Environmental variables drive spatial patterns of trophic diversity in mammals.

Understanding environmental drivers of species diversity has become increasingly important under climate change. Different trophic groups (predators, omnivores and herbivores) interact with their environments in fundamentally different ways and may therefore be influenced by different environmental drivers. Using random forest models, we identified drivers of terrestrial mammals' total and proportional species richness within trophic groups at a global scale. Precipitation seasonality was the most important predictor of richness for all trophic groups. Richness peaked at intermediate precipitation seasonality, indicating that moderate levels of environmental heterogeneity promote mammal richness. Gross primary production (GPP) was the most important correlate of the relative contribution of each trophic group to total species richness. The strong relationship with GPP demonstrates that basal-level resource availability influences how diversity is structured among trophic groups. Our findings suggest that environmental characteristics that influence resource temporal variability and abundance are important predictors of terrestrial mammal richness at a global scale.

Widespread Exposure to Mosquitoborne California Serogroup Viruses in Caribou, Arctic Fox, Red Fox, and Polar Bears, Canada.

Northern Canada is warming at 3 times the global rate. Thus, changing diversity and distribution of vectors and pathogens is an increasing health concern. California serogroup (CSG) viruses are mosquitoborne arboviruses; wildlife reservoirs in northern ecosystems have not been identified. We detected CSG virus antibodies in 63% (95% CI 58%-67%) of caribou (n = 517), 4% (95% CI 2%-7%) of Arctic foxes (n = 297), 12% (95% CI 6%-21%) of red foxes (n = 77), and 28% (95% CI 24%-33%) of polar bears (n = 377). Sex, age, and summer temperatures were positively associated with polar bear exposure; location, year, and ecotype were associated with caribou exposure. Exposure was highest in boreal caribou and increased from baseline in polar bears after warmer summers. CSG virus exposure of wildlife is linked to climate change in northern Canada and sustained surveillance could be used to measure human health risks.

Metagenomic Sequencing of Monkeypox Virus, Northern Mexico.

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) has gained interest because of a multicountry outbreak of mpox (formerly monkeypox) cases with no epidemiologic link to MPXV-endemic regions. We sequenced the complete genome of MPXV isolated from a patient in northern Mexico. Phylogenetic analysis grouped the virus with isolates from Germany.

Finding the Effective Dynamics to Make Rare Events Typical in Chaotic Maps.

Dynamical fluctuations or rare events associated with atypical trajectories in chaotic maps due to specific initial conditions can crucially determine their fate, as the may lead to stability islands or regions in phase space otherwise displaying unusual behavior. Yet, finding such initial conditions is a daunting task precisely because of the chaotic nature of the system. In this Letter, we circumvent this problem by proposing a framework for finding an effective topologically conjugate map whose typical trajectories correspond to atypical ones of the original map. This is illustrated by means of examples which focus on counterbalancing the instability of fixed points and periodic orbits, as well as on the characterization of a dynamical phase transition involving the finite-time Lyapunov exponent. The procedure parallels that of the application of the generalized Doob transform in the stochastic dynamics of Markov chains, diffusive processes, and open quantum systems, which in each case results in a new process having the prescribed statistics in its stationary state. This Letter thus brings chaotic maps into the growing family of systems whose rare fluctuations-sustaining prescribed statistics of dynamical observables-can be characterized and controlled by means of a large-deviation formalism.

Coupling-Condensation Strategy for the Convergent Synthesis of an Imidazole-Fused 2-Aminoquinoline NLRP3 Agonist.

The development of a convergent route to the NLRP3 (nucleotide-binding domain and leucine-rich repeat-containing protein 3) agonist BMS-986299 is reported. The synthesis relies on a key Miyaura borylation and a tandem Suzuki-Miyaura coupling between an iodoimidazole and an o-aminochloroarene, followed by acid-mediated cyclization to afford the aminoquinoline core. The subsequent Boc cleavage and regioselective acylation afford the target compound. Two routes to the iodoimidazole intermediate are presented, along with the synthesis of the o-aminochloroarene via Negishi coupling. The convergent six-step route leads to an 80% reduction in process mass intensity compared to the linear enabling synthesis.

Planktonic and biofilm states of Staphylococcus aureus isolated from bone and joint infections and the in vitro effect of orally available antibiotics.

AIMS: To demonstrate the in vitro activity of orally available antibiotics against Staphylococcus aureus isolated from bone or orthopedic implant materials. The biofilm eradication of the combination of three antibiotics was also assessed. METHODS AND RESULTS: Clinical isolates from orthopedic infection samples were collected, and S. aureus isolates were classified according to their biofilm production and composition. Almost all S. aureus isolates (n = 36, 97.3%) produced biofilm and the major biofilm components were polysaccharides. Antimicrobial susceptibility was determined in planktonic (minimal inhibitory concentration; MIC) and biofilm cells (minimal biofilm eradication concentration; MBEC) using the MBEC Calgary Device. Overall, the MBEC ranged higher than the MIC. When combined at borderline-susceptible concentrations, moxifloxacin-rifampin and doxycycline-rifampin were both able to eradicate biofilms in a third of the strains whereas the doxycycline-moxifloxacin combination proved ineffective at eradicating biofilm, inhibiting it only in three strains. CONCLUSIONS: We propose rifampin in combination with moxifloxacin or doxycycline for the design of clinical trials of bone and/or orthopedic device infection without proper debridement or material retention.

The global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 by continents and national income: A meta-analysis.

The aim of this study is to provide a more accurate representation of COVID-19's case fatality rate (CFR) by performing meta-analyses by continents and income, and by comparing the result with pooled estimates. We used multiple worldwide data sources on COVID-19 for every country reporting COVID-19 cases. On the basis of data, we performed random and fixed meta-analyses for CFR of COVID-19 by continents and income according to each individual calendar date. CFR was estimated based on the different geographical regions and levels of income using three models: pooled estimates, fixed- and random-model. In Asia, all three types of CFR initially remained approximately between 2.0% and 3.0%. In the case of pooled estimates and the fixed model results, CFR increased to 4.0%, by then gradually decreasing, while in the case of random-model, CFR remained under 2.0%. Similarly, in Europe, initially, the two types of CFR peaked at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively. The random-model results showed an increase near 5.0%. In high-income countries, pooled estimates and fixed-model showed gradually increasing trends with a final pooled estimates and random-model reached about 8.0% and 4.0%, respectively. In middle-income, the pooled estimates and fixed-model have gradually increased reaching up to 4.5%. in low-income countries, CFRs remained similar between 1.5% and 3.0%. Our study emphasizes that COVID-19 CFR is not a fixed or static value. Rather, it is a dynamic estimate that changes with time, population, socioeconomic factors, and the mitigatory efforts of individual countries.

Regulatory authority and clinical acceptability: Physicians' responses to regulatory drug safety warnings.

AIMS: Medicines regulators issue post-market safety warnings to advise of newly uncovered risks, but with mixed impacts. We aimed to identify factors influencing the use of regulatory warnings by primary care and specialist physicians in the US and Australia. METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were carried out with 40 primary care physicians, endocrinologists and other generalist specialists in Boston (USA) and Australia. Coding and analysis were performed inductively and iteratively to identify and examine key factors. Analysis centred around four areas: physicians' awareness of drug safety information, preferred information sources, opinion-forming and sharing of information with patients. RESULTS: Uncertainty, trust and clinical authority emerged as factors influencing use of advisories. Although regulators were trusted as authoritative institutions, they appeared to lack clinical authority, and physicians validated regulatory information against other trusted sources including evidence, expert opinion and experience. Specialists became aware of drug safety issues through specialised literature, using evidence and clinical consensus to form opinions. Primary care physicians, fielding high volumes of information, relied on convenient, accessible information sources including the media and the "clinical grapevine" for awareness, and on clinical colleagues, specialists and experience for interpretation. Communicating risk to patients was complicated by uncertainty; physicians tailored information to patients' health literacy and information needs. US physicians were more aware of their national regulator's post-market safety role than Australian physicians of theirs. CONCLUSION: Drug safety warnings may not be optimally received or used. Regulators should consider strategies that increase trust, clinical relevance and accessibility, and address physicians' needs in communicating risk to patients.

Stereoselective and Divergent Aza-Adenosine and Aza-Guanosine Syntheses from Xylofuranose, the Key Fragments of a STING Cyclic Dinucleotide Agonist.

The stereoselective and divergent synthesis of two aza-nucleosides is reported. Starting from xylofuranose 9, aza-adenosine 2 was prepared in 13 steps and 7% overall yield, and aza-guanosine 3 was prepared in 13 steps and 7.8% overall yield. Compared to the original syntheses, some advantages of these new routes are significant yield improvement, overall step-count reduction, an optimized protecting group strategy, the development of a versatile platform for nitrogenous base incorporation, and the elimination of hazardous reagents (e.g., benzyl isocyanate, Et3N·HF).

Serological follow up of positive SARS-CoV-2 cases.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the humoral response in a cohort with mild and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection previ-ously identified in a community-based serological survey. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was an observational follow up of 193 subjects previously identified with positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies invited for a second test 112 days after the first sampling. All completed a standardized electronic questionnaire. IgM/IgG antibodies were determined using a qualitative IgM/IgG chemiluminescent immunoassay. RESULTS: Among the 193 eligible subjects, a total of 174 (90%) attended the follow-up visit, and their serum samples were tested. Of the samples, 171 (98.3%) were still positive, and 3 (1.7%) were negative. Also, the cut-off index (COI) value of the immunoassay significantly increased from the first to the second test (P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support a sustained humoral response in individuals with mild and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection up to 112 days after a positive serologic baseline test, accompanied by increasing antibody titers.

Synthesis of carbon-14 and stable isotope labeled Censavudine.

Censavudine is a nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) explored clinically by Bristol Myers Squibb for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1). As part of the development process, a carbon-14 labeled analog was synthesized for use in a human absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) study. A stable isotope labeled analog was also synthesized for use as a mass spectrum internal standard in bioanalytical assays to accurately quantify the concentration of the drug in biological samples. Carbon-14 labeled Censavudine was synthesized in 10 steps in a 9% overall yield from carbon-14 labeled trimethylsilylacetylene. A total of 4.44 mCi of material was prepared with a specific activity of 0.25 µCi/mg. The radiochemical and UV purities were 99% and it met all of the specifications for use in a human clinical study. Deuterium labeled Censavudine was synthesized in two steps in a 68% overall yield from [D4 ]-thymine. A total of 237 mg were prepared with a UV purity of 99%.

Long-term increases in pathogen seroprevalence in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) influenced by climate change.

The influence of climate change on wildlife disease dynamics is a burgeoning conservation and human health issue, but few long-term studies empirically link climate to pathogen prevalence. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are vulnerable to the negative impacts of sea ice loss as a result of accelerated Arctic warming. While studies have associated changes in polar bear body condition, reproductive output, survival, and abundance to reductions in sea ice, no long-term studies have documented the impact of climate change on pathogen exposure. We examined 425 serum samples from 381 adult polar bears, collected in western Hudson Bay (WH), Canada, for antibodies to selected pathogens across three time periods: 1986-1989 (n = 157), 1995-1998 (n = 159) and 2015-2017 (n = 109). We ran serological assays for antibodies to seven pathogens: Toxoplasma gondii, Neospora caninum, Trichinella spp., Francisella tularensis, Bordetella bronchiseptica, canine morbillivirus (CDV) and canine parvovirus (CPV). Seroprevalence of zoonotic parasites (T. gondii, Trichinella spp.) and bacterial pathogens (F. tularensis, B. bronchiseptica) increased significantly between 1986-1989 and 1995-1998, ranging from +6.2% to +20.8%, with T. gondii continuing to increase into 2015-2017 (+25.8% overall). Seroprevalence of viral pathogens (CDV, CPV) and N. caninum did not change with time. Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence was higher following wetter summers, while seroprevalences of Trichinella spp. and B. bronchiseptica were positively correlated with hotter summers. Seroprevalence of antibodies to F. tularensis increased following years polar bears spent more days on land, and polar bears previously captured in human settlements were more likely to be seropositive for Trichinella spp. As the Arctic has warmed due to climate change, zoonotic pathogen exposure in WH polar bears has increased, driven by numerous altered ecosystem pathways.

Prevalence and associated characteristics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Mexico 5 months after pandemic arrival.

BACKGROUND: Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is now available in several world regions to better estimate transmission dynamics. However, to date, there is no epidemiological data regarding anti-SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in Mexico. Therefore, we aimed to determine the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and define the clinical and demographic characteristics associated with seroprevalence. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional serological survey in Ciudad Guadalupe, NL, Mexico. City government employees voluntarily participated during July 2020. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected at the time of blood sampling to analyze the associated characteristics. IgM/IgG antibodies were determined using a qualitative chemiluminescent immunoassay. Descriptive statistics were used for categorical and continuous variables. Statistical significance was tested using the Chi-squared test, Student's t-test and the Mann-Whitney. Logistic regression models and the odds ratios (adjusted and unadjusted) were used to estimate the association of demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: Of the 3,268 participants included, 193 (5.9%, 95% CI 5.1-6.8) tested positive for IgM/IgG against SARS-CoV-2. Sex, city of residence, and comorbidities did not show any association with having IgM/IgG antibodies. A total of 114 out of 193 (59.1%) subjects with a positive test were asymptomatic, and the odds of being positive were higher in those who reported symptoms of COVID-19 in the previous four weeks to the survey (OR 4.1, 95% CI 2.9-5.5). CONCLUSIONS: There is a low rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection among government employees that have continuously been working during the pandemic. Six in ten infections were asymptomatic, and seroprevalence is low and still far from herd immunity. Epidemiological surveillance and preventive measures should be mandatory.

Molecular investigation of an outbreak associated with total parenteral nutrition contaminated with NDM-producing Leclercia adecarboxylata.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to determine the epidemiological, microbiological, and molecular characteristics of an outbreak of carbapenem-resistant Leclercia adecarboxylata in three hospitals associated with the unintended use of contaminated total parental nutrition (TPN). METHODS: For 10 days, 25 patients who received intravenous TPN from the same batch of a formula developed sepsis and had blood cultures positive for L. adecarboxylata. Antimicrobial susceptibility and carbapenemase production were performed in 31 isolates, including one from an unopened bottle of TPN. Carbapenemase-encoding genes, extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-encoding genes were screened by PCR, and plasmid profiles were determined. Horizontal transfer of carbapenem resistance was performed by solid mating. Clonal diversity was performed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. The resistome was explored by whole-genome sequencing on two selected strains, and comparative genomics was performed using Roary. RESULTS: All 31 isolates were resistant to aztreonam, cephalosporins, carbapenems, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, and susceptible to gentamicin, tetracycline, and colistin. Lower susceptibility to levofloxacin (51.6%) and ciprofloxacin (22.6%) was observed. All the isolates were carbapenemase producers and positive for blaNDM-1, blaTEM-1B, and blaSHV-12 genes. One main lineage was detected (clone A, 83.9%; A1, 12.9%; A2, 3.2%). The blaNDM-1 gene is embedded in a Tn125-like element. Genome analysis showed genes encoding resistance for aminoglycosides, quinolones, trimethoprim, colistin, phenicols, and sulphonamides and the presence of IncFII (Yp), IncHI2, and IncHI2A incompatibility groups. Comparative genomics showed a major phylogenetic relationship among L. adecarboxylata I1 and USDA-ARS-USMARC-60222 genomes, followed by our two selected strains. CONCLUSION: We present epidemiological, microbiological, and molecular evidence of an outbreak of carbapenem-resistant L. adecarboxylata in three hospitals in western Mexico associated with the use of contaminated TPN.

Association between convalescent plasma treatment and mortality in COVID-19: a collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Convalescent plasma has been widely used to treat COVID-19 and is under investigation in numerous randomized clinical trials, but results are publicly available only for a small number of trials. The objective of this study was to assess the benefits of convalescent plasma treatment compared to placebo or no treatment and all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19, using data from all available randomized clinical trials, including unpublished and ongoing trials (Open Science Framework, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/GEHFX ). METHODS: In this collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis, clinical trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform), the Cochrane COVID-19 register, the LOVE database, and PubMed were searched until April 8, 2021. Investigators of trials registered by March 1, 2021, without published results were contacted via email. Eligible were ongoing, discontinued and completed randomized clinical trials that compared convalescent plasma with placebo or no treatment in COVID-19 patients, regardless of setting or treatment schedule. Aggregated mortality data were extracted from publications or provided by investigators of unpublished trials and combined using the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman random effects model. We investigated the contribution of unpublished trials to the overall evidence. RESULTS: A total of 16,477 patients were included in 33 trials (20 unpublished with 3190 patients, 13 published with 13,287 patients). 32 trials enrolled only hospitalized patients (including 3 with only intensive care unit patients). Risk of bias was low for 29/33 trials. Of 8495 patients who received convalescent plasma, 1997 died (23%), and of 7982 control patients, 1952 died (24%). The combined risk ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.92; 1.02) with between-study heterogeneity not beyond chance (I2 = 0%). The RECOVERY trial had 69.8% and the unpublished evidence 25.3% of the weight in the meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Convalescent plasma treatment of patients with COVID-19 did not reduce all-cause mortality. These results provide strong evidence that convalescent plasma treatment for patients with COVID-19 should not be used outside of randomized trials. Evidence synthesis from collaborations among trial investigators can inform both evidence generation and evidence application in patient care.

Azithromycin effect on multidrug resistant Acinetobacter baumannii biofilm production and composition.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of azithromycin (AZM) on biofilm formation and composition in multidrug resistant (MDR) Acinetobacter baumannii. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Ninety-six A. baumannii isolates were studied. Antimicrobial susceptibility and sub-minimum inhibitory concentration (sub-MIC) were determined by the broth microdilution method. Carbapenemase genes were detected by polymerase chain reaction and clonal diversity by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Biofilm formation without AZM and AZM sub-MIC were determined by crystal violet staining. AZM-free biofilm composition and AZM sub-MIC were determined by detachment assays. RESULTS: The selected A. baumannii were MDR; 93.8% were carbapenem-resistant and 24 were OXA-24-positive. PFGE showed predominance of clones A (53%), B (34.7%) and C (12.5%). Biofilm production at AZM sub-MICs decreased in 53.1%, increased in 34.7% and showed no differences in 12.5% of isolates, in comparison with biofilm production without AZM. CONCLUSION: AZM sub-MIC can reduce biofilm production in A. baumannii MDR isolates with decreased protein and DNA in the biofilm. Our results may be useful in synergy studies for new therapeutic alternatives.

OBJETIVOS: Evaluar el efecto de la azitromicina (AZM) en la formación y composición de biopelículas en Acinetobacter baumannii resistente a múltiples fármacos (MDR). MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se estudiaron 96 aislamientos de A. baumannii. La susceptibilidad antimicrobiana y la concentración inhibitoria submínima (sub-MIC) se determinaron por el método de microdilución del caldo. Los genes carbapenemasa fueron detectados por reacción en cadena de la polimerasa y la diversidad clonal por electroforesis en gel de campos pulsados (PFGE). La formación de biopelículas sin AZM y la sub-MIC de AZM por tinción de cristal violeta. La composición de la biopelícula sin AZM y la sub-MIC de AZM se determinaron mediante ensayos de desprendimiento. RESULTADOS: Los A. baumannii seleccionados fueron MDR; el 93.8% resistentes al carbapenem y 24 OXA-24 positivos. El PFGE demostró predominancia en los clones A (53%), B (34.7%) y C (12.5%). La producción de biopelículas en sub-MIC de AZM disminuyó en un 53.1%, aumentó en un 34.7% y no mostró diferencias en un 12.5% de los aislamientos, comparado con la producción de biopelículas sin AZM. CONCLUSIÓN: La sub-MIC de AZM puede reducir la producción de biopelículas en aislamientos de A. baumannii MDR con disminución de proteínas y el ADN en la biopelícula. Nuestros resultados pueden ser útiles en estudios de sinergia para nuevas alternativas terapéuticas.

Microbial diversity and colonization patterns of two step-down care units from a tertiary care hospital.

Nosocomial surfaces are potential pathogen reservoirs. Our aim was to describe the microbial diversity and analyze microbial patterns of healthcare-associated pathogens in two step-down-care-units at a tertiary care hospital. We monitored infected patients over 45 days to describe microbial diversity and colonization patterns. A total of 2762 isolates were recovered from the sampled sites, coagulase-negative staphylococci represented 44.64% (1233/2762) of the isolates. The most frequently recovered ESKAPE species (Enterococcus faecium, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Enterobacter cloacae) were A. baumannii (7.53%; 208/2762 isolates) and E. faecium/Enterococcus faecalis (5.18%; 143/2762). We recovered a high diversity of species, including potential pathogens. A. baumannii was detected more frequently on diverse surfaces and persisted in patients' nostrils during the hospital stay.

Empagliflozin and the Risk of Heart Failure Hospitalization in Routine Clinical Care.

BACKGROUND: The EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial (Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 diabetes Mellitus Patients) showed that empagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor, reduces the risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) by 35%, on top of standard of care in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and established cardiovascular disease. The EMPRISE (Empagliflozin Comparative Effectiveness and Safety) study aims to assess empagliflozin's effectiveness, safety, and healthcare utilization in routine care from August 2014 through September 2019. In this first interim analysis, we investigated the risk of HHF among T2D patients initiating empagliflozin versus sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor. METHODS: Within 2 commercial and 1 federal (Medicare) claims data sources in the United States, we identified a 1:1 propensity score-matched cohort of T2D patients ≥18 years old initiating empagliflozin or sitagliptin from August 2014 through September 2016. The HHF outcome was defined as a HF discharge diagnosis in the primary position (HHF-specific); a broader definition was based on a HF discharge diagnosis in any position (HHF-broad). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated controlling for over 140 baseline characteristics in each data source and pooled by fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: After propensity-score matching, we identified 16,443 patient pairs who initiated empagliflozin or sitagliptin. Average age was approximately 59 years, almost 54% of the participants were males, and approximately 25% had records of existing cardiovascular disease. Compared with sitagliptin, the initiation of empagliflozin decreased the risk of HHF-specific by 50% (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.28-0.91), and the risk of HHF-broad by 49% (HR, 0.51;95% CI, 0.39-0.68), over a mean follow-up of 5.3 months. The results were consistent in patients with and without baseline cardiovascular disease, and for empagliflozin at both the 10- and 25-mg daily doses; analyses comparing empagliflozin versus the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor class, and comparing sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor classes also produced consistent findings. CONCLUSIONS: The first interim analysis from EMPRISE showed that compared with sitagliptin, the initiation of empagliflozin was associated with a decreased risk of HHF among patients with T2D as treated in routine care, with and without a history of cardiovascular disease. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT03363464.

Validation of claims-based algorithms for psoriatic arthritis.

PURPOSE: An increasing number of new medications are being developed and approved for psoriatic arthritis (PsA). To generate real-world evidence on comparative safety and effectiveness of these drugs, a claims-based algorithm that can accurately identify PsA is greatly needed. METHODS: To identify patients with PsA, we developed seven claims-based algorithms based on a combination of diagnosis codes and medication dispensing using the claims data from Medicare parts A/B/D linked to electronic medical records (2012-2014). Two physicians independently conducted a chart review using the treating physician's diagnosis of PsA as the gold standard. We calculated the positive predictive value (PPV) and 95% confidence intervals of each algorithm. RESULTS: Of the total 2157 records identified by the seven algorithms, 45% of the records had relevant clinical data to determine the presence of PsA. The PPV of the algorithms ranged from 75.2% (algorithm 1: ≥2 diagnosis codes for PsA and ≥1 diagnosis code for psoriasis) to 88.6% (algorithm 7: ≥2 diagnosis codes for PsA with ≥1 code by rheumatologist and ≥1 dispensing for PsA medication). Having ≥2 diagnosis codes and ≥1 dispensing for PsA medications (algorithm 6) also had PPV of 82.4%. CONCLUSIONS: All seven claims-based algorithms demonstrated a moderately high PPV of 75% to 89% in identifying PsA. The use of ≥2 diagnosis codes plus ≥1 prescription claim for PsA appears to be a valid and efficient tool in identifying PsA patients in the claims data, while broader algorithms based on diagnoses without a prescription claim also have reasonably good PPVs.

Mapping from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 9th to 10th Revision for Research in Biologics and Biosimilars Using Administrative Healthcare Data.

PURPOSE: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) mandated the transition from ICD-9 to ICD-10 codes on October 1, 2015. Postmarketing surveillance of newly marketed drugs, including novel biologics and biosimilars, requires a robust approach to convert ICD-9 to ICD-10 codes for study variables. We examined three mapping methods for health conditions (HCs) of interest to the Biologics and Biosimilars Collective Intelligence Consortium (BBCIC) and compared their prevalence. METHODS: Using CMS General Equivalence Mappings, we applied forward-backward mapping (FBM) to 108 HCs and secondary mapping (SM) and tertiary mapping (TM) to seven preselected HCs. A physician reviewed the mapped ICD-10 codes. The prevalence of the 108 HCs defined by ICD-9 versus ICD-10 codes was examined in BBCIC's distributed research network (September 1, 2012 to March 31, 2018). We visually assessed prevalence trends of these HCs and applied a threshold of 20% level change in ICD-9 versus ICD-10 prevalence. RESULTS: Nearly four times more ICD-10 codes were mapped by SM and TM than FBM, but most were irrelevant or nonspecific. For conditions like myocardial infarction, SM or TM did not generate additional ICD-10 codes. Through visual inspection, one-fifth of the HCs had inconsistent ICD-9 versus ICD-10 prevalence trends. 13% of HCs had a level change greater than +/-20%. CONCLUSION: FBM is generally the most efficient way to convert ICD-9 to ICD-10 codes, yet manual review of converted ICD-10 codes is recommended even for FBM. The lack of existing guidance to compare the performance of ICD-9 with ICD-10 codes led to challenges in empirically determining the quality of conversions.