Risk Factors for Acute Ischemic Stroke Caused by Anterior Large Vessel Occlusion.

Background and Purpose- Accurate prediction of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) caused by anterior large vessel occlusion (LVO) that is amendable to mechanical thrombectomy remains a challenge. We developed and validated a prediction model for anterior circulation LVO stroke using past medical history elements present on admission and neurological examination. Methods- We retrospectively reviewed AIS patients admitted between 2009 and 2017 to 3 hospitals within a large healthcare system in the United States. Patients with occlusions of the internal carotid artery or M1 or M2 segments of the middle cerebral artery were randomly split into 2/3 derivation and 1/3 validation cohorts for development of an anterior circulation LVO prediction model and score that was further curtailed for potential use in the prehospital setting. Results- A total of 1654 AIS were reviewed, including 248 (15%) with proximal anterior circulation LVO AIS. In the derivation cohort, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at the time of cerebrovascular imaging, current smoking status, type 2 diabetes mellitus, extracranial carotid, and intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis was significantly associated with anterior circulation LVO stroke. The prehospital score was curtailed to National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, current smoking status, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The areas under the curve for the prediction model, prehospital score, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score alone were 0.796, 0.757, and 0.725 for the derivation cohort and 0.770, 0.689, and 0.665 for the validation cohort, respectively. The Youden index J was 0.46 for a score of >6 with 84.7% sensitivity and 62.0% specificity for the prediction model. Conclusions- Previously reported LVO stroke prediction scores focus solely on elements of the neurological examination. In addition to stroke severity, smoking, diabetes mellitus, extracranial carotid, and intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis were associated with anterior circulation LVO AIS. Although atherosclerotic stenosis may not be known until imaging is obtained, smoking and diabetes mellitus history can be readily obtained in the field and represent important elements of the prehospital score supplementing National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score.

Matrix Gla protein polymorphism rs1800801 associates with recurrence of ischemic stroke.

The MGP single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs1800801 has previously been associated with recurrent ischemic stroke in a Spanish cohort. Here, we tested for association of this SNP with ischemic stroke recurrence in a North American Caucasian cohort. Acute ischemic stroke patients admitted between 10/2009 and 12/2016 at three hospitals within a large healthcare system in the northeastern United States that were enrolled in a healthcare system-wide exome sequencing program were retrospectively reviewed. Patients with recurrent stroke within 1 year after index event were compared to those without recurrence. Of 9,348 suspected acute ischemic strokes admitted between 10/2009 and 12/2016, 1,727 (18.5%) enrolled in the exome-sequencing program. Among those, 1,068 patients had exome sequencing completed and were eligible for inclusion. Recurrent stroke within the first year of stroke was observed in 79 patients (7.4%). In multivariable analysis, stroke prior to the index stroke (OR 9.694, 95% CI 5.793-16.224, p ≤ 0.001), pro-coagulant status (OR = 3.563, 95% CI 1.504-8.443, p = 0.004) and the AA genotype of SNP rs1800801 (OR = 2.408, 95% CI 1.079-4.389, p = 0.004) were independently associated with recurrent stroke within the first year. The AA genotype of the MGP SNP rs1800801 is associated with recurrence within the first year after ischemic stroke in North American Caucasians. Study of stroke subtypes and additional populations will be required to determine if incorporation of allelic status at this SNP into current risk scores improves prediction of recurrent ischemic stroke.