Determinants of lipid clinic referral and attendance in a multi-ethnic adult population in south London: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Primary dyslipidaemias, including familial hypercholesterolaemia, are underdiagnosed genetic disorders that substantially increase risk for premature coronary artery disease in adults. Early identification of primary dyslipidaemias via lipid clinic referral optimises patient management and enables cascade screening of relatives. Improving the identification of primary dyslipidaemias, and understanding disparities in ascertainment and management, is an NHS priority. We aimed to assess determinants of lipid clinic referral or attendance (LCR) in ethnically diverse adults. METHODS: We did a retrospective cross-sectional study using the Lambeth DataNet containing anonymised data from 41 general practitioner (GP) practices in south London. We looked at referral data for adult patients aged 18 years and older from Jan 1, 1995, until May 14, 2018. LCR was the main outcome. We used sequential multilevel logistic regression models adjusted for practice effects to estimate the odds of LCR assessed across six ethnic groups (reference group White) and patient-level factors (demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle, comorbidities, total cholesterol [TC] >7·5mmol/L, statin prescription, and practice factors). The study was approved by NHS South East London Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) and NHS Lambeth CCG. FINDINGS: 780 (0·23%) of 332 357 adult patients were coded as referred (n=538) or seen (n=252) in a lipid clinic. 164 487 (46·49%) were women (appendix). The fully adjusted model for odds of LCR showed the following significant associations for age (odds ratio [OR] 0·96, 95% CI 0·96-0·97, p<0·001); Black, African, Caribbean, or Black-British ethnicity (0·67, 0·53-0·84, p=0·001); ex-smoker status (1·29, 1·05-1·57, p=0·014); TC higher than 7·5 mmol/L (12·18, 9·60-15·45, p<0·001); statin prescription (14·01, 10·85-18·10, p<0·001); diabetes (0·72, 0·58-0·91, p=0·005); high-frequency GP attendance at seven or more GP consultations in the past year (1·49, 1·21-1·84, p<0·001); high GP-density (0·5-0·99 full-time equivalent GPs per 1000 patients; 2·70, 1·23-5·92, p=0·013). Sensitivity analyses for LCR restricted to familial hypercholesterolaemia-coded patients (n=581) found associations with TC higher than 7·5 mmol/L (4·26, 1·89-9·62, p<0·001), statin prescription (16·96, 2·19-131·36, p=0·007), and high GP-density (5·73, 1·27-25·93, p=0·023), with no significant associations with ethnicity. The relative contribution of GP practices to LCR was 6·32% of the total variance. There were no significant interactions between ethnicity and deprivation, age, or obesity. INTERPRETATION: While interpretation is limited by the accuracy and completeness of coded records, the study showed factors associated with a higher likelihood of LCR included individuals recorded as having TC higher than 7·5 mmol/L, statin prescription, ex-smoker status, high-frequency GP attendance, and registration at a GP practice with 0·5-0·99 GP density. Patients with increasing age; Black, African, Caribbean, or Black-British ethnicity patients; and patients with diabetes had lower odds of LCR. Finally, the difference in odds of LCR between Black and White patients highlights potential health inequalities. FUNDING: NHS Race & Health Observatory.

Phenogrouping heart failure with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction using electronic health record data.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction includes a heterogenous group of patients. Reclassification into distinct phenogroups to enable targeted interventions is a priority. This study aimed to identify distinct phenogroups, and compare phenogroup characteristics and outcomes, from electronic health record data. METHODS: 2,187 patients admitted to five UK hospitals with a diagnosis of HF and a left ventricular ejection fraction ≥ 40% were identified from the NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative database. Partition-based, model-based, and density-based machine learning clustering techniques were applied. Cox Proportional Hazards and Fine-Gray competing risks models were used to compare outcomes (all-cause mortality and hospitalisation for HF) across phenogroups. RESULTS: Three phenogroups were identified: (1) Younger, predominantly female patients with high prevalence of cardiometabolic and coronary disease; (2) More frail patients, with higher rates of lung disease and atrial fibrillation; (3) Patients characterised by systemic inflammation and high rates of diabetes and renal dysfunction. Survival profiles were distinct, with an increasing risk of all-cause mortality from phenogroups 1 to 3 (p < 0.001). Phenogroup membership significantly improved survival prediction compared to conventional factors. Phenogroups were not predictive of hospitalisation for HF. CONCLUSIONS: Applying unsupervised machine learning to routinely collected electronic health record data identified phenogroups with distinct clinical characteristics and unique survival profiles.

The Impact of Long-Term Conditions and Comorbidity Patterns on COVID-19 Infection and Hospitalisation: A Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Older adults are more vulnerable to COVID-19 infections; however, little is known about which comorbidity patterns are related to a higher risk of COVID-19 infection. This study investigated the role of long-term conditions or comorbidity patterns on COVID-19 infection and related hospitalisations. METHODS: This study included 4,428 individuals from Waves 8 (2016-2017) and 9 (2018-2019) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) who also participated in the ELSA COVID-19 Substudy in 2020. Comorbidity patterns were identified using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering method. The relationships between comorbidity patterns or long-term conditions and COVID-19-related outcomes were examined using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among a representative sample of community-dwelling older adults in England, those with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and complex comorbidities had an almost double risk of COVID-19 infection (OR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.42-2.46) but not of COVID-19-related hospitalisation. A similar pattern was observed for the heterogeneous comorbidities cluster (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.24-1.96). The individual investigations of long-term conditions with COVID-19 infection highlighted primary associations with CVD (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.23-1.74), lung diseases (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.17-1.69), psychiatric conditions (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.16-1.68), retinopathy/eye diseases (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.18-1.64), and arthritis (OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.09-1.48). In contrast, metabolic disorders and diagnosed diabetes were not associated with any COVID-19 outcomes. CONCLUSION: This study provides novel insights into the comorbidity patterns that are more vulnerable to COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations, highlighting the vulnerability of those with CVD and other complex comorbidities. These findings facilitate crucial new evidence that should be considered for appropriate screening measures and tailored interventions for older adults in the ongoing global outbreak.

Mortality risk prediction of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein in suspected acute coronary syndrome: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the use of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) as a biomarker for selecting patients for advanced cardiovascular (CV) therapies in the modern era. The prognostic value of mildly elevated hsCRP beyond troponin in a large real-world cohort of unselected patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is unknown. We evaluated whether a mildly elevated hsCRP (up to 15 mg/L) was associated with mortality risk, beyond troponin level, in patients with suspected ACS. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study based on the National Institute for Health Research Health Informatics Collaborative data of 257,948 patients with suspected ACS who had a troponin measured at 5 cardiac centres in the United Kingdom between 2010 and 2017. Patients were divided into 4 hsCRP groups (<2, 2 to 4.9, 5 to 9.9, and 10 to 15 mg/L). The main outcome measure was mortality within 3 years of index presentation. The association between hsCRP levels and all-cause mortality was assessed using multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, haemoglobin, white cell count (WCC), platelet count, creatinine, and troponin. Following the exclusion criteria, there were 102,337 patients included in the analysis (hsCRP <2 mg/L (n = 38,390), 2 to 4.9 mg/L (n = 27,397), 5 to 9.9 mg/L (n = 26,957), and 10 to 15 mg/L (n = 9,593)). On multivariable Cox regression analysis, there was a positive and graded relationship between hsCRP level and mortality at baseline, which remained at 3 years (hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) of 1.32 (1.18 to 1.48) for those with hsCRP 2.0 to 4.9 mg/L and 1.40 (1.26 to 1.57) and 2.00 (1.75 to 2.28) for those with hsCRP 5 to 9.9 mg/L and 10 to 15 mg/L, respectively. This relationship was independent of troponin in all suspected ACS patients and was further verified in those who were confirmed to have an ACS diagnosis by clinical coding. The main limitation of our study is that we did not have data on underlying cause of death; however, the exclusion of those with abnormal WCC or hsCRP levels >15 mg/L makes it unlikely that sepsis was a major contributor. CONCLUSIONS: These multicentre, real-world data from a large cohort of patients with suspected ACS suggest that mildly elevated hsCRP (up to 15 mg/L) may be a clinically meaningful prognostic marker beyond troponin and point to its potential utility in selecting patients for novel treatments targeting inflammation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov - NCT03507309.

Polygenic risk scores for coronary artery disease and subsequent event risk amongst established cases.

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can identify individuals with elevated lifetime risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Whether they can also be used to stratify the risk of subsequent events among those surviving a first CAD event remain uncertain, with possible biological differences between CAD onset and progression, and the potential for index event bias. METHODS: Using two baseline subsamples of UK Biobank: prevalent CAD cases (N = 10 287) and individuals without CAD (N = 393 108), we evaluated associations between a CAD PRS and incident cardiovascular and fatal outcomes. RESULTS: A 1 SD higher PRS was associated with an increased risk of incident myocardial infarction (MI) in participants without CAD (OR 1.33; 95% CI 1.29, 1.38), but the effect estimate was markedly attenuated in those with prevalent CAD (OR 1.15; 95% CI 1.06, 1.25) and heterogeneity P = 0.0012. Additionally, among prevalent CAD cases, we found an evidence of an inverse association between the CAD PRS and risk of all-cause death (OR 0.91; 95% CI 0.85, 0.98) compared with those without CAD (OR 1.01; 95% CI 0.99, 1.03) and heterogeneity P = 0.0041. A similar inverse association was found for ischaemic stroke [prevalent CAD (OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.67, 0.90); without CAD (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.04, 1.15), heterogeneity P < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: Bias induced by case stratification and survival into UK Biobank may distort the associations of PRS derived from case-control studies or populations initially free of disease. Differentiating between effects of possible biases and genuine biological heterogeneity is a major challenge in disease progression research.

Elevated plasma triglyceride concentration and risk of adverse clinical outcomes in 1.5 million people: a CALIBER linked electronic health record study.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the spectrum of disease risk associated with hypertriglyceridemia is needed to inform potential benefits from emerging triglyceride lowering treatments. We sought to examine the associations between a full range of plasma triglyceride concentration with five clinical outcomes. METHODS: We used linked data from primary and secondary care for 15 M people, to explore the association between triglyceride concentration and risk of acute pancreatitis, chronic pancreatitis, new onset diabetes, myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality, over a median of 6-7 years follow up. RESULTS: Triglyceride concentration was available for 1,530,411 individuals (mean age 56·6 ± 15·6 years, 51·4% female), with a median of 1·3 mmol/L (IQR: 0.9.to 1.9). Severe hypertriglyceridemia, defined as > 10 mmol/L, was identified in 3289 (0·21%) individuals including 620 with > 20 mmol/L. In multivariable analyses, a triglyceride concentration > 20 mmol/L was associated with very high risk for acute pancreatitis (Hazard ratio (HR) 13·55 (95% CI 9·15-20·06)); chronic pancreatitis (HR 25·19 (14·91-42·55)); and high risk for diabetes (HR 5·28 (4·51-6·18)) and all-cause mortality (HR 3·62 (2·82-4·65)) when compared to the reference category of ≤ 1·7 mmol/L. An association with myocardial infarction, however, was only observed for more moderate hypertriglyceridaemia between 1.7 and 10 mmol/L. We found a risk interaction with age, with higher risks for all outcomes including mortality among those ≤ 40 years compared to > 40 years. CONCLUSIONS: We highlight an exponential association between severe hypertriglyceridaemia and risk of incident acute and chronic pancreatitis, new diabetes, and mortality, especially at younger ages, but not for myocardial infarction for which only moderate hypertriglyceridemia conferred risk.

Genome-wide analysis identifies novel susceptibility loci for myocardial infarction.

AIMS: While most patients with myocardial infarction (MI) have underlying coronary atherosclerosis, not all patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) develop MI. We sought to address the hypothesis that some of the genetic factors which establish atherosclerosis may be distinct from those that predispose to vulnerable plaques and thrombus formation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We carried out a genome-wide association study for MI in the UK Biobank (n∼472 000), followed by a meta-analysis with summary statistics from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Consortium (n∼167 000). Multiple independent replication analyses and functional approaches were used to prioritize loci and evaluate positional candidate genes. Eight novel regions were identified for MI at the genome wide significance level, of which effect sizes at six loci were more robust for MI than for CAD without the presence of MI. Confirmatory evidence for association of a locus on chromosome 1p21.3 harbouring choline-like transporter 3 (SLC44A3) with MI in the context of CAD, but not with coronary atherosclerosis itself, was obtained in Biobank Japan (n∼165 000) and 16 independent angiography-based cohorts (n∼27 000). Follow-up analyses did not reveal association of the SLC44A3 locus with CAD risk factors, biomarkers of coagulation, other thrombotic diseases, or plasma levels of a broad array of metabolites, including choline, trimethylamine N-oxide, and betaine. However, aortic expression of SLC44A3 was increased in carriers of the MI risk allele at chromosome 1p21.3, increased in ischaemic (vs. non-diseased) coronary arteries, up-regulated in human aortic endothelial cells treated with interleukin-1ß (vs. vehicle), and associated with smooth muscle cell migration in vitro. CONCLUSIONS: A large-scale analysis comprising ∼831 000 subjects revealed novel genetic determinants of MI and implicated SLC44A3 in the pathophysiology of vulnerable plaques.

Sex, Age, and Socioeconomic Differences in Nonfatal Stroke Incidence and Subsequent Major Adverse Outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Data about variations in stroke incidence and subsequent major adverse outcomes are essential to inform secondary prevention and prioritizing resources to those at the greatest risk of major adverse end points. We aimed to describe the age, sex, and socioeconomic differences in the rates of first nonfatal stroke and subsequent major adverse outcomes. METHODS: The cohort study used linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics data from the United Kingdom. The incidence rate (IR) ratio of first nonfatal stroke and subsequent major adverse outcomes (composite major adverse cardiovascular events, recurrent stroke, cardiovascular disease-related, and all-cause mortality) were calculated and presented by year, sex, age group, and socioeconomic status based on an individual's location of residence, in adults with incident nonfatal stroke diagnosis between 1998 and 2017. RESULTS: A total of 82 774 first nonfatal stroke events were recorded in either primary care or hospital data-an IR of 109.20 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI, 108.46-109.95). Incidence was significantly higher in women compared with men (IR ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.12-1.15]; P<0.001). Rates adjusted for age and sex were higher in the lowest compared with the highest socioeconomic status group (IR ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.08-1.13]; P<0.001). For subsequent major adverse outcomes, the overall incidence for major adverse cardiovascular event was 38.05 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 37.71-38.39) with a slightly higher incidence in women compared with men (38.42 versus 37.62; IR ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.00-1.04]; P=0.0229). Age and socioeconomic status largely accounted for the observed higher incidence of adverse outcomes in women. CONCLUSIONS: In the United Kingdom, incidence of initial stroke and subsequent major adverse outcomes are higher in women, older populations, and people living in socially deprived areas.

Invasive versus non-invasive management of older patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (SENIOR-NSTEMI): a cohort study based on routine clinical data.

BACKGROUND: Previous trials suggest lower long-term risk of mortality after invasive rather than non-invasive management of patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), but the trials excluded very elderly patients. We aimed to estimate the effect of invasive versus non-invasive management within 3 days of peak troponin concentration on the survival of patients aged 80 years or older with NSTEMI. METHODS: Routine clinical data for this study were obtained from five collaborating hospitals hosting NIHR Biomedical Research Centres in the UK (all tertiary centres with emergency departments). Eligible patients were 80 years old or older when they underwent troponin measurements and were diagnosed with NSTEMI between 2010 (2008 for University College Hospital) and 2017. Propensity scores (patients' estimated probability of receiving invasive management) based on pretreatment variables were derived using logistic regression; patients with high probabilities of non-invasive or invasive management were excluded. Patients who died within 3 days of peak troponin concentration without receiving invasive management were assigned to the invasive or non-invasive management groups based on their propensity scores, to mitigate immortal time bias. We estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing invasive with non-invasive management, and compared the rate of hospital admissions for heart failure. FINDINGS: Of the 1976 patients with NSTEMI, 101 died within 3 days of their peak troponin concentration and 375 were excluded because of extreme propensity scores. The remaining 1500 patients had a median age of 86 (IQR 82-89) years of whom (845 [56%] received non-invasive management. During median follow-up of 3·0 (IQR 1·2-4·8) years, 613 (41%) patients died. The adjusted cumulative 5-year mortality was 36% in the invasive management group and 55% in the non-invasive management group (adjusted hazard ratio 0·68, 95% CI 0·55-0·84). Invasive management was associated with lower incidence of hospital admissions for heart failure (adjusted rate ratio compared with non-invasive management 0·67, 95% CI 0·48-0·93). INTERPRETATION: The survival advantage of invasive compared with non-invasive management appears to extend to patients with NSTEMI who are aged 80 years or older. FUNDING: NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, as part of the NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative.

Weight Change and the Onset of Cardiovascular Diseases: Emulating Trials Using Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional measures of body mass index (BMI) are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, but less is known about whether weight change affects the risk of CVD. METHODS: We estimated the effect of 2-y weight change interventions on 7-y risk of CVD (CVD death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization from coronary heart disease, and heart failure) by emulating hypothetical interventions using electronic health records. We identified 138,567 individuals with 45-69 years of age without chronic disease in England from 1998 to 2016. We performed pooled logistic regression, using inverse-probability weighting to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders. We categorized each individual into a weight loss, maintenance, or gain group. RESULTS: Among those of normal weight, both weight loss [risk difference (RD) vs. weight maintenance = 1.5% (0.3% to 3.0%)] and gain [RD = 1.3% (0.5% to 2.2%)] were associated with increased risk for CVD compared with weight maintenance. Among overweight individuals, we observed moderately higher risk of CVD in both the weight loss [RD = 0.7% (-0.2% to 1.7%)] and the weight gain group [RD = 0.7% (-0.1% to 1.7%)], compared with maintenance. In the obese, those losing weight showed lower risk of coronary heart disease [RD = -1.4% (-2.4% to -0.6%)] but not of stroke. When we assumed that chronic disease occurred 1-3 years before the recorded date, estimates for weight loss and gain were attenuated among overweight individuals; estimates for loss were lower among obese individuals. CONCLUSION: Among individuals with obesity, the weight-loss group had a lower risk of coronary heart disease but not of stroke. Weight gain was associated with increased risk of CVD across BMI groups. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B838.

An informatics consult approach for generating clinical evidence for treatment decisions.

BACKGROUND: An Informatics Consult has been proposed in which clinicians request novel evidence from large scale health data resources, tailored to the treatment of a specific patient. However, the availability of such consultations is lacking. We seek to provide an Informatics Consult for a situation where a treatment indication and contraindication coexist in the same patient, i.e., anti-coagulation use for stroke prevention in a patient with both atrial fibrillation (AF) and liver cirrhosis. METHODS: We examined four sources of evidence for the effect of warfarin on stroke risk or all-cause mortality from: (1) randomised controlled trials (RCTs), (2) meta-analysis of prior observational studies, (3) trial emulation (using population electronic health records (N = 3,854,710) and (4) genetic evidence (Mendelian randomisation). We developed prototype forms to request an Informatics Consult and return of results in electronic health record systems. RESULTS: We found 0 RCT reports and 0 trials recruiting for patients with AF and cirrhosis. We found broad concordance across the three new sources of evidence we generated. Meta-analysis of prior observational studies showed that warfarin use was associated with lower stroke risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.71, CI 0.39-1.29). In a target trial emulation, warfarin was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR = 0.61, CI 0.49-0.76) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 0.27, CI 0.08-0.91). Mendelian randomisation served as a drug target validation where we found that lower levels of vitamin K1 (warfarin is a vitamin K1 antagonist) are associated with lower stroke risk. A pilot survey with an independent sample of 34 clinicians revealed that 85% of clinicians found information on prognosis useful and that 79% thought that they should have access to the Informatics Consult as a service within their healthcare systems. We identified candidate steps for automation to scale evidence generation and to accelerate the return of results. CONCLUSION: We performed a proof-of-concept Informatics Consult for evidence generation, which may inform treatment decisions in situations where there is dearth of randomised trials. Patients are surprised to know that their clinicians are currently not able to learn in clinic from data on 'patients like me'. We identify the key challenges in offering such an Informatics Consult as a service.

Genome-wide and Mendelian randomisation studies of liver MRI yield insights into the pathogenesis of steatohepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: MRI-based corrected T1 (cT1) is a non-invasive method to grade the severity of steatohepatitis and liver fibrosis. We aimed to identify genetic variants influencing liver cT1 and use genetics to understand mechanisms underlying liver fibroinflammatory disease and its link with other metabolic traits and diseases. METHODS: First, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 14,440 Europeans, with liver cT1 measures, from the UK Biobank. Second, we explored the effects of the cT1 variants on liver blood tests, and a range of metabolic traits and diseases. Third, we used Mendelian randomisation to test the causal effects of 24 predominantly metabolic traits on liver cT1 measures. RESULTS: We identified 6 independent genetic variants associated with liver cT1 that reached the GWAS significance threshold (p <5×10-8). Four of the variants (rs759359281 in SLC30A10, rs13107325 in SLC39A8, rs58542926 in TM6SF2, rs738409 in PNPLA3) were also associated with elevated aminotransferases and had variable effects on liver fat and other metabolic traits. Insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, non-alcoholic fatty liver and body mass index were causally associated with elevated cT1, whilst favourable adiposity (instrumented by variants associated with higher adiposity but lower risk of cardiometabolic disease and lower liver fat) was found to be protective. CONCLUSION: The association between 2 metal ion transporters and cT1 indicates an important new mechanism in steatohepatitis. Future studies are needed to determine whether interventions targeting the identified transporters might prevent liver disease in at-risk individuals. LAY SUMMARY: We estimated levels of liver inflammation and scarring based on magnetic resonance imaging of 14,440 UK Biobank participants. We performed a genetic study and identified variations in 6 genes associated with levels of liver inflammation and scarring. Participants with variations in 4 of these genes also had higher levels of markers of liver cell injury in blood samples, further validating their role in liver health. Two identified genes are involved in the transport of metal ions in our body. Further investigation of these variations may lead to better detection, assessment, and/or treatment of liver inflammation and scarring.

Carotid artery wave intensity in mid- to late-life predicts cognitive decline: the Whitehall II study.

AIMS: Excessive arterial pulsatility may contribute to cognitive decline and risk of dementia via damage to the fragile cerebral microcirculation. We hypothesized that the intensity of downstream-travelling pulsatile waves measured by wave intensity analysis in the common carotid artery during mid- to late-life would be associated with subsequent cognitive decline. METHODS AND RESULTS: Duplex Doppler ultrasound was used to calculate peak forward-travelling compression wave intensity (FCWI) within the common carotid artery in 3191 individuals [mean ± standard deviation (SD), age = 61 ± 6 years; 75% male] assessed as part of the Whitehall II study in 2003-05. Serial measures of cognitive function were taken between 2002-04 and 2015-16. The relationship between FCWI and cognitive decline was adjusted for sociodemographic variables, genetic and health-related risk factors, and health behaviours. Mean (SD) 10-year change in standardized global cognitive score was -0.39 (0.18). Higher FCWI at baseline was associated with accelerated cognitive decline during follow-up [difference in 10-year change of global cognitive score per 1 SD higher FCWI = -0.02 (95% confidence interval -0.04 to -0.00); P = 0.03]. This association was largely driven by cognitive changes in individuals with the highest FCWI [Q4 vs. Q1-Q3 = -0.05 (-0.09 to -0.01), P = 0.01], equivalent to an age effect of 1.9 years. Compared to other participants, this group was ∼50% more likely to exhibit cognitive decline (defined as the top 15% most rapid reductions in cognitive function during follow-up) even after adjustments for multiple potential confounding factors [odds ratio 1.49 (1.17-1.88)]. CONCLUSION: Elevated carotid artery wave intensity in mid- to late-life predicts faster cognitive decline in long-term follow-up independent of other cardiovascular risk factors.

Genetic studies of abdominal MRI data identify genes regulating hepcidin as major determinants of liver iron concentration.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Excess liver iron content is common and is linked to the risk of hepatic and extrahepatic diseases. We aimed to identify genetic variants influencing liver iron content and use genetics to understand its link to other traits and diseases. METHODS: First, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 8,289 individuals from UK Biobank, whose liver iron level had been quantified by magnetic resonance imaging, before validating our findings in an independent cohort (n = 1,513 from IMI DIRECT). Second, we used Mendelian randomisation to test the causal effects of 25 predominantly metabolic traits on liver iron content. Third, we tested phenome-wide associations between liver iron variants and 770 traits and disease outcomes. RESULTS: We identified 3 independent genetic variants (rs1800562 [C282Y] and rs1799945 [H63D] in HFE and rs855791 [V736A] in TMPRSS6) associated with liver iron content that reached the GWAS significance threshold (p <5 × 10-8). The 2 HFE variants account for ∼85% of all cases of hereditary haemochromatosis. Mendelian randomisation analysis provided evidence that higher central obesity plays a causal role in increased liver iron content. Phenome-wide association analysis demonstrated shared aetiopathogenic mechanisms for elevated liver iron, high blood pressure, cirrhosis, malignancies, neuropsychiatric and rheumatological conditions, while also highlighting inverse associations with anaemias, lipidaemias and ischaemic heart disease. CONCLUSION: Our study provides genetic evidence that mechanisms underlying higher liver iron content are likely systemic rather than organ specific, that higher central obesity is causally associated with higher liver iron, and that liver iron shares common aetiology with multiple metabolic and non-metabolic diseases. LAY SUMMARY: Excess liver iron content is common and is associated with liver diseases and metabolic diseases including diabetes, high blood pressure, and heart disease. We identified 3 genetic variants that are linked to an increased risk of developing higher liver iron content. We show that the same genetic variants are linked to higher risk of many diseases, but they may also be associated with some health advantages. Finally, we use genetic variants associated with waist-to-hip ratio as a tool to show that central obesity is causally associated with increased liver iron content.

Variant ASGR1 Associated with a Reduced Risk of Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Several sequence variants are known to have effects on serum levels of non-high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol that alter the risk of coronary artery disease. METHODS: We sequenced the genomes of 2636 Icelanders and found variants that we then imputed into the genomes of approximately 398,000 Icelanders. We tested for association between these imputed variants and non-HDL cholesterol levels in 119,146 samples. We then performed replication testing in two populations of European descent. We assessed the effects of an implicated loss-of-function variant on the risk of coronary artery disease in 42,524 case patients and 249,414 controls from five European ancestry populations. An augmented set of genomes was screened for additional loss-of-function variants in a target gene. We evaluated the effect of an implicated variant on protein stability. RESULTS: We found a rare noncoding 12-base-pair (bp) deletion (del12) in intron 4 of ASGR1, which encodes a subunit of the asialoglycoprotein receptor, a lectin that plays a role in the homeostasis of circulating glycoproteins. The del12 mutation activates a cryptic splice site, leading to a frameshift mutation and a premature stop codon that renders a truncated protein prone to degradation. Heterozygous carriers of the mutation (1 in 120 persons in our study population) had a lower level of non-HDL cholesterol than noncarriers, a difference of 15.3 mg per deciliter (0.40 mmol per liter) (P=1.0×10(-16)), and a lower risk of coronary artery disease (by 34%; 95% confidence interval, 21 to 45; P=4.0×10(-6)). In a larger set of sequenced samples from Icelanders, we found another loss-of-function ASGR1 variant (p.W158X, carried by 1 in 1850 persons) that was also associated with lower levels of non-HDL cholesterol (P=1.8×10(-3)). CONCLUSIONS: ASGR1 haploinsufficiency was associated with reduced levels of non-HDL cholesterol and a reduced risk of coronary artery disease. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

Evaluation of cardiovascular risk in a lung cancer screening cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer screening (LCS) by low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) offers an opportunity to impact both lung cancer and coronary heart disease mortality through detection of coronary artery calcification (CAC). Here, we explore the value of CAC and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment in LCS participants in the Lung Screen Uptake Trial (LSUT). METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, current and ex-smokers aged 60-75 were invited to a 'lung health check'. Data collection included a CVD risk assessment enabling estimation of 10 year CVD risk using the QRISK2 score. Participants meeting the required lung cancer risk underwent an ungated, non-contrast LDCT. Descriptive data, bivariate associations and a multivariate analysis of predictors of statin use are presented. RESULTS: Of 1005 individuals enrolled, 680 were included in the final analysis. 421 (61.9%) had CAC present and in 49 (7.2%), this was heavy. 668 (98%) of participants had a QRISK2≥10% and QRISK2 was positively associated with increasing CAC grade (OR 4.29 (CI 0.93 to 19.88) for QRISK2=10%-20% and 12.29 (CI 2.68 to 56.1) for QRISK2≥20% respectively). Of those who qualified for statin primary prevention (QRISK2≥10%), 56.8% did not report a history of statin use. In the multivariate analysis statin use was associated with age, body mass index and history of hypertension and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: LCS offers an important opportunity for instituting CVD risk assessment in all LCS participants irrespective of the presence of LDCT-detected CAC. Further studies are needed to determine whether CAC could enhance uptake and adherence to primary preventative strategies.

Variation in Interleukin 6 Receptor Gene Associates With Risk of Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis.

Interleukin 6 (IL6) is an inflammatory cytokine; signaling via its receptor (IL6R) is believed to contribute to development of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). The single nucleotide polymorphism rs2228145 in IL6R associates with increased levels of soluble IL6R (s-IL6R), as well as reduced IL6R signaling and risk of inflammatory disorders; its effects are similar to those of a therapeutic monoclonal antibody that blocks IL6R signaling. We used the effect of rs2228145 on s-IL6R level as an indirect marker to investigate whether reduced IL6R signaling associates with risk of ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn's disease (CD). In a genome-wide meta-analysis of 20,550 patients with CD, 17,647 patients with UC, and more than 40,000 individuals without IBD (controls), we found that rs2228145 (scaled to a 2-fold increase in s-IL6R) was associated with reduced risk of CD (odds ratio 0.876; 95% confidence interval 0.822-0.933; P = .00003) or UC (odds ratio 0.932; 95% confidence interval 0.875-0.996; P = .036). These findings indicate that therapeutics designed to block IL6R signaling might be effective in treatment of IBD.

Bleeding in cardiac patients prescribed antithrombotic drugs: electronic health record phenotyping algorithms, incidence, trends and prognosis.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines and public health authorities lack recommendations on scalable approaches to defining and monitoring the occurrence and severity of bleeding in populations prescribed antithrombotic therapy. METHODS: We examined linked primary care, hospital admission and death registry electronic health records (CALIBER 1998-2010, England) of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina or stable angina with the aim to develop algorithms for bleeding events. Using the developed bleeding phenotypes, Kaplan-Meier plots were used to estimate the incidence of bleeding events and we used Cox regression models to assess the prognosis for all-cause mortality, atherothrombotic events and further bleeding. RESULTS: We present electronic health record phenotyping algorithms for bleeding based on bleeding diagnosis in primary or hospital care, symptoms, transfusion, surgical procedures and haemoglobin values. In validation of the phenotype, we estimated a positive predictive value of 0.88 (95% CI 0.64, 0.99) for hospitalised bleeding. Amongst 128,815 patients, 27,259 (21.2%) had at least 1 bleeding event, with 5-year risks of bleeding of 29.1%, 21.9%, 25.3% and 23.4% following diagnoses of atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina and stable angina, respectively. Rates of hospitalised bleeding per 1000 patients more than doubled from 1.02 (95% CI 0.83, 1.22) in January 1998 to 2.68 (95% CI 2.49, 2.88) in December 2009 coinciding with the increased rates of antiplatelet and vitamin K antagonist prescribing. Patients with hospitalised bleeding and primary care bleeding, with or without markers of severity, were at increased risk of all-cause mortality and atherothrombotic events compared to those with no bleeding. For example, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.98 (95% CI 1.86, 2.11) for primary care bleeding with markers of severity and 1.99 (95% CI 1.92, 2.05) for hospitalised bleeding without markers of severity, compared to patients with no bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Electronic health record bleeding phenotyping algorithms offer a scalable approach to monitoring bleeding in the population. Incidence of bleeding has doubled in incidence since 1998, affects one in four cardiovascular disease patients, and is associated with poor prognosis. Efforts are required to tackle this iatrogenic epidemic.

Circulating Progenitor Cells Identify Peripheral Arterial Disease in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

RATIONALE: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a clinical manifestation of extracoronary atherosclerosis. Despite sharing the same risk factors, only 20% to 30% of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) develop PAD. Decline in the number of bone marrow-derived circulating progenitor cells (PCs) is thought to contribute to the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. Whether specific changes in PCs differentiate patients with both PAD and CAD from those with CAD alone is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Determine whether differences exist in PCs counts of CAD patients with and without known PAD. METHODS AND RESULTS: 1497 patients (mean age: 65 years; 62% men) with known CAD were identified in the Emory Cardiovascular Biobank. Presence of PAD (n=308) was determined by history, review of medical records, or imaging and was classified as carotid (53%), lower extremity (41%), upper extremity (3%), and aortic disease (33%). Circulating PCs were enumerated by flow cytometry. Patients with CAD and PAD had significantly lower PC counts compared with those with only CAD. In multivariable analysis, a 50% decrease in cluster of differentiation 34 (CD34+) or CD34+/vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-2 (VEGFR2+) counts was associated with a 31% (P=0.032) and 183% (P=0.002) increase in the odds of having PAD, respectively. CD34+ and CD34+/VEGFR2+ counts significantly improved risk prediction metrics for prevalent PAD. Low CD34+/VEGFR2+ counts were associated with a 1.40-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.91) and a 1.64-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.07-2.50) increases in the risk of mortality and PAD-related events, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PAD is associated with low CD34+ and CD34+/VEGFR2+ PC counts. Whether low PC counts are useful in screening for PAD needs to be investigated.