Imaging Early Life Cardiovascular Phenotype.

The growing epidemics of obesity, hypertension, and diabetes, in addition to worsening environmental factors such as air pollution, water scarcity, and climate change, have fueled the continuously increasing prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). This has caused a markedly increasing burden of CVDs that includes mortality and morbidity worldwide. Identification of subclinical CVD before overt symptoms can lead to earlier deployment of preventative pharmacological and nonpharmacologic strategies. In this regard, noninvasive imaging techniques play a significant role in identifying early CVD phenotypes. An armamentarium of imaging techniques including vascular ultrasound, echocardiography, magnetic resonance imaging, computed tomography, noninvasive computed tomography angiography, positron emission tomography, and nuclear imaging, with intrinsic strengths and limitations can be utilized to delineate incipient CVD for both clinical and research purposes. In this article, we review the various imaging modalities used for the evaluation, characterization, and quantification of early subclinical cardiovascular diseases.

HIV, HIV-specific Factors and Myocardial Disease in Women.

BACKGROUND: People with HIV (PWH) have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) has documented higher myocardial fibrosis, inflammation and steatosis in PWH, but studies have mostly relied on healthy volunteers as comparators and focused on men. METHODS: We investigated the associations of HIV and HIV-specific factors with CMR phenotypes in female participants enrolled in the Women's Interagency HIV Study's New York and San Francisco sites. Primary phenotypes included myocardial native (n) T1 (fibro-inflammation), extracellular volume fraction (ECV, fibrosis) and triglyceride content (steatosis). Associations were evaluated with multivariable linear regression, and results pooled or meta-analyzed across centers. RESULTS: Among 261 women with HIV (WWH, total n = 362), 76.2% had undetectable viremia at CMR. For the 82.8% receiving continuous antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the preceding 5 years, adherence was 51.7%, and 71.3% failed to achieve persistent viral suppression (42.2% with peak viral load < 200 cp/mL). Overall, WWH showed higher nT1 than women without HIV (WWOH) after full adjustment. This higher nT1 was more pronounced in those with antecedent or current viremia or nadir CD4+ count < 200 cells/µL, the latter also associated with higher ECV. WWH and current CD4+ count < 200 cells/µL had less cardiomyocyte steatosis. Cumulative exposure to specific ART showed no associations. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with sociodemographically similar WWOH, WWH on ART exhibit higher myocardial fibro-inflammation, which is more prominent with unsuppressed viremia or CD4+ lymphopenia. These findings support the importance of improved ART adherence strategies, along with better understanding of latent infection, to mitigate cardiac end-organ damage in this population.

Association of 20-Year Longitudinal Depressive Symptoms With Left Ventricular Geometry Outcomes in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study: A Role for Androgens?

OBJECTIVE: Depression is a risk factor for coronary heart disease and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is a potent predictor of coronary heart disease events. Whether depression is associated with LVH has received limited investigation. This study assessed cross-sectional and 20-year longitudinal associations of depressive symptoms with LVH outcomes after accounting for important known confounders. METHODS: From 5115 participants enrolled in 1985-1986 in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study, 2533 had serial measures of depressive symptoms and subsequent echocardiography to measure normal LV geometry, concentric remodeling, and LVH. The primary exposure variable was trajectories of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale score from 1990-1991 to 2010-2011. Multivariable polytomous logistic regression was used to assess associations of trajectories with a composite LV geometry outcome created using echocardiogram data measured in 2010-2011 and 2015-2016. Sex-specific conflicting results led to exploratory models that examined potential importance of testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin. RESULTS: Overall CES-D and Somatic subscale trajectories had significant associations with LVH for female participants only. Odds ratios for the subthreshold (mean CES-D ≈ 14) and stable (mean CES-D ≈ 19) groups were 1.49 (95% confidence interval = 1.05-2.13) and 1.88 (95% confidence interval = 1.16-3.04), respectively. For female participants, sex hormone-binding globulin was inversely associated with LVH, and for male participants, bioavailable testosterone was positively associated with concentric geometry. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from cross-sectional and longitudinal regression models for female participants, but not male ones, and particularly for Somatic subscale trajectories suggested a plausible link among depression, androgens, and LVH. The role of androgens to the depression-LVH relation requires additional investigation in future studies.

Association of endogenous sex hormone levels with tooth loss due to periodontitis in men and post-menopausal women: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

AIM: To investigate the association between endogenous sex hormone levels and history of tooth loss related to periodontitis in healthy middle-aged to older men and post-menopausal women. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 5649 participants aged 45-84 (mean age, 63 ± 10 years) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort who had sex hormone levels measured and answered a questionnaire regarding perceived periodontal status at exam 1. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association of sex hormones (exposure) with history of tooth loss (outcome), stratified by sex. RESULTS: Among post-menopausal women, higher free testosterone (per 1SD) was associated with a greater prevalence of tooth loss [OR 1.49 (95% CI, 1.08-2.05)], whereas higher sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) was associated with a lower prevalence of tooth loss [OR 0.74 (0.58-0.94)], after adjustment for cardiometabolic risk factors and reproductive factors. In men, higher free testosterone and lower SHBG were associated with a lower prevalent probability of tooth loss in unadjusted analysis, but these associations lost significance after covariate adjustment. CONCLUSION: A higher androgenic sex hormone profile in post-menopausal women (i.e., increased free testosterone, lower SHBG) was associated with an increased prevalence of tooth loss, after adjusting cardiometabolic risk factors. No such association was found in men. These findings suggest that sex hormones may influence or serve as a marker for periodontal health.

Statin use and longitudinal changes in quantitative MRI-based biomarkers of thigh muscle quality: data from Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether changes in MRI-based measures of thigh muscle quality associated with statin use in participants with and without/at-risk of knee osteoarthritis. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative study. Statin users and non-users were matched for relevant covariates using 1:1 propensity-score matching. Participants were further stratified according to baseline radiographic knee osteoarthritis status. We used a validated deep-learning method for thigh muscle MRI segmentation and calculation of muscle quality biomarkers at baseline, 2nd, and 4th visits. Mean difference and 95% confidence intervals (CI) in longitudinal 4-year measurements of muscle quality biomarkers, including cross-sectional area, intramuscular adipose tissue, contractile percent, and knee extensors and flexors maximum and specific contractile force (force/muscle area) were the outcomes of interest. RESULTS: After matching, 3772 thighs of 1910 participants were included (1886 thighs of statin-users: 1886 of non-users; age: 62 ± 9 years (average ± standard deviation), range: 45-79; female/male: 1). During 4 years, statin use was associated with a slight decrease in muscle quality, indicated by decreased knee extension maximum (mean-difference, 95% CI: - 1.85 N/year, - 3.23 to - 0.47) and specific contractile force (- 0.04 N/cm2/year, - 0.07 to - 0.01), decreased thigh muscle contractile percent (- 0.03%/year, - 0.06 to - 0.01), and increased thigh intramuscular adipose tissue (3.06 mm2/year, 0.53 to 5.59). Stratified analyses showed decreased muscle quality only in participants without/at-risk of knee osteoarthritis but not those with established knee osteoarthritis. CONCLUSIONS: Statin use is associated with a slight decrease in MRI-based measures of thigh muscle quality over 4 years. However, considering statins' substantial cardiovascular benefits, these slight muscle changes may be relatively less important in overall patient care.

Circulating ketone bodies and cardiovascular outcomes: the MESA study.

AIMS: Ketone bodies (KB) are an important alternative metabolic fuel source for the myocardium. Experimental and human investigations suggest that KB may have protective effects in patients with heart failure. This study aimed to examine the association between KB and cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in an ethnically diverse population free from cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: This analysis included 6796 participants (mean age 62 ± 10 years, 53% women) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Total KB was measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association of total KB with cardiovascular outcomes. At a mean follow-up of 13.6 years, after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors, increasing total KB was associated with a higher rate of hard CVD, defined as a composite of myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke, and cardiovascular death, and all CVD (additionally included adjudicated angina) [hazard ratio, HR (95% confidence interval, CI): 1.54 (1.12-2.12) and 1.37 (1.04-1.80) per 10-fold increase in total KB, respectively]. Participants also experienced an 87% (95% CI: 1.17-2.97) increased rate of CVD mortality and an 81% (1.45-2.23) increased rate of all-cause mortality per 10-fold increase in total KB. Moreover, a higher rate of incident heart failure was observed with increasing total KB [1.68 (1.07-2.65), per 10-fold increase in total KB]. CONCLUSION: The study found that elevated endogenous KB in a healthy community-based population is associated with a higher rate of CVD and mortality. Ketone bodies could serve as a potential biomarker for cardiovascular risk assessment.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: The MESA Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in population health, marked racial and ethnic disparities in longevity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist. This study aimed to describe risks for all-cause and CVD mortality by race and ethnicity, before and after accounting for socioeconomic status (SES) and other factors, in the MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). METHODS: MESA recruited 6814 US adults, 45 to 84 years of age, free of clinical CVD at baseline, including Black, White, Hispanic, and Chinese individuals (2000-2002). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling with time-updated covariates, we evaluated the association of self-reported race and ethnicity with all-cause and adjudicated CVD mortality, with progressive adjustments for age and sex, SES (neighborhood SES, income, education, and health insurance), lifestyle and psychosocial risk factors, clinical risk factors, and immigration history. RESULTS: During a median of 15.8 years of follow-up, 22.8% of participants (n=1552) died, of which 5.3% (n=364) died of CVD. After adjusting for age and sex, Black participants had a 34% higher mortality hazard (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]), Chinese participants had a 21% lower mortality hazard (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.66-0.95]), and there was no mortality difference in Hispanic participants (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.86-1.14]) compared with White participants. After adjusting for SES, the mortality HR for Black participants compared with White participants was reduced (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.34]) but still statistically significant. With adjustment for SES, the mortality hazards for Chinese and Hispanic participants also decreased in comparison with White participants. After further adjustment for additional risk factors and immigration history, Hispanic participants (HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]) had a lower mortality risk than White participants, and hazard ratios for Black participants (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.92-1.26]) and Chinese participants (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60-1.08]) were not significantly different from those of White participants. Similar trends were seen for CVD mortality, although the age- and sex-adjusted HR for CVD mortality for Black participants compared with White participants was greater than all-cause mortality (HR, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.34-2.21] compared with HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight persistent racial and ethnic differences in overall and CVD mortality, largely attributable to social determinants of health, and support the need to identify and act on systemic factors that shape differences in health across racial and ethnic groups.

Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Phase 2b Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Recombinant Human Lecithin Cholesterol Acyltransferase in Acute ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Results of REAL-TIMI 63B.

BACKGROUND: High-density lipoprotein plays a key role in reverse cholesterol transport. In addition, high-density lipoprotein particles may be cardioprotective and reduce infarct size in the setting of myocardial injury. Lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase is a rate-limiting enzyme in reverse cholesterol transport. MEDI6012 is a recombinant human lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase that increases high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Administration of lecithin-cholesterol acyltransferase has the potential to reduce infarct size and regress coronary plaque in acute ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. METHODS: REAL-TIMI 63B (A Randomized, Placebo­controlled Phase 2b Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of MEDI6012 in Acute ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction) was a phase 2B multinational, placebo-controlled, randomized trial. Patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction within 6 hours of symptom onset and planned for percutaneous intervention were randomly assigned 2:1 to MEDI6012 (2- or 6-dose regimen) or placebo and followed for 12 weeks. The primary outcome was infarct size as a percentage of left ventricular mass by cardiac MRI at 10 to 12 weeks, with the primary analysis in patients with TIMI Flow Grade 0 to 1 before percutaneous intervention who received at least 2 doses of MEDI6012. The secondary outcome was change in noncalcified plaque volume on coronary computed tomographic angiography from baseline to 10 to 12 weeks with the primary analysis in patients who received all 6 doses of MEDI6012. RESULTS: A total of 593 patients were randomly assigned. Patients were a median of 62 years old, 77.9% male, and 95.8% statin naive. Median time from symptom onset to randomization was 146 (interquartile range [IQR], 103-221) minutes and from hospitalization to randomization was 12.7 (IQR, 6.6-24.0) minutes, and the first dose of drug was administered a median of 8 (IQR, 3-13) minutes before percutaneous intervention. The index myocardial infarction was anterior in 69.6% and TIMI Flow Grade 0 to 1 in 65.1% of patients. At 12 weeks, infarct size did not differ between treatment groups (MEDI6012: 9.71%, IQR 4.79-16.38; placebo: 10.48%, [IQR, 4.92-16.61], 1-sided P=0.79. There was also no difference in noncalcified plaque volume (geometric mean ratio, 0.96 [95% CI, NA-1.10], 1-sided P=0.30). There was no significant difference in treatment emergent serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Administration of MEDI6012 in patients with acute ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction did not result in a significant reduction in infarct size or noncalcified plaque volume at 12 weeks. MEDI6012 was well tolerated with no excess in overall serious adverse events. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03578809.

Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis: Relationship between Left Ventricular Shape at Cardiac MRI and 10-year Outcomes.

Background Left ventricular (LV) subclinical remodeling is associated with adverse outcomes and indicates mechanisms of disease development. Standard metrics such as LV mass and volumes may not capture the full range of remodeling. Purpose To quantify the relationship between LV three-dimensional shape at MRI and incident cardiovascular events over 10 years. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, 5098 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease underwent cardiac MRI from 2000 to 2002. LV shape models were automatically generated using a machine learning workflow. Event-specific remodeling signatures were computed using partial least squares regression, and random survival forests were used to determine which features were most associated with incident heart failure (HF), coronary heart disease (CHD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events over a 10-year follow-up period. The discrimination improvement of adding LV shape to traditional cardiovascular risk factors, coronary artery calcium scores, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels was assessed using the index of prediction accuracy and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to illustrate the ability of remodeling signatures to predict the end points. Results Overall, 4618 participants had sufficient three-dimensional MRI information to generate patient-specific LV models (mean age, 60.6 years ± 9.9 [SD]; 2540 women). Among these participants, 147 had HF, 317 had CHD, and 455 had CVD events. The addition of LV remodeling signatures to traditional cardiovascular risk factors improved the mean AUC for 10-year survival prediction and achieved better performance than LV mass and volumes; HF (AUC, 0.83 ± 0.01 and 0.81 ± 0.01, respectively; P < .05), CHD (AUC, 0.77 ± 0.01 and 0.75 ± 0.01, respectively; P < .05), and CVD (AUC, 0.78 ± 0.0 and 0.76 ± 0.0, respectively; P < .05). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that participants with high-risk HF remodeling signatures had a 10-year survival rate of 56% compared with 95% for those with low-risk scores. Conclusion Left ventricular event-specific remodeling signatures were more predictive of heart failure, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease events over 10 years than standard mass and volume measures and enable an automatic personalized medicine approach to tracking remodeling. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Vascular aneurysms in Ehlers-Danlos syndrome subtypes: A systematic review.

Aneurysmal lesions are commonly seen in Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome (EDS). To better identify the regional and vessel-specific spectrum of aneurysms in different subtypes of EDS, we performed a systematic review. We searched Medline for relevant studies from 1963 to April 2022. Studies providing a report of any EDS subtype by genetic diagnosis, histologic analysis, or clinical criteria were included. A total of 448 patients from 220 studies were included. 720 vessel-specific aneurysms were reported: 386 in the abdominopelvic area, 165 in the intracranial region, 98 in the thorax, 2 in the extremities, and 6 in the venous system. In 27 out of the 65 patients with ruptured aneurysms, the ruptured aneurysm was the initial presentation. Multiple aneurysms were present in 163 out of 249 patients who had been systematically evaluated for other locations of aneurysms. The head and neck and abdominopelvic regions are two potential foci for aneurysm formation in patients with EDS. The aneurysm development in EDS is not confined to arteries; the venous system and cardiac septa may also be affected. Many patients develop multiple aneurysms, either at the time of the initial presentation or throughout their lifetime and aneurysm formation or rupture may be the first presentation of EDS.

Thoracic Aortic Volume as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Events: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether thoracic aortic volume (TAV) is useful for cardiovascular (CV) disease prognosis and risk assessment. PURPOSE: This study evaluated cross-sectional associations of TAV with CV risk factors, and longitudinal association with incident CV events in the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis. STUDY TYPE: Retrospective cohort analysis of prospective data. POPULATION: 1182 participants (69 ± 9 years, 54% female, 37% Caucasian, 18% Chinese, 31% African American, 14% Hispanic, 60% hypertensive, and 20% diabetic) without prior CV disease. FIELD STRENGTH AND SEQUENCES: Axial black-blood turbo spin echo or bright blood steady-state free precession images on 1.5T scanners. ASSESSMENT: TAV was calculated using Simpson's method from axial images, and included the ascending arch and descending segments. Traditional CV risk factors were assessed at the time of MRI. CV outcomes over a 9-year follow-up period were recorded and represented a composite of stroke, stroke death, coronary heart disease (CHD), CHD death, atherosclerotic death, and CVD death. STATISTICAL TESTS: Multivariable linear regression models adjusted for height and weight were used to determine the relationship (ß coefficient) between TAV and CV risk factors. Cox regression models assessed the association of TAV and incident CV events. A P-value of <0.05 was deemed statistically significant. RESULTS: Mean TAV was = 139 ± 41 mL. In multivariable regression, TAV was directly associated with age (ß = 1.6), male gender (ß = 23.9), systolic blood pressure (ß = 0.1), and hypertension medication use (ß = 7.9); and inversely associated with lipid medication use (ß = -5.3) and treated diabetes (ß = -8.9). Compared to Caucasians, Chinese Americans had higher TAV (ß = 11.4), while African Americans had lower TAV (ß = -7.0). Higher TAV was independently associated with incident CV events (HR: 1.057 per 10 mL). CONCLUSION: Greater TAV is associated with incident CV events, increased age, and hypertension in a large multiethnic population while treated diabetes and lipid medication use were associated with lower TAV. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Coronary computed tomography plaque-based scores predict long-term cardiovascular events.

OBJECTIVES: Coronary computed tomography angiography (coronary CTA) scores based on luminal obstruction, plaque burden, and characteristics are used for prognostication in coronary artery disease (CAD), such as segmental stenosis and plaque extent involvement and Gensini and Leaman scores. The use of coronary CTA scores for the long-term prognosis remains not completely defined. We sought to evaluate the long-term prognosis of CTA scores for cardiovascular events in symptomatic patients with suspected CAD. METHODS: The presence and extent of CAD were evaluated by coronary CTA in patients from two multicenter prospective studies, which were classified according to several coronary CTA scores. The primary endpoint was major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Two hundred and twenty-two patients were followed up for a median of 6.8 (6.3-9.1) years, and 73 patients met the composite endpoints of MACE. RESULTS: Compared to the clinical prediction model, the highest model improvement was observed when added obstructive CAD. After adjustment for the presence of obstructive CAD, the segment involvement score for non-calcified plaque (SISNoncalc) was independently associated with MACE, presenting incremental prognostic value over clinical data and CAD severity (χ2 39.5 vs 21.2, p < 0.001 for comparison with a clinical model; and χ2 39.5 vs 35.6, p = 0.04 for comparison with clinical + CAD severity). Patients with obstructive CAD and SISNoncalc > 3 were likely to experience events (HR 4.27, 95% CI 2.17-4.40, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Coronary CTA plaque-based scores provide incremental long-term prognostic value for up to 7 years. Among patients with obstructive CAD, the presence of extensive non-calcified disease (> 3 coronary segments) is associated with increased cardiovascular risk for late events independently of the presence of obstructive CAD. KEY POINTS: • Coronary CTA plaque-based scores are long-term prognostic markers in patients with stable CAD. • Besides obstructive CAD, the segment involvement score of non-calcified disease of 3 or more independently increased the risk of cardiovascular events.

CT-derived pectoralis composition and incident pneumonia hospitalization using fully automated deep-learning algorithm: multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia-related hospitalization may be associated with advanced skeletal muscle loss due to aging (i.e., sarcopenia) or chronic illnesses (i.e., cachexia). Early detection of muscle loss may now be feasible using deep-learning algorithms applied on conventional chest CT. OBJECTIVES: To implement a fully automated deep-learning algorithm for pectoralis muscle measures from conventional chest CT and investigate longitudinal associations between these measures and incident pneumonia hospitalization according to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) status. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This analysis from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis included participants with available chest CT examinations between 2010 and 2012. We implemented pectoralis muscle composition measures from a fully automated deep-learning algorithm (Mask R-CNN, built on the Faster Region Proposal Network (R-) Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with an extension for mask identification) for two-dimensional segmentation. Associations between CT-derived measures and incident pneumonia hospitalizations were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for multiple confounders which include but are not limited to age, sex, race, smoking, BMI, physical activity, and forced-expiratory-volume-at-1 s-to-functional-vital-capacity ratio. Stratification analyses were conducted based on baseline COPD status. RESULTS: This study included 2595 participants (51% female; median age: 68 (IQR: 61, 76)) CT examinations for whom we implemented deep learning-derived measures for longitudinal analyses. Eighty-six incident pneumonia hospitalizations occurred during a median 6.67-year follow-up. Overall, pectoralis muscle composition measures did not predict incident pneumonia. However, in fully-adjusted models, only among participants with COPD (N = 507), CT measures like extramyocellular fat index (hazard ratio: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.22, 3.21, p value: 0.02), were independently associated with incident pneumonia. CONCLUSION: Reliable deep learning-derived pectoralis muscle measures could predict incident pneumonia hospitalization only among participants with known COPD. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Pectoralis muscle measures obtainable at zero additional cost or radiation exposure from any chest CT may have independent predictive value for clinical outcomes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. KEY POINTS: •Identification of independent and modifiable risk factors of pneumonia can have important clinical impact on patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. •Opportunistic CT measures of adipose tissue within pectoralis muscles using deep-learning algorithms can be quickly obtainable at zero additional cost or radiation exposure. •Deep learning-derived pectoralis muscle measurements of intermuscular fat and its subcomponents are independently associated with subsequent incident pneumonia hospitalization.

Multivariate longitudinal data for survival analysis of cardiovascular event prediction in young adults: insights from a comparative explainable study.

BACKGROUND: Multivariate longitudinal data are under-utilized for survival analysis compared to cross-sectional data (CS - data collected once across cohort). Particularly in cardiovascular risk prediction, despite available methods of longitudinal data analysis, the value of longitudinal information has not been established in terms of improved predictive accuracy and clinical applicability. METHODS: We investigated the value of longitudinal data over and above the use of cross-sectional data via 6 distinct modeling strategies from statistics, machine learning, and deep learning that incorporate repeated measures for survival analysis of the time-to-cardiovascular event in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) cohort. We then examined and compared the use of model-specific interpretability methods (Random Survival Forest Variable Importance) and model-agnostic methods (SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) and Temporal Importance Model Explanation (TIME)) in cardiovascular risk prediction using the top-performing models. RESULTS: In a cohort of 3539 participants, longitudinal information from 35 variables that were repeatedly collected in 6 exam visits over 15 years improved subsequent long-term (17 years after) risk prediction by up to 8.3% in C-index compared to using baseline data (0.78 vs. 0.72), and up to approximately 4% compared to using the last observed CS data (0.75). Time-varying AUC was also higher in models using longitudinal data (0.86-0.87 at 5 years, 0.79-0.81 at 10 years) than using baseline or last observed CS data (0.80-0.86 at 5 years, 0.73-0.77 at 10 years). Comparative model interpretability analysis revealed the impact of longitudinal variables on model prediction on both the individual and global scales among different modeling strategies, as well as identifying the best time windows and best timing within that window for event prediction. The best strategy to incorporate longitudinal data for accuracy was time series massive feature extraction, and the easiest interpretable strategy was trajectory clustering. CONCLUSION: Our analysis demonstrates the added value of longitudinal data in predictive accuracy and epidemiological utility in cardiovascular risk survival analysis in young adults via a unified, scalable framework that compares model performance and explainability. The framework can be extended to a larger number of variables and other longitudinal modeling methods. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00005130, Registration Date: 26/05/2000.

PDAY risk score predicts cardiovascular events in young adults: the CARDIA study.

AIMS: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk prediction equations apply to older adults. For this study, the Pathobiologic Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) risk score, based on post-mortem measurements of atherosclerosis in 15-34-year olds dying accidentally, was used to predict ASCVD events, specifically myocardial infarction and revascularization, in middle age, from risk measured at ≤40 years of age. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA) collected longitudinal cardiovascular risk data, coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores, and ASCVD data beginning at age 18 and 30 years with 30-year follow-up. Predictive accuracy for ASCVD of the PDAY risk score, calculated at baseline (mean age 24) and at all six CARDIA examinations up until year 15, was examined. We also examined whether the presence of CAC improved model discrimination. The cohort for this study comprised 5004 Black and White men and women, at baseline and 3558 with data at year 15. Each standard deviation increase in PDAY score, at each examination, was significantly associated with future ASCVD. Hazard ratios (per standard deviation) increased from 1.74 to 2.04 from year 0 to year 15. C-statistics ranged from 0.771 to 0.794. Coronary artery calcium measurement at age 33-45 years improved risk prediction only if the score was 0. Cumulative risk exposure over the first 15 years of the CARDIA study also had high-predictive value (c-statistic 0.798, 95% confidence interval 0.762-0.835). CONCLUSION: The PDAY risk score may be used in young adults, prior to age 40 years to predict ASCVD events.

Asian Female Athlete's Heart: The CHIEF Heart Study.

Background: The cardiac characteristics of Asian female endurance athletes and strength athletes have rarely been investigated. Methods: This study included 177 Taiwanese young women undergoing military training. Cardiac features were assessed by electrocardiography (ECG) and echocardiography. Then, all participants completed a 3000-meter run to assess endurance capacity, and 89 participants completed a 2-minute push-up test to assess muscular strength. Athletes were those whose exercise performance fell one standard deviation above the mean, and the remaining participants were defined as controls. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of the cardiac characteristics of female athletes. Results: Compared to the female controls, female endurance athletes had a greater QRS duration (ms) (92.12 ± 10.35 vs. 87.26 ± 9.89, p = 0.01) and a higher prevalence of right axis deviation (RAD) (34.9% vs. 11.1%, p < 0.001). There were no differences in any echocardiographic parameters. Greater QRS duration and RAD and lower systolic blood pressure were independent predictors of female endurance athletes [odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals: 1.05 (1.01-1.09), 2.91 (1.12-7.59) and 0.93 (0.88-0.98), respectively]. Female strength athletes had a greater right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) (mm) (28.06 ± 3.57 vs. 25.38 ± 3.61, p = 0.007) but revealed no differences in ECG variables. Greater RVOT was the only predictor of female strength athletes [OR: 1.26 (1.05-1.50)]. Conclusions: In Asian military women, a wider QRS duration and the presence of RAD in ECG rather than heart structure and function were found to characterize endurance athletes, whereas a wider RVOT but no ECG features were found to characterize strength athletes.

Association of Blood Pressure Classification Using the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Blood Pressure Guideline With Risk of Heart Failure and Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are growing in prevalence worldwide. Few studies have assessed to what extent stage 1 hypertension in the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure (BP) guidelines is associated with incident HF and AF. METHODS: Analyses were conducted with a nationwide health claims database collected in the JMDC Claims Database between 2005 and 2018 (n=2 196 437; mean age, 44.0±10.9 years; 58.4% men). No participants were taking antihypertensive medication or had a known history of cardiovascular disease. Each participant was categorized as having normal BP (systolic BP <120 mm Hg and diastolic BP <80 mm Hg; n=1 155 885), elevated BP (systolic BP 120-129 mm Hg and diastolic BP <80 mm Hg; n=337 390), stage 1 hypertension (systolic BP 130-139 mm Hg or diastolic BP 80-89 mm Hg; n=459 820), or stage 2 hypertension (systolic BP ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic BP ≥90 mm Hg; n=243 342). Using Cox proportional hazards models, we identified associations between BP groups and HF/AF events. We also calculated the population attributable fractions to estimate the proportion of HF and AF events that would be preventable if participants with stage 1 and stage 2 hypertension were to have normal BP. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up of 1112±854 days, 28 056 incident HF and 7774 incident AF events occurred. After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios for HF and AF events were 1.10 (95% CI, 1.05-1.15) and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.99-1.17), respectively, for elevated BP; 1.30 (95% CI, 1.26-1.35) and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.13-1.29), respectively, for stage 1 hypertension; and 2.05 (95% CI, 1.97-2.13) and 1.52 (95% CI, 1.41-1.64), respectively, for stage 2 hypertension versus normal BP. Population attributable fractions for HF associated with stage 1 and stage 2 hypertension were 23.2% (95% CI, 20.3%-26.0%) and 51.2% (95% CI, 49.2%-53.1%), respectively. The population attributable fractions for AF associated with stage 1 and stage 2 hypertension were 17.4% (95% CI, 11.5%-22.9%) and 34.3% (95% CI, 29.1%-39.2%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Both stage 1 hypertension and stage 2 hypertension were associated with a greater incidence of HF and AF in the general population. The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association BP classification system may help identify adults at higher risk for HF and AF events.

Change in Left Atrioventricular Coupling Index to Predict Incident Atrial Fibrillation: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

Background Left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) structural and functional parameters have independent prognostic values as predictors of atrial fibrillation (AF). Purpose To investigate the prognostic value of a left atrioventricular coupling index (LACI) and average annualized change in LACI (hereafter, ΔLACI) measured by cardiac MRI to predict incident AF in a population-based sample from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Materials and Methods In a secondary analysis of the prospective MESA, 1911 study participants without clinically recognized AF and cardiovascular disease at baseline had LACI assessed with cardiac MRI at baseline (examination 1, 2000-2002) and 10 years later (examination 5, 2010-2012). LACI was defined as the ratio of LA to LV end-diastolic volumes. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the associations of LACI and average ΔLACI with incident AF. Results Among the 1911 participants (mean age, 59 years ± 9 [standard deviation]; 907 men), 87 incident AF events occurred over 3.9 years ± 0.9 after the second imaging (examination 5). After adjustment for traditional risk factors, greater LACI and ΔLACI were independently associated with AF (hazard ratio, 1.69 [95% CI: 1.46, 1.96] and 1.71 [95% CI: 1.50, 1.94], respectively; both P < .001). Adjusted models for LACI and ΔLACI showed improvement in model discrimination compared with currently used AF risk score (Cohort for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology-Atrial Fibrillation, or CHARGE-AF, score) model (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.78 vs 0.74; and AUC, 0.80 vs 0.74, respectively; both P < .001); and to the final model including individual LA or LV parameters for predicting AF incidence (AUC, 0.78 vs 0.76; and AUC, 0.80 vs 0.78, respectively; both P < .001). Conclusion Atrioventricular coupling (left atrioventricular coupling index [LACI]) and coupling change (annual change in LACI) were strong predictors for atrial fibrillation (AF) in a multiethnic population. Both had incremental prognostic value for predicting AF over traditional risk factors, and superior discrimination compared with the Cohort for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology-Atrial Fibrillation, or CHARGE-AF, score and to individual left atrial or left ventricular parameters. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Leiner in this issue.

Deep Learning-based Automated Aortic Area and Distensibility Assessment: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

This study details application of deep learning for automatic segmentation of the ascending and descending aorta from 2D phase-contrast cine magnetic resonance imaging for automatic aortic analysis on the large MESA cohort with assessment on an external cohort of thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) patients. This study includes images and corresponding analysis of the ascending and descending aorta at the pulmonary artery bifurcation from the MESA study. Train, validation, and internal test sets consisted of 1123 studies (24,282 images), 374 studies (8067 images), and 375 studies (8069 images), respectively. The external test set of TAAs consisted of 37 studies (3224 images). CNN performance was evaluated utilizing a dice coefficient and concordance correlation coefficients (CCC) of geometric parameters. Dice coefficients were as high as 97.55% (CI: 97.47-97.62%) and 93.56% (CI: 84.63-96.68%) on the internal and external test of TAAs, respectively. CCC for maximum and minimum and ascending aortic area were 0.969 and 0.950, respectively, on the internal test set and 0.997 and 0.995, respectively, for the external test. The absolute differences between manual and deep learning segmentations for ascending and descending aortic distensibility were 0.0194 × 10-4 ± 9.67 × 10-4 and 0.002 ± 0.001 mmHg-1, respectively, on the internal test set and 0.44 × 10-4 ± 20.4 × 10-4 and 0.002 ± 0.001 mmHg-1, respectively, on the external test set. We successfully developed a U-Net-based aortic segmentation and analysis algorithm in both MESA and in external cases of TAA.

Comprehensive Metabolic Phenotyping Refines Cardiovascular Risk in Young Adults.

BACKGROUND: Whereas cardiovascular disease (CVD) metrics define risk in individuals >40 years of age, the earliest lesions of CVD appear well before this age. Despite the role of metabolism in CVD antecedents, studies in younger, biracial populations to define precise metabolic risk phenotypes are lacking. METHODS: We studied 2330 White and Black young adults (mean age, 32 years; 45% Black) in the CARDIA study (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) to identify metabolite profiles associated with an adverse CVD phenome (myocardial structure/function, fitness, vascular calcification), mechanisms, and outcomes over 2 decades. Statistical learning methods (elastic nets/principal components analysis) and Cox regression generated parsimonious, metabolite-based risk scores validated in >1800 individuals in the Framingham Heart Study. RESULTS: In the CARDIA study, metabolite profiles quantified in early adulthood were associated with subclinical CVD development over 20 years, specifying known and novel pathways of CVD (eg, transcriptional regulation, brain-derived neurotrophic factor, nitric oxide, renin-angiotensin). We found 2 multiparametric, metabolite-based scores linked independently to vascular and myocardial health, with metabolites included in each score specifying microbial metabolism, hepatic steatosis, oxidative stress, nitric oxide modulation, and collagen metabolism. The metabolite-based vascular scores were lower in men, and myocardial scores were lower in Black participants. Over a nearly 25-year median follow-up in CARDIA, the metabolite-based vascular score (hazard ratio, 0.68 per SD [95% CI, 0.50-0.92]; P=0.01) and myocardial score (hazard ratio, 0.60 per SD [95% CI, 0.45-0.80]; P=0.0005) in the third and fourth decades of life were associated with clinical CVD with a synergistic association with outcome (Pinteraction=0.009). We replicated these findings in 1898 individuals in the Framingham Heart Study over 2 decades, with a similar association with outcome (including interaction), reclassification, and discrimination. In the Framingham Heart Study, the metabolite scores exhibited an age interaction (P=0.0004 for a combined myocardial-vascular score with incident CVD), such that young adults with poorer metabolite-based health scores had highest hazard of future CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic signatures of myocardial and vascular health in young adulthood specify known/novel pathways of metabolic dysfunction relevant to CVD, associated with outcome in 2 independent cohorts. Efforts to include precision measures of metabolic health in risk stratification to interrupt CVD at its earliest stage are warranted.