Spatial clustering of livestock Anthrax events associated with agro-ecological zones in Kenya, 1957-2017.

BACKGROUND: Developing disease risk maps for priority endemic and episodic diseases is becoming increasingly important for more effective disease management, particularly in resource limited countries. For endemic and easily diagnosed diseases such as anthrax, using historical data to identify hotspots and start to define ecological risk factors of its occurrence is a plausible approach. Using 666 livestock anthrax events reported in Kenya over 60 years (1957-2017), we determined the temporal and spatial patterns of the disease as a step towards identifying and characterizing anthrax hotspots in the region. METHODS: Data were initially aggregated by administrative unit and later analyzed by agro-ecological zones (AEZ) to reveal anthrax spatio-temporal trends and patterns. Variations in the occurrence of anthrax events were estimated by fitting Poisson generalized linear mixed-effects models to the data with AEZs and calendar months as fixed effects and sub-counties as random effects. RESULTS: The country reported approximately 10 anthrax events annually, with the number increasing to as many as 50 annually by the year 2005. Spatial classification of the events in eight counties that reported the highest numbers revealed spatial clustering in certain administrative sub-counties, with 12% of the sub-counties responsible for over 30% of anthrax events, whereas 36% did not report any anthrax disease over the 60-year period. When segregated by AEZs, there was significantly greater risk of anthrax disease occurring in agro-alpine, high, and medium potential AEZs when compared to the agriculturally low potential arid and semi-arid AEZs of the country (p < 0.05). Interestingly, cattle were > 10 times more likely to be infected by B. anthracis than sheep, goats, or camels. There was lower risk of anthrax events in August (P = 0.034) and December (P = 0.061), months that follow long and short rain periods, respectively. CONCLUSION: Taken together, these findings suggest existence of certain geographic, ecological, and demographic risk factors that promote B. anthracis persistence and trasmission in the disease hotspots.

Association of the CT values of real-time PCR of viral upper respiratory tract infection with clinical severity, Kenya.

Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assay of the upper respiratory tract is used increasingly to diagnose lower respiratory tract infections. The cycle threshold (CT ) values of qRT-PCR are continuous, semi-quantitative measurements of viral load, although interpretation of diagnostic qRT-PCR results are often categorized as positive, indeterminate, or negative, obscuring potentially useful clinical interpretation of CT values. From 2008 to 2010, naso/oropharyngeal swabs were collected from outpatients with influenza-like illness, inpatients with severe respiratory illness, and asymptomatic controls in rural Kenya. CT values of positive specimens (i.e., CT values < 40.0) were compared by clinical severity category for five viruses using Mann-Whitney U-test and logistic regression. Among children <5 years old we tested with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), inpatients had lower median CT values (27.2) than controls (35.8, P = 0.008) and outpatients (34.7, P < 0.001). Among children and older patients infected with influenza virus, outpatients had the lowest median CT values (29.8 and 24.1, respectively) compared with controls (P = 0.193 for children, P < 0.001 for older participants) and inpatients (P = 0.009 for children, P < 0.001 for older participants). All differences remained significant in logistic regression when controlling for age, days since onset, and coinfection. CT values were similar for adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, and parainfluenza virus in all severity groups. In conclusion, the CT values from the qRT-PCR of upper respiratory tract specimens were associated with clinical severity for some respiratory viruses.

Sequential Rift Valley fever outbreaks in eastern Africa caused by multiple lineages of the virus.

BACKGROUND: During the Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic of 2006-2007 in eastern Africa, spatial mapping of the outbreaks across Kenya, Somalia, and Tanzania was performed and the RVF viruses were isolated and genetically characterized. METHODS: Following confirmation of the RVF epidemic in Kenya on 19 December 2006 and in Tanzania on 2 February 2007, teams were sent to the field for case finding. Human, livestock, and mosquito specimens were collected and viruses isolated. The World Health Organization response team in Kenya worked with the WHO's polio surveillance team inside Somalia to collect information and specimens from Somalia. RESULTS: Seven geographical foci that reported hundreds of livestock and >25 cases in humans between December 2006 and June 2007 were identified. The onset of RVF cases in each epidemic focus was preceded by heavy rainfall and flooding for at least 10 days. Full-length genome analysis of 16 RVF virus isolates recovered from humans, livestock, and mosquitoes in 5 of the 7 outbreak foci revealed 3 distinct lineages of the viruses within and across outbreak foci. CONCLUSION: The findings indicate that the sequential RVF epidemics in the region were caused by multiple lineages of the RVF virus, sometimes independently activated or introduced in distinct outbreak foci.

Seroprevalence of Infections with Dengue, Rift Valley Fever and Chikungunya Viruses in Kenya, 2007.

Arthropod-borne viruses are a major constituent of emerging infectious diseases worldwide, but limited data are available on the prevalence, distribution, and risk factors for transmission in Kenya and East Africa. In this study, we used 1,091 HIV-negative blood specimens from the 2007 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS 2007) to test for the presence of IgG antibodies to dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV).The KAIS 2007 was a national population-based survey conducted by the Government of Kenya to provide comprehensive information needed to address the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Antibody testing for arboviruses was performed on stored blood specimens from KAIS 2007 through a two-step sandwich IgG ELISA using either commercially available kits or CDC-developed assays. Out of the 1,091 samples tested, 210 (19.2%) were positive for IgG antibodies against at least one of the three arboviruses. DENV was the most common of the three viruses tested (12.5% positive), followed by RVFV and CHIKV (4.5% and 0.97%, respectively). For DENV and RVFV, the participant's province of residence was significantly associated (P≤.01) with seropositivity. Seroprevalence of DENV and RVFV increased with age, while there was no correlation between province of residence/age and seropositivity for CHIKV. Females had twelve times higher odds of exposure to CHIK as opposed to DENV and RVFV where both males and females had the same odds of exposure. Lack of education was significantly associated with a higher odds of previous infection with either DENV or RVFV (p <0.01). These data show that a number of people are at risk of arbovirus infections depending on their geographic location in Kenya and transmission of these pathogens is greater than previously appreciated. This poses a public health risk, especially for DENV.

Viral and bacterial causes of severe acute respiratory illness among children aged less than 5 years in a high malaria prevalence area of western Kenya, 2007-2010.

BACKGROUND: Few comprehensive data exist on the etiology of severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) among African children. METHODS: From March 1, 2007 to February 28, 2010, we collected blood for culture and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs for real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction for 10 viruses and 3 atypical bacteria among children aged <5 years with SARI, defined as World Health Organization-classified severe or very severe pneumonia or oxygen saturation <90%, who visited a clinic in rural western Kenya. We collected swabs from controls without febrile or respiratory symptoms. We calculated odds ratios for infection among cases, adjusting for age and season in logistic regression. We calculated SARI incidence, adjusting for healthcare seeking for SARI in the community. RESULTS: Two thousand nine hundred seventy-three SARI cases were identified (54% inpatient, 46% outpatient), yielding an adjusted incidence of 56 cases per 100 person-years. A pathogen was detected in 3.3% of noncontaminated blood cultures; non-typhi Salmonella (1.9%) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (0.7%) predominated. A pathogen was detected in 84% of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal specimens, the most common being rhino/enterovirus (50%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, 22%), adenovirus (16%) and influenza viruses (8%). Only RSV and influenza viruses were found more commonly among cases than controls (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval: 1.3-6.7 and odds ratio 4.8, 95% confidence interval: 1.1-21, respectively). Incidence of RSV, influenza viruses and S. pneumoniae were 7.1, 5.8 and 0.04 cases per 100 person-years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among Kenyan children with SARI, RSV and influenza virus are the most likely viral causes and pneumococcus the most likely bacterial cause. Contemporaneous controls are important for interpreting upper respiratory tract specimens.

Etiology and Incidence of viral and bacterial acute respiratory illness among older children and adults in rural western Kenya, 2007-2010.

BACKGROUND: Few comprehensive data exist on disease incidence for specific etiologies of acute respiratory illness (ARI) in older children and adults in Africa. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From March 1, 2007, to February 28, 2010, among a surveillance population of 21,420 persons >5 years old in rural western Kenya, we collected blood for culture and malaria smears, nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs for quantitative real-time PCR for ten viruses and three atypical bacteria, and urine for pneumococcal antigen testing on outpatients and inpatients meeting a ARI case definition (cough or difficulty breathing or chest pain and temperature >38.0 °C or oxygen saturation <90% or hospitalization). We also collected swabs from asymptomatic controls, from which we calculated pathogen-attributable fractions, adjusting for age, season, and HIV-status, in logistic regression. We calculated incidence by pathogen, adjusting for health-seeking for ARI and pathogen-attributable fractions. Among 3,406 ARI patients >5 years old (adjusted annual incidence 12.0 per 100 person-years), influenza A virus was the most common virus (22% overall; 11% inpatients, 27% outpatients) and Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most common bacteria (16% overall; 23% inpatients, 14% outpatients), yielding annual incidences of 2.6 and 1.7 episodes per 100 person-years, respectively. Influenza A virus, influenza B virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human metapneumovirus were more prevalent in swabs among cases (22%, 6%, 8% and 5%, respectively) than controls. Adenovirus, parainfluenza viruses, rhinovirus/enterovirus, parechovirus, and Mycoplasma pneumoniae were not more prevalent among cases than controls. Pneumococcus and non-typhi Salmonella were more prevalent among HIV-infected adults, but prevalence of viruses was similar among HIV-infected and HIV-negative individuals. ARI incidence was highest during peak malaria season. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Vaccination against influenza and pneumococcus (by potential herd immunity from childhood vaccination or of HIV-infected adults) might prevent much of the substantial ARI incidence among persons >5 years old in similar rural African settings.