Whole-Genome Sequencing and Virulome Analysis of Escherichia coli Isolated from New Zealand Environments of Contrasting Observed Land Use.

Generic Escherichia coli is commonly used as an indicator of fecal contamination to assess water quality and human health risk. Where measured E. coli exceedances occur, the presence of other pathogenic microorganisms, such as Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC), is assumed, but confirmatory data are lacking. Putative E. coli isolates (n = 709) were isolated from water, sediment, soil, periphyton, and feces samples (n = 189) from five sites representing native forest and agricultural environments. Ten E. coli isolates (1.41%) were stx2 positive, 19 (2.7%) were eae positive, and stx1-positive isolates were absent. At the sample level, stx2-positive E. coli (5 of 189, 2.6%) and eae-positive isolates (16 of 189, 8.5%) were rare. Using real-time PCR, these STEC-associated virulence factors were determined to be more prevalent in sample enrichments (stx1, 23.9%; stx2, 31.4%; eae, 53.7%) and positively correlated with generic E. coli isolate numbers (P < 0.05) determined using culture-based methods. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was undertaken on a subset of 238 isolates with assemblies representing seven E. coli phylogroups (A, B1, B2, C, D, E, and F), 22 Escherichia marmotae isolates, and 1 Escherichia ruysiae isolate. Virulence factors, including those from extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli, were extremely diverse in isolates from the different locations and were more common in phylogroup B2. Analysis of the virulome from WGS data permitted the identification of gene repertoires that may be involved in environmental fitness and broadly align with phylogroup. Although recovery of STEC isolates was low, our molecular data indicate that they are likely to be widely present in environmental samples containing diverse E. coli phylogroups. IMPORTANCE This study takes a systematic sampling approach to assess the public health risk of Escherichia coli recovered from freshwater sites within forest and farmland. The New Zealand landscape is dominated by livestock farming, and previous work has demonstrated that "recreational exposure to water" is a risk factor for human infection by Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC). Though STEC isolates were rarely isolated from water samples, STEC-associated virulence factors were identified more commonly from water sample culture enrichments and were associated with increased generic E. coli concentrations. Whole-genome sequencing data from both E. coli and newly described Escherichia spp. demonstrated the presence of virulence factors from E. coli pathotypes, including extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli. This has significance for understanding and interpreting the potential health risk from E. coli where water quality is poor and suggests a role of virulence factors in survival and persistence of E. coli and Escherichia spp.

Genomic and phenotypic comparison of two Salmonella Typhimurium strains responsible for consecutive salmonellosis outbreaks in New Zealand.

Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT160 was the predominant cause of notified human salmonellosis cases in New Zealand from 2000 to 2010, before it was superseded by another S. Typhimurium strain, DT56 variant (DT56v). Whole genome sequencing and phenotypic testing were used to compare 109 DT160 isolates with eight DT56v isolates from New Zealand animal and human sources. Phylogenetic analysis provided evidence that DT160 and DT56v strains were distantly related with an estimated date of common ancestor between 1769 and 1821. The strains replicated at different rates but had similar antimicrobial susceptibility profiles. Both strains were resistant to the phage expressed from the chromosome of the other strain, which may have contributed to the emergence of DT56v. DT160 contained the pSLT virulence plasmid, and the sseJ and sseK2 genes that may have contributed to the higher reported prevalence compared to DT56v. A linear pBSSB1-family plasmid was also found in one of the DT56v isolates, but there was no evidence that this plasmid affected bacterial replication or antimicrobial susceptibility. One of the DT56v isolates was also sequenced using long-read technology and found to contain an uncommon chromosome arrangement for a Typhimurium isolate. This study demonstrates how comparative genomics and phenotypic testing can help identify strain-specific elements and factors that may have influenced the emergence and supersession of bacterial strains of public health importance.

Transmission Dynamics of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli in New Zealand Cattle from Farm to Slaughter.

Cattle are asymptomatic carriers of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichiacoli (STEC) strains that can cause serious illness or death in humans. In New Zealand, contact with cattle feces and living near cattle populations are known risk factors for human STEC infection. Contamination of fresh meat with STEC strains also leads to the potential for rejection of consignments by importing countries. We used a combination of PCR/matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF) and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to evaluate the presence and transmission of STEC on farms and in processing plants to better understand the potential pathways for human exposure and thus mitigate risk. Animal and environmental samples (n = 2,580) were collected from six farms and three meat processing plants in New Zealand during multiple sampling sessions in spring of 2015 and 2016. PCR/MALDI-TOF analysis revealed that 6.2% were positive for "Top 7" STEC. Top 7 STEC strains were identified in all sample sources (n = 17) tested. A marked increase in Top 7 STEC prevalence was observed between calf hides on farm (6.3% prevalence) and calf hides at processing plants (25.1% prevalence). Whole-genome sequencing was performed on Top 7 STEC bacterial isolates (n = 40). Analysis of STEC O26 (n = 25 isolates) revealed relatively low genetic diversity on individual farms, consistent with the presence of a resident strain disseminated within the farm environment. Public health efforts should focus on minimizing human contact with fecal material on farms and during handling, transport, and slaughter of calves. Meat processing plants should focus on minimizing cross-contamination between the hides of calves in a cohort during transport, lairage, and slaughter.IMPORTANCE Cattle are asymptomatic carriers of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) strains, which can cause serious illness or death in humans. Contact with cattle feces and living near cattle are known risk factors for human STEC infection. This study evaluated STEC carriage in young calves and the farm environment with an in-depth evaluation of six farms and three meat processing plants over 2 years. An advanced molecular detection method and whole-genome sequencing were used to provide a detailed evaluation of the transmission of STEC both within and between farms. The study revealed widespread STEC contamination within the farm environment, but no evidence of recent spread between farms. Contamination of young dairy calf hides increased following transport and holding at meat processing plants. The elimination of STEC in farm environments may be very difficult given the multiple transmission routes; interventions should be targeted at decreasing fecal contamination of calf hides during transport, lairage, and processing.

Shifts in the Molecular Epidemiology of Campylobacter jejuni Infections in a Sentinel Region of New Zealand following Implementation of Food Safety Interventions by the Poultry Industry.

In 2006, New Zealand had the highest notification rate of campylobacteriosis in the world, and poultry was considered the leading source of campylobacteriosis. Implementation of food safety interventions by the poultry industry led to a decrease in the campylobacteriosis notification rate. The aim is to examine the impact of targeted food safety interventions implemented by the New Zealand poultry industry on the source attribution of Campylobacter jejuni infections in a sentinel region. Campylobacter jejuni isolates collected from the Manawatu region of New Zealand between 2005 and 2007 ("before intervention") and 2008 and 2015 ("after intervention") from human clinical cases, chicken meat, ruminant feces, environmental water, and wild bird sources were subtyped by multilocus sequence typing. Viable counts of Campylobacter spp. from carcasses were analyzed using a zero-inflated Poisson regression model. In the period before intervention, sequence type 474 (ST-474) was the most common sequence type (ST) recovered from human cases, accounting for 28.2% of the isolates. After intervention, the proportion of human cases positive for ST-474 reduced to 9.3%. Modeling indicated that chicken meat, primarily from one supplier, was the main source of C. jejuni infection in the Manawatu region before intervention. However, after intervention poultry collectively had a similar attribution to ruminants, but more human cases were attributed to ruminants than any single chicken supplier. Viable counts on carcasses were lower in all poultry suppliers after intervention. This study provides evidence of changes in the source attribution of campylobacteriosis following targeted food safety interventions in one sector of the food supply chain.IMPORTANCE This study provides a unique insight into the effects of food safety interventions implemented in one sector of the food industry on the transmission routes of a major foodborne agent. Following the implementation of food safety interventions by the poultry industry, shifts in the molecular epidemiology of Campylobacter jejuni infections in a sentinel region of New Zealand were observed. Targeted interventions to reduce disease incidence are effective but require continued surveillance and analysis to indicate where further interventions may be beneficial.

Carriage of Extended-Spectrum-Beta-Lactamase- and AmpC Beta-Lactamase-Producing Escherichia coli Strains from Humans and Pets in the Same Households.

Extended-spectrum-beta-lactamase (ESBL)- or AmpC beta-lactamase (ACBL)-producing Escherichia coli bacteria are the most common cause of community-acquired multidrug-resistant urinary tract infections (UTIs) in New Zealand. The carriage of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria has been found in both people and pets from the same household; thus, the home environment may be a place where antimicrobial-resistant bacteria are shared between humans and pets. In this study, we sought to determine whether members (pets and people) of the households of human index cases with a UTI caused by an ESBL- or ACBL-producing E. coli strain also carried an ESBL- or ACBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae strain and, if so, whether it was a clonal match to the index case clinical strain. Index cases with a community-acquired UTI were recruited based on antimicrobial susceptibility testing of urine isolates. Fecal samples were collected from 18 non-index case people and 36 pets across 27 households. Eleven of the 27 households screened had non-index case household members (8/18 people and 5/36 animals) positive for ESBL- and/or ACBL-producing E. coli strains. Whole-genome sequence analysis of 125 E. coli isolates (including the clinical urine isolates) from these 11 households showed that within seven households, the same strain of ESBL-/ACBL-producing E. coli was cultured from both the index case and another person (5/11 households) or pet dog (2/11 households). These results suggest that transmission within the household may contribute to the community spread of ESBL- or ACBL-producing E. coliIMPORTANCEEnterobacteriaceae that produce extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBLs) and AmpC beta-lactamases (ACBLs) are important pathogens and can cause community-acquired illnesses, such as urinary tract infections (UTIs). Fecal carriage of these resistant bacteria by companion animals may pose a risk for transmission to humans. Our work evaluated the sharing of ESBL- and ACBL-producing E. coli isolates between humans and companion animals. We found that in some households, dogs carried the same strain of ESBL-producing E. coli as the household member with a UTI. This suggests that transmission events between humans and animals (or vice versa) are likely occurring within the home environment and, therefore, the community as a whole. This is significant from a health perspective, when considering measures to minimize community transmission, and highlights that in order to manage community spread, we need to consider interventions at the household level.

The hypoattenuating ocular lens on CT is not always due to cataract formation.

Hypoattenuating ocular lenses on CT have been described with cataract formation in humans, however published studies are currently lacking regarding this finding in veterinary patients. The purpose of this retrospective and prospective study was to describe the varying CT appearances of the ocular lens in vivo, and investigate the causes for CT density variations in a population of cats and dogs. A total of 102 canine and feline patients with CT of the head acquired at the authors' hospital between May 2011 and March 2019 were included. A bilateral hypoattenuating halo surrounding an isoattenuating to mildly hypoattenuating core was described in the ocular lens center of every cat in which a Philips brand proprietary image construction filter was used. A similar but more varied hypoattenuating region was noted in the lenses of 45.8% of dogs where the same filter was applied, as well as 43.8% of dogs with a second, similar filter. Ophthalmic examination of three live cats and one dog with hypoattenuating lenses demonstrated normal lens translucency, excluding the presence of cataract. The effect of different proprietary filters on lens appearance was also described in three fresh cadavers with normal lenses identified on ophthalmic, macroscopic, and microscopic examination. Etiology of the hypoattenuating areas within the ocular lens was not conclusively determined. Recognition that such a variant may be seen in the absence of cataract is important, in order to prevent misdiagnosis.

Use of Genomics to Investigate Historical Importation of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli Serogroup O26 and Nontoxigenic Variants into New Zealand.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli serogroup O26 is an important public health pathogen. Phylogenetic bacterial lineages in a country can be associated with the level and timing of international imports of live cattle, the main reservoir. We sequenced the genomes of 152 E. coli O26 isolates from New Zealand and compared them with 252 E. coli O26 genomes from 14 other countries. Gene variation among isolates from humans, animals, and food was strongly associated with country of origin and stx toxin profile but not isolation source. Time of origin estimates indicate serogroup O26 sequence type 21 was introduced at least 3 times into New Zealand from the 1920s to the 1980s, whereas nonvirulent O26 sequence type 29 strains were introduced during the early 2000s. New Zealand's remarkably fewer introductions of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O26 compared with other countries (such as Japan) might be related to patterns of trade in live cattle.

Campylobacter jejuni Strains Associated with Wild Birds and Those Causing Human Disease in Six High-Use Recreational Waterways in New Zealand.

Campylobacter jejuni, a leading cause of gastroenteritis worldwide, has been frequently isolated from recreational rivers and streams in New Zealand, yet the public health significance of this is unknown. This study uses molecular tools to improve our understanding of the epidemiology and sources of Campylobacter in recreational waterways, with a view to preventing human infection. Epidemiological and microbiological data were collected between 2005 and 2009 from six high-use recreational waterways in the Manawatu-Wanganui region of the North Island. Campylobacter spp. and C. jejuni were isolated from 33.2% and 20.4% of 509 samples, respectively. Isolation of Campylobacter was observed in both low and high river flows. After adjusting for the confounding effects of river flow, there was a significantly higher likelihood of isolating Campylobacter in the winter month of June compared to January. A high diversity of C. jejuni multilocus sequence types was seen, with the most commonly isolated being the water rail-associated ST-2381 (19/91 isolates [20.9%]), ST-1225 (8/91 isolates [8.8%]), and ST-45 (6/91 isolates [6.6%]). The ST-2381 was found in all rivers, while the most commonly isolated ST from human cases in New Zealand, the poultry-associated strain ST-474, was isolated only in one river. Although the majority of Campylobacter sequence types identified in river water were strains associated with wild birds that are rarely associated with human disease, poultry and ruminant-associated Campylobacter strains that are found in human infection were also identified and could present a public health risk.IMPORTANCE In 2016, there was a large-scale waterborne outbreak of campylobacteriosis in New Zealand, which was estimated to have affected over 5,000 people. This highlighted the need for a greater understanding of the sources of contamination of both surface and groundwater and risks associated with exposure to both drinking and recreational water. This study reports the prevalence and population structure of Campylobacter jejuni in six recreational waters of the Manawatu-Wanganui region of New Zealand and models the relationship between Campylobacter spp. and ruminant-associated Campylobacter and the parameters "sites," "months," and "river flow." Here, we demonstrate that both low and high river flows, month of the year, and recreational sites could influence the Campylobacter isolation from recreational waters. The presence of genotypes associated with human infection allowed us to describe potential risks associated with recreational waters.

Molecular Epidemiology of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli (STEC) on New Zealand Dairy Farms: Application of a Culture-Independent Assay and Whole-Genome Sequencing.

New Zealand has a relatively high incidence of human cases of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), with 8.9 STEC cases per 100,000 people reported in 2016. Previous research showed living near cattle and contact with cattle feces as significant risk factors for STEC infections in humans in New Zealand, but infection was not linked to food-associated factors. During the 2014 spring calving season, a random, stratified, cross-sectional study of dairy farms (n = 102) in six regions across New Zealand assessed the prevalence of the "Top 7" STEC bacteria (serogroups O157, O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, and O145) in young calves (n = 1,508), using a culture-independent diagnostic test (PCR/MALDI-TOF). Twenty percent (306/1,508) of calves on 75% (76/102) of dairy farms were positive for at least one of the "Top 7" STEC bacteria. STEC carriage by calves was associated with environmental factors, increased calf age, region, and increased number of calves in a shared calf pen. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ρ) indicated strong clustering of "Top 7" STEC-positive calves for O157, O26, and O45 serogroups within the same pens and farms, indicating that if one calf was positive, others in the same environment were likely to be positive as well. This finding was further evaluated with whole-genome sequencing, which indicated that a single E. coli O26 clonal strain could be found in calves in the same pen or farm, but different strains existed on different farms. This study provides evidence that would be useful for designing on-farm interventions to reduce direct and indirect human exposure to STEC bacteria.IMPORTANCE Cattle are asymptomatic carriers of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) bacteria that can cause bloody diarrhea and kidney failure in humans if ingested. New Zealand has relatively high numbers of STEC cases, and contact with cattle feces and living near cattle are risk factors for human infection. This study assessed the national prevalence of STEC in young dairy cattle by randomly selecting 102 farms throughout New Zealand. The study used a molecular laboratory method that has relatively high sensitivity and specificity compared to traditional methods. "Top 7" STEC was found in 20% of calves on 75% of the farms studied, indicating widespread prevalence across the country. By examining the risk factors associated with calf carriage, potential interventions that could decrease the prevalence of "Top 7" STEC bacteria at the farm level were identified, which could benefit both public health and food safety.

Tutorial on kernel estimation of continuous spatial and spatiotemporal relative risk.

Kernel smoothing is a highly flexible and popular approach for estimation of probability density and intensity functions of continuous spatial data. In this role, it also forms an integral part of estimation of functionals such as the density-ratio or "relative risk" surface. Originally developed with the epidemiological motivation of examining fluctuations in disease risk based on samples of cases and controls collected over a given geographical region, such functions have also been successfully used across a diverse range of disciplines where a relative comparison of spatial density functions has been of interest. This versatility has demanded ongoing developments and improvements to the relevant methodology, including use spatially adaptive smoothers; tests of significantly elevated risk based on asymptotic theory; extension to the spatiotemporal domain; and novel computational methods for their evaluation. In this tutorial paper, we review the current methodology, including the most recent developments in estimation, computation, and inference. All techniques are implemented in the new software package sparr, publicly available for the R language, and we illustrate its use with a pair of epidemiological examples.

The Site of Bone Marrow Acquisition Affects the Myeloid to Erythroid Ratio in Apparently Healthy Dogs.

Bone marrow (BM) cytology and histopathology are complementary tools used to investigate hematological diseases. The purpose of this study was to determine if there are site-dependent differences in the diagnostic quality, myeloid to erythroid ratio (MER), and discordant findings in samples from different sites in the same dog. Eighteen apparently healthy dogs were used in the study. The sequence of sample acquisition was randomized according to a Latin square, and samples for BM cytology and histology were collected from both humeri and both ilial crests immediately after death. Board-certified clinical and anatomical pathologists read the cytology and histology, respectively. The data were analyzed using a mixed-effect model. The site of BM acquisition did not affect BM sample quality. The rate of discordant clinical findings between sites was 0.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.01-0.13). In general, by cytology, the MERs were slightly but significantly greater in samples from the ilial crests than from the humeri ( P = .01). The measured MER for histology was nearly twice that for cytology for all sites ( P < .001). In conclusion, there was a low-rate, site-dependent discordance in diagnostic findings in BM samples and differences in MER between the ilial crest and the humerus. A similar study is justified in sick dogs with hematological disease to determine the effect of sampling site on discordant findings between sites.

A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes.

For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

Long-term Colonization by Campylobacter jejuni Within a Human Host: Evolution, Antimicrobial Resistance, and Adaptation.

Background: Campylobacteriosis is inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract as a result of Campylobacter infection. Most campylobacteriosis cases are acute and self-limiting, with Campylobacter excretion ceasing a few weeks after symptoms cease. We identified a patient with fecal specimens positive for Campylobacter jejuni (ST45) intermittently during a 10-year period. Methods: Sixteen Campylobacter isolates were collected from the patient during 2006-2016. The isolates' genomes were sequenced to determine their relatedness, and their antimicrobial susceptibility patterns and motility were measured to determine the effects of antibiotic therapy and long-term excretion on the Campylobacter population. Results: Phylogenetic analyses estimated that the isolates shared a date of common ancestor between 1998 and 2006, coinciding with the onset of symptoms for the patient. Genomic analysis identified selection for changes in motility, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing suggested that the Campylobacter population developed resistance to several antibiotics coinciding with periods of antibiotic therapy. Conclusions: The patient was consistently colonized with organisms from a Campylobacter population that adapted to the internal environment of the patient. Genomic and phylogenetic analyses can give insight into a patient's infection history and the effect of antimicrobial treatment on Campylobacter populations in this unusual situation of long-term colonization of an individual.

Genomic Analysis of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium DT160 Associated with a 14-Year Outbreak, New Zealand, 1998-2012.

During 1998-2012, an extended outbreak of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium definitive type 160 (DT160) affected >3,000 humans and killed wild birds in New Zealand. However, the relationship between DT160 within these 2 host groups and the origin of the outbreak are unknown. Whole-genome sequencing was used to compare 109 Salmonella Typhimurium DT160 isolates from sources throughout New Zealand. We provide evidence that DT160 was introduced into New Zealand around 1997 and rapidly propagated throughout the country, becoming more genetically diverse over time. The genetic heterogeneity was evenly distributed across multiple predicted functional protein groups, and we found no evidence of host group differentiation between isolates collected from human, poultry, bovid, and wild bird sources, indicating ongoing transmission between these host groups. Our findings demonstrate how a comparative genomic approach can be used to gain insight into outbreaks, disease transmission, and the evolution of a multihost pathogen after a probable point-source introduction.

Molecular Epidemiology of Campylobacter coli Strains Isolated from Different Sources in New Zealand between 2005 and 2014.

UNLABELLED: Campylobacteriosis is one of the most important foodborne diseases worldwide and a significant health burden in New Zealand. Campylobacter jejuni is the predominant species worldwide, accounting for approximately 90% of human cases, followed by Campylobacter coli Most studies in New Zealand have focused on C. jejuni; hence, the impact of C. coli strains on human health is not well understood. The aim of this study was to genotype C. coli isolates collected in the Manawatu region of New Zealand from clinical cases, fresh poultry meat, ruminant feces, and environmental water sources, between 2005 and 2014, to study their population structure and estimate the contribution of each source to the burden of human disease. Campylobacter isolates were identified by PCR and typed by multilocus sequence typing. C. coli accounted for 2.9% (n = 47/1,601) of Campylobacter isolates from human clinical cases, 9.6% (n = 108/1,123) from poultry, 13.4% (n = 49/364) from ruminants, and 6.4% (n = 11/171) from water. Molecular subtyping revealed 27 different sequence types (STs), of which 18 belonged to clonal complex ST-828. ST-1581 was the most prevalent C. coli sequence type isolated from both human cases (n = 12/47) and poultry (n = 44/110). When classified using cladistics, all sequence types belonged to clade 1 except ST-7774, which belonged to clade 2. ST-854, ST-1590, and ST-4009 were isolated only from human cases and fresh poultry, while ST-3232 was isolated only from human cases and ruminant sources. Modeling indicated ruminants and poultry as the main sources of C. coli human infection. IMPORTANCE: We performed a molecular epidemiological study of Campylobacter coli infection in New Zealand, one of few such studies globally. This study analyzed the population genetic structure of the bacterium and included a probabilistic source attribution model covering different animal and water sources. The results are discussed in a global context.

Carbon isotope discrimination in leaves of the broad-leaved paperbark tree, Melaleuca quinquenervia, as a tool for quantifying past tropical and subtropical rainfall.

Quantitative reconstructions of terrestrial climate are highly sought after but rare, particularly in Australia. Carbon isotope discrimination in plant leaves (Δleaf ) is an established indicator of past hydroclimate because the fractionation of carbon isotopes during photosynthesis is strongly influenced by water stress. Leaves of the evergreen tree Melaleuca quinquenervia have been recovered from the sediments of some perched lakes on North Stradbroke and Fraser Islands, south-east Queensland, eastern Australia. Here, we examine the potential for using M. quinquenervia ∆leaf as a tracer of past rainfall by analysing carbon isotope ratios (δ(13) C) of modern leaves. We firstly assess Δleaf variation at the leaf and stand scale and find no systematic pattern within leaves or between leaves due to their position on the tree. We then examine the relationships between climate and Δleaf for a 11-year time series of leaves collected in a litter tray. M. quinquenervia retains its leaves for 1-4 years; thus, cumulative average climate data are used. There is a significant relationship between annual mean ∆leaf and mean annual rainfall of the hydrological year for 1-4 years (i.e. 365-1460 days) prior to leaf fall (r(2)  = 0.64, P = 0.003, n = 11). This relationship is marginally improved by accounting for the effect of pCO2 on discrimination (r(2)  = 0.67, P = 0.002, n = 11). The correlation between rainfall and Δleaf , and the natural distribution of Melaleuca quinquenervia around wetlands of eastern Australia, Papua New Guinea and New Caledonia offers significant potential to infer past rainfall on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

Fish population persistence in hydrologically variable landscapes.

Forecasting population persistence in environments subjected to periodic disturbances represents a general challenge for ecologists. In arid and semiarid regions, climate change and human water use pose significant threats to the future persistence of aquatic biota whose populations typically depend on permanent refuge waterholes for their viability. As such, habitats are increasingly being lost as a result of decreasing runoff and increasing water extraction. We constructed a spatially explicit population model for golden perch Macquaria ambigua (Richardson), a native freshwater fish in the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. We then used the model to examine the effects of increased aridity, increased drought frequency, and localized human water extraction on population viability. Consistent with current observations, the model predicted golden perch population persistence under the current climate and levels of water use. Modeled increases in local water extraction greatly increased the risk of population decline, while scenarios of increasing aridity and drought frequency were associated with only minor increases in this risk. We conclude that natural variability in abundances and high turnover rates (extinction/recolonization) of local populations dictate the importance of spatial connectivity and periodic cycles of population growth. Our study also demonstrates an effective way to examine population persistence in intermittent and ephemeral river systems by integrating spatial and temporal dynamics of waterhole persistence with demographic processes (survival, recruitment, and dispersal) within a stochastic modeling framework. The approach can be used to help understand the impacts of natural and anthropogenic drivers, including water resource development, on the viability of biota inhabiting highly dynamic environments.

Using a common commensal bacterium in endangered Takahe as a model to explore pathogen dynamics in isolated wildlife populations.

Predicting and preventing outbreaks of infectious disease in endangered wildlife is problematic without an understanding of the biotic and abiotic factors that influence pathogen transmission and the genetic variation of microorganisms within and between these highly modified host communities. We used a common commensal bacterium, Campylobacter spp., in endangered Takahe (Porphyrio hochstetteri) populations to develop a model with which to study pathogen dynamics in isolated wildlife populations connected through ongoing translocations. Takahe are endemic to New Zealand, where their total population is approximately 230 individuals. Takahe were translocated from a single remnant wild population to multiple offshore and mainland reserves. Several fragmented subpopulations are maintained and connected through regular translocations. We tested 118 Takahe from 8 locations for fecal Campylobacter spp. via culture and DNA extraction and used PCR for species assignment. Factors relating to population connectivity and host life history were explored using multivariate analytical methods to determine associations between host variables and bacterial prevalence. The apparent prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in Takahe was 99%, one of the highest reported in avian populations. Variation in prevalence was evident among Campylobacter species identified. C. sp. nova 1 (90%) colonized the majority of Takahe tested. Prevalence of C. jejuni (38%) and C. coli (24%) was different between Takahe subpopulations, and this difference was associated with factors related to population management, captivity, rearing environment, and the presence of agricultural practices in the location in which birds were sampled. Modeling results of Campylobacter spp. in Takahe metapopulations suggest that anthropogenic management of endangered species within altered environments may have unforeseen effects on microbial exposure, carriage, and disease risk. Translocation of wildlife between locations could have unpredictable consequences including the spread of novel microbes between isolated populations.

Geographic divergence of bovine and human Shiga toxin­producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 genotypes, New Zealand.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC)O157:H7 is a zoonotic pathogen of public health concern worldwide. To compare the local and large-scale geographic distributions of genotypes of STEC O157:H7 isolates obtained from various bovine and human sources during 2008­2011, we used pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and Shiga toxin­encoding bacteriophage insertion (SBI) typing. Using multivariate methods, we compared isolates from the North and South Islands of New Zealand with isolates from Australia and the United States. The STEC O157:H7 population structure differed substantially between the 2 islands and showed evidence of finer scale spatial structuring, which is consistent with highly localized transmission rather than disseminated foodborne outbreaks. The distribution of SBI types differed markedly among isolates from New Zealand, Australia, and the United States. Our findings also provide evidence for the historic introduction into New Zealand of a subset of globally circulating STEC O157:H7 strains that have continued to evolve and be transmitted locally between cattle and humans.

Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics.

The wildlife and livestock interface is vital for wildlife conservation and habitat management. Infectious diseases maintained by domestic species may impact threatened species such as Asian bovids, as they share natural resources and habitats. To predict the population impact of infectious diseases with different traits, we used stochastic mathematical models to simulate the population dynamics over 100 years for 100 times in a model gaur (Bos gaurus) population with and without disease. We simulated repeated introductions from a reservoir, such as domestic cattle. We selected six bovine infectious diseases; anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, haemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis, all of which have caused outbreaks in wildlife populations. From a starting population of 300, the disease-free population increased by an average of 228% over 100 years. Brucellosis with frequency-dependent transmission showed the highest average population declines (-97%), with population extinction occurring 16% of the time. Foot and mouth disease with frequency-dependent transmission showed the lowest impact, with an average population increase of 200%. Overall, acute infections with very high or low fatality had the lowest impact, whereas chronic infections produced the greatest population decline. These results may help disease management and surveillance strategies support wildlife conservation.