Examining inequalities in spatial access to national health insurance fund contracted facilities in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Kenya aims to achieve universal health coverage (UHC) by 2030 and has selected the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) as the 'vehicle' to drive the UHC agenda. While there is some progress in moving the country towards UHC, the availability and accessibility to NHIF-contracted facilities may be a barrier to equitable access to care. We estimated the spatial access to NHIF-contracted facilities in Kenya to provide information to advance the UHC agenda in Kenya. METHODS: We merged NHIF-contracted facility data to the geocoded inventory of health facilities in Kenya to assign facility geospatial locations. We combined this database with covariates data including road network, elevation, land use, and travel barriers. We estimated the proportion of the population living within 60- and 120-minute travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility at a 1-x1-kilometer spatial resolution nationally and at county levels using the WHO AccessMod tool. RESULTS: We included a total of 3,858 NHIF-contracted facilities. Nationally, 81.4% and 89.6% of the population lived within 60- and 120-minute travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility respectively. At the county level, the proportion of the population living within 1-hour of travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility ranged from as low as 28.1% in Wajir county to 100% in Nyamira and Kisii counties. Overall, only four counties (Kiambu, Kisii, Nairobi and Nyamira) had met the target of having 100% of their population living within 1-hour (60 min) travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility. On average, it takes 209, 210 and 216 min to travel to an NHIF-contracted facility, outpatient and inpatient facilities respectively. At the county level, travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility ranged from 10 min in Vihiga County to 333 min in Garissa. CONCLUSION: Our study offers evidence of the spatial access estimates to NHIF-contracted facilities in Kenya that can inform contracting decisions by the social health insurer, especially focussing on marginalised counties where more facilities need to be contracted. Besides, this evidence will be crucial as the country gears towards accelerating progress towards achieving UHC using social health insurance as the strategy to drive the UHC agenda in Kenya.

Understanding the contexts in which female sex workers sell sex in Kampala, Uganda: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Structural, interpersonal and individual level factors can present barriers for HIV prevention behaviour among people at high risk of HIV acquisition, including women who sell sex. In this paper we document the contexts in which women selling sex in Kampala meet and provide services to their clients. METHODS: We collected qualitative data using semi-structured interviews. Women were eligible to participate if they were 18 years or older, self-identified as sex workers or offered sex for money and spoke Luganda or English. Ten women who met clients in venues and outdoor locations were selected randomly from a clinic for women at high risk of HIV acquisition. Ten other women who met clients online were recruited using snowball sampling. Interviews included demographic data, and themes included reasons for joining and leaving sex work, work locations, nature of relationships with clients and peers, interaction with authorities, regulations on sex work, and reported stigma. We conducted interviews over three months. Data were analysed thematically using a framework analysis approach. The coding framework was based on structural factors identified from literature, but also modified inductively with themes arising from the interviews. RESULTS: Women met clients in physical and virtual spaces. Physical spaces included venues and outdoor locations, and virtual spaces were online platforms like social media applications and websites. Of the 20 women included, 12 used online platforms to meet clients. Generally, women from the clinic sample were less educated and predominantly unmarried, while those from the snowball sample had more education, had professional jobs, or were university students. Women from both samples reported experiences of stigma, violence from clients and authorities, and challenges accessing health care services due to the illegality of sex work. Even though all participants worked in settings where sex work was illegal and consequently endured harsh treatment, those from the snowball sample faced additional threats of cybersecurity attacks, extortion from clients, and high levels of violence from clients. CONCLUSIONS: To reduce risk of HIV acquisition among women who sell sex, researchers and implementers should consider these differences in contexts, challenges, and risks to design innovative interventions and programs that reach and include all women.

The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a "no-new-vaccine" counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96% of countries with higher TB burden. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult vaccine could produce $283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. CONCLUSIONS: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines.

New tuberculosis vaccines in India: modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination.

BACKGROUND: India had an estimated 2.9 million tuberculosis cases and 506 thousand deaths in 2021. Novel vaccines effective in adolescents and adults could reduce this burden. M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination have recently completed phase IIb trials and estimates of their population-level impact are needed. We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS: We developed an age-stratified compartmental tuberculosis transmission model for India calibrated to country-specific epidemiology. We projected baseline epidemiology to 2050 assuming no-new-vaccine introduction, and M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios over 2025-2050 exploring uncertainty in product characteristics (vaccine efficacy, mechanism of effect, infection status required for vaccine efficacy, duration of protection) and implementation (achieved vaccine coverage and ages targeted). We estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths by each scenario compared to the no-new-vaccine baseline, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives. RESULTS: M72/AS01E scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios. Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01E vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective. The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01E and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year. Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01E was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease. CONCLUSIONS: M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India. However, there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given the unknowns surrounding the mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy. Greater investment in vaccine development and delivery is needed to resolve these unknowns in vaccine product characteristics.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and social contact patterns in Pakistan: results from a national cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination is a key tool against COVID-19. However, in many settings it is not clear how acceptable COVID-19 vaccination is among the general population, or how hesitancy correlates with risk of disease acquisition. In this study we conducted a nationally representative survey in Pakistan to measure vaccination perceptions and social contacts in the context of COVID-19 control measures and vaccination programmes. METHODS: We conducted a vaccine perception and social contact survey with 3,658 respondents across five provinces in Pakistan, between 31 May and 29 June 2021. Respondents were asked a series of vaccine perceptions questions, to report all direct physical and non-physical contacts made the previous day, and a number of other questions regarding the social and economic impact of COVID-19 and control measures. We examined variation in perceptions and contact patterns by geographic and demographic factors. We describe knowledge, experiences and perceived risks of COVID-19. We explored variation in contact patterns by individual characteristics and vaccine hesitancy, and compared to patterns from non-pandemic periods. RESULTS: Self-reported adherence to self-isolation guidelines was poor, and 51% of respondents did not know where to access a COVID-19 test. Although 48.1% of participants agreed that they would get a vaccine if offered, vaccine hesitancy was higher than in previous surveys, and greatest in Sindh and Baluchistan provinces and among respondents of lower socioeconomic status. Participants reported a median of 5 contacts the previous day (IQR: 3-5, mean 14.0, 95%CI: 13.2, 14.9). There were no substantial differences in the number of contacts reported by individual characteristics, but contacts varied substantially among respondents reporting more or less vaccine hesitancy. Contacts were highly assortative, particularly outside the household where 97% of men's contacts were with other men. We estimate that social contacts were 9% lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Although the perceived risk of COVID-19 in Pakistan is low in the general population, around half of participants in this survey indicated they would get vaccinated if offered. Vaccine impact studies which do not account for correlation between social contacts and vaccine hesitancy may incorrectly estimate the impact of vaccines, for example, if unvaccinated people have more contacts.

Assessing the choice of National Health Insurance Fund contracted outpatient facilities in Kenya: A qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) members' level of understanding, experiences, and factors influencing their choice of NHIF-contracted outpatient facilities in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional qualitative study with NHIF members in two purposefully selected counties (Nyeri and Makueni counties) in Kenya. We collected data through 15 focus group discussions with NHIF members. Data were analysed using a framework analysis approach. RESULTS: Urban-based NHIF members had a good understanding of the NHIF-contracted outpatient facility selection process and the approaches for choosing and changing providers, unlike their rural counterparts. While NHIF members were required to choose a provider before accessing care, the number of available alternative facilities was perceived to be inadequate. Finally, NHIF members identified seven factors they considered important when choosing an NHIF-contracted outpatient provider. Of these factors, the availability of drugs, distance from the household to the facility and waiting time at the facility until consultation were considered the most important. CONCLUSION: There is a need for the NHIF to prioritise awareness-raising approaches tailored to rural settings. Further, there is a need for the NHIF to contract more providers to both spur competition among providers and provide alternatives for members to choose from. Besides, NHIF members revealed the important factors they consider when selecting outpatient facilities. Consequently, NHIF should leverage the preferred factors when contracting healthcare providers. Similarly, healthcare providers should enhance the availability of drugs, reduce waiting times whilst improving their staff's attitudes which would improve user satisfaction and the quality of care provided.

Social determinants of the changing tuberculosis prevalence in Viet Nam: Analysis of population-level cross-sectional studies.

BACKGROUND: An ecological relationship between economic development and reduction in tuberculosis prevalence has been observed. Between 2007 and 2017, Viet Nam experienced rapid economic development with equitable distribution of resources and a 37% reduction in tuberculosis prevalence. Analysing consecutive prevalence surveys, we examined how the reduction in tuberculosis (and subclinical tuberculosis) prevalence was concentrated between socioeconomic groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We combined data from 2 nationally representative Viet Nam tuberculosis prevalence surveys with provincial-level measures of poverty. Data from 94,156 (2007) and 61,763 (2017) individuals were included. Of people with microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis, 21.6% (47/218) in 2007 and 29.0% (36/124) in 2017 had subclinical disease. We constructed an asset index using principal component analysis of consumption data. An illness concentration index was estimated to measure socioeconomic position inequality in tuberculosis prevalence. The illness concentration index changed from -0.10 (95% CI -0.08, -0.16; p = 0.003) in 2007 to 0.07 (95% CI 0.06, 0.18; p = 0.158) in 2017, indicating that tuberculosis was concentrated among the poorest households in 2007, with a shift towards more equal distribution between rich and poor households in 2017. This finding was similar for subclinical tuberculosis. We fitted multilevel models to investigate relationships between change in tuberculosis prevalence, individual risks, household socioeconomic position, and neighbourhood poverty. Controlling for provincial poverty level reduced the difference in prevalence, suggesting that changes in neighbourhood poverty contribute to the explanation of change in tuberculosis prevalence. A limitation of our study is that while tuberculosis prevalence surveys are valuable for understanding socioeconomic differences in tuberculosis prevalence in countries, given that tuberculosis is a relatively rare disease in the population studied, there is limited power to explore socioeconomic drivers. However, combining repeated cross-sectional surveys with provincial deprivation estimates during a period of remarkable economic growth provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the relationship between tuberculosis and economic development in Viet Nam. CONCLUSIONS: We found that with equitable economic growth and a reduction in tuberculosis burden, tuberculosis became less concentrated among the poor in Viet Nam.

Characterising social contacts under COVID-19 control measures in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, countries adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as lockdowns to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Social contact studies help measure the effectiveness of NPIs and estimate parameters for modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, few contact studies have been conducted in Africa. METHODS: We analysed nationally representative cross-sectional survey data from 19 African Union Member States, collected by the Partnership for Evidence-based Responses to COVID-19 (PERC) via telephone interviews at two time points (August 2020 and February 2021). Adult respondents reported contacts made in the previous day by age group, demographic characteristics, and their attitudes towards COVID-19. We described mean and median contacts across these characteristics and related contacts to Google Mobility reports and the Oxford Government Response Stringency Index for each country at the two time points. RESULTS: Mean reported contacts varied across countries with the lowest reported in Ethiopia (9, SD=16, median = 4, IQR = 8) in August 2020 and the highest in Sudan (50, SD=53, median = 33, IQR = 40) in February 2021. Contacts of people aged 18-55 represented 50% of total contacts, with most contacts in household and work or study settings for both surveys. Mean contacts increased for Ethiopia, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, Sudan, and Uganda and decreased for Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Tunisia between the two time points. Men had more contacts than women and contacts were consistent across urban or rural settings (except in Cameroon and Kenya, where urban respondents had more contacts than rural ones, and in Senegal and Zambia, where the opposite was the case). There were no strong and consistent variations in the number of mean or median contacts by education level, self-reported health, perceived self-reported risk of infection, vaccine acceptance, mask ownership, and perceived risk of COVID-19 to health. Mean contacts were correlated with Google mobility (coefficient 0.57, p=0.051 and coefficient 0.28, p=0.291 in August 2020 and February 2021, respectively) and Stringency Index (coefficient -0.12, p = 0.304 and coefficient -0.33, p=0.005 in August 2020 and February 2021, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: These are the first COVID-19 social contact data collected for 16 of the 19 countries surveyed. We find a high reported number of daily contacts in all countries and substantial variations in mean contacts across countries and by gender. Increased stringency and decreased mobility were associated with a reduction in the number of contacts. These data may be useful to understand transmission patterns, model infection transmission, and for pandemic planning.

A Pregnant Pause: Rethinking Economic Evaluation in Contraception and Pregnancy.

Pregnancy presents a unique challenge to economic evaluation, requiring methods that can account for both maternal and fetal outcomes. The ethical challenges to healthcare presented by pregnancy are well understood, but these have not yet been incorporated into cost-effectiveness approaches. Economic evaluations of pregnancy currently take an ad hoc approach to outcome valuation, opening the door to biased estimates and inconsistent resource allocation. We summarize the limitations of current economic evaluation methods and outline key areas for future work.

Utility maximization versus regret minimization in health choice behavior: Evidence from four datasets.

Choice models in health are almost exclusively based on the neoclassical economic paradigm of utility maximization. Recently developed choice models have captured and shown empirical support for regret minimization as an alternative decision rule. In health economics, recent applications of RRM models indicate that individuals making health-based choices may exhibit regret minimization-type behavior. In this paper, we build on this research using a more flexible model that allows for heterogeneous decision rules, separately from preference heterogeneity, and comparing it to models that assume single decision rules. We use four datasets from diverse settings in which individuals make health choices: tobacco markets, genomic testing, and HIV prevention. We found that, if a one-size-fits-all rule is applied, then utility maximization was preferable to regret minimization for these datasets. However, we also find that individuals apply varying decision rules in similar proportions in these health settings, suggesting that models for heterogeneous decision rules were needed to capture these behaviors in these settings.

Discrete choice analysis of health worker job preferences in Ethiopia: Separating attribute non-attendance from taste heterogeneity.

When measuring preferences, discrete choice experiments (DCEs) typically assume that respondents consider all available information before making decisions. However, many respondents often only consider a subset of the choice characteristics, a heuristic called attribute non-attendance (ANA). Failure to account for ANA can bias DCE results, potentially leading to flawed policy recommendations. While conventional latent class logit models have most commonly been used to assess ANA in choices, these models are often not flexible enough to separate non-attendance from respondents' low valuation of certain attributes, resulting in inflated rates of ANA. In this paper, we show that semi-parametric mixtures of latent class models can be used to disentangle successfully inferred non-attendance from respondent's "weaker" taste sensitivities for certain attributes. In a DCE on the job preferences of health workers in Ethiopia, we demonstrate that such models provide more reliable estimates of inferred non-attendance than the alternative methods currently used. Moreover, since we find statistically significant variation in the rates of ANA exhibited by different health worker cadres, we highlight the need for well-defined attributes in a DCE, to ensure that ANA does not result from a weak experimental design.

Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review.

BACKGROUND: How best to prioritise COVID-19 vaccination within and between countries has been a public health and an ethical challenge for decision-makers globally. We reviewed epidemiological and economic modelling evidence on population priority groups to minimise COVID-19 mortality, transmission, and morbidity outcomes. METHODS: We searched the National Institute of Health iSearch COVID-19 Portfolio (a database of peer-reviewed and pre-print articles), Econlit, the Centre for Economic Policy Research, and the National Bureau of Economic Research for mathematical modelling studies evaluating the impact of prioritising COVID-19 vaccination to population target groups. The first search was conducted on March 3, 2021, and an updated search on the LMIC literature was conducted from March 3, 2021, to September 24, 2021. We narratively synthesised the main study conclusions on prioritisation and the conditions under which the conclusions changed. RESULTS: The initial search identified 1820 studies and 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. The updated search on LMIC literature identified 7 more studies. 43 studies in total were narratively synthesised. 74% of studies described outcomes in high-income countries (single and multi-country). We found that for countries seeking to minimise deaths, prioritising vaccination of senior adults was the optimal strategy and for countries seeking to minimise cases the young were prioritised. There were several exceptions to the main conclusion, notably that reductions in deaths could be increased if groups at high risk of both transmission and death could be further identified. Findings were also sensitive to the level of vaccine coverage. CONCLUSION: The evidence supports WHO SAGE recommendations on COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation. There is, however, an evidence gap on optimal prioritisation for low- and middle-income countries, studies that included an economic evaluation, and studies that explore prioritisation strategies if the aim is to reduce overall health burden including morbidity.

Evaluation of implementation and effectiveness of digital adherence technology with differentiated care to support tuberculosis treatment adherence and improve treatment outcomes in Ethiopia: a study protocol for a cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Digital adherence technologies (DATs) are recommended to support patient-centred, differentiated care to improve tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes, but evidence that such technologies improve adherence is limited. We aim to implement and evaluate the effectiveness of smart pillboxes and medication labels linked to an adherence data platform, to create a differentiated care response to patient adherence and improve TB care among adult pulmonary TB participants. Our study is part of the Adherence Support Coalition to End TB (ASCENT) project in Ethiopia. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a pragmatic three-arm cluster-randomised trial with 78 health facilities in two regions in Ethiopia. Facilities are randomised (1:1:1) to either of the two intervention arms or standard of care. Adults aged ≥ 18 years with drug-sensitive (DS) pulmonary TB are enrolled over 12 months and followed-up for 12 months after treatment initiation. Participants in facilities randomised to either of the two intervention arms are offered a DAT linked to the web-based ASCENT adherence platform for daily adherence monitoring and differentiated response to patient adherence for those who have missed doses. Participants at standard of care facilities receive routine care. For those that had bacteriologically confirmed TB at treatment initiation and can produce sputum without induction, sputum culture will be performed approximately 6 months after the end of treatment to measure disease recurrence. The primary endpoint is a composite unfavourable outcome measured over 12 months from TB treatment initiation defined as either poor end of treatment outcome (lost to follow-up, death, or treatment failure) or treatment recurrence measured 6 months after the scheduled end of treatment. This study will also evaluate the effectiveness, feasibility, and cost-effectiveness of DAT systems for DS-TB patients. DISCUSSION: This trial will evaluate the impact and contextual factors of medication label and smart pillbox with a differentiated response to patient care, among adult pulmonary DS-TB participants in Ethiopia. If successful, this evaluation will generate valuable evidence via a shared evaluation framework for optimal use and scale-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202008776694999, https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=12241 , registered on August 11, 2020.

Modelling the effect of market forces on the impact of introducing human immunodeficiency virus pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) enables female sex workers (FSWs) to protect themselves from HIV without relying on clients using condoms. Yet, because PrEP reduces HIV risk, financial incentives to not use condoms may lead to risk compensation: reductions in condom use and/or increases in commercial sex, and may reduce the price of unprotected sex. In this analysis, we integrate market forces into a dynamic HIV transmission model to assess how risk compensation could change the impact of PrEP among FSWs and clients. We parameterise how sexual behavior may change with PrEP use among FSWs using stated preference data combined with economic theory. Our projections suggest the impact of PrEP is sensitive to risk compensatory behaviors driven by changes in the economics of sex work. Condom substitution could reduce the impact of PrEP on HIV incidence by 55%, while increases in the frequency of commercial sex to counter decreases in the price charged for unprotected sex among PrEP users could entirely mitigate the impact of PrEP. Accounting for competition between PrEP users and nonusers exacerbates this further. Alternative scenarios where increases in unprotected sex among PrEP users are balanced by decreases in non-PrEP users have the opposite effect, resulting in PrEP having much greater impact. Intervention studies need to determine how HIV prevention products may change the economics of sex work and provision of unprotected sex to enable a better understanding of their impact.

The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements.

BACKGROUND: Many low- and middle-income countries have implemented control measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it is not clear to what extent these measures explain the low numbers of recorded COVID-19 cases and deaths in Africa. One of the main aims of control measures is to reduce respiratory pathogen transmission through direct contact with others. In this study, we collect contact data from residents of informal settlements around Nairobi, Kenya, to assess if control measures have changed contact patterns, and estimate the impact of changes on the basic reproduction number (R0). METHODS: We conducted a social contact survey with 213 residents of five informal settlements around Nairobi in early May 2020, 4 weeks after the Kenyan government introduced enhanced physical distancing measures and a curfew between 7 pm and 5 am. Respondents were asked to report all direct physical and non-physical contacts made the previous day, alongside a questionnaire asking about the social and economic impact of COVID-19 and control measures. We examined contact patterns by demographic factors, including socioeconomic status. We described the impact of COVID-19 and control measures on income and food security. We compared contact patterns during control measures to patterns from non-pandemic periods to estimate the change in R0. RESULTS: We estimate that control measures reduced physical contacts by 62% and non-physical contacts by either 63% or 67%, depending on the pre-COVID-19 comparison matrix used. Masks were worn by at least one person in 92% of contacts. Respondents in the poorest socioeconomic quintile reported 1.5 times more contacts than those in the richest. Eighty-six percent of respondents reported a total or partial loss of income due to COVID-19, and 74% reported eating less or skipping meals due to having too little money for food. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 control measures have had a large impact on direct contacts and therefore transmission, but have also caused considerable economic and food insecurity. Reductions in R0 are consistent with the comparatively low epidemic growth in Kenya and other sub-Saharan African countries that implemented similar, early control measures. However, negative and inequitable impacts on economic and food security may mean control measures are not sustainable in the longer term.

HIV prevention is not all about HIV - using a discrete choice experiment among women to model how the uptake and effectiveness of HIV prevention products may also rely on pregnancy and STI protection.

INTRODUCTION: In sub-Saharan Africa, considerable HIV-burden exists among women. Anti-retroviral (ARV) based prevention products could decrease this burden, and their uptake could be increased if they also protect against pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections (STI). METHODS: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was undertaken in South Africa (2015) through a household survey of adult females (n = 158) and adolescent girls (n = 204) who self-reported HIV-negative status. The DCE was used to project the uptake (percentage using product) of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), vaginal rings, and injectable long-lasting ARV agents among these women, and how uptake could depend on whether these products protect against pregnancy or STI acquisition. Uptake estimates were used to model how each product could decrease a women's HIV acquisition risk. RESULTS: In adolescent women, there will be limited uptake (< 6% for any product) and impact (< 4% decrease in HIV acquisition risk) of new products unless they provide pregnancy protection, which could quadruple use and impact. Adult women have weaker preference for pregnancy protection, with moderate use (< 17% for each) and impact (< 14 percentage point decrease) if they only provide HIV protection. All women had highest preference for injectable ARVs, with oral PrEP having high preference if injectable ARVs are not available. Adult women will use the ring, but adolescent women will not. Importantly, even with three additional prevention products, all providing pregnancy and STI protection, > 14% of women will remain unprotected and > 31% of the baseline acquisition risk will remain. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating multiple prevention components into new ARV-based prevention products may increase their uptake and impact among women.

Framing and signalling effects of taxes on sugary drinks: A discrete choice experiment among households in Great Britain.

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are in place in many countries to combat obesity with emerging evidence that these are effective in reducing purchases of SSBs. In this study, we tested whether signalling and framing the price increase from an SSB tax explicitly as a health-related, earmarked measure reduces the demand for SSBs more than an equivalent price increase. We measured the demand for non-alcoholic beverages with a discrete choice experiment (DCE) administered online to a randomly selected group of n = 603 households with children in Great Britain (GB) who regularly purchase SSBs. We find a suggestive evidence that a price increase leads to a larger reduction in the probability of choosing SSBs when it is signalled as a tax and framed as a health-related and earmarked policy. Respondents who did not support a tax on SSBs, who were also more likely to choose SSBs in the first place, were on average more responsive to a price increase framed as an earmarked tax than those who supported the tax. The predictive validity of the DCE, to capture preferences for beverages, was confirmed using actual purchase data. The findings imply that a well-signalled and earmarked tax on SSBs could improve its effectiveness at reducing the demand.

Challenges experienced with early introduction and sustained consumption of allergenic foods in the Enquiring About Tolerance (EAT) study: A qualitative analysis.

BACKGROUND: The early introduction group participants of the Enquiring About Tolerance study were asked to undertake a proscriptive regimen of early introduction and sustained consumption of 6 allergenic foods. It was envisaged that this might be challenging, and early introduction group families were presented with an open-text question to express any problems they were experiencing with the regimen in recurring online questionnaires. OBJECTIVE: We sought to analyze these open-text questionnaire responses with the aim of identifying challenges associated with the introduction and regular consumption of allergenic foods. METHODS: Three combinations of interim questionnaire responses were selected for analysis, representing the early period (4, 5, and 6 months), middle period (8 and 12 months), and late period (24 and 36 months) of participation in the Enquiring About Tolerance study. Responses were assigned a code to describe their content and subsequently grouped into themes to portray key messages. A thematic content analysis allowed for conversion of qualitative codes into quantitative summaries. RESULTS: Three main challenges to allergenic food consumption were identified. First, some children refused the allergenic food, causing a sense of defeat among caregivers. Second, caregivers were concerned that allergenic foods might be causing a reaction, triggering a need for reassurance. Third, practical problems associated with the regimen compromised caregivers' capacity to persist. CONCLUSION: Understanding the challenges experienced with allergenic food introduction and sustained consumption is the necessary precursor to developing specific communication and support strategies that could be used by caregivers, practitioners, policymakers, and key stakeholders to address these problems.

Determinants of heterosexual men's demand for long-acting injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV in urban South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Heterosexual men in South Africa are a large key population to exposure to HIV, yet preferences for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among this population have not, to date, been investigated in the literature. This paper aims to explore HIV prevention preferences among heterosexual men in urban South Africa, as well as to examine the demand and characteristics of men who favour long-acting injectable (LAI) PrEP over condoms and oral PrEP. METHODS: Data were collected among 178 self-reported HIV-negative heterosexual men, who were given example products and information before being asked which they preferred. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyse which characteristics were associated with product choice. RESULTS: 48% (n = 85) of participants preferred LAI PrEP, while 33% (n = 58) and 20% (n = 35) chose oral PrEP and condoms respectively. Having children (marginal effect = 0.22; 95% CI [0.01, 0.44]) or having higher risk attitude scores (marginal effect = 0.03; 95% CI [0.01, 0.06]) was significantly associated with a choice of LAI PrEP, while those who had unprotected anal intercourse (marginal effect = - 0.42; 95% CI [- 0.57, - 0.27]) and those who were concerned with protection against other sexually transmitted infections over HIV (marginal effect = - 0.42; 95% CI [- 0.60, - 0.24]) appeared less likely to prefer LAI PrEP. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested a relatively high demand and theoretical acceptability for LAI PrEP among heterosexual men in urban South Africa, but there appeared to be fewer distinct predictors for the willingness to use LAI PrEP compared to studies conducted among gay and bisexual men and women. Nevertheless, the findings contribute to the mapping of the demand and determinants of heterosexual men's preferences for novel antiretroviral-based prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, and the data could aid in the differentiated design of future HIV prevention strategies using LAI PrEP in conjunction with other methods.

Preventing and responding to depression, self-harm, and suicide in older people living in long term care settings: a systematic review.

Objective: The well documented demographic shift to an aging population means that more people will in future be in need of long term residential care. Previous research has reported an increased risk of mental health issues and suicidal ideation among older people living in residential care settings. However, there is little information on the actual prevalence of depression, self-harm, and suicidal behavior in this population, how it is measured and how care homes respond to these issues. Method: This systematic review of international literature addressed three research questions relating to; the prevalence of mental health problems in this population; how they are identified and; how care homes try to prevent or respond to mental health issues. Results: Findings showed higher reported rates of depression and suicidal behavior in care home residents compared to matched age groups in the community, variation in the use of standardised measures across studies and, interventions almost exclusively focused on increasing staff knowledge about mental health but with an absence of involvement of older people themselves in these programmes. Conclusion: We discuss the implications of these findings in the context of addressing mental health difficulties experienced by older people in residential care and future research in this area.