Estimated validity and reliability of on-board diagnostics for older vehicles: comparison with remote sensing observations.

Based on requirements under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, most state vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs have, since 2002, replaced the tailpipe emission testing with the on-board diagnostic (OBD) II testing for 1996 model and newer vehicles. This test relies on the OBD II system to give the pass or fail result, depending on certain conditions that might cause the vehicle to emit pollution 1.5 times higher than the regulated standard. The OBD II system is a computer and sensors installed in the vehicle to monitor the emission control units and signal if there is any malfunction. As a vehicle ages, its engine, pollution control units, and OBD II system deteriorate. Because the OBD II system's durability directly influences the test outcome, it is important to examine the fleetwide trend in the OBD II test results in comparison with an alternative measure of identifying high emitting vehicles. This study investigates whether the validity and reliability of the OBD II test is related to the age of the OBD II system installed in the fleet. Using Atlanta's I/M testing records and remote sensing device (RSD) data collected during 2002-2005, this research establishes the convergent validity and interobserver reliability criteria for the OBD II test based on on-road emissions measured by RSDs. The study results show that older vehicles exhibit significantly lower RSD-OBD II outcome agreement than newer vehicles. This suggests that the validity and reliability of the OBD II test may decline in the older vehicle fleets. Explanations and possible confounding factors for these findings are discussed.

Estimating the effect of vehicle speeds on bicycle and pedestrian safety on the Georgia arterial roadway network.

Cyclists and pedestrians account for a disproportionate amount of the world's 1.3 million road deaths every year. This is a growing problem in the United Sates where bicyclist and pedestrian fatalities have increased steadily since 2009. A large body of research suggests vehicle speeds are a key contributing factor for crashes. However, few studies of bicycle or pedestrian crash probability incorporate detailed vehicle speed data. This study uses probe vehicle speed data to examine the impact of vehicle speeds on bicycle and pedestrian crashes on the state of Georgia's network of major arterial roadways. The analysis examines 7000 road segments throughout the state in 2017. A Negative Binomial model relates annual crash and speed data on each segment. Models using speed percentiles (85th, 50th and 15th) are contrasted with models using speed differences (85th-50th and 50th-15th percentile). A small set of covariates are included: segment length, number of lanes, Average Annual Daily Traffic, and urbanicity. Results indicate that larger differences in high-end speed percentiles are positively associated with bicycle and pedestrian crash frequency on Georgia arterials. Furthermore, the coefficients on the high end of the speed distribution, measured by the difference in 85th and 50th percentile speeds, have greater magnitude and statistical significance than the low end of the distribution. This research shows a negative relationship between speed and crashes may be flawed, as it does not account for the distributions of speed. The findings in this study suggest that planners and engineers should identify areas with large speed distributions, especially at the high vehicle speeds, and work to reduce the fastest speeds on these roadways. To do so, differences in speed percentiles measured using probe vehicle speeds can be used to determine where high risk areas are located.

MOVES-Matrix for high-performance on-road energy and running emission rate modeling applications.

The MOVES model was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) to estimate emissions from on-road mobile sources and nonroad sources in the United States. Coupling high-resolution on-road vehicle activity data with appropriate MOVES emission rates further advances research efforts designed to assess the environmental impacts of transportation design and operation strategies. However, the complicated MOVES interface and slow performance makes it difficult to assess large, regional scale transportation networks and to undertake analyses of large-scale systems that are dynamic in nature. The MOVES-Matrix system develops an initial Large Matrix of MOVES outputs by running MOVES 146,853 times on the PACE high performance computing cluster to generate more than 90 billion emission rates to populate the matrix for a single area with one fuel regime and one inspection and maintenance program. A total of 117 such Large Matrices would be needed for the entire United States. The MOVES-Matrix system developed can be used to conduct the emissions modeling 200-times faster than using MOVES. The hypothetical case study shows that MOVES-Matrix is able to generate the exact same emission results as the MOVES model to ensure the validity for regulatory analysis. The resulting matrix allows users to link emission rates to big data projects and to evaluate changes in emissions for dynamic transportation systems in near-real-time. MOVES-Matrix does not currently estimate emissions from starts, hoteling or evaporative emissions, and the research team is working on MOVES-Matrix version 2 that supports incorporating off-network modeling.Implications: MOVES-Matrix should be of interest to a broad readership including those interested in vehicle emission modeling, near-road air quality modeling, transportation conformity analysis. The paper should also interest engineers who are involved in transportation regulatory and conformity analysis, state implementation plan, and who are seeking an efficient way of conducting regulatory emission modeling and air quality analysis in the United States.

Can post encroachment time substitute intersection characteristics in crash prediction models?

INTRODUCTION: Transportation safety analyses have traditionally relied on crash data. The limitations of these crash data in terms of timeliness and efficiency are well understood and many studies have explored the feasibility of using alternative surrogate measures for evaluation of road safety. Surrogate safety measures have the potential to estimate crash frequency, while requiring reduced data collection efforts relative to crash data based measures. Traditional crash prediction models use factors such as traffic volume, sight distance, and grade to make risk and exposure estimates that are combined with observed crashes, generally using an Empirical Bayes method, to obtain a final crash estimate. Many surrogate measures have the notable advantage of not directly requiring historical crash data from a site to estimate safety. Post Encroachment Time (PET) is one such measure and represents the time difference between a vehicle leaving the area of encroachment and a conflicting vehicle entering the same area. The exact relationship between surrogate measures, such as PET, and crashes in an ongoing research area. METHOD: This paper studies the use of PET to estimate crashes between left-turning vehicles and opposing through vehicles for its ability to predict opposing left-turn crashes. By definition, a PET value of 0 implies the occurrence of a crash and the closer the value of PET is to 0, the higher the conflict risk. RESULTS: This study shows that a model combining PET and traffic volume characteristic (AADT or conflicting volume) has better predictive power than PET alone. Further, it was found that PET may be capturing the impact of certain other intersection characteristics on safety as inclusion of other intersection characteristics such as sight distance, grade, and other parameters result in only marginal impacts on predictive capacity that do not justify the increased model complexity.

MOVES-Matrix and distributed computing for microscale line source dispersion analysis.

MOVES and AERMOD are the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended models for use in project-level transportation conformity and hot-spot analysis. However, the structure and algorithms involved in running MOVES make analyses cumbersome and time-consuming. Likewise, the modeling setup process, including extensive data requirements and required input formats, in AERMOD lead to a high potential for analysis error in dispersion modeling. This study presents a distributed computing method for line source dispersion modeling that integrates MOVES-Matrix, a high-performance emission modeling tool, with the microscale dispersion models CALINE4 and AERMOD. MOVES-Matrix was prepared by iteratively running MOVES across all possible iterations of vehicle source-type, fuel, operating conditions, and environmental parameters to create a huge multi-dimensional emission rate lookup matrix. AERMOD and CALINE4 are connected with MOVES-Matrix in a distributed computing cluster using a series of Python scripts. This streamlined system built on MOVES-Matrix generates exactly the same emission rates and concentration results as using MOVES with AERMOD and CALINE4, but the approach is more than 200 times faster than using the MOVES graphical user interface. Because AERMOD requires detailed meteorological input, which is difficult to obtain, this study also recommends using CALINE4 as a screening tool for identifying the potential area that may exceed air quality standards before using AERMOD (and identifying areas that are exceedingly unlikely to exceed air quality standards). CALINE4 worst case method yields consistently higher concentration results than AERMOD for all comparisons in this paper, as expected given the nature of the meteorological data employed. IMPLICATIONS: The paper demonstrates a distributed computing method for line source dispersion modeling that integrates MOVES-Matrix with the CALINE4 and AERMOD. This streamlined system generates exactly the same emission rates and concentration results as traditional way to use MOVES with AERMOD and CALINE4, which are regulatory models approved by the U.S. EPA for conformity analysis, but the approach is more than 200 times faster than implementing the MOVES model. We highlighted the potentially significant benefit of using CALINE4 as screening tool for identifying potential area that may exceeds air quality standards before using AERMOD, which requires much more meteorology input than CALINE4.

Understanding the emission impacts of high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) to high-occupancy toll (HOT) lane conversions: Experience from Atlanta, Georgia.

Converting a congested high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane into a high-occupancy toll (HOT) lane is a viable option for improving travel time reliability for carpools and buses that use the managed lane. However, the emission impacts of HOV-to-HOT conversions are not well understood. The lack of emission impact quantification for HOT conversions creates a policy challenge for agencies making transportation funding choices. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the case study of before-and-after changes in vehicle emissions for the Atlanta, Georgia, I-85 HOV/HOT lane conversion project, implemented in October 2011. The analyses employed the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) for project-level analysis with monitored changes in vehicle activity data collected by Georgia Tech researchers for the Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT). During the quarterly field data collection from 2010 to 2012, more than 1.5 million license plates were observed and matched to vehicle class and age information using the vehicle registration database. The study also utilized the 20-sec, lane-specific traffic operations data from the Georgia NaviGAtor intelligent transportation system, as well as a direct feed of HOT lane usage data from the State Road and Tollway Authority (SRTA) managed lane system. As such, the analyses in this paper simultaneously assessed the impacts associated with changes in traffic volumes, on-road operating conditions, and fleet composition before and after the conversion. Both greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants were examined. IMPLICATIONS: A straight before-after analysis showed about 5% decrease in air pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2). However, when the before-after calendar year of analysis was held constant (to account for the effect of 1 yr of fleet turnover), mass emissions at the analysis site during peak hours increased by as much as 17%, with little change in CO2. Further investigation revealed that a large percentage decrease in criteria pollutants in the straight before-after analysis was associated with a single calendar year change in MOVES. Hence, the Atlanta, Georgia, results suggest that an HOV-to-HOT conversion project may have increased mass emissions on the corridor. The results also showcase the importance of obtaining on-road data for emission impact assessment of HOV-to-HOT conversion projects.

Evaluating vehicle inspection/maintenance programs using on-road emissions data. The Atlanta Reference Method.

On-road remote sensing data is an increasingly popular source of evaluation information for vehicle inspection/maintenance (I/M) programs. This article conducts one such remote sensing data evaluation for the Atlanta, Georgia, I/M program. The reference method involves comparing emissions differences in I/M and non-I/M fleet vehicles with those predicted by a regulatory computer model. Assuming that on-road emissions differences represent observed effectiveness and model-predicted emissions differences represent effectiveness goals, the Atlanta enhanced I/M program appears to be achieving 83% of its targeted emissions reductions. The method compares favorably with other remote sensing evaluation methods in its ability to be applied over time and its relatively small sample size requirement. The chief limitation to the approach is its reliance on a representative non-I/M fleet, which may differ in characteristics for which controls are difficult to locate. Such potential confounding factors include discrepancies in maintenance trends, socioeconomic conditions, and vehicle quality.

Inspection/maintenance program evaluation: replicating the Denver Step Method for an Atlanta fleet.

The research presented in this paper employs the Step Method of Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) program evaluation to estimate the emissions reduction for an Atlanta I/M program. Stedman et al. (Stedman, D. H.; Bishop, G. A.; Aldrete, P.; Slott, R. S. Environ. Sci. Technol. 1997, 31, 927-931) introduced the Step Method of evaluation when they presented the results of a 1995 Denver I/M program evaluation. The research presented here replicates the original Denver Step Method analysis for a 1997 Atlanta I/M program. This evaluation was conducted separately for the nine outlying Atlanta counties and the four counties that are closest to the center of the city. The results of the analysis are similar to those found by Stedman et al. in Denver. While the Denver carbon monoxide (CO) weighted program benefit was 6.9%, the Atlanta area CO weighted program benefit is found to be 11.5% and 4.9% for the nine-county and four-county Atlanta areas, respectively. We conclude that the 1997 I/M program change in Atlanta yielded a noteworthy and observable change in fleet emissions.