Trends in the use of home care services among Norwegians 70+ and projections towards 2050: The HUNT study 1995-2017.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy (LE) is increasing worldwide, while there is lack of information on how this affects older individuals' use of formal home care services. AIM: We aimed to decompose LE into years with and without home care services and estimate projected number of users towards 2050 in Norway for people 70 years or older. METHODS: This study is based on a sample of 25,536 participants aged 70 years and older in the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) survey 2 (1995-1997), 3 (2006-2008), or 4 (2017-2019) linked with national data on mortality. Prevalence of home care services was standardised to the Norwegian population by age and sex. The Sullivan method was used to estimate expected years with and without home help services and nursing services for the years 1995, 2006 and 2016. Data from HUNT4 and Statistics Norway were used to estimate projected use of these services between 2020 and 2050. RESULTS: During 1995-2017, the use of home help services decreased from 22.6% to 6.2% (p < 0.001), and from 6.4% to 5.5% (p = 0.004) for home nursing services. Adjusted for age and sex, the use of home help services decreased significantly over time (p < 0.001), while home nursing services were stable (p = 0.69). LE at age 70 increased from 11.9 to 15.3 years in men (p < 0.05) during 1995-2017, and from 14.7 to 17.1 in women (p < 0.05). In the same period, the expected years receiving home help decreased from 2.6 to 1.1 in men (p < 0.05), and from 4.4 to 2.1 in women (p < 0.05). The expected years receiving home nursing increased from 0.6 to 0.9 in men (p < 0.05), and from 1.3 to 1.7 in women (p < 0.05). Projected numbers of people 70+ in Norway in need of either of these services were estimated to rise from 64,000 in 2020 to 160,000 in 2050. CONCLUSION: While overall life expectancy increased, the expected years receiving home help have decreased and home nursing slightly increased among the Norwegian population aged 70 years and older during 1995-2017. However, the substantial increase in the projected number of older adults using home care services in the future is an alert for the current health care planners.

Cohort profile: the Health and Memory Study (HMS): a dementia cohort linked to the HUNT study in Norway.

The aim of the Health and Memory Study (HMS) of Nord-Trøndelag, Norway, was primarily to establish a database suitable as basis for a large number of studies on dementia. Data from the HMS study were collected via questionnaires and examinations during the period from 1995 to 2011. The dementia panel consists of 620 participants residing in nursing homes and 920 participants referred to memory clinics of Nord-Trøndelag. Data from this dementia panel may be linked to the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (the HUNT study), three large population based health surveys that took place in 1984-86 (HUNT1), 1995-97 (HUNT2) and 2006-08 (HUNT3). Data collection is complete and the participation rate in the HUNT1 for patients diagnosed with dementia was 86%. The sub-studies in the HMS are focused on examining risk factors, caregiver burden, healthcare consumption and economic consequences of treating and having dementia. Researchers interested in the HMS study are invited to contact HUNT at hunt@medisin.ntnu.no.