Inference on the Genetic Architecture of Breast Cancer Risk.

BACKGROUND: What are the major determinants of women's breast cancer risk? Rare mutations such as those in the BRCA1/2 genes, polygenic scores of common alleles identified by genome-wide association studies, or nongenetic factors? METHODS: The population-based Nordic Twin Study of Cancer, with 3,933 breast cancer cases among 21,054 monozygotic (MZ) and 30,939 dizygotic (DZ) female twin pairs, provides three key clues to this question: (i) the average lifetime risk, approximately 8%, does not differ by twin zygosity; (ii) the mean time interval between diagnoses when both twins develop disease (i.e., disease concordance) also does not differ by zygosity; but, (iii) conditioning on one twin having developed disease, the incidence rate in the co-twin is approximately 1% per year if the pair is MZ and 0.5% per year if DZ. RESULTS: Assuming that nongenetic risk factors are shared similarly between twins regardless of zygosity, we can draw two conclusions from (i) to (iii). CONCLUSIONS: First, (i) and (iii) imply that the chief determinant of risk is in the germline DNA, because the conditional incidence rate is several-fold higher than the average risk (8% lifetime) in MZ twins but only half as much in DZ twins. Second, the seeming inconsistency between the two-fold conditional incidence rate (iii) and the equality of the mean inter-twin disease intervals in disease concordance (ii) can be resolved if the risk factors in the germline DNA are rare variants, not common variants. IMPACT: This paper details simple deductive reasoning for these conclusions and draws a critical inference regarding breast cancer etiology. See related In the Spotlight, p. 1477.

CpG mutation rates in the human genome are highly dependent on local GC content.

CpG dinucleotides mutate at a high rate because cytosine is vulnerable to deamination, cytosines in CpG dinucleotides are often methylated, and deamination of 5-methylcytosine (5mC) produces thymidine. Previous experiments have shown that DNA melting is the rate-limiting step in cytosine deamination. Here we show, through the analysis of human single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), that the mutation rate produced by 5mC deamination is highly dependent on local GC content. In fact, linear regression analysis showed that the log(10) of the 5mC mutation rates (inferred from SNP frequencies) had slopes of -3 when graphed with respect to the GC content of neighboring sequences. This is the ideal slope that would be expected if the correlation between CpG underrepresentation and GC content had been solely caused by DNA melting. Moreover, this same result was obtained regardless of the SNP locations (all SNPs versus only SNPs in noncoding intergenic regions, excluding CpG islands) and regardless of the lengths over which GC content was calculated (SNP sequences with a modal length of 564 bp versus genomic contigs with a modal length of 163 kb). Several alternative interpretations are discussed.