Changes in the Incidence of Invasive Bacterial Disease During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, 2014-2020.

BACKGROUND: Descriptions of changes in invasive bacterial disease (IBD) epidemiology during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States are limited. METHODS: We investigated changes in the incidence of IBD due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group A Streptococcus (GAS), and group B Streptococcus (GBS). We defined the COVID-19 pandemic period as 1 March to 31 December 2020. We compared observed IBD incidences during the pandemic to expected incidences, consistent with January 2014 to February 2020 trends. We conducted secondary analysis of a health care database to assess changes in testing by blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture during the pandemic. RESULTS: Compared with expected incidences, the observed incidences of IBD due to S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae, GAS, and GBS were 58%, 60%, 28%, and 12% lower during the pandemic period of 2020, respectively. Declines from expected incidences corresponded closely with implementation of COVID-19-associated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Significant declines were observed across all age and race groups, and surveillance sites for S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae. Blood and CSF culture testing rates during the pandemic were comparable to previous years. CONCLUSIONS: NPIs likely contributed to the decline in IBD incidence in the United States in 2020; observed declines were unlikely to be driven by reductions in testing.

Possible Undetected Mpox Infection Among Persons Accessing Homeless Services and Staying in Encampments - San Francisco, California, October-November 2022.

Monkeypox (mpox) is a disease caused by an Orthopoxvirus. The 2022 multinational outbreak, which began in May 2022, has spread primarily by close skin-to-skin contact, including through sexual contact. Persons experiencing homelessness have been disproportionately affected by severe mpox (1). However, mpox prevalence and transmission pathways among persons experiencing homelessness are not known, and persons experiencing homelessness have not been specifically recommended to receive mpox vaccine during the 2022 outbreak (2,3). During October 25-November 3, 2022, a CDC field team conducted an orthopoxvirus seroprevalence survey among persons accessing homeless services or staying in encampments, shelters, or permanent supportive housing in San Francisco, California that had noted at least one case of mpox or served populations at risk. During field team visits to 16 unique sites, 209 participants completed a 15-minute survey and provided a blood specimen. Among 80 participants aged <50 years who did not report smallpox or mpox vaccination or previous mpox infection, two (2.5%) had detectable antiorthopoxvirus immunoglobulin (Ig) G antibody. Among 73 participants who did not report mpox vaccination or previous mpox infection and who were tested for IgM, one (1.4%) had detectable antiorthopoxvirus IgM. Together, these results suggest that three possible undetected mpox infections occurred among a sample of persons experiencing homelessness, highlighting the need to ensure that community outreach and prevention interventions, such as vaccination, are accessible to this population.

Large Community Outbreak of Legionnaires Disease Potentially Associated with a Cooling Tower - Napa County, California, 2022.

Legionnaires disease is a serious infection acquired by inhalation of water droplets from human-made building water systems that contain Legionella bacteria. On July 11 and 12, 2022, Napa County Public Health (NCPH) in California received reports of three positive urinary antigen tests for Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 in the town of Napa. By July 21, six Legionnaires disease cases had been confirmed among Napa County residents, compared with a baseline of one or two cases per year. NCPH requested assistance from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and CDC to aid in the investigations. Close temporal and geospatial clustering permitted a focused environmental sampling strategy of high-risk facilities which, coupled with whole genome sequencing results from samples and investigation of water system maintenance, facilitated potential linking of the outbreak with an environmental source. NCPH, with technical support from CDC and CDPH, instructed and monitored remediation practices for all environmental locations that tested positive for Legionella. The investigation response to this community outbreak illustrates the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration by public health agencies, laboratory support, timely communication with the public, and cooperation of managers of potentially implicated water systems. Timely identification of possible sources, sampling, and remediation of any facility testing positive for Legionella is crucial to interrupting further transmission.

Effectiveness of a COVID-19 Additional Primary or Booster Vaccine Dose in Preventing SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Nursing Home Residents During Widespread Circulation of the Omicron Variant - United States, February 14-March 27, 2022.

Nursing home residents have experienced disproportionally high levels of COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality and were prioritized for early COVID-19 vaccination (1). Following reported declines in vaccine-induced immunity after primary series vaccination, defined as receipt of 2 primary doses of an mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech] or mRNA-1273 [Moderna]) or 1 primary dose of Ad26.COV2 (Johnson & Johnson [Janssen]) vaccine (2), CDC recommended that all persons aged ≥12 years receive a COVID-19 booster vaccine dose.* Moderately to severely immunocompromised persons, a group that includes many nursing home residents, are also recommended to receive an additional primary COVID-19 vaccine dose.† Data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) of an additional primary or booster dose against infection with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) among nursing home residents are limited, especially against the highly transmissible B.1.1.529 and BA.2 (Omicron) variants. Weekly COVID-19 surveillance and vaccination coverage data among nursing home residents, reported by skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) to CDC's National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN)§ during February 14-March 27, 2022, when the Omicron variant accounted for >99% of sequenced isolates, were analyzed to estimate relative VE against infection for any COVID-19 additional primary or booster dose compared with primary series vaccination. After adjusting for calendar week and variability across SNFs, relative VE of a COVID-19 additional primary or booster dose was 46.9% (95% CI = 44.8%-48.9%). These findings indicate that among nursing home residents, COVID-19 additional primary or booster doses provide greater protection against Omicron variant infection than does primary series vaccination alone. All immunocompromised nursing home residents should receive an additional primary dose, and all nursing home residents should receive a booster dose, when eligible, to protect against COVID-19. Efforts to keep nursing home residents up to date with vaccination should be implemented in conjunction with other COVID-19 prevention strategies, including testing and vaccination of nursing home staff members and visitors.

Effectiveness of Homologous and Heterologous COVID-19 Booster Doses Following 1 Ad.26.COV2.S (Janssen [Johnson & Johnson]) Vaccine Dose Against COVID-19-Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults - VISION Network, 10 States, December 2021-March 2022.

CDC recommends that all persons aged ≥18 years receive a single COVID-19 vaccine booster dose ≥2 months after receipt of an Ad.26.COV2.S (Janssen [Johnson & Johnson]) adenovirus vector-based primary series vaccine; a heterologous COVID-19 mRNA vaccine is preferred over a homologous (matching) Janssen vaccine for booster vaccination. This recommendation was made in light of the risks for rare but serious adverse events following receipt of a Janssen vaccine, including thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome and Guillain-Barré syndrome† (1), and clinical trial data indicating similar or higher neutralizing antibody response following heterologous boosting compared with homologous boosting (2). Data on real-world vaccine effectiveness (VE) of different booster strategies following a primary Janssen vaccine dose are limited, particularly during the period of Omicron variant predominance. The VISION Network§ determined real-world VE of 1 Janssen vaccine dose and 2 alternative booster dose strategies: 1) a homologous booster (i.e., 2 Janssen doses) and 2) a heterologous mRNA booster (i.e., 1 Janssen dose/1 mRNA dose). In addition, VE of these booster strategies was compared with VE of a homologous booster following mRNA primary series vaccination (i.e., 3 mRNA doses). The study examined 80,287 emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) visits¶ and 25,244 hospitalizations across 10 states during December 16, 2021-March 7, 2022, when Omicron was the predominant circulating variant.** VE against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated ED/UC encounters was 24% after 1 Janssen dose, 54% after 2 Janssen doses, 79% after 1 Janssen/1 mRNA dose, and 83% after 3 mRNA doses. VE for the same vaccination strategies against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations were 31%, 67%, 78%, and 90%, respectively. All booster strategies provided higher protection than a single Janssen dose against ED/UC visits and hospitalizations during Omicron variant predominance. Vaccination with 1 Janssen/1 mRNA dose provided higher protection than did 2 Janssen doses against COVID-19-associated ED/UC visits and was comparable to protection provided by 3 mRNA doses during the first 120 days after a booster dose. However, 3 mRNA doses provided higher protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations than did other booster strategies during the same time interval since booster dose. All adults who have received mRNA vaccines for their COVID-19 primary series vaccination should receive an mRNA booster dose when eligible. Adults who received a primary Janssen vaccine dose should preferentially receive a heterologous mRNA vaccine booster dose ≥2 months later, or a homologous Janssen vaccine booster dose if mRNA vaccine is contraindicated or unavailable. Further investigation of the durability of protection afforded by different booster strategies is warranted.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Hospitalizations Among Adults With Chronic Medical Conditions.

BACKGROUND: In contrast with respiratory disease caused by influenza, information on the risk of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease among adults with chronic medical conditions (CMCs) is limited. METHODS: We linked population-based surveillance of acute respiratory illness hospitalizations to national administrative data to estimate seasonal RSV hospitalization rates among adults aged 18-80 years with the following preexisting CMCs: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, congestive heart failure (CHF), coronary artery disease (CAD), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), diabetes mellitus (DM), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Age- and ethnicity-adjusted rates stratified by age group were estimated. RESULTS: Among 883 999 adult residents aged 18-80 years, 281 RSV-positive hospitalizations were detected during 2012-2015 winter seasons. Across all ages, RSV hospitalization rates were significantly higher among adults with COPD, asthma, CHF, and CAD compared with those without each corresponding condition. RSV hospitalization rates were significantly higher among adults with ESRD aged 50-64 years and adults with DM aged 18-49 years and 65-80 years compared with adults in each age group without these conditions. No increased risk was seen for adults with CVA. The CMC with the highest risk of RSV hospitalization was CHF (incidence rate ratio [IRR] range, 4.6-36.5 across age strata) and COPD (IRR range, 9.6-9.7). Among RSV-positive adults, CHF and COPD were independently associated with increased length of hospital stay. CONCLUSIONS: Adults with specific CMCs are at increased risk of RSV hospitalizations. Age affects this relationship for some CMCs. Such populations maybe relevant for future RSV prevention strategies.

Online interprofessional simulation for undergraduate health professional students during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This report describes the Obstetric and Neonatal Simulation (ONE-Sim) workshop run in a remote learning format for medical and midwifery students in an interprofessional setting during the COVID-19 pandemic. It explores the observation of students as participants in the online learning of using Personal Protective Equipment and simulation-based learning of perinatal emergency management. This was followed by their mutual interaction and reflections. This paper aims to understand the role of synchronous remote learning through simulation and its impact on interprofessional interactions. We describe the experience of medical and midwifery students with the ONE-Sim workshop, facilitated by medical (obstetric and neonatal) and midwifery educators. Formal thematic analysis will be performed as part of the ongoing study; however, initial direct observation demonstrated that students reacted positively to the online ONE-Sim workshop and engaged well with facilitators and peers. Students mutually interacted amongst themselves, shared their previous experiences, knowledge of roles as medical and midwifery practitioners and how they see themselves in those roles in a perinatal emergency setting. The initial observations demonstrate that interprofessional education delivered in an e-learning format can be useful and meaningful, and may be utilized across a number of specialties.

Influenza-Associated Outcomes Among Pregnant, Postpartum, and Nonpregnant Women of Reproductive Age.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women are prioritized for seasonal influenza vaccination, but the evidence on the risk of influenza during pregnancy that is used to inform these policies is limited. METHODS: Individual-level administrative data sets and active surveillance data were joined to estimate influenza-associated hospitalization and outpatient visit rates by pregnancy, postpartum, and trimester status. RESULTS: During 2012-2015, 46 of 260 (17.7%) influenza-confirmed hospitalizations for acute respiratory infection and 13 of 294 (4.4%) influenza-confirmed outpatient visits were among pregnant and postpartum women. Pregnant and postpartum women experienced higher rates of influenza-associated hospitalization than nonpregnant women overall (rate ratio [RR], 3.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5-4.7) and by trimester (first, 2.5 [95% CI, 1.2-5.4]; second, 3.9 [95% CI, 2.4-6.3]; and third, 4.8 [95% CI, 3.0-7.7]); the RR for the postpartum period was 0.7 (95% CI, 3.0-7.7). Influenza A viruses were associated with an increased risk (RR for 2009 pandemic influenza A[H1N1] virus, 5.3 [95% CI, 3.2-8.7]; RR for influenza A(H3N2) virus, 3.0 [95% CI, 1.8-5.0]), but influenza B virus was not (RR, 1.8; 95% CI, .7-4.6). Influenza-associated hospitalization rates in pregnancy were significantly higher for Maori women (RR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.3-8.4), compared with women of European or other ethnicity. Similar risks for influenza-confirmed outpatient visits were not observed. CONCLUSION: Seasonal influenza poses higher risks of hospitalization among pregnant women in all trimesters, compared with nonpregnant women. Hospitalization rates vary by influenza virus type and ethnicity among pregnant women.

Risk Factors and Attack Rates of Seasonal Influenza Infection: Results of the Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance (SHIVERS) Seroepidemiologic Cohort Study.

Background: Understanding the attack rate of influenza infection and the proportion who become ill by risk group is key to implementing prevention measures. While population-based studies of antihemagglutinin antibody responses have been described previously, studies examining both antihemagglutinin and antineuraminidase antibodies are lacking. Methods: In 2015, we conducted a seroepidemiologic cohort study of individuals randomly selected from a population in New Zealand. We tested paired sera for hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) or neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) titers for seroconversion. We followed participants weekly and performed influenza polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for those reporting influenza-like illness (ILI). Results: Influenza infection (either HAI or NAI seroconversion) was found in 321 (35% [95% confidence interval, 32%-38%]) of 911 unvaccinated participants, of whom 100 (31%) seroconverted to NAI alone. Young children and Pacific peoples experienced the highest influenza infection attack rates, but overall only a quarter of all infected reported influenza PCR-confirmed ILI, and one-quarter of these sought medical attention. Seroconversion to NAI alone was higher among children aged <5 years vs those aged ≥5 years (14% vs 4%; P < .001) and among those with influenza B vs A(H3N2) virus infections (7% vs 0.3%; P < .001). Conclusions: Measurement of antineuraminidase antibodies in addition to antihemagglutinin antibodies may be important in capturing the true influenza infection rates.

Respiratory syncytial virus hospitalisations among young children: a data linkage study.

We aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of laboratory-confirmed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated hospitalisations. Between 2012 and 2015, active surveillance of acute respiratory infection (ARI) hospitalisations during winter seasons was used to estimate the seasonal incidence of laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalisations in children aged <5 years in Auckland, New Zealand (NZ). Incidence rates were estimated by fine age group, ethnicity and socio-economic status (SES) strata. Additionally, RSV disease estimates determined through active surveillance were compared to rates estimated from hospital discharge codes. There were 5309 ARI hospitalisations among children during the study period, of which 3923 (73.9%) were tested for RSV and 1597 (40.7%) were RSV-positive. The seasonal incidence of RSV-associated ARI hospitalisations, once corrected for non-testing, was 6.1 (95% confidence intervals 5.8-6.4) per 1000 children <5 years old. The highest incidence was among children aged <3 months. Being of indigenous Maori or Pacific ethnicity or living in a neighbourhood with low SES independently increased the risk of an RSV-associated hospitalisation. RSV hospital discharge codes had a sensitivity of 71% for identifying laboratory-confirmed RSV cases. RSV infection is a leading cause of hospitalisation among children in NZ, with significant disparities by ethnicity and SES. Our findings highlight the need for effective RSV vaccines and therapies.

Alterations in the Salivary Proteome and N-Glycome of Sjögren's Syndrome Patients.

We used isobaric mass tagging (iTRAQ) and lectin affinity capture mass spectrometry (MS)-based workflows for global analyses of parotid saliva (PS) and whole saliva (WS) samples obtained from patients diagnosed with primary Sjögren's Syndrome (pSS) who were enrolled in the Sjögren's International Collaborative Clinical Alliance (SICCA) as compared with two control groups. The iTRAQ analyses revealed up- and down-regulation of numerous proteins that could be involved in the disease process (e.g., histones) or attempts to mitigate the ensuing damage (e.g., bactericidal/permeability increasing fold containing family (BPIF) members). An immunoblot approach applied to independent sample sets confirmed the pSS associated up-regulation of ß2-microglobulin (in PS) and down-regulation of carbonic anhydrase VI (in WS) and BPIFB2 (in PS). Beyond the proteome, we profiled the N-glycosites of pSS and control samples. They were enriched for glycopeptides using lectins Aleuria aurantia and wheat germ agglutinin, which recognize fucose and sialic acid/N-acetyl glucosamine, respectively. MS analyses showed that pSS is associated with increased N-glycosylation of numerous salivary glycoproteins in PS and WS. The observed alterations of the salivary proteome and N-glycome could be used as pSS biomarkers enabling easier and earlier detection of this syndrome while lending potential new insights into the disease process.

Minimally Invasive Blood Collection for an Mpox Serosurvey among People Experiencing Homelessness.

BACKGROUND: People experiencing homelessness (PEH) are underrepresented in public health and clinical research. Study methods that can improve participation by this group are needed. METHODS: In late 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducted an mpox serological survey using venipuncture among PEH in San Francisco, California. Blood collection by a minimally invasive device was offered if venipuncture was not possible or preferred. Participants who had a successful blood draw using the device were asked about device acceptability. RESULTS: Of the 209 successful blood collections, 137 (66%) were among participants who underwent venipuncture and 72 (34%) were among participants who used the device. Use of the device increased overall blood collection participation by 53%. Participants reported high acceptability and preference for the device over venipuncture. CONCLUSIONS: Minimally invasive blood collection devices may increase participation and representation of PEH in serosurveys.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use among the pediatric population of the United States.

BACKGROUND: Although use of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) among children has reduced incidence of pneumococcal disease, a considerable burden of disease remains. PCV15 is a new vaccine that contains pneumococcal serotypes 22F and 33F in addition to serotypes contained in PCV13. To inform deliberations by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on recommendations for PCV15 use among U.S. children, we estimated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of replacing PCV13 with PCV15 within the routine infant immunization program in the United States. We also assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of a supplementary PCV15 dose among children aged 2-5 years who have already received a full PCV13 series. METHODS: We estimated the incremental number of pneumococcal disease events and deaths averted, costs per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and costs per life-year gained under different vaccination strategies using a probabilistic model following a single birth cohort of 3.9 million individuals (based on 2020 U.S. birth cohort). We assumed that vaccine effectiveness (VE) of PCV15 against the two additional serotypes was the same as the VE of PCV13. The cost of PCV15 use among children was informed from costs of PCV15 use among adults and from discussions with the manufacturer. RESULTS: Our base case results found that replacing PCV13 with PCV15 prevented 92,290 additional pneumococcal disease events and 22 associated deaths, while also saving $147 million in costs. A supplementary PCV15 dose among children aged 2-5 years who were fully vaccinated with PCV13 prevented further pneumococcal disease events and associated deaths but at a cost of more than $2.5 million per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: A further decrease in pneumococcal disease in conjunction with considerable societal cost savings could be expected from replacing PCV13 with PCV15 within the routine infant immunization program in the United States.

Mpox vaccine acceptability among people experiencing homelessness in San Francisco - October-November 2022.

Mpox has affected many communities in the United States (U.S.), including people experiencing homelessness (PEH). Mpox vaccination has been an important tool to disrupt transmission and protect communities at risk of infection. To better understand mpox vaccine knowledge and attitudes, we surveyed 273 PEH and people accessing homeless service sites in San Francisco. Among 64 participants previously offered mpox vaccination, 38 (59 %) had received the vaccine. Among 209 participants not previously offered mpox vaccination, 108 (52 %) reported they would receive the vaccine. Vaccine acceptance was higher among transgender female participants and among male participants who reported male sex partner preference (MSM). Half of participants who declined vaccination identified that perception of personal risk and vaccine education may increase their likelihood of receiving an mpox vaccine. Leveraging trusted information sources to provide risk communication and vaccine education may increase vaccine uptake among PEH.

Early childhood education staff are falling through a vaccination policy gap in New Zealand.

The recent COVID-19 vaccine mandate among early childhood education (ECE) staff highlights the important role ECE staff have in the transmission of infectious diseases. However, there are no data on general vaccine uptake for this group in New Zealand. Additionally, the importance of ECE staff vaccination as a strategy to prevent illness has been rarely promoted in the past, and recommendations for other vaccinations in this group are lacking. Here we present a section of data accessed from an ECE-sector employment survey of more than 4,000 teaching staff, which inquired into the immunisation status of respondents. The data indicated that self-reported immunisation coverage for whooping cough, hepatitis A, and hepatitis B among ECE staff was approximately 50%. Self-reported immunisation status was higher for measles, mumps, rubella, and chickenpox in this group. The findings highlight the need for more comprehensive vaccination policy and research in ECE settings.

Evaluation of online interprofessional simulation workshops for obstetric and neonatal emergencies.

Objectives: To explore student perceptions of learning and interprofessional aspects of obstetric and neonatal emergencies through online simulation-based workshops. Methods: This qualitative study was conducted at Monash University, Australia. Data were obtained from six separate online Obstetric Neonatal Emergency Simulation workshops held between May 2020 and August 2021. A total of 385 students attended and were invited to participate in the study by completing an online survey two-three weeks later. Of the attendees, 144 students completed the survey (95 medical, 45 midwifery), equating to a response rate of 37%. Survey responses were downloaded from online survey platform and separated into medical and midwifery responses. Thematic analysis of data was performed using a coding framework, resulting in development of themes and subthemes. Results: Main themes were adaptability, connectivism, preparedness for practice, experiential learning, learning through modelling and dynamics of online interaction. Students reported that online workshop was a useful alternative method to experience simulation-based learning, increase their readiness for clinical practice and foster positive interprofessional relationships. Consistent with existing literature evaluating similar in-person programs, midwifery students were most interested in interprofessional interaction (predominant theme: dynamics of online interaction), whilst medical students were more concerned with developing clinical skills (predominant themes: learning through modelling, experiential learning). Conclusions: Online learning may be a useful and convenient way of delivering interprofessional simulation-based education during the pandemic, in remote areas and as an adjunct to in-person teaching. Future studies should evaluate the impact of online learning with a mixed methods study and in comparison, to in-person programs.

Sensitivity and specificity of surveillance case definitions in detection of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus among hospitalized patients, New Zealand, 2012-2016.

BACKGROUND: The WHO is exploring the value of adding RSV testing to existing influenza surveillance systems to inform RSV control programs. We evaluate the usefulness of four commonly used influenza surveillance case-definitions for influenza and RSV surveillance. METHODS: SHIVERS, a multi-institutional collaboration, conducted surveillance for influenza and RSV in four New Zealand hospitals. Nurses reviewed admission logs, enrolled patients with suspected acute respiratory infections (ARI), and obtained nasopharyngeal swabs for RT-PCR. We compared the performance characteristics for identifying laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), defined as persons admitted with measured or reported fever and cough within 10 days of illness, to three other case definitions: 1. reported fever and cough or shortness of breath, 2. cough and shortness of breath, or 3. cough. RESULTS: During April-September 2012-2016, SHIVERS identified 16,055 admissions with ARI; of 6374 cases consented and tested for influenza or RSV, 5437 (85%) had SARI and 937 (15%) did not. SARI had the highest specificity in detecting influenza (40.6%) and RSV (40.8%) but the lowest sensitivity (influenza 78.8%, RSV 60.3%) among patients of all ages. Cough or shortness of breath had the highest sensitivity (influenza 99.3%, RSV 99.9%) but the lowest specificity (influenza 1.6%, RSV 1.9%). SARI sensitivity among children aged <3 months was 60.8% for influenza and 43.6% for RSV-both lower than in other age groups. CONCLUSIONS: While SARI had the highest specificity, its sensitivity was limited, especially among children aged <3 months. Cough or shortness of breath was the most sensitive.

Modelling the impact of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine and immunoprophylaxis strategies in New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission can help describe seasonal epidemics and assess the impact of potential vaccines and immunoprophylaxis with monoclonal antibodies (mAb). METHODS: We developed a deterministic, compartmental model for RSV transmission, which was fitted to population-based RSV hospital surveillance data from Auckland, New Zealand. The model simulated the introduction of either a maternal vaccine or a seasonal mAb among infants aged less than 6 months and estimated the reduction in RSV hospitalizations for a range of effectiveness and coverage values. RESULTS: The model accurately reproduced the annual seasonality of RSV epidemics in Auckland. We found that a maternal vaccine with effectiveness of 30-40% in the first 90 days and 15-20% for the next 90 days could reduce RSV hospitalizations by 18-24% in children younger than 3 months, by 11-14% in children aged 3-5 months, and by 2-3% in children aged 6-23 months. A seasonal infant mAb with 40-60% effectiveness for 150 days could reduce RSV hospitalizations by 30-43%, 34-48% and by 14-21% in children aged 0-2 months, 3-5 months and 6-23 months, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that either a maternal RSV vaccine or mAb would effectively reduce RSV hospitalization disease burden in New Zealand. Overall, a seasonal mAb resulted in a larger disease prevention impact than a maternal vaccine.