Analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of imperfect diagnostics to inform outbreak response: Application to the 2017 plague epidemic in Madagascar.

During outbreaks, the lack of diagnostic "gold standard" can mask the true burden of infection in the population and hamper the allocation of resources required for control. Here, we present an analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of diagnostics when multiple yet imperfect diagnostic tests are available. We apply it to laboratory results of 2,136 samples, analyzed with 3 diagnostic tests (based on up to 7 diagnostic outcomes), collected during the 2017 pneumonic (PP) and bubonic plague (BP) outbreak in Madagascar, which was unprecedented both in the number of notified cases, clinical presentation, and spatial distribution. The extent of these outbreaks has however remained unclear due to nonoptimal assays. Using latent class methods, we estimate that 7% to 15% of notified cases were Yersinia pestis-infected. Overreporting was highest during the peak of the outbreak and lowest in the rural settings endemic to Y. pestis. Molecular biology methods offered the best compromise between sensitivity and specificity. The specificity of the rapid diagnostic test was relatively low (PP: 82%, BP: 85%), particularly for use in contexts with large quantities of misclassified cases. Comparison with data from a subsequent seasonal Y. pestis outbreak in 2018 reveal better test performance (BP: specificity 99%, sensitivity: 91%), indicating that factors related to the response to a large, explosive outbreak may well have affected test performance. We used our framework to optimize the case classification and derive consolidated epidemic trends. Our approach may help reduce uncertainties in other outbreaks where diagnostics are imperfect.

Multiple Introductions of Yersinia pestis during Urban Pneumonic Plague Epidemic, Madagascar, 2017.

Pneumonic plague (PP) is characterized by high infection rate, person-to-person transmission, and rapid progression to severe disease. In 2017, a PP epidemic occurred in 2 Madagascar urban areas, Antananarivo and Toamasina. We used epidemiologic data and Yersinia pestis genomic characterization to determine the sources of this epidemic. Human plague emerged independently from environmental reservoirs in rural endemic foci >20 times during August-November 2017. Confirmed cases from 5 emergences, including 4 PP cases, were documented in urban areas. Epidemiologic and genetic analyses of cases associated with the first emergence event to reach urban areas confirmed that transmission started in August; spread to Antananarivo, Toamasina, and other locations; and persisted in Antananarivo until at least mid-November. Two other Y. pestis lineages may have caused persistent PP transmission chains in Antananarivo. Multiple Y. pestis lineages were independently introduced to urban areas from several rural foci via travel of infected persons during the epidemic.

Transmission of Antimicrobial Resistant Yersinia pestis During a Pneumonic Plague Outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonic plague (PP), caused by Yersinia pestis, is the most feared clinical form of plague due to its rapid lethality and potential to cause outbreaks. PP outbreaks are now rare due to antimicrobial therapy. METHODS: A PP outbreak in Madagascar involving transmission of a Y. pestis strain resistant to streptomycin, the current recommended first-line treatment in Madagascar, was retrospectively characterized using epidemiology, clinical diagnostics, molecular characterization, and animal studies. RESULTS: The outbreak occurred in February 2013 in the Faratsiho district of Madagascar and involved 22 cases, including 3 untreated fatalities. The 19 other cases participated in funeral practices for the fatal cases and fully recovered after combination antimicrobial therapy: intramuscular streptomycin followed by oral co-trimoxazole. The Y. pestis strain that circulated during this outbreak is resistant to streptomycin resulting from a spontaneous point mutation in the 30S ribosomal protein S12 (rpsL) gene. This same mutation causes streptomycin resistance in 2 unrelated Y. pestis strains, one isolated from a fatal PP case in a different region of Madagascar in 1987 and another isolated from a fatal PP case in China in 1996, documenting this mutation has occurred independently at least 3 times in Y. pestis. Laboratory experiments revealed this mutation has no detectable impact on fitness or virulence, and revertants to wild-type are rare in other species containing it, suggesting Y. pestis strains containing it could persist in the environment. CONCLUSIONS: Unique antimicrobial resistant (AMR) strains of Y. pestis continue to arise in Madagascar and can be transmitted during PP outbreaks.

Improved Selective BIN Agar for a Better Rate of Yersinia pestis Isolation from Primary Clinical Specimens in Suspected Madagascar Plague Cases.

According to the WHO, 75% of the world's plague cases are found in Madagascar, with an average of 200 to 700 cases suspected annually (mainly bubonic plague). In 2017, a pneumonic plague epidemic of unusual proportions occurred, which raised several challenges for laboratory confirmation of cases, pointing to the need for the development of Yersinia pestis isolation procedures, especially those that can be performed in remote areas. As the WHO gold standard for plague diagnosis is bacterial culture, we sought to develop a simple method to prepare a highly selective medium, fit for use in remote areas where plague is endemic. The performance of the new medium, named improved BIN, was examined in terms of growth support and selectivity with spiked samples as well in isolating Y. pestis from clinical specimens, and it was compared to the results obtained with commercially available selective media. The preparation of the new medium is less complex and its performance was found to be superior to that of first-generation BIN medium. The growth support of the medium is higher, there is no batch diversity, and it maintains high selectivity properties. In 55 clinical specimens obtained from patients suspected to be infected with Y. pestis, approximately 20% more Y. pestis-positive isolates were identified by the improved BIN medium than were identified by commercially available selective media. The improved BIN medium is notably advantageous for the isolation of Y. pestis from clinical specimens obtained from plague patients, thus offering better surveillance tools and proper promotion of medical treatment to more patients suspected of being infected with Y. pestis.

A decade of plague in Madagascar: a description of two hotspot districts.

BACKGROUND: Human plague cases, mainly in the bubonic form, occur annually in endemic regions of the central highlands of Madagascar. The aim of this study was to compare the dynamics of the epidemiological features of the human plague in two districts of the central highlands region. METHODS: In Madagascar, all clinically suspected plague cases that meet clinical and epidemiological criteria specified in the World Health Organization (WHO) standard case definition are reported to the national surveillance system. Data on plague cases reported between 2006 and 2015 in the districts of Ambositra and Tsiroanomandidy were analysed. Statistical comparisons between the epidemiological characteristics of the two districts were conducted. RESULTS: A total of 840 cases of plague were reported over the studied period, including 563 (67%) probable and confirmed cases (P + C). Out of these P + C cases, nearly 86% (488/563) were cases of bubonic plague. Reported clinical forms of plague were significantly different between the districts from 2006 to 2015 (p = 0.001). Plague cases occurred annually in a period of 10 years in the Tsiroanomandidy district. During the same period, the Ambositra district was characterized by a one-year absence of cases. CONCLUSION: The differences in the epidemiological situation with respect to the plague from 2006 to 2015 in the two central highlands districts may suggest that several factors other than biogeographical factors determine the representation of the plague and its dynamics in this region. Considering the epidemiological situations according to the specific contexts of the districts could improve the results in the fight against the plague in Madagascar.

Influence of Sociospatial determinants on knowledge, attitudes and practices related to the plague in a population living in endemic areas in the central highlands, Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague is endemic to the central highlands of Madagascar. Sporadic human cases or outbreaks can occur annually in these areas. In Madagascar, the associations between endemicity and the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of the population with regard to this disease remain poorly documented. The aim of this study was to assess KAP related to plague among the population living in the central highlands. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in the general population from June to August 2017. Based on the reported cases of plague between 2006 and 2015 in two central highland districts, a KAP questionnaire was administered in the population. Based on the proportion of correct answers provided by respondents, KAP scores were classified into three KAP categories: low (< Mean - SD), medium (Mean ± SD) and good (> Mean + SD). Multivariate analyses were performed to determine the associations between population KAP scores related to plague and sociodemographic and epidemiological factors. In addition, individual interviews and focus groups with health professionals were conducted to assess plague perception. RESULTS: A total of 597 individuals participated in the survey; 20% (n = 119) had a good KAP score, 62% (n = 370) a medium KAP score and 18% (n = 108) a low KAP score. Among the 119 respondents with good KAP scores, 80% (n = 95) resided in Ambositra district, and 20% (n = 24) resided in Tsiroanomandidy district. According to the health professionals in the two districts, populations in endemic areas are well aware of the plague. There were significant associations (p <  0.05) of not owning a mobile phone, having no contact with a former plague case, and living in Tsiroanomandidy district with a lower KAP score. CONCLUSION: The results of the study showed the need to adapt plague control interventions to the local context to allow a better allocation of human and financial resources. Doing so would minimize delays in patient management care and increase community resilience to plague epidemics.

Human Exposure to Hantaviruses Associated with Rodents of the Murinae Subfamily, Madagascar.

We conducted a national human serologic study of a hantavirus detected in Madagascar rodents using a commercial kit and a new ELISA targeting the virus. Our results suggest a conservative estimate of 2.7% (46/1,680) IgG seroprevalence. A second single-district study using the new ELISA revealed a higher prevalence (7.2%; 10/139).

Performance of plague rapid diagnostic test compared to bacteriology: a retrospective analysis of the data collected in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague is a highly fatal disease caused by Yersinia pestis. Late diagnosis hampers disease outcome and effectiveness of control measures, induces death and disease spread. Advance on its diagnosis was the use of lateral flow rapid diagnostic test (RDT). METHODS: We assessed the performance of the plague RDT based on Y. pestis F1 antigen detection more than 15 years after its deployment in Madagascar. We compared the RDT with bacteriological culture results, using data from plague notified cases collected during the periods for which both tests were performed independently and systematically. RESULTS: Used with bubonic plague (BP) patient samples, RDTs had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 99.7-100%), a specificity of 67% (95% CI: 64-70%) with a good agreement between bacteriology and RDT results (86%; κ = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.73). For pneumonic plague (PP), RDT had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 91-100%) and a specificity of 59% (95% CI: 49-68%) and concordance between the bacteriological and plague RDT results was moderate (70%; κ = 0.43, 95% CI 0.32-0.55). Analysis focusing on the 2017-2018 plague season including the unprecedented epidemic of PP showed that RDT used on BP samples still had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 85-100%) and a specificity of 82% (95% CI: 48-98%) with a very good agreement with bacteriology 94% (κ = 0.86, 95% CI 0.67-1); for PP samples, concordance between the bacteriological and plague RDT results was poor (61%; κ = - 0.03, 95% CI -0.17 - 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: RDT performance appeared to be similar for the diagnosis of BP and PP except during the 2017 PP epidemic where RDT performance was low. This RDT, with its good sensitivity on both plague clinical forms during a normal plague season, remained a potential test for alert. Particularly for BP, it may be of great value in the decision process for the initiation of therapy. However, for PP, RDT may deliver false negative results due to inconsistent sample quality. Plague diagnosis could be improved through the development of next generation of RDTs.

Short- and long-term humoral immune response against Yersinia pestis in plague patients, Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague, a fatal disease caused by the bacillus, Yersinia pestis, still affects resources-limited countries. Information on antibody response to plague infection in human is scarce. Anti-F1 Ig G are among the known protective antibodies against Y. pestis infection. As a vaccine preventable disease, knowledge on antibody response is valuable for the development of an effective vaccine to reduce infection rate among exposed population in plague-endemic regions. In this study, we aim to describe short and long-term humoral immune responses against Y. pestis in plague-confirmed patients from Madagascar, the most affected country in the world. METHODS: Bubonic (BP) and pneumonic plague (PP) patients were recruited from plague- endemic foci in the central highlands of Madagascar between 2005 and 2017. For short-term follow-up, 6 suspected patients were enrolled and prospectively investigated for kinetics of the anti-F1 IgG response, whereas the persistence of antibodies was retrospectively studied in 71 confirmed convalescent patients, using an ELISA which was validated for the detection of plague in human blood samples in Madagascar. RESULTS: Similarly to previous findings, anti-F1 IgG rose quickly during the first week after disease onset and increased up to day 30. In the long-term study, 56% of confirmed cases remained seropositive, amongst which 60 and 40% could be considered as high- and low-antibody responders, respectively. Antibodies persisted for several years and up to 14.8 years for one individual. Antibody titers decreased over time but there was no correlation between titer and time elapsed between the disease onset and serum sampling. In addition, the seroprevalence rate was not significantly different between gender (P = 0.65) nor age (P = 0.096). CONCLUSION: Our study highlighted that the circulating antibody response to F1 antigen, which is specific to Y. pestis, may be attributable to individual immune responsiveness. The finding that a circulating anti-F1 antibody titer could persist for more than a decade in both BP and PP recovered patients, suggests its probable involvement in patients' protection. However, complementary studies including analyses of the cellular immune response to Y. pestis are required for the better understanding of long-lasting protection and development of a potential vaccine against plague.

Trends of Human Plague, Madagascar, 1998-2016.

Madagascar is more seriously affected by plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, than any other country. The Plague National Control Program was established in 1993 and includes human surveillance. During 1998-2016, a total of 13,234 suspected cases were recorded, mainly from the central highlands; 27% were confirmed cases, and 17% were presumptive cases. Patients with bubonic plague (median age 13 years) represented 93% of confirmed and presumptive cases, and patients with pneumonic plague (median age 29 years) represented 7%. Deaths were associated with delay of consultation, pneumonic form, contact with other cases, occurrence after 2009, and not reporting dead rats. A seasonal pattern was observed with recrudescence during September-March. Annual cases peaked in 2004 and decreased to the lowest incidence in 2016. This overall reduction occurred primarily for suspected cases and might be caused by improved adherence to case criteria during widespread implementation of the F1 rapid diagnostic test in 2002.

Leptospira in livestock in Madagascar: uncultured strains, mixed infections and small mammal-livestock transmission highlight challenges in controlling and diagnosing leptospirosis in the developing world.

In developing countries, estimates of the prevalence and diversity of Leptospira infections in livestock, an important but neglected zoonotic pathogen and cause of livestock productivity loss, are lacking. In Madagascar, abattoir sampling of cattle and pigs demonstrated a prevalence of infection of 20% in cattle and 5% in pigs by real-time PCR. In cattle, amplification and sequencing of the Leptospira-specific lfb1 gene revealed novel genotypes, mixed infections of two or more Leptospira species and evidence for potential transmission between small mammals and cattle. Sequencing of the secY gene demonstrated genetic similarities between Leptospira detected in Madagascar and, as yet, uncultured Leptospira strains identified in Tanzania, Reunion and Brazil. Detection of Leptospira DNA in the same animal was more likely in urine samples or pooled samples from four kidney lobes relative to samples collected from a single kidney lobe, suggesting an effect of sampling method on detection. In pigs, no molecular typing of positive samples was possible. Further research into the epidemiology of livestock leptospirosis in developing countries is needed to inform efforts to reduce human infections and to improve livestock productivity.

Mixed Leptospira Infections in a Diverse Reservoir Host Community, Madagascar, 2013-2015.

We identified mixed infections of pathogenic Leptospira in small mammals across a landscape-scale study area in Madagascar by using primers targeting different Leptospira spp. Using targeted primers increased prevalence estimates and evidence for transmission between endemic and invasive hosts. Future studies should assess rodentborne transmission of Leptospira to humans.

Mixed pneumonic plague and nosocomial MDR-bacterial infection of lung: a rare case report.

BACKGROUND: Plague is a life-threatening disease caused by the bacterium, Yersinia pestis. Madagascar is the leading country for human plague cases worldwide. Human plague is a serious disease, particularly in its septicaemic and pneumonic forms. We report a case of pneumonic plague co-infected by a MDR-Stenotrophomonas maltophilia. CASE PRESENTATION: A 24 year-old man originated from Soavinandriana, a plague focus, felt uneasy and developed high fever with chills. He started treatment by himself, by private medical care and by a traditional healer for nine days moving several times from place to place. His condition had deteriorated when he presented to a district hospital with a syndrome of dyspnea, bronchial rale and altered state of consciousness. Two days later, plague diagnosis, performed as a last resort, revealed a positive F1 antigen on rapid diagnostic test. Additional tests (pla PCR and plague serology) evidenced a Y. pestis infection. However, streptomycin treatment did not achieve a complete recovery as the course of disease was complicated by the presence of MDR-S. maltophilia in his lung. This opportunistic infection could have been favored by an immunosuppression due to Y. pestis pulmonary infection and probably been acquired during his stay at a District Hospital. He was treated with a combination of ciprofloxacin and gentamycin and recovered fully. CONCLUSIONS: Pneumonic plague infection may promote another virulent or avirulent bacterial infection particularly when it is not initially suspected. However, coinfection is rarely described and its occurrence frequency is unknown. In middle or low resources areas, which is the case of most plague endemic countries, control and prevention of infections in health facilities is not optimal. Co-infection with an opportunistic pathogen agent, such as S. maltophilia, is a risk which must not be disregarded as demonstrated by this case report. When deciding of a national control strategy, it should be taken into account in the choice of the first line treatment.

Pneumonic Plague Transmission, Moramanga, Madagascar, 2015.

During a pneumonic plague outbreak in Moramanga, Madagascar, we identified 4 confirmed, 1 presumptive, and 9 suspected plague case-patients. Human-to-human transmission among close contacts was high (reproductive number 1.44) and the case fatality rate was 71%. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the Yersinia pestis isolates belonged to group q3, different from the previous outbreak.

Pneumonic plague outbreak, Northern Madagascar, 2011.

Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, is endemic to Madagascar, particularly to the central highlands. Although plague has not been previously reported in northern Madagascar, an outbreak of pneumonic plague occurred in this remote area in 2011. Over a 27-day period, 17 suspected, 2 presumptive, and 3 confirmed human cases were identified, and all 15 untreated 20 patients died. Molecular typing of Y. pestis isolated from 2 survivors and 5 Rattus rattus rat samples identified the Madagascar-specific 1.ORI3-k single-nucleotide polymorphism genotype and 4 clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat patterns. This outbreak had a case-fatality rate of 100% for nontreated patients. The Y. pestis 1.ORI3-k single-nucleotide polymorphism genotype might cause larger epidemics. Multidrug-resistant strains and persistence of the pathogen in natural foci near human settlements pose severe risks to populations in plague-endemic regions and require outbreak response strategies.

Review of genotyping methods for Yersinia pestis in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague, a zoonotic disease caused by Yersinia pestis, was responsible for 3 historical human pandemics that killed millions of people. It remains endemic in rodent populations in Africa, Asia, North America, and South America but human plague is rare in most of these locations. However, human plague is still highly prevalent in Madagascar, which typically records a significant part of all annual global cases. This has afforded an opportunity to study contemporary human plague in detail using various typing methods for Y. pestis. AIM: This review aims to summarize the methods that have been used to type Y. pestis in Madagascar along with the major discoveries that have been made using these approaches. METHODS: Pubmed and Google Scholar were used to search for the keywords: "typing Yersinia pestis Madagascar," "evolution Yersinia pestis Madagascar," and "diversity Yersinia pestis Madagascar." Eleven publications were relevant to our topic and further information was retrieved from references cited in those publications. RESULTS: The history of Y. pestis typing in Madagascar can be divided in 2 periods: the pre-genomics and genomics eras. During the pre-genomics era, ribotyping, direct observation of plasmid content and plasmid restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLP) were employed but only revealed a limited amount of diversity among Malagasy Y. pestis strains. Extensive diversity only started to be revealed in the genomics era with the use of clustered regularly interspaced palindromic repeats (CRISPR), multiple-locus variable number tandem repeats (VNTR) analysis (MLVA), and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) discovered from whole genome sequences. These higher-resolution genotyping methods have made it possible to highlight the distribution and persistence of genotypes in the different plague foci of Madagascar (Mahajanga and the Central and Northern Highlands) by genotyping strains from the same locations across years, to detect transfers between foci, to date the emergence of genotypes, and even to document the transmission of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) strains during a pneumonic plague outbreak. Despite these discoveries, there still remain topics that deserve to be explored, such as the contribution of horizontal gene transfer to the evolution of Malagasy Y. pestis strains and the evolutionary history of Y. pestis in Madagascar. CONCLUSIONS: Genotyping of Y. pestis has yielded important insights on plague in Madagascar, particularly since the advent of whole-genome sequencing (WGS). These include a better understanding of plague persistence in the environment, antimicrobial AMR and multi-drug resistance in Y. pestis, and the person-to-person spread of pneumonic plague. Considering that human plague is still a significant public health threat in Madagascar, these insights can be useful for controlling and preventing human plague in Madagascar and elsewhere, and also are relevant for understanding the historical pandemics and the possible use of Y. pestis as a biological weapon.

Reproductive ecology of the black rat (Rattus rattus) in Madagascar: the influence of density-dependent and -independent effects.

The black rat (Rattus rattus) poses a severe threat to food security and public health in Madagascar, where it is a major cause of pre- and post-harvest crop losses and an important reservoir for many zoonotic diseases, including plague. Elsewhere, ecologically based rodent management (EBRM) strategies have been developed using ecological information to inform decisions on where and when to target control. EBRM could deliver improved health and well-being outcomes in Madagascar if adapted to the local ecological context. Using data collected from removal studies, we explored spatio-temporal patterns in the breeding activity of the black rat (R. rattus) in domestic and agricultural habitats across Madagascar and investigated to what extent these trends are influenced by rainfall and rat density. We identified clear spatio-temporal variation in the seasonality of R. rattus reproduction. Reproduction was highly seasonal both inside and outside of houses, but seasonal trends varied between these two habitats. Seasonal trends were explained, in part, by variation in rainfall; however, the effect of rainfall on reproductive rates did itself vary by season and habitat type. A decline in breeding intensity with increasing rat density was recorded outside of houses. This has important implications for control, as populations may compensate for removal through increased reproduction. We recommend that sustained control initiated before the main breeding season, combined with improved hygiene and adequate rodent-proofing in homes and grain stores, could curtail population growth and reduce pre- and post-harvest losses provided that these measures overcome the compensatory response of rodent populations.

Population dynamics of plague vector fleas in an endemic focus: implications for plague surveillance.

Plague is a zoonotic vector-borne disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. In Madagascar, it persists in identified foci, where it is a threat to public health generally from September to April. A more complete understanding of how the disease persists could guide control strategies. Fleas are the main vector for transmission between small mammal hosts and humans, and fleas likely play a role in the maintenance of plague. This study characterized the dynamics of flea populations in plague foci alongside the occurrence of human cases. From 2018 to 2020, small mammals were trapped at sites in the central Highlands of Madagascar. A total of 2,762 small mammals were captured and 5,295 fleas were collected. The analysis examines 2 plague vector species in Madagascar (Synopsyllus fonquerniei and Xenopsylla cheopis). Generalized linear models were used to relate flea abundance to abiotic factors, with adjustments for trap location and flea species. We observed significant effects of abiotic factors on the abundance, intensity, and infestation rate by the outdoor-associated flea species, S. fonquerniei, but weak seasonality for the indoor-associated flea species, X. cheopis. A difference in the timing of peak abundance was observed between the 2 flea species during and outside the plague season. While the present study did not identify a clear link between flea population dynamics and plague maintenance, as only one collected X. cheopis was infected, the results presented herein can be used by local health authorities to improve monitoring and control strategies of plague vector fleas in Madagascar.

Socio-ecological risk factors associated with human flea infestations of rural household in plague-endemic areas of Madagascar.

Plague is a flea-borne fatal disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which persists in rural Madagascar. Although fleas parasitizing rats are considered the primary vectors of Y. pestis, the human flea, Pulex irritans, is abundant in human habitations in Madagascar, and has been found naturally infected by the plague bacterium during outbreaks. While P. irritans may therefore play a role in plague transmission if present in plague endemic areas, the factors associated with infestation and human exposure within such regions are little explored. To determine the socio-ecological risk factors associated with P. irritans infestation in rural households in plague-endemic areas of Madagascar, we used a mixed-methods approach, integrating results from P. irritans sampling, a household survey instrument, and an observational checklist. Using previously published vectorial capacity data, the minimal P. irritans index required for interhuman bubonic plague transmission was modeled to determine whether household infestations were enough to pose a plague transmission risk. Socio-ecological risk factors associated with a high P. irritans index were then identified for enrolled households using generalized linear models. Household flea abundance was also modeled using the same set of predictors. A high P. irritans index occurred in approximately one third of households and was primarily associated with having a traditional dirt floor covered with a plant fiber mat. Interventions targeting home improvement and livestock housing management may alleviate flea abundance and plague risk in rural villages experiencing high P. irritans infestation. As plague-control resources are limited in developing countries such as Madagascar, identifying the household parameters and human behaviors favoring flea abundance, such as those identified in this study, are key to developing preventive measures that can be implemented at the community level.

Plague outbreak in Libya, 2009, unrelated to plague in Algeria.

After 25 years of no cases of plague, this disease recurred near Tobruk, Libya, in 2009. An epidemiologic investigation identified 5 confirmed cases. We determined ribotypes, Not1 restriction profiles, and IS100 and IS1541 hybridization patterns of strains isolated during this outbreak. We also analyzed strains isolated during the 2003 plague epidemic in Algeria to determine whether there were epidemiologic links between the 2 events. Our results demonstrate unambiguously that neighboring but independent plague foci coexist in Algeria and Libya. They also indicate that these outbreaks were most likely caused by reactivation of organisms in local or regional foci believed to be dormant (Libya) or extinct (Algeria) for decades, rather than by recent importation of Yersinia pestis from distant foci. Environmental factors favorable for plague reemergence might exist in this area and lead to reactivation of organisms in other ancient foci.