Molecular Epidemiology of Wild Poliovirus Type 1 and Shift in the Historically Reservoir Areas of Pakistan During 2019-2022.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan is one of the two countries endemic for wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1). Active clinical and environmental wastewater surveillance along with laboratory investigation is an integral and primary component of the polio eradication strategies. The current study is mainly focused on the virological data to understand the current epidemiology of WPV1 in Pakistan during 2019-2022. METHODS: 141,037 stool specimens of patients reported with acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and 3,171 wastewater samples were tested for poliovirus detection using cell culture and PCR. Phylogenetic analysis of WPV1 was performed using MEGA and Nextstrain. RESULTS: Poliovirus isolates were classified into 15 distinct genetic clusters with multiple transmission lineages. Spatio-temporal trends indicated a significant decline in the incidence of poliomyelitis reported in 58 districts in 2019 to just 3 in 2022. The historical reservoirs in Peshawar, Quetta, and Karachi successfully eliminated the indigenous transmission chains of wild poliovirus active there for years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reinforce the evolving epidemiology of poliovirus in Pakistan which is now confined to South KP. All historically known reservoirs in Peshawar, Karachi and Quetta blocs are now free of poliovirus. Intensified clinical and environmental surveillance should be maintained to eliminate the very few remaining transmission lineages and certify the poliovirus eradication by 2026.

Molecular characterization of rotavirus indicates predominance of G9P[4] genotype among children with acute gastroenteritis: First report after vaccine introduction in Pakistan.

Globally, Group A rotavirus (RVA) is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in children under 5 years old, with Pakistan having the highest rates of RVA-related morbidity and mortality. The current study aims to determine the genetic diversity of rotavirus and evaluate the impact of Rotarix-vaccine introduction on disease epidemiology in Pakistan. A total of 4749 children, hospitalized with acute gastroenteritis between 2018 and 2020, were tested at four hospitals in Lahore and Karachi. Of the total, 19.3% (918/4749) cases were tested positive for RVA antigen, with the positivity rate varying annually (2018 = 22.7%, 2019 = 14.4%, 2020 = 20.9%). Among RVA-positive children, 66.3% were under 1 year of age. Genotyping of 662 enzyme-linked immuno sorbent assay-positive samples revealed the predominant genotype as G9P[4] (21.4%), followed by G1P[8] (18.9%), G3P[8] (11.4%), G12P[6] (8.7%), G2P[4] (5.7%), G2P[6] (4.8%), and 10.8% had mixed genotypes. Among vaccinated children, genotypes G9P[4] and G12P[6] were more frequently detected, whereas a decline in G2P[4] was observed. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed the continued circulation of indigenous genotypes detected earlier in the country except G9 and P[6] strains. Our findings highlight the predominance of G9P[4] genotype after the vaccine introduction thus emphasizing continual surveillance to monitor the disease burden, viral diversity, and their impact on control of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children.

Is geopolitics a new risk to environmental policy in the European union?

Geopolitical risks and environmental policy have become increasingly important in the European Union (EU), which is committed to tackling climate change and protecting the environment. However, geopolitical risks can undermine its environmental policy objectives. Thus, the study evaluates the relationship between geopolitical risks and environmental policy in nineteen EU countries from 1994 to 2020 through panel bootstrap Granger causality. The results show that geopolitical risks significantly influence environmental policy in Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and Romania. On the other hand, the findings reveal that environmental policy causes geopolitical risks only in Latvia, while there is no relationship in the remaining countries. Therefore, policymakers must develop resilience to geopolitical risks, promote renewable energy, strengthen environmental regulations, and address social and economic implications to reduce environmental policy vulnerability to geopolitical risks.

Conserved Antigenic Structure of Contemporary Wild Poliovirus Type 1 Strains Endemic in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Elimination of poliovirus in Pakistan and Afghanistan is challenged by notions against the role of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in eradicating contemporary wild poliovirus (WPV) strains. METHODS: A total of 1055 WPV type 1 (WPV1) strains isolated between 2013 and 2018 were categorized into 68 antigenic groups and tested for neutralization by OPV-derived antibodies. Molecular docking was conducted to determine neutralization efficiency of antibodies against WPV. The clinical significance of WPV1 variants was assessed to ascertain their role in patient outcomes. RESULTS: We found that 88% of WPV1 strains isolated from paralytic children belonged to a single antigenic lineage identical to the WPV1 strain detected in 1993. WPV1 antigenic variants were effectively neutralized by OPV-derived antibodies, with geometric mean titers comparable to the neutralization titers found for 3 strains in OPV (OPV1-3, 7.96-9.149 [95% confidence interval, 6.864-10.171]; WPV1 strains, 7.542-8.786 [6.493-9.869]). Docking examination underscored a strong antigen-antibody interaction despite variations within the viral protein 1 epitopes. There was no significant association (P = .78) with clinical prognosis among patients infected with antigenically diverse WPV1 strains and patient outcomes, including death. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings substantiate the robustness of OPV for neutralizing the contemporary WPV1 strains endemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Vaccination coverage must be augmented to achieve early eradication.

COVID-19 impact on multifractality of energy prices: Asymmetric multifractality analysis.

This article assesses the asymmetric multifractality of the energy prices in the different periods during the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) through asymmetric multifractality detrended fluctuation analysis. The higher (lower) multifractality shows a rapid rise (fall), which has different consequences for the energy prices. The findings explore strong multifractality in the downward movements for crude oil, heating oil, diesel, gasoline, propane and kerosene oil returns. The upside multifractality for coal and natural gas returns are bigger than the downside in both periods. Furthermore, the access asymmetry is more pronounced during the COVID-19, implying increased market inefficiency. The outcomes explore if energy prices are inefficient during the pandemic. A special attention is required in order to observe such unexpected fluctuations in the price dynamic and guidelines are vital. The level of efficiency can be improved by a greater transference in information while the government must play its role in regulations. Such aspects can increase stability and decrease the expected risks and price movements.

Genetic Epidemiology Reveals 3 Chronic Reservoir Areas With Recurrent Population Mobility Challenging Poliovirus Eradication in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan is among 3 countries endemic for wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) circulation that are still struggling for eradication of poliomyelitis. Active clinical and environmental surveillance with meticulous laboratory investigations provide insights into poliovirus transmission patterns and genomic diversity to inform decisions for strategic operations required to achieve eradication. METHODS: We analyzed epidemiological and virological data to comprehend the current epidemiological status of WPV1 in Pakistan during 2015-2017. Stool specimens of patients with acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and sewage samples collected from 60 environmental sites were tested. Viral culturing, intratypic differentiation by real-time polymerase chain reaction, and nucleic acid sequencing of the VP1 region of the poliovirus genome to determine genetic relatedness among WPV1 strains were applied. RESULTS: Poliovirus isolates were grouped into 11 distinct clusters, which had ≥95% nucleotide homology in the VP1 coding region. Most of the poliovirus burden was shared by 3 major reservoirs: Karachi, Peshawar, and Quetta block (64.2% in 2015, 75.4% in 2016, and 76.7% in 2017). CONCLUSIONS: Environmental surveillance reveals importations and pockets of unimmunized children that dictate intensive target mop-up campaigns to contain poliovirus transmission. A decrease in the number of orphan isolates reflects effective combination of AFP and environmental surveillance in Pakistan. The genetic data reflect sustained transmission within reservoir areas, further expanded by periodic importations to areas of high immunity reflected by immediate termination of imported viruses. Improved immunization coverage with high-quality surveillance is vital for global certification of polio eradication.

Rapid and Sensitive Direct Detection and Identification of Poliovirus from Stool and Environmental Surveillance Samples by Use of Nanopore Sequencing.

Global poliovirus surveillance involves virus isolation from stool and environmental samples, intratypic differential (ITD) by PCR, and sequencing of the VP1 region to distinguish vaccine (Sabin), vaccine-derived, and wild-type polioviruses and to ensure an appropriate response. This cell culture algorithm takes 2 to 3 weeks on average between sample receipt and sequencing. Direct detection of viral RNA using PCR allows faster detection but has traditionally faced challenges related to poor sensitivity and difficulties in sequencing common samples containing poliovirus and enterovirus mixtures. We present a nested PCR and nanopore sequencing protocol that allows rapid (<3 days) and sensitive direct detection and sequencing of polioviruses in stool and environmental samples. We developed barcoded primers and a real-time analysis platform that generate accurate VP1 consensus sequences from multiplexed samples. The sensitivity and specificity of our protocol compared with those of cell culture were 90.9% (95% confidence interval, 75.7% to 98.1%) and 99.2% (95.5% to 100.0%) for wild-type 1 poliovirus, 92.5% (79.6% to 98.4%) and 98.7% (95.4% to 99.8%) for vaccine and vaccine-derived serotype 2 poliovirus, and 88.3% (81.2% to 93.5%) and 93.2% (88.6% to 96.3%) for Sabin 1 and 3 poliovirus alone or in mixtures when tested on 155 stool samples in Pakistan. Variant analysis of sequencing reads also allowed the identification of polioviruses and enteroviruses in artificial mixtures and was able to distinguish complex mixtures of polioviruses in environmental samples. The median identity of consensus nanopore sequences with Sanger or Illumina sequences from the same samples was >99.9%. This novel method shows promise as a faster and safer alternative to cell culture for the detection and real-time sequencing of polioviruses in stool and environmental samples.

A Metamaterial-Based Compact Planar Monopole Antenna for Wi-Fi and UWB Applications.

Ultrawideband (UWB) antennas are widely used as core devices in high-speed wireless communication. A novel compact UWB monopole antenna with an additional narrow band for Wi-Fi applications comprising a metamaterial (MTM) is proposed in this paper. The antenna has a compact size of 27 × 33 mm2 and consists of a V-shaped slot with two rectangular slots in the radiation patch. The inductance and capacitance develop due to the V-shaped slot in the radiation patch. The proposed antenna has -10 dB bandwidths of 3.2 GHz to 14 GHz for UWB and 2.38 GHz to 2.57 GHz for narrowband, corresponding to 144% and 7.66% fractional bandwidths, respectively. The measured gain and efficiency meet the desired values for UWB and Wi-Fi applications. To verify the performance of the antenna, the proposed antenna is fabricated and tested. The simulated and measured results agree well at UWB frequencies and Wi-Fi frequencies, and the antenna can be used as a smart device for portable IoT applications.

Epidemiological and molecular investigation of a measles outbreak in Punjab, Pakistan, 2013-2015.

Despite the availability of an effective vaccine, the measles virus continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality in children worldwide. Molecular characterization of wild-type measles strains is an invaluable component of epidemiological studies or surveillance systems that provides important information pertinent to outbreak linkages and transmission pathways. Serum samples and throat swabs were collected from suspected measles cases from the Punjab province of Pakistan (2013-2015) and further tested for measles immunoglobulin M (IgM) through enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for molecular characterization. Among the total of 5415 blood samples, 59% tested positive for measles IgM. Males had a higher infection rate (55%) than females (45%), and the highest frequency of positive cases (63%) was found in the age group of 0 to 5 years. Partial sequencing of the nucleoprotein gene showed that 27 strains belonged to the B3 genotype, whereas 2 viruses were identified as D4. On phylogenetic analysis, Pakistani B3 strains were found to be closely related to previously reported indigenous strains and those from neighboring countries of Iran and Qatar. This is the first report on the detection of the measles B3 genotype from Punjab, Pakistan. The current study shows a high burden of measles infections in Punjab province owing to poor routine immunization coverage in major cities. It is imperative that national health authorities adopt strategic steps on an urgent basis for improvement of routine immunization coverage. Molecular epidemiology of the measles viruses circulating in different parts of the country can provide useful data to manage future outbreaks.

A measles outbreak in Sindh, Pakistan caused by a genotype B3 virus.

Measles continues to be a major public health issue causing substantial outbreaks worldwide, mostly affecting young children. Molecular analysis of measles viruses provides important information on outbreak linkages and transmission pathways that can be helpful towards implementation of appropriate control programs. In Pakistan, the control of measles is still tenuous, and progress towards elimination has been irregular and challenging. In the 2013 measles outbreak we received 4,682 sera collected from suspected patients in 23 districts across Sindh. A total of 3,283 samples were confirmed measles positive using IgM ELISA with the highest infection rate in children aged 1-12 months. Males were more affected than females and a visible peak was observed from January to April. Among the 3,283 cases, 59.1% were unvaccinated, 29.6% had received 1 dose and 10.3% had received 2 doses of measles vaccine while 0.85% had an unknown vaccination status. For genotype detection and phylogenetic analysis, 60 throat swab samples were collected from suspected patients below 15 years of age in eight districts of Sindh province. Forty four (73%; 44/60) throat swab samples were successfully genotyped using RT-PCR. Phylogenetic analyses based on partial sequences of the nucleocapsid protein gene revealed that all Pakistani measles virus strains belonged to genotype B3 and were closely related to those isolated from neighboring countries such as Iran, Afghanistan (99.1-100%) and India with 98.6 - 99.6% nucleotide homology. This is the first report on the phylogenetic analysis of measles B3 genotype strains from Pakistan and highlights the need for strengthening the surveillance systems and improving immunization coverage across the country.

Genomic Surveillance Elucidates Persistent Wild Poliovirus Transmission During 2013-2015 in Major Reservoir Areas of Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Despite tremendous efforts in the fight against polio, Pakistan bears the highest proportion of poliomyelitis cases among the 3 endemic countries including Afghanistan and Nigeria. Apart from insecurity and inaccessibility challenges, the substantial shift of unimmunized children from North Waziristan due to recent military operations was presumed to favor the widespread poliovirus infection in Pakistan. METHODS: To better understand the current epidemiological situation, we analyzed the virologic data of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) strains detected in Pakistan during 2013-2015. RESULTS: Five genetic clusters (A-E) were identified with at least 5% nucleotide divergence in the viral protein 1 (VP1) coding region. Peshawar, Quetta, and Karachi were found to be the major endemic foci where multiple discrete genetic lineages of WPV1 were detected. Phylogenetic analysis suggests that wild poliovirus strains from endemic regions were genetically distant (with 5%-15% VP1 nucleotide divergence) from those detected in North Waziristan cases, excluding the possibility of a recent progenitor of WPV1 instigating single-source transmission across the country. Orphan lineages detected in Rawalpindi, Lahore, Hyderabad, Sukkur, and Jacobabad revealed silent transmission and the need for vigilant surveillance. Sustenance of analogous genetic lineages over a period of 3 years highlights multiple unimmunized foci present to maintain viral genetic diversity. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are inconsistent with the hypothesis that impoverished populations from North Waziristan serve as a possible determinant of widespread poliomyelitis infection in Pakistan and further emphasize the need to scale-up clinical and environmental surveillance as well as immunization activities.

'Human bocavirus in Pakistani children with gastroenteritis'.

Human Bocaviruses (HBoV) have been detected in human respiratory and gastrointestinal infections worldwide. Four genotypes of HBoV (HBoV1-4) have been described; HBoV-1 is associated with respiratory tract infections while HBoV-2, -3, and -4 genotypes are considered as entero-pathogenic although the exact role largely remains unclear. The global prevalence of HBoV has been reported, but the epidemiological data from Pakistan is largely unavailable to date. This study was conducted to understand the genetic diversity and disease prevalence of HBoV in hospitalized Pakistani children with acute diarrhea. During 2009, a total of 365 stool samples were collected from children hospitalized with gastrointestinal symptoms (as per WHO case definitions) at Rawalpindi General Hospital, Pakistan. Demographic and clinical data were recorded using a standardized questionnaire. The samples were tested for HBoV and rotavirus using real-time RT-PCR and ELISA, respectively. There were 47 (13%) samples positive for HBoV with 98% (n = 46) showing co-infection with rotavirus. HBoV-1 was the most frequently detected and was found in 94% samples followed by HBoV-2 and HBoV-3 genotypes. The mean age of infected children was 7.57 ± 5.4 months while detection was more frequent in males (n = 32, 68%). All cases recovered after 2.43 ± 1.0 mean days of treatment. On phylogenetic analysis, HBoV strains from Pakistan clustered closely with viruses from neighboring Bangladesh and China. These findings represent the first known epidemiological study in Pakistan to investigate the role of HBoV in acute gastroenteritis. The clinical data demonstrates that HBoV is not significantly associated with gastroenteritis alone and predominantly co-infections with rotavirus are found.

Detection of multiple cocirculating wild poliovirus type 1 lineages through environmental surveillance: impact and progress during 2011-2013 in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: The environmental surveillance has proven to be a useful tool to identify poliovirus circulation in different countries and was started in Pakistan during July 2009 to support the acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance system. METHODS: Sewage samples were collected from 27 environmental sampling (ENV) sites and processed for poliovirus isolation through 2-phase separation method. Poliovirus isolates were identified as Sabin-like or wild type through real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Wild-type strains were subjected to VP1 gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis performed using MEGA 5.0. RESULTS: During 2011-2013, a total of 668 samples were collected from 4 provinces that resulted in 40% of samples positive for wild poliovirus type-1 (WPV-1). None of the samples were positive for WPV-3. The areas with high frequency of WPV-1 detection were Karachi-Gadap (69%), Peshawar (82%), and Rawalpindi (65%), whereas the samples from Quetta and Sukkur remained negative for WPV during 2013. Phylogenetic analysis revealed 3 major clusters with multiple poliovirus lineages circulating across different country areas as well as in bordering areas of Afghanistan. CONCLUSIONS: Environmental surveillance in Pakistan has been proven to be a powerful tool to detect WPV circulation in the absence of poliomyelitis cases in many communities. Our findings emphasize the need to continue and expand such surveillance activities to other high-risk areas in the country.

Identification and characterization of unrecognized viruses in stool samples of non-polio acute flaccid paralysis children by simplified VIDISCA.

BACKGROUND: The use of sequence independent methods combined with next generation sequencing for identification purposes in clinical samples appears promising and exciting results have been achieved to understand unexplained infections. One sequence independent method, Virus Discovery based on cDNA Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (VIDISCA) is capable of identifying viruses that would have remained unidentified in standard diagnostics or cell cultures. METHODS: VIDISCA is normally combined with next generation sequencing, however, we set up a simplified VIDISCA which can be used in case next generation sequencing is not possible. Stool samples of 10 patients with unexplained acute flaccid paralysis showing cytopathic effect in rhabdomyosarcoma cells and/or mouse cells were used to test the efficiency of this method. To further characterize the viruses, VIDISCA-positive samples were amplified and sequenced with gene specific primers. RESULTS: Simplified VIDISCA detected seven viruses (70%) and the proportion of eukaryotic viral sequences from each sample ranged from 8.3 to 45.8%. Human enterovirus EV-B97, EV-B100, echovirus-9 and echovirus-21, human parechovirus type-3, human astrovirus probably a type-3/5 recombinant, and tetnovirus-1 were identified. Phylogenetic analysis based on the VP1 region demonstrated that the human enteroviruses are more divergent isolates circulating in the community. CONCLUSION: Our data support that a simplified VIDISCA protocol can efficiently identify unrecognized viruses grown in cell culture with low cost, limited time without need of advanced technical expertise. Also complex data interpretation is avoided thus the method can be used as a powerful diagnostic tool in limited resources. Redesigning the routine diagnostics might lead to additional detection of previously undiagnosed viruses in clinical samples of patients.

Navigating ambiguity: A novel neutrosophic cubic shapley normalized weighted Bonferroni Mean aggregation operator with application in the investment environment.

The Neutrosophic Cubic Shapley Normalized Bonferroni (NC-SNWBM) method represents a cutting-edge approach to decision making theory, combining three distinct mathematical frameworks the neutrosophic cubic sets (NCS), Shapley values, and the Bonferroni aggregation operator. This innovative method addresses the challenges posed by uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision in decision-making (DM) processes, offering a comprehensive and versatile tool for handling complex and dynamic scenarios. Neutrosophic cubic sets offers a strong platform to handle ambiguous and vague data due to three components Membership Grade (MG), Non-Membership Grade (NMG) and Indeterminancy Grade (IG) in data. By adding Shapley Fuzzy Measures (SFM), which come from cooperative game theory, distribute values among cooperative agents equally and to account for each agent's contributions to all potential coalitions. The Bonferroni aggregation operator-a statistical aggregative tool that regulates the likelihood of many types in error in statistical tests and the interdependence of the input arguments by allowing different values to parameters involved. These values are further improved by normalization in the framework of the NC-SNWBM approach in order to consider the various degrees of impact that agents exert in various circumstances. This operator is smoothly combined with normalized Shapley values and neutrosophic cubic sets in the NC-SNWBM approach to enable the aggregation of data with different levels of imprecision and uncertainty from various sources using NCS. The MG, NMG and IG connected to NCS are important elements of the NC-SNWBM approach. To evaluate each element's contribution to the overall value distribution SFM are used, and the Bonferroni aggregation operator maintains a careful balance between conservatism and significance. Together, these components provide a thorough framework that successfully tackles the problems caused by ambiguity, imprecision, and uncertainty in scenarios involving decision-making. The NC-SNWBM operator is applied to a numerical problem as an application in investment environment and sensitive and comparative analysis are conducted. The recommendation based on sensitive and comparative analysis proposed.

Automated detection and classification of polioviruses from nanopore sequencing reads using piranha.

Widespread surveillance, rapid detection, and appropriate intervention will be critical for successful eradication of poliovirus. Using deployable next-generation sequencing (NGS) approaches, such as Oxford Nanopore Technologies' MinION, the time from sample to result can be significantly reduced compared to cell culture and Sanger sequencing. We developed piranha (poliovirus investigation resource automating nanopore haplotype analysis), a 'sequencing reads-to-report' solution to aid routine poliovirus testing of both stool and environmental samples and alleviate the bioinformatic bottleneck that often exists for laboratories adopting novel NGS approaches. Piranha can be used for efficient intratypic differentiation of poliovirus serotypes, for classification of Sabin-like polioviruses, and for detection of wild-type and vaccine-derived polioviruses. It produces interactive, distributable reports, as well as summary comma-separated values files and consensus poliovirus FASTA sequences. Piranha optionally provides phylogenetic analysis, with the ability to incorporate a local database, processing from raw sequencing reads to an interactive, annotated phylogeny in a single step. The reports describe each nanopore sequencing run with interpretable plots, enabling researchers to easily detect the presence of poliovirus in samples and quickly disseminate their results. Poliovirus eradication efforts are hindered by the lack of real-time detection and reporting, and piranha can be used to complement direct detection sequencing approaches.

Genetic analysis and epidemiology of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic fever viruses in Baluchistan province of Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan is considered as an endemic country for Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic fever with numerous outbreaks and sporadic cases reported during the past two decades. Majority of cases are reported from Baluchistan province with subsequent transmissions to non-endemic regions mainly through infected animals directly or via infested ticks. We hereby describe the molecular investigations of CCHF cases reported during 2008 in Quetta city of Baluchistan province. METHODS: Serum Samples from 44 patients, with clinical signs of hemorrhagic fever attending a tertiary care hospital in Quetta city, were collected and tested for CCHF virus antigen and genomic RNA, using capture IgM EIA kit and standard RT-PCR assay, respectively. The partial S-gene fragments were directly sequenced to get information related to the prevailing CCHFV genotypes and their molecular epidemiology in Pakistan. RESULTS: Out of the total forty four, sixteen (36%) samples were found positive for CCHF IgM. Similarly, viral RNA was detected in six (16%) samples. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that all study viruses belong to genotype Asia-1 with closest similarity (99-100%) to the previously reported strains from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. CONCLUSION: We conclude that CCHF virus remains endemic within Baluchistan and its neighboring regions of Afghanistan warranting a need of incessant surveillance activities.