Carbon monoxide levels in households using coal-briquette fuelled stoves exceed WHO air quality guidelines in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

In 2019, a domestic raw coal ban (RCB) was introduced in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Coal-briquettes have since been promoted in Ger district households, however implications for carbon monoxide (CO) exposure remains uncertain. We obtained 48-hour indoor CO concentrations in 23 Ger district households and compared these to 10 raw-coal households. Information on household characteristics, fuel use behaviour and stove venting practices was collected by survey. Mean 48-hour CO concentrations in coal-briquette households was 6.1 ppm (range 1.5-35.8 ppm) with no signfiicant differences by household, stove or venting factors. Peak time-weighted average CO concentrations exceeded WHO Indoor Air Quality guidelines in 9 (39%) households; with all surpassing the 8-hour guideline (>8.6 ppm); 3(13%) the 24-hour guideline (>6 ppm) and 2(9%) the 1-hour guideline (>30 ppm). Median CO levels were significantly lower in coal-briquette compared to raw coal households (p = 0.049). Indoor CO reduction was associated with RCB implementation although hazardous levels persist in this setting.

Mongolia health situation: based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Over the past few decades, economic, political, and social changes have directly and indirectly affected the health of the Mongolian population. To date, no comprehensive analysis has been conducted on the burden of diseases in this country. Thus, we aimed to describe the leading causes of death and disabling conditions and their trends between 1990 and 2019 in the Mongolian population. METHODS: We used the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. In the current study, we examined life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy, the 20 leading causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs), and the contribution of major risk factors to DALYs in Mongolia. FINDINGS: The life expectancy at birth in Mongolia has gradually increased since 1995 and reached 63.8 years for men and 72.7 for women in 2019. The highest increase in the age-standardised death rate between 1990 and 2019 occurred in alcohol use disorders (628.6%; 95% UI 10.0-1109.6) among men, and in liver cancer (129.1%; UI 65.3-222.4) among women. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke showed the highest rates of death, YLLs, and DALYs among both men and women. In 2019, the highest age-standardised rates of DALYs were attributable to high systolic blood pressure and dietary risks. INTERPRETATION: Although Mongolia saw substantial improvements across many communicable diseases, maternal and neonatal disorders, and under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2019, non-communicable diseases remained leading causes of mortality. The mortality from the most preventable causes such as injury, alcohol use, and dietary risks remain substantially high, suggesting that individual and social efforts are needed to tackle these diseases. Our analyses will support the development of policy priorities and action plans in multiple sectors to improve the overall health of the Mongolian population. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Portable HEPA filter air cleaner use during pregnancy and children's behavior problem scores: a secondary analysis of the UGAAR randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Developmental exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution may impair children's behaviors. Our objectives were to quantify the impact of reducing indoor PM using portable HEPA filter air cleaners during pregnancy on behavioral problems in children and to assess associations between indoor fine PM (PM2.5) concentrations during pregnancy and children's behavior. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a single-blind parallel-group randomized controlled trial in which we randomly assigned 540 non-smoking pregnant women to receive 1 or 2 HEPA filter air cleaners or no air cleaners. We administered the Behavior Assessment System for Children (BASC-3) to caregivers when children were a mean age of 23 months, and again at a mean age of 48 months. Primary outcomes were the four BASC-3 composite scales: externalizing problems, internalizing problems, adaptive skills, and the behavioral symptoms index. We imputed missing data using multiple imputation with chained equations. The primary analysis was by intention-to-treat. In a secondary analysis, we evaluated associations between BASC-3 composite indices and modeled trimester-specific PM2.5 concentrations inside residences. RESULTS: We enrolled participants at a median of 11 weeks gestation. After excluding miscarriages, still births and neonatal deaths, our analysis included 478 children (233 control and 245 intervention). We observed no differences in the mean BASC-3 scores between treatment groups. An interquartile increase (20.1 µg/m3) in first trimester PM2.5 concentration was associated with higher externalizing problem scores (2.4 units, 95% CI: 0.7, 4.1), higher internalizing problem scores (2.4 units, 95% CI: 0.7, 4.0), lower adaptive skills scores (-1.5 units, 95% CI: -3.0, 0.0), and higher behavior symptoms index scores (2.3 units, 95% CI: 0.7, 3.9). Third trimester PM2.5 concentrations were also associated with some behavioral indices at age 4, but effect estimates were smaller. No significant associations were observed with PM2.5 concentrations during the second trimester or for any of the BASC indices when children were 2 years old. CONCLUSION: We found no benefit of reducing indoor particulate air pollution during pregnancy on parent-reported behaviors in children. Associations between indoor PM2.5 concentrations in the first trimester and behavioral scores among 4-year old children suggest that it may be necessary to intervene early in pregnancy to protect children, but these exploratory findings should be interpreted cautiously. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01741051.

Disparities in outpatient and inpatient utilization by rural-urban areas among older Mongolians based on a modified WHO-SAGE instrument.

BACKGROUND: Mongolia has made significant progress towards achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC), but there are still challenges ahead with population ageing and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The purpose of this study was to investigate patterns and determinants of outpatient and inpatient health service use amongst older people in Mongolia. METHODS: Data were collected using a questionnaire developed for the World Health Organization's Study on global AGEing and adult health (WHO SAGE). There were 478 participants from rural areas and 497 participants from Ulaanbaatar (further divided into 255 ger/yurt district and 242 apartment district residents). Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to investigate determinants of outpatient and inpatient health service use with reported adjusted Odds Ratios (AORs) and 95 % Confidence Intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Participants were aged 60 to 93 years. About 55 % of respondents used outpatient services in the past 12 months and 51 % used inpatient services in the past three years. Hypertension was the most common reason for health service use. Rural residents had longer travel times and were more likely to incur out-of-pocket expenditure (OOP). Multivariable logistic regression revealed that women were more likely to use outpatient services (AOR 1.88; 1.34-2.63). Compared to apartment residents in urban areas, ger residents in urban areas were less likely to use outpatient services (AOR 0.54; 0.36-0.83). There was no statistically significant differences in inpatient service by location. Increasing numbers of chronic conditions (1 and 2+ compared to none) were associated with both outpatient (AORs 2.59 and 2.78) and inpatient (AORs 1.97 and 3.01) service use. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the needs to address disparities in outpatient service use for rural and urban ger populations. Compared with other WHO-SAGE countries, older Mongolians have relatively higher use of inpatient health care services. With a high prevalence of hypertension and an ageing population, efforts to achieve UHC would benefit from reorienting care services towards prevention and primary care management of NCDs to reduce the costs from hospital-based care.

Increase in Infant Measles Deaths During a Nationwide Measles Outbreak-Mongolia, 2015-2016.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance data from a large measles outbreak in Mongolia suggested increased case fatality ratio (CFR) in the second of 2 waves. To confirm the increase in CFR and identify risk factors for measles death, we enhanced mortality ascertainment and conducted a case-control study among infants hospitalized for measles. METHODS: We linked national vital records with surveillance data of clinically or laboratory-confirmed infant (aged <12 months) measles cases with rash onset during March-September 2015 (wave 1) and October 2015-June 2016 (wave 2). We abstracted medical charts of 95 fatal cases and 273 nonfatal cases hospitalized for measles, matched by age and sex. We calculated adjusted matched odds ratios (amORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk factors. RESULTS: Infant measles deaths increased from 3 among 2224 cases (CFR: 0.13%) in wave 1 to 113 among 4884 cases (CFR: 2.31%) in wave 2 (P < .001). Inpatient admission, 7-21 days before measles rash onset, for pneumonia or influenza (amOR: 4.5; CI, 2.6-8.0), but not other diagnoses, was significantly associated with death. DISCUSSION: Measles infection among children hospitalized with respiratory infections likely increased deaths due to measles during wave 2. Preventing measles virus nosocomial transmission likely decreases measles mortality.

Coal smoke, gestational cadmium exposure, and fetal growth.

BACKGROUND: Gestational cadmium exposure may impair fetal growth. Coal smoke has largely been unexplored as a source of cadmium exposure. We investigated the relationship between gestational cadmium exposure and fetal growth, and assessed coal smoke as a potential source of airborne cadmium, among non-smoking pregnant women in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, where coal combustion in home heating stoves is a major source of outdoor and indoor air pollution. METHODS: This observational study was nested within the Ulaanbaatar Gestation and Air Pollution Research (UGAAR) study, a randomized controlled trial of portable high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter air cleaner use during pregnancy, fetal growth, and early childhood development. We measured third trimester blood cadmium concentrations in 374 out of 465 participants who had a live birth. We used multiple linear and logistic regression to assess the relationships between log2-transformed maternal blood cadmium concentrations and birth weight, length, head circumference, ponderal index, low birth weight, small for gestational age, and preterm birth in crude and adjusted models. We also evaluated the relationships between log2-transformed blood cadmium concentrations and the density of coal-burning stoves within 5000 m of each participant's apartment as a proxy of coal smoke emissions from home heating stoves. RESULTS: The median (25th,75th percentile) blood cadmium concentration was 0.20 (0.15, 0.29) µg/L. A doubling of blood cadmium was associated with a 95 g (95% CI: 34, 155 g) reduction in birth weight in adjusted models. An interquartile range increase in coal stove density (from 3.4 to 4.9 gers/hectare) surrounding participants' apartments was associated with a 12.2% (95% CI: 0.3, 25.6%) increase in blood cadmium concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Gestational cadmium exposure was associated with reduced birth weight. In settings where coal is a widely used fuel, cadmium may play a role in the putative association between air pollution and impaired fetal growth.

Environmental injustice and childhood lead exposure in peri-urban (ger) areas of Darkhan and Erdenet, Mongolia.

BACKGROUND: The ger ("tent city") areas in Mongolia are a product of rapid urbanization and transitional economic development combine with lack of institutional, administrative and financial capacity of governments to cope with the pace. These areas have become traps for inequities in social and environmental services and the associated effects on human health. Disparities in childhood lead exposure in such communities are largely unexplored. METHODS: We measured the concentrations of lead in blood of children, aged 4-7 years, in Erdenet (Orkhon Province) and Darkhan (Darkhan-Uul Province), the second and third largest cities in Mongolia. A survey instrument was used to gather information on influencing factors on lead exposure and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) was used to assess a spectrum of behavioral problems among the children. RESULTS: The mean blood lead level (BLL) of children in the two cities was found to be 3.8 ± 2.6 µg/dL (range: < 1.5-17.2 µg/dL) and 27.8% of the children had BLLs ≥5 µg/dL. Average BLL of children in Erdenet (a mining center) was significantly higher than that for children in Darkhan, and there was statistically significant difference between average BLL of children who live in ger district (4.2 ± 2.8 µg/dL) compared to those of children in housing units within the city (3.2 ± 2.4 µg/dL). In spite of the low values, BLLs was significantly associated with a number of effects on the spectrum of behavioral disorders, specifically with the scores for hyperactivity, conduct disorder and pro-social behavior. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that childhood lead poisoning is common especially in ger communities of the urban areas of Mongolia. It contributes evidence showing that BLL low as 3.8 µg/dL can selectively activate some effects from a spectrum of likely behavioral disorders in children.

The influence of season and living environment on children's urinary 1-hydroxypyrene levels in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

BACKGROUND: Heating indoor living environments elevates air pollution in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to investigate the influence of season and living environment on children's urinary 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) levels in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. METHODS: Our study subjects were 320 children aged 11-15 years living in gers, brick houses and apartments, in ger and non-ger areas of Ulaanbaatar. Spot urine samples and questionnaires were collected three times from each subject in three seasons, September (warm) and December (cold) in 2011 and March (moderate) in 2012. Urinary 1-OHP was analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescent detection (HPLC/FLD). Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were applied to estimate the seasonal and residential effects on 1-OHP levels, adjusting for demographic and environmental factors. RESULTS: Children's urinary 1-OHP levels showed significant seasonal differences with 0.30 ± 0.57 µmol/mol creatinine in cold season, 0.14 ± 0.12 µmol/mol creatinine in moderate season, and 0.14 ± 0.21 µmol/mol creatinine in warm season. After controlling confounding factors, the GEE model showed that season, living area, and housing type had significant influence on children's urinary 1-OHP levels. Urinary 1-OHP levels in the cold and moderate seasons were, respectively 2.13 and 1.37 times higher than the warm season. Urinary 1-OHP levels for children living in ger areas were 1.27 times higher than those living in non-ger areas. Children who lived in gers or brick houses had 1.58 and 1.34 times higher 1-OHP levels, respectively, compared with those living in apartments. Children's urinary 1-OHP levels were associated with either estimated NO2 or SO2 concentrations at their home addresses in Ulaanbaatar. CONCLUSION: Mongolian children's urinary 1-OHP levels were significantly elevated during the cold season, and for those living in ger areas, gers, or brick houses in Ulaanbaatar. Children's urinary 1-OHP levels were associated PAH co-pollutants SO2 and NO2, suggesting elevated 1-OHP levels may be attributable to PAH emissions from coal burning and traffic respectively, with indoor emissions from stoves further contributing to elevated 1-OHP in some children.

Assessment of changes in health care needs.

By 2020, the population of Ulaanbaatar will reach 1,522,400 inhabitants. In addition, estimates show that relative to 2010, there will be 13.1% more outpatient registrations and 11.6% more inpatients by 2020. This study, conducted by descriptive design based on demographic and morbidity data, analyzes whether current health care facilities meet the demands and needs of the Ulaanbaatar population. It also assesses health care needs and accessibilty in Ulaanbaatar by 2020. Both data analysis and qualitative interviews with different sub-groups of the population reveal the neccesity to both reorganize primary level health care facilities and adjust resources in accordance with changing morbidity patterns.

Land use patterns and SO2 and NO2 pollution in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

We proposed to study spatial distribution and source contribution of SO2 and NO2 pollution in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. We collected 2-week ambient SO2 and NO2 concentration samples at 38 sites, which were classified by major sources of air pollution such as ger areas and/or major roads, in three seasons as warm (September, 2011), cold (November-December, 2011), and moderate (March, 2012) in Ulaanbaatar. The SO2 and NO2 concentrations were collected by Ogawa ambient air passive samplers and analyzed by ion chromatography and spectrophotometry methods, respectively. Stepwise regression models were used to estimate the contribution of emission proxies, such as the distance to major roads, ger areas, power plants, and city center, to the ambient concentrations of SO2 and NO2. We found that the SO2 and NO2 concentrations were significantly higher in the cold season than in the warm and moderate seasons at all 38 ambient sampling sites. The SO2 concentrations in 20 ger sites (46.60 ppb in the cold season and 17.82 ppb in the moderate season) were significantly higher than in 18 non-ger sites (23.35 ppb in the cold season and 12.53 ppb in the moderate season). The NO2 concentrations at 19 traffic/road sites (12.85 ppb in the warm season and 20.48 ppb in the moderate season) were significantly higher than those at 19 urban sites (7.60 ppb and 14.39 ppb in the moderate season). Multiple regression models show that SO2 concentrations decreased by 23% in the cold and 17% in the moderate seasons at 0.70 km from the ger areas, an average of all sampling sites, and by 29% in the moderate season at 4.83 km from the city center, an average of all sampling sites. Multiple regression models show that the NO2 concentrations at 4.83 km from the city center decreased by 38% in the warm and 29% in the moderate seasons. Our models also report that NO2 concentrations at 0.16 km from the main roads decreased by 15% and 9% in the warm and the moderate seasons, respectively, and by 16% in the cold season decreased at the location 0.70 km from the ger area. The NO2 concentration at the location 4.83 km from the city center was decreased by 18% and at the location 4.79 km from the power plants by 21%. Our study concludes that SO2 and NO2 concentrations are very high in Ulaanbaatar, especially in the winter, and can be explained by several land use variables, including the distance to the ger areas, the city center, the main roads, and the power plants.

Resources and pilot results for establishing a Mongolian Twin Register.

Despite the need to provide evidence-based health policy, most developing countries suffer from a lack of resources for sound epidemiologic evidence. Most twin registers have been established in developed countries and there are relatively fewer twin registers in developing countries. Considering the immense potential of twin research, it will be worthwhile to attempt to establish a new twin register in Mongolia, where biomedical studies are still scarce. Our objectives were to initiate the process of establishing a nation-wide twin register in Mongolia, based on a nation-wide, population-based database. With the approval and support of the Ministry of Population Development and Social Welfare of Mongolia, we were able to access an initial list of 411 twin pairs who live in the district of Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia. By developing a questionnaire to estimate zygosity, we conducted a pilot survey. Those who registered consisted of 822 individuals or 411 twin pairs (same sex: male - 178; female - 157; different sex - 76), two sets of triplets (same sex: female - 2). The age of twins ranged from 1 to 81 (mean age 7.3 ± 11.3), and 52.4% were males. The first twin survey in Mongolia not only resulted in interim data for the Mongolian Twin Register, but has the potential for establishing a larger register by using the national database. It has been proven possible to establish a twin register for research purposes in Mongolia.

Impact assessment of a raw coal ban on maternal and child health outcomes in Ulaanbaatar: a protocol for an interrupted time series study.

INTRODUCTION: Despite a decade of policy actions, Ulaanbaatar's residents continue to be exposed to extreme levels of air pollution, a major public health concern, especially for vulnerable populations such as pregnant women and children. In May 2019, the Mongolian government implemented a raw coal ban (RCB), prohibiting distribution and use of raw coal in households and small businesses in Ulaanbaatar. Here, we present the protocol for an interrupted time series (ITS; a strong quasi-experimental study design for public health interventions) that aims to assess the effectiveness of this coal ban policy on environmental (air quality) and health (maternal and child) outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Routinely collected data on pregnancy and child respiratory health outcomes between 2016 and 2022 in Ulaanbaatar will be collected retrospectively from the four main hospitals providing maternal and/or paediatric care as well as the National Statistics Office. Hospital admissions data for childhood diarrhoea, an unrelated outcome to air pollution exposure, will be collected to control for unknown or unmeasured coinciding events. Retrospective air pollution data will be collected from the district weather stations and the US Embassy. An ITS analysis will be conducted to determine the RCB intervention impact on these outcomes. Prior to the ITS, we have proposed an impact model based on a framework of five key factors, which were identified through literature search and qualitative research to potentially influence the intervention impact assessment. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained via the Ministry of Health, Mongolia (No.445) and University of Birmingham (ERN_21-1403). To inform relevant stakeholders of our findings, key results will be disseminated on both (inter)national and population levels through publications, scientific conferences and community briefings. These findings are aimed to provide evidence for decision-making in coal pollution mitigation strategies in Mongolia and similar settings throughout the world.

Winter Air Pollution from Domestic Coal Fired Heating in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, Is Strongly Associated with a Major Seasonal Cyclic Decrease in Successful Fecundity.

Pollution of the environment is increasing and threatens the health and wellbeing of adults and children around the globe. The impact of air pollution on pulmonary and cardiovascular disease has been well documented, but it also has a deleterious effect on reproductive health. Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia, has one of the highest levels of air pollution in the world. During the extreme winters when temperatures routinely fall below -20 °C the level of air pollution can reach 80 times the WHO recommended safe levels. Heating mainly comes from coal, which is burned both in power stations, and in stoves in the traditional Ger housing. We studied the impact of air pollution on conception rates and birth outcomes in Ulaanbaatar using a retrospective analysis of health data collected from the Urguu Maternity hospital in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Daily levels of SO2, NO2, PM10, and PM2.5 were collected from the government Air Quality Monitoring Stations in Ulaanbaatar for the same period as the study. In January, the month of highest pollution, there is a 3.2-fold decrease in conceptions that lead to the successfully delivered infants compared to October. The seasonal variations in conceptions resulting in live births in this study in Ulaanbaatar are shown to be 2.03 ± 0.20 (10-sigma) times greater than those in the Denmark/North America study of Wesselink et al., 2020. The two obvious differences between Ulaanbaatar and Europe/North America are pollution and temperature both of which are extreme in Ulaanbaatar. The extreme low temperature is mitigated by burning coal, which is the main source of domestic heat especially in the ger districts. This drives the level of pollution so the two are inextricably linked. Infants conceived in the months of June-October had the greatest cumulative PM2.5 pollution exposure over total gestation, yet these were also the pregnancies with the lowest PM2.5 exposure for the month of conception and three months prior to conception. The delivered-infant conception rate shows a markedly negative association with exposure to PM2.5 prior to and during the first month of pregnancy. This overall reduction in fecundity of the population of Ulaanbaatar is therefore a preventable health risk. It is of great consequence that the air pollution in Ulaanbaatar affects health over an entire lifespan including reproductive health. This could be remedied with a clean source of heating.

Early policy actions and emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Mongolia: experiences and challenges.

Country-led control measures to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, have been diverse. Originating in Wuhan, China, in December, 2019, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic by WHO on March 11, 2020. In recognition of the severity of the outbreak, and having the longest shared border with China, the Government of Mongolia activated the State Emergency Committee in January, 2020, on the basis of the 2017 Disaster Protection Law. As a result, various public health measures have been taken that led to delaying the first confirmed case of COVID-19 until March 10, 2020, and with no intensive care admissions or deaths until July 6, 2020. These measures included promoting universal personal protection and preventions, such as the use of face masks and handwashing, restricting international travel, suspending all training and educational activities from kindergartens to universities, and banning major public gatherings such as the celebration of the national New Year holiday. These measures have been accompanied by active infection surveillance and self-isolation recommendations. The Mongolian case shows that with robust preventive systems, an effective response to a pandemic can be mounted in a low-income or middle-income country. We hereby examine the emergency preparedness experience, effectiveness, and challenges of the early outbreak policies on COVID-19 prevention in Mongolia, as well as any unintended consequences.

Estimation of the unvaccinated among those aged less than 25 years according to aimag and its association with incidence of measles outbreak 2015-2016 in Mongolia.

Mongolia had an epidemic of measles in 2015-2016, even though more than 90% of the population have been vaccinated since 1997. This study aimed to examine the associations between unvaccinated proportion and measles incidence according to aimag. Mongolia has 21 provinces (aimag) with Ulaanbaatar as the capital city. Vaccination coverage between 1991 and 2014 and measles incidence according to aimag were obtained from the National Center for Communicable Diseases of Mongolia database. Accumulated unvaccinated proportion (AUP) among those aged 1 to 24 years in 2015 was estimated from the unvaccinated at the 1st dose of 1991 to 2014. From 1991 to 2014, unvaccinated proportion among those aged 1 to 24 years in the whole country has been reducing from 28.0% in 1991 to 1.8% in 2014. The AUP in 2015 varied from 2.7% (Selenge) to 21.8% (Govisumber). The incidence was remarkably higher in only two aimags with a large density of the unvaccinated aged 1 to 24 years (Ulaanbaatar and Darkhan-Uul) than in the other aimags. The incidence had no significant correlation with the AUP, although the correlation between the incidence and the density of unvaccinated aged 1 to 24 years was significant when the two aimags were included. In conclusion, the AUP between 2.7% and 21.8% had no correlation with the incidence according to aimags in Mongolia measles epidemic 2015-2016.

Can universal patient-held health booklets promote continuity of care and patient-centred care in low-resource countries? The case of Mongolia.

BACKGROUND: A system of clinical records accessible by both patients and their attending healthcare professionals facilitates continuity of care and patient-centred care, thereby improving clinical outcomes. The need for such a system has become greater as the proportion of patients with chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requiring ongoing care increases. This is particularly true in low-income and middle-income countries where the burden of these diseases is greatest. OBJECTIVE: To describe a nationwide patient-held health booklet (PHHB) system and investigate its use and completeness for clinical information transfer during chronic NCD outpatient visits in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. METHODS: Qualitative and quantitative methodologies were employed in this mixed-methods study. Structured interviews were used to study a sample of adult patients with chronic NCDs attending the outpatient departments (OPDs) of two large, public secondary care hospitals ; artefact reviews were used to analyse the content of the written documents relating to their clinical care; and snowball methodology was used to identify policy and training documents. RESULTS: 96% (379/395) brought handover documentation from previous provider/s: 94% had PHHBs, 27% other additional documents and 4% had nothing. 67% were referred from primary care and 44% referred back for follow-up. On leaving the OPD, irrespective of requirements for computer data entry, doctors provided written clinical information in the PHHB for 93% of patients. 84% of patients recalled being given verbal information. However, only 41% of the consultation with written information included all three key handover information items (diagnosis, management/treatment and follow-up). The PHHBs were the best completed type of document, with evidence that they were consulted by patients (80%), public (95%) and private (77%) providers. Living >1 hour away (OR=0.28; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.61) decreased the likelihood of receiving written management/treatment information; living >1 hour away (OR=0.48; 95% CI 0.27 to 0.87), comorbidity (OR=0.55; 95% CI 0.35 to 0.87) and returning to secondary care (OR=0.52; 95% CI 0.33 to 0.80) all independently decreased the likelihood of receiving written follow-up information. A Ministry order mandates the use of the booklet, but there were no other related policies, guidelines or clinician training. CONCLUSION: The universal PHHBs were well accepted, well used and the best completed handover documentation. The PHHBs provided a successful handover option for patients with chronic NCDs in Mongolia, but their completeness needs improving. There is potential for global application.

Evaluation of random forest regression and multiple linear regression for predicting indoor fine particulate matter concentrations in a highly polluted city.

BACKGROUND: Indoor and outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are both leading risk factors for death and disease, but making indoor measurements is often infeasible for large study populations. METHODS: We developed models to predict indoor PM2.5 concentrations for pregnant women who were part of a randomized controlled trial of portable air cleaners in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. We used multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest regression (RFR) to model indoor PM2.5 concentrations with 447 independent 7-day PM2.5 measurements and 87 potential predictor variables obtained from outdoor monitoring data, questionnaires, home assessments, and geographic data sets. We also developed blended models that combined the MLR and RFR approaches. All models were evaluated in a 10-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: The predictors in the MLR model were season, outdoor PM2.5 concentration, the number of air cleaners deployed, and the density of gers (traditional felt-lined yurts) surrounding the apartments. MLR and RFR had similar performance in cross-validation (R2 = 50.2%, R2 = 48.9% respectively). The blended MLR model that included RFR predictions had the best performance (cross validation R2 = 81.5%). Intervention status alone explained only 6.0% of the variation in indoor PM2.5 concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: We predicted a moderate amount of variation in indoor PM2.5 concentrations using easily obtained predictor variables and the models explained substantially more variation than intervention status alone. While RFR shows promise for modelling indoor concentrations, our results highlight the importance of out-of-sample validation when evaluating model performance. We also demonstrate the improved performance of blended MLR/RFR models in predicting indoor air pollution.

Characteristics of Indoor PM2.5 Concentration in Gers Using Coal Stoves in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Coal combustion in ger areas is the main source of ambient air pollution in Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia). This study determined the characteristics of indoor PM2.5 concentrations in gers using coal stoves during winter. The study population consisted of 60 gers in the Chingeltei district of Ulaanbaatar. The indoor particle number concentration (PNC) in each ger was measured using a Dylos DC1700 particle counter for 24 h in January and February 2016. The PNC by Dylos was converted into the mass concentration using a calibration equation developed using a collocated real-time light scattering monitor adjusted by gravimetric measurement. The average 24 h PM2.5 concentration was 203.9 ± 195.1 µg/m³ in gers with traditional stoves (n = 29) and 257.5 ± 204.4 µg/m³ in those with improved stoves (n = 31). In the daily profile, concentrations were lower at night, increased in the early morning, and peaked up to noon. The temperature in gers was slightly higher than that recommended in winter. Many development-assistance programs have supported the installation of improved energy-efficient stoves. Better control measures are needed to improve the indoor air quality of gers.

The effect of portable HEPA filter air cleaner use during pregnancy on fetal growth: The UGAAR randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure may impair fetal growth. AIMS/OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to assess the effect of portable high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter air cleaner use during pregnancy on fetal growth. METHODS: The Ulaanbaatar Gestation and Air Pollution Research (UGAAR) study is a single-blind randomized controlled trial conducted in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Non-smoking pregnant women recruited at ≤18 weeks gestation were randomized to an intervention (1-2 air cleaners in homes from early pregnancy until childbirth) or control (no air cleaners) group. Participants were not blinded to their intervention status. Demographic, health, and birth outcome data were obtained via questionnaires and clinic records. We used unadjusted linear and logistic regression and time-to-event analysis to evaluate the intervention. Our primary outcome was birth weight. Secondary outcomes were gestational age-adjusted birth weight, birth length, head circumference, gestational age at birth, and small for gestational age. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01741051). RESULTS: We recruited 540 participants (272 control and 268 intervention) from January 9, 2014 to May 1, 2015. There were 465 live births and 28 losses to follow up. We previously reported a 29% (95% CI: 21, 37%) reduction in indoor PM2.5 concentrations with portable HEPA filter air cleaner use. The median (25th, 75th percentile) birth weights for control and intervention participants were 3450 g (3150, 3800 g) and 3550 g (3200, 3800 g), respectively (p = 0.34). The intervention was not associated with birth weight (18 g; 95% CI: -84, 120 g), but in a pre-specified subgroup analysis of 429 term births the intervention was associated with an 85 g (95% CI: 3, 167 g) increase in mean birth weight. CONCLUSIONS: HEPA filter air cleaner use in a high pollution setting was associated with greater birth weight only among babies born at term.

The effect of portable HEPA filter air cleaners on indoor PM2.5 concentrations and second hand tobacco smoke exposure among pregnant women in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: The UGAAR randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Portable HEPA filter air cleaners can reduce indoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but their use has not been adequately evaluated in high pollution settings. We assessed air cleaner effectiveness in reducing indoor residential PM2.5 and second hand smoke (SHS) exposures among non-smoking pregnant women in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. METHODS: We randomized 540 participants to an intervention group receiving 1 or 2 HEPA filter air cleaners or a control group receiving no air cleaners. We followed 259 intervention and 253 control participants to the end of pregnancy. We measured one-week indoor residential PM2.5 concentrations in early (~11weeks gestation) and late (~31weeks gestation) pregnancy and collected outdoor PM2.5 data from centrally-located government monitors. We assessed blood cadmium in late pregnancy. Hair nicotine was quantified in a subset (n=125) to evaluate blood cadmium as a biomarker of SHS exposure. We evaluated air cleaner effectiveness using mixed effects and multiple linear regression models and used stratified models and interaction terms to evaluate potential modifiers of effectiveness. RESULTS: The overall geometric mean (GM) one-week outdoor PM2.5 concentration was 47.9µg/m3 (95% CI: 44.6, 51.6µg/m3), with highest concentrations in winter (118.0µg/m3; 110.4, 126.2µg/m3). One-week indoor and outdoor PM2.5 concentrations were correlated (r=0.69). Indoor PM2.5 concentrations were 29% (21, 37%) lower in intervention versus control apartments, with GMs of 17.3µg/m3 (15.8, 18.8µg/m3) and 24.5µg/m3 (22.2, 27.0µg/m3), respectively. Air cleaner effectiveness was greater when air cleaners were first deployed (40%; 31, 48%) than after approximately five months of use (15%; 0, 27%). Blood cadmium concentrations were 14% (4, 23%) lower among intervention participants, likely due to reduced SHS exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Portable HEPA filter air cleaners can lower indoor PM2.5 concentrations and SHS exposures in highly polluted settings.