total averted deaths, 33.5% (28.2-38.3) were attributable to the inclusion of preventive therapy and 52.9% (48.4-56.9) to health system strengthening. CONCLUSIONS: A one-time, community-wide mass campaign, comprehensively designed to detect, treat, and prevent tuberculosis with currently existing tools can have a meaningful and long-lasting epidemiological impact. Successful treatment of LTBI is critical to achieving this result. Health system strengthening is essential to any effort to transform the TB response.
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Epidemias , Tuberculosis Latente , Tuberculosis , Adulto , Humanos , Incidencia , India/epidemiología , Tuberculosis/diagnóstico , Tuberculosis/epidemiología , Tuberculosis/prevención & controlRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: India and many other high-burden countries have committed to providing universal access to high-quality diagnosis and drug susceptibility testing (DST) for tuberculosis (TB), but the most cost-effective approach to achieve this goal remains uncertain. Centralized testing at district-level hub facilities with a supporting sample transport network can generate economies of scale, but decentralization to the peripheral level may provide faster diagnosis and reduce losses to follow-up (LTFU). METHODS: We generated functions to evaluate the costs of centralized and decentralized molecular testing for tuberculosis with Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert), a WHO-endorsed test which can be performed at centralized and decentralized levels. We merged the cost estimates with an agent-based simulation of TB transmission in a hypothetical representative region in India to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of each strategy. RESULTS: Compared against centralized Xpert testing, decentralization was most favorable when testing volume at decentralized facilities and pre-treatment LTFU were high, and specimen transport network was exclusively established for TB. Assuming equal quality of centralized and decentralized testing, decentralization was cost-saving, saving a median $338,000 (interquartile simulation range [IQR] - $222,000; $889,000) per 20 million people over 10 years, in the most cost-favorable scenario. In the most cost-unfavorable scenario, decentralized testing would cost a median $3161 [IQR $2412; $4731] per disability-adjusted life year averted relative to centralized testing. CONCLUSIONS: Decentralization of Xpert testing is likely to be cost-saving or cost-effective in most settings to which these simulation results might generalize. More decentralized testing is more cost-effective in settings with moderate-to-high peripheral testing volumes, high existing clinical LTFU, inability to share specimen transport costs with other disease entities, and ability to ensure high-quality peripheral Xpert testing. Decision-makers should assess these factors when deciding whether to decentralize molecular testing for tuberculosis.
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Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud/economía , Técnicas de Amplificación de Ácido Nucleico/economía , Técnicas de Amplificación de Ácido Nucleico/métodos , Pruebas en el Punto de Atención/economía , Tuberculosis/diagnóstico , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Humanos , India , Modelos Económicos , Mycobacterium tuberculosisRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) greatly reduces the risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition, but its optimal delivery strategy remains uncertain. Clinics for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) can provide an efficient venue for PrEP delivery. METHODS: To quantify the added value of STI clinic-based PrEP delivery, we used an agent-based simulation of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). We simulated the impact of PrEP delivery through STI clinics compared with PrEP delivery in other community-based settings. Our primary outcome was the projected 20-year reduction in HIV incidence among MSM. RESULTS: Assuming PrEP uptake and adherence of 60% each, evaluating STI clinic attendees and delivering PrEP to eligible MSM reduced HIV incidence by 16% [95% uncertainty range, 14%-18%] over 20 years, an impact that was 1.8 (1.7-2.0) times as great as that achieved by evaluating an equal number of MSM recruited from the community. Comparing strategies where an equal number of MSM received PrEP in each strategy (ie, evaluating more individuals for PrEP in the community-based strategy, because MSM attending STI clinics are more likely to be PrEP eligible), the reduction in HIV incidence under the STI clinic-based strategy was 1.3 (1.3-1.4) times as great as that of community-based delivery. CONCLUSIONS: Delivering PrEP to MSM who attend STI clinics can improve efficiency and effectiveness. If high levels of adherence can be achieved in this population, STI clinics may be an important venue for PrEP implementation.
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Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Homosexualidad Masculina/estadística & datos numéricos , Profilaxis Pre-Exposición , Enfermedades de Transmisión Sexual/prevención & control , Instituciones de Atención Ambulatoria , Baltimore/epidemiología , Simulación por Computador , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Humanos , Masculino , Aceptación de la Atención de Salud , Conducta Sexual , Parejas Sexuales , Minorías Sexuales y de Género , Enfermedades de Transmisión Sexual/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
RATIONALE: Household contact tracing has recently been endorsed for global tuberculosis (TB) control, but its potential population-level impact remains uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To project the maximum impact of household contact tracing for TB in a moderate-burden setting. METHODS: We developed a stochastic, agent-based simulation model of a simplified TB epidemic, calibrated to a setting of moderate TB incidence. We used data from the literature to generate "community-driven" and "household-driven" scenarios in which 22 and 50% of TB transmission occurred within the household, respectively. In each scenario, we simulated an intervention in which the household members are screened and treated for TB at the time of an index patient's active TB diagnosis. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: By the time of TB diagnosis, 75 to 95% of initial household infections had already occurred, but only 1.5 to 3.0% of contacts had sufficient time to progress to active TB. With 100% sensitive tracing of all contacts for 5 consecutive years, TB incidence declined by 10 to 15%, with a mean year-over-year decline of 2% per year. Effects were sustained for many years after stopping the intervention. Providing preventive therapy with contact tracing nearly doubled this impact (17-27% decline in incidence). Impact was proportional to sensitivity and coverage; thus, if 50% of contacts were screened with a 50% sensitive test, TB incidence declined by only 0.5% per year. CONCLUSIONS: Household contact tracing is unlikely to transform TB epidemiology in isolation but has the potential, especially with provision of preventive therapy, to augment a comprehensive package of interventions that could substantially reduce the population-level burden of TB.
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Trazado de Contacto , Tuberculosis Pulmonar/transmisión , Simulación por Computador , Composición Familiar , Humanos , Incidencia , Modelos Teóricos , Tuberculosis Pulmonar/diagnóstico , Tuberculosis Pulmonar/epidemiología , Tuberculosis Pulmonar/prevención & controlAsunto(s)
Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Sociedades Médicas/organización & administración , Fármacos Anti-VIH/uso terapéutico , Femenino , Salud Global , Infecciones por VIH/terapia , Programas Gente Sana/métodos , Programas Gente Sana/organización & administración , Humanos , Cooperación Internacional , MasculinoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Laboratory networks provide services through onsite testing or through specimen transport to higher-tier laboratories. This decision is based on the interplay of testing characteristics, treatment characteristics, and epidemiological characteristics. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to develop a generalizable model using the threshold approach to medical decision making to inform test placement decisions. METHODS: We developed a decision model to compare the incremental utility of onsite versus send-out testing for clinical purposes. We then performed Monte Carlo simulations to identify the settings under which each strategy would be preferred. Tuberculosis was modeled as an exemplar. RESULTS: The most important determinants of the decision to test onsite versus send-out were the clinical utility lost due to send-out testing delays and the accuracy decrement with onsite testing. When the sensitivity decrements of onsite testing were minimal, onsite testing tended to be preferred when send-out delays reduced clinical utility by >20%. By contrast, when onsite testing incurred large reductions in sensitivity, onsite testing tended to be preferred when utility lost due to delays was >50%. The relative cost of onsite versus send-out testing affected these thresholds, particularly when testing costs were >10% of treatment costs. CONCLUSIONS: Decision makers can select onsite versus send-out testing in an evidence-based fashion using estimates of the percentage of clinical utility lost due to send-out delays and the relative accuracy of onsite versus send-out testing. This model is designed to be generalizable to a wide variety of use cases. HIGHLIGHTS: The design of laboratory networks, including the decision to place diagnostic instruments at the point-of-care or at higher tiers as accessed through specimen transport, can be informed using the threshold approach to medical decision making.The most important determinants of the decision to test onsite versus send-out were the clinical utility lost due to send-out testing delays and the accuracy decrement with onsite testing.The threshold approach to medical decision making can be used to compare point-of-care testing accuracy decrements with the lost utility of treatment due to send-out testing delays.The relative cost of onsite versus send-out testing affected these thresholds, particularly when testing costs were >10% of treatment costs.
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Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico , Tuberculosis , Humanos , Sistemas de Atención de Punto , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Costos de la Atención en SaludRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To provide accurate forecasts of the age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) in Kenya from 2025 to 2040. DESIGN: Development of a compartmental model of HIV in Kenya, calibrated to historical estimates of HIV epidemiology. METHODS: We forecasted changes in population size and age distribution of new HIV infections and PWH under the status quo and under scale-up of HIV services. RESULTS: Without scale-up, new HIV infections were forecasted to fall from 34â000 (28â000-41â000) in 2,025 to 29â000 (15â000-57â000) in 2,040; the percentage of new infections occurring among persons over 30 increased from 33% (20-50%) to 40% (24-62%). The median age of PWH increased from 39âyears (38-40) in 2025 to 43 years (39-46) in 2040, and the percentage of PWH over age 50 increased from 26% (23-29%) to 34% (26-43%). Under the full intervention scenario, new infections were forecasted to fall to 6,000 (3,000-12â000) in 2,040. The percentage of new infections occurring in people over age 30 increased to 52% (34-71%) in 2,040, and there was an additional shift in the age structure of PWH [forecasted median age of 46 (43-48) and 40% (33-47%) over age 50]. CONCLUSION: PWH in Kenya are forecasted to age over the next 15âyears; improvements to the HIV care continuum are expected to contribute to the growing proportion of older PWH.
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Predicción , Infecciones por VIH , Humanos , Kenia/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Masculino , Femenino , Adulto Joven , Adolescente , Distribución por Edad , Niño , Preescolar , LactanteRESUMEN
Background: Several clinical trials of tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for household contacts of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are nearing completion. The potential benefits of TPT for MDR-TB contacts extend beyond the outcomes that clinical trials can measure. Methods: We developed an agent-based, household-structured TB and MDR-TB transmission model, calibrated to an illustrative setting in India, the country accounting for 26% of global MDR-TB burden. We simulated household contact investigation for contacts of patients with MDR-TB, comparing an MDR-TPT regimen against alternatives of isoniazid preventive treatment, household contact investigation without TPT, or no household contact intervention. We simulated outcomes of a clinical trial and estimated the patient-level and population-level effects over a longer time horizon. Findings: During two years of follow-up per recipient, a simulated 6-month MDR-TPT regimen with 70% efficacy against both DS- and MDR-TB infection could prevent 72% [Interquartile range (IQR): 45 - 100%] of incident MDR-TB among TPT recipients (number needed to treat (NNT) 73 [44 - 176] to prevent one MDR-TB case), compared to household contact investigation without TPT. This NNT decreased to 54 [30 - 183] when median follow-up was increased from two to 16 years, to 27 [11 - Inf] when downstream transmission effects were also considered, and to 12 [8 - 22] when these effects were compared to a scenario of no household contact intervention. Interpretation: If forthcoming trial results demonstrate efficacy, the long-term population impact of MDR-TPT implementation could be much greater than suggested by trial outcomes alone. Funding: NIH K01AI138853 and K08AI127908; Johns Hopkins Catalyst Award.
RESUMEN
PURPOSE: Model-based forecasts of population size, deaths, and age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) are helpful for public health and clinical services planning but are influenced by subgroup-specific heterogeneities and changes in mortality rates. METHODS: Using an agent-based simulation of PWH in the United States, we examined the impact of distinct approaches to parametrizing mortality rates on forecasted epidemiology of PWH on antiretroviral treatment (ART). We first estimated mortality rates among (1) all PWH, (2) sex-specific, (3) sex-and-race/ethnicity-specific, and (4) sex-race/ethnicity-and-HIV-acquisition-risk-specific subgroups. We then assessed each scenario by (1) allowing unrestricted reductions in age-specific mortality rates over time and (2) restricting the mortality rates among PWH to subgroup-specific mortality thresholds from the general population. RESULTS: Among the eight scenarios examined, those lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates forecasted the lowest number of deaths among all PWH and 9 of the 15 subgroups through 2030. The forecasted overall number and age distribution of people with a history of injection drug use were sensitive to inclusion of subgroup-specific mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Our results underscore the potential risk of underestimating future deaths by models lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities in mortality rates, and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates.
Asunto(s)
Etnicidad , Infecciones por VIH , Masculino , Femenino , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Distribución por Edad , Densidad de Población , Simulación por Computador , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a key component in helping to reduce HIV incidence in the United States. Long-acting injectable (LAI) PrEP is a new alternative to oral PrEP; its potential to affect local HIV epidemics remains unclear. METHODS: The Johns Hopkins HIV Economic Epidemiological model (JHEEM) is a dynamic model of HIV transmission in 32 US urban areas. We used JHEEM to project the HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) from 2020 to 2030 under a range of interventions aimed at increasing PrEP use. RESULTS: In the absence of any intervention (ie, current levels of oral PrEP and HIV care engagement), we projected a 19% reduction (95% credible interval, CrI 1% to 36%) in HIV incidence among MSM from 2020 to 2030 across all 32 cities. Adding 10% LAI PrEP uptake (above a base case of all oral PrEP) reduced the incidence by 36% (95% CrI 23% to 50%) by year 2030. This effect varied between cities, ranging from 22% in Atlanta to 51% in San Francisco. At 25% additional LAI PrEP uptake, this incidence reduction increased to 54% (95% CrI 45% to 64%). Reductions in incidence after introducing LAI PrEP were driven primarily by increased uptake and sustained usage rather than increased efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: LAI PrEP has the potential to substantially reduce HIV incidence among MSM, particularly if it increases PrEP uptake and continued use beyond existing levels. Because potential effects vary by city, the effectiveness of expanding PrEP use is dependent on local dynamics.
Asunto(s)
Fármacos Anti-VIH , Epidemias , Infecciones por VIH , Profilaxis Pre-Exposición , Minorías Sexuales y de Género , Fármacos Anti-VIH/uso terapéutico , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Homosexualidad Masculina , Humanos , Masculino , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The age-distribution of men who have sex with men (MSM) continues to change in the 'Treat-All' era as effective test-and-treat programs target key-populations. However, the nature of these changes and potential racial heterogeneities remain uncertain. METHODS: The PEARL model is an agent-based simulation of MSM in HIV care in the US, calibrated to data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). RESULTS: PEARL projects a gradual decrease in median age of MSM at ART initiation from 36 to 31 years during 2010-2030, accompanied by changes in mortality among Black, White, and Hispanic MSM on ART by -8.4%, 42.4% and -19.6%. The median age of all MSM on ART is projected to increase from 45 to 47 years from 2010-2030, with the proportion of ART-users age ≥60y increasing from 6.7% to 28.0%. Almost half (49.7%) of White MSM ART-users are projected to age ≥60y by 2030, compared to 19.5% of Black and 17.2% of Hispanic MSM. CONCLUSIONS: The overall age of US MSM in HIV care is expected to increase over the next decade, and differentially by race/ethnicity. As this population age, HIV programs should expand care for age-related causes of morbidity and mortality.