Modelling blue carbon farming opportunities at different spatial scales.

There is a growing interest in including blue carbon ecosystems (i.e., mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses) in climate mitigation programs in national and sub-national policies, with restoration and conservation of these ecosystems identified as potential activities to increase carbon accumulation through time. However, there is still a gap on the spatial scales needed to produce carbon offsets comparable with terrestrial or agricultural ecosystems. Here, we used the Coastal Blue Carbon InVEST 3.7.0 model to estimate future net carbon sequestration in blue carbon ecosystems along Australia's Great Barrier Reef (hereafter GBR) catchments, considering different management scenarios (i.e., reintroduction of tidal exchange through the removal of barriers, sea level rise, restoring low lying land) at three different spatial scales: whole GBR coastline, regional (14,000-16,300 ha), and local (335-370 ha) scales. The focus of the restoration (i.e., tidal marshes and/or mangroves) was dependent on data availability for each scenario. Furthermore, we also estimated the monetary value of carbon sequestration under each management scenario and spatial scale assessed in the study. We found that large scale restoration of tidal marshes could potentially sequester an additional ∼800,000 tonnes of CO2e by 2045 (potentially generating AU$12 million based on the average Australia carbon price), with greater opportunities when sea level rise is accounted for in the modelling. Also, we found that regional and local projects would generate up to 23 tonnes CO2e ha-1 by the end of the crediting period. Our results can guide future decisions in the blue carbon market and financing schemes, however, the return on investment is dependent on the carbon price and funding scheme available for project implementation.

A Decade of Death and Other Dynamics: Deepening Perspectives on the Diversity and Distribution of Sea Stars and Wasting.

AbstractMass mortality events provide valuable insight into biological extremes and also ecological interactions more generally. The sea star wasting epidemic that began in 2013 catalyzed study of the microbiome, genetics, population dynamics, and community ecology of several high-profile species inhabiting the northeastern Pacific but exposed a dearth of information on the diversity, distributions, and impacts of sea star wasting for many lesser-known sea stars and a need for integration across scales. Here, we combine datasets from single-site to coast-wide studies, across time lines from weeks to decades, for 65 species. We evaluated the impacts of abiotic characteristics hypothetically associated with sea star wasting (sea surface temperature, pelagic primary productivity, upwelling wind forcing, wave exposure, freshwater runoff) and species characteristics (depth distribution, developmental mode, diet, habitat, reproductive period). We find that the 2010s sea star wasting outbreak clearly affected a little over a dozen species, primarily intertidal and shallow subtidal taxa, causing instantaneous wasting prevalence rates of 5%-80%. Despite the collapse of some populations within weeks, environmental and species variation protracted the outbreak, which lasted 2-3 years from onset until declining to chronic background rates of ∼2% sea star wasting prevalence. Recruitment began immediately in many species, and in general, sea star assemblages trended toward recovery; however, recovery was heterogeneous, and a marine heatwave in 2019 raised concerns of a second decline. The abiotic stressors most associated with the 2010s sea star wasting outbreak were elevated sea surface temperature and low wave exposure, as well as freshwater discharge in the north. However, detailed data speaking directly to the biological, ecological, and environmental cause(s) and consequences of the sea star wasting outbreak remain limited in scope, unavoidably retrospective, and perhaps always indeterminate. Redressing this shortfall for the future will require a broad spectrum of monitoring studies not less than the taxonomically broad cross-scale framework we have modeled in this synthesis.

Expansion of intertidal mussel beds following disease-driven reduction of a keystone predator.

Disease shapes community composition by removing species with strong interactions. To test whether the absence of keystone predation due to disease produced changes to the species composition of rocky intertidal communities, we leverage a natural experiment involving mass mortality of the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus from Sea Star Wasting Syndrome. Over four years, we measured dimensions of mussel beds, sizes of Mytilus californianus, mussel recruitment, and species composition on vertical rock walls at six rocky intertidal sites on the central California coast. We also assessed the relationship between changes in mussel cover and changes in sea star density across 33 sites along the North American Pacific coast using data from long-term monitoring. After four years, the lower boundary of the central California mussel beds shifted downward toward the water 18.7 ± 15.8 cm (SD) on the rock and 11.7 ± 11.0 cm in elevation, while the upper boundary remained unchanged. In central California, downward expansion and total area of the mussel bed were positively correlated with mussel recruitment but were not correlated with pre-disease sea star density or biomass. At a multi-region scale, changes in mussel percent cover were positively correlated with pre-disease sea star densities but not change in densities. Species composition of primary substrate holders and epibionts below the mussel bed remained similar across years. Extirpation of the community below the bed did not occur. Instead, this community became limited to a smaller spatial extent while the mussel bed expanded.

Estimating blue carbon sequestration under coastal management scenarios.

Restoring and protecting "blue carbon" ecosystems - mangrove forests, tidal marshes, and seagrass meadows - are actions considered for increasing global carbon sequestration. To improve understanding of which management actions produce the greatest gains in sequestration, we used a spatially explicit model to compare carbon sequestration and its economic value over a broad spatial scale (2500 km of coastline in southeastern Australia) for four management scenarios: (1) Managed Retreat, (2) Managed Retreat Plus Levee Removal, (3) Erosion of High Risk Areas, (4) Erosion of Moderate to High Risk Areas. We found that carbon sequestration from avoiding erosion-related emissions (abatement) would far exceed sequestration from coastal restoration. If erosion were limited only to the areas with highest erosion risk, sequestration in the non-eroded area exceeded emissions by 4.2 million Mg CO2 by 2100. However, losing blue carbon ecosystems in both moderate and high erosion risk areas would result in net emissions of 23.0 million Mg CO2 by 2100. The removal of levees combined with managed retreat was the strategy that sequestered the most carbon. Across all time points, removal of levees increased sequestration by only an additional 1 to 3% compared to managed retreat alone. Compared to the baseline erosion scenario, the managed retreat scenario increased sequestration by 7.40 million Mg CO2 by 2030, 8.69 million Mg CO2 by 2050, and 16.6 million Mg CO2 by 2100. Associated economic value followed the same patterns, with large potential value loss from erosion greater than potential gains from conserving or restoring ecosystems. This study quantifies the potential benefits of managed retreat and preventing erosion in existing blue carbon ecosystems to help meet climate change mitigation goals by reducing carbon emissions.

Reduction and recovery of keystone predation pressure after disease-related mass mortality.

Disturbances such as disease can reshape communities through interruption of ecological interactions. Changes to population demographics alter how effectively a species performs its ecological role. While a population may recover in density, this may not translate to recovery of ecological function. In 2013, a sea star wasting syndrome outbreak caused mass mortality of the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus on the North American Pacific coast. We analyzed sea star counts, biomass, size distributions, and recruitment from long-term intertidal monitoring sites from San Diego to Alaska to assess regional trends in sea star recovery following the outbreak. Recruitment, an indicator of population recovery, has been spatially patchy and varied within and among regions of the coast. Despite sea star counts approaching predisease numbers, sea star biomass, a measure of predation potential on the mussel Mytilus californianus, has remained low. This indicates that post-outbreak populations have not regained their full predation pressure. The regional variability in percent of recovering sites suggested differences in factors promoting sea star recovery between regions but did not show consistent patterns in postoutbreak recruitment on a coast-wide scale. These results shape predictions of where changes in community composition are likely to occur in years following the disease outbreak and provide insight into how populations of keystone species resume their ecological roles following mortality-inducing disturbances.

Up in Arms: Immune and Nervous System Response to Sea Star Wasting Disease.

Echinoderms, positioned taxonomically at the base of deuterostomes, provide an important system for the study of the evolution of the immune system. However, there is little known about the cellular components and genes associated with echinoderm immunity. The 2013-2014 sea star wasting disease outbreak is an emergent, rapidly spreading disease, which has led to large population declines of asteroids in the North American Pacific. While evidence suggests that the signs of this disease, twisting arms and lesions, may be attributed to a viral infection, the host response to infection is still poorly understood. In order to examine transcriptional responses of the sea star Pycnopodia helianthoides to sea star wasting disease, we injected a viral sized fraction (0.2 µm) homogenate prepared from symptomatic P. helianthoides into apparently healthy stars. Nine days following injection, when all stars were displaying signs of the disease, specimens were sacrificed and coelomocytes were extracted for RNA-seq analyses. A number of immune genes, including those involved in Toll signaling pathways, complement cascade, melanization response, and arachidonic acid metabolism, were differentially expressed. Furthermore, genes involved in nervous system processes and tissue remodeling were also differentially expressed, pointing to transcriptional changes underlying the signs of sea star wasting disease. The genomic resources presented here not only increase understanding of host response to sea star wasting disease, but also provide greater insight into the mechanisms underlying immune function in echinoderms.