Aspen recovery in northern Yellowstone: A comment on Brice et al. (2021).

Aspen sapling recruitment increased as browsing by elk decreased, following the 1995-96 reintroduction of wolves in Yellowstone National Park. We address claims by Brice et al. (2021) that previous studies exaggerated recent aspen recovery. We conclude that their results actually supported previous work showing a trophic cascade benefiting aspen.

Global forest loss disproportionately erodes biodiversity in intact landscapes.

Global biodiversity loss is a critical environmental crisis, yet the lack of spatial data on biodiversity threats has hindered conservation strategies. Theory predicts that abrupt biodiversity declines are most likely to occur when habitat availability is reduced to very low levels in the landscape (10-30%). Alternatively, recent evidence indicates that biodiversity is best conserved by minimizing human intrusion into intact and relatively unfragmented landscapes. Here we use recently available forest loss data to test deforestation effects on International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List categories of extinction risk for 19,432 vertebrate species worldwide. As expected, deforestation substantially increased the odds of a species being listed as threatened, undergoing recent upgrading to a higher threat category and exhibiting declining populations. More importantly, we show that these risks were disproportionately high in relatively intact landscapes; even minimal deforestation has had severe consequences for vertebrate biodiversity. We found little support for the alternative hypothesis that forest loss is most detrimental in already fragmented landscapes. Spatial analysis revealed high-risk hot spots in Borneo, the central Amazon and the Congo Basin. In these regions, our model predicts that 121-219 species will become threatened under current rates of forest loss over the next 30 years. Given that only 17.9% of these high-risk areas are formally protected and only 8.9% have strict protection, new large-scale conservation efforts to protect intact forests are necessary to slow deforestation rates and to avert a new wave of global extinctions.

Large carnivores under assault in Alaska.

In Alaska, gray wolves (Canis lupis), brown bears (Ursus arctos), and black bears (U. americanus) are managed in most of the state in ways intended to significantly reduce their abundance in the expectation of increasing hunter harvests of ungulates. To our knowledge, Alaska is unique in the world because this management priority is both widespread and mandated by state law. Large carnivore management in Alaska is a reversion to outdated management concepts and occurs without effective monitoring programs designed to scientifically evaluate impacts on predator populations. Large carnivore management in Alaska should be based on rigorous science including the status and trends of carnivore populations.

Correction: Large carnivores under assault in Alaska.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000090.].

A novel trophic cascade between cougars and feral donkeys shapes desert wetlands.

Introduced large herbivores have partly filled ecological gaps formed in the late Pleistocene, when many of the Earth's megafauna were driven extinct. However, extant predators are generally considered incapable of exerting top-down influences on introduced megafauna, leading to unusually strong disturbance and herbivory relative to native herbivores. We report on the first documented predation of juvenile feral donkeys Equus africanus asinus by cougars Puma concolor in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts of North America. We then investigated how cougar predation corresponds with differences in feral donkey behaviour and associated effects on desert wetlands. Focusing on a feral donkey population in the Death Valley National Park, we used camera traps and vegetation surveys to compare donkey activity patterns and impacts between wetlands with and without cougar predation. Donkeys were primarily diurnal at wetlands with cougar predation, thereby avoiding cougars. However, donkeys were active throughout the day and night at sites without predation. Donkeys were ~87% less active (measured as hours of activity a day) at wetlands with predation (p < 0.0001). Sites with predation had reduced donkey disturbance and herbivory, including ~46% fewer access trails, 43% less trampled bare ground and 192% more canopy cover (PERMANOVA, R2  = 0.22, p = 0.0003). Our study is the first to reveal a trophic cascade involving cougars, feral equids and vegetation. Cougar predation appears to rewire an ancient food web, with diverse implications for modern ecosystems. Our results suggest that protecting apex predators could have important implications for the ecological effects of introduced megafauna.

The paradoxical extinction of the most charismatic animals.

A widespread opinion is that conservation efforts disproportionately benefit charismatic species. However, this doesn't mean that they are not threatened, and which species are "charismatic" remains unclear. Here, we identify the 10 most charismatic animals and show that they are at high risk of imminent extinction in the wild. We also find that the public ignores these animals' predicament and we suggest it could be due to the observed biased perception of their abundance, based more on their profusion in our culture than on their natural populations. We hypothesize that this biased perception impairs conservation efforts because people are unaware that the animals they cherish face imminent extinction and do not perceive their urgent need for conservation. By freely using the image of rare and threatened species in their product marketing, many companies may participate in creating this biased perception, with unintended detrimental effects on conservation efforts, which should be compensated by channeling part of the associated profits to conservation. According to our hypothesis, this biased perception would be likely to last as long as the massive cultural and commercial presence of charismatic species is not accompanied by adequate information campaigns about the imminent threats they face.

Carnivore conservation needs evidence-based livestock protection.

Carnivore predation on livestock often leads people to retaliate. Persecution by humans has contributed strongly to global endangerment of carnivores. Preventing livestock losses would help to achieve three goals common to many human societies: preserve nature, protect animal welfare, and safeguard human livelihoods. Between 2016 and 2018, four independent reviews evaluated >40 years of research on lethal and nonlethal interventions for reducing predation on livestock. From 114 studies, we find a striking conclusion: scarce quantitative comparisons of interventions and scarce comparisons against experimental controls preclude strong inference about the effectiveness of methods. For wise investment of public resources in protecting livestock and carnivores, evidence of effectiveness should be a prerequisite to policy making or large-scale funding of any method or, at a minimum, should be measured during implementation. An appropriate evidence base is needed, and we recommend a coalition of scientists and managers be formed to establish and encourage use of consistent standards in future experimental evaluations.

Guiding principles for rewilding.

There has been much recent interest in the concept of rewilding as a tool for nature conservation, but also confusion over the idea, which has limited its utility. We developed a unifying definition and 10 guiding principles for rewilding through a survey of 59 rewilding experts, a summary of key organizations' rewilding visions, and workshops involving over 100 participants from around the world. The guiding principles convey that rewilding exits on a continuum of scale, connectivity, and level of human influence and aims to restore ecosystem structure and functions to achieve a self-sustaining autonomous nature. These principles clarify the concept of rewilding and improve its effectiveness as a tool to achieve global conservation targets, including those of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration and post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Finally, we suggest differences in rewilding perspectives lie largely in the extent to which it is seen as achievable and in specific interventions. An understanding of the context of rewilding projects is the key to success, and careful site-specific interpretations will help achieve the aims of rewilding.

Recientemente ha habido mucho interés por el concepto de retorno a la vida silvestre como herramienta para la conservación de la naturaleza, pero también ha habido confusión por la idea que ha limitado su utilidad. Desarrollamos una definición unificadora y diez principios básicos para el retorno a la vida silvestre por medio de encuestas a 59 expertos en retorno a la vida silvestre, un resumen de las visiones de las organizaciones más importantes para el retorno a la vida silvestre y talleres que involucraron a más de 100 participantes de todo el mundo. Los principios básicos transmiten que el retorno a la vida silvestre existe en un continuo de escala, conectividad y nivel de influencia humana y que su objetivo es restaurar la estructura y las funciones del ecosistema para lograr una naturaleza autónoma autosustentable. Estos principios aclaran el concepto del retorno a la vida silvestre e incrementan su efectividad como herramienta para lograr los objetivos mundiales de conservación, incluyendo aquellos de la Década de la ONU para la Restauración de Ecosistemas y el Marco de Trabajo de la Biodiversidad Global post 2020. Finalmente, sugerimos que las diferencias en las perspectivas del retorno a la vida silvestre yacen principalmente en el grado al que es visto como factible y en intervenciones específicas. Un entendimiento del contexto de los proyectos de retorno a la vida silvestre es importante para el éxito, y las interpretaciones específicas de sitio ayudarán a lograr las metas del retorno a la vida silvestre. Principios Básicos para el Retorno a la Vida Silvestre.

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co-benefits of preserving forests in the western United States.

Forest carbon sequestration via forest preservation can be a viable climate change mitigation strategy. Here, we identify forests in the western conterminous United States with high potential carbon sequestration and low vulnerability to future drought and fire, as simulated using the Community Land Model and two high carbon emission scenario (RCP 8.5) climate models. High-productivity, low-vulnerability forests have the potential to sequester up to 5,450 Tg CO2 equivalent (1,485 Tg C) by 2099, which is up to 20% of the global mitigation potential previously identified for all temperate and boreal forests, or up to ~6 yr of current regional fossil fuel emissions. Additionally, these forests currently have high above- and belowground carbon density, high tree species richness, and a high proportion of critical habitat for endangered vertebrate species, indicating a strong potential to support biodiversity into the future and promote ecosystem resilience to climate change. We stress that some forest lands have low carbon sequestration potential but high biodiversity, underscoring the need to consider multiple criteria when designing a land preservation portfolio. Our work demonstrates how process models and ecological criteria can be used to prioritize landscape preservation for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving biodiversity in a rapidly changing climate.

Global reforestation and biodiversity conservation.

The loss of forest is a leading cause of species extinction, and reforestation is 1 of 2 established interventions for reversing this loss. However, the role of reforestation for biodiversity conservation remains debated, and lacking is an assessment of the potential contribution that reforestation could make to biodiversity conservation globally. We conducted a spatial analysis of overlap between 1,550 forest-obligate threatened species' ranges and land that could be reforested after accounting for socioeconomic and ecological constraints. Reforestation on at least 43% (∼369 million ha) of reforestable area was predicted to potentially benefit threatened vertebrates. This is approximately 15% of the total area where threatened vertebrates occur. The greatest opportunities for conserving threatened vertebrate species are in the tropics, particularly Brazil and Indonesia. Although reforestation is not a substitute for forest conservation, and most of the area containing threatened vertebrates remains forested, our results highlight the need for global conservation strategies to recognize the potentially significant contribution that reforestation could make to biodiversity conservation. If implemented, reforestation of ∼369 million ha would also contribute substantially to climate-change mitigation, offering a way to achieve multiple sustainability commitments at once. Countries must now work to overcome key barriers (e.g., unclear revenue streams, high transaction costs) to investment in reforestation.

Reforestación Mundial y Conservación de la Biodiversidad Resumen La pérdida de los bosques es una de las causas principales de la extinción de especies y la reforestación es una de las dos intervenciones establecidas para revertir esta pérdida. Sin embargo, el papel de la reforestación en la conservación de la biodiversidad todavía se debate, además de que hay una falta de evaluación de la contribución potencial que podría dar la reforestación a la conservación mundial de la biodiversidad. Realizamos un análisis espacial del traslape de la distribución de 1,550 especies obligadas de bosque que se encuentran amenazadas y el suelo que podría utilizarse para reforestar después de considerar las restricciones socioeconómicas y ecológicas. El análisis predijo que la reforestación en al menos el 43% (∼ 369 millones de ha) del área que se puede reforestar beneficiará potencialmente a los vertebrados amenazados. Esto es aproximadamente el 15% del área total en donde están presentes los vertebrados amenazados. Las oportunidades más grandes para conservar a las especies amenazadas de vertebrados se encuentran en los trópicos, particularmente en Brasil y en Indonesia. Aunque la reforestación no es un sustituto para la conservación de los bosques, y aunque la mayoría del área que contiene vertebrados amenazados todavía tiene flora original, nuestros resultados resaltan la necesidad de tener estrategias mundiales de conservación para reconocer la contribución potencialmente significativa que podría dar la reforestación a la conservación de la biodiversidad. Si se implementa, la reforestación de ∼369 millones de ha también contribuiría significativamente a la mitigación del cambio climático, ofreciendo así una manera de cumplir varios compromisos de sustentabilidad a la vez. Los países ahora deben trabajar para sobreponerse a las barreras importantes (p. ej.: flujos inciertos de ingresos, costos elevados de las transacciones) que enfrentan las inversiones para la reforestación.

Extinction risk is most acute for the world's largest and smallest vertebrates.

Extinction risk in vertebrates has been linked to large body size, but this putative relationship has only been explored for select taxa, with variable results. Using a newly assembled and taxonomically expansive database, we analyzed the relationships between extinction risk and body mass (27,647 species) and between extinction risk and range size (21,294 species) for vertebrates across six main classes. We found that the probability of being threatened was positively and significantly related to body mass for birds, cartilaginous fishes, and mammals. Bimodal relationships were evident for amphibians, reptiles, and bony fishes. Most importantly, a bimodal relationship was found across all vertebrates such that extinction risk changes around a body mass breakpoint of 0.035 kg, indicating that the lightest and heaviest vertebrates have elevated extinction risk. We also found range size to be an important predictor of the probability of being threatened, with strong negative relationships across nearly all taxa. A review of the drivers of extinction risk revealed that the heaviest vertebrates are most threatened by direct killing by humans. By contrast, the lightest vertebrates are most threatened by habitat loss and modification stemming especially from pollution, agricultural cropping, and logging. Our results offer insight into halting the ongoing wave of vertebrate extinctions by revealing the vulnerability of large and small taxa, and identifying size-specific threats. Moreover, they indicate that, without intervention, anthropogenic activities will soon precipitate a double truncation of the size distribution of the world's vertebrates, fundamentally reordering the structure of life on our planet.

Eating plants and planting forests for the climate.

The IPCC's Special Report on Climate Change and Land addresses the closely coupled relationship between land use and climate change. The report notes the climate change mitigation potential of dietary shifts and afforestation. Here, we briefly discuss how decreases in ruminant meat consumption associated with dietary shifts have the potential to free up area for forests, allowing for greater CO2 sequestration and benefiting biodiversity, while simultaneously reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Habitat use of sympatric prey suggests divergent anti-predator responses to recolonizing gray wolves.

The non-consumptive effects of predators on prey are now widely recognized, but the need remains for studies identifying the factors that determine how particular prey species respond behaviorally when threatened with predation. We took advantage of ongoing gray wolf (Canis lupus) recolonization in eastern Washington, USA, to contrast habitat use of two sympatric prey species-mule (Odocoileus hemionus) and white-tailed (O. virginianus) deer-at sites with and without established wolf packs. Under the hypothesis that the nature and scale of responses by these ungulates to wolf predation risk depend on their divergent flight tactics (i.e., modes of fleeing from an approaching predator), we predicted that (1) mule deer would respond to wolves with coarse-scale spatial shifts to rugged terrain favoring their stotting tactic; (2) white-tailed deer would manage wolf risk with fine-scale shifts toward gentle terrain facilitating their galloping tactic within their current home range. Resource selection functions based on 61 mule deer and 59 white-tailed deer equipped with GPS radio-collars from 2013 to 2016 revealed that habitat use for each species was altered by wolf presence, but in divergent ways that supported our predictions. Our findings add to a growing literature highlighting flight behavior as a viable predictor of prey responses to predation risk across multiple ecosystem types. Consequently, they suggest that predators could initiate multiple indirect non-consumptive effects in the same ecosystem that are transmitted by divergent responses of sympatric prey with different flight tactics.

The impact of large terrestrial carnivores on Pleistocene ecosystems.

Large mammalian terrestrial herbivores, such as elephants, have dramatic effects on the ecosystems they inhabit and at high population densities their environmental impacts can be devastating. Pleistocene terrestrial ecosystems included a much greater diversity of megaherbivores (e.g., mammoths, mastodons, giant ground sloths) and thus a greater potential for widespread habitat degradation if population sizes were not limited. Nevertheless, based on modern observations, it is generally believed that populations of megaherbivores (>800 kg) are largely immune to the effects of predation and this perception has been extended into the Pleistocene. However, as shown here, the species richness of big carnivores was greater in the Pleistocene and many of them were significantly larger than their modern counterparts. Fossil evidence suggests that interspecific competition among carnivores was relatively intense and reveals that some individuals specialized in consuming megaherbivores. To estimate the potential impact of Pleistocene large carnivores, we use both historic and modern data on predator-prey body mass relationships to predict size ranges of their typical and maximum prey when hunting as individuals and in groups. These prey size ranges are then compared with estimates of juvenile and subadult proboscidean body sizes derived from extant elephant growth data. Young proboscideans at their most vulnerable age fall within the predicted prey size ranges of many of the Pleistocene carnivores. Predation on juveniles can have a greater impact on megaherbivores because of their long interbirth intervals, and consequently, we argue that Pleistocene carnivores had the capacity to, and likely did, limit megaherbivore population sizes.

Managing conflict between large carnivores and livestock.

Large carnivores are persecuted globally because they threaten human industries and livelihoods. How this conflict is managed has consequences for the conservation of large carnivores and biodiversity more broadly. Mitigating human-predator conflict should be evidence-based and accommodate people's values while protecting carnivores. Despite much research into human and large-carnivore coexistence strategies, there have been few attempts to document the success of conflict-mitigation strategies on a global scale. We conducted a meta-analysis of global research on conflict mitigation related to large carnivores and humans. We focused on conflicts that arise from the threat large carnivores pose to livestock. We first used structured and unstructured searching to identify replicated studies that used before-after or control-impact design to measure change in livestock loss as a result of implementing a management intervention. We then extracted relevant data from these studies to calculate an overall effect size for each intervention type. Research effort and focus varied among continents and aligned with the histories and cultures that shaped livestock production and attitudes toward carnivores. Livestock guardian animals most effectively reduced livestock losses. Lethal control was the second most effective control, although its success varied the most, and guardian animals and lethal control did not differ significantly. Financial incentives have promoted tolerance of large carnivores in some settings and reduced retaliatory killings. We suggest coexistence strategies be location-specific, incorporate cultural values and environmental conditions, and be designed such that return on financial investment can be evaluated. Improved monitoring of mitigation measures is urgently required to promote effective evidence-based policy.

Shrub encroachment is linked to extirpation of an apex predator.

The abundance of shrubs has increased throughout Earth's arid lands. This 'shrub encroachment' has been linked to livestock grazing, fire-suppression and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations facilitating shrub recruitment. Apex predators initiate trophic cascades which can influence the abundance of many species across multiple trophic levels within ecosystems. Extirpation of apex predators is linked inextricably to pastoralism, but has not been considered as a factor contributing to shrub encroachment. Here, we ask if trophic cascades triggered by the extirpation of Australia's largest terrestrial predator, the dingo (Canis dingo), could be a driver of shrub encroachment in the Strzelecki Desert, Australia. We use aerial photographs spanning a 51-year period to compare shrub cover between areas where dingoes are historically rare and common. We then quantify contemporary patterns of shrub, shrub seedling and mammal abundances, and use structural equation modelling to compare competing trophic cascade hypotheses to explain how dingoes could influence shrub recruitment. Finally, we track the fate of seedlings of an encroaching shrub, hopbush (Dodonaea viscosa angustissima), during a period optimal for seedling recruitment, and quantify removal rates of hopbush seeds by rodents from enriched seed patches. Shrub cover was 26-48% greater in areas where dingoes were rare than common. Our structural equation modelling supported the hypothesis that dingo removal facilitates shrub encroachment by triggering a four level trophic cascade. According to this model, increased mesopredator abundance in the absence of dingoes results in suppressed abundance of consumers of shrub seeds and seedlings, rodents and rabbits respectively. In turn, suppressed abundances of rodents and rabbits in the absence of dingoes relaxed a recruitment bottleneck for shrubs. The results of our SEM were supported by results showing that rates of hopbush seedling survival and seed removal were 1·7 times greater and 2·1 times lower in areas where dingoes were rare than common. Our study provides evidence linking the suppression of an apex predator to the historic encroachment of shrubs. We contend that trophic cascades induced by apex predator extirpation may be an overlooked driver of shrub encroachment.

Recovering aspen follow changing elk dynamics in Yellowstone: evidence of a trophic cascade?

To investigate the extent and causes of recent quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) recruitment in northern Yellowstone National Park, we measured browsing intensity and height of young aspen in 87 randomly selected aspen stands in 2012, and compared our results to similar data collected in 1997-1998. We also examined the relationship between aspen recovery and the distribution of Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) and bison (Bison bison) on the Yellowstone northern ungulate winter range, using ungulate fecal pile densities and annual elk count data. In 1998, 90% of young aspen were browsed and none were taller-than 200 cm, the height at which aspen begin to escape from elk browsing. In 2012, only 37% in the east and 63% in the west portions of the winter range were browsed, and 65% of stands in the east had young aspen taller than 200 cm. Heights of young aspen were inversely related to browsing intensity, with the least browsing and greatest heights in the eastern portion of the range, corresponding with recent changes in elk density and distribution. In contrast with historical elk distribution (1930s-1990s), the greatest densities of elk recently (2006-2012) have been north of the park boundary (approximately 5 elk/km2), and in the western part of the range (2-4 elk/km2), with relatively few elk in the eastern portion of the range (<2 elk/km2), even in mild winters. This redistribution of elk and decrease in density inside the park, and overall reduction in elk numbers, explain why many aspen stands have begun to recover. Increased predation pressure following the reintroduction of gray wolves (Canis lupius) in 1995-1996 played a role in these changing elk population dynamics, interacting with other influences including increased predation by bears (Ursus spp.), competition with an expanding bison population, and shifting patterns of human land use and hunting outside the park. The resulting new aspen recruitment is evidence of a landscape-scale trophic cascade in which a resurgent large carnivore community, combined with other ecological changes, has benefited aspen through effects on ungulate prey.