Joint models for dynamic prediction in localised prostate cancer: a literature review.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is a very prevalent disease in men. Patients are monitored regularly during and after treatment with repeated assessment of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels. Prognosis of localised prostate cancer is generally good after treatment, and the risk of having a recurrence is usually estimated based on factors measured at diagnosis. Incorporating PSA measurements over time in a dynamic prediction joint model enables updates of patients' risk as new information becomes available. We review joint model strategies that have been applied to model time-dependent PSA trajectories to predict time-to-event outcomes in localised prostate cancer. METHODS: We identify articles that developed joint models for prediction of localised prostate cancer recurrence over the last two decades. We report, compare, and summarise the methodological approaches and applications that use joint modelling accounting for two processes: the longitudinal model (PSA), and the time-to-event process (clinical failure). The methods explored differ in how they specify the association between these two processes. RESULTS: Twelve relevant articles were identified. A range of methodological frameworks were found, and we describe in detail shared-parameter joint models (9 of 12, 75%) and joint latent class models (3 of 12, 25%). Within each framework, these articles presented model development, estimation of dynamic predictions and model validations. CONCLUSIONS: Each framework has its unique principles with corresponding advantages and differing interpretations. Regardless of the framework used, dynamic prediction models enable real-time prediction of individual patient prognosis. They utilise all available longitudinal information, in addition to baseline prognostic risk factors, and are superior to traditional baseline-only prediction models.

Hypofractionated radiotherapy in locally advanced bladder cancer: an individual patient data meta-analysis of the BC2001 and BCON trials.

BACKGROUND: Two radiotherapy fractionation schedules are used to treat locally advanced bladder cancer: 64 Gy in 32 fractions over 6·5 weeks and a hypofractionated schedule of 55 Gy in 20 fractions over 4 weeks. Long-term outcomes of these schedules in several cohort studies and case series suggest that response, survival, and toxicity are similar, but no direct comparison has been published. The present study aimed to assess the non-inferiority of 55 Gy in 20 fractions to 64 Gy in 32 fractions in terms of invasive locoregional control and late toxicity in patients with locally advanced bladder cancer. METHODS: We did a meta-analysis of individual patient data from patients (age ≥18 years) with locally advanced bladder cancer (T1G3 [high-grade non-muscle invasive] or T2-T4, N0M0) enrolled in two multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trials done in the UK: BC2001 (NCT00024349; assessing addition of chemotherapy to radiotherapy) and BCON (NCT00033436; assessing hypoxia-modifying therapy combined with radiotherapy). In each trial, the fractionation schedule was chosen according to local standard practice. Co-primary endpoints were invasive locoregional control (non-inferiority margin hazard ratio [HR]=1·25); and late bladder or rectum toxicity, assessed with the Late Effects Normal Tissue Task Force-Subjective, Objective, Management, Analytic tool (non-inferiority margin for absolute risk difference [RD]=10%). If non-inferiority was met for invasive locoregional control, superiority could be considered if the 95% CI for the treatment effect excluded the null effect (HR=1). One-stage individual patient data meta-analysis models for the time-to-event and binary outcomes were used, accounting for trial differences, within-centre correlation, randomised treatment received, baseline variable imbalances, and potential confounding from relevant prognostic factors. FINDINGS: 782 patients with known fractionation schedules (456 from the BC2001 trial and 326 from the BCON trial; 376 (48%) received 64 Gy in 32 fractions and 406 (52%) received 55 Gy in 20 fractions) were included in our meta-analysis. Median follow-up was 120 months (IQR 99-159). Patients who received 55 Gy in 20 fractions had a lower risk of invasive locoregional recurrence than those who received 64 Gy in 32 fractions (adjusted HR 0·71 [95% CI 0·52-0·96]). Both schedules had similar toxicity profiles (adjusted RD -3·37% [95% CI -11·85 to 5·10]). INTERPRETATION: A hypofractionated schedule of 55 Gy in 20 fractions is non-inferior to 64 Gy in 32 fractions with regard to both invasive locoregional control and toxicity, and is superior with regard to invasive locoregional control. 55 Gy in 20 fractions should be adopted as a standard of care for bladder preservation in patients with locally advanced bladder cancer. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Biomarkers for site-specific response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in epithelial ovarian cancer: relating MRI changes to tumour cell load and necrosis.

BACKGROUND: Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) potentially interrogates site-specific response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). METHODS: Participants with newly diagnosed EOC due for platinum-based chemotherapy and interval debulking surgery were recruited prospectively in a multicentre study (n = 47 participants). Apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and solid tumour volume (up to 10 lesions per participant) were obtained from DW-MRI before and after NAC (including double-baseline for repeatability assessment in n = 19). Anatomically matched lesions were analysed after surgical excision (65 lesions obtained from 25 participants). A trained algorithm determined tumour cell fraction, percentage tumour and percentage necrosis on histology. Whole-lesion post-NAC ADC and pre/post-NAC ADC changes were compared with histological metrics (residual tumour/necrosis) for each tumour site (ovarian, omental, peritoneal, lymph node). RESULTS: Tumour volume reduced at all sites after NAC. ADC increased between pre- and post-NAC measurements. Post-NAC ADC correlated negatively with tumour cell fraction. Pre/post-NAC changes in ADC correlated positively with percentage necrosis. Significant correlations were driven by peritoneal lesions. CONCLUSIONS: Following NAC in EOC, the ADC (measured using DW-MRI) increases differentially at disease sites despite similar tumour shrinkage, making its utility site-specific. After NAC, ADC correlates negatively with tumour cell fraction; change in ADC correlates positively with percentage necrosis. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01505829.

ATARI trial: ATR inhibitor in combination with olaparib in gynecological cancers with ARID1A loss or no loss (ENGOT/GYN1/NCRI).

BACKGROUND: ARID1A (AT-rich interactive domain containing protein 1A) loss-of-function mutations have been reported in gynecological cancers, including rarer subtypes such as clear cell carcinoma. Preclinical studies indicate that ARID1A mutant cancers display sensitivity to ATR inhibition while tumors without ARID1A mutations may be sensitive to Ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3 related (ATR) inhibitors in combination with poly-ADP ribose polymerase (PARP) inhibitors. PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the ATR inhibitor, ceralasertib, has clinical activity as a single agent and in combination with the PARP inhibitor, olaparib, in patients with ARID1A 'loss' and 'no loss' clear cell carcinomas and other relapsed gynecological cancers. STUDY HYPOTHESIS: ARID1A deficient clear cell carcinoma of the ovary or endometrium is sensitive to ATR inhibition, while the combination of ATR and PARP inhibition has activity in other gynecological tumors, irrespective of ARID1A status. TRIAL DESIGN: ATARI (ENGOT/GYN1/NCRI) is a multicenter, international, proof-of-concept, phase II, parallel cohort trial assessing ceralasertib activity as a single agent and in combination with olaparib in ARID1A stratified gynecological cancers. Patients with relapsed ovarian/endometrial clear cell carcinoma with ARID1A loss will receive ceralasertib monotherapy (cohort 1A). Relapsed ovarian/endometrial clear cell carcinoma patients with no ARID1A loss (cohort 2) or patients with other histological subtypes (endometrioid, carcinosarcoma, cervical) (cohort 3) will receive combination therapy (olaparib/ceralasertib). Treatment will continue until disease progression. MAJOR INCLUSION/EXCLUSION CRITERIA: Patients with histologically confirmed recurrent clear cell (ovarian, endometrial, or endometriosis related), endometrioid (ovarian, endometrial, or endometriosis related), cervical (adenocarcinomas or squamous), or carcinosarcomas (ovarian or endometrial) are eligible. Patients progressing after ≥1 prior platinum with evidence of measurable (RECIST v1.1) radiological disease progression since last systemic anticancer therapy and prior to trial entry are eligible. Previous ATR or PARP inhibitor treatment is not permissible. PRIMARY ENDPOINT: Best overall objective response rate (RECIST v1.1). SAMPLE SIZE: A minimum of 40 and a maximum of 116. ESTIMATED DATES FOR COMPLETING ACCRUAL AND PRESENTING RESULTS: Accrual is anticipated to be complete by the second quarter of 2022, with reporting of results by the fourth quarter of 2022. Overall accrual targets and reporting timelines are dependent on individual cohort progression to stage 2. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT0405269.

Olaparib in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer with DNA repair gene aberrations (TOPARP-B): a multicentre, open-label, randomised, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer is enriched in DNA damage response (DDR) gene aberrations. The TOPARP-B trial aims to prospectively validate the association between DDR gene aberrations and response to olaparib in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. METHODS: In this open-label, investigator-initiated, randomised phase 2 trial following a selection (or pick-the-winner) design, we recruited participants from 17 UK hospitals. Men aged 18 years or older with progressing metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer previously treated with one or two taxane chemotherapy regimens and with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 2 or less had tumour biopsies tested with targeted sequencing. Patients with DDR gene aberrations were randomly assigned (1:1) by a computer-generated minimisation method, with balancing for circulating tumour cell count at screening, to receive 400 mg or 300 mg olaparib twice daily, given continuously in 4-week cycles until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. Neither participants nor investigators were masked to dose allocation. The primary endpoint of confirmed response was defined as a composite of all patients presenting with any of the following outcomes: radiological objective response (as assessed by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors 1.1), a decrease in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) of 50% or more (PSA50) from baseline, or conversion of circulating tumour cell count (from ≥5 cells per 7·5 mL blood at baseline to <5 cells per 7·5 mL blood). A confirmed response in a consecutive assessment after at least 4 weeks was required for each component. The primary analysis was done in the evaluable population. If at least 19 (43%) of 44 evaluable patients in a dose cohort responded, then the dose cohort would be considered successful. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of olaparib. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01682772. Recruitment for the trial has completed and follow-up is ongoing. FINDINGS: 711 patients consented for targeted screening between April 1, 2015, and Aug 30, 2018. 161 patients had DDR gene aberrations, 98 of whom were randomly assigned and treated (49 patients for each olaparib dose), with 92 evaluable for the primary endpoint (46 patients for each olaparib dose). Median follow-up was 24·8 months (IQR 16·7-35·9). Confirmed composite response was achieved in 25 (54·3%; 95% CI 39·0-69·1) of 46 evaluable patients in the 400 mg cohort, and 18 (39·1%; 25·1-54·6) of 46 evaluable patients in the 300 mg cohort. Radiological response was achieved in eight (24·2%; 11·1-42·3) of 33 evaluable patients in the 400 mg cohort and six (16·2%; 6·2-32·0) of 37 in the 300 mg cohort; PSA50 response was achieved in 17 (37·0%; 23·2-52·5) of 46 and 13 (30·2%; 17·2-46·1) of 43; and circulating tumour cell count conversion was achieved in 15 (53·6%; 33·9-72·5) of 28 and 13 (48·1%; 28·7-68·1) of 27. The most common grade 3-4 adverse event in both cohorts was anaemia (15 [31%] of 49 patients in the 300 mg cohort and 18 [37%] of 49 in the 400 mg cohort). 19 serious adverse reactions were reported in 13 patients. One death possibly related to treatment (myocardial infarction) occurred after 11 days of treatment in the 300 mg cohort. INTERPRETATION: Olaparib has antitumour activity against metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer with DDR gene aberrations, supporting the implementation of genomic stratification of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer in clinical practice. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, AstraZeneca, Prostate Cancer UK, the Prostate Cancer Foundation, the Experimental Cancer Medicine Centres Network, and the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centres.

CALIBER: a phase II randomized feasibility trial of chemoablation with mitomycin-C vs surgical management in low-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the activity of intravesical mitomycin-C (MMC) to ablate recurrent low-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) and assess whether it may enable patients to avoid surgical intervention for treatment of recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: CALIBER is a phase II feasibility study. Participants were randomized (2:1) to treatment with four once-weekly MMC 40-mg intravesical instillations (chemoablation arm) or to surgical management. The surgical group was included to assess the feasibility of randomization. The primary endpoint was complete response to intravesical MMC in the chemoablation arm at 3 months, reported with exact 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Secondary endpoints included time to subsequent recurrence, summarized by Kaplan-Meier methods. RESULTS: Between February 2015 and August 2017, 82 patients with visual diagnosis of recurrent low-risk NMIBC were enrolled from 24 UK hospitals (chemoablation, n = 54; surgical management, n =28). The median follow-up was 24 months. Complete response at 3 months was 37.0% (20/54; 95% CI 24.3-51.3) with chemoablation and 80.8% (21/26; 95% CI 60.6-93.4) with surgical management. Amongst patients with complete response at 3 months, a similar proportion was recurrence-free by 12 months in both groups (84%). Amongst those with residual disease at 3 months, the 12-month recurrence-free proportion was lower in the surgical management group (40.0%) than in the chemoablation group (84%). Recruitment stopped early as chemoablation did not meet the prespecified threshold of 45% complete responses at 3 months. CONCLUSION: Intravesical chemoablation in low-risk NMIBC is feasible and safe, but did not demonstrate sufficient response in the present trial. After chemoablation there may be a reduction in recurrence rate, even in non-responders, that is greater than with surgery alone. Further research is required to investigate the role and optimal schedule of neoadjuvant intravesical chemotherapy prior to surgery for NMIBC.

DNA-Repair Defects and Olaparib in Metastatic Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is a heterogeneous disease, but current treatments are not based on molecular stratification. We hypothesized that metastatic, castration-resistant prostate cancers with DNA-repair defects would respond to poly(adenosine diphosphate [ADP]-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibition with olaparib. METHODS: We conducted a phase 2 trial in which patients with metastatic, castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with olaparib tablets at a dose of 400 mg twice a day. The primary end point was the response rate, defined either as an objective response according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, version 1.1, or as a reduction of at least 50% in the prostate-specific antigen level or a confirmed reduction in the circulating tumor-cell count from 5 or more cells per 7.5 ml of blood to less than 5 cells per 7.5 ml. Targeted next-generation sequencing, exome and transcriptome analysis, and digital polymerase-chain-reaction testing were performed on samples from mandated tumor biopsies. RESULTS: Overall, 50 patients were enrolled; all had received prior treatment with docetaxel, 49 (98%) had received abiraterone or enzalutamide, and 29 (58%) had received cabazitaxel. Sixteen of 49 patients who could be evaluated had a response (33%; 95% confidence interval, 20 to 48), with 12 patients receiving the study treatment for more than 6 months. Next-generation sequencing identified homozygous deletions, deleterious mutations, or both in DNA-repair genes--including BRCA1/2, ATM, Fanconi's anemia genes, and CHEK2--in 16 of 49 patients who could be evaluated (33%). Of these 16 patients, 14 (88%) had a response to olaparib, including all 7 patients with BRCA2 loss (4 with biallelic somatic loss, and 3 with germline mutations) and 4 of 5 with ATM aberrations. The specificity of the biomarker suite was 94%. Anemia (in 10 of the 50 patients [20%]) and fatigue (in 6 [12%]) were the most common grade 3 or 4 adverse events, findings that are consistent with previous studies of olaparib. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with the PARP inhibitor olaparib in patients whose prostate cancers were no longer responding to standard treatments and who had defects in DNA-repair genes led to a high response rate. (Funded by Cancer Research UK and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01682772; Cancer Research UK number, CRUK/11/029.).

The predictive and prognostic value of tumour necrosis in muscle invasive bladder cancer patients receiving radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy in the BC2001 trial (CRUK/01/004).

BACKGROUND: Severe chronic hypoxia is associated with tumour necrosis. In patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), necrosis is prognostic for survival following surgery or radiotherapy and predicts benefit from hypoxia modification of radiotherapy. Adding mitomycin C (MMC) and 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) chemotherapy to radiotherapy improved locoregional control (LRC) compared to radiotherapy alone in the BC2001 trial. We hypothesised that tumour necrosis would not predict benefit for the addition of MMC and 5-FU to radiotherapy, but would be prognostic. METHODS: Diagnostic tumour samples were available from 230 BC2001 patients. Tumour necrosis was scored on whole-tissue sections as absent or present, and its predictive and prognostic significance explored using Cox proportional hazards models. Survival estimates were obtained by Kaplan-Meier methods. RESULTS: Tumour necrosis was present in 88/230 (38%) samples. Two-year LRC estimates were 71% (95% CI 61-79%) for the MMC/5-FU chemoradiotherapy group and 49% (95% CI 38-59%) for the radiotherapy alone group. When analysed by tumour necrosis status, the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for MMC/5-FU vs. no chemotherapy were 0.46 (95% CI: 0.12-0.99; P=0.05, necrosis present) and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.31-0.98; P=0.04, necrosis absent). Multivariable analysis of prognosis for LRC by the presence vs. absence of necrosis yielded a HR=0.89 (95% CI 0.55-1.44, P=0.65). There was no significant association for necrosis as a predictive or prognostic factor with respect to overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: Tumour necrosis was neither predictive nor prognostic, and therefore MMC/5-FU is an appropriate radiotherapy-sensitising treatment in MIBC independent of necrosis status.

Diffusion-weighted Imaging as a Treatment Response Biomarker for Evaluating Bone Metastases in Prostate Cancer: A Pilot Study.

Purpose To determine the usefulness of whole-body diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) to assess the response of bone metastases to treatment in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Materials and Methods A phase II prospective clinical trial of the poly-(adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase inhibitor olaparib in mCRPC included a prospective magnetic resonance (MR) imaging substudy; the study was approved by the institutional research board, and written informed consent was obtained. Whole-body DWI was performed at baseline and after 12 weeks of olaparib administration by using 1.5-T MR imaging. Areas of abnormal signal intensity on DWI images in keeping with bone metastases were delineated to derive total diffusion volume (tDV); five target lesions were also evaluated. Associations of changes in volume of bone metastases and median apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) with response to treatment were assessed by using the Mann-Whitney test and logistic regression; correlation with prostate-specific antigen level and circulating tumor cell count were assessed by using Spearman correlation (r). Results Twenty-one patients were included. All six responders to olaparib showed a decrease in tDV, while no decrease was observed in all nonresponders; this difference between responders and nonresponders was significant (P = .001). Increases in median ADC were associated with increased odds of response (odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00, 1.15; P = .04). A positive association was detected between changes in tDV and best percentage change in prostate-specific antigen level and circulating tumor cell count (r = 0.63 [95% CI: 0.27, 0.83] and r = 0.77 [95% CI: 0.51, 0.90], respectively). When assessing five target lesions, decreases in volume were associated with response (odds ratio for volume increase, 0.89; 95% CI: 0.80, 0.99; P = .037). Conclusion This pilot study showed that decreases in volume and increases in median ADC of bone metastases assessed with whole-body DWI can potentially be used as indicators of response to olaparib in mCRPC. Online supplemental material is available for this article.

The melanoma-specific graded prognostic assessment does not adequately discriminate prognosis in a modern population with brain metastases from malignant melanoma.

BACKGROUND: The melanoma-specific graded prognostic assessment (msGPA) assigns patients with brain metastases from malignant melanoma to 1 of 4 prognostic groups. It was largely derived using clinical data from patients treated in the era that preceded the development of newer therapies such as BRAF, MEK and immune checkpoint inhibitors. Therefore, its current relevance to patients diagnosed with brain metastases from malignant melanoma is unclear. This study is an external validation of the msGPA in two temporally distinct British populations. METHODS: Performance of the msGPA was assessed in Cohort I (1997-2008, n=231) and Cohort II (2008-2013, n=162) using Kaplan-Meier methods and Harrell's c-index of concordance. Cox regression was used to explore additional factors that may have prognostic relevance. RESULTS: The msGPA does not perform well as a prognostic score outside of the derivation cohort, with suboptimal statistical calibration and discrimination, particularly in those patients with an intermediate prognosis. Extra-cerebral metastases, leptomeningeal disease, age and potential use of novel targeted agents after brain metastases are diagnosed, should be incorporated into future prognostic models. CONCLUSIONS: An improved prognostic score is required to underpin high-quality randomised controlled trials in an area with a wide disparity in clinical care.

Prevalence, risk factors and main features of adverse drug reactions leading to hospital admission.

PURPOSE: To assess the prevalence of hospital admission related to adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in a third-level hospital, to analyse the associated factors, and to describe the reactions and the drugs involved. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted for a 120-day period. Patients that were urgently hospitalized entered the study. The primary endpoint was the ADR-related urgent admission. A descriptive analysis of demographic, clinical, and drug-related variables was performed. The association between the likelihood of urgent admission due to ADRs and age, gender, and number of drugs used was analysed. A descriptive analysis of the suspected drugs and the reactions in ADR-related admissions was performed. RESULTS: Overall, 186 out of 4,403 hospital admissions were due to ADRs (prevalence: 4.2 % [95 % CI 3.7-4.8 %]). Age (≥65 years: OR 1.59 [95 % CI 1.10-2.29]) and number of drugs used at the time of admission (3-5 drugs: OR 5.07 [95 % CI 2.71-9.59]; 6-9 drugs: OR 5.90 [95 % CI 3.16-11.0]; ≥10 drugs: OR 8.94 [95 % CI 4.73-16.89]), but not gender, were identified as independent factors associated with ADR-related hospitalization. The overall in-hospital stay for patients admitted with ADRs amounted to 1,785 days. The ADRs were mainly type A reactions (92 %). Acute renal failure related to renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, haemorrhage due to anticoagulants, and upper gastrointestinal bleeding related to antiplatelet drugs and/or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were the most frequent. CONCLUSION: Over 4 % of urgent hospitalizations are caused by ADRs, which are dose-related and predictable in more than 90 % of cases. The main risk factors are advanced age and polypharmacy.

Nilotinib in KIT-driven advanced melanoma: Results from the phase II single-arm NICAM trial.

Mucosal (MM) and acral melanomas (AM) are rare melanoma subtypes of unmet clinical need; 15%-20% harbor KIT mutations potentially targeted by small-molecule inhibitors, but none yet approved in melanoma. This multicenter, single-arm Phase II trial (NICAM) investigates nilotinib safety and activity in KIT mutated metastatic MM and AM. KIT mutations are identified in 39/219 screened patients (18%); of 29/39 treated, 26 are evaluable for primary analysis. Six patients were alive and progression free at 6 months (local radiology review, 25%); 5/26 (19%) had objective response at 12 weeks; median OS was 7.7 months; ddPCR assay correctly identifies KIT alterations in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in 16/17 patients. Nilotinib is active in KIT-mutant AM and MM, comparable to other KIT inhibitors, with demonstrable activity in nonhotspot KIT mutations, supporting broadening of KIT evaluation in AM and MM. Our results endorse further investigations of nilotinib for the treatment of KIT-mutated melanoma. This clinical trial was registered with ISRCTN (ISRCTN39058880) and EudraCT (2009-012945-49).

A hypoxia biomarker does not predict benefit from giving chemotherapy with radiotherapy in the BC2001 randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: BC2001 showed combining chemotherapy (5-FU + mitomycin-C) with radiotherapy improves loco-regional disease-free survival in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). We previously showed a 24-gene hypoxia-associated signature predicted benefit from hypoxia-modifying radiosensitisation in BCON and hypothesised that only patients with low hypoxia scores (HSs) would benefit from chemotherapy in BC2001. BC2001 allowed conventional (64Gy/32 fractions) or hypofractionated (55Gy/20 fractions) radiotherapy. An exploratory analysis tested an additional hypothesis that hypofractionation reduces reoxygenation and would be detrimental for patients with hypoxic tumours. METHODS: RNA was extracted from pre-treatment biopsies (298 BC2001 patients), transcriptomic data generated (Affymetrix Clariom-S arrays), HSs calculated (median expression of 24-signature genes) and patients stratified as hypoxia-high or -low (cut-off: cohort median). PRIMARY ENDPOINT: invasive loco-regional control (ILRC); secondary overall survival. FINDINGS: Hypoxia affected overall survival (HR = 1.30; 95% CI 0.99-1.70; p = 0.062): more uncertainty for ILRC (HR = 1.29; 95% CI 0.82-2.03; p = 0.264). Benefit from chemotherapy was similar for patients with high or low HSs, with no interaction between HS and treatment arm. High HS associated with poor ILRC following hypofractionated (n = 90, HR 1.69; 95% CI 0.99-2.89 p = 0.057) but not conventional (n = 207, HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.28-1.80, p = 0.461) radiotherapy. The finding was confirmed in an independent cohort (BCON) where hypoxia associated with a poor prognosis for patients receiving hypofractionated (n = 51; HR 14.2; 95% CI 1.7-119; p = 0.015) but not conventional (n = 24, HR 1.04; 95% CI 0.07-15.5, p = 0.978) radiotherapy. INTERPRETATION: Tumour hypoxia status does not affect benefit from BC2001 chemotherapy. Hypoxia appears to affect fractionation sensitivity. Use of HSs to personalise treatment needs testing in a biomarker-stratified trial. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, NIHR, MRC.

Capivasertib in combination with enzalutamide for metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer after docetaxel and abiraterone: Results from the randomized phase II RE-AKT trial.

BACKGROUND: PTEN loss and aberrations in PI3K/AKT signaling kinases associate with poorer response to abiraterone acetate (AA) in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). In this study, we assessed antitumor activity of the AKT inhibitor capivasertib combined with enzalutamide in mCRPC with prior progression on AA and docetaxel. METHODS: This double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized phase 2 trial, recruited men ≥ 18 years with progressing mCRPC and performance status 0-2 from 15 UK centers. Randomized participants (1:1) received enzalutamide (160 mg orally, once daily) with capivasertib (400 mg)/ placebo orally, twice daily on an intermittent (4 days on, 3 days off) schedule. Primary endpoint was composite response rate (RR): RECIST 1.1 objective response, ≥ 50 % PSA decrease from baseline, or circulating tumor cell count conversion (from ≥ 5 at baseline to < 5 cells/7.5 mL). Subgroup analyses by PTENIHC status were pre-planned. RESULTS: Overall, 100 participants were randomized (50:50); 95 were evaluable for primary endpoint (47:48); median follow-up was 43 months. RR were 9/47 (19.1 %) enzalutamide/capivasertib and 9/48 (18.8 %) enzalutamide/placebo (absolute difference 0.4 % 90 %CI -12.8 to 13.6, p = 0.58), with similar results in the PTENIHC loss subgroup. Irrespective of treatment, OS was significantly worse for PTENIHC loss (10.1 months [95 %CI: 4.6-13.9] vs 14.8 months [95 %CI: 10.8-18]; p = 0.02). Most common treatment-emergent grade ≥ 3 adverse events for the combination were diarrhea (13 % vs 2 %) and fatigue (10 % vs 6 %). CONCLUSIONS: Combined capivasertib/enzalutamide was well tolerated but didn't significantly improve outcomes from abiraterone pre-treated mCRPC.

RNASEH2B loss and PARP inhibition in advanced prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials have suggested antitumor activity from PARP inhibition beyond homologous recombination deficiency (HRD). RNASEH2B loss is unrelated to HRD and preclinically sensitizes to PARP inhibition. The current study reports on RNASEH2B protein loss in advanced prostate cancer and its association with RB1 protein loss, clinical outcome and clonal dynamics during treatment with PARP inhibition in a prospective clinical trial. METHODS: Whole tumor biopsies from multiple cohorts of patients with advanced prostate cancer were interrogated using whole-exome sequencing (WES), RNA sequencing (bulk and single nucleus) and immunohistochemistry (IHC) for RNASEH2B and RB1. Biopsies from patients treated with olaparib in the TOPARP-A and TOPARP-B clinical trials were used to evaluate RNASEH2B clonal selection during olaparib treatment. RESULTS: Shallow co-deletion of RNASEH2B and adjacent RB1, co-located at chromosome 13q14, was common, deep co-deletion infrequent, and gene loss associated with lower mRNA expression. In castration-resistant PC (CRPC) biopsies, RNASEH2B and RB1 mRNA expression correlated, but single nucleus RNA sequencing indicated discordant loss of expression. IHC studies showed that loss of the two proteins often occurred independently, arguably due to stochastic second allele loss. Pre- and post-treatment metastatic CRPC (mCRPC) biopsy studies from BRCA1/2 wildtype tumors, treated on the TOPARP phase II trial, indicated that olaparib eradicates RNASEH2B-loss tumor subclones. CONCLUSION: PARP inhibition may benefit men suffering from mCRPC by eradicating tumor subclones with RNASEH2B loss. CLINICALTRIALS: gov NCT01682772FUNDING. AstraZeneca; Cancer Research UK; Medical Research Council; Cancer Research UK; Prostate Cancer UK; Movember Foundation; Prostate Cancer Foundation.

A Personalized Clinical Dynamic Prediction Model to Characterize Prognosis for Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer: Analysis of the CHHiP Phase 3 Trial.

PURPOSE: The CHHiP trial assessed moderately hypofractionated radiation therapy in localized prostate cancer. We utilized longitudinal prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements collected over time to evaluate and characterize patient prognosis. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We developed a clinical dynamic prediction joint model to predict the risk of biochemical or clinical recurrence. Modeling included repeated PSA values and adjusted for baseline prognostic risk factors of age, tumor characteristics, and treatment received. We included 3071 trial participants for model development using a mixed-effect submodel for the longitudinal PSAs and a time-to-event hazard submodel for predicting recurrence of prostate cancer. We evaluated how baseline prognostic factor subgroups affected the nonlinear PSA levels over time and quantified the association of PSA on time to recurrence. We assessed bootstrapped optimism-adjusted predictive performance on calibration and discrimination. Additionally, we performed comparative dynamic predictions on patients with contrasting prognostic factors and investigated PSA thresholds over landmark times to correlate with prognosis. RESULTS: Patients who developed recurrence had generally higher baseline and overall PSA values during follow-up and had an exponentially rising PSA in the 2 years before recurrence. Additionally, most baseline risk factors were significant in the mixed-effect and relative-risk submodels. PSA value and rate of change were predictive of recurrence. Predictive performance of the model was good across different prediction times over an 8-year period, with an overall mean area under the curve of 0.70, mean Brier score of 0.10, and mean integrated calibration index of 0.048; these were further improved for predictions after 5 years of accrued longitudinal posttreatment PSA assessments. PSA thresholds <0.23 ng/mL after 3 years were indicative of a minimal risk of recurrence by 8 years. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully developed a joint statistical model to predict prostate cancer recurrence, evaluating prognostic factors and longitudinal PSA. We showed dynamically updated PSA information can improve prognostication, which can be used to guide follow-up and treatment management options.

Clinical trial designs for evaluating and exploiting cancer evolution.

The evolution of drug-resistant cell subpopulations causes cancer treatment failure. Current preclinical evidence shows that it is possible to model herding of clonal evolution and collateral sensitivity where an initial treatment could favourably influence the response to a subsequent one. Novel therapy strategies exploiting this understanding are being considered, and clinical trial designs for steering cancer evolution are needed. Furthermore, preclinical evidence suggests that different subsets of drug-sensitive and resistant clones could compete between themselves for nutrients/blood supply, and clones that populate a tumour do so at the expense of other clones. Treatment paradigms based on this clinical application of exploiting cell-cell competition include intermittent dosing regimens or cycling different treatments before progression. This will require clinical trial designs different from the conventional practice of evaluating responses to individual therapy regimens. Next-generation sequencing to assess clonal dynamics longitudinally will improve current radiological assessment of clinical response/resistance and be incorporated into trials exploiting evolution. Furthermore, if understood, clonal evolution can be used to therapeutic advantage, improving patient outcomes based on a new generation of clinical trials.

First-in-human technique translation of oxygen-enhanced MRI to an MR Linac system in patients with head and neck cancer.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Tumour hypoxia is prognostic in head and neck cancer (HNC), associated with poor loco-regional control, poor survival and treatment resistance. The advent of hybrid MRI - radiotherapy linear accelerator or 'MR Linac' systems - could permit imaging for treatment adaptation based on hypoxic status. We sought to develop oxygen-enhanced MRI (OE-MRI) in HNC and translate the technique onto an MR Linac system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MRI sequences were developed in phantoms and 15 healthy participants. Next, 14 HNC patients (with 21 primary or local nodal tumours) were evaluated. Baseline tissue longitudinal relaxation time (T1) was measured alongside the change in 1/T1 (termed ΔR1) between air and oxygen gas breathing phases. We compared results from 1.5 T diagnostic MR and MR Linac systems. RESULTS: Baseline T1 had excellent repeatability in phantoms, healthy participants and patients on both systems. Cohort nasal concha oxygen-induced ΔR1 significantly increased (p < 0.0001) in healthy participants demonstrating OE-MRI feasibility. ΔR1 repeatability coefficients (RC) were 0.023-0.040 s-1 across both MR systems. The tumour ΔR1 RC was 0.013 s-1 and the within-subject coefficient of variation (wCV) was 25% on the diagnostic MR. Tumour ΔR1 RC was 0.020 s-1 and wCV was 33% on the MR Linac. ΔR1 magnitude and time-course trends were similar on both systems. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate first-in-human translation of volumetric, dynamic OE-MRI onto an MR Linac system, yielding repeatable hypoxia biomarkers. Data were equivalent on the diagnostic MR and MR Linac systems. OE-MRI has potential to guide future clinical trials of biology guided adaptive radiotherapy.

Image quality in whole-body MRI using the MY-RADS protocol in a prospective multi-centre multiple myeloma study.

BACKGROUND: The Myeloma Response Assessment and Diagnosis System (MY-RADS) guidelines establish a standardised acquisition and analysis pipeline for whole-body MRI (WB-MRI) in patients with myeloma. This is the first study to assess image quality in a multi-centre prospective trial using MY-RADS. METHODS: The cohort consisted of 121 examinations acquired across ten sites with a range of prior WB-MRI experience, three scanner manufacturers and two field strengths. Image quality was evaluated qualitatively by a radiologist and quantitatively using a semi-automated pipeline to quantify common artefacts and image quality issues. The intra- and inter-rater repeatability of qualitative and quantitative scoring was also assessed. RESULTS: Qualitative radiological scoring found that the image quality was generally good, with 94% of examinations rated as good or excellent and only one examination rated as non-diagnostic. There was a significant correlation between radiological and quantitative scoring for most measures, and intra- and inter-rater repeatability were generally good. When the quality of an overall examination was low, this was often due to low quality diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), where signal to noise ratio (SNR), anterior thoracic signal loss and brain geometric distortion were found as significant predictors of examination quality. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to successfully deliver a multi-centre WB-MRI study using the MY-RADS protocol involving scanners with a range of manufacturers, models and field strengths. Quantitative measures of image quality were developed and shown to be significantly correlated with radiological assessment. The SNR of DW images was identified as a significant factor affecting overall examination quality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03188172 , Registered on 15 June 2017. CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Good overall image quality, assessed both qualitatively and quantitatively, can be achieved in a multi-centre whole-body MRI study using the MY-RADS guidelines. KEY POINTS: • A prospective multi-centre WB-MRI study using MY-RADS can be successfully delivered. • Quantitative image quality metrics were developed and correlated with radiological assessment. • SNR in DWI was identified as a significant predictor of quality, allowing for rapid quality adjustment.

A dynamic model for the risk of bladder cancer progression.

We propose a multistate modeling approach to describe the observed evolution of patients diagnosed with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. On the basis of data from the Spanish Bladder Cancer/EPICURO study, we adjust a multistate model taking into account the disease-related events of interest (recurrence, progression, and disease-related deaths) as well as competing deaths due to other causes. We then develop a dynamic predictive process for bladder cancer progression, which allows the risk of a patient to be updated whenever new information of his or her evolution is available. By using specific measures of prospective accuracy in the presence of competing risks, the proposed dynamic model has shown to improve prediction accuracy and provides a more personalized management of bladder patients.