The key role of propane in a sustainable cooling sector.

Split air conditioners (ACs) are the most used appliance for space cooling worldwide. The phase-down of refrigerants with high global warming potential (GWP) prescribed by the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol has triggered a major effort to find less harmful alternative refrigerants. HFC-32 is currently the most common refrigerant to replace HFC-410A in split ACs. The GWP of HFC-32 is about one-third that of HFC-410A but still considerably higher than that of a growing number of nonfluorinated alternatives like propane with a GWP of <1, which have recently become commercially available for split ACs. Here, we show that a switch to propane as an energy-efficient and commercially available low-GWP alternative in split ACs could avoid 0.09 (0.06 to 0.12) °C increase in global temperature by the end of the century. This is significantly more than the 0.03 (0.02 to 0.05) °C avoided warming from a complete switch to HFC-32 in split ACs.

Multisectoral Emission Impacts of Electric Vehicle Transition in China and India.

Transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) is a central strategy for reducing carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions. Although the emission impacts of reduced gasoline combustion and increased power generation are well recognized, the impacts of growing EV manufacturing activities remain understudied. Here, we focus on China and India, two of the fastest-growing EV markets. Compared to a 2030 baseline scenario, we find that national emissions of air pollutants could increase in certain high EV penetration scenarios as a result of the emission-intensive battery material production and manufacturing processes. Notably, national sulfur dioxide emissions could increase by 16-20% if all batteries have nickel- and cobalt-based cathodes and are produced domestically. Subnational regions that are abundant in battery-related minerals might emerge as future pollution hotspots. Our study thus highlights the importance of EV supply chain decisions and related manufacturing processes in understanding the environmental impacts of the EV transition.

Transitioning to low-GWP alternatives with enhanced energy efficiency in cooling non-residential buildings of China.

The electricity demand for space cooling in the non-residential building (NRB) sector of China is growing significantly and is becoming increasingly critical with rapid economic development and mounting impacts of climate change. The growing demand for space cooling will increase global warming due to emissions of hydrofluorocarbons used in cooling equipment and carbon dioxide emissions from the mostly fossil fuel-based electricity currently powering space cooling. This study uses the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interaction and Synergies (GAINS) model framework to estimate current and future emissions of hydrofluorocarbons and their abatement potentials for space cooling in the NRB sector of China and assess the co-benefits in the form of savings in electricity and associated reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG), air pollution, and short-lived climate pollutant emissions. Co-benefits of space cooling are assessed by taking into account (a) regional and urban/rural heterogeneities and climatic zones among different provinces; (b) technical/economic energy efficiency improvements of the cooling technologies; and (c) transition towards lower global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants under the Kigali Amendment. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the total energy consumption for space cooling in the NRB sector will increase from 166 TWh in 2015 to 564 TWh in 2050, primarily due to the rapid increase in the floor space area of non-residential buildings. The total GHG mitigation potential due to the transition towards low-GWP refrigerants and technical energy efficiency improvement of cooling technologies will approximately be equal to 10% of the total carbon emissions from the building sector of China in 2050. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10021-w.

Co-benefits of Energy-Efficient Air Conditioners in the Residential Building Sector of China.

Electricity demand for room air conditioners (ACs) has been growing significantly in China in response to rapid economic development and mounting impacts of climate change. In this study, we use the bottom-up model approach to predict the penetration rate of room ACs in the residential building sector of China at the provincial level, with the consideration of the urban-rural heterogeneity. In addition, we assess co-benefits associated with enhanced energy efficiency improvement of AC systems and the adoption of low-global-warming-potential (low-GWP) refrigerants in AC systems. The results indicate that the stock of room ACs in China grows from 568 million units in 2015 to 997 million units in 2030 and 1.1 billion units in 2050. The annual electricity saving from switching to more efficient ACs using low-GWP refrigerants is estimated at almost 1000 TWh in 2050 when taking account of the full technical energy efficiency potential. This is equivalent to approximately 4% of the expected total energy consumption in the Chinese building sector in 2050 or the avoidance of 284 new coal-fired power plants of 500 MW each. The cumulative CO2eq mitigation associated with both the electricity savings and the substitution of high-GWP refrigerants makes up 2.6% of total business-as-usual CO2eq emissions in China over the period 2020 to 2050. The transition toward the uptake of low-GWP refrigerants is as vital as the energy efficiency improvement of new room ACs, which can help and accelerate the ultimate goal of building a low-carbon society in China.

The Critical Role of Policy Enforcement in Achieving Health, Air Quality, and Climate Benefits from India's Clean Electricity Transition.

The coal-dominated electricity system poses major challenges for India to tackle air pollution and climate change. Although the government has issued a series of clean air policies and low-carbon energy targets, a key barrier remains enforcement. Here, we quantify the importance of policy implementation in India's electricity sector using an integrated assessment method based on emissions scenarios, air quality simulations, and health impact assessments. We find that limited enforcement of air pollution control policies leads to worse future air quality and health damages (e.g., 14 200 to 59 000 more PM2.5-related deaths in 2040) than when energy policies are not fully enforced (5900 to 8700 more PM2.5-related deaths in 2040), since coal power plants with end-of-pipe controls already emit little air pollution. However, substantially more carbon dioxide will be emitted if low-carbon and clean coal policies are not successfully implemented (e.g., 400 to 800 million tons more CO2 in 2040). Thus, our results underscore the important role of effectively implementing existing air pollution and energy policy to simultaneously achieve air pollution, health, and carbon mitigation goals in India.

Reducing global air pollution: the scope for further policy interventions.

Over the last decades, energy and pollution control policies combined with structural changes in the economy decoupled emission trends from economic growth, increasingly also in the developing world. It is found that effective implementation of the presently decided national pollution control regulations should allow further economic growth without major deterioration of ambient air quality, but will not be enough to reduce pollution levels in many world regions. A combination of ambitious policies focusing on pollution controls, energy and climate, agricultural production systems and addressing human consumption habits could drastically improve air quality throughout the world. By 2040, mean population exposure to PM2.5 from anthropogenic sources could be reduced by about 75% relative to 2015 and brought well below the WHO guideline in large areas of the world. While the implementation of the proposed technical measures is likely to be technically feasible in the future, the transformative changes of current practices will require strong political will, supported by a full appreciation of the multiple benefits. Improved air quality would avoid a large share of the current 3-9 million cases of premature deaths annually. At the same time, the measures that deliver clean air would also significantly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and contribute to multiple UN sustainable development goals. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

Air Pollution and Mortality in India: Investigating the Nexus of Ambient and Household Pollution Across Life Stages.

Air pollution in India is a foremost environmental risk factor that affects human health. This study first investigates the geographical distribution of ambient and household air pollution (HAP) and then examines the associated mortality risk. Data on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration has been extracted from the Greenhouse Gas Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model. HAP, mortality and socio-demographic data were extracted from the National Family and Health Survey-5, India, 2019-2021. Regression models were applied to see the difference in age-group mortality by different pollution parameters. The districts with PM2.5 concentration above the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) level of 40 µg/m3 show a higher risk of neonatal (OR-1.86, CI 1.418-2.433), postneonatal (OR-2.04, CI 1.399-2.971), child (OR-2.19, CI 0.999-4.803) and adult death (OR-1.13, CI 1.060-1.208). The absence of a separate kitchen shows a higher probability of neonatal (OR: 1.18, CI 1.074-1.306) and adult death (OR-1.06, CI 1.027-1.088). The interaction between PM2.5 levels above NAAQS and HAP leads to a substantial rise in mortality observed for neonatal (OR 1.19 CI 1.051-1.337), child (OR 1.17 CI 1.054-1.289), and adult (OR 1.13 CI 1.096-1.168) age groups. This study advocates that there is a strong positive association between ambient and HAP and mortality risk. PM2.5 pollution significantly contributes to the mortality risk in all age groups. Children are more vulnerable to HAP than adults. In India, policymakers should focus on reducing the anthropogenic PM2.5 emission at least to reach the NAAQS, which can substantially reduce disease burden and, more precisely, mortality.

Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility.

Despite its projected crucial role in stringent, future global climate policy, non-CO2 greenhouse gas (NCGG) mitigation remains a large uncertain factor in climate research. A revision of the estimated mitigation potential has implications for the feasibility of global climate policy to reach the Paris Agreement climate goals. Here, we provide a systematic bottom-up estimate of the total uncertainty in NCGG mitigation, by developing 'optimistic', 'default' and 'pessimistic' long-term NCGG marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, based on a comprehensive literature review of mitigation options. The global 1.5-degree climate target is found to be out of reach under pessimistic MAC assumptions, as is the 2-degree target under high emission assumptions. In a 2-degree scenario, MAC uncertainty translates into a large projected range in relative NCGG reduction (40-58%), carbon budget (±120 Gt CO2) and policy costs (±16%). Partly, the MAC uncertainty signifies a gap that could be bridged by human efforts, but largely it indicates uncertainty in technical limitations.

The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: nationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying "well below 2°C", which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequate to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits. We modelled scenarios to analyse the health co-benefits of NDCs for the year 2040 for nine representative countries (ie, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK, and the USA) that were selected for their contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and their global or regional influence. METHODS: Modelling the energy, food and agriculture, and transport sectors, and mortality related to risk factors of air pollution, diet, and physical activity, we analysed the health co-benefits of existing NDCs and related policies (ie, the current pathways scenario) for 2040 in nine countries around the world. We compared these health co-benefits with two alternative scenarios, one consistent with the goal of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (ie, the sustainable pathways scenario), and one in line with the sustainable pathways scenario, but also placing health as a central focus of the policies (ie, the health in all climate policies scenario). FINDINGS: Compared with the current pathways scenario, the sustainable pathways scenario resulted in an annual reduction of 1·18 million air pollution-related deaths, 5·86 million diet-related deaths, and 1·15 million deaths due to physical inactivity, across the nine countries, by 2040. Adopting the more ambitious health in all climate policies scenario would result in a further reduction of 462 000 annual deaths attributable to air pollution, 572 000 annual deaths attributable to diet, and 943 000 annual deaths attributable to physical inactivity. These benefits were attributable to the mitigation of direct greenhouse gas emissions and the commensurate actions that reduce exposure to harmful pollutants, as well as improved diets and safe physical activity. INTERPRETATION: A greater consideration of health in the NDCs and climate change mitigation policies has the potential to yield considerable health benefits as well as achieve the "well below 2°C" commitment across a range of regional and economic contexts. FUNDING: This work was in part funded through an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust (award number 209734/Z/17/Z) and supported by an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant (grant number EP/R035288/1).

Mitigation pathways towards national ambient air quality standards in India.

Exposure to ambient particulate matter is a leading risk factor for environmental public health in India. While Indian authorities implemented several measures to reduce emissions from the power, industry and transportation sectors over the last years, such strategies appear to be insufficient to reduce the ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration below the Indian National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 40 µg/m3 across the country. This study explores pathways towards achieving the NAAQS in India in the context of the dynamics of social and economic development. In addition, to inform action at the subnational levels in India, we estimate the exposure to ambient air pollution in the current legislations and alternative policy scenarios based on simulations with the GAINS integrated assessment model. The analysis reveals that in many of the Indian States emission sources that are outside of their immediate jurisdictions make the dominating contributions to (population-weighted) ambient pollution levels of PM2.5. Consequently, most of the States cannot achieve significant improvements in their air quality and population exposure on their own without emission reductions in the surrounding regions, and any cost-effective strategy requires regionally coordinated approaches. Advanced technical emission control measures could provide NAAQS-compliant air quality for 60% of the Indian population. However, if combined with national sustainable development strategies, an additional 25% population will be provided with clean air, which appears to be a significant co-benefit on air quality (totaling 85%).

Biomass pellets for power generation in India: a techno-economic evaluation.

Modern bioenergy is being recognized as an increasingly important low-carbon resource by policy-makers around the world to meet climate policy targets. In India also, there is a clear recognition of the significant role of bioenergy in electricity generation as well as in other applications. In this study, a preliminary attempt has been made to assess the techno-economic feasibility of biomass pellets-based power (BPBP) generation in India. Surplus availability of biomass feedstock from agriculture and forestry/wasteland sector is estimated at 242 million tonnes (Mt) for 2010-11 and is expected to rise to 281 Mt in 2030-31 due to increased crop production and associated waste/residue availability. In terms of related capacity, the potential of BPBP projects is estimated at 35 GW for 2030-31. The associated carbon dioxide mitigation potential resulting from the substitution of coal is estimated at 205 Mt in 2030-31 if the entire biomass surplus is to be diverted for power generation. The levelized cost of electricity is estimated at €0.12 per kWh for BPBP projects as compared to €0.10 per kWh for imported coal based power plants. For states with the lower tariff for biomass power, the break-even price of carbon for BPBP projects is estimated at €18 per tonne. Additionally, BPBP projects will generate employment of more than 5 million person-months in the construction of biomass power plants and over 200,000 full-time employments in the operation of BPBP plants and in the production of biomass pellets.

Sectoral assessment of greenhouse gas emissions in Pakistan.

In this study, an attempt has been made to develop inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Pakistan at the national and sectoral level. The emission profile includes carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). In 2012, GHG emissions from different sectors of economy are estimated at 367 Tg CO2eq. Out of this, CO2 emissions were 179 Tg; CH4 emissions were 107 Tg CO2eq; and N2O emissions were 81 Tg CO2eq. Energy and agriculture sectors contribute approximately 89% of national GHG emissions. Industrial processes, waste, and land use change and forestry (LUCF) sectors contribute the remaining 11% GHG emissions. A comparison with the 1994 GHG emission inventory of Pakistan shows that GHG emissions in Pakistan from 1994 to 2012 have increased at an annual growth rate of 4.1% and yet anticipated to increase further for meeting the national developmental goals; however, the per capita emissions in Pakistan will remain low when compared with the global average.

Analysis of baseline and alternative air quality scenarios for Pakistan: an integrated approach.

This study aims to assess the current and future air pollution and associated health impacts in Pakistan. In this study, the Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) is used to assess current and future energy consumption in Pakistan. To assess air pollution levels and associated health impacts, we used the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model. A linkage has been established between both the models to feed the energy outputs from Pak-IEM into GAINS for exploring different scenarios. Mainly, the emissions of three air pollutants (SO2, NOx, and PM2.5) as well as the associated health impacts of increased emissions are assessed. Baseline emission scenario (BES) shows a growth in emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 by a factor of 2.4, 2.2, and 2.5 between 2007 and 2030. In terms of health impacts, by 2030, annual mean concentrations of fine particles (PM2.5) would increase to more than 150 µg/m3 in some parts of Punjab region of Pakistan, for which loss in statistical life expectancy is calculated to increase from 30 to 60 months in 2007 up to 60-100 months in 2030 on average.

Potential of wind power projects under the Clean Development Mechanism in India.

BACKGROUND: So far, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power projects in India is far below their gross potential (