Community Occupational Therapy for people with dementia and family carers (COTiD-UK) versus treatment as usual (Valuing Active Life in Dementia [VALID]) study: A single-blind, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate the clinical effectiveness of Community Occupational Therapy for people with dementia and family carers-UK version (Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia-UK version [COTiD-UK]) relative to treatment as usual (TAU). We hypothesised that COTiD-UK would improve the ability of people with dementia to perform activities of daily living (ADL), and family carers' sense of competence, compared with TAU. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study design was a multicentre, 2-arm, parallel-group, assessor-masked, individually randomised controlled trial (RCT) with internal pilot. It was conducted in 15 sites across England from September 2014 to January 2018. People with a diagnosis of mild to moderate dementia living in their own home were recruited in pairs with a family carer who provided domestic or personal support for at least 4 hours per week. Pairs were randomised to either receive COTiD-UK, which comprised 10 hours of occupational therapy delivered over 10 weeks in the person with dementia's home or TAU, which comprised the usual local service provision that may or may not include standard occupational therapy. The primary outcome was the Bristol Activities of Daily Living Scale (BADLS) score at 26 weeks. Secondary outcomes for the person with dementia included the following: the BADLS scores at 52 and 78 weeks, cognition, quality of life, and mood; and for the family carer: sense of competence and mood; plus the number of social contacts and leisure activities for both partners. Participants were analysed by treatment allocated. A total of 468 pairs were recruited: people with dementia ranged from 55 to 97 years with a mean age of 78.6 and family carers ranged from 29 to 94 with a mean of 69.1 years. Of the people with dementia, 74.8% were married and 19.2% lived alone. Of the family carers, 72.6% were spouses, and 22.2% were adult children. On randomisation, 249 pairs were assigned to COTiD-UK (62% people with dementia and 23% carers were male) and 219 to TAU (52% people with dementia and 32% carers were male). At the 26 weeks follow-up, data were available for 364 pairs (77.8%). The BADLS score at 26 weeks did not differ significantly between groups (adjusted mean difference estimate 0.35, 95% CI -0.81 to 1.51; p = 0.55). Secondary outcomes did not differ between the groups. In total, 91% of the activity-based goals set by the pairs taking part in the COTiD-UK intervention were fully or partially achieved by the final COTiD-UK session. Study limitations include the following: Intervention fidelity was moderate but varied across and within sites, and the reliance on primarily proxy data focused on measuring the level of functional or cognitive impairment which may not truly reflect the actual performance and views of the person living with dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Providing community occupational therapy as delivered in this study did not improve ADL performance, cognition, quality of life, or mood in people with dementia nor sense of competence or mood in family carers. Future research should consider measuring person-centred outcomes that are more meaningful and closely aligned to participants' priorities, such as goal achievement or the quantity and quality of activity engagement and participation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10748953.

Reasons for not having epilepsy surgery.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to determine reasons for adults with drug-resistant focal epilepsy who undergo presurgical evaluation not proceeding with surgery, and to identify predictors of this course. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data on 617 consecutive individuals evaluated for epilepsy surgery at a tertiary referral center between January 2015 and December 2019. We compared the characteristics of those in whom a decision not to proceed with surgical treatment was made with those who underwent definitive surgery in the same period. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of not proceeding with surgery. RESULTS: A decision not to proceed with surgery was reached in 315 (51%) of 617 individuals evaluated. Common reasons for this were an inability to localize the epileptogenic zone (n = 104) and the presence of multifocal epilepsy (n = 74). An individual choice not to proceed with intracranial electroencephalography (icEEG; n = 50) or surgery (n = 39), risk of significant deficit (n = 33), declining noninvasive investigation (n = 12), and coexisting neurological comorbidity (n = 3) accounted for the remainder. Compared to 166 surgically treated patients, those who did not proceed to surgery were more likely to have a learning disability (odds ratio [OR] = 2.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07-5.16), normal magnetic resonance imaging (OR = 4.48, 95% CI = 1.68-11.94), extratemporal epilepsy (OR = 2.93, 95% CI = 1.82-4.71), bilateral seizure onset zones (OR = 3.05, 95% CI = 1.41-6.61) and to live in more deprived socioeconomic areas (median deprivation decile = 40%-50% vs. 50%-60%, p < .05). SIGNIFICANCE: Approximately half of those evaluated for surgical treatment of drug-resistant focal epilepsy do not proceed to surgery. Early consideration and discussion of the likelihood of surgical suitability or need for icEEG may help direct referral for presurgical evaluation.

Multicenter validation of automated trajectories for selective laser amygdalohippocampectomy.

OBJECTIVE: Laser interstitial thermal therapy (LITT) is a novel minimally invasive alternative to open mesial temporal resection in drug-resistant mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE). The safety and efficacy of the procedure are dependent on the preplanned trajectory and the extent of the planned ablation achieved. Ablation of the mesial hippocampal head has been suggested to be an independent predictor of seizure freedom, whereas sparing of collateral structures is thought to result in improved neuropsychological outcomes. We aim to validate an automated trajectory planning platform against manually planned trajectories to objectively standardize the process. METHODS: Using the EpiNav platform, we compare automated trajectory planning parameters derived from expert opinion and machine learning to undertake a multicenter validation against manually planned and implemented trajectories in 95 patients with MTLE. We estimate ablation volumes of regions of interest and quantify the size of the avascular corridor through the use of a risk score as a marker of safety. We also undertake blinded external expert feasibility and preference ratings. RESULTS: Automated trajectory planning employs complex algorithms to maximize ablation of the mesial hippocampal head and amygdala, while sparing the parahippocampal gyrus. Automated trajectories resulted in significantly lower calculated risk scores and greater amygdala ablation percentage, whereas overall hippocampal ablation percentage did not differ significantly. In addition, estimated damage to collateral structures was reduced. Blinded external expert raters were significantly more likely to prefer automated to manually planned trajectories. SIGNIFICANCE: Retrospective studies of automated trajectory planning show much promise in improving safety parameters and ablation volumes during LITT for MTLE. Multicenter validation provides evidence that the algorithm is robust, and blinded external expert ratings indicate that the trajectories are clinically feasible. Prospective validation studies are now required to determine if automated trajectories translate into improved seizure freedom rates and reduced neuropsychological deficits.

Auras and the risk of seizures with impaired consciousness following epilepsy surgery: implications for driving.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate the chance of a seizure in the next year (COSY) for seizures with impaired awareness in those experiencing auras only, those with no seizures and those with continuing seizures. Epilepsy surgery is an effective treatment for refractory focal epilepsy. Driving is an important factor affecting quality of life. In the UK, driving is not permitted if focal seizures with no impairment of awareness (auras, simple partial seizures) continue, if there is a prior history of seizures with impaired awareness, as will invariably be the case in those having epilepsy surgery. Current UK driving regulations allow driving if COSY is less than 20%. METHOD: We calculated COSY in 819 epilepsy surgery patients with up to 25 years follow-up. Each patient year was graded on the The International League against Epilepsy surgery outcome scale. RESULTS: Patients who were entirely seizure-free for 1, 2 and 3 years had COSY of 4.9%, 3.5% and 2.4% respectively. Patients with only auras within the last 1, 2 or 3 years had a COSY of 11.3%, 9.2% and 7.8% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with auras only after epilepsy surgery had a higher COSY than those who were seizure-free. If a COSY of below 20% is regarded as an acceptable risk, it may be suggested that those with auras only in a given year be allowed to drive. The relative risk of these patients causing accidents is lower than population groups such as those aged <25 or >75 years, who are permitted to drive.

Assessing cognitive dysfunction in Parkinson's disease: An online tool to detect visuo-perceptual deficits.

BACKGROUND: People with Parkinson's disease (PD) who develop visuo-perceptual deficits are at higher risk of dementia, but we lack tests that detect subtle visuo-perceptual deficits and can be performed by untrained personnel. Hallucinations are associated with cognitive impairment and typically involve perception of complex objects. Changes in object perception may therefore be a sensitive marker of visuo-perceptual deficits in PD. OBJECTIVE: We developed an online platform to test visuo-perceptual function. We hypothesised that (1) visuo-perceptual deficits in PD could be detected using online tests, (2) object perception would be preferentially affected, and (3) these deficits would be caused by changes in perception rather than response bias. METHODS: We assessed 91 people with PD and 275 controls. Performance was compared using classical frequentist statistics. We then fitted a hierarchical Bayesian signal detection theory model to a subset of tasks. RESULTS: People with PD were worse than controls at object recognition, showing no deficits in other visuo-perceptual tests. Specifically, they were worse at identifying skewed images (P < .0001); at detecting hidden objects (P = .0039); at identifying objects in peripheral vision (P < .0001); and at detecting biological motion (P = .0065). In contrast, people with PD were not worse at mental rotation or subjective size perception. Using signal detection modelling, we found this effect was driven by change in perceptual sensitivity rather than response bias. CONCLUSIONS: Online tests can detect visuo-perceptual deficits in people with PD, with object recognition particularly affected. Ultimately, visuo-perceptual tests may be developed to identify at-risk patients for clinical trials to slow PD dementia. © 2018 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Automated trajectory planning for laser interstitial thermal therapy in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy.

OBJECTIVE: Surgical resection of the mesial temporal structures brings seizure remission in 65% of individuals with drug-resistant mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE). Laser interstitial thermal therapy (LiTT) is a novel therapy that may provide a minimally invasive means of ablating the mesial temporal structures with similar outcomes, while minimizing damage to the neocortex. Systematic trajectory planning helps ensure safety and optimal seizure freedom through adequate ablation of the amygdalohippocampal complex (AHC). Previous studies have highlighted the relationship between the residual unablated mesial hippocampal head and failure to achieve seizure freedom. We aim to implement computer-assisted planning (CAP) to improve the ablation volume and safety of LiTT trajectories. METHODS: Twenty-five patients who had previously undergone LiTT for MTLE were studied retrospectively. The EpiNav platform was used to automatically generate an optimal ablation trajectory, which was compared with the previous manually planned and implemented trajectory. Expected ablation volumes and safety profiles of each trajectory were modeled. The implemented laser trajectory and achieved ablation of mesial temporal lobe structures were quantified and correlated with seizure outcome. RESULTS: CAP automatically generated feasible trajectories with reduced overall risk metrics (P < .001) and intracerebral length (P = .007). There was a significant correlation between the actual and retrospective CAP-anticipated ablation volumes, supporting a 15 mm diameter ablation zone model (P < .001). CAP trajectories would have provided significantly greater ablation of the amygdala (P = .0004) and AHC (P = .008), resulting in less residual unablated mesial hippocampal head (P = .001), and reduced ablation of the parahippocampal gyrus (P = .02). SIGNIFICANCE: Compared to manually planned trajectories CAP provides a better safety profile, with potentially improved seizure-free outcome and reduced neuropsychological deficits, following LiTT for MTLE.

Accuracy of intracranial electrode placement for stereoencephalography: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Stereoencephalography (SEEG) is a procedure in which electrodes are inserted into the brain to help define the epileptogenic zone. This is performed prior to definitive epilepsy surgery in patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy when noninvasive data are inconclusive. The main risk of the procedure is hemorrhage, which occurs in 1-2% of patients. This may result from inaccurate electrode placement or a planned electrode damaging a blood vessel that was not detected on the preoperative vascular imaging. Proposed techniques include the use of a stereotactic frame, frameless image guidance systems, robotic guidance systems, and customized patient-specific fixtures. METHODS: Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, a structured search of the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases identified studies that involve the following: (1) SEEG placement as part of the presurgical workup in patients with (2) drug-resistant focal epilepsy for which (3) accuracy data have been provided. RESULTS: Three hundred twenty-six publications were retrieved, of which 293 were screened following removal of duplicate and non-English-language studies. Following application of the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 15 studies were included in the qualitative and quantitative synthesis of the meta-analysis. Accuracies for SEEG electrode implantations have been combined using a random-effects analysis and stratified by technique. SIGNIFICANCE: The published literature regarding accuracy of SEEG implantation techniques is limited. There are no prospective controlled clinical trials comparing different SEEG implantation techniques. Significant systematic heterogeneity exists between the identified studies, preventing any meaningful comparison between techniques. The recent introduction of robotic trajectory guidance systems has been suggested to provide a more accurate method of implantation, but supporting evidence is limited to class 3 only. It is important that new techniques are compared to the previous "gold-standard" through well-designed and methodologically sound studies before they are introduced into widespread clinical practice.

Sample size calculations based on a difference in medians for positively skewed outcomes in health care studies.

BACKGROUND: In healthcare research, outcomes with skewed probability distributions are common. Sample size calculations for such outcomes are typically based on estimates on a transformed scale (e.g. log) which may sometimes be difficult to obtain. In contrast, estimates of median and variance on the untransformed scale are generally easier to pre-specify. The aim of this paper is to describe how to calculate a sample size for a two group comparison of interest based on median and untransformed variance estimates for log-normal outcome data. METHODS: A log-normal distribution for outcome data is assumed and a sample size calculation approach for a two-sample t-test that compares log-transformed outcome data is demonstrated where the change of interest is specified as difference in median values on the untransformed scale. A simulation study is used to compare the method with a non-parametric alternative (Mann-Whitney U test) in a variety of scenarios and the method is applied to a real example in neurosurgery. RESULTS: The method attained a nominal power value in simulation studies and was favourable in comparison to a Mann-Whitney U test and a two-sample t-test of untransformed outcomes. In addition, the method can be adjusted and used in some situations where the outcome distribution is not strictly log-normal. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend the use of this sample size calculation approach for outcome data that are expected to be positively skewed and where a two group comparison on a log-transformed scale is planned. An advantage of this method over usual calculations based on estimates on the log-transformed scale is that it allows clinical efficacy to be specified as a difference in medians and requires a variance estimate on the untransformed scale. Such estimates are often easier to obtain and more interpretable than those for log-transformed outcomes.

Gamma aminobutyric acid (GABA) modulators for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neuron disease.

BACKGROUND: Imbalance of gamma aminobutyric acid (GABA) and related modulators has been implicated as an important factor in the pathogenesis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), which is also known as motor neuron disease (MND). In this context, the role and mechanism of action of gabapentin and baclofen have been extensively investigated, although with conflicting results. This is the first systematic review to assess clinical trials of GABA modulators for the treatment of ALS. OBJECTIVES: To examine the efficacy of gabapentin, baclofen, or other GABA modulators in delaying the progression of ALS, and to evaluate adverse effects of these interventions SEARCH METHODS: On 16 August 2016, we searched the Cochrane Neuromuscular Specialised Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL Plus, AMED, and LILACS. In addition, we checked the bibliographies of the trials found in order to identify any other trials, and contacted trial authors to identify relevant unpublished results or additional clinical trials. On 30 August 2016, we searched two clinical trials registries. SELECTION CRITERIA: Types of studies: double-blind randomized controlled trials (RCTs) or quasi-RCTsTypes of participants: adults with a diagnosis of probable or definite ALSTypes of interventions: gabapentin, baclofen, or other GABA modulators compared with placebo, no treatment, or each otherPrimary outcome: survival at one year from study enrollmentSecondary outcomes: individual rate of decline of maximum voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC), expressed as arm megascore; rate of decline of per cent predicted forced vital capacity (FVC); rate of decline of ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS); health-related quality of life; survival evaluated by pooling hazards; and adverse events DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: At least two review authors independently checked titles and abstracts identified by the searches. The review authors obtained and independently analyzed original individual participant data from each included study; additional review authors and the Cochrane Neuromuscular Managing Editor checked the outcome data. Two authors independently assessed the risk of bias in included studies. Data collection and analysis: At least two review authors independently checked titles and abstracts identified by the searches. The review authors obtained and independently analyzed original individual participant data from each included study; additional review authors and the Cochrane Neuromuscular Managing Editor checked the outcome data. Two authors independently assessed the risk of bias in included studies. MAIN RESULTS: We identified two double-blind RCTs of gabapentin treatment in ALS for inclusion in this review. We found no eligible RCTs of baclofen or other GABA modulators. The selected studies were phase II and phase III trials, which lasted six and nine months, respectively. They were highly comparable because both were comparisons of oral gabapentin and placebo, performed by the same investigators. The trials enrolled 355 participants with ALS: 80 in the gabapentin group and 72 in the placebo group in the first (phase II) trial and 101 in the gabapentin group and 102 in the placebo group in the second (phase III) trial. Neither trial was long enough to report survival at one year, which was our primary outcome. We found little or no difference in estimated one-year survival between the treated group and the placebo group (78% versus 77%, P = 0.63 by log-rank test; high-quality evidence). We also found little or no difference in the rate of decline of MVIC expressed as arm megascore, or rate of FVC decline (high-quality evidence). One trial investigated monthly decline in the ALSFRS and quality of life measured using the 12-Item Short Form Survey (SF-12) and found little or no difference between groups (moderate-quality evidence). The trials reported similar adverse events. Complaints that were clearly elevated in those taking gabapentin, based on analyses of the combined data, were light-headedness, drowsiness, and limb swelling (high-quality evidence). Fatigue and falls occurred more frequently with gabapentin than with placebo in one trial, but when we combined the data for fatigue from both trials, there was no clear difference between the groups. We assessed the overall risk of bias in the included trials as low. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: According to high-quality evidence, gabapentin is not effective in treating ALS. It does not extend survival, slow the rate of decline of muscle strength, respiratory function and, based on moderate-quality evidence, probably does not improve quality of life or slow monthly decline in the ALSFRS. Other GABA modulators have not been studied in randomized trials.

The frequency and outcome of lupus nephritis: results from an international inception cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine nephritis outcomes in a prospective multi-ethnic/racial SLE inception cohort. METHODS: Patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort (≤15 months of SLE diagnosis) were assessed annually for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), proteinuria and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Health-related quality of life was measured by the Short Form (36 questions) health survey questionnaire (SF-36) subscales, mental and physical component summary scores. RESULTS: There were 1827 patients, 89% females, mean (s.d.) age 35.1 (13.3) years. The mean (s.d.) SLE duration at enrolment was 0.5 (0.3) years and follow-up 4.6 (3.4) years. LN occurred in 700 (38.3%) patients: 566/700 (80.9%) at enrolment and 134/700 (19.1%) during follow-up. Patients with nephritis were younger, more frequently men and of African, Asian and Hispanic race/ethnicity. The estimated overall 10-year incidence of ESRD was 4.3% (95% CI: 2.8%, 5.8%), and with nephritis was 10.1% (95% CI: 6.6%, 13.6%). Patients with nephritis had a higher risk of death (HR = 2.98, 95% CI: 1.48, 5.99; P = 0.002) and those with eGFR <30 ml/min at diagnosis had lower SF-36 physical component summary scores (P < 0.01) and lower Physical function, Physical role and Bodily pain scores. Over time, patients with abnormal eGFR and proteinuria had lower SF-36 mental component summary (P ≤ 0.02) scores compared to patients with normal values. CONCLUSION: LN occurred in 38.3% of SLE patients, frequently as the initial presentation, in a large multi-ethnic inception cohort. Despite current standard of care, nephritis was associated with ESRD and death, and renal insufficiency was linked to lower health-related quality of life. Further advances are required for the optimal treatment of LN.

Factors associated with damage accrual in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We studied damage accrual and factors determining development and progression of damage in an international cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. METHODS: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort recruited patients within 15 months of developing four or more 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria for SLE; the SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI) was measured annually. We assessed relative rates of transition using maximum likelihood estimation in a multistate model. The Kaplan-Meier method estimated the probabilities for time to first increase in SDI score and Cox regression analysis was used to assess mortality. RESULTS: We recruited 1722 patients; mean (SD) age 35.0 (13.4) years at cohort entry. Patients with damage at enrolment were more likely to have further worsening of SDI (SDI 0 vs ≥1; p<0.001). Age, USA African race/ethnicity, SLEDAI-2K score, steroid use and hypertension were associated with transition from no damage to damage, and increase(s) in pre-existing damage. Male gender (relative transition rates (95% CI) 1.48 (1.06 to 2.08)) and USA Caucasian race/ethnicity (1.63 (1.08 to 2.47)) were associated with SDI 0 to ≥1 transitions; Asian race/ethnicity patients had lower rates of new damage (0.60 (0.39 to 0.93)). Antimalarial use was associated with lower rates of increases in pre-existing damage (0.63 (0.44 to 0.89)). Damage was associated with future mortality (HR (95% CI) 1.46 (1.18 to 1.81) per SDI point). CONCLUSIONS: Damage in SLE predicts future damage accrual and mortality. We identified several potentially modifiable risk factors for damage accrual; an integrated strategy to address these may improve long-term outcomes.

Bayesian regression discontinuity designs: incorporating clinical knowledge in the causal analysis of primary care data.

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the causal effects of a treatment by exploiting naturally occurring treatment rules. It can be applied in any context where a particular treatment or intervention is administered according to a pre-specified rule linked to a continuous variable. Such thresholds are common in primary care drug prescription where the RD design can be used to estimate the causal effect of medication in the general population. Such results can then be contrasted to those obtained from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and inform prescription policy and guidelines based on a more realistic and less expensive context. In this paper, we focus on statins, a class of cholesterol-lowering drugs, however, the methodology can be applied to many other drugs provided these are prescribed in accordance to pre-determined guidelines. Current guidelines in the UK state that statins should be prescribed to patients with 10-year cardiovascular disease risk scores in excess of 20%. If we consider patients whose risk scores are close to the 20% risk score threshold, we find that there is an element of random variation in both the risk score itself and its measurement. We can therefore consider the threshold as a randomising device that assigns statin prescription to individuals just above the threshold and withholds it from those just below. Thus, we are effectively replicating the conditions of an RCT in the area around the threshold, removing or at least mitigating confounding. We frame the RD design in the language of conditional independence, which clarifies the assumptions necessary to apply an RD design to data, and which makes the links with instrumental variables clear. We also have context-specific knowledge about the expected sizes of the effects of statin prescription and are thus able to incorporate this into Bayesian models by formulating informative priors on our causal parameters.

Headache in systemic lupus erythematosus: results from a prospective, international inception cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the frequency and characteristics of headaches and their association with global disease activity and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: A disease inception cohort was assessed annually for headache (5 types) and 18 other neuropsychiatric (NP) events. Global disease activity scores (SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K]), damage scores (Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), and Short Form 36 (SF-36) mental and physical component summary scores were collected. Time to first headache and associations with SF-36 scores were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards and linear regression models with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Among the 1,732 SLE patients enrolled, 89.3% were female and 48.3% were white. The mean ± SD age was 34.6 ± 13.4 years, duration of disease was 5.6 ± 5.2 months, and length of followup was 3.8 ± 3.1 years. At enrollment, 17.8% of patients had headache (migraine [60.7%], tension [38.6%], intractable nonspecific [7.1%], cluster [2.6%], and intracranial hypertension [1.0%]). The prevalence of headache increased to 58% after 10 years. Only 1.5% of patients had lupus headache, as identified in the SLEDAI-2K. In addition, headache was associated with other NP events attributed to either SLE or non-SLE causes. There was no association of headache with SLEDAI-2K scores (without the lupus headache variable), SDI scores, use of corticosteroids, use of antimalarials, use of immunosuppressive medications, or specific autoantibodies. SF-36 mental component scores were lower in patients with headache compared with those without headache (mean ± SD 42.5 ± 12.2 versus 47.8 ± 11.3; P < 0.001), and similar differences in physical component scores were seen (38.0 ± 11.0 in those with headache versus 42.6 ± 11.4 in those without headache; P < 0.001). In 56.1% of patients, the headaches resolved over followup. CONCLUSION: Headache is frequent in SLE, but overall, it is not associated with global disease activity or specific autoantibodies. Although headaches are associated with a lower HRQOL, the majority of headaches resolve over time, independent of lupus-specific therapies.

Mixture distributions in multi-state modelling: some considerations in a study of psoriatic arthritis.

In many studies, interest lies in determining whether members of the study population will undergo a particular event of interest. Such scenarios are often termed 'mover-stayer' scenarios, and interest lies in modelling two sub-populations of 'movers' (those who have a propensity to undergo the event of interest) and 'stayers' (those who do not). In general, mover-stayer scenarios within data sets are accounted for through the use of mixture distributions, and in this paper, we investigate the use of various random effects distributions for this purpose. Using data from the University of Toronto psoriatic arthritis clinic, we present a multi-state model to describe the progression of clinical damage in hand joints of patients with psoriatic arthritis. We consider the use of mover-stayer gamma, inverse Gaussian and compound Poisson distributions to account for both the correlation amongst joint locations and the possible mover-stayer situation with regard to clinical hand joint damage. We compare the fits obtained from these models and discuss the extent to which a mover-stayer scenario exists in these data. Furthermore, we fit a mover-stayer model that allows a dependence of the probability of a patient being a stayer on a patient-level explanatory variable.

Approaches to risk ratio estimation in a regression discontinuity design: Application to the prescription of statins for cholesterol reduction in UK primary care.

In recent years regression discontinuity designs have been used increasingly for the estimation of treatment effects in observational medical data where a rule-based decision to apply treatment is taken using a continuous assignment variable. Most regression discontinuity design applications have focused on effect estimation where the outcome of interest is continuous, with scenarios with binary outcomes receiving less attention, despite their ubiquity in medical studies. In this work, we develop an approach to estimation of the risk ratio in a fuzzy regression discontinuity design (where treatment is not always strictly applied according to the decision rule), derived using common regression discontinuity design assumptions. This method compares favourably to other risk ratio estimation approaches: the established Wald estimator and a risk ratio estimate from a multiplicative structural mean model, with promising results from extensive simulation studies. A demonstration and further comparison are made using a real example to evaluate the effect of statins (where a statin prescription is made based on a patient's 10-year cardiovascular disease risk score) on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction in UK Primary Care.

Contribution of White Matter Fiber Bundle Damage to Language Change After Surgery for Temporal Lobe Epilepsy.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In medically refractory temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), 30%-50% of patients experience substantial language decline after resection in the language-dominant hemisphere. In this study, we investigated the contribution of white matter fiber bundle damage to language change at 3 and 12 months after surgery. METHODS: We studied 127 patients who underwent TLE surgery from 2010 to 2019. Neuropsychological testing included picture naming, semantic fluency, and phonemic verbal fluency, performed preoperatively and 3 and 12 months postoperatively. Outcome was assessed using reliable change index (RCI; clinically significant decline) and change across timepoints (postoperative scores minus preoperative scores). Functional MRI was used to determine language lateralization. The arcuate fasciculus (AF), inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus (IFOF), inferior longitudinal fasciculus, middle longitudinal fasciculus (MLF), and uncinate fasciculus were mapped using diffusion MRI probabilistic tractography. Resection masks, drawn comparing coregistered preoperative and postoperative T1 MRI scans, were used as exclusion regions on preoperative tractography to estimate the percentage of preoperative tracts transected in surgery. Chi-squared assessments evaluated the occurrence of RCI-determined language decline. Independent sample t tests and MM-estimator robust regressions were used to assess the impact of clinical factors and fiber transection on RCI and change outcomes, respectively. RESULTS: Language-dominant and language-nondominant resections were treated separately for picture naming because postoperative outcomes were significantly different between these groups. In language-dominant hemisphere resections, greater surgical damage to the AF and IFOF was related to RCI decline at 3 months. Damage to the inferior frontal subfasciculus of the IFOF was related to change at 3 months. In language-nondominant hemisphere resections, increased MLF resection was associated with RCI decline at 3 months, and damage to the anterior subfasciculus was related to change at 3 months. Language-dominant and language-nondominant resections were treated as 1 cohort for semantic and phonemic fluency because there were no significant differences in postoperative decline between these groups. Postoperative seizure freedom was associated with an absence of significant language decline 12 months after surgery for semantic fluency. DISCUSSION: We demonstrate a relationship between fiber transection and naming decline after temporal lobe resection. Individualized surgical planning to spare white matter fiber bundles could help to preserve language function after surgery.

Hippocampal resection in temporal lobe epilepsy: Do we need to resect the tail?

INTRODUCTION: Anteromesial temporal lobe resection is the most common surgical technique used to treat drug-resistant mesial temporal lobe epilepsy, particularly when secondary to hippocampal sclerosis. Structural and functional imaging data suggest the importance of sparing the posterior hippocampus for minimising language and memory deficits. Recent work has challenged the view that maximal posterior hippocampal resection improves seizure outcome. This study was designed to assess whether resection of posterior hippocampal atrophy was associated with improved seizure outcome. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a prospective database of all anteromesial temporal lobe resections performed in individuals with hippocampal sclerosis at our epilepsy surgery centre, 2013-2021. Pre- and post-operative MRI were reviewed by 2 neurosurgical fellows to assess whether the atrophic segment, displayed by automated hippocampal morphometry, was resected, and ILAE seizure outcomes were collected at 1 year and last clinical follow-up. Data analysis used univariate and binary logistic regression. RESULTS: Sixty consecutive eligible patients were identified of whom 70% were seizure free (ILAE Class 1 & 2) at one year. There was no statistically significant difference in seizure freedom outcomes in patients who had complete resection of atrophic posterior hippocampus or not (Fisher's Exact test statistic 0.69, not significant at p < .05) both at one year, and at last clinical follow-up. In the multivariate analysis only a history of status epilepticus (OR=0.2, 95%CI:0.042-0.955, p = .04) at one year, and pre-operative psychiatric disorder (OR=0.145, 95%CI:0.036-0.588, p = .007) at last clinical follow-up, were associated with a reduced chance of seizure freedom. SIGNIFICANCE: Our data suggest that seizure freedom is not associated with whether or not posterior hippocampal atrophy is resected. This challenges the traditional surgical dogma of maximal posterior hippocampal resection in anteromesial temporal lobe resections and is a step further optimising this surgical procedure to maximise seizure freedom and minimise associated language and memory deficits.

The impact of temporal lobe epilepsy surgery on picture naming and its relationship to network metric change.

BACKGROUND: Anterior temporal lobe resection (ATLR) is a successful treatment for medically-refractory temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). In the language-dominant hemisphere, 30%- 50% of individuals experience a naming decline which can impact upon daily life. Measures of structural networks are associated with language performance pre-operatively. It is unclear if analysis of network measures may predict post-operative decline. METHODS: White matter fibre tractography was performed on preoperative diffusion MRI of 44 left lateralised and left resection individuals with TLE to reconstruct the preoperative structural network. Resection masks, drawn on co-registered pre- and post-operative T1-weighted MRI scans, were used as exclusion regions on pre-operative tractography to estimate the post-operative network. Changes in graph theory metrics, cortical strength, betweenness centrality, and clustering coefficient were generated by comparing the estimated pre- and post-operative networks. These were thresholded based on the presence of the connection in each patient, ranging from 75% to 100% in steps of 5%. The average graph theory metric across thresholds was taken. We incorporated leave-one-out cross-validation with smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) feature selection and a support vector classifier to assess graph theory metrics on picture naming decline. Picture naming was assessed via the Graded Naming Test preoperatively and at 3 and 12 months post-operatively and the outcome was classified using the reliable change index (RCI) to identify clinically significant decline. The best feature combination and model was selected using the area under the curve (AUC). The sensitivity, specificity and F1-score were also reported. Permutation testing was performed to assess the machine learning model and selected regions difference significance. RESULTS: A combination of clinical and graph theory metrics were able to classify outcome of picture naming at 3 months with an AUC of 0.84. At 12 months, change in strength to cortical regions was best able to correctly classify outcome with an AUC of 0.86. Longitudinal analysis revealed that betweenness centrality was the best metric to identify patients who declined at 3 months, who will then continue to experience decline from 3 to 12 months. Both models were significantly higher AUC values than a random classifier. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that inferred changes of network integrity were able to correctly classify picture naming decline after ATLR. These measures may be used to prospectively to identify patients who are at risk of picture naming decline after surgery and could potentially be utilised to assist tailoring the resection in order to prevent this decline.

A randomized placebo-controlled trial of methotrexate in psoriatic arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: MTX is widely used to treat synovitis in PsA without supporting trial evidence. The aim of our study was to test the value of MTX in the first large randomized placebo-controlled trial (RCT) in PsA. METHODS: A 6-month double-blind RCT compared MTX (15 mg/week) with placebo in active PsA. The primary outcome was PsA response criteria (PsARC). Other outcomes included ACR20, DAS-28 and their individual components. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation methods. Treatments were compared using logistic regression analysis (adjusted for age, sex, disease duration and, where appropriate, individual baseline scores). RESULTS: Four hundred and sixty-two patients were screened and 221 recruited. One hundred and nine patients received MTX and 112 received placebo. Forty-four patients were lost to follow-up (21 MTX, 23 placebo). Twenty-six patients discontinued treatment (14 MTX, 12 placebo). Comparing MTX with placebo in all randomized patients at 6 months showed no significant effect on PsARC [odds ratio (OR) 1.77, 95% CI 0.97, 3.23], ACR20 (OR 2.00, 95% CI 0.65, 6.22) or DAS-28 (OR 1.70, 95% CI 0.90, 3.17). There were also no significant treatment effects on tender and swollen joint counts, ESR, CRP, HAQ and pain. The only benefits of MTX were reductions in patient and assessor global scores and skin scores at 6 months (P = 0.03, P < 0.001 and P = 0.02, respectively). There were no unexpected adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: This trial of active PsA found no evidence for MTX improving synovitis and consequently raises questions about its classification as a disease-modifying drug in PsA. Trial registration. Current Controlled Trials, www.controlled-trials.com, ISRCTN:54376151.