Same-day discharge among patients undergoing elective PCI: Insights from the VA CART Program.

BACKGROUND: Available data suggest that same-day discharge (SDD) after elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is safe in select patients. Yet, little is known about contemporary adoption rates, safety, and costs in a universal health care system like the Veterans Affairs Health System. METHODS: Using data from the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment Reporting and Tracking Program linked with Health Economics Resource Center data, patients undergoing elective PCI for stable angina between October 1, 2007 and Sepetember 30, 2016, were stratified by SDD versus overnight stay. We examined trends of SDD, and using 2:1 propensity matching, we assessed 30-day rates of readmission, mortality, and total costs at 30 days. RESULTS: Of 21,261 PCIs from 67 sites, 728 were SDDs (3.9% of overall cohort). The rate of SDD increased from 1.6% in 2008 to 9.7% in 2016 (P < .001). SDD patients had lower rates of atrial fibrillation, peripheral arterial disease, and prior coronary artery bypass grafting and were treated at higher-volume centers. Thirty-day readmission and mortality did not differ significantly between the groups (readmission: 6.7% SDD vs 5.6% for overnight stay, P = .24; mortality: 0% vs. 0.07%, P = .99). The mean (SD) 30-day cost accrued by patients undergoing SDD was $23,656 ($15,480) versus $25,878 ($17,480) for an overnight stay. The accumulated median cost savings for SDD was $1503 (95% CI $738-$2,250). CONCLUSIONS: Veterans Affairs Health System has increasingly adopted SDD for elective PCI procedures, and this is associated with cost savings without an increase in readmission or mortality. Greater adoption has the potential to reduce costs without increasing adverse outcomes.

Incidence, procedural management, and clinical outcomes of coronary in-stent restenosis: Insights from the National VA CART Program.

BACKROUND: In-stent restenosis (ISR) remains a common clinical problem associated with significant morbidity. We sought to evaluate the temporal trends in incidence and procedural management of coronary restenosis as well as evaluate the association between different treatment modalities and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We identified all patients treated for coronary ISR within the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System from October 1, 2006 to September 30, 2014. The temporal trends in incidence as well as intraprocedural management were assessed. Among patients treated for single vessel restenosis, a propensity matched cohort was created for those treated with drug-eluting stents (DES) or other treatment modalities. Target vessel revascularization (TVR) and mortality were compared between the two subpopulations. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2014, 65,443 patients underwent percutaneous coronary intervention and 6,872 patients (10.5%) with 8,921 lesions were treated for ISR. The proportion of patients undergoing revascularization for restenosis increased 0.28% per year (P = 0.055). Among a propensity-matched cohort of 6,231, the rates of TVR (subdistribution HR: 0.623, 95% CI: 0.511-0.760) and mortality (HR: 0.730, 95% CI: 0.641-0.830) were significantly lower among patients treated with a DES compared with other treatments. After adjustment for known risk factors, treatment with DES continued to be associated with a reduction in mortality rate (Adjusted HR: 0.802, 95% CI: 0.704-0.913). CONCLUSIONS: There is a trend toward an increasing proportion of coronary interventions for ISR in a national cohort of Veterans and treatment with a DES is associated with the lowest rate of TVR and overall mortality.

Facility-Level Variation in Hospitalization, Mortality, and Costs in the 30 Days After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Insights on Short-Term Healthcare Value From the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking System (VA CART) Program.

BACKGROUND: Policies to reduce unnecessary hospitalizations after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are intended to improve healthcare value by reducing costs while maintaining patient outcomes. Whether facility-level hospitalization rates after PCI are associated with cost of care is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 32,080 patients who received PCI at any 1 of 62 Veterans Affairs hospitals from 2008 to 2011. We identified facility outliers for 30-day risk-standardized hospitalization, mortality, and cost. Compared with the risk-standardized average, 2 hospitals (3.2%) had a lower-than-expected hospitalization rate, and 2 hospitals (3.2%) had a higher-than-expected hospitalization rate. We observed no statistically significant variation in facility-level risk-standardized mortality. The facility-level unadjusted median per patient 30-day total cost was $23,820 (interquartile range, $19,604-$29,958). Compared with the risk-standardized average, 17 hospitals (27.4%) had lower-than-expected costs, and 14 hospitals (22.6%) had higher-than-expected costs. At the facility level, the index PCI accounted for 83.1% of the total cost (range, 60.3%-92.2%), whereas hospitalization after PCI accounted for only 5.8% (range, 2.0%-12.7%) of the 30-day total cost. Facilities with higher hospitalization rates were not more expensive (Spearman ρ=0.16; 95% confidence interval, -0.09 to 0.39; P=0.21). CONCLUSIONS: In this national study, hospitalizations in the 30 day after PCI accounted for only 5.8% of 30-day cost, and facility-level cost was not correlated with hospitalization rates. This challenges the focus on reducing hospitalizations after PCI as an effective means of improving healthcare value. Opportunities remain to improve PCI value by reducing the variation in total cost of PCI without compromising patient outcomes.

Clopidogrel prescription filling delays and cardiovascular outcomes in a pharmacy system integrating inpatient and outpatient care: insights from the Veterans Affairs CART Program.

BACKGROUND: Delays in filling clopidogrel prescriptions after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have been demonstrated previously and associated with adverse outcomes. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 11,418 patients undergoing PCI with stent placement in Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals between January 1, 2005, and September 30, 2010. Data were obtained from the national VA Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking Program, including post-PCI clopidogrel prescription fill date and outcomes of myocardial infarction and death within 90 days of discharge. Patients who did not fill a clopidogrel prescription on the day of discharge were considered to have a delay. Multivariable models assessed the association between clopidogrel delay and myocardial infarction/death using clopidogrel delay as a time-varying covariate. RESULTS: Of the patients, 7.2% had a delay in filling their clopidogrel prescription. Delay in filling clopidogrel was associated with increased risk of major adverse events (hazard ratio 2.34, 95% CI 1.66-3.29, P < .001). The percentage of patients who delayed filling varied by hospital, ranging from 0 to 43.5% with a median of 6.2% (P < .001, χ(2) for difference across hospitals) and a median odds ratio of 2.13 (95% CI 1.85-2.68) suggesting large site variation in clopidogrel delay across hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: In a health care system with integrated inpatient and outpatient pharmacy services, 1 in 14 patients delays filling a clopidogrel prescription. The large site variation suggests a need to identify best practices that allow hospitals to optimize prescription filling at discharge to potentially improve patient outcomes.

Association of testosterone therapy with mortality, myocardial infarction, and stroke in men with low testosterone levels.

IMPORTANCE: Rates of testosterone therapy are increasing and the effects of testosterone therapy on cardiovascular outcomes and mortality are unknown. A recent randomized clinical trial of testosterone therapy in men with a high prevalence of cardiovascular diseases was stopped prematurely due to adverse cardiovascular events raising concerns about testosterone therapy safety. OBJECTIVES: To assess the association between testosterone therapy and all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke among male veterans and to determine whether this association is modified by underlying coronary artery disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: A retrospective national cohort study of men with low testosterone levels (<300 ng/dL) who underwent coronary angiography in the Veterans Affairs (VA) system between 2005 and 2011. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality, MI, and ischemic stroke. RESULTS: Of the 8709 men with a total testosterone level lower than 300 ng/dL, 1223 patients started testosterone therapy after a median of 531 days following coronary angiography. Of the 1710 outcome events, 748 men died, 443 had MIs, and 519 had strokes. Of 7486 patients not receiving testosterone therapy, 681 died, 420 had MIs, and 486 had strokes. Among 1223 patients receiving testosterone therapy, 67 died, 23 had MIs, and 33 had strokes. At 3 years after coronary angiography, the Kaplan-Meier estimated cumulative percentages with events were 19.9%in the no testosterone therapy group vs 25.7%in the testosterone therapy group,with an absolute risk difference of 5.8%(95%CI, -1.4%to 13.1%) [corrected].The Kaplan-Meier estimated cumulative percentages with events among the no testosterone therapy group vs testosterone therapy group at 1 year after coronary angiography were 10.1% vs 11.3%; at 2 years, 15.4% vs 18.5%; and at 3 years, 19.9% vs 25.7 [corrected].There was no significant difference in the effect size of testosterone therapy among those with and without coronary artery disease (test for interaction, P = .41). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among a cohort of men in the VA health care system who underwent coronary angiography and had a low serum testosterone level, the use of testosterone therapy was associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes. These findings may inform the discussion about the potential risks of testosterone therapy.

Impact of Operator Volumes and Experience on Outcomes After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Insights From the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting and Tracking (CART) Program.

BACKGROUND: Recent analyses of the volume-outcome relationship for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have suggested a less robust association than previously reported. It is unknown if novel factors such as lifetime operator experience influence this relationship. OBJECTIVES: To assess the relationship between annual volumes and outcomes for PCI and determine whether lifetime operator experience modulates the association. METHODS: Annual PCI volumes for facilities and operators within the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System and their relationship with 30-day mortality following PCI were described. The influence of operator lifetime experience on the volume-outcome relationship was assessed. Hierarchical logistic regression was used to adjust for patient and procedural factors. RESULTS: 57,608 PCIs performed from 2013 to 2018 by 382 operators and 63 institutions were analyzed. Operator annualized PCI volume averaged 47.6 (standard deviation [SD] 49.1) and site annualized volume averaged 189.2 (SD 105.2). Median operator experience was 9.0 years (interquartile range [IQR] 4.0-15.0). There was no independent relationship between operator annual volume, institutional volume, or operator lifetime experience with 30-day mortality (p > 0.10). However, the interaction between operator volume and lifetime experience was associated with a marginal decrease in mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.9998, 95% CI 0.9996-0.9999). CONCLUSIONS: There were no significant associations between facility or operator-level procedural volume and 30-day mortality following PCI in a nationally integrated healthcare system. There was a marginal association between the interaction of operator lifetime experience, operator annual volume, and 30-day mortality that is unlikely to be clinically relevant, though does suggest an opportunity to explore novel factors that may influence the volume-outcome relationship.

Multifaceted Intervention to Improve P2Y12 Inhibitor Adherence After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Stepped Wedge Trial.

Background P2Y12 inhibitor medications are critical following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); however, adherence remains suboptimal. Our objective was to assess the effectiveness of a multifaceted intervention to improve P2Y12 inhibitor adherence following PCI. Methods and Results This was a modified stepped wedge trial of 52 eligible hospitals, of which 15 were randomly selected and agreed to participate (29 hospitals declined, and 8 eligible hospitals were not contacted). At each intervention hospital, patient recruitment occurred for 6 months and enrolled patients were followed up for 1 year after PCI. Three control groups were used: patients at intervention hospitals undergoing PCI (1) before the intervention period (preintervention); (2) after the intervention period (postintervention); or (3) at the 8 hospitals not contacted (concurrent controls). The intervention consisted of 4 components: (1) P2Y12 inhibitor delivered to patients' bedside after PCI; (2) education on importance of P2Y12 inhibitors; (3) automated reminder telephone calls to refill medication; and (4) outreach to patients if they delayed refilling P2Y12 inhibitor. The primary outcomes were as follows: (1) proportion of patients with delays filling P2Y12 inhibitor at hospital discharge and (2) proportion of patients who were adherent in the year after PCI using pharmacy refill data. Primary analysis compared intervention with preintervention control patients. There were 1377 (intent-to-treat) potentially eligible patients, of whom 803 (per protocol) were approached at intervention sites versus 5910 preintervention, 2807 postintervention, and 4736 concurrent control patients. In the intent-to-treat analysis, intervention patients were less likely to delay filling P2Y12 at hospital discharge (-3.4%; 98.3% CI, -1.2% to -5.6%) and more likely to be adherent to P2Y12 (4.1%; 98.3% CI, 1.0%-7.1%) at 1 year, but had more clinical events (3.2%; 98.3% CI, 2.3%-4.1%) driven by repeated PCI compared with preintervention patients. In post hoc analysis looking at myocardial infarction, stroke, and death, intervention patients had lower event rates compared with preintervention patients (-1.7%; 98.3% CI, -2.3% to -1.1%). Conclusions A 4-component intervention targeting P2Y12 inhibitor adherence was difficult to implement. The intervention produced mixed results. It improved P2Y12 adherence, but there was also an increase in repeat PCI. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01609842.

The role of 3-dimensional mapping biopsy in decision making for treatment of apparent early stage prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: We determined the impact of a grid based, transperineal 3-dimensional mapping biopsy on decision making for primary management of early stage prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We prospectively performed 3-dimensional mapping biopsy on 180 consecutive men who presented to our clinic between 2006 and 2009 with early stage, organ confined prostate cancer based on transrectal ultrasound guided 10 to 12-core biopsy, and on 35 with prior negative transrectal ultrasound biopsies. RESULTS: At presentation median patient age was 60.5 years (range 43 to 77), median prostate specific antigen was 4.8 ng/ml (range 0.5 to 72.4) and median prostate volume was 35 cc (range 9 to 95). The median number of cores acquired by transrectal ultrasound and 3-dimensional mapping biopsy was 12 and 56, and the median number of positive cores was 1 and 2, respectively. We documented Gleason score upgrade in 49 of 180 cases (27.2%) and up-stage in 82 (45.6%). The incidence of urinary retention catheter requirement of greater than 48 hours was 3.2% and the incidence of transient orthostatic hypotension was 5%. No urinary tract infections were documented. A total of 38 men received radical extirpative therapy, 11 radiation and 45 cryotherapy while 60 enrolled in a targeted focal therapy study, 44 entered active surveillance and 5 underwent other focal investigational treatments. Post-mapping data on 12 men were not available for analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Three-dimensional mapping biopsy revealed that a significant portion of men initially diagnosed with apparently low risk disease harbored clinically significant cancers requiring more aggressive therapy. The technique also enabled a number of men with low risk disease to elect surveillance or another less morbid option.

Methods of developing UWIN, the modified American Urological Association symptom score.

PURPOSE: The American Urological Association symptom score instrument is widely used to assess lower urinary tract symptom severity in men. We describe the methods used to develop a shorter form of the American Urological Association symptom score that may provide symptom score assessment with minimal compromise in accuracy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Complete American Urological Association symptom score data were collected on 8,731 men who attended Prostate Cancer Awareness Week in 2003 or 2004. Correlation analysis and area under the ROCs were used to determine the best reduced index and cutoff points in scores for the severity categories of mild, moderate and severe. RESULTS: The number of responses in the original 7 American Urological Association symptom score items was lowered from 6 to 4 and for the bothersome index it was lowered from 7 to 3. Four of the original 7 items were retained. Cronbach's α was 0.851 for the symptom score items in our data. The combination of items with the best joint correlation to the American Urological Association symptom score and bothersome score was UWIN (urgency, weak stream, incomplete emptying and nocturia). The correlation of UWIN with the American Urological Association symptom score was 0.938. The correlation of UWIN bother to the American Urological Association bothersome score was 0.638. The ROC for the mild, moderate and severe UWIN categories compared to the categorized American Urological Association symptom score was 0.96, 0.97 and 0.99, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The UWIN instrument may potentially be a valuable tool to assess American Urological Association symptom score severity and bother. Clinical validation of this instrument is indicated in a prospective comparative study.

Validation of the modified American Urological Association symptom score.

PURPOSE: We created a shorter version of the American Urological Association symptom score, called UWIN (urgency, weak stream, incomplete emptying and nocturia). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Participants in Prostate Cancer Awareness Week from 2006 and 2007 were administered the regular American Urological Association symptom score and UWIN. A total of 278 participants completed each questionnaire. Total scores of each participant for the American Urological Association symptom score (range 0 to 35) and UWIN (range 0 to 12) were evaluated using Spearman's correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots to determine the level of agreement between the 2 questionnaires. RESULTS: The correlation between the total American Urological Association symptom score (range 0 to 35) and the total UWIN score (range 0 to 12) was 0.913 (p<0.0001). The correlation between the quality of life question on the American Urological Association symptom score and UWIN was 0.821 using the Spearman correlation coefficient (p<0.0001). A second analysis performed using Bland-Altman plots showed good agreement between the American Urological Association symptom score and UWIN. Overall, respondents tended to have slightly higher UWIN total scores than their American Urological Association symptom scores. CONCLUSIONS: This study validates that the UWIN questionnaire can be used in place of the American Urological Association symptom score. The UWIN questionnaire will lessen the burden on the respondent, broaden the applicability of the instrument and make collecting data as efficient and effective as possible.

The number of elevated cytokines and chemokines in preclinical seropositive rheumatoid arthritis predicts time to diagnosis in an age-dependent manner.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate levels of biomarkers in preclinical rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and to use elevated biomarkers to develop a model for the prediction of time to future diagnosis of seropositive RA. METHODS: Stored samples obtained from 73 military cases with seropositive RA prior to RA diagnosis and from controls (mean 2.9 samples per case; samples collected a mean of 6.6 years prior to diagnosis) were tested for rheumatoid factor (RF) isotypes, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibodies, 14 cytokines and chemokines (by bead-based assay), and C-reactive protein (CRP). RESULTS: Preclinical positivity for anti-CCP and/or ≥2 RF isotypes was >96% specific for future RA. In preclinical RA, levels of the following were positive in a significantly greater proportion of RA cases versus controls: interleukin-1α (IL-1α), IL-1ß, IL-6, IL-10, IL-12p40, IL-12p70, IL-15, fibroblast growth factor 2, flt-3 ligand, tumor necrosis factor α, interferon-γ-inducible 10-kd protein, granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor, and CRP. Also, increasing numbers of elevated cytokines/chemokines were present in cases nearer to the time of diagnosis. RA patients who were ≥40 years old at diagnosis had a higher proportion of samples positive for cytokines/chemokines 5-10 years prior to diagnosis than did patients who were <40 years old at diagnosis (P < 0.01). In regression modeling using only case samples positive for autoantibodies highly specific for future RA, increasing numbers of cytokines/chemokines were predictive of decreased time to diagnosis, and the predicted time to diagnosis based on cytokines/chemokines was longer in older compared with younger cases. CONCLUSION: Levels of autoantibodies, cytokines/chemokines, and CRP are elevated in the preclinical period of RA development. In preclinical autoantibody-positive cases, the number of elevated cytokines/chemokines is predictive of the time of diagnosis of future RA in an age-dependent manner.

Autoimmunity to peptidyl arginine deiminase type 4 precedes clinical onset of rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether antibodies against peptidyl arginine deiminase type 4 (PAD-4) are present in the preclinical phase of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and to compare the timing and extent of their appearance with those of other preclinical autoantibodies. METHODS: Prediagnosis serum samples from 83 patients with RA were evaluated for the presence of anti-PAD-4 antibody, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibody, and rheumatoid factor. In addition, a control cohort (n = 83) matched by age, sex, race, number of serum samples, and duration of serum storage was tested for the presence of anti-PAD-4 antibody to determine its sensitivity and specificity for the subsequent development of RA. RESULTS: Fifteen of 83 patients with RA (18.1%) had at least 1 prediagnosis sample positive for anti-PAD-4. One of 83 control subjects (1.2%) had at least 1 positive sample, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of 18.1% and 98.8%, respectively, of anti-PAD-4 for the future development of RA. The mean duration of anti-PAD-4 positivity prior to clinical diagnosis was 4.67 years. Anti-PAD-4 positivity was associated with anti-CCP positivity (odds ratio 5.13 [95% confidence interval 1.07-24.5]). In subjects with prediagnosis samples that were positive for both antibodies, anti-CCP positivity predated anti-PAD-4 positivity in 9 of 13 cases (69%). CONCLUSION: Autoantibodies to PAD-4 are present during the preclinical phase of RA in a subset of patients and are associated with anti-CCP positivity. Further exploration is needed regarding the timing of appearance and disease-related effects of PAD-4 autoimmunity.

Aberrant IgG galactosylation precedes disease onset, correlates with disease activity, and is prevalent in autoantibodies in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between aberrant IgG galactosylation and disease parameters in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: Analysis of N-glycan in serum samples from multiple cohorts was performed. The IgG N-glycan content and the timing of N-glycan aberrancy relative to disease onset were compared in healthy subjects and in patients with RA. Correlations between aberrant galactosylation and disease activity were assessed in the RA cohorts. The impact of disease activity, sex, age, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibody titer, disease duration, and C-reactive protein level on aberrant galactosylation was determined using multivariate analysis. The N-glycan content was also compared between epitope affinity-purified autoantibodies and the remaining IgG repertoire in RA patients. RESULTS: Our results confirm the aberrant galactosylation of IgG in RA patients as compared with healthy controls (mean +/- SD 1.36 +/- 0.43 versus 1.01 +/- 0.23; P < 0.0001). We observed a significant correlation between levels of aberrant IgG galactosylation and disease activity (Spearman's rho = 0.37, P < 0.0001). This correlation was higher in women (Spearman's rho = 0.60, P < 0.0001) than in men (Spearman's rho = 0.16, P = 0.10). Further, aberrant IgG galactosylation substantially predated the onset of arthritis and the diagnosis of RA (3.5 years) and resided selectively in the anticitrullinated antigen fraction. CONCLUSION: Our findings identify aberrant IgG galactosylation as a dysregulated component of the humoral immune response in RA that begins prior to disease onset, associates with disease activity in a sex-specific manner, and resides preferentially in autoantibodies.

Development and Implementation of an In-Hospital Bleeding Risk Model for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

BACKGROUND: Bleeding is a common complication of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) that is associated with worse clinical outcomes and increased costs. Improved pre-procedural bleeding risk prediction could promote strategies that have been shown to reduce post-PCI bleeding, including increased adoption of radial access. METHODS: We studied patients in the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking (VA CART) program receiving PCI in VA hospitals. Logistic regression was performed to develop a model for major in-hospital bleeding using demographic, clinical, and procedural variables. The discriminatory ability of the model was compared to the existing National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) CathPCI bleeding risk model. RESULTS: Among 107,451 patients treated from 2008 to 2019, 5218 (4.86%) experienced an in-hospital bleeding event. Twelve variables were associated with bleeding risk. Predictors of bleeding included emergency or salvage status, cardiogenic shock, NSTEMI, Atrial fibrillation, elevated INR, and peripheral vascular disease, while radial access, greater body surface area, and stable or unstable angina were associated with lower risk of bleeding. The developed model had superior discrimination compared with the NCDR CathPCI model (c-index 0.756, 95% CI 0.749-0.764 vs. 0.707, 95% CI 0.700-0.714, p < 0.001), especially among the highest risk patients. A web-based tool has been created to facilitate calculation of bleeding risk using this model at the point of care. CONCLUSION: The VA CART bleeding risk model uses baseline clinical and procedural variables to predict post-PCI in-hospital bleeding events and has improved discrimination compared to other available models in this patient population. Implementation of this model can facilitate risk stratification at the point of care and permit improved risk-adjustment for quality assessment.

Contemporary Clinical and Coronary Anatomic Risk Model for 30-Day Mortality After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures are increasing in clinical and anatomic complexity, likely increasing the calculated risk of mortality. There is need for a real-time risk prediction tool that includes clinical and coronary anatomic information that is integrated into the electronic medical record system. METHODS: We assessed 70 503 PCIs performed in 73 Veterans Affairs hospitals from 2008 to 2019. We used regression and machine-learning strategies to develop a prediction model for 30-day mortality following PCI. We assessed model performance with and without inclusion of the Veterans Affairs SYNTAX score (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery), an assessment of anatomic complexity. Finally, the discriminatory ability of the Veterans Affairs model was compared with the CathPCI mortality model. RESULTS: The overall 30-day morality rate was 1.7%. The final model included 14 variables. Presentation status (salvage, emergent, urgent), ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, cardiogenic shock, age, congestive heart failure, prior valve disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic lung disease, atrial fibrillation, elevated international normalized ratio, and the Veterans Affairs SYNTAX score were all associated with increased risk of death, while increasing body mass index, hemoglobin level, and prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with lower risk of death. C-index for the development cohort was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.94) and for the 2019 validation cohort and the site validation cohort was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.92) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.83-0.89), respectively. The positive likelihood ratio of predicting a mortality event in the top decile was 2.87% more accurate than the CathPCI mortality model. Inclusion of anatomic information in the model resulted in significant improvement in model performance (likelihood ratio test P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This contemporary risk model accurately predicts 30-day post-PCI mortality using a combination of clinical and anatomic variables. This can be immediately implemented into clinical practice to promote personalized informed consent discussions and appropriate preparation for high-risk PCI cases.

Comparison of Patients With Nonobstructive Coronary Artery Disease With Versus Without Myocardial Infarction (from the VA Clinical Assessment Reporting and Tracking [CART] Program).

Comparisons of the outcomes of patients with myocardial infarction with nonobstructive coronary artery disease (MINOCA) and patients with nonobstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) without myocardial infarction (MI) are limited. Here we compare the outcomes of patients with MINOCA and patients with nonobstructive CAD without MI and assess the influence of medical therapy on outcomes in these patients. Veterans who underwent coronary angiography between 2008 to 2017 with nonobstructive CAD were divided into those with or without pre-procedural troponin elevation. Patients with prior revascularization, heart failure, or who presented with cardiogenic shock, STEMI, or unstable angina were excluded. After propensity matching, outcomes were compared between groups. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: mortality, myocardial infarction, and revascularization) within one year: 3,924 patients with nonobstructive CAD and a troponin obtained prior to angiography were identified (n=1,986 with elevated troponin) and restricted to 1,904 patients after propensity-matching. There was a significantly higher risk of MACE among troponin-positive patients compared with those with a negative troponin (HR 2.37; 95% CI, 1.67 to 3.34). Statin (HR 0.32; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.49) and ACE inhibitor (HR 0.49; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.75) therapy after angiography was associated with decreased MACE, while P2Y12 inhibitor, calcium-channel and beta-blocker therapy were not associated with outcomes. In conclusion, Veterans with MINOCA are at increased risk for MACE compared with those with nonobstructive CAD and negative troponin at the time of angiography. Specific medications were associated with a reduction in MACE, suggesting an opportunity to explore novel approaches for secondary prevention in this population.

A likelihood model that accounts for censoring due to fetal loss can accurately test the effects of maternal and fetal genotype on the probability of miscarriage.

OBJECTIVE: Heritable maternal and fetal thrombophilia and/or hypofibrinolysis are important causes of miscarriage. Under the constraint that fetal genotype is observed only after a live birth, estimating risk is complicated. Censoring prevents use of published statistical methodology. We propose techniques to determine whether increases in miscarriage are due to the fetal genotype, maternal genotype, or both. METHODS: We propose a study to estimate the risk of miscarriage contributed by an allele, expressed in either dominant or recessive fashion. Using a multinomial likelihood, we derive maximum likelihood estimates of risk for different genotype groups. We describe likelihood ratio tests and a planned hypothesis testing strategy. RESULTS: Parameter estimation is accurate (bias <0.0011, root mean squared error <0.0780, n = 500). We used simulation to estimate power for studies of three gene mutations: the 4G hypofibrinolytic mutation in the plasminogen activator inhibitor gene (PAI-1), the prothrombin G20210A mutation, and the Factor V Leiden mutation. With 500 families, our methods have approximately 90% power to detect an increase in the miscarriage rate of 0.2, above a background rate of 0.2. CONCLUSION: Our statistical method can determine whether increases in miscarriage are due to fetal genotype, maternal genotype, or both despite censoring.

The Impact of Performing a 3D Mapping Biopsy Prior to Primary Cryotherapy for the Treatment of Prostate Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To study the implications of adding a 3D mapping biopsy (3DMB) prior to prostate cryotherapy (PCT) for the treatment of prostate cancer on the following outcomes: recurrence and biochemical failure (BCF), quality of life outcomes, and complication rates. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of patients treated with either targeted focal therapy, or subtotal CT for localized prostate cancer was performed. The cohort was stratified by patients who had only had a transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy (TRUS) and those who had undergone 1 additional 3DMB before definitive treatment. Pre- and postprocedural Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and Sexual Health Inventory for Men (SHIM) surveys were collected. BCF was defined using the Phoenix criteria. Patients with BCF were re-biopsied. Differences in pre/post changes in IPSS and SHIM scores were examined with Mann-Whitney U tests, binary measures with chi-square tests, and pre/post changes in PSA with t tests. A Kaplan-Meier time to BCF and recurrence analysis is presented. RESULTS: A total of 534 patients underwent PCT following TRUS only (n = 331) and TRUS with subsequent 3DMB (n = 203) between March 2007 and June 2016. No differences were observed in IPSS (P = .60) or SHIM scores drop (P = .06) between groups. PSA drop seemed more pronounced in the TRUS only biopsy group compared to the 3DMB, but again without statistical significance (P = .06). Recurrence rate and BCF were lower in the 3DMB group (P <.01). There was a higher rate of short-term complications detected in the TRUS only group (P = .02). CONCLUSION: BCF and local recurrence rates were lower among patients who underwent a confirmatory 3DMB before PCT, most likely due to better risk stratification in these patients. The addition of a 3DMB did not seem to adversely impact either rate of complications or functional outcomes.