Estimating epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus based on wastewater monitoring and a novel machine learning algorithm.

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered the circulation of non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory viruses. In this study, we carried out wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus (IAV) in three key port cities in China through real-time quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). Next, a novel machine learning algorithm (MLA) based on Gaussian model and random forest model was used to predict the epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 and IAV. The results showed that from February 2023 to January 2024, three port cities experienced two waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection, which peaked in late-May and late-August 2023, respectively. Two waves of IAV were observed in the spring and winter of 2023, respectively with considerable variations in terms of onset/offset date and duration. Furthermore, we employed MLA to extract the key features of epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 and IAV from February 3rd, to October 15th, 2023, and thereby predicted the epidemic trends of SARS-CoV-2 and IAV from October 16th, 2023 to April 22nd, 2024, which showed high consistency with the observed values. These collective findings offer an important understanding of SARS-CoV-2 and IAV epidemics, suggesting that wastewater surveillance together with MLA emerges as a powerful tool for risk assessment of respiratory viral diseases and improving public health preparedness.

Early Detection of the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 Lineage Through Wastewater Surveillance Using a Mediator Probe PCR Assay - Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, China, 2023.

Introduction: The emergence of the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron sublineage, BA.2.86, has sparked global public health concerns for its potential heightened transmissibility and immune evasion. Utilizing data from Shenzhen's city-wide wastewater surveillance system, we highlight the presence of the BA.2.86 lineage in Shenzhen. Methods: A mediator probe polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was developed to detect the BA.2.86 lineage in wastewater by targeting a specific mutation (Spike: A264D). Between September 19 and December 10, 2023, 781 wastewater samples from 38 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and 9 pump stations in ten districts of Shenzhen were examined. Through multiple short-amplicon sequencing, three positive samples were identified. Results: The BA.2.86 lineage was identified in the wastewater of Futian and Nanshan districts in Shenzhen on December 2, 2023. From December 2 to 10, a total of 21 BA.2.86-positive wastewater samples were found across 6 districts (Futian, Nanshan, Longhua, Baoan, Longgang, and Luohu) in Shenzhen. The weighted average viral load of the BA.2.86 lineage in Shenzhen's wastewater was 43.5 copies/L on December 2, increased to 219.8 copies/L on December 4, and then decreased to approximately 100 copies/L on December 6, 8, and 10. Conclusions: The mediator probe PCR assay, designed for swift detection of low viral concentrations of the BA.2.86 lineage in wastewater samples, shows promise for detecting different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Wastewater surveillance could serve as an early detection system for promptly identifying specific SARS-CoV-2 variants as they emerge.

The viral trends and genotype diversity of norovirus in the wastewater of Shenzhen, China.

Norovirus (NoV) is the primary cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) on a global scale. Numerous studies have demonstrated the immense potential of wastewater surveillance in monitoring the prevalence and spread of NoV within communities. This study employed a one-step reverse transcription-quantitative PCR to quantify NoV GI/GII in wastewater samples (n = 2574), which were collected once or twice a week from 38 wastewater treatment plants from March 2023 to February 2024 in Shenzhen. The concentrations of NoV GI and GII ranged from 5.0 × 104 to 1.7 × 106 copies/L and 4.1 × 105 to 4.5 × 106 copies/L, respectively. The concentrations of NoV GII were higher than those of NoV GI. Spearman's correlation analysis revealed a moderate correlation between the concentration of NoV in wastewater and the detection rates of NoV infections in sentinel hospitals. Baseline values were established for NoV concentrations in Shenzhen's wastewater, providing a crucial reference point for implementing early warning systems and nonpharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the impact of potential outbreaks. A total of 24 NoV genotypes were identified in 100 wastewater samples by sequencing. Nine genotypes of NoV GI were detected, with the major genotypes being GI.4 (38.6 %) and GI.3 (21.8 %); Fifteen genotypes of NoV GII were identified, with GII.4 (53.6 %) and GII.17 (26.0 %) being dominant. The trends in the relative abundance of NoV GI/GII were significantly different, and the trends in the relative abundance of NoV GII.4 over time were similar across all districts, suggesting a potential risk of cross-regional spread. Our findings underscore the effectiveness of wastewater surveillance in reflecting population-level NoV infections, capturing the diverse array of NoV genotypes, and utilizing NoV RNA in wastewater as a specific indicator to supplement clinical surveillance data, ultimately enhancing our ability to predict the timing and intensity of NoV epidemics.

Rapid and extensive SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection wave revealed by wastewater surveillance in Shenzhen following the lifting of a strict COVID-19 strategy.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a promising tool for monitoring the spread of COVID-19, as SARS-CoV-2 can be shed in the faeces of infected individuals, even in the absence of symptoms. This study aimed to optimize a prediction model for estimating COVID-19 infection rates based on SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater, and reveal the infection trends and variant diversification in Shenzhen, China following the lifting of a strict COVID-19 strategy. Faecal samples (n = 4337) from 1204 SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals hospitalized in a designated hospital were analysed to obtain Omicron variant-specific faecal shedding dynamics. Wastewater samples from 6 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and 9 pump stations, covering 3.55 million people, were monitored for SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations and variant abundance. We found that the viral load in wastewater increased rapidly in December 2022 in the two districts, demonstrating a sharp peak in COVID-19 infections in late-December 2022, mainly caused by Omicron subvariants BA.5.2.48 and BF.7.14. The prediction model, based on the mass balance between total viral load in wastewater and individual faecal viral shedding, revealed a surge in the cumulative infection rate from <0.1 % to over 70 % within three weeks after the strict COVID-19 strategy was lifted. Additionally, 39 cryptic SARS-CoV-2 variants were identified in wastewater, in addition to those detected through clinical surveillance. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of WBE in providing comprehensive and efficient assessments of COVID-19 infection rates and identifying cryptic variants, highlighting its potential for monitoring emerging pathogens with faecal shedding.