Competing risks and multivariate outcomes in epidemiological and clinical trial research.

Data analysis methods for the study of treatments or exposures in relation to a clinical outcome in the presence of competing risks have a long history, often with inference targets that are hypothetical, thereby requiring strong assumptions for identifiability with available data. Here data analysis methods are considered that are based on single and higher dimensional marginal hazard rates, quantities that are identifiable under standard independent censoring assumptions. These lead naturally to joint survival function estimators for outcomes of interest, including competing risk outcomes, and provide the basis for addressing a variety of data analysis questions. These methods will be illustrated using simulations and Women's Health Initiative cohort and clinical trial data sets, and additional research needs will be described.

Vitamin B6 catabolism and lung cancer risk: results from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3).

BACKGROUND: Increased vitamin B6 catabolism related to inflammation, as measured by the PAr index (the ratio of 4-pyridoxic acid over the sum of pyridoxal and pyridoxal-5'-phosphate), has been positively associated with lung cancer risk in two prospective European studies. However, the extent to which this association translates to more diverse populations is not known. MATERIALS AND METHODS: For this study, we included 5323 incident lung cancer cases and 5323 controls individually matched by age, sex, and smoking status within each of 20 prospective cohorts from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. Cohort-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between PAr and lung cancer risk were calculated using conditional logistic regression and pooled using random-effects models. RESULTS: PAr was positively associated with lung cancer risk in a dose-response fashion. Comparing the fourth versus first quartiles of PAr resulted in an OR of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.19-1.59) for overall lung cancer risk. The association between PAr and lung cancer risk was most prominent in former smokers (OR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.36-2.10), men (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.28-2.00), and for cancers diagnosed within 3 years of blood draw (OR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.34-2.23). CONCLUSION: Based on pre-diagnostic data from 20 cohorts across 4 continents, this study confirms that increased vitamin B6 catabolism related to inflammation and immune activation is associated with a higher risk of developing lung cancer. Moreover, PAr may be a pre-diagnostic marker of lung cancer rather than a causal factor.

The renin-angiotensin aldosterone system and osteoporosis: findings from the Women's Health Initiative.

New users of RAAS inhibitors, including ACE inhibitors and ARBs, have a small increased risk for fracture in the first 3 years of use, with a reduced risk of fracture with longer duration of use. INTRODUCTION: Pharmacological inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) are used to treat hypertension. However, the relationship of these medications to osteoporosis is inconsistent, and no study has included simultaneous measurements of both incident fractures and bone mineral density (BMD). METHODS: The association of RAAS inhibitor use (n = 131,793) with incident fractures in new users of these medications in women in the Women's Health Initiative over a minimum median follow-up of 6.5 years was assessed by Cox proportional hazard models. The association of incident fractures by a cumulative duration of use of these medications (< 3 years.) and (> 3 years.) was also estimated. Subgroup analysis of fracture risk by RAAS inhibitor use confined to women with hypertension was also performed (n = 33,820). The association of RAAS inhibitor use with changes in BMD of the hip was estimated by linear regression in 8940 women with dual energy X-ray absorptiometry measurements. RESULTS: There was no significant association between RAAS inhibitor use and all fractures in the final adjusted multivariable models including hip BMD (HR 0.86 (0.59, 1.24)). However, among users of RAAS inhibitors, including ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), hazard ratios for all incident fracture sites in final multivariable models including hip BMD showed dramatic differences by duration of use, with short duration of use (3 years or less) associated with a marked increased risk for fracture (HR 3.28 (1.66, 6.48)) to (HR 6.23 (3.11, 12.46)) and use for more than 3 years associated with a reduced fracture risk (HR 0.40 (0.24, 0.68) to (HR 0.44 (0.20, 0.97)) . Findings were similar in the subgroup of women with a history of hypertension. There was no significant change in BMD of the hip by RAAS inhibitor use. CONCLUSIONS: In postmenopausal women, use of RAAS inhibitors, including ACE inhibitors and ARBs, is associated with an increased risk for fracture among new users of these medications in the first 3 years of use. However, long-term use (> 3 years) is associated with a reduced risk. Consideration for fracture risk may be part of the decision-making process for initiation of these medications for other disease states.

No association between circulating concentrations of vitamin D and risk of lung cancer: an analysis in 20 prospective studies in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3).

Background: There is observational evidence suggesting that high vitamin D concentrations may protect against lung cancer. To investigate this hypothesis in detail, we measured circulating vitamin D concentrations in prediagnostic blood from 20 cohorts participating in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). Patients and methods: The study included 5313 lung cancer cases and 5313 controls. Blood samples for the cases were collected, on average, 5 years before lung cancer diagnosis. Controls were individually matched to the cases by cohort, sex, age, race/ethnicity, date of blood collection, and smoking status in five categories. Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used to separately analyze 25-hydroxyvitamin D2 [25(OH)D2] and 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D3] and their concentrations were combined to give an overall measure of 25(OH)D. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 25(OH)D as both continuous and categorical variables. Results: Overall, no apparent association between 25(OH)D and risk of lung cancer was observed (multivariable adjusted OR for a doubling in concentration: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.06). Similarly, we found no clear evidence of interaction by cohort, sex, age, smoking status, or histology. Conclusion: This study did not support an association between vitamin D concentrations and lung cancer risk.

Reliable evidence from placebo-controlled, randomized, clinical trials for menopausal hormone therapy's influence on incidence and deaths from breast cancer.

In an invited editorial, Dr Shapiro proposes that vaginal bleeding leading to unblinding and subsequent detection bias explains the breast cancer increase seen with estrogen plus progestin in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) clinical trial (1) . In the context of a uniform detection program of protocol-mandated annual mammography and breast examinations, such a proposal is medically implausible. Dr Shapiro suggests detection bias would identify a larger number of 'slowly growing tumors that would otherwise remain clinically silent'. The findings of more advanced cancers with increased deaths from breast cancer in the estrogen plus progestin group refute this conjecture. During early post-intervention phases of both WHI hormone therapy trials, when breast cancer detection bias is asserted by Dr Shapiro because participants had been informed of randomization assignment, breast cancer incidence rates were lower (rather than higher) than during intervention. Thus, Dr Shapiro's claims are directly refuted by findings from the WHI randomized clinical trials. Health-care providers should be aware that randomized clinical trial evidence supports estrogen plus progestin increasing breast cancer incidence and deaths from breast cancer. In contrast, among women with prior hysterectomy, randomized clinical trial evidence supports estrogen alone reducing breast cancer incidence and deaths from breast cancer.

Health risks and benefits from calcium and vitamin D supplementation: Women's Health Initiative clinical trial and cohort study.

SUMMARY: The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial randomly assigned 36,282 postmenopausal women in the U.S. to 1,000 mg elemental calcium carbonate plus 400 IU of vitamin D(3) daily or placebo, with average intervention period of 7.0 years. The trial was designed to test whether calcium plus vitamin D supplementation in a population in which the use of these supplements was widespread would reduce hip fracture, and secondarily, total fracture and colorectal cancer. INTRODUCTION: This study further examines the health benefits and risks of calcium and vitamin D supplementation using WHI data, with emphasis on fractures, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and total mortality. METHODS: WHI calcium and vitamin D randomized clinical trial (CT) data through the end of the intervention period were further analyzed with emphasis on treatment effects in relation to duration of supplementation, and these data were contrasted and combined with corresponding data from the WHI prospective observational study (OS). RESULTS: Among women not taking personal calcium or vitamin D supplements at baseline, the hazard ratio [HR] for hip fracture occurrence in the CT following 5 or more years of calcium and vitamin D supplementation versus placebo was 0.62 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.38-1.00). In combined analyses of CT and OS data, the corresponding HR was 0.65 (95 % CI, 0.44-0.98). Supplementation effects were not apparent on the risks of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, total heart disease, stroke, overall cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, or total mortality, while evidence for a reduction in breast cancer risk and total invasive cancer risk among calcium plus vitamin D users was only suggestive. CONCLUSION: Though based primarily on a subset analysis, long-term use of calcium and vitamin D appears to confer a reduction that may be substantial in the risk of hip fracture among postmenopausal women. Other health benefits and risks of supplementation at doses considered, including an elevation in urinary tract stone formation, appear to be modest and approximately balanced.

Disruption of the folate pathway in zebrafish causes developmental defects.

BACKGROUND: Folic acid supplementation reduces the risk of neural tube defects and congenital heart defects. The biological mechanisms through which folate prevents birth defects are not well understood. We explore the use of zebrafish as a model system to investigate the role of folate metabolism during development. RESULTS: We first identified zebrafish orthologs of 12 human folate metabolic genes. RT-PCR and in situ analysis indicated maternal transcripts supply the embryo with mRNA so that the embryo has an intact folate pathway. To perturb folate metabolism we exposed zebrafish embryos to methotrexate (MTX), a potent inhibitor of dihydrofolate reductase (Dhfr) an essential enzyme in the folate metabolic pathway. Embryos exposed to high doses of MTX exhibited developmental arrest prior to early segmentation. Lower doses of MTX resulted in embryos with a shortened anterior-posterior axis and cardiac defects: linear heart tubes or incomplete cardiac looping. Inhibition of dhfr mRNA with antisense morpholino oligonucleotides resulted in embryonic lethality. One function of the folate pathway is to provide essential one-carbon units for dTMP synthesis, a rate-limiting step of DNA synthesis. After 24 hours of exposure to high levels of MTX, mutant embryos continue to incorporate the thymidine analog BrdU. However, additional experiments indicate that these embryos have fewer mitotic cells, as assayed with phospho-histone H3 antibodies, and that treated embryos have perturbed cell cycles. CONCLUSIONS: Our studies demonstrate that human and zebrafish utilize similar one-carbon pathways. Our data indicate that folate metabolism is essential for early zebrafish development. Zebrafish studies of the folate pathway and its deficiencies could provide insight into the underlying etiology of human birth defects and the natural role of folate in development.

Colovaginal and colovesical fistulae: the diagnostic paradigm.

BACKGROUND: Colovaginal and colovesical fistulae (CVF) are relatively uncommon conditions, most frequently resulting from diverticular disease or colorectal cancer. A high suspicion of a CVF can usually be obtained from an accurate clinical history. Demonstrating CVF radiologically is often challenging, and patients frequently undergo a multitude of investigations prior to definitive management. The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm for the investigation of suspected CVF in order to improve diagnosis and subsequent management. METHODS: Thirty-seven patients from a single NHS Trust with a diagnosis of colovaginal or colovesical fistula were included in the study. Clinical records and imaging were reviewed retrospectively, and data on demographics, symptoms, investigations, management and outcome were collated. RESULTS: A total of 87.5% patients with a colovesical fistula presented with pathognomic symptoms of faecaluria or pneumaturia. The commonest aetiologies were diverticular disease (72.9%), colonic and gynaecological neoplasia (10.8% each). Computerised tomography (CT) was the most frequently performed investigation (91.9%) and was most sensitive in detecting the fistula (76.5%) and underlying aetiology (94.1%). Colonoscopy was most sensitive in detecting an underlying colonic malignancy (100%). Resectional surgery was performed in 62.1% of cases, although morbidity and 1-year mortality was significant, with rates of 21.7 and 17.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnosis of CVF is predominately a clinical one, and patients with a suspected CVF are over-investigated. Investigations should be focused on determining aetiology rather than demonstrating the fistulous tract itself. We propose that, in the majority of cases, CT and lower gastrointestinal endoscopy should suffice.

Treatment of aplastic anemia by marrow transplantation from HLA identical siblings. Prognostic factors associated with graft versus host disease and survival.

73 consecutive patients with severe aplastic anemia were treated by marrow transplantation from hematologically normal HLA identical siblings. 68 patients lived long enough to document marrow engraftment. 21 rejected the graft and 19 of these died. 47 sustained engraftment and 18 of these died. In 16 patients, death was associated with graft versus host disease. 29 patients with sustained engraftment are alive with complete hematologic restoration between 8 mo and 5 yr. This analysis, by using a proportional hazards regression model, was directed at identifying factors that predicted survival (and absence of graft versus host disease). Of the 24 factors entered into the analysis only two strongly correlated with survival: (a) sex match of donor and recipient (P less than 0.01), and (b) absence of refractoriness to random donor platelets at the time of transplantation (P less than 0.05). Refractoriness adversely influenced the survival of the sex mismatched patients, These data suggest that X and Y-associated transplantation antigen systems are important determinants of the outcome of marrow grafts between HLA identical siblings for the treatment of aplastic anemia. The machanism by which refractoriness to random donor platelets influences survival is currently unclear.

Measurement error and results from analytic epidemiology: dietary fat and breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: International correlational analyses have suggested a strong positive association between fat consumption and breast cancer incidence, especially among post-menopausal women. However, case-control studies have been taken to indicate a weaker association, and a recent, pooled cohort analysis reported little evidence of an association. Differences among study results could be due to differences in the populations studied, differences in the control for total energy intake, recall bias in the case-control studies, and dietary measurement error biases. Existing measurement error models assume either that the sample data used to validate dietary self-report instruments are without measurements error or that any such error is independent of both the true dietary exposure and other study subject characteristics. However, growing evidence indicates that total energy and, presumably, both total fat and percent energy from fat are increasingly underreported as percent body fat increases. PURPOSE: A relaxed dietary measurement model is introduced that allows all measurement error parameters to depend on body mass index (weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters) and incorporates a random underreporting quantity that applies to each dietary self-report instrument. The model was applied to results from international correlational analyses to determine whether the differing associations between dietary fat and postmenopausal breast cancer can be explained by measurement errors in dietary assessment. METHODS: The relaxed measurement model was developed by use of data on total fat intake and percent energy from fat from 4-day food records (4DFRs) and food-frequency questionnaires (FFQs) from the original Women's Health Trial. This trial was a randomized, controlled, feasibility study of a low-fat dietary intervention carried out from 1985 through 1988 in Cincinnati (OH), Houston (TX), and Seattle (WA) among 303 women (184 intervention and 119 control) who were 45-69 years of age. The relaxed model was used to project results from the international correlational analyses onto 4DFR and FFQ fat-intake categories. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: If measurement errors in dietary assessment are overlooked entirely, the projected relative risks (RRs) for breast cancer based on the international data vary substantially across percentiles of total fat intake. The projected RR for the 90% versus the 10% fat-intake percentile is 3.08 with the 4DFR and 4.00 with the FFQ. If random (i.e., noise) aspects of measurement error are acknowledged, the projected RR for the same comparison is reduced to 1.54 with the 4DFR and 1.42 with the FFQ. If both systematic and noise aspects of measurement error are acknowledged, the projected RR is reduced to about 1.10 with either instrument. Acknowledgment of measurement error also leads to a projected RR of about 1.10 for the 90% versus the 10% percentile of percent energy from fat with either dietary instrument. IMPLICATIONS: Dietary self-report instruments may be inadequate for analytic epidemiologic studies of dietary fat and disease risk because of measurement error biases.

Relationship of cigarette smoking and radiation exposure to cancer mortality in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Cancer mortality among 40,498 Hiroshima and Nagasaki residents was examined in relation to cigarette smoking habits and estimated atomic bomb radiation exposure level. Relative risk (RR) models that are either multiplicative or additive in the two exposures were emphasized. Most analyses were directed toward all nonhematologic (ANH) cancer, stomach cancer, lung cancer, or digestive tract cancer other than stomach cancer, for which there were, respectively, 1,725, 658, 281, and 338 deaths in the follow-up period for this study. Persons heavily exposed to both cigarette smoke and radiation were found to have significantly lower cancer mortality than multiplicative RR models would suggest for ANH cancer, stomach cancer, and digestive tract cancer other than stomach cancer. Surprisingly, the RR function appeared not only to be submultiplicative for some of these cancer site categories but also may be subadditive. The lung cancer RR function could not be distinguished from either a multiplicative or an additive form. The number of deaths was sufficient to permit some more detailed study of ANH cancer mortality: RR functions appeared to be consistent between males and females, though a paucity of heavy smoking females limits the precision of this comparison. The submultiplicative nature of the RR function mentioned above was particularly pronounced among persons who were relatively young (less than or equal to 30 yr of age) at the time of radiation exposure. The RR function for these younger subjects depends strongly on both radiation and cigarette smoke exposure levels. Even light smoking (approximately 5 cigarettes/day) for an extended period of time was associated with a large estimated RR. Implications of these findings are discussed in relation to human carcinogenesis models. As a byproduct, cancer mortality of several sites is significantly related to radiation exposure in this population, after accommodation for the possible confounding effects of cigarette smoking.

Dietary fat reduction and plasma estradiol concentration in healthy postmenopausal women. The Women's Health Trial Study Group.

Concentrations of total and weakly bound plasma estradiol were significantly (P less than .01) reduced in 73 healthy post-menopausal women after 10-22 weeks of participation in a low-fat diet intervention program. Nonsignificant reductions in estrone sulfate and sex hormone-binding protein were also observed. The 17% reduction in average estradiol concentration was accompanied by an average reduction of 12 mg/dL in total plasma cholesterol (P less than .001), an average weight loss of 3.4 kg (P less than .001), and an average reduction in daily dietary fat from 68.5 to 29.5 g. Our review of case-control studies indicates that a 17% reduction in plasma estradiol may explain a noteworthy component of the international variation in breast cancer incidence. We find a need for further studies of (a) disease risk in relation to hormone concentrations and (b) changes in hormone concentrations as a function of the duration of low-fat diet intervention.

Aspects of the rationale for the Women's Health Trial.

A 5.5-fold range in breast cancer incidence rates in 21 countries shows strong correlation with national estimates of per capita intake of dietary fat, but not with other caloric sources (proteins and carbohydrates). It is argued that certain breast cancer and hormone factors may contribute little to the explanation of such international variations in incidence of this neoplasm. It is further argued that experimental studies in animals support a specific role for dietary fat in the promotion of mammary tumors, but the effects of calories alone seem to be largely restricted to tumor initiation. Finally, data from international, migrant-population, and analytic epidemiologic investigations are used to motivate the basic relative risk assumption of study designs thus far proposed for the Women's Health Trial, and some continuing motivations for a dietary intervention (low-fat diet) trial are discussed.

Higher Dimensional Clayton-Oakes Models for Multivariate Failure Time Data.

The Clayton-Oakes bivariate failure time model is extended to dimensions m > 2 in a manner that allows unspecified marginal survivor functions for all dimensions less than m. Special cases that allow unspecified marginal survivor functions of dimension q with q < m, while making some provisions for dependencies of dimension greater than q, are also described.

On the epidemiology of oral contraceptives and disease.

PIP: Adverse and beneficial effects, especially with regard to mortality rates, of oral contraceptives (OC) are reviewed. In 1980 approximately 80 million women used OCs worldwide. OCs were first marketed in the United States in the 1960's, but by the 1980's low-dose combination pills with less estrogen and progesterone content became widespread along with the minipill, injectable preparations depo- medroxyprogesterone DMPA, and norethindrone containing capsules. Relative disease risk estimates are based on cohort studies and case- control studies. The Royal College of General Practitioners RCGP Oral Contraceptive Study of 1974 involved 46,000 women aged over 15 (50% were OC users, 50% were nonusers) the Oxford Family Planning Association Contraceptive Study of 1976 recruited 17,032 women aged 25-39, 56% of whom used OCs, and the Walnut Creek Contraceptive Drug Study of 1981 studied 16,638 women aged 18-54 of whom 28% were OC users and 33% were former users. A somewhat elevated mortality among ever-users of OCs in the order of 20% seems to be indicated by these studies mostly attributable to diseases of the circulatory system. Current OC use is also a risk factor in thrombotic stroke of the order of 4 or 5, but former use of OCs lowers the risk to 2. The effect of OC dose and formulation, duration of use, and predisposing factors on hemorrhagic and thrombotic stroke appears to be inconclusive with varying data from different studies. There is evidence for some increase in ischemic heart disease among current OC users, and also a 2-fold increase of myocardial infarction (MI) when smoking, serum cholesterol, and hypertension is taken into account, moreover higher estrogen dosage also contributes to a higher incidence of MI. There is also a 5-fold increase of venous thromboembolism among OC users induced by duration of use and estrogen potency, as OCs seem to promote atherogenesis, although the roles of progesterone and estrogen are conflicting. combination pills reduce the rate of endometrial cancer, provided protection against ovarian cancer, and do not seem to increase breast cancer incidence, although the relative risk of cervical cancer is elevated. Mortality risks with older OCs outweigh the benefits.^ieng

Improved survival in patients with poor-prognosis malignant melanoma treated with adjuvant levamisole: a phase III study by the National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group.

Five hundred forty-three patients with completely resected malignant melanoma who were considered to have a significant risk of developing recurrent disease were randomized to one of four study groups. One group received levamisole 2.5 mg/kg on 2 consecutive days weekly for 3 years, a second group received bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) for 3 years. A third group alternated 8-week courses of BCG and levamisole for 3 years and a fourth group underwent clinical assessment at the same frequency as the three treatment groups. The median duration of follow-up is 8.5 years. The percentage of reduction in the death rate and the recurrence rate in the treatment groups compared with the control group was calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model and adjusted for age, sex, and stage as covariants. The patients treated with levamisole were estimated to have a 29% reduction in both the death rate (P = .08) and the recurrence rate (P = .09) compared with patients receiving no further treatment. Fifty-five patients discontinued levamisole early because of gastrointestinal intolerance or arthralgia, myalgia, fever, and immune leukopenia. The patients treated with BCG alternating with levamisole experienced a 10% reduction in the death rate and a 6% reduction in the recurrence rate, and the patients treated with BCG alone experienced a 4% reduction in the death rate and a 3% increase in the recurrence rate compared with the control group. The degree of improvement experienced by the patients that were treated by levamisole is of sufficient magnitude to warrant further investigation of this dose of levamisole as adjuvant treatment in patients with melanoma.

Results of a randomized feasibility study of a low-fat diet.

A 2-year randomized clinical trial was conducted to test whether free-living women aged 45 to 69 years can reduce the fat content of their diet from the typical US level of approximately 39% to 20% of energy from fat, using readily available foods, when given nutritional and behavioral counseling and social support. Three clinical units randomized 303 selected volunteers into intervention (low-fat eating plan) or control (customary diet) groups. The two groups were comparable at baseline. The intervention group received nutrition instruction and behavioral counseling largely in permanent groups of 12 to 15 participants meeting weekly, then biweekly, and finally monthly. At 6 months, they had substantially reduced the mean proportion of total energy from fat from 39.1% to 20.9%, compared with the control group's nonsignificant reduction from 39.0% to 38.1%. At 12 and 24 months, they sustained the reduction of energy from fat. Weight loss and plasma cholesterol level changes in the intervention group supported the self-recorded dietary intake changes. Attendance at intervention sessions averaged 75% during the first 6 months and, subsequently, 60% to 70%. Four-day food records for the randomized women were obtained at 6 and 12 months from approximately 95% and at 24 months from 87%. A clinical trial of a low-fat diet is feasible in women.