Variation in fruit and seed dimensions is better explained by dispersal system than by leaf size in a tropical rainforest.

PREMISE: Variation in fruit and seed traits could originate from selection pressures exerted by frugivores or other ecological factors (adaptive hypotheses) and developmental constraints (by-product hypotheses) or chance. METHODS: We evaluated fruit and leaf traits for nearly 850 plant species from a rainforest in Tinigua Park, Colombia. Through a series of linear regressions controlling for the phylogenetic signal of the traits (minimum N = 542), we tested (1) whether the allometry between seed width and length depends on seed dispersal system (Mazer and Wheelwright's adaptive hypothesis of allometry for species dispersed in the guts of animals = endozoochory) and (2) whether fruit length is associated with leaf length (i.e., Herrera's by-product hypothesis derived from the assumption that both organs develop from homologous structures). RESULTS: We found a strong negative allometric association between seed width and length for seeds of endozoochorous species, as expected; but also, for anemochorous species. We found a positive relationship between fruit and leaf length, but this relationship was not evident for zoochorous species. Fruit size was highly correlated with seed size. CONCLUSIONS: The allometry between seed length and width varied among dispersal systems, supporting that fruit and seed morphology has been modified by interactions with frugivores and by the possibility to rotate for some wind dispersed species. We found some support for the hypothesis on developmental constraints because fruit and leaf size were positively correlated, but the predictive power of the relationship was low (10-15%).

PREMISA: La variación en los rasgos de frutos y semillas de las plantas podría tener su origen en las presiones de selección ejercidas por los frugívoros u otros factores ecológicos (hipótesis adaptativas), así como en limitaciones del desarrollo (hipótesis de subproductos) o en el azar. MÉTODOS: Nosotros evaluamos rasgos de frutos y hojas en cerca de 850 especies de plantas de un bosque húmedo tropical en el Parque Nacional Natural Tinigua, Colombia. Usando una serie de regresiones lineales que controlan por la señal filogenética de dichos rasgos (mínimo N = 542), nosotros probamos (1) si la alometría entre el ancho y largo de la semilla depende del sistema de dispersión de la semilla (i.e., hipótesis adaptativa de Mazer y Wheelwright; en la que se espera una alometría negativa para especies dispersadas por endozoocoria) y (2) si el largo del fruto está asociado con el largo de la hoja (i.e., la hipótesis del subproducto de Herrera derivada de la suposición de que ambos órganos se desarrollan a partir de estructuras homólogas). RESULTADOS: Nosotros encontramos una fuerte asociación alométrica negativa entre el ancho y el largo de las semillas para las semillas de las especies endozoócoras, como era de esperar; pero también, para las especies anemócoras. Nosotros también hallamos una relación positiva entre el largo del fruto y de la hoja, pero esta relación no fue evidente para las especies endozoócoras. Detectamos que el tamaño del fruto esta altamente correlacionado con el tamaño de la semilla. CONCLUSIONES: La alometría entre el largo y el ancho de la semilla varió entre sistemas de dispersión, lo que sugiere que la morfología de frutos y semillas ha sido moldeada por interacciones con frugívoros en el caso de las semillas endozoócoras y por la posibilidad de rotar para algunas especies dispersadas por el viento. Aunque el poder predictivo de la relación entre el tamaño del fruto y de la hoja fue bajo (10-15%), nosotros encontramos un apoyo moderado a la hipótesis sobre las limitaciones del desarrollo, ya que el tamaño del fruto y de la hoja estaban correlacionados positivamente.

A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.

BACKGROUND: Aedes (Stegomyia)-borne diseases are an expanding global threat, but gaps in surveillance make comprehensive and comparable risk assessments challenging. Geostatistical models combine data from multiple locations and use links with environmental and socioeconomic factors to make predictive risk maps. Here we systematically review past approaches to map risk for different Aedes-borne arboviruses from local to global scales, identifying differences and similarities in the data types, covariates, and modelling approaches used. METHODS: We searched on-line databases for predictive risk mapping studies for dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever with no geographical or date restrictions. We included studies that needed to parameterise or fit their model to real-world epidemiological data and make predictions to new spatial locations of some measure of population-level risk of viral transmission (e.g. incidence, occurrence, suitability, etc.). RESULTS: We found a growing number of arbovirus risk mapping studies across all endemic regions and arboviral diseases, with a total of 176 papers published 2002-2022 with the largest increases shortly following major epidemics. Three dominant use cases emerged: (i) global maps to identify limits of transmission, estimate burden and assess impacts of future global change, (ii) regional models used to predict the spread of major epidemics between countries and (iii) national and sub-national models that use local datasets to better understand transmission dynamics to improve outbreak detection and response. Temperature and rainfall were the most popular choice of covariates (included in 50% and 40% of studies respectively) but variables such as human mobility are increasingly being included. Surprisingly, few studies (22%, 31/144) robustly tested combinations of covariates from different domains (e.g. climatic, sociodemographic, ecological, etc.) and only 49% of studies assessed predictive performance via out-of-sample validation procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Here we show that approaches to map risk for different arboviruses have diversified in response to changing use cases, epidemiology and data availability. We identify key differences in mapping approaches between different arboviral diseases, discuss future research needs and outline specific recommendations for future arbovirus mapping.

Zika virus evolution and spread in the Americas.

Although the recent Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas and its link to birth defects have attracted a great deal of attention, much remains unknown about ZIKV disease epidemiology and ZIKV evolution, in part owing to a lack of genomic data. Here we address this gap in knowledge by using multiple sequencing approaches to generate 110 ZIKV genomes from clinical and mosquito samples from 10 countries and territories, greatly expanding the observed viral genetic diversity from this outbreak. We analysed the timing and patterns of introductions into distinct geographic regions; our phylogenetic evidence suggests rapid expansion of the outbreak in Brazil and multiple introductions of outbreak strains into Puerto Rico, Honduras, Colombia, other Caribbean islands, and the continental United States. We find that ZIKV circulated undetected in multiple regions for many months before the first locally transmitted cases were confirmed, highlighting the importance of surveillance of viral infections. We identify mutations with possible functional implications for ZIKV biology and pathogenesis, as well as those that might be relevant to the effectiveness of diagnostic tests.

Iodine Intake Based on a Survey from a Cohort of Women at Their Third Trimester of Pregnancy from the Bosque County Chile.

Adequate iodine nutrition is fundamental for all humans and is critical during pregnancy and lactation due to iodine forms part of the structure of thyroid hormones (THs) and it is required for THs function. Iodine is a scarce micronutrient that must be obtained from the diet. Sufficient iodine can be found in the nature from seafood and given it is not frequently consumed by Chileans, public health policies state that table salt in Chile must be iodized. Health plans must be monitored to determine if the intake of iodine is being appropriated and the population has not fallen in deficiency or excess. The aim of this work was to evaluate iodine intake in 26 women at the third trimester of pregnancy. Pregnant women are resident from El Bosque a low-income County located in Santiago de Chile. These Chilean pregnant women were recruited by nutritionist at the Centros de Salud familiar (CESFAM). A 24 h dietary recall (24 h-DR) was applied to them to evaluate iodine intake. Samples of urine and blood were taken by health professionals to analyze parameters of thyroid function and to measure urine iodine concentration (UIC). The survey analysis showed that the iodine consumption in these pregnant women derived mainly from salt, bread and milk and not from seafood. The survey analysis indicated that iodine intake was above the requirements for pregnant women. However, the average UIC indicated that iodine intake was adequate, suggesting the need to find a better parameter to determine iodine intake in pregnant women.

Designing effective control of dengue with combined interventions.

Viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, have expanding ranges and seem unabated by current vector control programs. Effective control of these pathogens likely requires integrated approaches. We evaluated dengue management options in an endemic setting that combine novel vector control and vaccination using an agent-based model for Yucatán, Mexico, fit to 37 y of data. Our intervention models are informed by targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) experiments; trial outcomes and World Health Organization (WHO) testing guidance for the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV; and preliminary results for in-development vaccines. We evaluated several implementation options, including varying coverage levels; staggered introductions; and a one-time, large-scale vaccination campaign. We found that CYD-TDV and TIRS interfere: while the combination outperforms either alone, performance is lower than estimated from their separate benefits. The conventional model hypothesized for in-development vaccines, however, performs synergistically with TIRS, amplifying effectiveness well beyond their independent impacts. If the preliminary performance by either of the in-development vaccines is upheld, a one-time, large-scale campaign followed by routine vaccination alongside aggressive new vector control could enable short-term elimination, with nearly all cases avoided for a decade despite continuous dengue reintroductions. If elimination is impracticable due to resource limitations, less ambitious implementations of this combination still produce amplified, longer-lasting effectiveness over single-approach interventions.

Effect of Tight Glycemic Control on Pancreatic Beta Cell Function in Newly Diagnosed Pediatric Type 1 Diabetes: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Near normalization of glucose levels instituted immediately after diagnosis of type 1 diabetes has been postulated to preserve pancreatic beta cell function by reducing glucotoxicity. Previous studies have been hampered by an inability to achieve tight glycemic goals. Objective: To determine the effectiveness of intensive diabetes management to achieve near normalization of glucose levels on preservation of pancreatic beta cell function in youth with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized, double-blind, clinical trial was conducted at 6 centers in the US (randomizations from July 20, 2020, to October 13, 2021; follow-up completed September 15, 2022) and included youths with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes aged 7 to 17 years. Interventions: Random assignment to intensive diabetes management, which included use of an automated insulin delivery system (n = 61), or standard care, which included use of a continuous glucose monitor (n = 52), as part of a factorial design in which participants weighing 30 kg or more also were assigned to receive either oral verapamil or placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was mixed-meal tolerance test-stimulated C-peptide area under the curve (a measure of pancreatic beta cell function) 52 weeks from diagnosis. Results: Among 113 participants (mean [SD] age, 11.8 [2.8] years; 49 females [43%]; mean [SD] time from diagnosis to randomization, 24 [5] days), 108 (96%) completed the trial. The mean C-peptide area under the curve decreased from 0.57 pmol/mL at baseline to 0.45 pmol/mL at 52 weeks in the intensive management group, and from 0.60 to 0.50 pmol/mL in the standard care group (treatment group difference, -0.01 [95% CI, -0.11 to 0.10]; P = .89). The mean time in the target range of 70 to 180 mg/dL, measured with continuous glucose monitoring, at 52 weeks was 78% in the intensive management group vs 64% in the standard care group (adjusted difference, 16% [95% CI, 10% to 22%]). One severe hypoglycemia event and 1 diabetic ketoacidosis event occurred in each group. Conclusions and Relevance: In youths with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes, intensive diabetes management, which included automated insulin delivery, achieved excellent glucose control but did not affect the decline in pancreatic C-peptide secretion at 52 weeks. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04233034.

Effect of Verapamil on Pancreatic Beta Cell Function in Newly Diagnosed Pediatric Type 1 Diabetes: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: In preclinical studies, thioredoxin-interacting protein overexpression induces pancreatic beta cell apoptosis and is involved in glucotoxicity-induced beta cell death. Calcium channel blockers reduce these effects and may be beneficial to beta cell preservation in type 1 diabetes. Objective: To determine the effect of verapamil on pancreatic beta cell function in children and adolescents with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This double-blind, randomized clinical trial including children and adolescents aged 7 to 17 years with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes who weighed 30 kg or greater was conducted at 6 centers in the US (randomized participants between July 20, 2020, and October 13, 2021) and follow-up was completed on September 15, 2022. Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to once-daily oral verapamil (n = 47) or placebo (n = 41) as part of a factorial design in which participants also were assigned to receive either intensive diabetes management or standard diabetes care. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was area under the curve values for C-peptide level (a measure of pancreatic beta cell function) stimulated by a mixed-meal tolerance test at 52 weeks from diagnosis of type 1 diabetes. Results: Among 88 participants (mean age, 12.7 [SD, 2.4] years; 36 were female [41%]; and the mean time from diagnosis to randomization was 24 [SD, 4] days), 83 (94%) completed the trial. In the verapamil group, the mean C-peptide area under the curve was 0.66 pmol/mL at baseline and 0.65 pmol/mL at 52 weeks compared with 0.60 pmol/mL at baseline and 0.44 pmol/mL at 52 weeks in the placebo group (adjusted between-group difference, 0.14 pmol/mL [95% CI, 0.01 to 0.27 pmol/mL]; P = .04). This equates to a 30% higher C-peptide level at 52 weeks with verapamil. The percentage of participants with a 52-week peak C-peptide level of 0.2 pmol/mL or greater was 95% (41 of 43 participants) in the verapamil group vs 71% (27 of 38 participants) in the placebo group. At 52 weeks, hemoglobin A1c was 6.6% in the verapamil group vs 6.9% in the placebo group (adjusted between-group difference, -0.3% [95% CI, -1.0% to 0.4%]). Eight participants (17%) in the verapamil group and 8 participants (20%) in the placebo group had a nonserious adverse event considered to be related to treatment. Conclusions and Relevance: In children and adolescents with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes, verapamil partially preserved stimulated C-peptide secretion at 52 weeks from diagnosis compared with placebo. Further studies are needed to determine the longitudinal durability of C-peptide improvement and the optimal length of therapy. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04233034.

Factors associated with self-medication of antibiotics by caregivers in pediatric patients attending the emergency department: a case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: Antibiotic self-medication is a common practice in pediatric caregivers in low-income countries with limited resources and represents a public health problem. Our study sought to determine what factors are associated with this practice, including differences in knowledge or attitudes of caregivers who attend a pediatric emergency service. METHODS: Case-control study based on surveys of caregivers of pediatric patients brought to the emergency room with clinical symptoms suggestive of acute infection. Cases were defined as those caregivers who reported self-medication of antibiotics for the current illness and controls where those who did not report self-medication. Information was collected through a self-administered questionnaire that inquired about demographic and family characteristics, attitudes and knowledge toward self-medication of antibiotics. Data were compared using logistic regression and are presented with odd ratios and confidence intervals. RESULTS: A total of 728 caregivers, 182 cases and 546 controls were included. We found that higher parental education, both in mothers (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.40-0.79) and fathers (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.43-0.89) was associated with less self-medication. Attitudes such as always requesting antibiotics from their doctors (OR 3.92, 95% CI 1.59-9.66), frequently buying antibiotics without a prescription (OR 23.66, 95% CI 11.76-47.59) and giving advice on antibiotics among family members (OR 2.90, 95% CI 1.75-4.82) resulted in an increased likelihood of self-medication. There was also a higher probability of antibiotic self-medication in older children (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09-1.17), those with a greater number of siblings (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.09-1.43) and in those cases that received antibiotics within the last 3 months (OR 6.27, 95% CI 4.35-9.04). Overall knowledge of risk of antibiotic self-medication was low. CONCLUSIONS: Some patient and family characteristics such as age, number of siblings, recent antibiotic usage and inappropriate attitudes are strongly related to antibiotic self-medication. These findings will inform future interventions to reduce self-medication in children.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on digestive endoscopists: an Ibero-American study.

INTRODUCTION: the COVID-19 pandemic has seriously affected the world population, and has put health personnel in the spotlight as they are tasked with its management. Given their important role in the current health crisis, physicians have been heavily affected in terms of their professional practice, financial conditions and physical and mental health. The objective of this study was to determine the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for Colombian endoscopists and compare the effects on endoscopists from South America and from Spain. METHODS: in June 2021, an electronic survey was sent to 292 endoscopists from Colombia, South America and Spain to determine the impact of the pandemic on their professional practice, economic situation, physical and mental health, and training of the residents under their charge. Participants were recruited via convenience sampling. RESULTS: a reduction in the number of endoscopic procedures was reported by 69.9 % of the respondents, and 72.3 % of endoscopists in Colombia stated that their income had decreased. Regarding the doctor-patient relationship, 43.8 % of the respondents believed it had worsened. In addition, 70.9 % reported having experienced changes in their emotional state, especially those related to feeling sad or depressed, and 56.5 % reported that the pandemic had negatively affected the training of residents. Finally, 24.7 % of endoscopists tested positive for COVID-19, and 19.2 % reported the death of a family member due to COVID-19. CONCLUSION: the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the professional practice, financial situation and physical and mental health of Ibero-American endoscopists. These problems must be identified in a timely manner to develop and implement strategies aimed to prevent their occurrence.

Gel and thermoluminescence dosimetry for dose verifications of a real anatomy simulated prostate conformal radiation treatment in the presence of metallic femoral prosthesis.

This study aims to verify the dose delivery of prostate radiotherapy treatments in an adult pelvic phantom with two metallic hip and femur prosthesis using a four-field box technique. The prostate planned target volume (PTV) tridimensional (3D) dose distribution was evaluated using gel dosimetry, and thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD) were used for point-dose measurements outside it. Both results were compared to the treatment planning system (TPS) dose calculation without using heterogeneity corrections to evaluate the influence of the metal in the dose distribution. MAGIC-f gel dosimeter (Methacrylic and Ascorbic acid in Gelatin Initiated by Copper with Formaldehyde) associated with magnetic resonance imaging was used. TLD were positioned at several points at the bone metal interface and the sacrum region. The comparison of the gel measured and the TPS calculated dose distributions were done using gamma analysis (3%/3 mm), and a pass rate of 93% was achieved. The TLD dose values at the bone-metal interface showed variations from the planned dose. However, at the sacrum region, where the beams did not intercept the prosthesis, there was a good agreement between TPS planning and TLD measurements. Our results show how the combination of 3D dosimetry and measurements at specific points in the phantom allowed a comprehensive view of the dose distribution and identified that care must also be paid to regions outside the PTV.

The evolution of polymorphism in the warning coloration of the Amazonian poison frog Adelphobates galactonotus.

While intraspecific variation in aposematic signals can be selected for by different predatory responses, their evolution is also contingent on other processes shaping genetic variation. We evaluate the relative contributions of selection, geographic isolation, and random genetic drift to the evolution of aposematic color polymorphism in the poison frog Adelphobates galactonotus, distributed throughout eastern Brazilian Amazonia. Dorsal coloration was measured for 111 individuals and genetic data were obtained from 220 individuals at two mitochondrial genes (mtDNA) and 7963 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs). Four color categories were described (brown, blue, yellow, orange) and our models of frog and bird visual systems indicated that each color was distinguishable for these taxa. Using outlier and correlative analyses we found no compelling genetic evidence for color being under divergent selection. A time-calibrated mtDNA tree suggests that the present distribution of dorsal coloration resulted from processes occurring during the Pleistocene. Separate phylogenies based on SNPs and mtDNA resolved the same well supported clades, each containing different colored populations. Ancestral character state analysis provided some evidence for evolutionary transitions in color type. Genetic structure was more strongly associated with geographic features, than color category, suggesting that the distribution of color is explained by localized processes. Evidence for geographic isolation together with estimates of low effective population size implicates drift as playing a key role in color diversification. Our results highlight the relevance of considering the neutral processes involved with the evolution of traits with important fitness consequences.

Role of modelling in COVID-19 policy development.

Models have played an important role in policy development to address the COVID-19 outbreak from its emergence in China to the current global pandemic. Early projections of international spread influenced travel restrictions and border closures. Model projections based on the virus's infectiousness demonstrated its pandemic potential, which guided the global response to and prepared countries for increases in hospitalisations and deaths. Tracking the impact of distancing and movement policies and behaviour changes has been critical in evaluating these decisions. Models have provided insights into the epidemiological differences between higher and lower income countries, as well as vulnerable population groups within countries to help design fit-for-purpose policies. Economic evaluation and policies have combined epidemic models and traditional economic models to address the economic consequences of COVID-19, which have informed policy calls for easing restrictions. Social contact and mobility models have allowed evaluation of the pathways to safely relax mobility restrictions and distancing measures. Finally, models can consider future end-game scenarios, including how suppression can be achieved and the impact of different vaccination strategies.

Modelling insights into the COVID-19 pandemic.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a newly emerged infectious disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) that was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on 11th March, 2020. Response to this ongoing pandemic requires extensive collaboration across the scientific community in an attempt to contain its impact and limit further transmission. Mathematical modelling has been at the forefront of these response efforts by: (1) providing initial estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 reproduction rate, R0 (of approximately 2-3); (2) updating these estimates following the implementation of various interventions (with significantly reduced, often sub-critical, transmission rates); (3) assessing the potential for global spread before significant case numbers had been reported internationally; and (4) quantifying the expected disease severity and burden of COVID-19, indicating that the likely true infection rate is often orders of magnitude greater than estimates based on confirmed case counts alone. In this review, we highlight the critical role played by mathematical modelling to understand COVID-19 thus far, the challenges posed by data availability and uncertainty, and the continuing utility of modelling-based approaches to guide decision making and inform the public health response. †Unless otherwise stated, all bracketed error margins correspond to the 95% credible interval (CrI) for reported estimates.

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.

We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.

The decline of dengue in the Americas in 2017: discussion of multiple hypotheses.

OBJECTIVE: Since the 1980s, dengue incidence has increased 30-fold. However, in 2017, there was a noticeable reduction in reported dengue incidence cases within the Americas, including severe and fatal cases. Understanding the mechanism underlying dengue's incidence and decline in the Americas is vital for public health planning. We aimed to provide plausible explanations for the decline in 2017. METHODS: An expert panel of representatives from scientific and academic institutions, Ministry of Health officials from Latin America and PAHO/WHO staff met in October 2017 to propose hypotheses. The meeting employed six moderated plenary discussions in which participants reviewed epidemiological evidence, suggested explanatory hypotheses, offered their expert opinions on each and developed a consensus. RESULTS: The expert group established that in 2017, there was a generalised decreased incidence, severity and number of deaths due to dengue in the Americas, accompanied by a reduction in reported cases of both Zika and chikungunya virus infections, with no change in distribution among age groups affected. This decline was determined to be unlikely due to changes in epidemiological surveillance systems, as similar designs of surveillance systems exist across the region. Although sudden surveillance disruption is possible at a country or regional level, it is unlikely to occur in all countries simultaneously. Retrospective modelling with epidemiological, immunological and entomological information is needed. Host or immunological factors may have influenced the decline in dengue cases at the population level through immunity; however, herd protection requires additional evidence. Uncertainty remains regarding the effect on the outcome of sequential infections of different dengue virus (DENV) types and Zika virus (ZIKV), and vice versa. Future studies were recommended that examine the epidemiological effect of prior DENV infection on Zika incidence and severity, the epidemiological effect of prior Zika virus infection on dengue incidence and severity, immune correlates based on new-generation ELISA assays, and impact of prior DENV/other arbovirus infection on ZIKV immune response in relation to number of infections and the duration of antibodies in relation to interval of protection. Follow-up studies should also investigate whether increased vector control intensification activities contributed to the decline in transmission of one or more of these arboviruses. Additionally, proposed studies should focus on the potential role of vector competence when simultaneously exposed to various arboviruses, and on entomological surveillance and its impact on circulating vector species, with a goal of applying specific measures that mitigate seasonal occurrence or outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Multifactorial events may have accounted for the decline in dengue seen in 2017. Differing elements might explain the reduction in dengue including elements of immunity, increased vector control, and even vector and\or viruses changes or adaptations. Most of the results of this expert consensus group meeting are hypothetical and based on limited evidence. Further studies are needed.

OBJECTIF: Depuis les années 1980, l'incidence de la dengue a été multipliée par 30. Cependant, en 2017, il y a eu une réduction notable du nombre de cas d'incidence de dengue rapportés dans les Amériques. Nous voulions fournir des explications plausibles à la baisse en 2017. MÉTHODES: Un groupe d'experts constitué de représentants d'institutions scientifiques et académiques, d'officiels des Ministères de la Santé d'Amérique Latine et de membres du personnel de l'OPS/OMS s'est réuni en octobre 2017 pour proposer et évaluer des hypothèses. RÉSULTATS: En 2017, il y a eu une baisse généralisée de l'incidence, de la sévérité et du nombre de décès dus à la dengue dans les Amériques, accompagnée d'une réduction des cas rapportés d'infections par le virus Zika et par le virus du chikungunya, sans modification dans la répartition entre les groupes d'âge affectés. Il a été déterminé que ce déclin était peu probablement dû aux changements dans les systèmes de surveillance épidémiologique, étant donné que des systèmes de surveillance similaires existaient dans toute la région. Bien que des perturbations soudaines dans la surveillance soient possibles au niveau national ou régional, il est peu probable que cela se produise simultanément dans tous les pays. Une modélisation rétrospective avec des informations épidémiologiques, immunologiques et entomologiques est nécessaire. Des facteurs liés à l'hôte ou immunologiques peuvent avoir influencé le déclin des cas de dengue au niveau de la population par le biais de l'immunité; cependant, l'évidence d'une protection conférée par l'effet du troupeau nécessite des données supplémentaires. Une incertitude subsiste quant à l'effet sur le résultat des infections séquentielles de différents types du virus de la dengue (DENV) et du virus Zika (ZIKV), et vice-versa. Les études à venir devraient examiner (1) l'effet épidémiologique d'une infection antérieure par le DENV sur l'incidence et la sévérité du virus Zika, (2) l'effet épidémiologique d'une infection antérieure par le virus Zika sur l'incidence et la sévérité de la dengue, (3) les corrélats immunitaires basés sur des tests ELISA de nouvelle génération, (4) l' impact d'une infection antérieure à DENV/autres arbovirus sur la réponse immunitaire au ZIKV en fonction du nombre d'infections et de la durée des anticorps en fonction de l'intervalle de protection, (5) si des activités d'intensification de la lutte antivectorielle ont contribué à la diminution de la transmission d'un ou plusieurs de ces arbovirus, (6) le rôle potentiel de la compétence vectorielle lorsqu'ils sont exposés simultanément à différents arbovirus, (7) la surveillance entomologique et son impact sur la circulation d'espèces de vecteurs, dans le but d'appliquer des mesures spécifiques qui réduisent l'occurrence saisonnière d'épidémies. CONCLUSIONS: Des événements multifactoriels pourraient expliquer le déclin observé de la dengue en 2017. La plupart des résultats de cette réunion du groupe de consensus d'experts sont hypothétiques, reposent sur des données limitées et requièrent des investigations supplémentaires.

Genomic epidemiology supports multiple introductions and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Colombia was the second most affected country during the American Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic, with over 109,000 reported cases. Despite the scale of the outbreak, limited genomic sequence data were available from Colombia. We sought to sequence additional samples and use genomic epidemiology to describe ZIKV dynamics in Colombia. METHODS: We sequenced ZIKV genomes directly from clinical diagnostic specimens and infected Aedes aegypti samples selected to cover the temporal and geographic breadth of the Colombian outbreak. We performed phylogeographic analysis of these genomes, along with other publicly-available ZIKV genomes from the Americas, to estimate the frequency and timing of ZIKV introductions to Colombia. RESULTS: We attempted PCR amplification on 184 samples; 19 samples amplified sufficiently to perform sequencing. Of these, 8 samples yielded sequences with at least 50% coverage. Our phylogeographic reconstruction indicates two separate introductions of ZIKV to Colombia, one of which was previously unrecognized. We find that ZIKV was first introduced to Colombia in February 2015 (95%CI: Jan 2015 - Apr 2015), corresponding to 5 to 8 months of cryptic ZIKV transmission prior to confirmation in September 2015. Despite the presence of multiple introductions, we find that the majority of Colombian ZIKV diversity descends from a single introduction. We find evidence for movement of ZIKV from Colombia into bordering countries, including Peru, Ecuador, Panama, and Venezuela. CONCLUSIONS: Similarly to genomic epidemiological studies of ZIKV dynamics in other countries, we find that ZIKV circulated cryptically in Colombia. More accurately dating when ZIKV was circulating refines our definition of the population at risk. Additionally, our finding that the majority of ZIKV transmission within Colombia was attributable to transmission between individuals, rather than repeated travel-related importations, indicates that improved detection and control might have succeeded in limiting the scale of the outbreak within Colombia.

Influence of Arthropod and Fruit Abundance on the Dietary Composition of Highland Colombian Woolly Monkeys (Lagothrix lagotricha lugens).

The woolly monkey's (Lagothrix lagotricha) diet consists primarily of fruits, and for some populations fruit availability predicts its frequency in the diet. Woolly monkeys also eat new leaves, flowers, seeds and arthropods, but it is unclear whether arthropods are consumed in proportion to their environmental availability. We tested the hypothesis that arthropod consumption by woolly monkeys depends on availability. We studied a group of woolly monkeys for 10 months in 2013-2014, in Cueva de los Guácharos National Park, Colombia, in order to test the hypothesis that arthropod consumption by woolly monkeys depends on availability. We carried out surveys of plant phenology each month for 10 months to estimate fruit productivity, and every 2 months we also surveyed 3 canopy substrates (leaves, mosses and bromeliads) to quantify variation in arthropod biomass. During this time, we also quantified the diet of a woolly monkey group. The items most consumed were fruits (60%), followed by arthropods (24%), leaves (13%) and miscellaneous other items (3%). Arthropod biomass in the canopy did not vary considerably over the 10 months (0.014-0.037 g/g substrate) but was lower at the end of the second rainy season. A positive correlation was found between availability and entomophagy, but only when arthropods were relatively abundant. We did not find a relationship between arthropod and fruit feeding frequencies. Our results indicate that arthropods are prevalent in the diet of the woolly monkeys due to their abundance in Andean forest canopies.

Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Local mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has been reported in two counties in the contiguous United States (US), prompting the issuance of travel, prevention, and testing guidance across the contiguous US. Large uncertainty, however, surrounds the quantification of the actual risk of ZIKV introduction and autochthonous transmission across different areas of the US. METHODS: We present a framework for the projection of ZIKV autochthonous transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 epidemic using a data-driven stochastic and spatial epidemic model accounting for seasonal, environmental, and detailed population data. The model generates an ensemble of travel-related case counts and simulates their potential to have triggered local transmission at the individual level in the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic. RESULTS: We estimate the risk of ZIKV introduction and local transmission at the county level and at the 0.025° × 0.025° cell level across the contiguous US. We provide a risk measure based on the probability of observing local transmission in a specific location during a ZIKV epidemic modeled after the epidemic observed during the years 2015-2016. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the model allows us to generate statistical estimates of the number of ZIKV introductions leading to local transmission in each location. We find that the risk was spatially heterogeneously distributed and concentrated in a few specific areas that account for less than 1% of the contiguous US population. Locations in Texas and Florida that have actually experienced local ZIKV transmission were among the places at highest risk according to our results. We also provide an analysis of the key determinants for local transmission and identify the key introduction routes and their contributions to ZIKV transmission in the contiguous US. CONCLUSIONS: This framework provides quantitative risk estimates, fully captures the stochasticity of ZIKV introduction events, and is not biased by the under-ascertainment of cases due to asymptomatic cases. It provides general information on key risk determinants and data with potential uses in defining public health recommendations and guidance about ZIKV risk in the US.

Virus and Mycoplasma pneumoniae prevalence in a selected pediatric population with acute asthma exacerbation.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of viral and atypical bacteria Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection in children experiencing asthma exacerbation and compare positive and negative subjects with regard to exacerbation severity, need for hospitalization, and treatment. METHODS: One hundred sixty-nine asthmatic children aged 2-15 years old who were admitted to emergency rooms in Bogota, Colombia for acute asthma exacerbation were interviewed. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were taken for DNA and RNA extraction. M. pneumoniae and virus were detected by PCR using specific primers. RESULTS: The prevalence of M. pneumoniae and viral infection in the study population was 12.4% and 83.7%, respectively. All subjects positive for M. pneumoniae were also positive for viral infection. Rhinovirus was the most frequently detected viral agent. No significant differences in severity of asthma exacerbations or in need for hospitalization between the virus or M. pneumoniae positive and negative groups were observed. A significantly lower percentage of M. pneumoniae positive subjects had used inhaled steroids over the six months prior to asthma exacerbation compared to M. pneumoniae negative subjects (38.1% vs. 68.2%), suggesting that inhaled corticosteroids may have a protective effect against M. pneumoniae infections. CONCLUSIONS: The M. pneumoniae and virus prevalence found in this study were similar to those described in the literature. The 100% co-infection rate observed suggests that viral infection can predispose patients to M. pneumoniae infection, and that this interaction may trigger asthmatic exacerbation. Further studies should be done to confirm the protective effect of inhaled corticosteroids on M. pneumoniae infection in patients with asthma exacerbations.

The epidemiology and transmissibility of Zika virus in Girardot and San Andres island, Colombia, September 2015 to January 2016.

Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) was first detected in Colombia in September 2015. As of April 2016, Colombia had reported over 65,000 cases of Zika virus disease (ZVD). We analysed daily surveillance data of ZVD cases reported to the health authorities of San Andres and Girardot, Colombia, between September 2015 and January 2016. ZVD was laboratory-confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in the serum of acute cases within five days of symptom onset. We use daily incidence data to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) in each population. We identified 928 and 1,936 reported ZVD cases from San Andres and Girardot, respectively. The overall attack rate for reported ZVD was 12.13 cases per 1,000 residents of San Andres and 18.43 cases per 1,000 residents of Girardot. Attack rates were significantly higher in females in both municipalities (p < 0.001). Cases occurred in all age groups with highest rates in 20 to 49 year-olds. The estimated R0 for the Zika outbreak was 1.41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.74) in San Andres and 4.61 (95% CI: 4.11-5.16) in Girardot. Transmission of ZIKV is ongoing in the Americas. The estimated R0 from Colombia supports the observed rapid spread.