Clinical impact of pancreatic steatosis measured by CT on the risk of post-ERCP pancreatitis: a multicenter prospective trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Pancreatic steatosis (PS) may be a risk factor for acute pancreatitis. Whether it is also a risk factor for post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) has not been evaluated. This study aimed to determine the impact of PS on PEP development. METHODS: This multicenter prospective trial enrolled 786 consecutive patients who underwent contrast-enhanced abdominal CT and subsequent first-time ERCP. PS was evaluated based on pancreatic attenuation on unenhanced CT images. The risk of PS for the development of PEP was evaluated using a logistic regression model. RESULTS: Of 527 patients included in the study, 157 (29.8%) had PS and 370 (70.2%) did not. At 24 hours after ERCP, there was a significant difference in the PEP identified in 22 patients (14.0%) in the PS group and 23 patients (6.2%) in the "no PS" (NPS) group (P = .017). Diabetes and hypertension were more common in the PS group than in the NPS group; no differences in dyslipidemia were found. Patients with PS had a higher risk for the development of PEP than those with NPS (odds ratio, 2.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-4.03). No other variables were identified as risk factors for PEP. CONCLUSIONS: PS is a significant risk factor for PEP for which preventive measures should be considered. Standardized measurement protocols to assess PS by CT are needed. (Clinical trial registration number: KCT0006068.).

A comparison of novel electrocautery-enhanced lumen-apposing metal stents and plastic stents in EUS-guided drainage of infected walled-off necrosis: A multicenter randomized study.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Although lumen-apposing metal stents (LAMSs) have been increasingly used for walled-off necrosis (WON), their advantages over plastic stents (PS) in infected WON are unclear. We investigated the safety and efficacy of novel electrocautery-enhanced LAMS (EC-LAMS) for managing infected WON. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients who underwent endoscopic ultrasound-guided WON drainage were randomly assigned to the LAMS or PS groups. The primary outcome was the total number of direct endoscopic necrosectomy (DEN) procedures required to achieve clinical success. The secondary outcomes included technical success, clinical success, and adverse event occurrence. RESULTS: Forty-six patients were divided into the LAMS or PS groups (n=23 each). The total number of DEN procedures did not differ significantly between the PS (four procedures, interquartile range [IQR] 2.5-5.0) and LAMS groups (nine procedures, IQR: 8.0-9.0) (P=0.07). The LAMS group demonstrated a significantly higher clinical success rate than the PS group based on intention-to-treat analysis (100% vs. 73.9%, P=0.03) at 8 weeks but not at 4 weeks. No significant bleeding events were reported in the LAMS group, and one was reported in the PS group. CONCLUSIONS: We found no significant difference in the total number of DEN procedures between LAMS and PS for managing infected WON. The only statistically significant finding was a higher clinical success rate at 8 weeks for patients treated with EC-LAMS. The use of EC-LAMS did not result in any adverse events, such as bleeding or buried LAMS syndrome, within the study duration.

Comparison of a Polysaccharide Hemostatic Powder and Conventional Therapy for Peptic Ulcer Bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hemostatic powders have been clinically used in the treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding. We investigated the non-inferiority of a polysaccharide hemostatic powder (PHP), compared with conventional endoscopic treatments, for peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). METHODS: This study was a prospective multi-center, randomized, open-label, controlled trial at 4 referral institutions. We consecutively enrolled patients who had undergone emergency endoscopy for PUB. The patients were randomly assigned to either a PHP or conventional treatment group. In the PHP group, diluted epinephrine was injected, and the powder was applied as a spray. Conventional endoscopic treatment included the use of electrical coagulation or hemoclipping after injection of diluted epinephrine. RESULTS: Between July 2017 and May 2021, 216 patients were enrolled in this study (PHP group, 105; control group, 111). Initial hemostasis was achieved in 92 of 105 patients (87.6%) in the PHP group and 96 of 111 patients (86.5%) in the conventional treatment group. Re-bleeding did not differ between the 2 groups. In subgroup analysis, the initial hemostasis failure rate in the conventional treatment group was 13.6% for Forrest IIa cases; however, there was no initial hemostasis failure in the PHP group (P = .023). Large ulcer size (≥15 mm) and chronic kidney disease with dialysis were independent risk factors for re-bleeding at 30 days. No adverse events were associated with PHP use. CONCLUSIONS: PHP is not inferior to conventional treatments and could be useful in initial endoscopic treatment for PUB. Further studies are needed to confirm the re-bleeding rate of PHP. CLINICALTRIALS: gov, Number: NCT02717416).

Developing Operational Definitions Related to Helicobacter pylori Eradication Therapy.

BACKGROUND: The lack of well-established operational definitions is a major limitation of Helicobacter pylori eradication studies that use secondary databases. We aimed to develop and validate operational definitions related to H. pylori eradication therapy. METHODS: Operational definitions were developed by analyzing a nationwide H. pylori eradication registry and validated using real-world data from hospital medical records. The primary endpoint was the sensitivity of the operational definitions in identifying individuals who received H. pylori eradication therapy. The secondary endpoint was the sensitivity and specificity of the operational definition in identifying successful H. pylori eradication therapy. RESULTS: H. pylori eradication therapy was defined as a prescription for one of the following combinations: 1) proton pump inhibitor (PPI) + amoxicillin + clarithromycin, 2) PPI + amoxicillin + metronidazole, 3) PPI + metronidazole + tetracycline, 4) PPI + amoxicillin + levofloxacin, 5) PPI + amoxicillin + moxifloxacin, or 6) PPI + amoxicillin + rifabutin. In the validation set, the sensitivity of the operational definition for identifying individuals who received H. pylori eradication therapy was 99.7% and 99.8% for the first- and second-line therapies, respectively. Operational definition to determine success or failure of the H. pylori eradication therapy was developed based on a confirmatory test and the prescription of rescue therapy. The sensitivity and specificity of the operational definition for predicting successful eradication were 97.6% and 91.4%, respectively, in first-line therapy and 98.6% and 54.8%, respectively, in second-line therapy. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated operational definitions related to H. pylori eradication therapy. These definitions will help researchers perform various H. pylori eradication-related studies using secondary databases.

Sample Collection Methods in Upper Gastrointestinal Research.

In recent years, significant translational research advances have been made in the upper gastrointestinal (GI) research field. Endoscopic evaluation is a reasonable option for acquiring upper GI tissue for research purposes because it has minimal risk and can be applied to unresectable gastric cancer. The optimal number of biopsy samples and sample storage is crucial and might influence results. Furthermore, the methods for sample acquisition can be applied differently according to the research purpose; however, there have been few reports on methods for sample collection from endoscopic biopsies. In this review, we suggested a protocol for collecting study samples for upper GI research, including microbiome, DNA, RNA, protein, single-cell RNA sequencing, and organoid culture, through a comprehensive literature review. For microbiome analysis, one or two pieces of biopsied material obtained using standard endoscopic forceps may be sufficient. Additionally, 5 mL of gastric fluid and 3-4 mL of saliva is recommended for microbiome analyses. At least one gastric biopsy tissue is necessary for most DNA or RNA analyses, while proteomics analysis may require at least 2-3 biopsy tissues. Single cell-RNA sequencing requires at least 3-5 tissues and additional 1-2 tissues, if possible. For successful organoid culture, multiple sampling is necessary to improve the quality of specimens.

Serrated Polyps and the Risk of Metachronous Colorectal Advanced Neoplasia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Surveillance recommendations for serrated polyps (SPs) are based on insufficient evidence. We aimed to evaluate the risk of metachronous advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACRN) associated with SPs. METHODS: We searched all relevant studies published through August 2020 that examined the risk of SPs for developing metachronous lesions. We performed meta-analyses of the risk of metachronous ACRN or colorectal cancer (CRC) between patients with SPs (or sessile serrated lesions [SSLs]) alone and those with conventional adenomas alone, and between patients with synchronous SPs (or SSLs) and conventional adenomas and those with conventional adenomas alone. RESULTS: Eleven studies with 1,079,315 patients were included in the meta-analysis. No significant differences in the risks of metachronous ACRN and CRC were found between the SPs alone and conventional adenomas alone groups (odds ratio [OR] [95% confidence interval [CI]]: ACRN, 0.70 [0.27-1.82]; CRC, 0.74 [0.47-1.14]). The risks were similar between SSLs alone and conventional adenomas alone (OR [95% CI]: ACRN, 0.91 [0.23-3.63]; CRC, 1.11 [0.42-2.97]). Significant heterogeneity was identified in these comparisons. Synchronous SPs (or SSLs) and high-risk adenomas (HRAs) had a higher risk of metachronous ACRN than HRAs alone (OR [95% CI]: SPs+HRAs, 1.64 [1.21-2.24]; SSLs+HRAs, 3.10 [1.92-4.99]); however, there was no difference in the risk between synchronous SPs (or SSLs) and low-risk adenomas and low-risk adenomas alone. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this meta-analysis support the current guidelines, which recommend similar surveillance intervals for SSLs and conventional adenomas. Patients with synchronous SPs (or SSLs) and HRAs appear to be at an increased risk of metachronous ACRN, and further studies are needed to determine whether they require more intensive surveillance.

The Associations of Dietary Intake of High Sodium and Low Zinc with Gastric Cancer Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study in Korea.

Sodium and zinc display opposite effects on immune cells, such as regulatory T cells (Tregs) and T helper 17 cells (Th17), resulting in an altered immune response. Immune cells have a pivotal role in regulating tumor progression, which may affect gastric cancer (GC) mortality. Thus, this cohort study investigated the associations between the combination of sodium and zinc intake and GC mortality and whether these associations differ by histological type by following up deaths of GC cases in Korea. A total of 490 patients with GC were enrolled between 2002 and 2006. Survival or death was prospectively followed up until December 31, 2016. Finally, 300 patients with the two main histological types of GC were included; 99 GC deaths occurred during a median follow-up period of 7.1 years. Patients with high sodium and low zinc intake had a significantly higher GC mortality than those with low sodium and high zinc intake (hazard ratio [HR], 2.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-3.93). However, no significant association was found between the histological types of GC. In conclusion, we found that high sodium and low zinc intake may worsen the survival rate of patients with GC.

7-day versus 14-day tegoprazan-based triple therapy to treat Helicobacter pylori infection: Real-world evidence.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Potassium-competitive acid blockers (P-CABs) can be used to eradicate Helicobacter pylori infection. We aimed to evaluate the impact of treatment duration (7 vs 14 days) on successful H. pylori eradication with P-CAB-based triple therapy in Korea, where clarithromycin resistance rate is high. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the data of patients who received first-line treatment for H. pylori infection with tegoprazan-based triple therapy (50 mg tegoprazan + 1000 mg amoxicillin + 500 mg clarithromycin twice daily for 1 or 2 weeks). The primary endpoint was the eradication rate in intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis. RESULTS: Of the 948 patients included in the study, 435 and 513 received 7-day and 14-day tegoprazan-based triple therapy, respectively. The eradication rate was higher in the 14-day therapy group than in the 7-day therapy group (ITT, 63.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 59.3-68.3%] vs 78.6% [95% CI, 74.9-81.9%], respectively, P < 0.001; per-protocol, 70.5% [95% CI, 65.8-74.8%] vs 85.1% [81.7-88.1%], respectively, P < 0.001). Overall adverse event rates did not differ between the two groups. Although six patients in the 14-day treatment group discontinued the prescribed medications due to adverse events, four of them (67%) discontinued the medication within 4 days. CONCLUSIONS: The 14-day tegoprazan-based triple therapy showed a superior eradication rate and acceptable adverse events compared with the 7-day tegoprazan-based triple therapy. A 14-day treatment regimen may be required when H. pylori infection is treated with tegoprazan-based triple therapy in regions with high clarithromycin resistance.

Impact of antiplatelet agents and anticoagulants on the performance of fecal immunochemical tests: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Antithrombotic agents may increase the bleeding tendency and affect the performance of fecal immunochemical test (FIT). We aimed to evaluate the impact of antithrombotic agents on the performance of FIT through a systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: All relevant studies published between January 1980 and September 2020 that examined the diagnostic performance of FIT were searched through MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases. We performed a meta-analysis for the positive predictive value (PPV) of FIT for detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACRN) or colorectal cancer (CRC) according to the administration of antithrombotic agents including aspirin, antiplatelet agents, and oral anticoagulants (OACs). RESULTS: Thirteen studies with 27,518 patients were included. Of these, 11 studies with data required for the calculation of pooled PPV were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled PPV of FIT for detecting ACRN was significantly lower in antithrombotic agent users than in non-users (odds ratio [OR] [95% confidence interval [CI]]: aspirin, 0.82 [0.68-0.99]; antiplatelet agents, 0.82 [0.69-0.96]; OACs, 0.66 [0.52-0.84]). For detecting CRC, antithrombotic agent use tended to be associated with a reduced PPV (aspirin, 0.76 [0.51-1.14]; antiplatelet agents, 0.73 [0.52-1.02]; OACs, 0.60 [0.25-1.44]). In the subgroup analysis, a FIT cutoff value of 15 µg Hb/g feces tended to be associated with lower PPVs compared to a value of 20 µg Hb/g feces in antithrombotic agent users. CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin, antiplatelet agents, and OACs significantly lowered the PPV of FIT for detecting ACRN. These drugs may increase the false-positive of FIT.

Impact of pancreatic fat on the risk of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Fatty pancreas is a potential risk factor for acute pancreatitis; however, whether it is also a risk factor for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis (PEP) has not been evaluated. We aimed to determine the impact of fatty pancreas on the development of PEP. METHODS: We analyzed the data of patients who underwent abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan and sequential therapeutic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Fatty change in the pancreas was evaluated based on pancreatic attenuation of unenhanced image on CT scan. The risk of fatty pancreas for the development of PEP was evaluated using a logistic regression model. RESULTS: Of a total of 858 patients included in the study, 354 (41.3%) had fatty pancreas, while 504 (58.7%) did not have fatty pancreas. PEP developed in 28 patients (7.9%) in the fatty pancreas group and in 13 patients (2.6%) in the no fatty pancreas group. Fatty pancreas was significantly associated with the development of PEP (odds ratio [OR] [95% confidence interval [CI]] 2.38 [1.16-4.87]). A history of acute pancreatitis, female sex, difficult cannulation, and endoscopic papillary balloon dilation were also risk factors for the development of PEP. The risk for moderate-to-severe PEP development tended to be higher in the fatty pancreas group than in the no fatty pancreas group (OR [95% CI] 5.61 [0.63-49.62]). CONCLUSIONS: Fatty pancreas is a significant risk factor for the development of PEP. Clinicians need to be aware of the risk of fatty pancreas for the development of PEP prior to performing ERCP.

Pre- and post-procedure risk prediction models for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis (PEP) is the most common serious adverse event. Given recent endoscopic advances, we aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for PEP using the latest clinical database. METHODS: We analyzed the data of patients with naïve papilla who underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Pre-ERCP and post-ERCP risk prediction models for PEP were developed using logistic regression analysis. Patients were classified into low- (0 points), intermediate- (1-2 points), and high-risk (≥ 3 points) groups according to point scores. RESULTS: We included 760 and 735 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The incidence of PEP was 5.5% in the derivation cohort and 3.9% in the validation cohort. Age ≤ 65 (1 point), female sex (1 point), acute pancreatitis history (2 points), malignant biliary obstruction (2 points [pre-ERCP model] or 1 point [post-ERCP model]), and pancreatic sphincterotomy (2 points, post-ERCP model only) were independent risk factors. In the validation cohort, the high-risk group (≥ 3 points) had a significantly higher risk of PEP compared to the low- or intermediate-risk groups under the post-ERCP risk prediction model (low: 2.0%; intermediate: 3.4%; high: 18.4%), while there was no significant between-group difference under the pre-ERCP risk prediction model (low: 2.2%; intermediate: 3.8%; high: 6.9%). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated pre-ERCP and post-ERCP risk prediction models. In the latter, the high-risk group had a higher risk of PEP development than the low- or intermediate-risk groups. Our study findings will help clinicians stratify patient risk for the development of PEP.

Long-term outcomes and predictors of adverse events of EUS-guided hepatico-gastrostomy for malignant biliary obstruction: Multicenter, retrospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided hepaticogastrostomy (HGS) may be a feasible and useful alternative in patients with malignant biliary obstruction (MBO) after failed endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). To date, the risk factors for adverse events (AEs) and long-term outcomes of EUS-HGS have not been fully explored according to stent type. Therefore, we evaluated potential risk factors for AEs and long-term outcomes of EUS-HGS. METHODS: In total, 120 patients who underwent EUS-HGS were retrospectively reviewed. A multivariate analysis through Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression model was used to identify the risk factors for stent dysfunction and AEs, respectively. Stent patency and patient survival were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier plots with a log-rank test for each stent. RESULTS: The technical and clinical success rates were 96.2% (102/106) and 83.0% (88/106). The median duration of stent patency was longer in self-expandable metal stents (SEMS) compared to plastic stents (PS) (158 vs. 108 days). Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that the type of stent was not associated with stent patency (Hazard ratios [HR] 0.997, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.525-1.896]) or overall survival. In addition, multivariate analysis indicated that hilar MBO significantly associated with stent dysfunction (HR, 2.340; 95% CI, 1.028-5.326, p = 0.043) and late AEs. CONCLUSIONS: Given the lower incidence of AEs and better long-term outcomes of EUS-HGS, it can be considered a safe alternative to ERCP or percutaneous approaches regardless of which stent is used. Furthermore, hilar MBO was established as a potential risk factor for stent dysfunction and late AEs.

Association between proton pump inhibitor use and gastric cancer: a population-based cohort study using two different types of nationwide databases in Korea.

OBJECTIVE: The association between proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use and gastric cancer related to Helicobacter pylori eradication has not been fully investigated in geographical regions with high risk of gastric cancer. We aimed to evaluate the association between PPIs and gastric cancer in Korea. DESIGN: This study analysed the original and common data model versions of the Korean National Health Insurance Service database from 2002 to 2013. We compared the incidence rates of gastric cancer after 1-year drug exposure, between new users of PPIs and other drugs excluding PPIs, by Cox proportional hazards model. We also analysed the incidence of gastric cancer among PPI users after H. pylori eradication. RESULTS: The analysis included 11 741 patients in matched PPI and non-PPI cohorts after large-scale propensity score matching. During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, PPI use was associated with a 2.37-fold increased incidence of gastric cancer (PPI≥30 days vs non-PPI; 118/51 813 person-years vs 40/49 729 person-years; HR 2.37, 95% CI 1.56 to 3.68, p=0.001). The incidence rates of gastric cancer showed an increasing trend parallel to the duration of PPI use. In H. pylori-eradicated subjects, the incidence of gastric cancer was significantly associated with PPI use over 180 days compared with the non-PPI group (PPI≥180 days vs non-PPI; 30/12 470 person-years vs 9/7814 person-years; HR 2.22, 95% CI 1.05 to 4.67, p=0.036). CONCLUSION: PPI use was associated with gastric cancer, regardless of H. pylori eradication status. Long-term PPIs should be used with caution in high-risk regions for gastric cancer.

Polysaccharide hemostatic powder to prevent bleeding after endoscopic submucosal dissection in high risk patients: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND : Bleeding after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is a severe adverse event. Several methods to prevent post-ESD bleeding (PEB) have been introduced; however, they have not been widely used because of technical difficulties. We aimed to investigate whether polysaccharide hemostatic powder (PHP), which is very easy to apply, can prevent early post-ESD bleeding, especially in patients with a high risk of post-ESD bleeding. METHODS : This was a prospective, multicenter, randomized, open-label, controlled trial. Patients with a high risk for post-ESD bleeding were enrolled. Patients with gastric neoplasms in whom the resected specimen size was expected to be > 40 mm and those who were regularly taking antithrombotic agents were defined as high risk patients. Patients were randomly assigned to the PHP or control groups. RESULTS: Between May 2017 and September 2018, 143 patients were enrolled (PHP group, 73; control group, 70). The total post-ESD bleeding rate was 6.3 % (PHP group, 5.5 % vs. control group, 7.1 %; P = 0.74). There was no bleeding within 7 days after ESD in the PHP group. Continued antithrombotic use was an independent risk factor for post-ESD bleeding. In subgroup analysis excluding the patients who continued to take antithrombotic agents (n = 129) during ESD, the rate of post-ESD bleeding tended to be lower in the PHP group than in the control group (0 % vs. 6.3 %; P = 0.06). CONCLUSION : PHP did not demonstrate a significant effect on the prevention of post-ESD bleeding in this study. Further larger scale, randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm this.

Efficacy of an artificial neural network algorithm based on thick-slab magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography images for the automated diagnosis of common bile duct stones.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) can accurately diagnose common bile duct (CBD) stones but is laborious to interpret. We developed an artificial neural network (ANN) capable of automatically assisting physicians with the diagnosis of CBD stones. This study aimed to evaluate the ANN's diagnostic performance for detecting CBD stones in thick-slab MRCP images and identify clinical factors predictive of accurate diagnosis. METHODS: The presence of CBD stones was confirmed via direct visualization through endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). The absence of CBD stones was confirmed by either a negative endoscopic ultrasound accompanied by clinical improvements or negative findings on ERCP. Our base networks were constructed using state-of-the-art EfficientNet-B5 neural network models, which are widely used for image classification. RESULTS: In total, 3156 images were collected from 789 patients. Of these, 2628 images from 657 patients were used for training. An additional 1924 images from 481 patients were prospectively collected for validation. Across the entire prospective validation cohort, the ANN achieved a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and overall accuracy of 93.03%, 97.05%, 97.01%, 93.12%, and 95.01%, respectively. Similarly, a radiologist achieved a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and overall accuracy 91.16%, 93.25%, 93.22%, 90.20%, and 91.68%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, only bile duct diameter > 10 mm (odds ratio = 2.45, 95% confidence interval [1.08-6.07], P = 0.040) was related to ANN diagnostic accuracy. CONCLUSION: Our ANN algorithm automatically and quickly diagnoses CBD stones in thick-slab MRCP images, therein aiding physicians with optimizing clinical practice, such as whether to perform ERCP.

Optimization of the surveillance strategy in patients with colorectal adenomas: A combination of clinical parameters and index colonoscopy findings.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: In addition to index colonoscopy findings, demographic parameters including age are associated with the risk of metachronous advanced colorectal neoplasia. Here, we aimed to develop a risk scoring model for predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACRN) during surveillance using a combination of clinical factors and index colonoscopy findings. METHODS: Patients who underwent the removal of one or more adenomas and surveillance colonoscopy were included. A risk scoring model for ACRN was developed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Surveillance interval was determined as a time point exceeding 4% of the cumulative ACRN incidence in each risk group. RESULTS: Of 9591 participants, 4725 and 4866 were randomly allocated to the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, abdominal obesity, advanced adenoma, and ≥ 3 adenomas at index colonoscopy were identified as risk factors for metachronous ACRN. Based on the regression coefficients, point scores were assigned as follows: age, 1 point (per 1 year); abdominal obesity, 10 points; advanced adenoma, 10 points; and ≥ 3 adenomas, 15 points. Patients were classified into high-risk (≥ 80 points), moderate-risk (50-79 points), and low-risk (30-49 points) groups. In the validation cohort, the high-risk and moderate-risk groups showed a higher risk of ACRN than the low-risk group (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 7.11 [4.10-12.32] and 1.58 [1.09-2.30], respectively). Two-, 4-, and 5-year surveillance intervals were recommended for the high-risk, moderate-risk, and low-risk groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed model may facilitate effective risk stratification of ACRN during surveillance and the determination of appropriate surveillance intervals.

Bedside risk-scoring model for predicting 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing endoscopic band ligation for acute variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a fatal adverse event of cirrhosis, and endoscopic band ligation (EBL) is the standard treatment for AVB. We developed a novel bedside risk-scoring model to predict the 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing EBL for AVB. METHODS: Cox regression analysis was used to assess the relationship of clinical, biological, and endoscopic variables with the 6-week mortality risk after EBL in a derivation cohort (n = 1373). The primary outcome was the predictive accuracy of the new model for the 6-week mortality in the validation cohort. Moreover, we tested the adequacy of the mortality risk-based stratification and the discriminative performance of our new model in comparison with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease scores in the validation cohort (n = 200). RESULTS: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, five objective variables (use of beta-blockers, hepatocellular carcinoma, CTP class C, hypovolemic shock at initial presentation, and history of hepatic encephalopathy) were scored to generate a 12-point risk-prediction model. The model stratified the 6-week mortality risk in patients as low (3.5%), intermediate (21.1%), and high (53.4%) (P < 0.001). Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 6-week mortality showed that this model was a better prognostic indicator than the CTP class alone in the derivation (P < 0.001) and validation (P < 0.001) cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: A simplified scoring model with high potential for generalization refines the prediction of 6-week mortality in high-risk cirrhotic patients, thereby aiding the targeting and individualization of treatment strategies for decreasing the mortality rate.

Stratification of Postsurgical Computed Tomography Surveillance Based on the Extragastric Recurrence of Early Gastric Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To stratify the postsurgical computed tomography (CT) surveillance based on a risk-scoring system for predicting extragastric recurrence after surgical resection of early gastric cancer (EGC). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Postsurgical CT surveillance should not be routinely performed in all patients because of the low incidence of extragastric recurrence and potential risk of radiation exposure. METHODS: Data from 3162 patients who underwent surgical resection for EGC were reviewed to develop a risk-scoring system to predict extragastric recurrence. Risk scores were based on the predictive factors for extragastric recurrence, which were determined using Cox proportional hazard regression model. The risk-scoring system was validated by Uno censoring adjusted C-index. External validation was performed using an independent dataset (n = 430). RESULTS: The overall incidence of extragastric recurrence was 1.4% (44/3162). Five risk factors (lymph node metastasis, indications for endoscopic resection, male sex, positive lymphovascular invasion, and elevated macroscopic type), which were significantly associated with extragastric recurrence, were incorporated into the risk-scoring system, and the patients were categorized into 2 risk groups. The 10-year extragastric recurrence-free survival differed significantly between low- and high-risk groups (99.7% vs 96.5%; P < 0.001). The predictive accuracy of the risk-scoring system in the development cohort was 0.870 [Uno C-index; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.800-0.939]. Discrimination was good after internal (0.859) and external validation (0.782, 0.549-1.000). CONCLUSION: This risk-scoring system might be useful to predict extragastric recurrence of EGC after curative surgical resection. We suggest that postsurgical CT surveillance to detect extragastric recurrence should be avoided in the low-risk group.

Comparative systematic review and meta-analysis of 1- to 5-mm versus 6- to 9-mm adenomas on the risk of metachronous advanced colorectal neoplasia.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The current guidelines recommend the same surveillance interval for ≥3 nonadvanced adenomas (NAAs), without discriminating between diminutive (1-5 mm) and small (6-9 mm) adenomas. Additionally, the same surveillance interval is recommended for patients with ≤2 diminutive NAAs and those with ≤2 small NAAs. However, it is questionable whether these recommendations are appropriate. METHODS: We searched all relevant studies published through September 2019 that examined the risk of metachronous advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACRN) according to the size (diminutive vs small) and the number of adenomas found during an index colonoscopy. Low-risk adenomas (LRAs) were subclassified into 2 categories (LRA-1, ≤2 diminutive NAAs; and LRA-2, ≤2 small NAAs), and high-risk adenomas (HRAs) were subclassified into 3 categories (HRA-1, ≥3 diminutive NAAs; HRA-2, ≥3 small NAAs; and HRA-3, advanced adenoma). RESULTS: Eight studies involving 36,142 patients were evaluated. The LRA-2 group had a higher risk of metachronous ACRN than the LRA-1 group (risk ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23-1.81). Additionally, the HRA-2 and HRA-3 groups had a higher risk of metachronous ACRN than the HRA-1 group (hazard ratios [HRs], 1.51 [95% CI, 1.002-2.28] and 1.92 [95% CI, 1.11-3.33], respectively). However, there was no significant difference between the HRA-1 versus LRA-2 groups (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, .78-1.94). CONCLUSIONS: Among the HRA and LRA groups, those with diminutive NAAs had a lower risk of metachronous ACRN than those with small NAAs. We believe that clinical guidelines should consider extending the surveillance intervals in patients with diminutive NAAs only.

Impact of the timing of Helicobacter pylori eradication on the risk of development of metachronous lesions after treatment of early gastric cancer: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Helicobacter pylori eradication can reduce the risk of metachronous lesions after the treatment of early gastric cancer. We aimed to analyze the impact of the timing of H pylori eradication on metachronous recurrence. METHODS: Data of patients who underwent endoscopic resection or partial gastrectomy for early stage gastric cancer and received H pylori eradication therapy were obtained from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Patients were classified into 3 groups according to the timing of the prescription for H pylori eradication: preresection; within 1 year postresection; and >1 year postresection. RESULTS: Among 19,767 patients, 7452 and 12,315 underwent endoscopic resection and surgery, respectively. The 5-year cumulative incidence of metachronous lesions after endoscopic resection was 14.0% in the preresection group, 12.3% in the within 1 year postresection group, and 16.9% in the >1 year postresection group. Surgery was performed in 1.2% of the preresection group, 1.3% of the within 1 year postresection group, and 2.9% of the >1 year postresection group. The within 1 year postresection group had a lower risk of development of metachronous lesions than the >1 year postresection group (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: after endoscopic resection, 0.79 [0.65-0.95]; after surgery, 0.39 [0.28-0.53]). The risk of development of metachronous lesions did not differ between the preresection and within 1 year postresection groups. CONCLUSION: Prescription of H pylori eradication therapy within 1 year after gastric cancer treatment reduces the risk of development of metachronous gastric neoplasms compared with a late prescription of eradication therapy in patients undergoing endoscopic resection and those undergoing surgery.