Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050-Prevalence of Risk Factors and Disease: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease and stroke are common and costly, and their prevalence is rising. Forecasts on the prevalence of risk factors and clinical events are crucial. METHODS: Using the 2015 to March 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and 2015 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we estimated trends in prevalence for cardiovascular risk factors based on adverse levels of Life's Essential 8 and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke. We projected through 2050, overall and by age and race and ethnicity, accounting for changes in disease prevalence and demographics. RESULTS: We estimate that among adults, prevalence of hypertension will increase from 51.2% in 2020 to 61.0% in 2050. Diabetes (16.3% to 26.8%) and obesity (43.1% to 60.6%) will increase, whereas hypercholesterolemia will decline (45.8% to 24.0%). The prevalences of poor diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking are estimated to improve over time, whereas inadequate sleep will worsen. Prevalences of coronary disease (7.8% to 9.2%), heart failure (2.7% to 3.8%), stroke (3.9% to 6.4%), atrial fibrillation (1.7% to 2.4%), and total cardiovascular disease (11.3% to 15.0%) will rise. Clinical CVD will affect 45 million adults, and CVD including hypertension will affect more than 184 million adults by 2050 (>61%). Similar trends are projected in children. Most adverse trends are projected to be worse among people identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of many cardiovascular risk factors and most established diseases will increase over the next 30 years. Clinical and public health interventions are needed to effectively manage, stem, and even reverse these adverse trends.

Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco packaging design is conceived to be attractive. Plain packaging of tobacco products reduces this attractiveness by standardising their shape, size, font and colours. METHODS: To evaluate the effect of applying plain packaging to tobacco products on cardiovascular events and mortality in Argentina, we used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina, a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old using local demographic and consumption data, during the period 2015-2024. After a literature review, we estimated that the implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products would result in an absolute decrease in tobacco prevalence of 0.55% (base-case scenario) and performed a sensitivity analysis assuming a higher and lower decrease of 1.01% and 0.095%, respectively. RESULTS: Over the 2015-2024 period, the decrease in smoking prevalence associated with plain packaging (0.55%) is projected to avert 1880 myocardial infarctions (MI), 820 strokes and 4320 total deaths in Argentina. The higher estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (1.01%) would translate into 3450 fewer MIs, 1490 fewer strokes and 7920 fewer deaths, while the lower estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (0.095%) would result in 330 fewer MIs, 140 fewer strokes and 750 fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products could reduce cardiovascular events in Argentina, even in the absence of other tobacco control measures. Actual health benefits are likely higher than those presented here, since plain packaging may be most impactful by preventing young people from initiating smoking.

Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Treatment by Pharmacists in Black Barbershops.

BACKGROUND: In LABBPS (Los Angeles Barbershop Blood Pressure Study), pharmacist-led hypertension care in Los Angeles County Black-owned barbershops significantly improved blood pressure control in non-Hispanic Black men with uncontrolled hypertension at baseline. In this analysis, 10-year health outcomes and health care costs of 1 year of the LABBPS intervention versus control are projected. METHODS: A discrete event simulation of hypertension care processes projected blood pressure, medication-related adverse events, fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease events, and noncardiovascular disease death in LABBPS participants. Program costs, total direct health care costs (2019 US dollars), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated for the LABBPS intervention and control arms from a health care sector perspective over a 10-year horizon. Future costs and QALYs were discounted 3% annually. High and intermediate cost-effectiveness thresholds were defined as <$50 000 and <$150 000 per QALY gained, respectively. RESULTS: At 10 years, the intervention was projected to cost an average of $2356 (95% uncertainty interval, -$264 to $4611) more per participant than the control arm and gain 0.06 (95% uncertainty interval, 0.01-0.10) QALYs. The LABBPS intervention was highly cost-effective, with a mean cost of $42 717 per QALY gained (58% probability of being highly and 96% of being at least intermediately cost-effective). Exclusive use of generic drugs improved the cost-effectiveness to $17 162 per QALY gained. The LABBPS intervention would be only intermediately cost-effective if pharmacists were less likely to intensify antihypertensive medications when systolic blood pressure was ≥150 mm Hg or if pharmacist weekly time driving to barbershops increased. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension care delivered by clinical pharmacists in Black barbershops is a highly cost-effective way to improve blood pressure control in Black men.

Projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in Argentina: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is associated with obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. Argentina is one of the major consumers of SSBs per capita worldwide. Determining the impact of SSB reduction on health will inform policy debates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina (CVD Policy Model-Argentina), a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old, to estimate the impact of reducing SSB consumption on diabetes incidence, cardiovascular events, and mortality in Argentina during the period 2015-2024, using local demographic and consumption data. Given uncertainty regarding the exact amount of SSBs consumed by different age groups, we modeled 2 estimates of baseline consumption (low and high) under 2 different scenarios: a 10% and a 20% decrease in SSB consumption. We also included a range of caloric compensation in the model (0%, 39%, and 100%). We used Monte Carlo simulations to generate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) around our primary outcome measures for each intervention scenario. Over the 2015-2024 period, a 10% reduction in SSBs with a caloric compensation of 39% is projected to reduce incident diabetes cases by 13,300 (95% UI 10,800-15,600 [low SSB consumption estimate]) to 27,700 cases (95% UI 22,400-32,400 [high SSB consumption estimate]), i.e., 1.7% and 3.6% fewer cases, respectively, compared to a scenario of no change in SSB consumption. It would also reduce myocardial infarctions by 2,500 (95% UI 2,200-2,800) to 5,100 (95% UI 4,500-5,700) events and all-cause deaths by 2,700 (95% UI 2,200-3,200) to 5,600 (95% UI 4,600-6,600) for "low" and "high" estimates of SSB intake, respectively. A 20% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% caloric compensation is projected to result in 26,200 (95% UI 21,200-30,600) to 53,800 (95% UI 43,900-62,700) fewer cases of diabetes, 4,800 (95% UI 4,200-5,300) to 10,000 (95% UI 8,800-11,200) fewer myocardial infarctions, and 5,200 (95% UI 4,300-6,200) to 11,000 (95% UI 9,100-13,100) fewer deaths. The largest reductions in diabetes and cardiovascular events were observed in the youngest age group modeled (35-44 years) for both men and women; additionally, more events could be avoided in men compared to women in all age groups. The main limitations of our study are the limited availability of SSB consumption data in Argentina and the fact that we were only able to model the possible benefits of the interventions for the population older than 34 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our study finds that, even under conservative assumptions, a relatively small reduction in SSB consumption could lead to a substantial decrease in diabetes incidence, cardiovascular events, and mortality in Argentina.

Cardiovascular and diabetes burden attributable to physical inactivity in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity (PI) is associated with the development of non-communicable chronic diseases. The purposes of this study were to estimate the extent to which the 31% relative increase in PI among 35-64 years old Mexicans between 2006 and 2012 influenced diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality, and to estimate the impact of the World Health Organization recommended 10% and 15% relative decrease in PI on CVD and T2D incidence and mortality by 2025 and 2030, respectively. METHODS: Estimates were derived using the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a computer simulation, Markov model. Model inputs included cross-national data on PI levels from 2006 and 2012 measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire and the published literature review on the independent relationship between PI and cardiometabolic risk. RESULTS: The models estimated that the 31% increase in PI resulted in an increase in the number of cases of T2D (27,100), coronary heart disease (10,300), stroke (2200), myocardial infarction (1500), stroke deaths (400) and coronary heart disease deaths (350). A hypothetical 10% lowering of PI by 2025 compared to status quo is projected to prevent 8400 cases of T2D, 4200 cases of CHD, 1000 cases of stroke, 700 cases of MI, and 200 deaths of CHD and stroke, respectively. A 15% reduction resulted in larger decreases. CONCLUSIONS: While the burden of T2D and CVD raised from 2006 to 2012 in association with increased PI, achieving the WHO targets by 2030 could help reverse these trends.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alirocumab: A Just-in-Time Analysis Based on the ODYSSEY Outcomes Trial.

Background: The ODYSSEY Outcomes (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab) trial included participants with a recent acute coronary syndrome. Compared with participants receiving statins alone, those receiving a statin plus alirocumab had lower rates of a composite outcome including myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and death. Objective: To determine the cost-effectiveness of alirocumab in these circumstances. Design: Decision analysis using the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model. Data Sources: Data sources representative of the United States combined with data from the ODYSSEY Outcomes trial. Target Population: U.S. adults with a recent first MI and a baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level of 1.81 mmol/L (70 mg/dL) or greater. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: U.S. health system. Intervention: Alirocumab or ezetimibe added to statin therapy. Outcome Measures: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in 2018 U.S. dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Compared with a statin alone, the addition of ezetimibe cost $81 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], $51 000 to $215 000) per QALY. Compared with a statin alone, the addition of alirocumab cost $308 000 (UI, $197 000 to $678 000) per QALY. Compared with the combination of statin and ezetimibe, replacing ezetimibe with alirocumab cost $997 000 (UI, $254 000 to dominated) per QALY. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: The price of alirocumab would have to decrease from its original cost of $14 560 to $1974 annually to be cost-effective relative to ezetimibe. Limitation: Effectiveness estimates were based on a single randomized trial with a median follow-up of 2.8 years and should not be extrapolated to patients with stable coronary heart disease. Conclusion: The price of alirocumab would have to be reduced considerably to be cost-effective. Because substantial reductions already have occurred, we believe that timely, independent cost-effectiveness analyses can inform clinical and policy discussions of new drugs as they enter the market. Primary Funding Source: University of California, San Francisco, and Institute for Clinical and Economic Review.

A Cost Analysis and Cost-Utility Analysis of a Community Pharmacist-Led Intervention on Reducing Cardiovascular Risk: The Alberta Vascular Risk Reduction Community Pharmacy Project (RxEACH).

BACKGROUND: A randomized trial (the Alberta Vascular Risk Reduction Community Pharmacy Project) showed that a community pharmacist-led intervention was efficacious for reducing cardiovascular (CV) risk. However, the cost of this strategy is unknown. OBJECTIVES: We examined the short- and long-term cost of a pharmacist-led intervention to reduce CV risk compared to usual care. METHODS: We conducted a trial-based cost analysis from the perspective of a publicly funded healthcare system. Over 3 and 12 months of follow-up, we examined specific intervention costs (pharmacy claims), related intervention costs (laboratory tests and medications), and ongoing healthcare costs (physician claims, emergency department visits, and hospital admissions). We also used the validated CV Disease Policy Model-Canada to estimate the long-term effects. RESULTS: A total of 684 participants (mean age 62, 57% male) were included. Overall, there were no significant differences in healthcare costs at 3 or 12 months between the usual care and intervention groups (P = .127). The CV disease-related healthcare cost of managing a patient over a lifetime was estimated to be Can$45 530 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 45 460-45 580) and Can$40 750 (95% UI, 37 780-43 620) in usual care and intervention groups, respectively, an incremental cost savings of Can$4770 per patient (95% UI, 1900-7760). The intervention dominated usual care (better outcomes and lower costs) across 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and lifetime horizons. CONCLUSION: This economic analysis suggests that a clinical pathway-driven pharmacist-led intervention (previously shown to reduce CV risk) was associated with similar measured healthcare costs over 1 year, and lower extrapolated healthcare costs over a patient lifetime. This strategy could be broadly implemented to realize its benefits.

Evaluating the Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Statin Use Guidelines for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Statins are effective in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline expands recommended statin use, but its cost-effectiveness has not been compared with other guidelines. METHODS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the ACC/AHA guideline relative to current use, Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, and universal statin use in all men 45 to 74 years of age and women 55 to 74 years of age over a 10-year horizon from 2016 to 2025. Sensitivity analyses varied costs, risks, and benefits. Main outcomes were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and numbers needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained. RESULTS: Each approach produces substantial benefits and net cost savings relative to the status quo. Full adherence to the Adult Treatment Panel III guideline would result in 8.8 million more statin users than the status quo, at a number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 35. The ACC/AHA guideline would potentially result in up to 12.3 million more statin users than the Adult Treatment Panel III guideline, with a marginal number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 68. Moderate-intensity statin use in all men 45 to 74 years of age and women 55 to 74 years of age would result in 28.9 million more statin users than the ACC/AHA guideline, with a marginal number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 108. In all cases, benefits would be greater in men than women. Results vary moderately with different risk thresholds for instituting statins and statin toxicity estimates but depend greatly on the disutility caused by daily medication use (pill burden). CONCLUSIONS: At a population level, the ACC/AHA guideline for expanded statin use for primary prevention is projected to treat more people, to save more lives, and to cost less compared with Adult Treatment Panel III in both men and women. Whether individuals benefit from long-term statin use for primary prevention depends more on the disutility associated with pill burden than their degree of cardiovascular risk.

Comparing Strategies for Lipid Lowering in Argentina: An Analysis from the CVD Policy Model-Argentina.

INTRODUCTION: In Argentina, the national guidelines for lipid control emphasize the use of relatively inexpensive low- or moderate-potency statins by patients at high risk (>20 %) of a cardiovascular event. The objective of this study was to compare the impact and costs of the current national CVD prevention guidelines with regard to morbidity and mortality in Argentina with the impact and costs of three strategies that incorporate high-potency statins. METHODS: We used the CVD Policy Model-Argentina to model the proposed interventions. This model is a national-scale, state-transition (Markov) computer simulation model of the CVD incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs in adults 35-84 years of age. We modeled three scenarios: scenario 1 lowers the risk threshold for treatment to >10 % according the Framingham Risk Score (FRS); scenario 2 intensifies statin potency under current treatment thresholds; and scenario 3 combines both scenarios by lowering the treatment threshold to ≥10 % FRS and intensifying statin potency. RESULTS: Scenario 1 would translate into 1400 fewer MIs and 500 fewer CHD deaths every year, a 3 % and 2 % reduction, respectively. Scenario 2 would lead to 2000 fewer MIs and 1000 fewer CHD deaths every year. Scenario 3 would result in the greatest reduction in MIs and CHD deaths, with 3400 fewer MIs and 1400 fewer CHD deaths every year, which translates to a 7 % and 6 % reduction, respectively. All scenarios were cost-effective if the cost of a high-potency statin pill was under US$0.25. CONCLUSION: Incorporating those individuals with greater than 10 % cardiovascular risk and the use of high-potency statins into Argentina's national lipid guidelines could result in fewer CHD deaths and events at a reasonable cost.

Projected Impact of Mexico's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a state transition model of Mexican adults aged 35-94 y, to project the potential future effects of reduced SSB intake on diabetes incidence, CVD events, direct diabetes healthcare costs, and mortality over 10 y. Model inputs included short-term changes in SSB consumption in response to taxation (price elasticity) and data from government and market research surveys and public healthcare institutions. Two main scenarios were modeled: a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation) and a 20% reduction in SSB consumption (possible with increases in taxation levels and/or additional measures to curb consumption). Given uncertainty about the degree to which Mexicans will replace calories from SSBs with calories from other sources, we evaluated a range of values for calorie compensation. We projected that a 10% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% calorie compensation among Mexican adults would result in about 189,300 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155,400-218,100) fewer incident type 2 diabetes cases, 20,400 fewer incident strokes and myocardial infarctions, and 18,900 fewer deaths occurring from 2013 to 2022. This scenario predicts that the SSB tax could save Mexico 983 million international dollars (95% UI $769 million-$1,173 million). The largest relative and absolute reductions in diabetes and CVD events occurred in the youngest age group modeled (35-44 y). This study's strengths include the use of an established mathematical model of CVD and use of contemporary Mexican vital statistics, data from health surveys, healthcare costs, and SSB price elasticity estimates as well as probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty. The limitations of the study include reliance on US-based studies for certain inputs where Mexico-specific data were lacking (specifically the associations between risk factors and CVD outcomes [from the Framingham Heart Study] and SSB calorie compensation assumptions), limited data on healthcare costs other than those related to diabetes, and lack of information on long-term SSB price elasticity that is specific to geographic and economic subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Mexico's high diabetes prevalence represents a public health crisis. While the long-term impact of Mexico's SSB tax is not yet known, these projections, based on observed consumption reductions, suggest that Mexico's SSB tax may substantially decrease morbidity and mortality from diabetes and CVD while reducing healthcare costs.

The Effectiveness of Emergency Department Visit Reduction Programs: A Systematic Review.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Previous reviews of emergency department (ED) visit reduction programs have not required that studies meet a minimum quality level and have therefore included low-quality studies in forming conclusions about the benefits of these programs. We conduct a systematic review of ED visit reduction programs after judging the quality of the research. We aim to determine whether these programs are effective in reducing ED visits and whether they result in adverse events. METHODS: We identified studies of ED visit reduction programs conducted in the United States and targeted toward adult patients from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2014. We evaluated study quality according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria and included moderate- to high-quality studies in our review. We categorized interventions according to whether they targeted high-risk or low-acuity populations. RESULTS: We evaluated the quality of 38 studies and found 13 to be of moderate or high quality. Within these 13 studies, only case management consistently reduced ED use. Studies of ED copayments had mixed results. We did not find evidence for any increase in adverse events (hospitalization rates or mortality) from the interventions in either high-risk or low-acuity populations. CONCLUSION: High-quality, peer-reviewed evidence about ED visit reduction programs is limited. For most program types, we were unable to draw definitive conclusions about effectiveness. Future ED visit reduction programs should be regarded as demonstrations in need of rigorous evaluation.

Cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 Inhibitor Therapy in Patients With Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia or Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

IMPORTANCE: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors were recently approved for lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) or atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and have potential for broad ASCVD prevention. Their long-term cost-effectiveness and effect on total health care spending are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors and their potential effect on US health care spending. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model, a simulation model of US adults aged 35 to 94 years, was used to evaluate cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors or ezetimibe in heterozygous FH or ASCVD. The model incorporated 2015 annual PCSK9 inhibitor costs of $14,350 (based on mean wholesale acquisition costs of evolocumab and alirocumab); adopted a health-system perspective, lifetime horizon; and included probabilistic sensitivity analyses to explore uncertainty. EXPOSURES: Statin therapy compared with addition of ezetimibe or PCSK9 inhibitors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Lifetime major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or stroke), incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), and total effect on US health care spending over 5 years. RESULTS: Adding PCSK9 inhibitors to statins in heterozygous FH was estimated to prevent 316,300 MACE at a cost of $503,000 per QALY gained compared with adding ezetimibe to statins (80% uncertainty interval [UI], $493,000-$1,737,000). In ASCVD, adding PCSK9 inhibitors to statins was estimated to prevent 4.3 million MACE compared with adding ezetimibe at $414,000 per QALY (80% UI, $277,000-$1,539,000). Reducing annual drug costs to $4536 per patient or less would be needed for PCSK9 inhibitors to be cost-effective at less than $100,000 per QALY. At 2015 prices, PCSK9 inhibitor use in all eligible patients was estimated to reduce cardiovascular care costs by $29 billion over 5 years, but drug costs increased by an estimated $592 billion (a 38% increase over 2015 prescription drug expenditures). In contrast, initiating statins in these high-risk populations in all statin-tolerant individuals who are not currently using statins was estimated to save $12 billion. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Assuming 2015 prices, PCSK9 inhibitor use in patients with heterozygous FH or ASCVD did not meet generally acceptable incremental cost-effectiveness thresholds and was estimated to increase US health care costs substantially. Reducing annual drug prices from more than $14,000 to $4536 would be necessary to meet a $100,000 per QALY threshold.

Opioid analgesic misuse is associated with incomplete antiretroviral adherence in a cohort of HIV-infected indigent adults in San Francisco.

There is little or no data examining the association between either pain or the use or misuse of opioid analgesic with adherence to antiretroviral medications (ARVs) among HIV-infected adults. We interviewed a community-based cohort of HIV-infected indigent adults prescribed antiretroviral medications (ARVs) quarterly to examine the association between (1) pain, (2) receipt of opioid analgesics, and (3) opioid analgesic misuse with self-reported ARV adherence. Of 281 participants, most (82.5 %) reported severe or moderate pain, half (52.4 %) received a prescription for opioids, and one quarter (24.6 %) misused opioid analgesics. Most (71.9 %) reported >90 % ARV adherence. In a GEE model, neither pain (unadjusted OR 1.14, CI 0.90­1.45) nor prescription of opioid analgesics (unadjusted OR 1.11, CI 0.84­1.49) were significantly associated with ARV adherence. Misuse of opioid analgesics was associated with incomplete adherence (AOR 1.42, CI 1.09­1.86). Individuals who misuse opioid analgesics, like those who use illicit substances, may have difficulty adhering to medication regimens.

Smoking behaviors in a community-based cohort of HIV-infected indigent adults.

We conducted a longitudinal study of a community-based cohort of HIV-infected indigent adults to examine smoking behaviors and factors associated with quitting. We assessed "hardcore" smoking behaviors associated with a low probability of quitting. Of the 296 participants, 218 were current smokers (73.6 %). The prevalence of "hardcore" smoking was high: 59.6 % smoked ≥15 cigarettes per day, and 67.3 % were daily smokers. During the study interval, 20.6 % made at least one quit attempt. Of these, 53.3 % were abstinent at 6 months. The successful quit rate over 2 years was 4.6 %. Illegal substance use (adjusted odds ratio, AOR 0.2, 95 % CI 0.1-0.6) and smoking within 30 min of waking (AOR 0.2, 95 % CI 0.1-0.7) were associated with lower likelihood of making a quit attempt. Interventions that reduce nicotine dependence prior to smoking cessation and those that are integrated with substance use treatment may be effective for this population.

The burden of premature coronary heart disease among adults with low socioeconomic status in Argentina: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The well-established inverse relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) cannot be explained solely by differences in traditional risk factors. OBJECTIVE: To model the role SES plays in the burden of premature CHD in Argentina. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina to project incident CHD events and mortality in low and high-SES Argentinean adults 35 to 64 years of age from 2015 to 2024. Using data from the 2018 National Risk Factor Survey, we defined low SES as not finishing high-school and/or reporting a household income in quintiles 1 or 2. We designed simulations to apportion CHD outcomes in low SES adults to: (1) differences in the prevalence of traditional risk factors between low and high SES adults; (2) nontraditional risk associated with low SES status; (3) preventable events if risk factors were improved to ideal levels; and (4) underlying age- and sex-based risk. RESULTS: 56% of Argentina´s 35- to 64-year-old population has low SES. Both high and low SES groups have poor control of traditional risk factors. Compared with high SES population, low SES population had nearly 2-fold higher rates of incident CHD and CHD deaths per 10 000 person-years (incident CHD: men 80.8 [95%CI 76.6-84.9] vs 42.9 [95%CI 37.4-48.1], women 39.0 [95%CI 36.-41.2] vs 18.6 [95%CI 16.3-20.9]; CHD deaths: men 10.0 [95%CI 9.5-10.5] vs 6.0 [95%CI 5.6-6.4], women 3.2 [95%CI 3.0-3.4] vs 1.8 [95%CI 1.7-1.9]). Nontraditional low SES risk accounts for 73.5% and 70.4% of the event rate gap between SES levels for incident CHD and CHD mortality rates, respectively. DISCUSSION: CHD prevention policies in Argentina should address contextual aspects linked to SES, such as access to education or healthcare, and should also aim to implement known clinical strategies to achieve better control of CHD risk factors in all socioeconomic levels.

Projected Impact of Nonpharmacologic Management of Stage 1 Hypertension Among Lower-Risk US Adults.

BACKGROUND: The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure guideline classified 31 million US adults as having stage 1 hypertension and recommended clinicians provide counseling on behavioral change to the low-risk portion of this group. However, nationwide reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated health care expenditures achievable by nonpharmacologic therapy remain unquantified. METHODS: We simulated interventions on a target population of US adults aged 35 to 64 years, identified from the 2015-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with low-risk stage 1 systolic hypertension: that is, untreated systolic blood pressure 130 to 139 mm Hg with diastolic BP <90 mm Hg; no history of CVD, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease; and a low 10-year risk of CVD. We used meta-analyses and trials to estimate the effects of population-level behavior modification on systolic blood pressure. We assessed the extent to which restricting intervention to those in regular contact with clinicians might prevent the delivery of nonpharmacologic therapy. RESULTS: Controlling systolic blood pressure to <130 mm Hg among the 8.8 million low-risk US adults with stage 1 hypertension could prevent 26 100 CVD events, avoid 2900 deaths, and save $1.7 billion in total direct health care costs over 10 years. Adoption of the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension diet could prevent 28 000 CVD events. Other nonpharmacologic interventions could avert between 3800 and 19 500 CVD events. However, only 51% of men and 75% of women regularly interacted with clinicians for counseling opportunities. CONCLUSIONS: Among low-risk adults with stage 1 hypertension, substantial benefits to cardiovascular health could be achieved through public policy that promotes the adoption of nonpharmacologic therapy.

Projected Impact of Nonpharmacologic Management of Stage 1 Hypertension Among Lower-Risk US Adults.

Background: The 2017 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines newly classified 31 million US adults as having stage 1 hypertension. The ACC/AHA guidelines recommend behavioral change without pharmacology for the low-risk portion of this group. However, the nationwide reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated healthcare expenditures achievable by evidence-based dietary improvements, sustained weight loss, adequate physical activity, and alcohol moderation remain unquantified. We estimated the effect of systolic BP (SBP) control and behavioral changes on 10-year CVD outcomes and costs. Methods: We used the CVD Policy Model to simulate CVD events, mortality, and healthcare costs among US adults aged 35-64. We simulated interventions on a target population, identified from the 2015-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with low-risk stage 1 systolic hypertension: defined as untreated SBP 130-139 mmHg and diastolic BP <90 mmHg; no history of CVD, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease; and low 10-year risk of CVD. We used published meta-analyses and trials to estimate the effects of behavior modification on SBP. We assessed the extent to which intermittent healthcare utilization or partial uptake of nonpharmacologic therapy would decrease CVD events prevented. Results: Controlling SBP to <130 mmHg among the estimated 8.8 million U.S. adults (51% women) in the target population could prevent 26,100 CVD events, avoid 2,900 deaths, and save $1.6 billion in healthcare costs over 10 years. The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet could prevent 16,000 CVD events among men and 12,000 among women over a decade. Other nonpharmacologic interventions could avert between 3,700 and 19,500 CVD events. However, only 5.5 million (61%) of the target population regularly utilized healthcare where recommended clinician counseling could occur. Conclusions: As only two-thirds of U.S. adults with Stage 1 hypertension regularly receive medical care, substantial benefits to cardiovascular health and associated costs may only stem from policies that promote widespread adoption and sustained adherence of nonpharmacologic therapy. Future work should quantify the population-level costs, benefits, and efficacy of improving the food system and local infrastructure on health behavior change.

AddREssing Social Determinants TO pRevent hypErtension (The RESTORE Network): Overview of the Health Equity Research Network to Prevent Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association funded a Health Equity Research Network on the prevention of hypertension, the RESTORE Network, as part of its commitment to achieving health equity in all communities. This article provides an overview of the RESTORE Network. METHODS: The RESTORE Network includes five independent, randomized trials testing approaches to implement non-pharmacological interventions that have been proven to lower blood pressure (BP). The trials are community-based, taking place in churches in rural Alabama, mobile health units in Michigan, barbershops in New York, community health centers in Maryland, and food deserts in Massachusetts. Each trial employs a hybrid effectiveness-implementation research design to test scalable and sustainable strategies that mitigate social determinants of health (SDOH) that contribute to hypertension in Black communities. The primary outcome in each trial is change in systolic BP. The RESTORE Network Coordinating Center has five cores: BP measurement, statistics, intervention, community engagement, and training that support the trials. Standardized protocols, data elements and analysis plans were adopted in each trial to facilitate cross-trial comparisons of the implementation strategies, and application of a standard costing instrument for health economic evaluations, scale up, and policy analysis. Herein, we discuss future RESTORE Network research plans and policy outreach activities designed to advance health equity by preventing hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: The RESTORE Network was designed to promote health equity in the US by testing effective and sustainable implementation strategies focused on addressing SDOH to prevent hypertension among Black adults.