Inferring the differences in incubation-period and generation-interval distributions of the Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2.

Estimating the differences in the incubation-period, serial-interval, and generation-interval distributions of SARS-CoV-2 variants is critical to understanding their transmission. However, the impact of epidemic dynamics is often neglected in estimating the timing of infection-for example, when an epidemic is growing exponentially, a cohort of infected individuals who developed symptoms at the same time are more likely to have been infected recently. Here, we reanalyze incubation-period and serial-interval data describing transmissions of the Delta and Omicron variants from the Netherlands at the end of December 2021. Previous analysis of the same dataset reported shorter mean observed incubation period (3.2 d vs. 4.4 d) and serial interval (3.5 d vs. 4.1 d) for the Omicron variant, but the number of infections caused by the Delta variant decreased during this period as the number of Omicron infections increased. When we account for growth-rate differences of two variants during the study period, we estimate similar mean incubation periods (3.8 to 4.5 d) for both variants but a shorter mean generation interval for the Omicron variant (3.0 d; 95% CI: 2.7 to 3.2 d) than for the Delta variant (3.8 d; 95% CI: 3.7 to 4.0 d). The differences in estimated generation intervals may be driven by the "network effect"-higher effective transmissibility of the Omicron variant can cause faster susceptible depletion among contact networks, which in turn prevents late transmission (therefore shortening realized generation intervals). Using up-to-date generation-interval distributions is critical to accurately estimating the reproduction advantage of the Omicron variant.

Long-term benefits of nonpharmaceutical interventions for endemic infections are shaped by respiratory pathogen dynamics.

COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including mask wearing, have proved highly effective at reducing the transmission of endemic infections. A key public health question is whether NPIs could continue to be implemented long term to reduce the ongoing burden from endemic pathogens. Here, we use epidemiological models to explore the impact of long-term NPIs on the dynamics of endemic infections. We find that the introduction of NPIs leads to a strong initial reduction in incidence, but this effect is transient: As susceptibility increases, epidemics return while NPIs are in place. For low R0 infections, these return epidemics are of reduced equilibrium incidence and epidemic peak size. For high R0 infections, return epidemics are of similar magnitude to pre-NPI outbreaks. Our results underline that managing ongoing susceptible buildup, e.g., with vaccination, remains an important long-term goal.

Forward-looking serial intervals correctly link epidemic growth to reproduction numbers.

The reproduction number R and the growth rate r are critical epidemiological quantities. They are linked by generation intervals, the time between infection and onward transmission. Because generation intervals are difficult to observe, epidemiologists often substitute serial intervals, the time between symptom onset in successive links in a transmission chain. Recent studies suggest that such substitution biases estimates of R based on r. Here we explore how these intervals vary over the course of an epidemic, and the implications for R estimation. Forward-looking serial intervals, measuring time forward from symptom onset of an infector, correctly describe the renewal process of symptomatic cases and therefore reliably link R with r. In contrast, backward-looking intervals, which measure time backward, and intrinsic intervals, which neglect population-level dynamics, give incorrect R estimates. Forward-looking intervals are affected both by epidemic dynamics and by censoring, changing in complex ways over the course of an epidemic. We present a heuristic method for addressing biases that arise from neglecting changes in serial intervals. We apply the method to early (21 January to February 8, 2020) serial interval-based estimates of R for the COVID-19 outbreak in China outside Hubei province; using improperly defined serial intervals in this context biases estimates of initial R by up to a factor of 2.6. This study demonstrates the importance of early contact tracing efforts and provides a framework for reassessing generation intervals, serial intervals, and R estimates for COVID-19.

Radiofrequency ablation for the treatment of great saphenous venous insufficiency using a newly developed VENISTAR catheter: A preliminary study.

OBJECTIVES: This study was aimed to assess the preliminary outcomes of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) using a newly developed catheter (VENISTAR) for the treatment of incompetent great saphenous veins (GSVs). METHODS: In this prospective observational study, endovenous RFA using a VENISTAR catheter was performed on 16 saphenous veins in 12 patients between August and November 2019. Patients' pre- and post-procedural data were recorded. Doppler ultrasound imaging and clinical evaluation were performed at 1 week and 1, 3, and 6 months to determine the efficacy and safety of the treatment. RESULTS: Technical success and complete closure of the targeted GSVs immediately after the procedure were observed in all 16 limbs (100%). However, one patient (one limb) was found to have partial occlusion without significant reflux after 1 week of follow-up. Kaplan-Meier analysis yielded a complete occlusion rate of 93% at 6 months of follow-up. The Venous Clinical Severity Scores at the time of all follow-up were significantly lower than those at baseline (3.3 ± 1.1 at baseline to 0.6 ± 0.6, 0.3 ± 0.6, 0.1 ± 0.4, and 0.2 ± 0.4 at 1 week and 1, 3, and 6 months, respectively) (p < .001). Mild post-procedural pain was noted in 7 and 4 limbs at 1 week and 1 month, respectively. Grade 1 ecchymosis over the ablated segment was noted in 5 (35.7%) of 14 limbs at 1-week follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Endovenous treatment of GSV insufficiency using a new VENISTAR radiofrequency catheter has been shown to be feasible, effective, and safe throughout the 6-month follow-up.

Long-Term Comparison of Esthetic Outcomes Between Hatchet and Transposition Flaps in Facial-Defect Reconstruction.

BACKGROUND: Transposition flaps are commonly used for facial-defect repair after wide excision of skin cancers. However, such repair often causes excessive tension at the donor site that can result in distortion of the adjacent area. The hatchet flap, a rotation-advancement flap, can prevent distortion by redistributing the donor site tension evenly to the recipient site. This study aims to compare the esthetic outcomes of the hatchet flap and transposition flap in facial-defect reconstruction. METHODS: We retrospectively included 50 patients who underwent facial reconstruction with the hatchet flap or transposition flap after excision of skin cancer. They were followed up for more than 6 months. At the last follow-up visit, the esthetic outcome was evaluated by subjective and objective assessments using the patients and observer scar assessment scale and Manchester scar scale. RESULTS: Thirty patients and 20 patients underwent reconstruction using the hatchet flap and the transposition flap, respectively. The total score from the patient and observer scar assessment scale was significantly lower in the hatchet flap group compared with the transposition flap group (p = 0.009). The Manchester scar scale showed a total score of 7.67 ± 2.2 for the hatchet flap and 9.95 ± 1.99 for the transposition flap: in the color (p < 0.001), distortion (p < 0.001), and texture (p < 0.02) categories, the hatchet flap yielded significantly better outcomes than the transposition flap. CONCLUSIONS: The hatchet flap had good esthetic outcome for facial reconstruction and could be a valuable option for reconstructing facial defects. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE IV: This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these evidence-based medicine ratings, please refer to Table of Contents or online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266.

Complete Preservation of Orbital Fat by Restoration of Attenuated Orbital Septa Using an Acellular Dermal Matrix in Lower Blepharoplasty.

BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that application of acellular dermal matrix (ADM) over the orbital septum overlying the herniated orbital fat to tighten and strengthen the attenuated orbital septum in lower blepharoplasty would allow successful repositioning of the herniated orbital fat within the bony orbit. METHODS: The author prospectively compared the cosmetic outcomes of lower blepharoplasty using ADM with standard blepharoplasty. We evaluated recurrence of eyelid bulging and tear trough deformity, volume of the lower periorbital region, and enophthalmos and eyelid droop 1 year after surgery. RESULTS: Twenty-two of the 24 enrolled patients completed the study. There was no significant difference in recurrence of eyelid bulging and tear trough deformity between standard blepharoplasty and blepharoplasty with ADM graft groups. In the standard blepharoplasty group, the volume of the lower periorbital region decreased significantly after surgery. In the blepharoplasty with ADM graft group, there was no significant change in the volume of the lower periorbital region after surgery. In the standard blepharoplasty group, there was no significant change in eyelid droop on either side after surgery. In the blepharoplasty with ADM graft group, the eyelid droop decreased significantly after surgery on the right side but showed no significant change on the left side. There was no significant change in enophthalmos after surgery for either group. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that ADM graft provided effective support for maintaining the replaced orbital fat in lower blepharoplasty. In the long-term, blepharoplasty with ADM graft might be effective in slowing development of age-related enophthalmos. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE IV: This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Evaluating the Safety and Effectiveness of Quick-Soluble Gelatin Sponge Particles for Genicular Artery Embolization for Chronic Knee Pain Associated with Osteoarthritis.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of genicular artery embolization (GAE) using quick-soluble gelatin sponge particles (QS-GSPs) to alleviate chronic knee pain associated with osteoarthritis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 71 patients (97 procedures, including 26 patients for both knees) who underwent GAE to treat osteoarthritic knee pain between August 2019 and January 2022. QS-GSPs were used for all the procedures. Technical success was defined as the embolization of at least 1 feeding artery. Clinical outcomes were evaluated using a 10-point visual analog scale (VAS). Clinical success was defined as a decrease in the VAS score of >50%. RESULTS: The technical success rate was 100% (97 of 97). The mean VAS scores at baseline, immediately after TAE, and at 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months after TAE were 6.3, 4.3, 5.0, 3.0, 2.9, 2.9, and 2.8, respectively. The clinical success rate was 72% (70 of 97 patients) at 6 months. No major adverse events were reported, and temporary skin color change (50.5%, 49 of 97) and hematoma at the puncture site (10.3%, 10 of 97) were observed. CONCLUSIONS: GAE using QS-GSPs had a high technical success rate and was considered safe. Clinical outcomes using QS-GSPs were comparable with those of existing materials.

Spontaneous resolution of long-standing choroidal effusion after glaucoma drainage implant surgery without significant visual deterioration : a case report.

BACKGROUND: Choroidal effusion is a common complication of glaucoma surgery. Although most cases of choroidal effusions resolve spontaneously with observation or medical management alone as intraocular pressure normalizes, surgical drainage might be needed in severe or persistent cases. Herein, we report a case of spontaneous resolution of long-standing severe choroidal effusion after Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation. CASE PRESENTATION: An 85-year-old man with uncontrolled primary open-angle glaucoma and medical history of chronic kidney disease underwent uneventful Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation. On postoperative day 8, transient hypotony occurred, and large 360° peripheral choroidal detachments developed. Although the intraocular pressure increased to normal levels on postoperative day 15, choroidal effusion did not resolve. Fundus examination over 8 months showed that the large choroidal effusion persisted despite a well-controlled intraocular pressure. Laboratory test performed at preoperatively and follow-up period revealed persistently elevated potassium and creatinine levels. On postoperative 9 months, the lesion resolved spontaneously without any surgical intervention. We found that the patient's creatinine level was normalized, pre-existing hyperkalemia was corrected, and accordingly his general condition was improved. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the underlying medical condition may be helpful in patients with persistent choroidal effusion of an unclear etiology following glaucoma filtering surgery.

Awareness-driven behavior changes can shift the shape of epidemics away from peaks and toward plateaus, shoulders, and oscillations.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 1,000,000 reported deaths globally, of which more than 200,000 have been reported in the United States as of October 1, 2020. Public health interventions have had significant impacts in reducing transmission and in averting even more deaths. Nonetheless, in many jurisdictions, the decline of cases and fatalities after apparent epidemic peaks has not been rapid. Instead, the asymmetric decline in cases appears, in most cases, to be consistent with plateau- or shoulder-like phenomena-a qualitative observation reinforced by a symmetry analysis of US state-level fatality data. Here we explore a model of fatality-driven awareness in which individual protective measures increase with death rates. In this model, fast increases to the peak are often followed by plateaus, shoulders, and lag-driven oscillations. The asymmetric shape of model-predicted incidence and fatality curves is consistent with observations from many jurisdictions. Yet, in contrast to model predictions, we find that population-level mobility metrics usually increased from low levels before fatalities reached an initial peak. We show that incorporating fatigue and long-term behavior change can reconcile the apparent premature relaxation of mobility reductions and help understand when post-peak dynamics are likely to lead to a resurgence of cases.

The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021-2022. Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains.

Predictors of long-term visual field outcome after an episode of acute primary angle closure.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the long-term visual field (VF) outcome and baseline factors associated with functional sequelae in patients who experienced an episode of acute primary angle closure (APAC) and underwent subsequent lens extraction. METHODS: Fifty patients (50 eyes) who experienced an APAC episode and underwent subsequent lens extraction at Chonnam National University Hospital were enrolled in this retrospective study. Patients underwent VF examinations after 1 year of an acute episode. They were classified into two groups based on whether they had significant VF defects or not. Demographic data were recorded, and baseline anterior-segment OCT (AS-OCT) images were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess baseline risk factors for presence of VF defects. RESULTS: Twenty-five (50%) eyes were found to have varied degree of VF defects after 1 year of an acute episode. Longer duration between the symptom onset and IOP lowering (p = 0.005), a higher presenting IOP (p = 0.014), and flat iris curvature (p = 0.037) at baseline AS-OCT measurement were significant predictors of VF loss. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) revealed that combination of these three potential baseline factors could predict the long-term VF outcome (AUC = 0.921). CONCLUSIONS: Patients exhibiting a long duration between symptom onset and IOP lowering, a high presenting IOP, and flat iris curvature were at a higher risk of visual impairment after an episode of APAC. The eyes with such features may require more careful follow-up after an episode of APAC.

High VEGF Concentrations Accelerate Human Trabecular Meshwork Fibrosis in a TAZ-Dependent Manner.

We aimed to investigate the effects of different concentrations of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) on the extracellular matrix (ECM) and fibrotic proteins in human trabecular meshwork (TM) cells. We also explored how the Yes-associated protein (YAP)/transcriptional co-activator with PDZ-binding motif (TAZ) signaling pathway modulates VEGF-induced fibrosis. We determined cross-linked actin network (CLAN) formation using TM cells. Changes in fibrotic and ECM protein expression were determined. High VEGF concentrations (10 and 30 ng/mL) increased TAZ and decreased p-TAZ/TAZ expression in TM cells. Western blotting and real-time PCR revealed no YAP expression changes. Fibrotic and ECM protein expression decreased at low VEGF concentrations (1 and 10 ρg/mL) and significantly increased at high VEGF concentrations (10 and 30 ng/mL). CLAN formation increased in TM cells treated with high VEGF concentrations. Moreover, TAZ inhibition by verteporfin (1 µM) rescued TM cells from high-VEGF-concentration-induced fibrosis. Low VEGF concentrations reduced fibrotic changes, whereas high VEGF concentrations accelerated fibrosis and CLAN formations in TM cells in a TAZ-dependent manner. These findings reflect the dose-dependent influences of VEGF on TM cells. Moreover, TAZ inhibition might be a therapeutic target for VEGF-induced TM dysfunction.

SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak Dynamics in an Isolated US Military Recruit Training Center With Rigorous Prevention Measures.

BACKGROUND: Marine recruits training at Parris Island experienced an unexpectedly high rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, despite preventive measures including a supervised, 2-week, pre-entry quarantine. We characterize SARS-CoV-2 transmission in this cohort. METHODS: Between May and November 2020, we monitored 2,469 unvaccinated, mostly male, Marine recruits prospectively during basic training. If participants tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) at the end of quarantine, they were transferred to the training site in segregated companies and underwent biweekly testing for 6 weeks. We assessed the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention measures on other respiratory infections with passive surveillance data, performed phylogenetic analysis, and modeled transmission dynamics and testing regimens. RESULTS: Preventive measures were associated with drastically lower rates of other respiratory illnesses. However, among the trainees, 1,107 (44.8%) tested SARS-CoV-2-positive, with either mild or no symptoms. Phylogenetic analysis of viral genomes from 580 participants revealed that all cases but one were linked to five independent introductions, each characterized by accumulation of mutations across and within companies, and similar viral isolates in individuals from the same company. Variation in company transmission rates (mean reproduction number R 0 ; 5.5 [95% confidence interval [CI], 5.0, 6.1]) could be accounted for by multiple initial cases within a company and superspreader events. Simulations indicate that frequent rapid-report testing with case isolation may minimize outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission of wild-type SARS-CoV-2 among Marine recruits was approximately twice that seen in the community. Insights from SARS-CoV-2 outbreak dynamics and mutations spread in a remote, congregate setting may inform effective mitigation strategies.

Safety and Efficacy of Intraperitoneal Paclitaxel Plus Intravenous Fluorouracil, Leucovorin, and Oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) for Gastric Cancer with Peritoneal Metastasis.

BACKGROUND: Peritoneal metastasis (PM) remains a major obstacle in the treatment of stage IV gastric cancer. This is a dose-escalation study of intraperitoneal (IP) paclitaxel combined with intravenous (IV) fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) to determine the recommended phase II dose in gastric cancer patients. METHODS: Patients with gastric adenocarcinoma and PM were enrolled. The recommended phase II dose of IP paclitaxel was determined using the standard "3 + 3" dose escalation with planned doses ranging from 40 to 100 mg/m2. IV FOLFOX was administered on the same day (oxaliplatin 100 mg/m2 (day 1), leucovorin 100 mg/m2 (day 1), fluorouracil 2,400 mg/m2 over 46 hours (day 1)). Both IP and IV regimens were repeated every 2 weeks. RESULTS: Among the 13 patients, there was no DLT at 40 and 60 mg/m2. Two patients had grade 3 febrile neutropenia at 80 mg/m2, and the recommended phase II dose was 60 mg/m2. Other patients underwent IP paclitaxel and FOLFOX without serious adverse events. Seven patients underwent second-look diagnostic laparoscopy, and the average change in PCI score was -7.0 ± 9.7. Conversion surgery rate was 23.1% (n = 3). The median overall survival was 16.6 months (95% confidence interval, 16.6-N/A), and progression-free survival was 9.6 months (95% confidence interval, 4.7-N/A). All adverse events were tolerable and manageable. CONCLUSIONS: The biweekly regimen of IP paclitaxel and FOLFOX is safe and the recommended dose of IP paclitaxel for a phase II trial is 60 mg/m2.

Fabrication of Colloidal Cesium Metal Halide (CsMX: M = Fe, Co, and Ni) Nanoparticles and Assessment of Their Thermodynamic Stability by DFT Calculations.

We synthesized colloidal cesium metal halide CsMX (M = Fe, Co, Ni; X = Cl, Br) nanoparticles (NPs) and assessed their crystal stability by density functional theory (DFT) calculations. We successfully synthesized Cs3FeCl5, Cs3FeBr5, Cs3CoCl5, Cs3CoBr5, CsNiCl3, and CsNiBr3 NPs. CsMX NPs with Fe and Co exhibited Cs3M1X5 and Cs2M1X4 structures depending on the reaction conditions; however, CsNiX NPs exhibited only the CsNiX3 structure. The differences in structural stability by central metal ions were explained using spin-polarized DFT calculations. The analysis revealed tetragonal Cs3M1X5 and orthorhombic Cs2M1X4 structures to have similar thermodynamic stabilities in the case of Fe and Co, whereas the hexagonal CsMX3 structure in the case of Ni was the most stable. Moreover, the calculation results were the same as the experimental results. In particular, cobalt-related Cs3CoBr5 NPs easily developed into Cs2CoCl4 nanorods with an increase in temperature.

High-throughput screening of perovskite inspired bismuth halide materials: toward lead-free photovoltaic cells and light-emitting diodes.

Toxicity is the main bottleneck for the commercialization of Pb halide perovskites. Bi has been considered a promising metal cation to replace Pb because of its comparable electronic structures with Pb and better stability. Although experimental and theoretical studies have proposed various Bi-based halides, the present achievements in photovoltaic cells and other photoelectronic device fields do not compete with Pb analogs. Thermodynamic stability, bandgap control, and enhancement of carrier transport are fundamental challenges in the context of intrinsic material properties for developing highly efficient Bi-based devices. This study evaluates the potential of Bi-based halide compounds with good stability and electronic properties through high-throughput density functional theory calculations. Lattice structures and compositions are selected based on previous reports and an open material database. Then, we expanded our dataset to cover all possible compositional variations of A- and X-sites and alloying to B-sites. We examined over six-hundred candidates and found ten new candidates that have not been reported previously. Rb3SbBiI9exhibits the best-expected efficiency for high-efficiency solar cells among selected compounds, and other compounds can be used as visible-light-generation sources. Analysis of the screening procedure revealed that vacancy-ordered (A3B2X9)-type Bi-halides exhibit significantly favorable characteristics when compared with those of double perovskites and rudorffite-like structures for Bi-based photoelectronic devices.

Posture-induced changes in intraocular pressure after ab externo XEN45 gel-stent implantation in patients with primary open-angle glaucoma.

BACKGROUND: To investigate posture-induced changes in intraocular pressure (IOP) after ab externo XEN45 Gel-Stent implantation in patients with medically uncontrolled primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). METHODS: This prospective study included thirty-two eyes with POAG that underwent XEN45 Gel-Stent implantation as a standalone procedure using an ab externo approach at Chonnam National University Hospital. IOP was measured sequentially in the sitting position, supine position, and lateral decubitus position (LDP) before and at 1, 2, 3, and 6 months after surgery using an iCare IC200 rebound tonometer. In the LDP, the eye with XEN45 Gel-Stent implantation was in the dependent position. RESULTS: IOP at each position was significantly reduced after XEN45 Gel-Stent implantation. Posture-induced changes in IOP were maintained during the follow-up. The range of postural IOP changes was reduced at 1 month; however, no significant change was observed after that point compared with baseline levels. CONCLUSIONS: A XEN45 Gel-Stent inserted using the ab externo approach can reduce IOP in various body positions, but seems to have limited effects on posture-induced changes in IOP in patients with POAG.

Speed and strength of an epidemic intervention.

An epidemic can be characterized by its strength (i.e., the reproductive number [Formula: see text]) and speed (i.e., the exponential growth rate r). Disease modellers have historically placed much more emphasis on strength, in part because the effectiveness of an intervention strategy is typically evaluated on this scale. Here, we develop a mathematical framework for the classic, strength-based paradigm and show that there is a dual speed-based paradigm which can provide complementary insights. In particular, we note that r = 0 is a threshold for disease spread, just like [Formula: see text] [ 1], and show that we can measure the strength and speed of an intervention on the same scale as the strength and speed of an epidemic, respectively. We argue that, while the strength-based paradigm provides the clearest insight into certain questions, the speed-based paradigm provides the clearest view in other cases. As an example, we show that evaluating the prospects of 'test-and-treat' interventions against the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can be done more clearly on the speed than strength scale, given uncertainty in the proportion of HIV spread that happens early in the course of infection. We also discuss evaluating the effects of the importance of pre-symptomatic transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We suggest that disease modellers should avoid over-emphasizing the reproductive number at the expense of the exponential growth rate, but instead look at these as complementary measures.

Long-term outcomes of prediction error after combined phacoemulsification and trabeculectomy in glaucoma patients.

BACKGROUND: To investigate long-term outcomes of prediction error after phacotrabeculectomy and to determine risk factors that may cause unstable prediction error after phacotrabeculectomy in glaucoma patients. METHODS: A total 120 eyes of 120 patients who had underwent uncomplicated phacotrabeculectomy (combined group) or phacoemulsification (phaco-only group) were included. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), intraocular pressure (IOP) were measured before and after surgery, and anterior segment parameters including anterior chamber depth (ACD), lens vault (LV), and anterior vault (AV) measured using anterior-segment optical coherence tomography were compared between the two groups. The mean absolute error (MAE) at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months postoperatively were compared. Risk factors associated with unstable prediction error (MAE ≥ 0.5) were investigated in the combined group. RESULTS: In both groups, BCVA was improved and IOP was decreased significantly. MAE at 3, 6, 12, 24 months postoperatively were not significantly different between two groups. The risk factors for unstable prediction error after 12 months of phacotrabeculectomy were old age and LV. Whereas, the only factor predicting unstable prediction error after 24 months of phacotrabeculectomy was LV. The cut-off value of LV for predicting unstable refractive error analyzed by the ROC curve was 0.855 mm. CONCLUSIONS: Phacotrabeculectomy may be an effective treatment with stable long-term outcomes of prediction error similar to phacoemulsification in patients with glaucoma. However, elderly patients or patients with large LV may be predisposed to unstable prediction error after phacotrabeculectomy.

Anterior Scleral Thickness in Myopic Eyes and Its Association with Ocular Parameters.

PURPOSE: This study was designed to determine whether the anterior scleral thickness is affected by axial elongation and to investigate the association between anterior scleral thickness and various ocular parameters in myopic eyes. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 79 healthy myopic participants. Anterior scleral thickness was measured in 8 meridians (superior-nasal, superior, superior-temporal, temporal [T], inferior-temporal, inferior [I], inferior-nasal, and nasal [N]) using anterior segment optical coherence tomography. Bruch's membrane opening (BMO) area, width of ß-parapapillary atrophy with and without Bruch's membrane (PPA+BM and PPA-BM), and the global peripapillary and subfoveal choroidal thickness were additionally measured. Age- and sex-adjusted partial correlation analysis and linear regression analysis were performed to examine the effects of axial length and various ocular parameters on anterior scleral thickness in myopic eyes. RESULTS: The mean age of the included participants was 27.03 ± 2.70 years. Overall, the anterior scleral thickness varied topographically according to the meridians and distance from the scleral spur. In the partial correlation analysis controlled for the effect of age and sex, increasing axial length was related to anterior scleral thinning at several measurement points along the T, I, and N meridians. Among the several ocular parameters, multivariate linear regression analysis with age, sex, and axial length as covariates revealed that central corneal thickness, intraocular pressure, and BMO area were significantly associated with anterior scleral thickness. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, there was a close relationship between the anterior scleral thickness and several ocular parameters in myopic eyes. These features should be taken into consideration when managing myopia, and our results might have important implications for understanding the pathogenesis of scleral changes during axial elongation.