Cost-benefit analysis of ecosystem modeling to support fisheries management.

Mathematical and statistical models underlie many of the world's most important fisheries management decisions. Since the 19th century, difficulty calibrating and fitting such models has been used to justify the selection of simple, stationary, single-species models to aid tactical fisheries management decisions. Whereas these justifications are reasonable, it is imperative that we quantify the value of different levels of model complexity for supporting fisheries management, especially given a changing climate, where old methodologies may no longer perform as well as in the past. Here we argue that cost-benefit analysis is an ideal lens to assess the value of model complexity in fisheries management. While some studies have reported the benefits of model complexity in fisheries, modeling costs are rarely considered. In the absence of cost data in the literature, we report, as a starting point, relative costs of single-species stock assessment and marine ecosystem models from two Australian organizations. We found that costs varied by two orders of magnitude, and that ecosystem model costs increased with model complexity. Using these costs, we walk through a hypothetical example of cost-benefit analysis. The demonstration is intended to catalyze the reporting of modeling costs and benefits.

Improving coral cover using an integrated pest management framework.

Integrated pest management (IPM) leverages our understanding of ecological interactions to mitigate the impact of pest species on economically and/or ecologically important assets. It has primarily been applied in terrestrial settings (e.g., agriculture), but has rarely been attempted for marine ecosystems. The crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS), Acanthaster spp., is a voracious coral predator throughout the Indo-Pacific where it undergoes large population increases (irruptions), termed outbreaks. During outbreaks CoTS act as a pest species and can result in substantial coral loss. Contemporary management of CoTS on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) adopts facets of the IPM paradigm to manage these outbreaks through strategic use of direct manual control (culling) of individuals in response to ecologically based target thresholds. There has, however, been limited quantitative analysis of how to optimize the implementation of such thresholds. Here we use a multispecies modeling approach to assess the performance of alternative CoTS management scenarios for improving coral cover trajectories. The scenarios examined varied in terms of their ecological threshold target, the sensitivity of the threshold, and the level of management resourcing. Our approach illustrates how to quantify multidimensional trade-offs in resourcing constraints, concurrent CoTS and coral population dynamics, the stringency of target thresholds, and the geographical scale of management outcomes (number of sites). We found strategies with low target density thresholds for CoTS (≤0.03 CoTS min-1 ) could act as "Effort Sinks" and limit the number of sites that could be effectively controlled, particularly under CoTS population outbreaks. This was because a handful of sites took longer to control, which meant other sites were not controlled. Higher density thresholds (e.g., 0.04-0.08 CoTS min-1 ), tuned to levels of coral cover, diluted resources among sites but were more robust to resourcing constraints and pest population dynamics. Our study highlights trade-off decisions when using an IPM framework and informs the implementation of threshold-based strategies on the GBR.

Redesigning harvest strategies for sustainable fishery management in the face of extreme environmental variability.

Short-lived, fast-growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock-environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheries management. We applied a management strategy evaluation approach for one of Australia's large prawn stocks to test the robustness of harvest control rules to environmental variability. The model ensemble included coupled environmental-population models and an alternative catchability scenario fitted to historical catch per unit effort data. We compared the efficacy of alternative management actions to conserve marine resources under a variable environment while accounting for fisher livelihoods. Model fits to catch per unit effort were reasonably good and similar across operating models (OMs). For models that were coupled to the environment, environmental parameters for El Niño years were estimated with good associated precision, and OM3 had a lower AIC score (77.61)  than the base model (OM1, 80.39), whereas OM2 (AIC 82.41) had a similar AIC score, suggesting the OMs were all plausible model alternatives. Our model testing resulted in a plausible subset of management options, and stakeholders selected a permanent closure of the first fishing season based on overall performance of this option; ability to reduce the risk of fishery closure and stock collapse; robustness to uncertainties; and ease of implementation. Our simulation approach enabled the selection of an optimal yet pragmatic solution for addressing economic and conservation objectives under a variable environment with extreme events.

Rediseño de las Estrategias de Captura para el Manejo de Pesquerías Sustentables de Caraa una Variabilidad Ambiental Extrema Resumen Las especies de vida corta y rápido crecimiento que contribuyen enormemente a la captura mundial de las pesquerías son sensibles a las fluctuaciones en el ambiente. La incertidumbre en torno a las relaciones exactas entre el ambiente y el stock ha representado una dificultad para integrar directamente la variabilidad y los extremos ambientales a la gestión de las pesquerías. Aplicamos un enfoque de evaluación de estrategia de manejo (EEM) para uno de los stocks de camarones de Australia y así analizar la solidez de las reglas de control de captura para la variabilidad ambiental. El ensamblado modelo incluyó modelos ambientales-poblacionales emparejados y un escenario alternativo de capturabilidad ajustado a los datos históricos de esfuerzo de captura por unidad. Comparamos la eficiencia de acciones alternativas de manejo para conservar los recursos marinos bajo un ambiente variable teniendo en cuenta el sustento de los pescadores. Los ajustes del modelo para el esfuerzo de captura por unidad fueron razonablemente buenos y similares en los modelos operantes (MO). Para los modelos que estuvieron emparejados con el ambiente, los parámetros ambientales para los años de El Niño estuvieron estimados con una buena precisión asociada, y el MO3 tuvo un puntaje AIC menor (77.61) que el modelo base (MO1, 80.39), mientras que el MO2 (AIC 82.41) tuvo un puntaje AIC similar, lo que sugiere que los MO eran todos modelos plausibles alternativos. Nuestro análisis de los modelos resultó en un subconjunto plausible de opciones de manejo, y los actores seleccionaron un cierre permanente de la primera temporada de pesca con base en el desempeño general de esta opción, la habilidad para reducir el riesgo del cierre de la pesquería y el colapso del stock, la solidez ante las incertidumbres y la facilidad de implementación. Nuestra estrategia de simulación permitió la selección de una solución óptima pero pragmática para abordar los objetivos económicos y de conservación bajo un ambiente variable con eventos extremos.

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change.

Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.

Great Barrier Reef recovery through multiple interventions.

The decline of coral cover on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has largely been attributed to the cumulative pressures of tropical cyclones, temperature-induced coral bleaching, and predation by crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS). In such a complex system, the effectiveness of any management intervention will become apparent only over decadal time scales. Systems modeling approaches are therefore essential to formulating and testing alternative management strategies. For a network of reefs, we developed a metacommunity model that incorporated the cumulative pressures of tropical cyclones, coral bleaching, predation, and competition between corals. We then tested the response of coral cover to management interventions including catchment restoration to reduce discharge onto the reef during cyclone-induced flood events and enhanced protection of trophic networks supporting predation of CoTS. Model results showed good agreement with long-term monitoring of the GBR, including cyclical outbreaks of CoTS driven by predator-prey dynamics on the network of reefs. Testing of intervention strategies showed that catchment restoration would likely improve coral cover. However, strategies that combined catchment restoration with enhanced CoTS predation were far more effective than catchment restoration alone.

Oceans of plenty? Challenges, advancements, and future directions for the provision of evidence-based fisheries management advice.

Marine population modeling, which underpins the scientific advice to support fisheries interventions, is an active research field with recent advancements to address modern challenges (e.g., climate change) and enduring issues (e.g., data limitations). Based on discussions during the 'Land of Plenty' session at the 2021 World Fisheries Congress, we synthesize current challenges, recent advances, and interdisciplinary developments in biological fisheries models (i.e., data-limited, stock assessment, spatial, ecosystem, and climate), management strategy evaluation, and the scientific advice that bridges the science-policy interface. Our review demonstrates that proliferation of interdisciplinary research teams and enhanced data collection protocols have enabled increased integration of spatiotemporal, ecosystem, and socioeconomic dimensions in many fisheries models. However, not all management systems have the resources to implement model-based advice, while protocols for sharing confidential data are lacking and impeding research advances. We recommend that management and modeling frameworks continue to adopt participatory co-management approaches that emphasize wider inclusion of local knowledge and stakeholder input to fill knowledge gaps and promote information sharing. Moreover, fisheries management, by which we mean the end-to-end process of data collection, scientific analysis, and implementation of evidence-informed management actions, must integrate improved communication, engagement, and capacity building, while incorporating feedback loops at each stage. Increasing application of management strategy evaluation is viewed as a critical unifying component, which will bridge fisheries modeling disciplines, aid management decision-making, and better incorporate the array of stakeholders, thereby leading to a more proactive, pragmatic, transparent, and inclusive management framework-ensuring better informed decisions in an uncertain world. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-022-09726-7.

The Scotia Sea krill fishery and its possible impacts on dependent predators: modeling localized depletion of prey.

The nature and impact of fishing on predators that share a fished resource is an important consideration in ecosystem-based fisheries management. Krill (Euphausia superba) is a keystone species in the Antarctic, serving as a fundamental forage source for predators and simultaneously being subject to fishing. We developed a spatial multispecies operating model (SMOM) of krill-predator fishery dynamics to help advise on allocation of the total krill catch among 15 small-scale management units (SSMUs) in the Scotia Sea, with a goal to reduce the potential impact of fishing on krill predators. The operating model describes the underlying population dynamics and is used in simulations to compare different management options for adjusting fishing activities (e.g., a different spatial distribution of catches). The numerous uncertainties regarding the choice of parameter values pose a major impediment to constructing reliable ecosystem models. The pragmatic solution proposed here involves the use of operating models that are composed of alternative combinations of parameters that essentially try to bound the uncertainty in, for example, the choice of survival rate estimates as well as the functional relationships between predators and prey. Despite the large uncertainties, it is possible to discriminate the ecosystem impacts of different spatial fishing allocations. The spatial structure of the model is fundamental to addressing concerns of localized depletion of prey in the vicinity of land-based predator breeding colonies. Results of the model have been considered in recent management deliberations for spatial allocations of krill catches in the Scotia Sea and their associated impacts on dependent predator species.

Culling corallivores improves short-term coral recovery under bleaching scenarios.

Management of coral predators, corallivores, is recommended to improve coral cover on tropical coral reefs under projected increasing levels of accumulated thermal stress, but whether corallivore management can improve coral cover, which is necessary for large-scale operationalisation, remains equivocal. Here, using a multispecies ecosystem model, we investigate intensive management of an invertebrate corallivore, the Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and show that culling could improve coral cover at sub-reef spatial scales, but efficacy varied substantially within and among reefs. Simulated thermal stress events attenuated management-derived coral cover improvements and was dependent on the level of accumulated thermal stress, the thermal sensitivity of coral communities and the rate of corallivore recruitment at fine spatial scales. Corallivore management was most effective when accumulated thermal stress was low, coral communities were less sensitive to heat stress and in areas of high corallivore recruitment success. Our analysis informs how to manage a pest species to promote coral cover under future thermal stress events.

Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef.

On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effective interventions are implemented. Evaluating the efficacy of alternative interventions in a complex system experiencing major cumulative impacts can only be achieved through a systems modelling approach. We have evaluated combinations of interventions using a coral reef meta-community model. The model consisted of a dynamic network of 3753 reefs supporting communities of corals and CoTS connected through ocean larval dispersal, and exposed to changing regimes of tropical cyclones, flood plumes, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. Interventions included reducing flood plume impacts, expanding control of CoTS populations, stabilizing coral rubble, managing solar radiation and introducing heat-tolerant coral strains. Without intervention, all climate scenarios resulted in precipitous declines in GBR coral cover over the next 50 years. The most effective strategies in delaying decline were combinations that protected coral from both predation (CoTS control) and thermal stress (solar radiation management) deployed at large scale. Successful implementation could expand opportunities for climate action, natural adaptation and socioeconomic adjustment by at least one to two decades.

Relative efficacy of three approaches to mitigate Crown-of-Thorns Starfish outbreaks on Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

Population outbreaks of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (COTS; Acanthaster spp.) are a major contributor to loss of hard coral throughout the Indo-Pacific. On Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), management interventions have evolved over four COTS outbreaks to include: (1) manual COTS control, (2) Marine Protected Area (MPA) zoning, and, (3) water quality improvement. Here we evaluate the contribution of these three approaches to managing population outbreaks of COTS to minimize coral loss. Strategic manual control at sites reduced COTS numbers, including larger, more fecund and damaging individuals. Sustained reduction in COTS densities and improvements in hard coral cover at a site were achieved through repeated control visits. MPAs influenced initial COTS densities but only marginally influenced final hard coral cover following COTS control. Water quality improvement programs have achieved only marginal reductions in river nutrient loads delivered to the GBR and the study region. This, a subsequent COTS outbreak, and declining coral cover across the region suggest their contributions are negligible. These findings support manual control as the most direct, and only effective, means of reducing COTS densities and improving hard coral cover currently available at a site. We provide recommendations for improving control program effectiveness with application to supporting reef resilience across the Indo-Pacific.

Assessing Different Causes of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish Outbreaks and Appropriate Responses for Management on the Great Barrier Reef.

The crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (COTS) has contributed greatly to declines in coral cover on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, and remains one of the major acute disturbances on Indo-Pacific coral reefs. Despite uncertainty about the underlying causes of outbreaks and the management responses that might address them, few studies have critically and directly compared competing hypotheses. This study uses qualitative modelling to compare hypotheses relating to outbreak initiation, explicitly considering the potential role of positive feedbacks, elevated nutrients, and removal of starfish predators by fishing. When nutrients and fishing are considered in isolation, the models indicate that a range of alternative hypotheses are capable of explaining outbreak initiation with similar levels of certainty. The models also suggest that outbreaks may be caused by multiple factors operating simultaneously, rather than by single proximal causes. As the complexity and realism of the models increased, the certainty of outcomes decreased, but key areas that require further research to improve the structure of the models were identified. Nutrient additions were likely to result in outbreaks only when COTS larvae alone benefitted from nutrients. Similarly, the effects of fishing on the decline of corals depended on the complexity of interactions among several categories of fishes. Our work suggests that management approaches which seek to be robust to model structure uncertainty should allow for multiple potential causes of outbreaks. Monitoring programs can provide tests of alternative potential causes of outbreaks if they specifically monitor all key taxa at reefs that are exposed to appropriate combinations of potential causal factors.

Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles.

Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with 'no-action' counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human-ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential 'surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm.

A quantitative metric to identify critical elements within seafood supply networks.

A theoretical basis is required for comparing key features and critical elements in wild fisheries and aquaculture supply chains under a changing climate. Here we develop a new quantitative metric that is analogous to indices used to analyse food-webs and identify key species. The Supply Chain Index (SCI) identifies critical elements as those elements with large throughput rates, as well as greater connectivity. The sum of the scores for a supply chain provides a single metric that roughly captures both the resilience and connectedness of a supply chain. Standardised scores can facilitate cross-comparisons both under current conditions as well as under a changing climate. Identification of key elements along the supply chain may assist in informing adaptation strategies to reduce anticipated future risks posed by climate change. The SCI also provides information on the relative stability of different supply chains based on whether there is a fairly even spread in the individual scores of the top few key elements, compared with a more critical dependence on a few key individual supply chain elements. We use as a case study the Australian southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii fishery, which is challenged by a number of climate change drivers such as impacts on recruitment and growth due to changes in large-scale and local oceanographic features. The SCI identifies airports, processors and Chinese consumers as the key elements in the lobster supply chain that merit attention to enhance stability and potentially enable growth. We also apply the index to an additional four real-world Australian commercial fishery and two aquaculture industry supply chains to highlight the utility of a systematic method for describing supply chains. Overall, our simple methodological approach to empirically-based supply chain research provides an objective method for comparing the resilience of supply chains and highlighting components that may be critical.