Patent Foramen Ovale and Oxygenation in Patients with Cystic Fibrosis.

INTRODUCTION: Patent foramen ovale (PFO) affects about 25% of the population. We studied outcomes in cystic fibrosis (CF). METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of patients with CF (PwCF) and age and sex-matched controls who underwent agitated saline contrast (bubble) echocardiography, 1998-2020. We assessed PFO impacts using linear, logistic, quasipoisson and proportional hazards models. RESULT: 59 of 64 PwCF and 88 of 93 controls underwent bubble studies to investigate unexplained hypoxemia or dyspnea. PwCF had higher mean pulmonary artery pressure (PAP, 6.9 mm Hg, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 2.35-11.4), reduced tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE, -3.78 mm, CI = -5.64 to -1.93) and similar right ventricular diastolic sizes. Absent hypoxemia, PFO incidence was similar between PwCF and controls; with hypoxemia, PFO was more common in CF (Odds Ratio [OR] = 5.00, CI = 1.32-19.0). In CF, oxygen supplementation occurred at a percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1%) 22.5 points higher with PFO. Adjusted for FEV1%, PFO was associated with 0.59 more prior year pulmonary exacerbations (CI = 0.20-0.98) and shorter time to next exacerbation (Hazard Ratio = 1.86, CI = 1.06-3.26). Associations between PFO and hypoxemia or exacerbations were insensitive to PAP, TAPSE and CF transmembrane regulator protein modulator treatments. PFO was not associated with CF time to death or lung transplantation (median 1.87 years) adjusted for age, sex, FEV1% and prior year exacerbation counts. CONCLUSION: PFO in CF is associated with hypoxemia at higher FEV1% and more pulmonary exacerbations but not survival.

Mutations in the C-terminal region of the bacteriophage exclusion protein PglX can selectively inactivate restriction in Salmonella.

Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strain LT2 is protected by two DNA restriction-modification systems (HsdRMS and Mod-Res) and a Type I bacteriophage exclusion (BREX) system (BrxA-L). The LB5000 strain was constructed to inactivate restriction but not methylation in all three systems and has been available for decades (L. R. Bullas and J. I. Ryu, J Bacteriol 156:471-474, 1983, https://doi.org/10.1128/jb.156.1.471-474.1983). However, this strain had been heavily mutagenized and contains hundreds of other mutations, including a few in DNA repair genes. Here, we describe the development of a strain that is only mutated for DNA restriction by the three systems and remains competent for DNA modification. We transferred mutations specific to DNA restriction from LB5000 to a wild-type LT2 background. The hsdR and res mutations affected only restriction in the wild-type background, but the brxC and pglZ mutations for the poorly understood BREX system also reduced modification. Amino acids in an unannotated conserved region of PglX in the BREX system were then randomized. Mutations were identified that specifically affected restriction at 37°C but were found to be temperature sensitive for restriction and methylation when tested at 30°C and 42°C. These mutations in PglX are consistent with a domain that communicates DNA methylation information to other BREX effector proteins. Finally, mutations generated in the specificity domain of PglX may have changed the DNA binding site recognized by the BREX system. IMPORTANCE The restriction system mutants constructed in this study will be useful for cloning DNA and transferring plasmids from other bacterial species into Salmonella. We verified which mutations in strain LB5000 resulted in loss of restriction for each restriction-modification system and the BREX system by moving these mutations to a wild-type Salmonella background. The methylase PglX was then mutagenized, which adds to our knowledge of the BREX system that is found in many bacteria but is not well understood. These PglX mutations affected restriction and methylation at different temperatures, which suggests that the C-terminal region of PglX may coordinate interactions between the methylase and other BREX system proteins.

Enhanced epithelial sodium channel activity in neonatal Scnn1b mouse lung attenuates high oxygen-induced lung injury.

Prolonged oxygen therapy leads to oxidative stress, epithelial dysfunction, and acute lung injury in preterm infants and adults. Heterozygous Scnn1b mice, which overexpress lung epithelial sodium channels (ENaC), and their wild-type (WT) C57Bl6 littermates were utilized to study the pathogenesis of high fraction inspired oxygen ([Formula: see text])-induced lung injury. Exposure to high [Formula: see text] from birth to postnatal (PN) day 11 was used to model oxidative stress. Chronic exposure of newborn pups to 85% O2 increased glutathione disulfide (GSSG) and elevated the GSH/GSSG redox potential (Eh) of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF). Longitudinal X-ray imaging and Evans blue-labeled-albumin assays showed that chronic 85% O2 and acute GSSG (400 µM) exposures decreased alveolar fluid clearance (AFC) in the WT lung. Morphometric analysis of WT pups insufflated with GSSG (400 µM) or amiloride (1 µM) showed a reduction in alveologenesis and increased lung injury compared with age-matched control pups. The Scnn1b mouse lung phenotype was not further aggravated by chronic 85% O2 exposure. These outcomes support the hypothesis that exposure to hyperoxia increases GSSG, resulting in reduced lung fluid reabsorption due to inhibition of amiloride-sensitive ENaC. Flavin adenine dinucleotide (FADH2; 10 µM) was effective in recycling GSSG in vivo and promoted alveologenesis, but did not impact AFC nor attenuate fibrosis following high [Formula: see text] exposure. In conclusion, the data indicate that FADH2 may be pivotal for normal lung development, and show that ENaC is a key factor in promoting alveologenesis, sustaining AFC, and attenuating fibrotic lung injury caused by prolonged oxygen therapy in WT mice.

High-mobility group box-1 increases epithelial sodium channel activity and inflammation via the receptor for advanced glycation end products.

Cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease persists and remains life-limiting for many patients. Elevated high-mobility group box-1 protein (HMGB-1) levels and epithelial sodium channel hyperactivity (ENaC) are hallmark features of the CF lung. The objective of this study was to better understand the pathogenic role of HMGB-1 signaling and ENaC in CF airway cells. We hypothesize that HMGB-1 links airway inflammation [via signaling to the receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE)] and airway surface liquid dehydration (via upregulation of ENaC) in the CF lung. We calculated equivalent short-current (Isc) and single-channel ENaC open probability (Po) in normal and CF human small airway epithelial cells (SAEC) in the presence and absence of human HMGB-1 peptide (0.5 µg/mL). In normal SAECs, HMGB-1 increased amiloride-sensitive Isc and elevated ENaC Po from 0.15 ± 0.03 to 0.28 ± 0.04 (P < 0.01). In CF SAECs, ENaC Po increased from 0.45 ± 0.06 to 0.73 ± 0.04 (P < 0.01). Pretreatment with 1 µM FPS-ZM1 (a RAGE inhibitor) attenuated all HMGB-1 effects on ENaC current in normal and CF SAECs. Confocal analysis of SAECs indicates that nuclear size and HMBG-1 localization can be impacted by ENaC dysfunction. Masson's trichrome labeling of mouse lung showed that intraperitoneally injected HMGB-1 significantly increased pulmonary fibrosis. Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from HMGB-1-treated mice showed significant increases in IL-1ß, IL-10, IL-6, IL-27, IL-17A, IFN-ß, and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor compared with vehicle-injected mice (P < 0.05). These studies put forth a new model in which HMGB-1 signaling to RAGE plays an important role in perpetuating ENaC dysfunction and inflammation in the CF lung.

Prospective multicenter randomized patient recruitment and sample collection to enable future measurements of sputum biomarkers of inflammation in an observational study of cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers of inflammation predictive of cystic fibrosis (CF) disease outcomes would increase the power of clinical trials and contribute to better personalization of clinical assessments. A representative patient cohort would improve searching for believable, generalizable, reproducible and accurate biomarkers. METHODS: We recruited patients from Mountain West CF Consortium (MWCFC) care centers for prospective observational study of sputum biomarkers of inflammation. After informed consent, centers enrolled randomly selected patients with CF who were clinically stable sputum producers, 12 years of age and older, without previous organ transplantation. RESULTS: From December 8, 2014 through January 16, 2016, we enrolled 114 patients (53 male) with CF with continuing data collection. Baseline characteristics included mean age 27 years (SD = 12), 80% predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (SD = 23%), 1.0 prior year pulmonary exacerbations (SD = 1.2), home elevation 328 m (SD = 112) above sea level. Compared with other patients in the US CF Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) in 2014, MWCFC patients had similar distribution of sex, age, lung function, weight and rates of exacerbations, diabetes, pancreatic insufficiency, CF-related arthropathy and airway infections including methicillin-sensitive or -resistant Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Burkholderia cepacia complex, fungal and non-tuberculous Mycobacteria infections. They received CF-specific treatments at similar frequencies. CONCLUSIONS: Randomly-selected, sputum-producing patients within the MWCFC represent sputum-producing patients in the CFFPR. They have similar characteristics, lung function and frequencies of pulmonary exacerbations, microbial infections and use of CF-specific treatments. These findings will plausibly make future interpretations of quantitative measurements of inflammatory biomarkers generalizable to sputum-producing patients in the CFFPR.

Thailandamide, a Fatty Acid Synthesis Antibiotic That Is Coexpressed with a Resistant Target Gene.

Microbes encode many uncharacterized gene clusters that may produce antibiotics and other bioactive small molecules. Methods for activating these genes are needed to explore their biosynthetic potential. A transposon containing an inducible promoter was randomly inserted into the genome of the soil bacterium Burkholderia thailandensis to induce antibiotic expression. This screen identified the polyketide/nonribosomal peptide thailandamide as an antibiotic and discovered its regulator, AtsR. Mutants of Salmonella resistant to thailandamide had mutations in the accA gene for acetyl coenzyme A (acetyl-CoA) carboxylase, which is one of the first enzymes in the fatty acid synthesis pathway. A second copy of accA in the thailandamide synthesis gene cluster keeps B. thailandensis resistant to its own antibiotic. These genetic techniques will likely be powerful tools for discovering other unusual antibiotics.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Amikacin in Adult Patients with Cystic Fibrosis.

Practitioners commonly use amikacin in patients with cystic fibrosis. Establishment of the pharmacokinetics of amikacin in adults with cystic fibrosis may increase the efficacy and safety of therapy. This study was aimed to establish the population pharmacokinetics of amikacin in adults with cystic fibrosis. We used serum concentration data obtained during routine therapeutic drug monitoring and explored the influence of patient covariates on drug disposition. We performed a retrospective chart review to collect the amikacin dosing regimens, serum amikacin concentrations, blood sampling times, and patient characteristics for adults with cystic fibrosis admitted for treatment of acute pulmonary exacerbations. Amikacin concentrations were retrospectively collected for 49 adults with cystic fibrosis, and 192 serum concentrations were available for analysis. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling with the first-order conditional estimation method. A two-compartment model with first-order elimination best described amikacin pharmacokinetics. Creatinine clearance and weight were identified as significant covariates for clearance and the volume of distribution, respectively, in the final model. Residual variability was modeled using a proportional error model. Typical estimates for clearance, central and peripheral volumes of distribution, and intercompartmental clearance were 3.06 liters/h, 14.4 liters, 17.1 liters, and 0.925 liters/h, respectively. The pharmacokinetics of amikacin in individuals with cystic fibrosis seems to differ from those in individuals without cystic fibrosis. However, further investigations are needed to confirm these results and, thus, the need for variations in amikacin dosing. Future pharmacodynamic studies will potentially establish the optimal amikacin dosing regimens for the treatment of acute pulmonary exacerbations in adult patients with CF.

Microbial Interactions in the Cystic Fibrosis Airway.

Interactions in the airway ecology of cystic fibrosis may alter organism persistence and clinical outcomes. Better understanding of such interactions could guide clinical decisions. We used generalized estimating equations to fit logistic regression models to longitudinal 2-year patient cohorts in the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry, 2003 to 2011, in order to study associations between the airway organisms present in each calendar year and their presence in the subsequent year. Models were adjusted for clinical characteristics and multiple observations per patient. Adjusted models were tested for sensitivity to cystic fibrosis-specific treatments. The study included 28,042 patients aged 6 years and older from 257 accredited U.S. care centers and affiliates. These patients had produced sputum specimens for at least two consecutive years that were cultured for methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus, methicillin-resistant S. aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Burkholderia cepacia complex, Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, Achromobacter xylosoxidans, and Candida and Aspergillus species. We analyzed 99.8% of 538,458 sputum cultures from the patients during the study period. Methicillin-sensitive S. aureus was negatively associated with subsequent Paeruginosa. Paeruginosa was negatively associated with subsequent B. cepacia complex, Axylosoxidans, and Smaltophilia. Bcepacia complex was negatively associated with the future presence of all bacteria studied, as well as with that of Aspergillus species. Paeruginosa, B. cepacia complex, and S. maltophilia were each reciprocally and positively associated with Aspergillus species. Independently of patient characteristics, the organisms studied interact and alter the outcomes of treatment decisions, sometimes in unexpected ways. By inhibiting P. aeruginosa, methicillin-sensitive S. aureus may delay lung disease progression. Paeruginosa and B. cepacia complex may inhibit other organisms by decreasing airway biodiversity, potentially worsening lung disease.

Predicting weight gain in patients with cystic fibrosis on triple combination modulator.

BACKGROUND: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is caused by CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene mutations producing dysfunctional CFTR proteins leading to progressive clinical disease. Elexacaftor-tezacaftor-ivacaftor (ETI) remarkably improves lung disease but is associated with substantial weight gain. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a single-center longitudinal study predicting 6-month weight gain after ETI initiation. We used linear mixed effects modeling (LME) to determine association of ETI treatment with changing body mass index (BMI). Using linear regression, we examined BMI prediction models with distinct combinations of main effects to identify a model useful for patient counseling. We used up to eight commonly observed clinical characteristics as input variables (age, sex, percent predicted FEV1 [FEV1%], F508del homozygous state, pancreatic sufficiency, HgbA1c, prior modulator use and prior year number of pulmonary exacerbations). RESULTS: We evaluated 154 patients (19-73 years old, 54% female, FEV1% = 19-121, 0-6 prior year pulmonary exacerbations). LME demonstrated an association between ETI use and weight increases. Exhaustive testing suggested a parsimonious linear regression model well-fitted to data that is potentially useful for counseling. The two variable model shows that on average, BMI decreases by 0.045 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] = -0.069 to -0.021, p < 0.001) for every year of age and increases by 0.322 (CI = 0.142 to 0.502, p = 0.001) for each additional prior year exacerbation at the time of ETI initiation. INTERPRETATION: Young patients with many prior year pulmonary exacerbations likely have the largest 6 month weight gain after starting ETI.

A comparison of aminoglycoside antibiotic serum concentrations collected by peripheral veins and peripherally inserted central catheters in adults with cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: People with cystic fibrosis (PwCF) are frequently hospitalized for treatment of pulmonary exacerbation. The Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Pulmonary Guidelines support the use of intravenous aminoglycosides with therapeutic drug monitoring for the treatment of pulmonary exacerbation due to Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Serum intravenous tobramycin concentrations are commonly collected by peripheral venipuncture (PV). Discomfort associated with collection of samples by PV prompts collection via PICC, but the accuracy of intravenous tobramycin serum levels collected by PICC has not been documented in adult PwCF. The primary study objective was to evaluate the difference between intravenous tobramycin serum levels collected by PV and PICC in adult PwCF. METHODS: The authors conducted a prospective case-control study of adult PwCF admitted to University of Utah Health for a pulmonary exacerbation receiving tobramycin by a single lumen PICC. The authors compared tobramycin peak and random serum levels collected by PV and PICC using a detailed flush and waste protocol. RESULTS: The authors analyzed a total of 19 patients with peripheral and PICC samples. The mean tobramycin peak collected by PV (27.2 mcg/mL) was similar to the mean peak collected by PICC (26.9 mcg/mL) (paired samples Wilcoxon signed-rank test, p = .94). The correlation coefficient was 0.88 (95% CI = 0.85-0.91, p < .001). CONCLUSION: Tobramycin serum samples collected by PICC appear to be similar in value to PV collections. Collecting aminoglycoside levels by PICC rather than PV may reduce patient discomfort and improve quality of life. Additional multicenter studies are needed to confirm these results.

Efficacy and safety of LAU-7b in a Phase 2 trial in adults with cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Lung inflammation is associated with tissue damage in cystic fibrosis (CF). LAU-7b, a novel oral drug candidate, was shown to control inflammation and stabilize CFTR protein in the epithelial membrane during inflammatory stress in preclinical models of CF. METHODS: A double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled Phase 2 study was conducted to evaluate efficacy and safety of LAU-7b in adults with CF. LAU-7b or placebo was administered over 24 weeks as six 21-day treatment cycles each separated by 7 days. The primary efficacy endpoint was the absolute change from baseline in percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (ppFEV1) at 24 weeks. RESULTS: A total of 166 subjects received at least one dose of study drug (Intent-To-Treat population, ITT), of which 122 received ≥5 treatment cycles (Per-Protocol population, PP). Both treatment arms showed a mean lung function loss at 24 weeks of 1.18 ppFEV1 points with LAU-7b and 1.95 ppFEV1 with placebo, a 0.77 ppFEV1 (40 s) difference, p=0.345, and a 0.95 ppFEV1 (49 %) difference in the same direction in PP population, p=0.263. Primary analysis of mean ppFEV1 through 24 weeks showed differences of 1.01 and 1.23 ppFEV1, in the ITT (65 % less loss, p=0.067) and PP populations (78 % less loss, reaching statistical significance p=0.049), respectively. LAU-7b had an acceptable safety profile. CONCLUSION: Although the study did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint in the ITT population, LAU-7b was generally well tolerated and showed evidence of preservation of lung function to support further development.

Impact of Discontinuing Both Hypertonic Saline and Dornase Alfa After Elexacaftor/Tezacaftor/Ivacaftor in Cystic Fibrosis.

Rationale Evaluating approaches to reduce treatment burden is a research priority among people with CF (pwCF) on highly effective modulators including elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor (ETI). Objective To evaluate the impact of discontinuing both hypertonic saline (HS) and dornase alfa (DA) versus continuing both therapies among a subgroup of participants in the SIMPLIFY study who sequentially participated in trials evaluating the independent clinical effects of discontinuing HS and DA. Methods SIMPLIFY participants ≥12 years old on ETI and comprising a subgroup using both HS and DA at study entry were randomized to the HS or DA trial, and then randomized 1:1 to continue or discontinue the applicable therapy for 6 weeks. After completion of the first trial, eligible participants could enroll in the second trial beginning with a 2-week run in. Study outcomes were compared across the duration of SIMPLIFY participation between a cohort remaining on both therapies during SIMPLIFY versus a cohort that sequentially discontinued both as a result of trial randomizations. Multivariable regression models were used to estimate treatment differences, adjusted for time between trials, trial order, baseline age, sex at birth and percent predicted forced expiratory volume in one second (ppFEV1) at study entry. Results There were 43 participants who discontinued both therapies by the end of SIMPLIFY and 63 who remained on both, with overall average ppFEV1 at study entry 96.7% and average duration of follow up from beginning of the first trial to completion of the second trial 3.9 months, including time between trials. No clinically meaningful difference in the change in ppFEV1 from baseline to completion of the second trial was observed between those who discontinued versus remained on both therapies (difference: 0.22% Off-On, 95% CI: -1.60,2.03). Changes in LCI2.5, patient reported, and safety outcomes were also comparable. Patient reported treatment burden, as measured by a CFQ-R subscale, significantly decreased in those discontinuing both therapies. Conclusions SIMPLIFY participants who sequentially discontinued both HS and DA experienced no meaningful changes in clinical outcomes and reported decreased treatment burden as compared to those who remained on both therapies. These data continue to inform a new era of post-modulator care of pwCF.

Airway inflammation accelerates pulmonary exacerbations in cystic fibrosis.

Airway inflammation underlies cystic fibrosis (CF) pulmonary exacerbations. In a prospective multicenter study of randomly selected, clinically stable adolescents and adults, we assessed relationships between 24 inflammation-associated molecules and the future occurrence of CF pulmonary exacerbation using proportional hazards models. We explored relationships for potential confounding or mediation by clinical factors and assessed sensitivities to treatments including CF transmembrane regulator (CFTR) protein synthesis modulators. Results from 114 participants, including seven on ivacaftor or lumacaftor-ivacaftor, representative of the US CF population during the study period, identified 10 biomarkers associated with future exacerbations mediated by percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s. The findings were not sensitive to anti-inflammatory, antibiotic, and CFTR modulator treatments. The analyses suggest that combination treatments addressing RAGE-axis inflammation, protease-mediated injury, and oxidative stress might prevent pulmonary exacerbations. Our work may apply to other airway inflammatory diseases such as bronchiectasis and the acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Calibration and validation of modeled 5-year survival predictions among people with cystic fibrosis treated with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulator ivacaftor using United States registry data.

OBJECTIVES: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a rare genetic disease characterized by life-shortening lung function decline. Ivacaftor, a CF transmembrane conductance regulator modulator (CFTRm), was approved in 2012 for people with CF with specific gene mutations. We used real-world evidence of 5-year mortality impacts of ivacaftor in a US registry population to validate a CF disease-progression model that estimates the impact of ivacaftor on survival. METHODS: The model projects the impact of ivacaftor vs. standard care in people with CF aged ≥6 years with CFTR gating mutations by combining parametric equations fitted to historical registry survival data, with mortality hazards adjusted for fixed and time-varying person-level characteristics. Disease progression with standard care was derived from published registry studies and the expected impact of ivacaftor on clinical characteristics was derived from clinical trials. Individual-level baseline characteristics of the registry ivacaftor-treated population were entered into the model; 5-year model-projected mortality with credible intervals (CrIs) was compared with registry mortality to evaluate the model's validity. RESULTS: Post-calibration 5-year mortality projections closely approximated registry mortality in populations treated with standard care (6.4% modeled [95% CrI: 5.3% to 7.6%] vs. 6.0% observed) and ivacaftor (3.4% modeled [95% CrI: 2.7% to 4.4%] vs. 3.1% observed). The model accurately predicted 5-year relative risk of mortality (0.53 modeled [0.47 to 0.60] vs. 0.51 observed) in people treated with ivacaftor vs. standard care. CONCLUSIONS: Modeled 5-year survival projections for people with CF initiating ivacaftor vs. standard care align closely with real-world registry data. Findings support the validity of modeling CF to predict long-term survival and estimate clinical and economic outcomes of CFTRm.

Lung Function Decline in Cystic Fibrosis: Impact of Data Availability and Modeling Strategies on Clinical Interpretations.

Rationale: Studies estimating the rate of lung function decline in cystic fibrosis have been inconsistent regarding the methods used. How the methodology used impacts the validity of the results and comparability between studies is unknown. Objectives: The Cystic Fibrosis Foundation established a work group whose tasks were to examine the impact of differing approaches to estimating the rate of decline in lung function and to provide analysis guidelines. Methods: We used a natural history cohort of 35,252 individuals with cystic fibrosis aged ⩾6 years in the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR), 2003-2016. Modeling strategies using linear and nonlinear forms of marginal and mixed-effects models, which have previously quantified the rate of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) decline (percent predicted per year), were evaluated under clinically relevant scenarios of available lung function data. Scenarios varied by sample size (overall CFFPR, medium-sized cohort of 3,000 subjects, and small-sized cohort of 150), data collection/reporting frequency (encounter, quarterly, and annual), inclusion of FEV1 during pulmonary exacerbation, and follow-up length (<2 yr, 2-5 yr, entire duration). Results: Rate of FEV1 decline estimates (percent predicted per year) differed between linear marginal and mixed-effects models; overall cohort estimates (95% confidence interval) were 1.26 (1.24-1.29) and 1.40 (1.38-1.42), respectively. Marginal models consistently estimated less rapid lung function decline than mixed-effects models across scenarios, except for short-term follow-up (both were ∼1.4). Rate of decline estimates from nonlinear models diverged by age 30. Among mixed-effects models, nonlinear and stochastic terms fit best, except for short-term follow-up (<2 yr). Overall CFFPR analysis from a joint longitudinal-survival model implied that an increase in rate of decline of 1% predicted per year in FEV1 was associated with a 1.52-fold (52%) increase in the hazard of death/lung transplant, but the results exhibited immortal cohort bias. Conclusions: Differences were as high as 0.5% predicted per year between rate of decline estimates, but we found estimates were robust to lung function data availability scenarios, except short-term follow-up and older age ranges. Inconsistencies among previous study results may be attributable to inherent differences in study design, inclusion criteria, or covariate adjustment. Results-based decision points reported herein will support researchers in selecting a strategy to model lung function decline most reflective of nuanced, study-specific goals.

Forced Expiratory Flow at 25%-75% Links COPD Physiology to Emphysema and Disease Severity in the SPIROMICS Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) is central to the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) but is imprecise in classifying disease burden. We examined the potential of the maximal mid-expiratory flow rate (forced expiratory flow rate between 25% and 75% [FEF25%-75%]) as an additional tool for characterizing pathophysiology in COPD. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether FEF25%-75% helps predict clinical and radiographic abnormalities in COPD. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The SubPopulations and InteRediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) enrolled a prospective cohort of 2978 nonsmokers and ever-smokers, with and without COPD, to identify phenotypes and intermediate markers of disease progression. We used baseline data from 2771 ever-smokers from the SPIROMICS cohort to identify associations between percent predicted FEF25%-75% (%predFEF25%-75%) and both clinical markers and computed tomography (CT) findings of smoking-related lung disease. RESULTS: Lower %predFEF25-75% was associated with more severe disease, manifested radiographically by increased functional small airways disease, emphysema (most notably with homogeneous distribution), CT-measured residual volume, total lung capacity (TLC), and airway wall thickness, and clinically by increased symptoms, decreased 6-minute walk distance, and increased bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR). A lower %predFEF25-75% remained significantly associated with increased emphysema, functional small airways disease, TLC, and BDR after adjustment for FEV1 or forced vital capacity (FVC). INTERPRETATION: The %predFEF25-75% provides additional information about disease manifestation beyond FEV1. These associations may reflect loss of elastic recoil and air trapping from emphysema and intrinsic small airways disease. Thus, %predFEF25-75% helps link the anatomic pathology and deranged physiology of COPD.

Predicting survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension: insights from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL).

BACKGROUND: Factors that determine survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) drive clinical management. A quantitative survival prediction tool has not been established for research or clinical use. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 2716 patients with PAH enrolled consecutively in the US Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL) were analyzed to assess predictors of 1-year survival. We identified independent prognosticators of survival and derived a multivariable, weighted risk formula for clinical use. One-year survival from the date of enrollment was 91.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.9 to 92.1). In a multivariable analysis with Cox proportional hazards, variables independently associated with increased mortality included pulmonary vascular resistance >32 Wood units (hazard ratio [HR], 4.1; 95% CI, 2.0 to 8.3), PAH associated with portal hypertension (HR, 3.6; 95% CI, 2.4 to 5.4), modified New York Heart Association/World Health Organization functional class IV (HR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.2 to 4.4), men >60 years of age (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6 to 3.0), and family history of PAH (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2 to 4.0). Renal insufficiency, PAH associated with connective tissue disease, functional class III, mean right atrial pressure, resting systolic blood pressure and heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide, percent predicted carbon monoxide diffusing capacity, and pericardial effusion on echocardiogram all predicted mortality. Based on these multivariable analyses, a prognostic equation was derived and validated by bootstrapping technique. CONCLUSIONS: We identified key predictors of survival based on the patient's most recent evaluation and formulated a contemporary prognostic equation. Use of this tool may allow the individualization and optimization of therapeutic strategies. Serial follow-up and reassessment are warranted. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00370214.

Lung Transplantation and Survival in Children with Cystic Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: The effects of lung transplantation on the survival and quality of life in children with cystic fibrosis are uncertain. METHODS: We used data from the U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry and from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network to identify children with cystic fibrosis who were on the waiting list for lung transplantation during the period from 1992 through 2002. We performed proportional-hazards survival modeling, using multiple clinically relevant covariates that were available before the children were on the waiting list and the interactions of these covariates with lung transplantation as a time-dependent covariate. The data were insufficient in quality and quantity for a retrospective quality-of-life analysis. RESULTS: A total of 248 of the 514 children on the waiting list underwent lung transplantation in the United States during the period from 1992 through 2002. Proportional-hazards modeling identified four variables besides transplantation that were associated with changes in survival. Burkholderia cepacia infection was associated with a trend toward decreased survival, regardless of whether the patient underwent transplantation. A diagnosis of diabetes before the patient was placed on the waiting list decreased survival while the patient was on the waiting list but did not decrease survival after transplantation, whereas older age did not affect waiting-list survival but decreased post-transplantation survival. Staphylococcus aureus infection increased waiting-list survival but decreased post-transplantation survival. Using age, diabetes status, and S. aureus infection status as covariates, we estimated the effect of transplantation on survival for each patient group, expressed as a hazard factor of less than 1 for a benefit and more than 1 for a risk of harm. Five patients had a significant estimated benefit, 283 patients had a significant risk of harm, 102 patients had an insignificant benefit, and 124 patients had an insignificant risk of harm associated with lung transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses estimated clearly improved survival for only 5 of 514 patients on the waiting list for lung transplantation. Prolongation of life by means of lung transplantation should not be expected in children with cystic fibrosis. A prospective, randomized trial is needed to clarify whether and when patients derive a survival and quality-of-life benefit from lung transplantation.