Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.

Re-assessing the late HIV diagnosis surveillance definition in the era of increased and frequent testing.

OBJECTIVES: Late HIV diagnosis (CD4 <350 cells/mm3 ) is a key public health metric. In an era of more frequent testing, the likelihood of HIV diagnosis occurring during seroconversion, when CD4 counts may dip below 350, is greater. We applied a correction, considering markers of recent infection, and re-assessed 1-year mortality following late diagnosis. METHODS: We used national epidemiological and laboratory surveillance data from all people diagnosed with HIV in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (EW&NI). Those with a baseline CD4 <350 were reclassified as 'not late' if they had evidence of recent infection (recency test and/or negative test within 24 months). A correction factor (CF) was the number reclassified divided by the number with a CD4 <350. RESULTS: Of the 32 227 people diagnosed with HIV in EW&NI between 2011 and 2019 with a baseline CD4 (81% of total), 46% had a CD4 <350 (uncorrected late diagnosis rate): 34% of gay and bisexual men (GBM), 65% of heterosexual men, and 56% of heterosexual women. Accounting for recency test and/or prior negative tests gave a 'corrected' late diagnosis rate of 39% and corresponding CF of 14%. The CF increased from 10% to 18% during 2011-2015, then plateaued, and was larger among GBM (25%) than heterosexual men and women (6% and 7%, respectively). One-year mortality among people diagnosed late was 329 per 10 000 after reclassification (an increase from 288/10 000). CONCLUSIONS: The case-surveillance definition of late diagnosis increasingly overestimates late presentation, the extent of which differs by key populations. Adjustment of late diagnosis is recommended, particularly for frequent testers such as GBM.

PrEP use and unmet PrEP-need among men who have sex with men in London prior to the implementation of a national PrEP programme, a cross-sectional study from June to August 2019.

BACKGROUND: Access to prevention options, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), remains a public health priority for gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM), especially in London. We describe PrEP use in a London community sample of MSM before the introduction of a national PrEP programme in October 2020. METHODS: From June-August 2019, MSM aged ≥ 18 recruited from London commercial venues were asked to self-complete a sexual health questionnaire and provide an oral fluid sample for anonymous HIV antibody testing. Descriptive analyses of demographic characteristics, service engagement and outcomes, as well as sexual risk and prevention behaviours were examined in the survey population and in those reporting current PrEP use. We performed sequential, multivariate analyses examining current PrEP use in MSM of self-perceived HIV-negative/unknown status with identified PrEP-need defined as the report of condomless anal sex (CAS) in the last three months, or the report of CAS (in the last year) with an HIV-positive/unknown status partner not known to be on HIV treatment, in reflection of UK PrEP guidelines. RESULTS: One thousand five hundred and thirty-fifth questionnaires were completed across 34 venues, where 1408 were analysed. One in five MSM of self-perceived HIV-negative/unknown status reported current PrEP use (19.7%, 242/1230). In men with PrEP-need, 68.2% (431/632) did not report current use. Current PrEP use was associated with age (aOR: 3.52, 95% CI: 1.76-7.02 in men aged 40-44 vs men aged 18-25) and education (aOR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.01-2.92 in men with ≥ 2 years/still full-time vs no/ < 2 years of education since age 16). CONCLUSION: Among MSM in London, PrEP use is high but there is indication of unmet PrEP-need in men of younger age and lower levels of post-16 education. National programme monitoring and evaluation will require continued community monitoring to guide interventions ensuring equitable PrEP access and uptake in those who could most benefit from PrEP.

Microdrop Human Immunodeficiency Virus Sequencing for Incidence and Drug Resistance Surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Precise and cost-efficient human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence and drug resistance surveillances are in high demand for the advancement of the 90-90-90 "treatment for all" target. METHODS: We developed microdrop HIV sequencing for the HIV incidence and drug resistance assay (HIDA), a single-blood-draw surveillance tool for incidence and drug resistance mutation (DRM) detection. We amplified full-length HIV envelope and pol gene sequences within microdroplets, and this compartmental amplification with long-read high-throughput sequencing enabled us to recover multiple unique sequences. RESULTS: We achieved greater precision in determining the stage of infection than current incidence assays, with a 1.2% false recency rate (proportion of misclassified chronic infections) and a 262-day mean duration of recent infection (average time span of recent infection classification) from 83 recently infected and 81 chronically infected individuals. Microdrop HIV sequencing demonstrated an increased capacity to detect minority variants and linked DRMs. By screening all 93 World Health Organization surveillance DRMs, we detected 6 pretreatment drug resistance mutations with 2.6%-13.2% prevalence and cross-linked mutations. CONCLUSIONS: HIDA with microdrop HIV sequencing may promote global HIV real-time surveillance by serving as a precise and high-throughput cross-sectional survey tool that can be generalized for surveillance of other pathogens.

Experiences and lessons learned from the real-world implementation of an HIV recent infection testing algorithm in three routine service-delivery settings in Kenya and Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: Testing for recent HIV infection can distinguish recently acquired infection from long-standing infections. Given current interest in the implementation of recent infection testing algorithms (RITA), we report our experiences in implementing a RITA in three pilot studies and highlight important issues to consider when conducting recency testing in routine settings. METHODS: We applied a RITA, incorporating a limited antigen (LAg) avidity assay, in different routine HIV service-delivery settings in 2018: antenatal care clinics in Siaya County, Kenya, HIV testing and counselling facilities in Nairobi, Kenya, and female sex workers clinics in Zimbabwe. Discussions were conducted with study coordinators, laboratory leads, and facility-based stakeholders to evaluate experiences and lessons learned in relation to implementing recency testing. RESULTS: In Siaya County 10/426 (2.3%) of women testing HIV positive were classified as recent, compared to 46/530 (8.7%) of women and men in Nairobi and 33/313 (10.5%) of female sex workers in Zimbabwe. Across the study setting, we observed differences in acceptance, transport and storage of dried blood spot (DBS) or venous blood samples. For example, the acceptance rate when testing venous blood was 11% lower than when using DBS. Integrating our study into existing services ensured a quick start of the study and kept the amount of additional resources required low. From a laboratory perspective, the LAg avidity assay was initially difficult to operationalise, but developing a network of laboratories and experts to work together helped to improve this. A challenge that was not overcome was the returning of RITA test results to clients. This was due to delays in laboratory testing, the need for multiple test results to satisfy the RITA, difficulties in aligning clinic visits, and participants opting not to return for test results. CONCLUSION: We completed three pilot studies using HIV recency testing based on a RITA in Kenya and Zimbabwe. The main lessons we learned were related to sample collection and handling, LAg avidity assay performance, integration into existing services and returning of test results to participants. Our real-world experience could provide helpful guidance to people currently working on the implementation of HIV recency testing in sub-Saharan Africa.

Surveillance of HIV-1 transmitted integrase strand transfer inhibitor resistance in the UK.

BACKGROUND: HIV treatment guidelines have traditionally recommended that all HIV-positive individuals are tested for evidence of drug resistance prior to starting ART. Testing for resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors and PIs is well established in routine care. However, testing for integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI) resistance is less consistent. OBJECTIVES: To inform treatment guidelines by determining the prevalence of InSTI resistance in a national cohort of recently infected individuals. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Recent (within 4 months) HIV-1 infections were identified using a Recent Infection Testing Algorithm of new HIV-1 diagnoses in the UK. Resistance-associated mutations (RAMs) in integrase, protease and reverse transcriptase were detected by ultradeep sequencing, which allows for the sensitive estimation of the frequency of each resistant variant in a sample. RESULTS: The analysis included 655 randomly selected individuals (median age = 33 years, 95% male, 83% MSM, 78% white) sampled in the period 2014 to 2016 and determined to have a recent infection. These comprised 320, 138 and 197 samples from 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively. None of the samples had major InSTI RAMs occurring at high variant frequency (≥20%). A subset (25/640, 3.9%) had major InSTI RAMs occurring only as low-frequency variants (2%-20%). In contrast, 47/588 (8.0%) had major reverse transcriptase inhibitor and PI RAMs at high frequency. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2014 and 2016, major InSTI RAMs were uncommon in adults with recent HIV-1 infection, only occurring as low-frequency variants of doubtful clinical significance. Continued surveillance of newly diagnosed patients for evidence of transmitted InSTI resistance is recommended to inform clinical practice.

Determining the Origins of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Drug-resistant Minority Variants in People Who Are Recently Infected Using Phylogenetic Reconstruction.

BACKGROUND: Drug-resistant minority variants (DRMinVs) detected in patients who recently acquired human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) can be transmitted, generated de novo through virus replication, or technical errors. The first form is likely to persist and result in treatment failure, while the latter two could be stochastic and transient. METHODS: Ultradeep sequencing of plasma samples from 835 individuals with recent HIV-1 infection in the United Kingdom was performed to detect DRMinVs at a mutation frequency between 2% and 20%. Sequence alignments including >110 000 HIV-1 partial pol consensus sequences from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UK-HDRD), linked to epidemiological and clinical data from the HIV and AIDS Reporting System, were used for transmission cluster analysis. Transmission clusters were identified using Cluster Picker with a clade support of >90% and maximum genetic distances of 4.5% or 1.5%, the latter to limit detection to likely direct transmission events. RESULTS: Drug-resistant majority variants (DRMajVs) were detected in 66 (7.9%) and DRMinVs in 84 (10.1%) of the recently infected individuals. High levels of clustering to sequences in UK-HDRD were observed for both DRMajV (n = 48; 72.7%) and DRMinV (n = 63; 75.0%) sequences. Of these, 43 (65.2%) with DRMajVs were in a transmission cluster with sequences that harbored the same DR mutation compared to only 3 (3.6%) sequences with DRMinVs (P < .00001, Fisher exact test). Evidence of likely direct transmission of DRMajVs was observed for 25/66 (37.9%), whereas none were observed for the DRMinVs (P < .00001). CONCLUSIONS: Using a densely sampled HIV-infected population, we show no evidence of DRMinV transmission among recently infected individuals.

Discrimination between recent and non-recent HIV infections using routine diagnostic serological assays.

The suitability of routine diagnostic HIV assays to accurately discriminate between recent and non-recent HIV infections has not been fully investigated. The aim of this study was to compare an established HIV recency assay, the Sedia limiting antigen HIV avidity assay (LAg), with the diagnostic assays; Abbott ARCHITECT HIV Ag/Ab Combo and INNO-LIA HIV line assays. Samples from all new HIV diagnoses in Ireland from January to December 2016 (n = 455) were tested. An extended logistic regression model, the Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones method, was utilised to establish a scoring system to predict recency of HIV infection. As proof of concept, 50 well-characterised samples were obtained from the CEPHIA repository whose stage of infection was blinded to the authors, which were tested and analysed. The proportion of samples that were determined as recent was 18.1% for LAg, 6.4% with the ARCHITECT, and 14.5% in the INNO-LIA assay. There was a significant correlation between the ARCHITECT S/CO values and the LAg results, r = 0.717, p < 0.001. ROC analysis revealed that an ARCHITECT S/CO < 250 had a sensitivity and specificity of 90.32% and 89.83%, respectively. Combining the Abbott ARCHITECT HIV Ag/Ab Combo assay and INNO-LIA HIV assays resulted in an observed risk of being recent of 100%. Analysis of the CEPHIA samples revealed a strong agreement between the LAg assay and the combination of routine assays (κ = 0.908, p < 0.001). Our findings provide evidence that assays routinely employed to diagnose and confirm HIV infection may be utilised to determine the recency of HIV infection.

Interpreting HIV diagnostic histories into infection time estimates: analytical framework and online tool.

BACKGROUND: It is frequently of epidemiological and/or clinical interest to estimate the date of HIV infection or time-since-infection of individuals. Yet, for over 15 years, the only widely-referenced infection dating algorithm that utilises diagnostic testing data to estimate time-since-infection has been the 'Fiebig staging' system. This defines a number of stages of early HIV infection through various standard combinations of contemporaneous discordant diagnostic results using tests of different sensitivity. To develop a new, more nuanced infection dating algorithm, we generalised the Fiebig approach to accommodate positive and negative diagnostic results generated on the same or different dates, and arbitrary current or future tests - as long as the test sensitivity is known. For this purpose, test sensitivity is the probability of a positive result as a function of time since infection. METHODS: The present work outlines the analytical framework for infection date estimation using subject-level diagnostic testing histories, and data on test sensitivity. We introduce a publicly-available online HIV infection dating tool that implements this estimation method, bringing together 1) curatorship of HIV test performance data, and 2) infection date estimation functionality, to calculate plausible intervals within which infection likely became detectable for each individual. The midpoints of these intervals are interpreted as infection time 'point estimates' and referred to as Estimated Dates of Detectable Infection (EDDIs). The tool is designed for easy bulk processing of information (as may be appropriate for research studies) but can also be used for individual patients (such as in clinical practice). RESULTS: In many settings, including most research studies, detailed diagnostic testing data are routinely recorded, and can provide reasonably precise estimates of the timing of HIV infection. We present a simple logic to the interpretation of diagnostic testing histories into infection time estimates, either as a point estimate (EDDI) or an interval (earliest plausible to latest plausible dates of detectable infection), along with a publicly-accessible online tool that supports wide application of this logic. CONCLUSIONS: This tool, available at https://tools.incidence-estimation.org/idt/ , is readily updatable as test technology evolves, given the simple architecture of the system and its nature as an open source project.

Combination prevention and HIV: a cross-sectional community survey of gay and bisexual men in London, October to December 2016.

BackgroundMen who have sex with men (MSM) are at risk of HIV and are an important population to monitor and ameliorate combination prevention efforts.AimTo estimate HIV prevalence and identify factors associated with frequent HIV testing (≥ 2 HIV tests in the last year) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use among MSM in London.MethodsFor this cross-sectional study, MSM recruited from 22 social venues provided oral-fluid samples for anonymous HIV antibody (Ab) testing and completed a questionnaire. Factors associated with frequent HIV testing and PrEP use were identified through logistic regression.ResultsOf 767 men recruited, 545 provided an eligible oral specimen. Among these, 38 MSM (7.0%) were anti-HIV positive including five (13.2%; 5/38) who reported their status as negative. Condomless anal sex within the previous 3 months was reported by 60.1% (412/685) men. Frequent HIV testing was associated with, in the past year, a reported sexually transmitted infection (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 5.05; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.66-9.58) or ≥ 2 casual condomless partners (AOR 2-4 partners: 3.65 (95% CI: 1.87-7.10); AOR 5-10 partners: 3.34(95% CI: 1.32-8.49). Age ≥ 35 years was related to less frequent HIV testing (AOR 35-44 years: 0.34 (95% CI: 0.16-0.72); AOR ≥ 45 years: 0.29 (95% CI: 0.12-0.69). PrEP use in the past year was reported by 6.2% (46/744) of MSM and associated with ≥ 2 casual condomless sex partners (AOR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.17-6.98) or chemsex (AOR: 2.31; 95% CI: 1.09-4.91).ConclusionThis bio-behavioural study of MSM found high rates of behaviours associated with increased risk of HIV transmission. Combination prevention, including frequent HIV testing and use of PrEP, remains crucial in London.

Comparison of Detection Limits of Fourth- and Fifth-Generation Combination HIV Antigen-Antibody, p24 Antigen, and Viral Load Assays on Diverse HIV Isolates.

Detection of acute HIV infection is critical for HIV public health and diagnostics. Clinical fourth-generation antigen (Ag)/antibody (Ab) combination (combo) and p24 Ag immunoassays have enhanced detection of acute infection compared to Ab-alone assays but require ongoing evaluation with currently circulating diverse subtypes. Genetically and geographically diverse HIV clinical isolates were used to assess clinical HIV diagnostic, blood screening, and next-generation assays. Three-hundred-member panels of 20 serially diluted well-characterized antibody-negative HIV isolates for which the researchers were blind to the results (blind panels) were distributed to manufacturers and end-user labs to assess the relative analytic sensitivity of currently approved and preapproved clinical HIV fourth-generation Ag/Ab combo or p24 Ag-alone immunoassays for the detection of diverse subtypes. The limits of detection (LODs) of virus were estimated for different subtypes relative to confirmed viral loads. Analysis of immunoassay sensitivity was benchmarked against confirmed viral load measurements on the blind panel. On the basis of the proportion of positive results on 300 observations, all Ag/Ab combo and standard sensitivity p24 Ag assays performed similarly and within half-log LODs, illustrating the similar breadth of reactivity and diagnostic utility. Ultrasensitive p24 Ag assays achieved dramatically increased sensitivities, while the rapid combo assays performed poorly. The similar performance of the different commercially available fourth-generation assays on diverse subtypes supports their use in broad geographic settings with locally circulating HIV clades and recombinant strains. Next-generation preclinical ultrasensitive p24 Ag assays achieved dramatically improved sensitivity, while rapid fourth-generation assays performed poorly for p24 Ag detection.

HIV Antibody Level as a Marker of HIV Persistence and Low-Level Viral Replication.

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibodies are generated and maintained by ongoing systemic expression of HIV antigen. We investigated whether HIV antibody responses as measured by high-throughput quantitative and qualitative assays could be used to indirectly measure persistent HIV replication in individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods: HIV antibody responses were measured over time in the presence or absence of suppressive ART and were compared to the HIV reservoir size and expression of antiviral restriction factors. Results: Among untreated individuals, including both elite controllers (ie, persons with a viral load of ≤40 copies/mL) and noncontrollers, antibody parameters were stable over time and correlated with the individual viral load. Viral suppression with ART led to a progressive decline in antibody responses after treatment induction that persisted for 5-7 years. Higher levels of HIV antibodies during suppressive therapy were associated with later initiation of ART after infection, with higher DNA and cell-associated RNA levels, and with lower expression of multiple anti-HIV host restriction factors. Discussion: These findings suggest that declining antibody levels during ART reflect lower levels of antigen production and/or viral replication in the persistent HIV reservoir. Results of relatively inexpensive and quantitative HIV antibody assays may be useful indirect markers that enable efficient monitoring of the viral reservoir and suppression during functional-cure interventions.

A Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Sequences in Kiev: Findings Among Key Populations.

Background: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in Ukraine has been driven by a rapid rise among people who inject drugs, but recent studies have shown an increase through sexual transmission. Methods: Protease and reverse transcriptase sequences from 876 new HIV diagnoses (April 2013-March 2015) in Kiev were linked to demographic data. We constructed phylogenetic trees for 794 subtype A1 and 64 subtype B sequences and identified factors associated with transmission clustering. Clusters were defined as ≥2 sequences, ≥80% local branch support, and maximum genetic distance of all sequence pairs in the cluster ≤2.5%. Recent infection was determined through the limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay. Sequences were analyzed for transmitted drug resistance mutations. Results: Thirty percent of subtype A1 and 66% of subtype B sequences clustered. Large clusters (maximum 11 sequences) contained mixed risk groups. In univariate analysis, clustering was significantly associated with subtype B compared to A1 (odds ratio [OR], 4.38 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.56-7.50]); risk group (OR, 5.65 [95% CI, 3.27-9.75]) for men who have sex with men compared to heterosexual males; recent, compared to long-standing, infection (OR, 2.72 [95% CI, 1.64-4.52]); reported sex work contact (OR, 1.93 [95% CI, 1.07-3.47]); and younger age groups compared with age ≥36 years (OR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.10-3.05] for age ≤25 years). Females were associated with lower odds of clustering than heterosexual males (OR, 0.49 [95% CI, .31-.77]). In multivariate analysis, risk group, subtype, and age group were independently associated with clustering (P < .001, P = .007, and P = .033, respectively). Eighteen sequences (2.1%) indicated evidence of transmitted drug resistance. Conclusions: Our findings suggest high levels of transmission and bridging between risk groups.

Enhanced surveillance of HIV-1 drug resistance in recently infected MSM in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of inferred low-frequency HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in MSM in the UK and its predicted effect on first-line therapy. METHODS: The HIV-1 pol gene was amplified from 442 newly diagnosed MSM identified as likely recently infected by serological avidity testing in 2011-13. The PCR products were sequenced by next-generation sequencing with a mutation frequency threshold of >2% and TDR mutations defined according to the 2009 WHO surveillance drug resistance mutations list. RESULTS: The majority (75.6%) were infected with subtype B and 6.6% with rare complex or unique recombinant forms. At a mutation frequency threshold of >20%, 7.2% (95% CI 5.0%-10.1%) of the sequences had TDR and this doubled to 15.8% (95% CI 12.6%-19.6%) at >2% mutation frequency (P < 0.0001). The majority (26/42, 62%) of low-frequency variants were against PIs. The most common mutations detected at >20% and 2%-20% mutation frequency differed for each drug class, these respectively being: L90M (n = 7) and M46IL (n = 10) for PIs; T215rev (n = 9) and D67GN (n = 4) for NRTIs; and K103N (n = 5) and G190E (n = 2) for NNRTIs. Combined TDR was more frequent in subtype B than non-B (OR = 0.38; 95% CI = 0.17-0.88; P = 0.024) and had minimal predicted effect on recommended first-line therapies. CONCLUSIONS: The data suggest differences in the types of low-frequency compared with majority TDR variants that require a better understanding of the origins and clinical significance of low-frequency variants. This will better inform diagnostic and treatment strategies.

Regional-scale dominance of non-framework building corals on Caribbean reefs affects carbonate production and future reef growth.

Coral cover on Caribbean reefs has declined rapidly since the early 1980's. Diseases have been a major driver, decimating communities of framework building Acropora and Orbicella coral species, and reportedly leading to the emergence of novel coral assemblages often dominated by domed and plating species of the genera Agaricia, Porites and Siderastrea. These corals were not historically important Caribbean framework builders, and typically have much smaller stature and lower calcification rates, fuelling concerns over reef carbonate production and growth potential. Using data from 75 reefs from across the Caribbean we quantify: (i) the magnitude of non-framework building coral dominance throughout the region and (ii) the contribution of these corals to contemporary carbonate production. Our data show that live coral cover averages 18.2% across our sites and coral carbonate production 4.1 kg CaCO3  m(-2)  yr(-1) . However, non-framework building coral species dominate and are major carbonate producers at a high proportion of sites; they are more abundant than Acropora and Orbicella at 73% of sites; contribute an average 68% of the carbonate produced; and produce more than half the carbonate at 79% of sites. Coral cover and carbonate production rate are strongly correlated but, as relative abundance of non-framework building corals increases, average carbonate production rates decline. Consequently, the use of coral cover as a predictor of carbonate budget status, without species level production rate data, needs to be treated with caution. Our findings provide compelling evidence for the Caribbean-wide dominance of non-framework building coral taxa, and that these species are now major regional carbonate producers. However, because these species typically have lower calcification rates, continued transitions to states dominated by non-framework building coral species will further reduce carbonate production rates below 'predecline' levels, resulting in shifts towards negative carbonate budget states and reducing reef growth potential.

Changing dynamics of Caribbean reef carbonate budgets: emergence of reef bioeroders as critical controls on present and future reef growth potential.

Coral cover has declined rapidly on Caribbean reefs since the early 1980s, reducing carbonate production and reef growth. Using a cross-regional dataset, we show that widespread reductions in bioerosion rates-a key carbonate cycling process-have accompanied carbonate production declines. Bioerosion by parrotfish, urchins, endolithic sponges and microendoliths collectively averages 2 G (where G = kg CaCO3 m(-2) yr(-1)) (range 0.96-3.67 G). This rate is at least 75% lower than that reported from Caribbean reefs prior to their shift towards their present degraded state. Despite chronic overfishing, parrotfish are the dominant bioeroders, but erosion rates are reduced from averages of approximately 4 to 1.6 G. Urchin erosion rates have declined further and are functionally irrelevant to bioerosion on most reefs. These changes demonstrate a fundamental shift in Caribbean reef carbonate budget dynamics. To-date, reduced bioerosion rates have partially offset carbonate production declines, limiting the extent to which more widespread transitions to negative budget states have occurred. However, given the poor prognosis for coral recovery in the Caribbean and reported shifts to coral community states dominated by slower calcifying taxa, a continued transition from production to bioerosion-controlled budget states, which will increasingly threaten reef growth, is predicted.

High percentage of recent HIV infection leading to onward transmission in Odessa, Ukraine associated with young adults.

The proportion of new HIV diagnoses between May and December 2009 across Odessa recently-infected was estimated using the BED-CEIA assay. Logistic regression models were used to explore factors associated with testing as recent. Of 1,313 newly-diagnosed individuals, 321 (24 %) were classified as recent. Recent infection was less likely among older adults [odds ratio (OR) = 0.70 per 10-year increase, 95 % CI 0.60-0.82]. Compared to men residing in Odessa city, women in rural Odessa and non-resident men were more likely to be recently-infected (OR 1.85, 1.26-2.71 and 2.83, 1.15-6.97, respectively). Reason for test was not associated with recent infection. In sensitivity analysis, after excluding individuals tested due to clinical indications, the proportion recently-infected and the association with age remained virtually unchanged. Our findings suggest a high risk of onward transmission, particularly in younger age groups. These findings highlight the need for tailored prevention strategies and ongoing RITA testing to monitor and evaluate effectiveness of prevention programmes.

Non-disclosure of HIV status in UK sexual health clinics--a pilot study to identify non-disclosure within a national unlinked anonymous seroprevalence survey.

OBJECTIVES: To identify if HIV-infected individuals attending genitourinary clinics in the UK are not disclosing their HIV status, and to examine the potential utility of drug detection as a method to indicate non-disclosure. METHODS: HIV-positive samples from the unlinked anonymous seroprevalence survey from one London centre in 2009 had viral load (VL) assays performed to identify samples with VL below the level of detection (50 copies/ml, VLBLD) or <1000 copies/ml. After data matching, known HIV positives were excluded and the remaining samples analysed for the presence of a panel of antiretroviral drugs. RESULTS: Of 130 HIV-positive samples with sufficient clinical information and not undergoing an HIV test, 18 were classified as remaining undiagnosed after the clinic visit. Thirteen (72%, 95% CI: 47% to 90%) had a VLBLD (n=11) or VL <1000 copies/ml (n=2). Eight had sufficient volume to undergo ARV testing, and all were positive for the presence of drug; all with therapeutic levels of clinically appropriate combinations. CONCLUSIONS: Non-disclosure of HIV status occurs among individuals attending sexual health services in the UK. This study demonstrates the feasibility and utility of using both VL and ARV assays in serum samples. Furthermore, the close correlation of detection of ARV with VLBLD suggests drug detection would be a useful tool to monitor non-disclosure prospectively, thus enabling the use of stored serum samples in future studies. The extent to which these findings can be extrapolated to other settings, and the potential impact of non-disclosure on undiagnosed estimates warrants urgent prospective study.

Ecosystem design as an avenue for improving services provided by carbonate producing marine ecosystems.

Ecosystem Design (ED) is an approach for constructing habitats that places human needs for ecosystem services at the center of intervention, with the overarching goal of establishing self-sustaining habitats which require limited management. This concept was originally developed for use in mangrove ecosystems, and is understandably controversial, as it markedly diverges from other protection approaches that assign human use a minor priority or exclude it. However, the advantage of ED lies within the considered implementation of these designed ecosystems, thus preserving human benefits from potential later disturbances. Here, we outline the concept of ED in tropical carbonate depositional systems and discuss potential applications to aid ecosystem services such as beach nourishment and protection of coastlines and reef islands at risk from environmental and climate change, CO2 sequestration, food production, and tourism. Biological carbonate sediment production is a crucial source of stability of reef islands and reef-rimmed coastlines. Careful implementation of designed carbonate depositional ecosystems could help counterbalance sea-level rise and manage documented erosion effects of coastal constructions. Importantly, adhering to the core ethos of ED, careful dynamic assessments which provide a balanced approach to maximizing ecosystem services (e.g., carbonate production), should identify and avoid any potential damages to existing functioning ecosystems.

Can HIV recent infection surveillance help us better understand where primary prevention efforts should be targeted? Results of three pilots integrating a recent infection testing algorithm into routine programme activities in Kenya and Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: Surveillance of recent HIV infections in national testing services has the potential to inform primary prevention programming activities. Focusing on procedures required to accurately determine recent infection, and the potential for recent infection surveillance to inform prevention efforts, we present the results of three independent but linked pilots of recency testing. METHODS: To distinguish recently acquired HIV infection from long-standing infection, in 2018 we applied a Recent Infection Testing Algorithm that combined a laboratory-based Limiting Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunoassay with clinical information (viral-load; history of prior HIV diagnosis; antiretroviral therapy-exposure). We explored potential misclassification of test results and analysed the characteristics of participants with recent infection. We applied the algorithm in antenatal clinics providing prevention of mother-to-child transmission services in Siaya County, Kenya, outreach sites serving female sex workers in Zimbabwe, and routine HIV testing and counselling facilities in Nairobi, Kenya. In Nairobi, we also conducted recency testing among partners of HIV-positive participants. RESULTS: In Siaya County, 2.3% (10/426) of HIV-positive pregnant women were classified as recent. A risk factor analysis comparing women testing recent with those testing HIV-negative found women in their first trimester were significantly more likely to test recent than those in their second or third trimester. In Zimbabwe, 10.5% (33/313) of female sex workers testing HIV-positive through the outreach programme were classified recent. A risk factor analysis of women testing recent versus those testing HIV-negative, found no strong evidence of an association with recent infection. In Nairobi, among 532 HIV-positive women and men, 8.6% (46) were classified recent. Among partners of participants, almost a quarter of those who tested HIV-positive were classified as recent (23.8%; 5/21). In all three settings, the inclusion of clinical information helped improve the positive predictive value of recent infection testing by removing cases that were likely misclassified. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully identified recently acquired infections among persons testing HIV-positive in routine testing settings and highlight the importance of incorporating additional information to accurately classify recent infection. We identified a number of groups with a significantly higher proportion of recent infection, suggesting recent infection surveillance, when rolled-out nationally, may help in further targeting primary prevention efforts.