Genome-wide cell-free DNA fragmentation in patients with cancer.

Cell-free DNA in the blood provides a non-invasive diagnostic avenue for patients with cancer1. However, characteristics of the origins and molecular features of cell-free DNA are poorly understood. Here we developed an approach to evaluate fragmentation patterns of cell-free DNA across the genome, and found that profiles of healthy individuals reflected nucleosomal patterns of white blood cells, whereas patients with cancer had altered fragmentation profiles. We used this method to analyse the fragmentation profiles of 236 patients with breast, colorectal, lung, ovarian, pancreatic, gastric or bile duct cancer and 245 healthy individuals. A machine learning model that incorporated genome-wide fragmentation features had sensitivities of detection ranging from 57% to more than 99% among the seven cancer types at 98% specificity, with an overall area under the curve value of 0.94. Fragmentation profiles could be used to identify the tissue of origin of the cancers to a limited number of sites in 75% of cases. Combining our approach with mutation-based cell-free DNA analyses detected 91% of patients with cancer. The results of these analyses highlight important properties of cell-free DNA and provide a proof-of-principle approach for the screening, early detection and monitoring of human cancer.

Associations between low- and high-fat dairy intake and recurrence risk in people with stage I-III colorectal cancer differ by sex and primary tumour location.

We previously demonstrated that intake of low-fat dairy, but not high-fat dairy, was associated with a decreased colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence risk. These risks, however, may differ by sex, primary tumour location, and disease stage. Combining data from two similar prospective cohort studies of people with stage I-III CRC enabled these subgroup analyses. Participants completed a food frequency questionnaire at diagnosis (n = 2283). We examined associations between low- and high-fat dairy intake and recurrence risk using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, stratified by sex, and primary tumour location (colon and rectum), and disease stage (I/II and III). Upper quartiles were compared to lower quartiles of intake, and recurrence was defined as a locoregional recurrence and/or metastasis. During a median follow-up of 5.0 years, 331 recurrences were detected. A higher intake of low-fat dairy was associated with a reduced risk of recurrence (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43-0.83), which seemed more pronounced in men (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.34-0.77) than in women (HR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.47-1.49). A higher intake of high-fat dairy was associated with an increased risk of recurrence in participants with colon cancer (HR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.03-2.50), but not rectal cancer (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.54-1.45). No differences in associations were observed between strata of disease stage. Concluding, our findings imply that dietary advice regarding low-fat dairy intake may be especially important for men with CRC, and that dietary advice regarding high-fat dairy intake may be specifically important in people with colon cancer.

Stromal localization of inactive CD8+ T cells in metastatic mismatch repair deficient colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The determinants of metastasis in mismatch repair deficiency with high levels of microsatellite instability (MSI-H) in colorectal cancer (CRC) are poorly understood. Here, we hypothesized that distinct immune and stromal microenvironments in primary tumors may discriminate between non-metastatic MSI-H CRC and metastatic MSI-H CRC. METHODS: We profiled 46,727 single cells using high-plex imaging mass cytometry and analyzed both differential cell type abundance, and spatial distribution of fibroblasts and immune cells in primary CRC tumors with or without metastatic capacity. We validated our findings in a second independent cohort using immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: High-plex imaging mass cytometry and hierarchical clustering based on microenvironmental markers separated primary MSI-H CRC tumors with and without metastatic capacity. Primary tumors with metastatic capacity displayed a high stromal content and low influx of CD8+ T cells, which expressed significantly lower levels of markers reflecting proliferation (Ki67) and antigen-experience (CD45RO) compared to CD8+ T cells in non-metastatic tumors. CD8+ T cells showed intra-epithelial localization in non-metastatic tumors, but stromal localization in metastatic tumors, which was validated in a second cohort. CONCLUSION: We conclude that localization of phenotypically distinct CD8+ T cells within stroma may predict metastasis formation in MSI-H CRC.

Efficacy-effectiveness analysis on survival in a population-based real-world study of BRAF-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with encorafenib-cetuximab.

BACKGROUND: Encorafenib-cetuximab has been approved for pretreated BRAFV600E-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients based on efficacy demonstrated in the randomized phase III BEACON trial. The aim of this real-world effectiveness study is to improve knowledge on the generalizability of trial results. METHODS: This population-based real-world study includes all mCRC patients in the Netherlands treated with encorafenib-cetuximab since approval. Individual patient data and pathology reports were collected. Overall survival (OS) was compared to BEACON and subgroup analyses were conducted for patients who would have been eligible and ineligible for BEACON. RESULTS: 166 patients were included with a median follow-up time of 14.5 months. Median OS was 6.7 months (95% CI:6.0-8.3) and differed from BEACON (9.3 months; 95% CI:8.0-11.3, p-value 0.002). Thirty-six percent of real-world patients would have been ineligible for the BEACON trial. Trial ineligible subgroups with symptomatic brain metastases and WHO performance status ≥2 had the poorest median OS of 5.0 months (95% CI:4.0-NR) and 3.9 months (95% CI:2.4-NR). CONCLUSION: This real-world cohort of mCRC patients treated with encorafenib-cetuximab showed a clinically relevant efficacy-effectiveness gap for OS. The chance of survival benefit from encorafenib-cetuximab in patients with brain metastases and/or WHO performance status ≥2 is negligible as neither efficacy nor effectiveness has been demonstrated.

Lymphatic Invasion of Plakoglobin-Dependent Tumor Cell Clusters Drives Formation of Polyclonal Lung Metastases in Colon Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with colon cancer with liver metastases may be cured with surgery, but the presence of additional lung metastases often precludes curative treatment. Little is known about the processes driving lung metastasis. This study aimed to elucidate the mechanisms governing lung vs liver metastasis formation. METHODS: Patient-derived organoid (PDO) cultures were established from colon tumors with distinct patterns of metastasis. Mouse models recapitulating metastatic organotropism were created by implanting PDOs into the cecum wall. Optical barcoding was applied to trace the origin and clonal composition of liver and lung metastases. RNA sequencing and immunohistochemistry were used to identify candidate determinants of metastatic organotropism. Genetic, pharmacologic, in vitro, and in vivo modeling strategies identified essential steps in lung metastasis formation. Validation was performed by analyzing patient-derived tissues. RESULTS: Cecum transplantation of 3 distinct PDOs yielded models with distinct metastatic organotropism: liver only, lung only, and liver and lung. Liver metastases were seeded by single cells derived from select clones. Lung metastases were seeded by polyclonal clusters of tumor cells entering the lymphatic vasculature with very limited clonal selection. Lung-specific metastasis was associated with high expression of desmosome markers, including plakoglobin. Plakoglobin deletion abrogated tumor cell cluster formation, lymphatic invasion, and lung metastasis formation. Pharmacologic inhibition of lymphangiogenesis attenuated lung metastasis formation. Primary human colon, rectum, esophagus, and stomach tumors with lung metastases had a higher N-stage and more plakoglobin-expressing intra-lymphatic tumor cell clusters than those without lung metastases. CONCLUSIONS: Lung and liver metastasis formation are fundamentally distinct processes with different evolutionary bottlenecks, seeding entities, and anatomic routing. Polyclonal lung metastases originate from plakoglobin-dependent tumor cell clusters entering the lymphatic vasculature at the primary tumor site.

Oncologic outcomes of screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 colorectal cancers.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) has increased with the implementation of CRC screening programs. It is unknown whether the outcomes and risk models for T1 CRC based on non-screen-detected patients can be extrapolated to screen-detected T1 CRC. This study aimed to compare the stage distribution and oncologic outcomes of T1 CRC patients within and outside the screening program. METHODS: Data from T1 CRC patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2017 were collected from 12 hospitals in the Netherlands. The presence of lymph node metastasis (LNM) at diagnosis was compared between screen-detected and non-screen-detected patients using multivariable logistic regression. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to analyze differences in the time to recurrence (TTR), metastasis-free survival (MFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival. Additionally, the performance of conventional risk factors for LNM was evaluated across the groups. RESULTS: 1803 patients were included (1114 [62%] screen-detected), with median follow-up of 51 months (interquartile range 30). The proportion of LNM did not significantly differ between screen- and non-screen-detected patients (12.6% vs. 8.9%; odds ratio 1.41; 95%CI 0.89-2.23); a prediction model for LNM performed equally in both groups. The 3- and 5-year TTR, MFS, and CSS were similar for patients within and outside the screening program. However, overall survival was significantly longer in screen-detected T1 CRC patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.51; 95%CI 0.38-0.68). CONCLUSIONS: Screen-detected and non-screen-detected T1 CRCs have similar stage distributions and oncologic outcomes and can therefore be treated equally. However, screen-detected T1 CRC patients exhibit a lower rate of non-CRC-related mortality, resulting in longer overall survival.

Harnessing the Potential of Real-World Evidence in the Treatment of Colorectal Cancer: Where Do We Stand?

OPINION STATEMENT: Treatment guidelines for colorectal cancer (CRC) are primarily based on the results of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), the gold standard methodology to evaluate safety and efficacy of oncological treatments. However, generalizability of trial results is often limited due to stringent eligibility criteria, underrepresentation of specific populations, and more heterogeneity in clinical practice. This may result in an efficacy-effectiveness gap and uncertainty regarding meaningful benefit versus treatment harm. Meanwhile, conduct of traditional RCTs has become increasingly challenging due to identification of a growing number of (small) molecular subtypes. These challenges-combined with the digitalization of health records-have led to growing interest in use of real-world data (RWD) to complement evidence from RCTs. RWD is used to evaluate epidemiological trends, quality of care, treatment effectiveness, long-term (rare) safety, and quality of life (QoL) measures. In addition, RWD is increasingly considered in decision-making by clinicians, regulators, and payers. In this narrative review, we elaborate on these applications in CRC, and provide illustrative examples. As long as the quality of RWD is safeguarded, ongoing developments, such as common data models, federated learning, and predictive modelling, will further unfold its potential. First, whenever possible, we recommend conducting pragmatic trials, such as registry-based RCTs, to optimize generalizability and answer clinical questions that are not addressed in registrational trials. Second, we argue that marketing approval should be conditional for patients who would have been ineligible for the registrational trial, awaiting planned (non) randomized evaluation of outcomes in the real world. Third, high-quality effectiveness results should be incorporated in treatment guidelines to aid in patient counseling. We believe that a coordinated effort from all stakeholders is essential to improve the quality of RWD, create a learning healthcare system with optimal use of trials and real-world evidence (RWE), and ultimately ensure personalized care for every CRC patient.

Time-varying prognostic value of primary tumor sidedness in metastatic colorectal cancer: A population-based study and meta-analysis.

We studied the prognostic value of primary tumor sidedness in metastatic colorectal cancer over time and across treatment lines. Population data on synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer patients were extracted from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and SEER database. Pubmed, EMBASE and Cochrane library were searched for prospective studies on metastatic colorectal cancer to conduct a meta-analysis. Inclusion criteria consisted of metastatic disease, systemic treatment with palliative intent and specification of primary tumor location. Data were pooled using a random-effects model. For the population-based data, multivariable Cox models were constructed. The Grambsch-Therneau test was conducted to evaluate the potential time-varying nature of sidedness. Meta-regression incorporating treatment-line as variable was conducted to test the pre-specified hypothesis that the prognostic value of sidedness varies over time. Analysis of 12 885 and 16 160 synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer patients registered in the Netherlands Cancer Registry and SEER database, respectively, indicated a time-varying prognostic value of sidedness (P < .01). Thirty-one studies were selected for the meta-analysis (9558 patients for overall survival analysis). Pooled univariable hazard ratioleft-sided/right-sided for overall survival was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.76) in 1st-line, 0.76 (0.54-1.06) in 2nd-line and 1.01 (0.86-1.19) in 3rd-line studies. Hazard ratios were significantly influenced by treatment line (P = .035). The prognostic value of sidedness of the primary tumor in metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with palliative systemic therapy decreases over time since diagnosis, suggesting that sidedness may not be a useful stratification factor in late-line trials. This decrease in prognostic value should be taken into account when providing prognostic information to patients.

Survival of Patients with Deficient Mismatch Repair Versus Proficient Mismatch Repair Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Receiving Curative-Intent Local Treatment of Metastases in a Nationwide Cohort.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether curative-intent local therapy of metastases is of similar benefit for the biological distinct subgroup of patients with deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) compared with proficient mismatch repair (pMMR) mCRC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this nationwide study, recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed in patients with dMMR versus pMMR mCRC who underwent curative-intent local treatment of metastases between 2015 and 2018. Subgroup analyses were performed for resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) and cytoreductive surgery ± hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS ± HIPEC). Multivariable regression was conducted. RESULTS: Median RFS was 11.1 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.5-41.1 months] for patients with dMMR tumors compared with 8.9 months (95% CI 8.1-9.8 months) for pMMR tumors. Two-year RFS was higher in patients with dMMR versus pMMR (43% vs. 21%). Results were similar within subgroups of local treatment (CRLM and CRS ± HIPEC). Characteristics differed significantly between patients with dMMR and pMMR mCRC; however, multivariable analysis continued to demonstrate dMMR as independent factor for improved RFS [hazard ratio (HR): 0.57, 95% CI 0.38-0.87]. Median OS was 33.3 months for dMMR mCRC compared with 43.5 months for pMMR mCRC, mainly due to poor survival of patients with dMMR in cases of recurrence in the preimmunotherapy era. CONCLUSION: Patients with dMMR eligible for curative-intent local treatment of metastases showed a comparable to more favorable RFS compared with patients with pMMR, with a clinically relevant proportion of patients remaining free of recurrence. This supports local treatment as a valuable treatment option in patients with dMMR mCRC and can aid in shared decision-making regarding upfront local therapy versus immunotherapy.

Predicting early extrahepatic recurrence after local treatment of colorectal liver metastases.

BACKGROUND: Patients who develop early extrahepatic recurrence (EHR) may not benefit from local treatment of colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs). This study aimed to develop a prediction model for early EHR after local treatment of CRLMs using a national data set. METHODS: A Cox regression prediction model for EHR was developed and validated internally using data on patients who had local treatment for CRLMs with curative intent. Performance assessment included calibration, discrimination, net benefit, and generalizability by internal-external cross-validation. The prognostic relevance of early EHR (within 6 months) was evaluated by landmark analysis. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 35 months, 557 of the 1077 patients had EHR and 249 died. Median overall survival was 19.5 (95 per cent c.i. 15.6 to 23.0) months in patients with early EHR after CRLM treatment, compared with not reached (45.3 months to not reached) in patients without an early EHR. The EHR prediction model included side and stage of the primary tumour, RAS/BRAFV600E mutational status, and number and size of CRLMs. The range of 6-month EHR predictions was 5.9-56.0 (i.q.r. 12.9-22.0) per cent. The model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination. The C-index through 6 and 12 months was 0.663 (95 per cent c.i. 0.624 to 0.702) and 0.661 (0.632 to 0.689) respectively. The observed 6-month EHR risk was 6.5 per cent for patients in the lowest quartile of predicted risk compared with 32.0 per cent in the highest quartile. CONCLUSION: Early EHR after local treatment of CRLMs can be predicted.

Work Ability in Patients With Stage I to IV Colon Cancer: Results of the Dutch Prospective Colorectal Cancer Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Colon cancer affects a patient's ability to work. Many patients who have colon cancer are employed at the time of diagnosis. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated work ability during the first 2 years after colon cancer diagnosis. DESIGN: This study is a national prospective study, the Prospective Dutch ColoRectal Cancer cohort, including clinical data and patient-reported outcomes. SETTINGS: Data were collected in 59 medical centers in the Netherlands. PATIENTS: Patients <67 years of age with stage I to IV colon cancer and who completed Work Ability Index questionnaires were selected. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Work ability was assessed at baseline, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. The Work Ability Index (range, 0 to 49) was evaluated using linear mixed models. Outcomes were matched to population controls without cancer. RESULTS: Of 390 patients, 84% had paid employment. Work ability of patients with stage I to IV colon cancer was significantly lower at the time of diagnosis than in matched population controls (31 ± 8.2 and 41 ± 5.6). Patients with stage I to III disease receiving surgery only regained Work Ability Index scores comparable to matched population controls at 18 months. Patients receiving adjuvant systemic treatment initially demonstrated a decrease in work ability with improvements from 6 months onward and normalization at 24 months. Patients with stage IV disease did not demonstrate improvements in work ability outcomes over time. Work ability scores were negatively influenced by the administration of systemic treatment and ≥1 comorbidities. LIMITATIONS: Only patients with patient-reported outcomes and work at baseline were included in this analysis. Also, questionnaire response rates decreased over time. CONCLUSIONS: Work ability in patients with colon cancer is decreased for a prolonged time. Recovery depends on disease stage, type of treatment, and comorbidities. Patients with stage I to III disease treated with curative surgery alone were the first to regain work ability, followed by patients who receive adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients with stage IV disease did not regain work ability. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B759 . CAPACIDAD LABORAL EN PACIENTES CON CNCER DE COLON EN ESTADIO IIV RESULTADOS PROSPECTIVOS DE CNCER COLORECTAL EN UNA COHORTE HOLANDESA: ANTECEDENTES:El cáncer de colon afecta la capacidad de trabajo en un paciente. Muchos pacientes con cáncer de colon están empleados en el momento del diagnóstico.OBJETIVO:Evaluamos la capacidad laboral durante los dos primeros años posteriores al diagnóstico de cáncer de colon.DISEÑO:Es un estudio prospectivo nacional, la cohorte de cáncer colorrectal holandés, incluye datos clínicos y resultados informados por los pacientes.ENTORNO CLINICO:Se recopilaron datos de 59 centros médicos en los Países Bajos.PACIENTES:Se seleccionaron pacientes < 67 años, con cáncer de colon en estadio I-IV, que completaron los cuestionarios de índice de capacidad para el trabajo.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE VALORACIÓN:La capacidad para el trabajo se evaluó al inicio, a los 3, 6, 12, 18 y 24 meses. El índice de capacidad para el trabajo (que va de 0 a 49) se evaluó mediante modelos lineales mixtos. Los resultados fueron comparados con el grupo control sin cáncer.RESULTADOS:De 390 pacientes, el 84% tenía un empleo remunerado. La capacidad de trabajo de los pacientes en estadio I-IV fue significativamente menor en el momento del diagnóstico en comparación con el grupo control (31 ± 8,2 y 41 ± 5,6, respectivamente). Los pacientes con enfermedad en estadio I-III que recibieron cirugía lograron recuperar puntajes del índice de capacidad laboral comparables a los controles a los 18 meses. Los pacientes que recibieron tratamiento sistémico adyuvante inicialmente demostraron una disminución en la capacidad de trabajo con mejoras a partir de los 6 meses en adelante y una normalización a los 24 meses. Los pacientes en estadio IV no demostraron mejoras en los resultados de la capacidad laboral a lo largo del tiempo. Las puntuaciones de capacidad para el trabajo se vieron influidas negativamente por la administración del tratamiento sistémico y la existencia de ≥1 comorbilidades.LIMITACIONES:En este análisis solo se incluyeron los pacientes con resultados y trabajo desde el inicio del estudio. Además, las tasas de respuesta al cuestionario disminuyeron con el tiempo.CONCLUSIONES:La capacidad de trabajo en pacientes con cáncer de colon se reduce durante un tiempo prolongado. La recuperación depende del estadio de la enfermedad, el tipo de tratamiento y la comorbilidad. Los pacientes con enfermedad en estadio I-III tratados con cirugía curativa exclusivamente, son los primeros en recuperar la capacidad para trabajar, seguidos de los pacientes que reciben quimioterapia adyuvante. Los pacientes con enfermedad en estadio IV no recuperan la capacidad para trabajar. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B759 . (Traducción- Dr. Ingrid Melo ).

The Trial within Cohorts (TwiCs) study design in oncology: experience and methodological reflections.

A Trial within Cohorts (TwiCs) study design is a trial design that uses the infrastructure of an observational cohort study to initiate a randomized trial. Upon cohort enrollment, the participants provide consent for being randomized in future studies without being informed. Once a new treatment is available, eligible cohort participants are randomly assigned to the treatment or standard of care. Patients randomized to the treatment arm are offered the new treatment, which they can choose to refuse. Patients who refuse will receive standard of care instead. Patients randomized to the standard of care arm receive no information about the trial and continue receiving standard of care as part of the cohort study. Standard cohort measures are used for outcome comparisons. The TwiCs study design aims to overcome some issues encountered in standard Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs). An example of an issue in standard RCTs is the slow patient accrual. A TwiCs study aims to improve this by selecting patients using a cohort and only offering the intervention to patients in the intervention arm. In oncology, the TwiCs study design has gained increasing interest during the last decade. Despite its potential advantages over RCTs, the TwiCs study design has several methodological challenges that need careful consideration when planning a TwiCs study. In this article, we focus on these challenges and reflect on them using experiences from TwiCs studies initiated in oncology. Important methodological challenges that are discussed are the timing of randomization, the issue of non-compliance (refusal) after randomization in the intervention arm, and the definition of the intention-to-treat effect in a TwiCs study and how this effect is related to its counterpart in standard RCTs.

Translation of IDEA trial results into clinical practice: Analysis of the implementation of a new guideline for colon cancer.

The IDEA trial showed no clinical relevant differences in efficacy between 3 and 6 months of oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in colon cancer (CC), while toxicity was substantially lower in the 3 months regimen. Therefore, in 2017 the Dutch colorectal cancer guideline was revised and currently recommends 3 months of oxaliplatin-based ACT. Furthermore, the definition of high-risk stage II CC was restricted to pT4 tumors. We analyzed changes in ACT between 2015 and 2019. From the Netherlands Cancer Registry all 16 721 patients ≥18 years with resected high-risk stage II and stage III CC during 2015 to 2019 were selected. Differences in patient and treatment characteristics were analyzed per calendar year according to stage and age. Mean duration of oxaliplatin-based ACT decreased from 18.6 (±8.0) to 9.5 (±3.8) weeks between 2015 and 2019. In patients receiving ACT (n = 8170), the proportion treated with oxaliplatin increased from 74% to 83%. The proportion of patients receiving ACT was stable, 61% to 69% in stage III and 26% to 29% in pT4 stage II. ACT in previous high-risk pT3N0 disease decreased from 15% to 3%. Use of oxaliplatin increased from 27% to 49% in patients aged ≥75 years. The revised guideline was rapidly implemented and led to an increase in oxaliplatin-based ACT in the elderly and increased guideline-adherence in high-risk stage II CC.

Serum-based measurements of stromal activation through ADAM12 associate with poor prognosis in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Recently it has been recognized that stromal markers could be used as a clinically relevant biomarker for therapy response and prognosis. Here, we report on a serum marker for stromal activation, A Disintegrin and Metalloprotease 12 (ADAM12) in colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: Using gene expression databases we investigated ADAM12 expression in CRC and delineated the source of ADAM12 expression. The clinical value of ADAM12 was retrospectively assessed in the CAIRO2 trial in metastatic CRC with 235 patients (31% of total cohort), and an independent rectal cancer cohort (n = 20). RESULTS: ADAM12 is expressed by activated CRC associated fibroblasts. In the CAIRO2 trial cohort, ADAM12 serum levels were prognostic (ADAM12 low versus ADAM12 high; median OS 25.3 vs. 17.1 months, HR 1.48 [95% CI 1.11-1.96], P = 0.007). The prognostic potential was specifically high for metastatic rectal cancer (HR 1.78 [95% CI 1.06-3.00], P = 0.030) and mesenchymal subtype tumors (HR 2.12 [95% CI 1.25-3.60], P = 0.004). ADAM12 also showed potential for predicting recurrence in an exploratory analysis of non-metastatic rectal cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Here we describe a non-invasive marker for activated stroma in CRC which associates with poor outcome, especially for primary cancers located in the rectum.

Comparing Modeling Approaches for Discrete Event Simulations With Competing Risks Based on Censored Individual Patient Data: A Simulation Study and Illustration in Colorectal Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to provide detailed guidance on modeling approaches for implementing competing events in discrete event simulations based on censored individual patient data (IPD). METHODS: The event-specific distributions (ESDs) approach sampled times from event-specific time-to-event distributions and simulated the first event to occur. The unimodal distribution and regression approach sampled a time from a combined unimodal time-to-event distribution, representing all events, and used a (multinomial) logistic regression model to select the event to be simulated. A simulation study assessed performance in terms of relative absolute event incidence difference and relative entropy of time-to-event distributions for different types and levels of right censoring, numbers of events, distribution overlap, and sample sizes. Differences in cost-effectiveness estimates were illustrated in a colorectal cancer case study. RESULTS: Increased levels of censoring negatively affected the modeling approaches' performance. A lower number of competing events and higher overlap of distributions improved performance. When IPD were censored at random times, ESD performed best. When censoring occurred owing to a maximum follow-up time for 2 events, ESD performed better for a low level of censoring (ie, 10%). For 3 or 4 competing events, ESD better represented the probabilities of events, whereas unimodal distribution and regression better represented the time to events. Differences in cost-effectiveness estimates, both compared with no censoring and between approaches, increased with increasing censoring levels. CONCLUSIONS: Modelers should be aware of the different modeling approaches available and that selection between approaches may be informed by data characteristics. Performing and reporting extensive validation efforts remains essential to ensure IPD are appropriately represented.

External validation of the MSKCC nomogram to estimate five-year overall survival after surgery for stage I-III colon cancer in a Dutch population.

INTRODUCTION: The Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Centre (MSKCC) nomogram has been developed to estimate five-year overall survival (OS) after curative-intent surgery of colon cancer based on age, sex, T stage, differentiation grade, number of positive and examined regional lymph nodes. This is the first evaluation of the performance of the MSKCC model in a European population regarding prediction of OS. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Population-based data from patients with stage I-III colon cancer diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR) for external validation of the MSKCC prediction model. Five-year survival probabilities were estimated for all patients in our dataset by using the MSKCC prediction equation. Histogram density plots were created to depict the distribution of the estimated probability and prognostic index. The performance of the model was evaluated in terms of its overall performance, discrimination, and calibration. RESULTS: A total of 39,805 patients were included. Five-year OS was 71.9% (95% CI 71.5; 72.3) (11,051 events) with a median follow up of 5.6 years (IQR 4.1; 7.7). The Brier score was 0.10 (95% CI 0.10; 0.10). The C-index was 0.75 (95% CI 0.75; 0.76). The calibration measures and plot indicated that the model slightly overestimated observed mortality (observed/expected ratio = 0.86 [95% CI 0.86; 0.87], calibration intercept = -0.14 [95% CI -0.16; -0.11], and slope 1.07 [95% CI 1.05; 1.09], ICI = 0.04, E50 = 0.04, and E90 = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The external validation of the MSKCC prediction nomogram in a large Dutch cohort supports the use of this practical tool in the European patient population. These personalised estimated survival probabilities may support clinicians when informing patients about prognosis. Adding potential relevant prognostic factors to the model, such as primary tumour location, might further improve the model.

Rationale and design of the PROMETCO study: a real-world, prospective, longitudinal cohort on the continuum of care of metastatic colorectal cancer from a clinical and patient perspective.

The PROMETCO study is collecting real-world data on metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients with two progressions. This international, prospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study is collecting data on mCRC patients with two disease progressions since diagnosis and receiving subsequent treatment. Objectives include overall survival, treatment patterns, effectiveness and safety and patient-reported outcomes using the EuroQol 5-level, 5-dimensional questionnaire, the Brief Fatigue Inventory and a modified version of the ACCEPTance by the Patients of their Treatment (ACCEPT©) questionnaire. Data are collected retrospectively and prospectively up to 18 months. As of 13 October 2021, 544 patients from 18 countries had been enrolled. To the authors' knowledge, PROMETCO is the first international, real-world study of the continuum of care of mCRC patients in this setting. Trial registration number: NCT03935763 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

Evaluation of an individual feedback report on patient-reported outcomes in the Prospective Dutch ColoRectal Cancer cohort.

PURPOSE: Returning patient-reported outcomes to patients might aid patients in detecting symptoms and might facilitate early intervention. This descriptive study evaluates the use of an individual feedback report on patient-reported outcomes for colorectal cancer patients and aims to assess differences in patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics and cohort retention between patients who opt and do not opt for the feedback report. METHODS: Patients with colorectal cancer participating in the nationwide Prospective Dutch ColoRectal Cancer Cohort, who filled in questionnaires digitally between June 2018 and January 2019, were included. Participants were given the option to receive a feedback report at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months. The usefulness, content, and layout of the feedback report were evaluated. Differences in patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics, patient-reported outcomes, and cohort retention at subsequent questionnaires between participants who did and did not opt for feedback were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 484 participants were included of whom 293 (61%) opted for feedback. The feedback report was considered useful by 92%. No differences in patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics, and patient-reported outcomes were found between participants who did and did not opt for feedback. The response rate was higher among patients who opted for feedback compared to patients who did not opt for feedback at T3 (84 vs 74%), but not at T6 and T12. CONCLUSION: The feedback report was used by 6 out of 10 patients. The feedback report was considered valuable and associated with a higher subsequent response rate.

Informing metastatic colorectal cancer patients by quantifying multiple scenarios for survival time based on real-life data.

Reported median overall survival (mOS) in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients participating in systemic therapy trials has increased to over 30 months. It is uncertain whether trial results translate to real-life populations. Moreover, patients prefer presentation of multiple survival scenarios. Population-based data of all stage IV CRC patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2016 were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry, which has a case ascertainment completeness surpassing 95%. We calculated the following percentiles (scenarios) of OS per year of diagnosis for the total population, and for treatment subgroups: 10th (best-case), 25th (upper-typical), 50th (median), 75th (lower-typical) and 90th (worst-case). Twenty-five percent of patients did not receive any antitumor treatment. From 2008 to 2016, mOS of the total population (n = 27275) remained unchanged at approximately 12 months. OS improved only for the upper-typical and best-case patients; by 4.2 to 29.1 months (P < .001), and by 6 to 62 months (P < .001), respectively. No clinically relevant change was observed among patients who received systemic therapy, with mOS close to 15 months and best-case scenario approximately 40 months. A clinically relevant improvement in survival over time was observed in patients who initially received metastasectomy and/or HIPEC only. In contrast to the wide belief based on trial data that mOS of mCRC patients receiving systemic therapy has improved substantially, improvement could not be demonstrated in our real-life population. Clinicians should consider quoting multiple survival scenarios based on real-life data instead of point estimates from clinical trials, when informing patients about their life expectancy.

Longitudinal effects of adjuvant chemotherapy and related neuropathy on health utility in stage II and III colon cancer patients: A prospective cohort study.

Patient's quality of life should be included in clinical decision making regarding the administration of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in stage II/III colon cancer. Therefore, quality of life, summarized as health utility (HU), was evaluated for patients treated with and without ACT. Furthermore, the role of chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) on HU was evaluated. Patients diagnosed with stage II/III colon cancer between 2011 and 2019 and participating in the Prospective Dutch ColoRectal Cancer cohort were included (n = 914). HU scores were assessed with the EQ-5D-5L at baseline, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Patients treated with ACT received mainly capecitabine and oxaliplatin (57%) or capecitabine monotherapy (40%) (average duration: 3.5 months). HU 3 to 18 months after diagnosis (potential ACT period + 12 months follow-up) was compared between patients treated with and without ACT using a mixed model adjusted for age, sex and education level. Subsequently, the CIPN sensory, motor and autonomy scales, measured using the EORTC QLQ-CIPN20, were independently included in the model to evaluate the impact of neuropathy. Using a mixed model, a significant difference of -0.039 (95% confidence interval: -0.062; -0.015) in HU was found between patients treated with and without ACT. Including the CIPN sensory, motor and autonomy scales decreased the difference with 0.019, 0.015 and 0.02, respectively. HU 3 to 18 months after diagnosis is significantly lower in patients treated with ACT vs without ACT. This difference is on the boundary of clinical relevance and appears to be partly related to the sensory and motor neuropathy-related side effects of ACT.