A Monte Carlo simulation of air ambulance requirements during major combat operations.

In this study, we evaluate rules of allocation and planning factors that have an effect on requirements for Army air ambulance companies. The Army uses rules of allocation in scenarios drawn from strategic planning documents to determine how many units of each type are required. Army planners use these rules for determining the number of units required to support specific operational and tactical scenarios. Unrealistic rules result in unrealistic unit requirements. We evaluate quantitatively (via Monte Carlo simulation) planning considerations for air ambulance units during major combat operations (MCO) and estimate that 0.4 airframes per admission would be a reasonable planning factor.

Evaluating MEDEVAC Force Structure Requirements Using an Updated Army Scenario, Total Army Analysis Admission Data, Monte Carlo Simulation, and Theater Structure.

In this study, we re-evaluate air ambulance requirements (rules of allocation) and planning considerations based on an Army-approved, Theater Army Analysis scenario. A previous study using workload only estimated a requirement of 0.4 to 0.6 aircraft per admission, a significant bolus over existence-based rules. In this updated study, we estimate requirements for Phase III (major combat operations) using a simulation grounded in previously published work and Phase IV (stability operations) based on four rules of allocation: unit existence rules, workload factors, theater structure (geography), and manual input. This study improves upon previous work by including the new air ambulance mission requirements of Department of Defense 51001.1, Roles and Functions of the Services, by expanding the analysis over two phases, and by considering unit rotation requirements known as Army Force Generation based on Department of Defense policy. The recommendations of this study are intended to inform future planning factors and already provided decision support to the Army Aviation Branch in determining force structure requirements.