Iron dysregulation and inflammatory stress erythropoiesis associates with long-term outcome of COVID-19.

Persistent symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 infection are increasingly reported, although the drivers of post-acute sequelae (PASC) of COVID-19 are unclear. Here we assessed 214 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, with varying disease severity, for one year from COVID-19 symptom onset to determine the early correlates of PASC. A multivariate signature detected beyond two weeks of disease, encompassing unresolving inflammation, anemia, low serum iron, altered iron-homeostasis gene expression and emerging stress erythropoiesis; differentiated those who reported PASC months later, irrespective of COVID-19 severity. A whole-blood heme-metabolism signature, enriched in hospitalized patients at month 1-3 post onset, coincided with pronounced iron-deficient reticulocytosis. Lymphopenia and low numbers of dendritic cells persisted in those with PASC, and single-cell analysis reported iron maldistribution, suggesting monocyte iron loading and increased iron demand in proliferating lymphocytes. Thus, defects in iron homeostasis, dysregulated erythropoiesis and immune dysfunction due to COVID-19 possibly contribute to inefficient oxygen transport, inflammatory disequilibrium and persisting symptomatology, and may be therapeutically tractable.

A patient-centric modeling framework captures recovery from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The biology driving individual patient responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection remains ill understood. Here, we developed a patient-centric framework leveraging detailed longitudinal phenotyping data and covering a year after disease onset, from 215 infected individuals with differing disease severities. Our analyses revealed distinct 'systemic recovery' profiles, with specific progression and resolution of the inflammatory, immune cell, metabolic and clinical responses. In particular, we found a strong inter-patient and intra-patient temporal covariation of innate immune cell numbers, kynurenine metabolites and lipid metabolites, which highlighted candidate immunologic and metabolic pathways influencing the restoration of homeostasis, the risk of death and that of long COVID. Based on these data, we identified a composite signature predictive of systemic recovery, using a joint model on cellular and molecular parameters measured soon after disease onset. New predictions can be generated using the online tool http://shiny.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/apps/covid-19-systemic-recovery-prediction-app , designed to test our findings prospectively.

Dynamic regulation of hypoxia-inducible factor-1α activity is essential for normal B cell development.

B lymphocyte development and selection are central to adaptive immunity and self-tolerance. These processes require B cell receptor (BCR) signaling and occur in bone marrow, an environment with variable hypoxia, but whether hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) is involved is unknown. We show that HIF activity is high in human and murine bone marrow pro-B and pre-B cells and decreases at the immature B cell stage. This stage-specific HIF suppression is required for normal B cell development because genetic activation of HIF-1α in murine B cells led to reduced repertoire diversity, decreased BCR editing and developmental arrest of immature B cells, resulting in reduced peripheral B cell numbers. HIF-1α activation lowered surface BCR, CD19 and B cell-activating factor receptor and increased expression of proapoptotic BIM. BIM deletion rescued the developmental block. Administration of a HIF activator in clinical use markedly reduced bone marrow and transitional B cells, which has therapeutic implications. Together, our work demonstrates that dynamic regulation of HIF-1α is essential for normal B cell development.

Longitudinal analysis reveals that delayed bystander CD8+ T cell activation and early immune pathology distinguish severe COVID-19 from mild disease.

The kinetics of the immune changes in COVID-19 across severity groups have not been rigorously assessed. Using immunophenotyping, RNA sequencing, and serum cytokine analysis, we analyzed serial samples from 207 SARS-CoV2-infected individuals with a range of disease severities over 12 weeks from symptom onset. An early robust bystander CD8+ T cell immune response, without systemic inflammation, characterized asymptomatic or mild disease. Hospitalized individuals had delayed bystander responses and systemic inflammation that was already evident near symptom onset, indicating that immunopathology may be inevitable in some individuals. Viral load did not correlate with this early pathological response but did correlate with subsequent disease severity. Immune recovery is complex, with profound persistent cellular abnormalities in severe disease correlating with altered inflammatory responses, with signatures associated with increased oxidative phosphorylation replacing those driven by cytokines tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and interleukin (IL)-6. These late immunometabolic and immune defects may have clinical implications.

Human SNP links differential outcomes in inflammatory and infectious disease to a FOXO3-regulated pathway.

The clinical course and eventual outcome, or prognosis, of complex diseases varies enormously between affected individuals. This variability critically determines the impact a disease has on a patient's life but is very poorly understood. Here, we exploit existing genome-wide association study data to gain insight into the role of genetics in prognosis. We identify a noncoding polymorphism in FOXO3A (rs12212067: T > G) at which the minor (G) allele, despite not being associated with disease susceptibility, is associated with a milder course of Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis and with increased risk of severe malaria. Minor allele carriage is shown to limit inflammatory responses in monocytes via a FOXO3-driven pathway, which through TGFß1 reduces production of proinflammatory cytokines, including TNFα, and increases production of anti-inflammatory cytokines, including IL-10. Thus, we uncover a shared genetic contribution to prognosis in distinct diseases that operates via a FOXO3-driven pathway modulating inflammatory responses.

Age-related immune response heterogeneity to SARS-CoV-2 vaccine BNT162b2.

Although two-dose mRNA vaccination provides excellent protection against SARS-CoV-2, there is little information about vaccine efficacy against variants of concern (VOC) in individuals above eighty years of age1. Here we analysed immune responses following vaccination with the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine2 in elderly participants and younger healthcare workers. Serum neutralization and levels of binding IgG or IgA after the first vaccine dose were lower in older individuals, with a marked drop in participants over eighty years old. Sera from participants above eighty showed lower neutralization potency against the B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta) and P.1. (Gamma) VOC than against the wild-type virus and were more likely to lack any neutralization against VOC following the first dose. However, following the second dose, neutralization against VOC was detectable regardless of age. The frequency of SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific memory B cells was higher in elderly responders (whose serum showed neutralization activity) than in non-responders after the first dose. Elderly participants showed a clear reduction in somatic hypermutation of class-switched cells. The production of interferon-γ and interleukin-2 by SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific T cells was lower in older participants, and both cytokines were secreted primarily by CD4 T cells. We conclude that the elderly are a high-risk population and that specific measures to boost vaccine responses in this population are warranted, particularly where variants of concern are circulating.

Targeting NF-κB signaling in B cells as a potential new treatment modality for ANCA-associated vasculitis.

B lineage cells are critically involved in ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV), evidenced by alterations in circulating B cell subsets and beneficial clinical effects of rituximab (anti-CD20) therapy. This treatment renders a long-term, peripheral B cell depletion, but allows for the survival of long-lived plasma cells. Therefore, there is an unmet need for more reversible and full B lineage cell targeting approaches. To find potential novel therapeutic targets, RNA sequencing of CD27+ memory B cells of patients with active AAV was performed, revealing an upregulated NF-κB-associated gene signature. NF-κB signaling pathways act downstream of various B cell surface receptors, including the BCR, CD40, BAFFR and TLRs, and are essential for B cell responses. Here we demonstrate that novel pharmacological inhibitors of NF-κB inducing kinase (NIK, non-canonical NF-κB signaling) and inhibitor-of-κB-kinase-ß (IKKß, canonical NF-κB signaling) can effectively inhibit NF-κB signaling in B cells, whereas T cell responses were largely unaffected. Moreover, both inhibitors significantly reduced B cell proliferation, differentiation and production of antibodies, including proteinase-3 (PR3) autoantibodies, in B lineage cells of AAV patients. These findings indicate that targeting NF-κB, particularly NIK, may be an effective, novel B lineage cell targeted therapy for AAV and other autoimmune diseases with prominent B cell involvement.

Obesity Is Associated with Attenuated Tissue Immunity in COVID-19.

Rationale: Obesity affects 40% of U.S. adults, is associated with a proinflammatory state, and presents a significant risk factor for the development of severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19). To date, there is limited information on how obesity might affect immune cell responses in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Objectives: To determine the impact of obesity on respiratory tract immunity in COVID-19 across the human lifespan. Methods: We analyzed single-cell transcriptomes from BAL in three ventilated adult cohorts with (n = 24) or without (n = 9) COVID-19 from nasal immune cells in children with (n = 14) or without (n = 19) COVID-19, and from peripheral blood mononuclear cells in an independent adult COVID-19 cohort (n = 42), comparing obese and nonobese subjects. Measurements and Main Results: Surprisingly, we found that obese adult subjects had attenuated lung immune or inflammatory responses in SARS-CoV-2 infection, with decreased expression of IFN-α, IFN-γ, and TNF-α (tumor necrosis factor α) response gene signatures in almost all lung epithelial and immune cell subsets, and lower expression of IFNG and TNF in specific lung immune cells. Peripheral blood immune cells in an independent adult cohort showed a similar but less marked reduction in type-I IFN and IFNγ response genes, as well as decreased serum IFNα, in obese patients with SARS-CoV-2. Nasal immune cells from obese children with COVID-19 also showed reduced enrichment of IFN-α and IFN-γ response genes. Conclusions: These findings show blunted tissue immune responses in obese patients with COVID-19, with implications for treatment stratification, supporting the specific application of inhaled recombinant type-I IFNs in this vulnerable subset.

Identification of new risk loci shared across systemic vasculitides points towards potential target genes for drug repurposing.

OBJECTIVES: The number of susceptibility loci currently associated with vasculitis is lower than in other immune-mediated diseases due in part to small cohort sizes, a consequence of the low prevalence of vasculitides. This study aimed to identify new genetic risk loci for the main systemic vasculitides through a comprehensive analysis of their genetic overlap. METHODS: Genome-wide data from 8467 patients with any of the main forms of vasculitis and 29 795 healthy controls were meta-analysed using ASSET. Pleiotropic variants were functionally annotated and linked to their target genes. Prioritised genes were queried in DrugBank to identify potentially repositionable drugs for the treatment of vasculitis. RESULTS: Sixteen variants were independently associated with two or more vasculitides, 15 of them representing new shared risk loci. Two of these pleiotropic signals, located close to CTLA4 and CPLX1, emerged as novel genetic risk loci in vasculitis. Most of these polymorphisms appeared to affect vasculitis by regulating gene expression. In this regard, for some of these common signals, potential causal genes were prioritised based on functional annotation, including CTLA4, RNF145, IL12B, IL5, IRF1, IFNGR1, PTK2B, TRIM35, EGR2 and ETS2, each of which has key roles in inflammation. In addition, drug repositioning analysis showed that several drugs, including abatacept and ustekinumab, could be potentially repurposed in the management of the analysed vasculitides. CONCLUSIONS: We identified new shared risk loci with functional impact in vasculitis and pinpointed potential causal genes, some of which could represent promising targets for the treatment of vasculitis.

Efficacy of cannabidiol in convulsive and nonconvulsive seizure types associated with treatment-resistant epilepsies in the Expanded Access Program.

The cannabidiol (CBD) Expanded Access Program (EAP), initiated in 2014, provided CBD (Epidiolex) to patients with treatment-resistant epilepsy (TRE). In the final pooled analysis of 892 patients treated through January 2019 (median exposure = 694 days), CBD treatment was associated with a 46%-66% reduction in median monthly total (convulsive plus nonconvulsive) seizure frequency. CBD was well tolerated, and adverse events were consistent with previous findings. We used pooled EAP data to investigate the effectiveness of add-on CBD therapy for individual convulsive seizure types (clonic, tonic, tonic-clonic, atonic, focal to bilateral tonic-clonic), nonconvulsive seizure types (focal with and without impaired consciousness, absence [typical and atypical], myoclonic, myoclonic absence), and epileptic spasms. CBD treatment was associated with a reduction in the frequency of convulsive seizure types (median percentage reduction = 47%-100%), and nonconvulsive seizure types and epileptic spasms (median percentage reduction = 50%-100%) across visit intervals through 144 weeks of treatment. Approximately 50% of patients had ≥50% reduction in convulsive and nonconvulsive seizure types and epileptic spasms at nearly all intervals. These results show a favorable effect of long-term CBD use in patients with TRE, who may experience various convulsive and nonconvulsive seizure types. Future controlled trials are needed to confirm these findings.

Brain injury in COVID-19 is associated with dysregulated innate and adaptive immune responses.

COVID-19 is associated with neurological complications including stroke, delirium and encephalitis. Furthermore, a post-viral syndrome dominated by neuropsychiatric symptoms is common, and is seemingly unrelated to COVID-19 severity. The true frequency and underlying mechanisms of neurological injury are unknown, but exaggerated host inflammatory responses appear to be a key driver of COVID-19 severity. We investigated the dynamics of, and relationship between, serum markers of brain injury [neurofilament light (NfL), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and total tau] and markers of dysregulated host response (autoantibody production and cytokine profiles) in 175 patients admitted with COVID-19 and 45 patients with influenza. During hospitalization, sera from patients with COVID-19 demonstrated elevations of NfL and GFAP in a severity-dependent manner, with evidence of ongoing active brain injury at follow-up 4 months later. These biomarkers were associated with elevations of pro-inflammatory cytokines and the presence of autoantibodies to a large number of different antigens. Autoantibodies were commonly seen against lung surfactant proteins but also brain proteins such as myelin associated glycoprotein. Commensurate findings were seen in the influenza cohort. A distinct process characterized by elevation of serum total tau was seen in patients at follow-up, which appeared to be independent of initial disease severity and was not associated with dysregulated immune responses unlike NfL and GFAP. These results demonstrate that brain injury is a common consequence of both COVID-19 and influenza, and is therefore likely to be a feature of severe viral infection more broadly. The brain injury occurs in the context of dysregulation of both innate and adaptive immune responses, with no single pathogenic mechanism clearly responsible.

Autoantibody Profiling and Anti-Kinesin Reactivity in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis.

ANCA-associated vasculitides (AAV) are rare autoimmune diseases causing inflammation and damage to small blood vessels. New autoantibody biomarkers are needed to improve the diagnosis and treatment of AAV patients. In this study, we aimed to profile the autoantibody repertoire of AAV patients using in-house developed antigen arrays to identify previously unreported antibodies linked to the disease per se, clinical subgroups, or clinical activity. A total of 1743 protein fragments representing 1561 unique proteins were screened in 229 serum samples collected from 137 AAV patients at presentation, remission, and relapse. Additionally, serum samples from healthy individuals and patients with other type of vasculitis and autoimmune-inflammatory conditions were included to evaluate the specificity of the autoantibodies identified in AAV. Autoreactivity against members of the kinesin protein family were identified in AAV patients, healthy volunteers, and disease controls. Anti-KIF4A antibodies were significantly more prevalent in AAV. We also observed possible associations between anti-kinesin antibodies and clinically relevant features within AAV patients. Further verification studies will be needed to confirm these findings.

c-Rel employs multiple mechanisms to promote the thymic development and peripheral function of regulatory T cells in mice.

The NF-κB transcription factor c-Rel is a critical regulator of Treg ontogeny, controlling multiple points of the stepwise developmental pathway. Here, we found that the thymic Treg defect in c-Rel-deficient (cRel-/- ) mice is quantitative, not qualitative, based on analyses of TCR repertoire and TCR signaling strength. However, these parameters are altered in the thymic Treg-precursor population, which is also markedly diminished in cRel-/- mice. Moreover, c-Rel governs the transcriptional programme of both thymic and peripheral Tregs, controlling a core of genes involved with immune signaling, and separately in the periphery, cell cycle progression. Last, the immune suppressive function of peripheral cRel-/- tTregs is diminished in a lymphopenic model of T cell proliferation and is associated with decreased stability of Foxp3 expression. Collectively, we show that c-Rel is a transcriptional regulator that controls multiple aspects of Treg development, differentiation, and function via distinct mechanisms.

Addressing health disparities in hispanic communities through an innovative team-based medical spanish program at the medical school level - a single-institution study.

BACKGROUND: There are insufficient Spanish-speaking physicians to effectively serve a large and rapidly growing Spanish-speaking patient population. METHODS: A team-based hybrid medical Spanish program was designed and implemented at a single medical school in Southern California. This pilot program consisted of a weekly in-person portion where students reviewed Spanish vocabulary and grammar and practiced clinical encounters in teams through active role play. Students supplemented in-class learning with online coursework. Program success was measured through physician-evaluated clinical encounters with Spanish-speaking standardized patients, a 100-question multiple-choice exam, and pre- and post-program surveys. RESULTS: 97% of students in the program (n = 32) received a passing grade at program completion. Student surveys demonstrated enthusiasm and engagement in weekly sessions (95% overall attendance, 97% reported feeling either excited or ready to learn prior to class). In a post-program survey, 100% of students felt better suited and increased desire to treat Hispanic patients. Additionally, all students indicated an interest in the continued use of Spanish in both their schooling and future practice. In a follow-up survey after three months of clinical experience in their 3rd year of medical school, 100% of students reported that medical Spanish is "very beneficial" in patient care and that students with medical Spanish proficiency have advantages over non-speaking students when it comes to patient care opportunities. 100% felt that time spent learning medical Spanish during pre-clinical years was time well spent and that the medical Spanish program enhanced their care of Spanish-speaking students. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the pilot program show a significant increase in the ability of students to engage in clinical interaction in Spanish. The results of our study demonstrate a significant increase in the knowledge, clinical skills, and self-reported confidence of students to treat Hispanic patients. Furthermore, all students not only felt better equipped and more confident to treat Hispanic patients, but they also had an increased desire to do so moving forward in their careers. We conclude that an effective medical Spanish program can be executed simultaneously with a pre-clinical medical school curriculum.

T-cell exhaustion, co-stimulation and clinical outcome in autoimmunity and infection.

The clinical course of autoimmune and infectious disease varies greatly, even between individuals with the same condition. An understanding of the molecular basis for this heterogeneity could lead to significant improvements in both monitoring and treatment. During chronic infection the process of T-cell exhaustion inhibits the immune response, facilitating viral persistence. Here we show that a transcriptional signature reflecting CD8 T-cell exhaustion is associated with poor clearance of chronic viral infection, but conversely predicts better prognosis in multiple autoimmune diseases. The development of CD8 T-cell exhaustion during chronic infection is driven both by persistence of antigen and by a lack of accessory 'help' signals. In autoimmunity, we find that where evidence of CD4 T-cell co-stimulation is pronounced, that of CD8 T-cell exhaustion is reduced. We can reproduce the exhaustion signature by modifying the balance of persistent stimulation of T-cell antigen receptors and specific CD2-induced co-stimulation provided to human CD8 T cells in vitro, suggesting that each process plays a role in dictating outcome in autoimmune disease. The 'non-exhausted' T-cell state driven by CD2-induced co-stimulation is reduced by signals through the exhaustion-associated inhibitory receptor PD-1, suggesting that induction of exhaustion may be a therapeutic strategy in autoimmune and inflammatory disease. Using expression of optimal surrogate markers of co-stimulation/exhaustion signatures in independent data sets, we confirm an association with good clinical outcome or response to therapy in infection (hepatitis C virus) and vaccination (yellow fever, malaria, influenza), but poor outcome in autoimmune and inflammatory disease (type 1 diabetes, anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis, systemic lupus erythematosus, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and dengue haemorrhagic fever). Thus, T-cell exhaustion plays a central role in determining outcome in autoimmune disease and targeted manipulation of this process could lead to new therapeutic opportunities.

Reduced monocyte and macrophage TNFSF15/TL1A expression is associated with susceptibility to inflammatory bowel disease.

Chronic inflammation in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) results from a breakdown of intestinal immune homeostasis and compromise of the intestinal barrier. Genome-wide association studies have identified over 200 genetic loci associated with risk for IBD, but the functional mechanisms of most of these genetic variants remain unknown. Polymorphisms at the TNFSF15 locus, which encodes the TNF superfamily cytokine commonly known as TL1A, are associated with susceptibility to IBD in multiple ethnic groups. In a wide variety of murine models of inflammation including models of IBD, TNFSF15 promotes immunopathology by signaling through its receptor DR3. Such evidence has led to the hypothesis that expression of this lymphocyte costimulatory cytokine increases risk for IBD. In contrast, here we show that the IBD-risk haplotype at TNFSF15 is associated with decreased expression of the gene by peripheral blood monocytes in both healthy volunteers and IBD patients. This association persists under various stimulation conditions at both the RNA and protein levels and is maintained after macrophage differentiation. Utilizing a "recall-by-genotype" bioresource for allele-specific expression measurements in a functional fine-mapping assay, we localize the polymorphism controlling TNFSF15 expression to the regulatory region upstream of the gene. Through a T cell costimulation assay, we demonstrate that genetically regulated TNFSF15 has functional relevance. These findings indicate that genetically enhanced expression of TNFSF15 in specific cell types may confer protection against the development of IBD.

Signalling lymphocyte activation molecule family member 9 is found on select subsets of antigen-presenting cells and promotes resistance to Salmonella infection.

Signalling lymphocyte activation molecule family member 9 (SLAMF9) is an orphan receptor of the CD2/SLAM family of leucocyte surface proteins. Examination of SLAMF9 expression and function indicates that SLAMF9 promotes inflammation by specialized subsets of antigen-presenting cells. Within healthy liver and circulating mouse peripheral blood mononuclear cells, SLAMF9 is expressed on CD11b+ , Ly6C- , CD11clow , F4/80low , MHC-II+ , CX3 CR1+ mononuclear phagocytes as well as plasmacytoid dendritic cells. In addition, SLAMF9 can be found on peritoneal B1 cells and small (F4/80low ), but not large (F4/80high ), peritoneal macrophages. Upon systemic challenge with Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Slamf9-/- mice were impaired in their ability to clear the infection from the liver. In humans, SLAMF9 is up-regulated upon differentiation of monocytes into macrophages, and lipopolysaccharide stimulation of PMA-differentiated, SLAMF9 knockdown THP-1 cells showed an essential role of SLAMF9 in production of granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor, tumour necrosis factor-α, and interleukin-1ß. Taken together, these data implicate SLAMF9 in the initiation of inflammation and clearance of bacterial infection.

The role of a functional variant of TYK2 in vasculitides and infections.

OBJECTIVES: The TYK2 gene encodes a tyrosin kinase which is involved in multiple immune functions. A functional variant of this gene has been identified to play a protective role in multiple autoimmune diseases. The goal of this study was to evaluate the involvement of this variant of TYK2 in vasculitides [giant cell arteritis (GCA), ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) and IgA vasculitis (IgAV)] and viral infections [hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus type I (HIV-1)]. METHODS: The study sample was composed of 13,745 European individuals. The genotyping was performed by Immunochip and TaqMan 5' allele discrimination assays and the allele frequencies were compared using PLINK. RESULTS: Although the results obtained did not reach the genome-wide level of significance, p-values at nominal significance were observed, suggesting that the TYK2 variant provides protection against two vasculitides: GCA (p=5.94E-3; OR (95%CI) = 0.56 (0.37-0.85) and AAV (p=6.79E-3; OR (95%CI) = 0.65 (0.47-0.89). However, this variant was not found to be associated with IgAV. No evidence was gained that the TYK2 variant confers susceptibility to HCV and HIV-1 infection. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to propose the association between the TYK2 and both GCA and AAV. Our findings also suggest that TYK2 does not play a relevant role in IgAV or in susceptibility to HCV and HVI-1.

A blood-based prognostic biomarker in IBD.

OBJECTIVE: We have previously described a prognostic transcriptional signature in CD8 T cells that separates patients with IBD into two phenotypically distinct subgroups, termed IBD1 and IBD2. Here we sought to develop a blood-based test that could identify these subgroups without cell separation, and thus be suitable for clinical use in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). DESIGN: Patients with active IBD were recruited before treatment. Transcriptomic analyses were performed on purified CD8 T cells and/or whole blood. Phenotype data were collected prospectively. IBD1/IBD2 patient subgroups were identified by consensus clustering of CD8 T cell transcriptomes. In a training cohort, machine learning was used to identify groups of genes ('classifiers') whose differential expression in whole blood recreated the IBD1/IBD2 subgroups. Genes from the best classifiers were quantitative (q)PCR optimised, and further machine learning was used to identify the optimal qPCR classifier, which was locked down for further testing. Independent validation was sought in separate cohorts of patients with CD (n=66) and UC (n=57). RESULTS: In both validation cohorts, a 17-gene qPCR-based classifier stratified patients into two distinct subgroups. Irrespective of the underlying diagnosis, IBDhi patients (analogous to the poor prognosis IBD1 subgroup) experienced significantly more aggressive disease than IBDlo patients (analogous to IBD2), with earlier need for treatment escalation (hazard ratio=2.65 (CD), 3.12 (UC)) and more escalations over time (for multiple escalations within 18 months: sensitivity=72.7% (CD), 100% (UC); negative predictive value=90.9% (CD), 100% (UC)). CONCLUSION: This is the first validated prognostic biomarker that can predict prognosis in newly diagnosed patients with IBD and represents a step towards personalised therapy.