Complex evolutionary processes maintain an ancient chromosomal inversion.

Genome re-arrangements such as chromosomal inversions are often involved in adaptation. As such, they experience natural selection, which can erode genetic variation. Thus, whether and how inversions can remain polymorphic for extended periods of time remains debated. Here we combine genomics, experiments, and evolutionary modeling to elucidate the processes maintaining an inversion polymorphism associated with the use of a challenging host plant (Redwood trees) in Timema stick insects. We show that the inversion is maintained by a combination of processes, finding roles for life-history trade-offs, heterozygote advantage, local adaptation to different hosts, and gene flow. We use models to show how such multi-layered regimes of balancing selection and gene flow provide resilience to help buffer populations against the loss of genetic variation, maintaining the potential for future evolution. We further show that the inversion polymorphism has persisted for millions of years and is not a result of recent introgression. We thus find that rather than being a nuisance, the complex interplay of evolutionary processes provides a mechanism for the long-term maintenance of genetic variation.

The gut microbiome reflects ancestry despite dietary shifts across a hybrid zone.

The microbiome is critical to an organism's phenotype, and its composition is shaped by, and a driver of, eco-evolutionary interactions. We investigated how host ancestry, habitat and diet shape gut microbial composition in a mammalian hybrid zone between Neotoma lepida and N. bryanti that occurs across an ecotone between distinct vegetation communities. We found that habitat is the primary determinant of diet, while host genotype is the primary determinant of the gut microbiome-a finding further supported by intermediate microbiome composition in first-generation hybrids. Despite these distinct primary drivers, microbial richness was correlated with diet richness, and individuals that maintained higher dietary richness had greater gut microbial community stability. Both relationships were stronger in the relative dietary generalist of the two parental species. Our findings show that host ancestry interacts with dietary habits to shape the microbiome, ultimately resulting in the phenotypic plasticity that host-microbial interactions allow.

Reduced representation sequencing to understand the evolutionary history of Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana parry) with implications for rare species conservation.

Understanding the contribution of neutral and adaptive evolutionary processes to population differentiation is often necessary for better informed management and conservation of rare species. In this study, we focused on Pinus torreyana Parry (Torrey pine), one of the world's rarest pines, endemic to one island and one mainland population in California. Small population size, low genetic diversity, and susceptibility to abiotic and biotic stresses suggest Torrey pine may benefit from interpopulation genetic rescue to preserve the species' evolutionary potential. We leveraged reduced representation sequencing to tease apart the respective contributions of stochastic and deterministic evolutionary processes to population differentiation. We applied these data to model spatial and temporal demographic changes in effective population sizes and genetic connectivity, to identify loci possibly under selection, and evaluate genetic rescue as a potential conservation strategy. Overall, we observed exceedingly low standing variation within both Torrey pine populations, reflecting consistently low effective population sizes across time, and limited genetic differentiation, suggesting maintenance of gene flow between populations following divergence. However, genome scans identified more than 2000 candidate SNPs potentially under divergent selection. Combined with previous observations indicating population phenotypic differentiation, this indicates natural selection has probably contributed to the evolution of population genetic differences. Thus, while reduced genetic diversity, small effective population size, and genetic connectivity between populations suggest genetic rescue could mitigate the adverse effects of rarity, evidence for adaptive differentiation suggests genetic mixing could disrupt adaptation. Further work evaluating the fitness consequences of inter-population admixture is necessary to empirically evaluate the trade-offs associated with genetic rescue in Torrey pine.

Phylogenomic analyses resolve relationships among garter snakes (Thamnophis: Natricinae: Colubridae) and elucidate biogeographic history and morphological evolution.

Garter snakes (Thamnophis) are a successful group of natricines endemic to North America. They have become important natural models for ecological and evolutionary research, yet prior efforts to resolve phylogenetic relationships have resulted in conflicting topologies and weak support for certain relationships. Here, we use genomic data generated with a reduced representation double-digest RADseq approach to reassess evolutionary relationships across Thamnophis. We then use the resulting phylogeny to better understand how biogeography and feeding ecology have influenced lineage diversification and morphological evolution. We recovered highly congruent and strongly supported topologies from maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses, but some discordance with a multispecies coalescent approach. All phylogenomic estimates split Thamnophis into two clades largely defined by northern and southern North American species. Divergence time estimates and biogeographic analyses indicate a mid-Miocene origin of Thamnophis in Mexico. In addition, historic vicariant events thought to explain biogeographic patterns in other lineages (e.g., Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Rocky Mountain Range, and Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt) appear to have influenced patterns of diversification in Thamnophis as well. Analyses of morphological traits associated with feeding ecology showed moderate to strong phylogenetic signal. Nevertheless, phylogenetic ANOVA suggested significant differences in certain cranial morphologies between aquatic specialists and garter snakes that are terrestrial-aquatic generalists, independent of evolutionary history. Our new estimate of Thamnophis phylogeny yields an improved understanding of the biogeographic history and morphological evolution of garter snakes, and provides a robust framework for future research on these snakes.

Multigenerational backcrossing and introgression between two woodrat species at an abrupt ecological transition.

When organisms experience secondary contact after allopatric divergence, genomic regions can introgress differentially depending on their relationships with adaptation, reproductive isolation, recombination, and drift. Analyses of genome-wide patterns of divergence and introgression could provide insight into the outcomes of hybridization and the potential relationship between allopatric divergence and reproductive isolation. Here, we generate population genetic data (26,262 SNPs; 353 individuals) using a reduced-representation sequencing approach to quantify patterns of ancestry, differentiation, and introgression between a pair of ecologically distinct mammals-the desert woodrat (N. lepida) and Bryant's woodrat (N. bryanti)-that hybridize at a sharp ecotone in southern California. Individual ancestry estimates confirmed that hybrids were rare in this bimodal hybrid zone, and entirely consisted of a few F1 individuals and a broad range of multigenerational backcrosses. Genomic cline analyses indicated more than half of loci had elevated introgression from one genomic background into the other. However, introgression was not associated with relative or absolute measures of divergence, and loci with extreme values for both were not typically found near detoxification enzymes previously implicated in dietary specialization for woodrats. The decoupling of differentiation and introgression suggests that processes other than adaptation, such as drift, may underlie the extreme clines at this contact zone.

Genome-wide RAD sequencing resolves the evolutionary history of serrate leaf Juniperus and reveals discordance with chloroplast phylogeny.

Juniper (Juniperus) is an ecologically important conifer genus of the Northern Hemisphere, the members of which are often foundational tree species of arid regions. The serrate leaf margin clade is native to topologically variable regions in North America, where hybridization has likely played a prominent role in their diversification. Here we use a reduced-representation sequencing approach (ddRADseq) to generate a phylogenomic data set for 68 accessions representing all 22 species in the serrate leaf margin clade, as well as a number of close and distant relatives, to improve understanding of diversification in this group. Phylogenetic analyses using three methods (SVDquartets, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian) yielded highly congruent and well-resolved topologies. These phylogenies provided improved resolution relative to past analyses based on Sanger sequencing of nuclear and chloroplast DNA, and were largely consistent with taxonomic expectations based on geography and morphology. Calibration of a Bayesian phylogeny with fossil evidence produced divergence time estimates for the clade consistent with a late Oligocene origin in North America, followed by a period of elevated diversification between 12 and 5 Mya. Comparison of the ddRADseq phylogenies with a phylogeny based on Sanger-sequenced chloroplast DNA revealed five instances of pronounced discordance, illustrating the potential for chloroplast introgression, chloroplast transfer, or incomplete lineage sorting to influence organellar phylogeny. Our results improve understanding of the pattern and tempo of diversification in Juniperus, and highlight the utility of reduced-representation sequencing for resolving phylogenetic relationships in non-model organisms with reticulation and recent divergence.

The cost of travel: How dispersal ability limits local adaptation in host-parasite interactions.

Classical theory suggests that parasites will exhibit higher fitness in sympatric relative to allopatric host populations (local adaptation). However, evidence for local adaptation in natural host-parasite systems is often equivocal, emphasizing the need for infection experiments conducted over realistic geographic scales and comparisons among species with varied life history traits. Here, we used infection experiments to test how two trematode (flatworm) species (Paralechriorchis syntomentera and Ribeiroia ondatrae) with differing dispersal abilities varied in the strength of local adaptation to their amphibian hosts. Both parasites have complex life cycles involving sequential transmission among aquatic snails, larval amphibians and vertebrate definitive hosts that control dispersal across the landscape. By experimentally pairing 26 host-by-parasite population infection combinations from across the western USA with analyses of host and parasite spatial genetic structure, we found that increasing geographic distance-and corresponding increases in host population genetic distance-reduced infection success for P. syntomentera, which is dispersed by snake definitive hosts. For the avian-dispersed R. ondatrae, in contrast, the geographic distance between the parasite and host populations had no influence on infection success. Differences in local adaptation corresponded to parasite genetic structure; although populations of P. syntomentera exhibited ~10% mtDNA sequence divergence, those of R. ondatrae were nearly identical (<0.5%), even across a 900 km range. Taken together, these results offer empirical evidence that high levels of dispersal can limit opportunities for parasites to adapt to local host populations.

How specialized is a soil specialist? Early life history responses of a rare Eriogonum to site-level variation in volcanic soils.

PREMISE: Understanding edaphic specialization is crucial for conserving rare plants that may need relocation due to habitat loss. Focusing on Eriogonum crosbyae, a rare soil specialist in the Great Basin of the United States, we asked how site-level variation among volcanic soil outcrops affected plant growth and population distribution. METHODS: We measured emergence, survival, size, and biomass allocation of E. crosbyae seedlings planted in soils collected from 42 outcrops of actual and potential habitat. We also measured phenotypic variation in the wild, documented abiotic and biotic components of E. crosbyae habitat, re-surveyed Nevada populations, and evaluated occupancy changes over time. RESULTS: Plants responded plastically to edaphic variation, growing larger and allocating relatively more to aboveground tissues in soils with greater nutrient availability and growing smaller in soils higher in copper in the field and the greenhouse. However, the chemical and physical soil properties we measured did not predict site occupancy, nor was plant phenotype in the greenhouse different when plants were grown in soils from sites with different occupation status. We observed occupation status reversals at five locations. CONCLUSIONS: Eriogonum crosbyae performed well in soils formed on hydrothermally altered rocks that are inhospitable to many other plants. Extirpation/colonization events observed were consistent with metapopulation dynamics, which may partially explain the patchy distribution of E. crosbyae among outcrops of potential habitat. While soil properties did not predict site occupancy, early life stages showed sensitivity to soil variation, indicating that seedling dynamics may be important to consider for the conservation of this soil specialist.

Genetic evidence for species cohesion, substructure and hybrids in spruce.

The origin and history of species are shaped by various evolutionary dynamics, including their persistence in the face of potential gene flow from related taxa. In this study, we use broad geographical and taxonomic sampling (2,219 individuals) to establish the distribution of species, hybrids and cryptic genetic variation within the conifer genus Picea (spruce) across western North America. We demonstrate that the six species of spruce in this region are distinguishable based on their genetic composition, and that the more closely related Engelmann spruce (P. engelmannii) and white spruce (P. glauca) have generated numerous and widespread hybrids. These hybrids occur in the central Rocky Mountains, well to the south of the well-established region of admixture in Canada. Additionally, we provide evidence for subdivision within Engelmann spruce, manifested as a southern Rocky Mountains form, and a northern Rocky Mountain and Cascade mountains (western) form. In the intervening central Rocky Mountains region (forests in Wyoming and adjacent states) we found primarily individuals with admixed ancestry. Following their origin, these species of spruce have interacted repeatedly and in different geographical contexts. Multiple pairs of species have been shown to hybridize, yet the species persist and retain distinguishable compositions. At the same time, large geographical areas exist where hybrids are pervasive. Consequently, spruce provide a case study for the maintenance of species boundaries, particularly for how widespread hybridization need not lead to the collapse and loss of species.

Rarity does not limit genetic variation or preclude subpopulation structure in the geographically restricted desert forb Astragalus lentiginosus var. piscinensis.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Characteristics of rare taxa include small population sizes and limited geographical ranges. The genetic consequences of rarity are poorly understood for most taxa. A small geographical range could result in reduced opportunity for isolation by distance or environment, thereby limiting genetic structure and variation, but few studies explore genetic structure at small spatial scales with sufficient resolution to test this hypothesis. Moreover, few comparative genetic studies exist among infrataxa differing in rarity. Here, we compare genetic variation among varieties of Astragalus lentiginosus differing in range size. Additionally, we ask if genetic structure exists in A. lentiginosus var. piscinensis, a rare taxon consisting of several thousand individuals that persist on ~8 km2 of alkaline soil. METHODS: We compared genetic variation among 11 varieties of A. lentiginosus differing in range size using a genotyping by sequencing (GBS) approach, which generated 11,475 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We characterized genetic structure among subpopulations of A. lentiginosus var. piscinensis using a second GBS data set of 7274 SNPs and explored associations between genetic structure and environmental variation. KEY RESULTS: We found no association between genetic variation and range size among varieties of A. lentiginosus. Additionally, despite the extremely small range of A. lentiginosus var. piscinensis, we report a well-defined genetic structure among subpopulations associated with microhabitat variation in soil composition. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that fine scale genetic structure may exist within other rare Astragalus taxa and that rarity does not preclude the maintenance of genetic diversity in this genus.

Resource stability and geographic isolation are associated with genome divergence in western Palearctic crossbills.

While many conifers produce annually variable seed crops, serotinous species (which hold seeds in cones for multiple years) represent unusually stable food resources for seed predators. Such stability is conducive to residency and potentially population divergence of consumers as exemplified by the Cassia crossbill (Loxia sinesciuris) in North America. We used genotyping by sequencing (GBS) to test whether three Mediterranean subspecies of common crossbills (L. curvirostra) associated with the serotinous Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) were more genetically distinct than European crossbills associated with nonserotinous conifers. We assembled a Cassia crossbill draft genome as a reference for mapping GBS reads and as a first step towards a more contiguous genome assembly. We found clear patterns of genetic divergence for each of the P. halepensis-associated subspecies. Geographic isolation, as promoted by resource stability and residency, is associated with genetic divergence of two of these subspecies. However, geographic isolation cannot account for divergence of L. c. hispana. Instead, resource stability likely contributed to divergence by reducing dispersal and increasing resource competition that may limit breeding by immigrants. In contrast, we found no differentiation among common crossbills associated with less stable resources, and only slight differentiation between common crossbills and parrot crossbills (L. pytyopsittacus). The substantial morphological divergence between common and parrot crossbills has likely originated or been maintained by selection despite gene flow generated by spatiotemporal resource fluctuation. Our results indicate that phenological as well as morphological characteristics of conifers have influenced crossbill diversification, and suggest a possible link between resource stability and population divergence.

Fine-scale genetic structure among greater sage-grouse leks in central Nevada.

BACKGROUND: Mating systems that reduce dispersal and lead to non-random mating might increase the potential for genetic structure to arise at fine geographic scales. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have a lek-based mating system and exhibit high site fidelity and skewed mating ratios. We quantified population structure by analyzing variation at 27,866 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 140 males from ten leks (within five lek complexes) occurring in a small geographic region in central Nevada. RESULTS: Lek complexes, and to a lesser extent individual leks, formed statistically identifiable clusters in ordination analyses, providing evidence for fine-scale geographic genetic differentiation. Lek geography predicted genetic differentiation even at a small geographic scale, which could be sharpened by strong site fidelity. Relatedness was also higher among individuals within lek complexes (and leks), suggesting that reproductive skew, where few males participate in most of the successful matings, could also potentially contribute to genetic differentiation. Models incorporating a habitat resistance surface as a proxy for potentially reduced movement due to landscape features indicated that both geographic distance and habitat suitability (i.e. preferred habitat) predicted genetic structure, with no significant effect of man-made barriers to movement (i.e. power lines and roads). Finally, we illustrate how data sets containing fewer loci (<4000) had less statistical precision and failed to detect the full degree of genetic structure. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that habitat features and lek site geography of sage-grouse shape fine scale genetic structure, and highlight how larger data sets can have increased precision and accuracy for quantifying ecologically relevant genetic structure over small geographic scales.

Intraspecific phytochemical variation shapes community and population structure for specialist caterpillars.

Chemically mediated plant-herbivore interactions contribute to the diversity of terrestrial communities and the diversification of plants and insects. While our understanding of the processes affecting community structure and evolutionary diversification has grown, few studies have investigated how trait variation shapes genetic and species diversity simultaneously in a tropical ecosystem. We investigated secondary metabolite variation among subpopulations of a single plant species, Piper kelleyi (Piperaceae), using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), to understand associations between plant phytochemistry and host-specialized caterpillars in the genus Eois (Geometridae: Larentiinae) and associated parasitoid wasps and flies. In addition, we used a genotyping-by-sequencing approach to examine the genetic structure of one abundant caterpillar species, Eois encina, in relation to host phytochemical variation. We found substantive concentration differences among three major secondary metabolites, and these differences in chemistry predicted caterpillar and parasitoid community structure among host plant populations. Furthermore, E. encina populations located at high elevations were genetically different from other populations. They fed on plants containing high concentrations of prenylated benzoic acid. Thus, phytochemistry potentially shapes caterpillar and wasp community composition and geographic variation in species interactions, both of which can contribute to diversification of plants and insects.

Genome divergence and diversification within a geographic mosaic of coevolution.

Despite substantial interest in coevolution's role in diversification, examples of coevolution contributing to speciation have been elusive. Here, we build upon past studies that have shown both coevolution between South Hills crossbills and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), and high levels of reproductive isolation between South Hills crossbills and other ecotypes in the North American red crossbill (Loxia curvirostra) complex. We used genotyping by sequencing to generate population genomic data and applied phylogenetic and population genetic analyses to characterize the genetic structure within and among nine of the ecotypes. Although genome-wide divergence was slight between ecotypes (FST  = 0.011-0.035), we found evidence of relative genetic differentiation (as measured by FST ) between and genetic cohesiveness within many of them. As expected for nomadic and opportunistic breeders, we detected no evidence of isolation by distance. The one sedentary ecotype, the South Hills crossbill, was genetically most distinct because of elevated divergence at a small number of loci rather than pronounced overall genome-wide divergence. These findings suggest that mechanisms related to recent local coevolution between South Hills crossbills and lodgepole pine (e.g. strong resource-based density dependence limiting gene flow) have been associated with genome divergence in the face of gene flow. Our results further characterize a striking example of coevolution driving speciation within perhaps as little as 6000 years.

Vertical stratification of the foliar fungal community in the world's tallest trees.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The aboveground tissues of plants host numerous, ecologically important fungi, yet patterns in the spatial distribution of these fungi remain little known. Forest canopies in particular are vast reservoirs of fungal diversity, but intracrown variation in fungal communities has rarely been explored. Knowledge of how fungi are distributed throughout tree crowns will contribute to our understanding of interactions between fungi and their host trees and is a first step toward investigating drivers of community assembly for plant-associated fungi. Here we describe spatial patterns in fungal diversity within crowns of the world's tallest trees, coast redwoods (Sequoia sempervirens). METHODS: We took a culture-independent approach, using the Illumina MiSeq platform, to characterize the fungal assemblage at multiple heights within the crown across the geographical range of the coast redwood. KEY RESULTS: Within each tree surveyed, we uncovered evidence for vertical stratification in the fungal community; different portions of the tree crown harbored different assemblages of fungi. We also report between-tree variation in the fungal community within redwoods. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest the potential for vertical stratification of fungal communities in the crowns of other tall tree species and should prompt future study of the factors giving rise to this stratification.

Highly variable reproductive isolation among pairs of Catostomus species.

Hybridization between diverged taxa tests the strength of reproductive isolation and can therefore reveal mechanisms of reproductive isolation. However, it remains unclear how consistent reproductive isolation is across species' ranges and to what extent reproductive isolation might remain polymorphic as species diverge. To address these questions, we compared outcomes of hybridization across species pairs of Catostomus fishes in three rivers in the Upper Colorado River basin, where an introduced species, C. commersoni, hybridizes with at least two native species, C. discobolus and C. latipinnis. We observed substantial heterogeneity in outcomes of hybridization, both between species pairs and across geographically separate rivers within each species pair. We also observed hybridization of additional related species with our focal species, suggesting that reproductive isolation in this group involves interactions of multiple evolutionary and ecological factors. These findings suggest that a better understanding of the determinants of variation in reproductive isolation is needed and that studies of reproductive isolation in hybrids should consider how the dynamics and mechanisms of reproductive isolation vary over ecological space and over evolutionary time. Our results also have implications for the conservation and management of native catostomids in the Colorado River basin. Heterogeneity in outcomes of hybridization suggests that the threat posed by hybridization and genetic introgression to the persistence of native species probably varies with extent of reproductive isolation, both across rivers and across species pairs.

Experimental evidence for ecological selection on genome variation in the wild.

Understanding natural selection's effect on genetic variation is a major goal in biology, but the genome-scale consequences of contemporary selection are not well known. In a release and recapture field experiment we transplanted stick insects to native and novel host plants and directly measured allele frequency changes within a generation at 186,576 genetic loci. We observed substantial, genome-wide allele frequency changes during the experiment, most of which could be attributed to random mortality (genetic drift). However, we also documented that selection affected multiple genetic loci distributed across the genome, particularly in transplants to the novel host. Host-associated selection affecting the genome acted on both a known colour-pattern trait as well as other (unmeasured) phenotypes. We also found evidence that selection associated with elevation affected genome variation, although our experiment was not designed to test this. Our results illustrate how genomic data can identify previously underappreciated ecological sources and phenotypic targets of selection.

Genome-wide association mapping of phenotypic traits subject to a range of intensities of natural selection in Timema cristinae.

The genetic architecture of adaptive traits can reflect the evolutionary history of populations and also shape divergence among populations. Despite this central role in evolution, relatively little is known regarding the genetic architecture of adaptive traits in nature, particularly for traits subject to known selection intensities. Here we quantitatively describe the genetic architecture of traits that are subject to known intensities of differential selection between host plant species in Timema cristinae stick insects. Specifically, we used phenotypic measurements of 10 traits and 211,004 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to conduct multilocus genome-wide association mapping. We identified a modest number of SNPs that were associated with traits and sometimes explained a large proportion of trait variation. These SNPs varied in their strength of association with traits, and both major and minor effect loci were discovered. However, we found no relationship between variation in levels of divergence among traits in nature and variation in parameters describing the genetic architecture of those same traits. Our results provide a first step toward identifying loci underlying adaptation in T. cristinae. Future studies will examine the genomic location, population differentiation, and response to selection of the trait-associated SNPs described here.

Environment predicts the maintenance of reproductive isolation in a mosaic hybrid zone of rubber rabbitbrush.

Widely distributed plants of western North America experience divergent selection across environmental gradients, have complex histories shaped by biogeographic barriers and distributional shifts and often illustrate continuums of reproductive isolation. Rubber rabbitbrush (Ericameria nauseosa) is a foundational shrub species that occurs across diverse environments of western North America. Its remarkable phenotypic diversity is currently ascribed to two subspecies-Ericameria nauseosa nauseosa and Ericameria nauseosa consimilis-and 22 named varieties. To understand how genetic variation is partitioned across subspecies, varieties, and environments, we used high throughput sequencing of reduced representation libraries. We found clear evidence for divergence between the two subspecies, despite largely sympatric distributions. Numerous locations exhibiting admixed ancestry were not geographically localized but were widely distributed across a mosaic hybrid zone. The occurrence of hybrid and subspecific ancestries was strongly predicted by environmental variables as well as the proximity to major ecotones between ecoregions. Although this repeatability illustrates the importance of environmental factors in shaping reproductive isolation, variability in the prevalence of hybridization also indicates these factors likely differ across ecological contexts. There was mixed evidence for the evolutionary cohesiveness of varieties, but several genetically distinct and narrow endemic varieties exhibited admixed subspecific ancestries, hinting at the possibility for transgressive hybridization to contribute to phenotypic novelty and the colonization of new environments in E. nauseosa.

Evolution repeats itself in replicate long-term studies in the wild.

The extent to which evolution is repeatable remains debated. Here, we study changes over time in the frequency of cryptic color-pattern morphs in 10 replicate long-term field studies of a stick insect, each spanning at least a decade (across 30 years of total data). We find predictable "up-and-down" fluctuations in stripe frequency in all populations, representing repeatable evolutionary dynamics based on standing genetic variation. A field experiment demonstrates that these fluctuations involve negative frequency-dependent natural selection (NFDS). These fluctuations rely on demographic and selective variability that pushes populations away from equilibrium, such that they can reliably move back toward it via NFDS. Last, we show that the origin of new cryptic forms is associated with multiple structural genomic variants such that which mutations arise affects evolution at larger temporal scales. Thus, evolution from existing variation is predictable and repeatable, but mutation adds complexity even for traits evolving deterministically under natural selection.