High-Sensitivity Troponin I after Cardiac Surgery and 30-Day Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Consensus recommendations regarding the threshold levels of cardiac troponin elevations for the definition of perioperative myocardial infarction and clinically important periprocedural myocardial injury in patients undergoing cardiac surgery range widely (from >10 times to ≥70 times the upper reference limit for the assay). Limited evidence is available to support these recommendations. METHODS: We undertook an international prospective cohort study involving patients 18 years of age or older who underwent cardiac surgery. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurements (upper reference limit, 26 ng per liter) were obtained 3 to 12 hours after surgery and on days 1, 2, and 3 after surgery. We performed Cox analyses using a regression spline that explored the relationship between peak troponin measurements and 30-day mortality, adjusting for scores on the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (which estimates the risk of death after cardiac surgery on the basis of 18 variables, including age and sex). RESULTS: Of 13,862 patients included in the study, 296 (2.1%) died within 30 days after surgery. Among patients who underwent isolated coronary-artery bypass grafting or aortic-valve replacement or repair, the threshold troponin level, measured within 1 day after surgery, that was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of more than 1.00 for death within 30 days was 5670 ng per liter (95% confidence interval [CI], 1045 to 8260), a level 218 times the upper reference limit. Among patients who underwent other cardiac surgery, the corresponding threshold troponin level was 12,981 ng per liter (95% CI, 2673 to 16,591), a level 499 times the upper reference limit. CONCLUSIONS: The levels of high-sensitivity troponin I after cardiac surgery that were associated with an increased risk of death within 30 days were substantially higher than levels currently recommended to define clinically important periprocedural myocardial injury. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; VISION Cardiac Surgery ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01842568.).

Evaluation of Biomarkers in Critical Care and Perioperative Medicine: A Clinician's Overview of Traditional Statistical Methods and Machine Learning Algorithms

Interest in developing and using novel biomarkers in critical care and perioperative medicine is increasing. Biomarkers studies are often presented with flaws in the statistical analysis that preclude them from providing a scientifically valid and clinically relevant message for clinicians. To improve scientific rigor, the proper application and reporting of traditional and emerging statistical methods (e.g., machine learning) of biomarker studies is required. This Readers' Toolbox article aims to be a starting point to nonexpert readers and investigators to understand traditional and emerging research methods to assess biomarkers in critical care and perioperative medicine.

Preoperative prediction of Bleeding Independently associated with Mortality after noncardiac Surgery (BIMS): an international prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic criteria for Bleeding Independently associated with Mortality after noncardiac Surgery (BIMS) have been defined as bleeding that leads to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L-1, leads to blood transfusion, or is judged to be the direct cause of death. Preoperative prediction guides for BIMS can facilitate informed consent and planning of perioperative care. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study of 16 079 participants aged ≥45 yr having inpatient noncardiac surgery at 12 academic hospitals in eight countries between 2007 and 2011, 17.3% (2782) experienced BIMS. An electronic risk calculator for BIMS was developed and internally validated by logistic regression with bootstrapping, and further simplified to a risk index. Decision curve analysis assessed the potential utility of each prediction guide compared with a strategy of identifying risk of BIMS based on preoperative haemoglobin <120 g L-1. RESULTS: With information about the type of surgery, preoperative haemoglobin, age, sex, functional status, kidney function, history of high-risk coronary artery disease, and active cancer, the risk calculator accurately predicted BIMS (bias-corrected C-statistic, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.837-0.852). A simplified index based on preoperative haemoglobin <120 g L-1, open surgery, and high-risk surgery also predicted BIMS, but less accurately (C-statistic, 0.787; 95% confidence interval, 0.779-0.796). Both prediction guides could improve decision making compared with knowledge of haemoglobin <120 g L-1 alone. CONCLUSIONS: BIMS, defined as bleeding that leads to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L-1, leads to blood transfusion, or that is judged to be the direct cause of death, can be predicted by a simple risk index before surgery. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00512109.

Bleeding Independently associated with Mortality after noncardiac Surgery (BIMS): an international prospective cohort study establishing diagnostic criteria and prognostic importance.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to establish diagnostic criteria for bleeding independently associated with mortality after noncardiac surgery (BIMS) defined as bleeding during or within 30 days after noncardiac surgery that is independently associated with mortality within 30 days of surgery, and to estimate the proportion of 30-day postoperative mortality potentially attributable to BIMS. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of participants ≥45 yr old having inpatient noncardiac surgery at 12 academic hospitals in eight countries between 2007 and 2011. Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the adjusted relationship between candidate diagnostic criteria for BIMS and all-cause mortality within 30 days of surgery. RESULTS: Of 16 079 participants, 2.0% (315) died and 36.1% (5810) met predefined screening criteria for bleeding. Based on independent association with 30-day mortality, BIMS was identified as bleeding leading to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L-1, transfusion of ≥1 unit of red blood cells, or that was judged to be the cause of death. Bleeding independently associated with mortality after noncardiac surgery occurred in 17.3% of patients (2782). Death occurred in 5.8% of patients with BIMS (161/2782), 1.3% (39/3028) who met bleeding screening criteria but not BIMS criteria, and 1.1% (115/10 269) without bleeding. BIMS was associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.42-2.47). We estimated the proportion of 30-day postoperative deaths potentially attributable to BIMS to be 20.1-31.9%. CONCLUSIONS: Bleeding independently associated with mortality after noncardiac surgery (BIMS), defined as bleeding that leads to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L-1, blood transfusion, or that is judged to be the cause of death, is common and may account for a quarter of deaths after noncardiac surgery. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00512109.

Long-term survival of elderly patients after intensive care unit admission for acute respiratory infection: a population-based, propensity score-matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalisations of elderly patients with acute respiratory infection have increased, yet the long-term effects of ICU admission among elderly individuals remain unknown. We examined differences over the 2 years after discharge in mortality, healthcare utilisation and frailty score between elderly survivors of ARI in the ICU and an elderly control population. METHODS: We used 2009-2017 data from 39 hospital discharge databases. Patients ≥ 80 years old discharged alive from ICU hospitalisation for acute respiratory infection were propensity score-matched with controls (cataract surgery) discharged from the hospital at the same time and adjusted for age, sex and comorbidities present before hospitalisation. We reported 2-year mortality and compared healthcare utilisation and frailty scores in the 2-year periods before and after ICU hospitalisation. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and twenty elderly survivors of acute respiratory infection in the ICU were discharged, and 988 were successfully matched with controls. After discharge, patients had a 10.1-fold [95% CI, 6.1-17.3] higher risk of death at 6 months and 3.6-fold [95% CI, 2.9-4.6] higher risk of death at 2 years compared with controls. They also had a 2-fold increase in both healthcare utilisation and frailty score in the 2 years after hospital discharge, whereas healthcare utilisation and frailty scores among controls were stable before and after hospitalisation. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a substantially increased rate of death in the years following ICU hospitalisation for elderly patients along with elevated healthcare resource use and accelerated age-associated decline as assessed by frailty score. These findings provide data for better informed goals-of-care discussions and may help target post-ICU discharge services.

The Fragility and Reliability of Conclusions of Anesthesia and Critical Care Randomized Trials With Statistically Significant Findings: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: The Fragility Index, which represents the number of patients responsible for a statistically significant finding, has been suggested as an aid for interpreting the robustness of results from clinical trials. A small Fragility Index indicates that the statistical significance of a trial depends on only a few events. Our objectives were to calculate the Fragility Index of statistically significant results from randomized controlled trials of anesthesia and critical care interventions and to determine the frequency of distorted presentation of results or "spin". DATA SOURCES: We systematically searched MEDLINE from January 01, 2007, to February 22, 2017, to identify randomized controlled trials exploring the effect of critical care medicine or anesthesia interventions. STUDY SELECTION: Studies were included if they randomized patients 1:1 into two parallel arms and reported at least one statistically significant (p < 0.05) binary outcome (primary or secondary). DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers independently assessed eligibility and extracted data. The Fragility Index was determined for the chosen outcome. We assessed the level of spin in negative trials and the presence of recommendations for clinical practice in positive trials. DATA SYNTHESIS: We identified 166 eligible randomized controlled trials with a median sample size of 207 patients (interquartile range, 109-497). The median Fragility Index was 3 (interquartile range, 1-7), which means that adding three events to one of the trials treatment arms eliminated its statistical significance. High spin was identified in 42% (n = 30) of negative randomized controlled trials, whereas 21% (n = 20) of positive randomized controlled trials provided recommendations. Lower levels of spin and recommendations were associated with publication in journals with high impact factors (p < 0.001 for both). CONCLUSIONS: Statistically significant results in anesthesia and critical care randomized controlled trials are often fragile, and study conclusions are frequently affected by spin. Routine calculation of the Fragility Index in medical literature may allow for better understanding of trials and therefore enhance the quality of reporting.

Aspirin in Patients With Previous Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery.

Background: Uncertainty remains about the effects of aspirin in patients with prior percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) having noncardiac surgery. Objective: To evaluate benefits and harms of perioperative aspirin in patients with prior PCI. Design: Nonprespecified subgroup analysis of a multicenter factorial trial. Computerized Internet randomization was done between 2010 and 2013. Patients, clinicians, data collectors, and outcome adjudicators were blinded to treatment assignment. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01082874). Setting: 135 centers in 23 countries. Patients: Adults aged 45 years or older who had or were at risk for atherosclerotic disease and were having noncardiac surgery. Exclusions were placement of a bare-metal stent within 6 weeks, placement of a drug-eluting stent within 1 year, or receipt of nonstudy aspirin within 72 hours before surgery. Intervention: Aspirin therapy (overall trial, n = 4998; subgroup, n = 234) or placebo (overall trial, n = 5012; subgroup, n = 236) initiated within 4 hours before surgery and continued throughout the perioperative period. Of the 470 subgroup patients, 99.9% completed follow-up. Measurements: The 30-day primary outcome was death or nonfatal myocardial infarction; bleeding was a secondary outcome. Results: In patients with prior PCI, aspirin reduced the risk for the primary outcome (absolute risk reduction, 5.5% [95% CI, 0.4% to 10.5%]; hazard ratio [HR], 0.50 [CI, 0.26 to 0.95]; P for interaction = 0.036) and for myocardial infarction (absolute risk reduction, 5.9% [CI, 1.0% to 10.8%]; HR, 0.44 [CI, 0.22 to 0.87]; P for interaction = 0.021). The effect on the composite of major and life-threatening bleeding in patients with prior PCI was uncertain (absolute risk increase, 1.3% [CI, -2.6% to 5.2%]). In the overall population, aspirin increased the risk for major bleeding (absolute risk increase, 0.8% [CI, 0.1% to 1.6%]; HR, 1.22 [CI, 1.01 to 1.48]; P for interaction = 0.50). Limitation: Nonprespecified subgroup analysis with small sample. Conclusion: Perioperative aspirin may be more likely to benefit rather than harm patients with prior PCI. Primary Funding Source: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Troponin T monitoring to detect myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery: a cost-consequence analysis.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) is a mostly asymptomatic condition that is strongly associated with 30-day mortality; however, it remains mostly undetected without systematic troponin T monitoring. We evaluated the cost and consequences of postoperative troponin T monitoring to detect MINS. METHODS: We conducted a model-based cost-consequence analysis to compare the impact of routine troponin T monitoring versus standard care (troponin T measurement triggered by ischemic symptoms) on the incidence of MINS detection. Model inputs were based on Canadian patients enrolled in the Vascular Events in Noncardiac Surgery Patients Cohort Evaluation (VISION) study, which enrolled patients aged 45 years or older undergoing inpatient noncardiac surgery. We conducted probability analyses with 10 000 iterations and extensive sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The data were based on 6021 patients (48% men, mean age 65 [standard deviation 12] yr). The 30-day mortality rate for MINS was 9.6%. We determined the incremental cost to avoid missing a MINS event as $1632 (2015 Canadian dollars). The cost-effectiveness of troponin monitoring was higher in patient subgroups at higher risk for MINS, e.g., those aged 65 years or more, or with a history of atherosclerosis or diabetes ($1309). CONCLUSION: The costs associated with a troponin T monitoring program to detect MINS were moderate. Based on the estimated incremental cost per health gain, implementation of postoperative troponin T monitoring seems appealing, particularly in patients at high risk for MINS.

CONTEXTE: Les lésions myocardiques après chirurgie non cardiaque (CNC) sont majoritairement asymptomatiques et fortement associées au risque de mortalité dans les 30 jours; toutefois, dans la plupart des cas, elles ne sont pas détectées en l'absence d'une surveillance systématique de la troponine T. Nous avons évalué les coûts et les conséquences d'une telle surveillance pour détecter les lésions myocardiques après CNC. MÉTHODES: Nous avons mené une analyse coût-conséquence modélisée pour comparer la surveillance systématique de la troponine T aux soins habituels seuls (mesure de la troponine T seulement s'il y a présence de symptômes d'ischémie) sur la fréquence de détection de lésions myocardiques après CNC. Les données ayant servi à l'analyse provenaient des patients canadiens ayant participé à l'étude de cohorte VISION, qui visait à évaluer les complications vasculaires chez les patients de 45 ans et plus ayant subi une CNC. Nous avons mené des analyses de probabilité avec 10  000 itérations et des analyses de sensibilité approfondies. RÉSULTATS: Les données portaient sur 6021 patients (48 % du sexe masculin; âge moyen de 65 ans [écart-type de 12 ans]). Le taux de mortalité dans les 30 jours associé à une lésion myocardique après CNC était de 9,6 %. Nous avons déterminé que le coût marginal de la détection de la présence d'une lésion par surveillance de la troponine T était de 1632 $ (dollars canadiens en 2015). Le rapport coût-efficacité était plus bas pour les sous-groupes de patients à risque élevé de lésion myocardique après CNC, comme les patients de 65 ans et plus ou ceux ayant des antécédents d'athérosclérose ou de diabète (1309 $), que pour leurs pairs. CONCLUSION: Les coûts associés à un programme de surveillance de la troponine T pour détecter les lésions myocardiques après CNC étaient modérés. Le coût marginal estimé par gain de santé indique que la mise en œuvre de ce type de programme pourrait être une option intéressante, surtout pour les patients à risque élevé de lésion myocardique après CNC.

Clonidine in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Marked activation of the sympathetic nervous system occurs during and after noncardiac surgery. Low-dose clonidine, which blunts central sympathetic outflow, may prevent perioperative myocardial infarction and death without inducing hemodynamic instability. METHODS: We performed a blinded, randomized trial with a 2-by-2 factorial design to allow separate evaluation of low-dose clonidine versus placebo and low-dose aspirin versus placebo in patients with, or at risk for, atherosclerotic disease who were undergoing noncardiac surgery. A total of 10,010 patients at 135 centers in 23 countries were enrolled. For the comparison of clonidine with placebo, patients were randomly assigned to receive clonidine (0.2 mg per day) or placebo just before surgery, with the study drug continued until 72 hours after surgery. The primary outcome was a composite of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 30 days. RESULTS: Clonidine, as compared with placebo, did not reduce the number of primary-outcome events (367 and 339, respectively; hazard ratio with clonidine, 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93 to 1.26; P=0.29). Myocardial infarction occurred in 329 patients (6.6%) assigned to clonidine and in 295 patients (5.9%) assigned to placebo (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.95 to 1.30; P=0.18). Significantly more patients in the clonidine group than in the placebo group had clinically important hypotension (2385 patients [47.6%] vs. 1854 patients [37.1%]; hazard ratio 1.32; 95% CI, 1.24 to 1.40; P<0.001). Clonidine, as compared with placebo, was associated with an increased rate of nonfatal cardiac arrest (0.3% [16 patients] vs. 0.1% [5 patients]; hazard ratio, 3.20; 95% CI, 1.17 to 8.73; P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Administration of low-dose clonidine in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery did not reduce the rate of the composite outcome of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction; it did, however, increase the risk of clinically important hypotension and nonfatal cardiac arrest. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; POISE-2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01082874.).

Aspirin in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: There is substantial variability in the perioperative administration of aspirin in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, both among patients who are already on an aspirin regimen and among those who are not. METHODS: Using a 2-by-2 factorial trial design, we randomly assigned 10,010 patients who were preparing to undergo noncardiac surgery and were at risk for vascular complications to receive aspirin or placebo and clonidine or placebo. The results of the aspirin trial are reported here. The patients were stratified according to whether they had not been taking aspirin before the study (initiation stratum, with 5628 patients) or they were already on an aspirin regimen (continuation stratum, with 4382 patients). Patients started taking aspirin (at a dose of 200 mg) or placebo just before surgery and continued it daily (at a dose of 100 mg) for 30 days in the initiation stratum and for 7 days in the continuation stratum, after which patients resumed their regular aspirin regimen. The primary outcome was a composite of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 30 days. RESULTS: The primary outcome occurred in 351 of 4998 patients (7.0%) in the aspirin group and in 355 of 5012 patients (7.1%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio in the aspirin group, 0.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86 to 1.15; P=0.92). Major bleeding was more common in the aspirin group than in the placebo group (230 patients [4.6%] vs. 188 patients [3.8%]; hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.01, to 1.49; P=0.04). The primary and secondary outcome results were similar in the two aspirin strata. CONCLUSIONS: Administration of aspirin before surgery and throughout the early postsurgical period had no significant effect on the rate of a composite of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction but increased the risk of major bleeding. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; POISE-2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01082874.).

Comparison of the Prognostic Significance of Initial Blood Lactate and Base Deficit in Trauma Patients.

BACKGROUND: Initial blood lactate and base deficit have been shown to be prognostic biomarkers in trauma, but their respective performances have not been compared. METHODS: Blood lactate levels and base deficit were measured at admission in trauma patients in three level 1 trauma centers. This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively acquired data. The association of initial blood lactate and base deficit with mortality was tested using receiver operating characteristics curve, logistic regression using triage scores (Revised Trauma Score and Mechanism Glasgow scale and Arterial Pressure score), and Trauma Related Injury Severity Score as a reference standard. The authors also used a reclassification method. RESULTS: The authors evaluated 1,075 trauma patients (mean age, 39 ± 18 yr, with 90% blunt and 10% penetrating injuries and a mortality of 13%). At admission, blood lactate was elevated in 425 (39%) patients and base deficit was elevated in 725 (67%) patients. Blood lactate was correlated with base deficit (R = 0.54; P < 0.001). Using logistic regression, blood lactate was a better predictor of death than base deficit when considering its additional predictive value to triage scores and Trauma Related Injury Severity Score. This result was confirmed using a reclassification method but only in the subgroup of normotensive patients (n = 745). CONCLUSIONS: Initial blood lactate should be preferred to base deficit as a biologic variable in scoring systems built to assess the initial severity of trauma patients.

Withholding versus Continuing Angiotensin-converting Enzyme Inhibitors or Angiotensin II Receptor Blockers before Noncardiac Surgery: An Analysis of the Vascular events In noncardiac Surgery patIents cOhort evaluatioN Prospective Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The effect on cardiovascular outcomes of withholding angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers in chronic users before noncardiac surgery is unknown. METHODS: In this international prospective cohort study, the authors analyzed data from 14,687 patients (including 4,802 angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin II receptor blocker users) at least 45 yr old who had in-patient noncardiac surgery from 2007 to 2011. Using multivariable regression models, the authors studied the relationship between withholding angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers and a primary composite outcome of all-cause death, stroke, or myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery at 30 days, with intraoperative and postoperative clinically important hypotension as secondary outcomes. RESULTS: Compared to patients who continued their angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers, the 1,245 (26%) angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin II receptor blocker users who withheld their angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers in the 24 h before surgery were less likely to suffer the primary composite outcome of all-cause death, stroke, or myocardial injury (150/1,245 [12.0%] vs. 459/3,557 [12.9%]; adjusted relative risk, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.96; P = 0.01) and intraoperative hypotension (adjusted relative risk, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.93; P < 0.001). The risk of postoperative hypotension was similar between the two groups (adjusted relative risk, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.10; P = 0.36). Results were consistent across the range of preoperative blood pressures. The practice of withholding angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers was only modestly correlated with patient characteristics and the type and timing of surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Withholding angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers before major noncardiac surgery was associated with a lower risk of death and postoperative vascular events. A large randomized trial is needed to confirm this finding. In the interim, clinicians should consider recommending that patients withhold angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers 24 h before surgery.

Double-adjustment in propensity score matching analysis: choosing a threshold for considering residual imbalance.

BACKGROUND: Double-adjustment can be used to remove confounding if imbalance exists after propensity score (PS) matching. However, it is not always possible to include all covariates in adjustment. We aimed to find the optimal imbalance threshold for entering covariates into regression. METHODS: We conducted a series of Monte Carlo simulations on virtual populations of 5,000 subjects. We performed PS 1:1 nearest-neighbor matching on each sample. We calculated standardized mean differences across groups to detect any remaining imbalance in the matched samples. We examined 25 thresholds (from 0.01 to 0.25, stepwise 0.01) for considering residual imbalance. The treatment effect was estimated using logistic regression that contained only those covariates considered to be unbalanced by these thresholds. RESULTS: We showed that regression adjustment could dramatically remove residual confounding bias when it included all of the covariates with a standardized difference greater than 0.10. The additional benefit was negligible when we also adjusted for covariates with less imbalance. We found that the mean squared error of the estimates was minimized under the same conditions. CONCLUSION: If covariate balance is not achieved, we recommend reiterating PS modeling until standardized differences below 0.10 are achieved on most covariates. In case of remaining imbalance, a double adjustment might be worth considering.

Comparison of the ability of double-robust estimators to correct bias in propensity score matching analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation study.

OBJECTIVE: As covariates are not always adequately balanced after propensity score matching and double- adjustment can be used to remove residual confounding, we compared the performance of several double-robust estimators in different scenarios. METHODS: We conducted a series of Monte Carlo simulations on virtual observational studies. After estimating the propensity scores by logistic regression, we performed 1:1 optimal, nearest-neighbor, and caliper matching. We used 4 estimators on each matched sample: (1) a crude estimator without double-adjustment, (2) double-adjustment for the propensity scores, (3) double-adjustment for the unweighted unbalanced covariates, and (4) double-adjustment for the unbalanced covariates, weighted by their strength of association with the outcome. RESULTS: The crude estimator led to highest bias in all tested scenarios. Double-adjustment for the propensity scores effectively removed confounding only when the propensity score models were correctly specified. Double-adjustment for the unbalanced covariates was more robust to misspecification. Double-adjustment for the weighted unbalanced covariates outperformed the other approaches in every scenario and using any matching algorithm, as measured by the mean squared error. CONCLUSION: Double-adjustment can be used to remove residual confounding after propensity score matching. The unbalanced covariates with the strongest confounding effects should be adjusted.

Association between pre-operative statin use and major cardiovascular complications among patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery: the VISION study.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess the effects of pre-operative statin therapy on cardiovascular events in the first 30-days after non-cardiac surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted an international, prospective, cohort study of patients who were ≥45 years having in-patient non-cardiac surgery. We estimated the probability of receiving statins pre-operatively using a multivariable logistic model and conducted a propensity score analysis to correct for confounding. A total of 15 478 patients were recruited at 12 centres in eight countries from August 2007 to January 2011. The matched population consisted of 2845 patients (18.4%) treated with a statin and 4492 (29.0%) controls. The pre-operative use of statins was associated with lower risk of the primary outcome, a composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS), or stroke at 30 days [relative risk (RR), 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.73-0.95; P = 0.007]. Statins were also associated with a significant lower risk of all-cause mortality (RR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.40-0.83; P = 0.003), cardiovascular mortality (RR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.23-0.76; P = 0.004), and MINS (RR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.73-0.98; P = 0.02). There were no statistically significant differences in the risk of myocardial infarction or stroke. CONCLUSION: Among patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, pre-operative statin therapy was independently associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular outcomes at 30 days. These results require confirmation in a large randomized trial. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials.gov NCT00512109.

Apheresis platelets are more frequently associated with adverse reactions than pooled platelets both in recipients and in donors: a study from French hemovigilance data.

BACKGROUND: Controversy exists regarding the safety of the different types of platelet (PLT) concentrates. This study was aimed at comparing the rate of adverse reactions associated with apheresis PLT concentrates (APCs) and pooled PLT concentrates (PPCs) both in donors and in recipients. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: From the French national hemovigilance system, types and numbers of recipient adverse reactions were compared over a period from 2009 to 2011. Donor adverse reactions were available for 2010 and 2011. This study involved 23 of 26 French regions. Main outcomes were the rates of adverse reaction in recipients and serious adverse reaction in donors. RESULTS: There were 790,854 PLT transfusions during the study period (477,747 [60%] with APCs, 313,107 [40%] with PPCs). APCs were associated with more adverse reactions (6244 vs. 2469 per 1,000,000, p < 0.001) and more severe and life-threatening reactions (respectively, 241 vs. 131 per 1,000,000, p < 0.001; and 182 vs. 121 per 1,000,000, p = 0.04). Mortality rates due to an adverse transfusion reaction were similar (15 vs. 6 per 1,000,000, p = 0.5). In donors, the number of whole blood (WB) donations was 4,722,685 whereas 266,095 apheresis procedures were performed. Serious adverse reactions were more frequent for apheresis procedures than for WB donations (5445 vs. 803 per 1,000,000, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that apheresis PLTs may be more hazardous than pooled PLTs both in recipients and in donors. This study calls for randomized trials to confirm or refute these results.

Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality (POSPOM): Derivation and Validation.

BACKGROUND: An accurate risk score able to predict in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing surgery may improve both risk communication and clinical decision making. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a surgical risk score based solely on preoperative information, for predicting in-hospital mortality. METHODS: From January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2010, data related to all surgeries requiring anesthesia were collected from all centers (single hospital or hospitals group) in France performing more than 500 operations in the year on patients aged 18 yr or older (n = 5,507,834). International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th revision codes were used to summarize the medical history of patients. From these data, the authors developed a risk score by examining 29 preoperative factors (age, comorbidities, and surgery type) in 2,717,902 patients, and then validated the risk score in a separate cohort of 2,789,932 patients. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, there were 12,786 in-hospital deaths (0.47%; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.48%), whereas in the validation cohort there were 14,933 in-hospital deaths (0.54%; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.55%). Seventeen predictors were identified and included in the PreOperative Score to predict PostOperative Mortality (POSPOM). POSPOM showed good calibration and excellent discrimination for in-hospital mortality, with a c-statistic of 0.944 (95% CI, 0.943 to 0.945) in the development cohort and 0.929 (95% CI, 0.928 to 0.931) in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: The authors have developed and validated POSPOM, a simple risk score for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in surgical patients.

Severe and multiple hypoglycemic episodes are associated with increased risk of death in ICU patients.

INTRODUCTION: In a randomized controlled trial comparing tight glucose control with a computerized decision support system and conventional protocols (post hoc analysis), we tested the hypothesis that hypoglycemia is associated with a poor outcome, even when controlling for initial severity. METHODS: We looked for moderate (2.2 to 3.3 mmol/L) and severe (<2.2 mmol/L) hypoglycemia, multiple hypoglycemic events (n ≥3) and the other main components of glycemic control (mean blood glucose level and blood glucose coefficient of variation (CV)). The primary endpoint was 90-day mortality. We used both a multivariable analysis taking into account only variables observed at admission and a multivariable matching process (greedy matching algorithm; caliper width of 10(-5) digit with no replacement). RESULTS: A total of 2,601 patients were analyzed and divided into three groups: no hypoglycemia (n =1,474), moderate hypoglycemia (n =874, 34%) and severe hypoglycemia (n =253, 10%). Patients with moderate or severe hypoglycemia had a poorer prognosis, as shown by a higher mortality rate (36% and 54%, respectively, vs. 28%) and decreased number of treatment-free days. In the multivariable analysis, severe (odds ratio (OR), 1.50; 95% CI, 1.36 to 1.56; P =0.043) and multiple hypoglycemic events (OR, 1.76, 95% CI, 1.31 to 3.37; P <0.001) were significantly associated with mortality, whereas blood glucose CV was not. Using multivariable matching, patients with severe (53% vs. 35%; P <0.001), moderate (33% vs. 27%; P =0.029) and multiple hypoglycemic events (46% vs. 32%, P <0.001) had a higher 90-day mortality. CONCLUSION: In a large cohort of ICU patients, severe hypoglycemia and multiple hypoglycemic events were associated with increased 90-day mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01002482 . Registered 26 October 2009.