Thirty-year trends of triple burden of disease in the adult population of Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: The triple burden of disease, i.e. communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases and injuries, has significantly affected the healthcare system of Pakistan during the last three decades. Therefore, this study aims to determine and analyse the 30-year disease burden trends through prevalence, death rates and percentages. METHODS: The data for the last three decades, i.e. 1990 to 2019, was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease for Pakistan. Percentage change in prevalence and deaths over 30 years was calculated. Poisson regression analysis was performed to evaluate the triple disease burden trends and the incidence rate ratio. RESULTS: A relative decrease of 23.4% was noted in the prevalence rate of communicable diseases except for human immunodeficiency virus and dengue fever. A relative increase of 1.4% was noted in the prevalence rate of non-communicable diseases. A relative increase of 56.1% was recorded in the prevalence rate of injuries. The prevalence rate ratios of communicable diseases significantly decreased to 0.9796 [95% CI: 0.9887-0.9905], but the prevalence rate of injury increased to 1.0094 [95% CI: 1.0073-1.01145], respectively. CONCLUSION: Pakistan must take the next steps and develop strategies to decrease this burden and mortality rates in the population to create better outcomes and therefore help the healthcare system overall.

Derivation of the Difficult Airway Physiological Score (DAPS) in adults undergoing endotracheal intubation in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of serious outcomes among patients with physiological instability is crucial in airway management. In this study, we aim to develop a score to predict serious outcomes following intubation in critically ill adults with physiological instability by using clinical and laboratory parameters collected prior to intubation. METHOD: This single-center analytical cross-sectional study was conducted in the Emergency Department from 2016 to 2020. The airway score was derived using the transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) methodology. To gauge model's performance, the train-test split technique was utilized. The discrete random number generation approach was used to divide the dataset into two groups: development (training) and validation (testing). The validation dataset's instances were used to calculate the final score, and its validity was measured using ROC analysis and area under the curve (AUC). By computing the Youden's J statistic using the metrics sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value, the discriminating factor of the additive score was determined. RESULTS: The mean age of the 1021 patients who needed endotracheal intubations was 52.2 years (± 17.5), and 632 (62%) of them were male. In the development dataset, there were 527 (64.9%) physiologically difficult airways, 298 (36.7%) post-intubation hypotension, 124 (12%) cardiac arrest, 347 (42.7%) shock index > 0.9, and 456 [56.2%] instances of pH < 7.3. On the contrary, in the validation dataset, there were 143 (68.4%) physiologically difficult airways, 33 (15.8%) post-intubation hypotension, 41 (19.6%) cardiac arrest, 87 (41.6%) shock index > 0.9, and 121 (57.9%) had pH < 7.3, respectively. There were 12 variables in the difficult airway physiological score (DAPS), and a DAPS of 9 had an area under the curve of 0.857. The accuracy of DAPS was 77%, the sensitivity was 74%, the specificity was 83.3%, and the positive predictive value was 91%. CONCLUSION: DAPS demonstrated strong discriminating ability for anticipating physiologically challenging airways. The proposed model may be helpful in the clinical setting for screening patients who are at high risk of deterioration.

Trends in managing femoral neck fractures with arthroplasty in the ≥ 50 years age group.

Objective: To know about the trends in the management of neck of femur fractures with arthroplasty in patients ≥ 50 years. Methods: It is a retrospective cross-sectional study with data collection from Hospital Management Information System from 1st January 2020 to 31st July 2023. SPSS version 25 was used for data analysis. Mean & standard deviation was reported for quantitative variable & frequency and proportion were reported for qualitative variables. The cross- tabulations were performed to evaluate the association between the variables. Results: Total number of patients in this study was 305. Mean age was 67.80 ± 10.5 SD. Male to female ratio was 150:155. Co-morbidities were found in 126 patients. The surgical options used were Austin Moore prosthesis (64), Cemented Bipolar (36), Hybrid Total Hip Replacement (7), Non-cemented Total Hip Replacement (86), Cemented Total Hip Replacement (32), Uncemented Bipolar (71). Garden Type-2 fracture was noted in 33 patients, Type-3 in 170 patients and Type-4 in 87 patients. Cemented stem was used in 74 patients while 222 patients had non-cemented stem. Conclusion: One quarter of the patients had cemented stem implanted compared to three quarter of the patients who had non-cemented stem.

Global Surgery Hackathons: A Case Study From Pakistan.

Background. Hackathons aim to solve problems in a selected field by bringing together people from multiple domains and combining their expertise. Global surgery is an emerging field with a huge burden of disease and massive implications for bettering health care. In this study, we describe the first Global Surgery Hackathon held in Pakistan and analyze the impacts of the hack and post-hack incubation. Methods. This research study used data collected from a Hackathon held at the Aga Khan University (AKU) in Karachi, Pakistan, and progress from the post-hack incubation teams. Data were collected from applications, from sign-in attendance, via evaluation forms, and milestone tracking of the incubation teams. A list of factors such as sectors addressed by winning projects and grants received was made. Results. The evaluations provided by the participants were positive, with mean scores of 4.00 (SD = .78) out of 5 on a Likert scale. Pitches made (n = 69, 68%) by the 109 participants were sorted into 5 categories: workplace, access, quality, safety, and design. Fifteen teams were formed, out of which 5 were accepted for incubation. All teams had a minimum viable product at the one-year mark. Conclusion. Hackathons are a reliable way to come up with effective solutions for targeted problems in various areas of health care and using the methodology of a Hackathon, a pool of low-cost, innovative solutions can be generated. These solutions can definitely impact health outcomes, especially for the field of global surgery. Further statistics should be collected to affirm the incubated solutions' impact.

Innovation in emergency medicine; a perspective from a low middle income country, Pakistan.

Creativity and innovation are essential life skills in the 21st century. These skills are even more important in the healthcare sector of a resource limited country like Pakistan. The acquisition and implementation of innovation is necessary in the field of emergency medicine in Pakistan to troubleshoot challenges like rising emergency room visits while facing lack of resources. This article highlights the need of innovation in the field of emergency medicine and some of the activities that took place in our local context to bring innovation to the surface.

A Case for Global Surgery in Pakistan: Implementation Through Multi-Disciplinary Engagement.

The increasing disparity in healthcare access in Pakistan requires immediate intervention in the form of informed policy and appropriate implementation of such a policy. The implementation of a global surgery framework in Pakistan has the potential to improve healthcare access and parity in rural areas. Benefitting from the lessons learned through previous attempts at implementing centrally planned health programmes, This paper makes the case for a decentralised approach in facilitating the implementation of a Global Surgery framework in Pakistan. The Critical Creative Innovative Thinking (CCIT) forum, established at the Aga Khan University (AKU), Karachi, has an important role to play in this regard. The CCIT forum has demonstrated ability in developing and facilitating multi - disciplinary engagement around topics of biomedicine and healthcare, and in growing such engagements to their commercial value. Hence, the CCIT forum has immense potential in creating a highfunctioning ecosystem around Global Surgery, thereby formulating a dynamic implementation plan - outside of conventional, centrally implemented public policy frameworks.

The clinical respiratory score predicts paediatric critical care disposition in children with respiratory distress presenting to the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory distress is a common presenting complaint in children brought to the Emergency Department (ED). The Clinical Respiratory Score (CRS) has shown promise as a screen for severe illness in High Income Countries. We aimed to validate the admission CRS in children presenting to the ED of a Low-to Middle Income Country. METHODS: Children (1 month to 16 years) presenting with respiratory distress to the ED of the Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan, between November 2015 to March 2016, were enrolled. The CRS was measured at initial presentation, prior to any management and 2 h after treatment was started. The predictive value for admission to the paediatric critical care units for a variety of cut offs for CRS at presentation were derived. RESULTS: A total of 112 children (70% male) of median age 12 months (IQR 2, 34.5 months) were enrolled. Patients with severe CRS (score 8-12) at presentation were more likely to be admitted to paediatric critical care (90% vs. 23% with mild-moderate CRS; OR: 5.7; 95% CI: 2.2-15.3, p < 0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of CRS > 3 in predicting outcome were 94% (95% CI 79.8-99.3) and 40% (95% CI 35-45), respectively, with a positive likelihood ratio of 1.6 (95% CI 1.31-1.98) and negative predictive value of 94% (95% CI 81-98). CONCLUSION: An admission CRS of > 3 in the ED of a Low-to Middle Income Country had excellent predictive value for disease severity, and it should be considered for incorporation into ED triage protocols.

Teaching children road safety through storybooks: an approach to child health literacy in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) commonly affect the younger population in low- and-middle-income countries. School children may be educated about road safety using storybooks with colorful pictures, which tends to increase the child's interest in the text. Therefore, this study assessed the use of bilingual pictorial storybooks to improve RTI prevention knowledge among school children. METHODS: This pretest-posttest study was conducted in eight public and nine private schools of Karachi, Pakistan, between February to May 2015. Children in grades four and five were enrolled at baseline (n = 410). The intervention was an interactive discussion about RTI prevention using a bilingual (Urdu and English) pictorial storybook. A baseline test was conducted to assess children's pre-existing knowledge about RTI prevention followed by administration of the intervention. Two posttests were conducted: first immediately after the intervention, and second after 2 months. Test scores were analyzed using McNemar test and paired sample t-test. RESULTS: There were 57% girls and 55% public school students; age range 8-16 years. Compared to the overall baseline score (5.1 ± 1.4), the number of correct answers increased in both subsequent tests (5.9 ± 1.2 and 6.1 ± 1.1 respectively, p-value < 0.001). Statistically significant improvement in mean scores was observed based on gender, grades and school type over time (p-value < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Discussions using bilingual pictorial storybooks helped primary school children in Pakistan grasp knowledge of RTI prevention. RTI education sessions may be incorporated into school curricula using storybooks as teaching tools. Potential exists to create similar models for other developing countries by translating the storybooks into local languages.

The pediatric disease spectrum in emergency departments across Pakistan: data from a pilot surveillance system.

BACKGROUND: There is an increasing number of urgently ill and injured children being seen in emergency departments (ED) of developing countries. The pediatric disease burden in EDs across Pakistan is generally unknown. Our main objective was to determine the spectrum of disease and injury among children seen in EDs in Pakistan through a nationwide ED-based surveillance system. METHODS: Through the Pakistan National Emergency Department Surveillance (Pak-NEDS), data were collected from November 2010 to March 2011 in seven major tertiary care centers representing all provinces of Pakistan. These included five public and two private hospitals, with a collective annual census of over one million ED encounters. RESULTS: Of 25,052 children registered in Pak-NEDS (10% of all patients seen): 61% were male, 13% under 5 years, while almost 65% were between 10 to < 16 years. The majority (90%) were seen in public hospital EDs. About half the patients were discharged from the EDs, 9% admitted to hospitals and only 1.3% died in the EDs. Injury (39%) was the most common presenting complaint, followed by fever/malaise (19%) and gastrointestinal symptoms (18%). Injury was more likely in males vs. females (43% vs. 33%; p < 0.001), with a peak presentation in the 5-12 year age group (45%). CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric patients constitute a smaller proportion among general ED users in Pakistan. Injury is the most common presenting complaint for children seen in the ED. These data will help in resource allocation for cost effective pediatric ED service delivery systems. Prospective longer duration surveillance is needed in more representative pediatric EDs across Pakistan.

Overcrowding in the emergency departments: Challenges and opportunities for improvement.

With the advent of Emergency Medicine, one can observe an increase in the number of Emergency Departments (ED) across the country. However, most EDs struggle due to an overwhelming number of patients. Overcrowding can lead to delays in patient care. For a city like Karachi which is an active disaster zone, preemptive preparedness is required in the face of terror threats and such overcrowding needs to be decreased to a bare minimum. The most frequent causes of prolonged length of stay (LOS) in the ED include non-availability of in-hospital beds, delays in response to subspecialty consultations and escalating medical expenses. All of these can negatively impact patient care by putting patient safety at risk and patient care in jeopardy. There is an increased risk of unintentional medical errors and a concomitant increase in unwanted lawsuits. A few simple interventions which may help alleviate this situation to some extent have been discussed.

A Prospective Study Evaluating Gender Differences of Serious Outcomes through Difficult Airway Physiological Score (DAPS) in the Emergency Department.

Introduction: Gender variation in critically ill adults after resuscitation is reported in many studies. However, this variation is not well established when evaluating the physiological instability in this population. This study aimed to prospectively evaluate the gender variation in serious outcomes by the difficult airway physiological score (DAPS) among critically ill patients requiring endotracheal intubation (ETI). Methods: This is a cohort study conducted from August 2021 to December 2022 in the emergency department of Aga Khan University. The prospective validity of the difficult airway physiological score was derived using retrospective data and includes 12 variables: sex, age, time of intubation, hypotension, respiratory distress, vomiting, shock index >0.9, pH < 7.3, fever, anticipated decline, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) < 15, and agitation. The serious outcomes were cardiac arrest, mortality (within 1 hour after intubation in emergency), hypotension (systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg), and oxygen desaturation (SpO2 < 92%). The difference between males and females was assessed using the chi-square test, and the association of gender and serious outcomes was explored using Cox and logistic regression analysis. ROC curve analysis and area under the curve assessed score validity separately in males and females with serious outcomes. Results: We enrolled 326 patients with a mean age of 50.3 (±17.8), with 123 (33.7%) females and 203 (62.2%) males. 198 (60.7%) patients were >45 years old, of which 136 (67%) were male and 62 (50.4%) female. Cardiac arrest was observed in 56 (17.2%), with 24 (19.5%) females and 32 (15.8%) males, p value 0.348. Hypotension after intubation was observed in 132 (40.5%) patients, 56 (45.5%) females and 76 (37.4%) males, p value 0.149. Oxygen saturation (<92%) was observed in 80 (24.5%) patients, 32 (26%) females and 48 (23.6%) males, p value 0.630. In females, the DAPS of 11 had an area under the curve of 0.863 (0.74-0.91). The sensitivity of the score was 84.8%, the specificity was 71.9%, the PPV was 77.8%, and the NPV was 80.4% with an accuracy of 78.9%. In males, the DAPS score of 14 had an area under the curve of 0.892 (0.57-0.75). The sensitivity of the score was 67%, the specificity 93.8%, the PPV 92.2%, and the NPV 72.2% with an accuracy of 79.8%. Conclusions: The Difficult Airway Physiological Score (DAPS) predicts the risk of serious outcomes after intubation with high precision and reliability with different score cutoffs between the two sexes, highlighting the gender variation of a difficult airway.

A Biomarker-Based Approach to Infectious Disease in the Pediatric Emergency Department.

In modern pediatric emergency medicine, biomarker-based assays that enable quick bedside diagnostics and subsequent disease management can be valuable. There is a growing need for novel, disease-specific biomarkers that can improve the outcome of pediatric infectious diseases commonly encountered in the emergency department (ED). Viral respiratory infections, central nervous system infections, sepsis, and septic shock are acute disease states frequently encountered in the ED. In this review, we describe a host of novel biomarkers, including a diverse set of cytokines, chemokines, and nitric oxide-based metabolites. Based on disease pathophysiology, a rationale is provided for a molecular- or biomarker-based approach in the ED. Throughout this review, emphasis is placed on diagnostic rapidity because this relates directly to timeliness and quality of care in a busy ED. Once the biomarkers become more clinically available, in a rapid ED setting as bedside point-of-care assays, quality of care will be enhanced, not only by means of diagnostics but also in prognosticating severity of illness.

Perceptions, challenges and experiences of frontline healthcare providers in Emergency Departments regarding Workplace Violence during the COVID-19 pandemic: A protocol for an exploratory qualitative study from an LMIC.

INTRODUCTION: Workplace violence (WPV) against Healthcare Workers (HCWs) has emerged as a global issue. Emergency Department (ED) HCWs as front liners are more vulnerable to it due to the nature of their work and exposure to unique medical and social situations. COVID-19 pandemic has led to a surge in the number of cases of WPV against HCWs, especially against ED HCWs. In most cases, the perpetrators of these acts of violence are the patients and their attendants as families. The causes of this rise are multifactorial; these include the inaccurate spread of information and rumours through social media, certain religious perspectives, propaganda and increasing anger and frustration among the general public,ED overcrowding, staff shortages etc. We aim to conduct a qualitative exploratory study among the ED frontline care providers at the two major EDs of Karachi city. The purpose of this study is to determine the perceptions, challenges and experiences regarding WPV faced by ED healthcare providers during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: For this research study, a qualitative exploratory research design will be employed using in-depth interviews and a purposive sampling approach. Data will be collected using in-depth interviews from study participants working at the EDs of Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre (JPMC) and the Aga Khan University Hospital(AKUH) Karachi, Pakistan. Thestudy data will be analysed thematically using NVivo V.12 Plus software. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The ethical approval for this study was obtained from the Aga Khan University Ethical Review Committee and from Jinnah postgraduate Medical Center (JPMC). The results of the study will be disseminated to the scientific community and to the research subjects participating in the study.The findings of this study will help to explore the perceptions of ED healthcare providers regarding WPV during the COVID-19 pandemic and provide a better understanding of study participant's' challenges concerning WPV during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pediatric Appendicitis Score for Identifying Acute Appendicitis in Children Presenting With Acute Abdominal Pain to the Emergency Department.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of Pediatric Appendicitis Score (PAS) in predicting appendicitis in children presenting with acute abdominal pain to the Emergency Department (ED) of a private hospital in Pakistan. METHODS: This validation study was through retrospective chart review of children between 4-18 years of age with clinical suspicion of acute appendicitis, presenting to the pediatric ED. Diagnostic accuracy was determined using sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: 104 children (76% boys) with mean (SD) age of 10.9 (3.5) years met the eligibility criteria. 91% (n=95) patients had moderate to high PAS (score ³4), and 95% (n=99) had biopsy-proven appendicitis. The likelihood ratio calculated for low, equivocal and high-risk PAS was 0.10, 2.17 and 2.53, respectively. An equivocal PAS (score 4-6) showed a sensitivity of 96.8%, specificity of 80%, positive predictive value of 98.9% and AUC of 0.84 for predicting acute appendicitis. CONCLUSION: PAS showed good diagnostic accuracy in predicting acute appendicitis in children presenting to the ED.

Urinary nitrate might be an early biomarker for pediatric acute kidney injury in the emergency department.

NO is involved in normal kidney function and perturbed in acute kidney injury (AKI). We hypothesized that urinary concentration of NO metabolites, nitrite, and nitrate would be lower in children with early AKI presenting to the emergency department (ED), when serum creatinine (SCr) was uninformative. Patients up to 19 y were recruited if they had a urinalysis and SCr obtained for routine care. Primary outcome, AKI, was defined by pediatric Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss of function, End-stage renal disease (pRIFLE) criteria. Urinary nitrite and nitrate were determined by HPLC. A total of 252 patients were enrolled, the majority (93%) of whom were without AKI. Although 18 (7%) had AKI by pRIFLE, 50% may not have had it identified by the SCr value alone at the time of visit. Median urinary nitrate was lower for injury versus risk (p = 0.03); this difference remained significant when the injury group was compared against the combined risk and no AKI groups (p = 0.01). Urinary nitrite was not significantly different between groups. Thus, low urinary nitrate is associated with AKI in the pediatric ED even when SCr is normal. Predictive potential of this putative urinary biomarker for AKI needs further evaluation in sicker patients.

Urinary biomarkers to detect acute kidney injury in the pediatric emergency center.

We conducted a prospective study in pediatric patients presenting to an emergency center (EC) to (1) test the ability of urinary acute kidney injury (AKI) biomarkers to predict AKI presence and severity and (2) determine if these biomarkers offer similar precision in patients with versus without a known baseline SCr. The accuracy of five putative urinary biomarkers to detect AKI presence and severity was evaluated in 252 children presenting to our EC. AKI was defined by the modified pediatric RIFLE (pRIFLE) system. Eighteen children had AKI by pRIFLE, yet 33-50% of these AKI cases may have been missed since the EC SCr was <1 mg/dl. Urinary NGAL, Kidney Injury Molecule-1 (KIM-1) and beta-2 microglobulin (ß2M) all demonstrated good to very good accuracy (AUC>0.70 to 0.80) to predict patients with pRIFLE-Injury (>50% decrease in eCCl) versus patients with pRIFLE-Risk (25-50% decrease in eCCl) or without AKI. Our data suggest urinary biomarkers may serve well to detect AKI accurately in the pediatric EC setting, even in cases where SCr levels are normal. Further study is required to determine if these biomarkers obtained in the EC can predict AKI development or progression in hospitalized patients.

Phase 2 comparison of a novel ammonia scavenging agent with sodium phenylbutyrate in patients with urea cycle disorders: safety, pharmacokinetics and ammonia control.

UNLABELLED: Glycerol phenylbutyrate (glyceryl tri (4-phenylbutyrate)) (GPB) is being studied as an alternative to sodium phenylbutyrate (NaPBA) for the treatment of urea cycle disorders (UCDs). This phase 2 study explored the hypothesis that GPB offers similar safety and ammonia control as NaPBA, which is currently approved as adjunctive therapy in the chronic management of UCDs, and examined correlates of 24-h blood ammonia. METHODS: An open-label, fixed sequence switch-over study was conducted in adult UCD patients taking maintenance NaPBA. Blood ammonia and blood and urine metabolites were compared after 7 days (steady state) of TID dosing on either drug, both dosed to deliver the same amount of phenylbutyric acid (PBA). RESULTS: Ten subjects completed the study. Adverse events were comparable for the two drugs; 2 subjects experienced hyperammonemic events on NaPBA while none occurred on GPB. Ammonia values on GPB were approximately 30% lower than on NaPBA (time-normalized AUC=26.2 vs. 38.4 micromol/L; Cmax=56.3 vs. 79.1 micromol/L; not statistically significant), and GPB achieved non-inferiority to NaPBA with respect to ammonia (time-normalized AUC) by post hoc analysis. Systemic exposure (AUC(0-24)) to PBA on GPB was 27% lower than on NaPBA (540 vs. 739 microgh/mL), whereas exposure to phenylacetic acid (PAA) (575 vs. 596 microg h/mL) and phenylacetylglutamine (PAGN) (1098 vs. 1133 microg h/mL) were similar. Urinary PAGN excretion accounted for approximately 54% of PBA administered for both NaPBA and GPB; other metabolites accounted for <1%. Intact GPB was generally undetectable in blood and urine. Blood ammonia correlated strongly and inversely with urinary PAGN (r=-0.82; p<0.0001) but weakly or not at all with blood metabolite levels. CONCLUSIONS: Safety and ammonia control with GPB appear at least equal to NaPBA. Urinary PAGN, which is stoichiometrically related to nitrogen scavenging, may be a useful biomarker for both dose selection and adjustment for optimal control of venous ammonia.