The impact of Mendelian sleep and circadian genetic variants in a population setting.

Rare variants in ten genes have been reported to cause Mendelian sleep conditions characterised by extreme sleep duration or timing. These include familial natural short sleep (ADRB1, DEC2/BHLHE41, GRM1 and NPSR1), advanced sleep phase (PER2, PER3, CRY2, CSNK1D and TIMELESS) and delayed sleep phase (CRY1). The association of variants in these genes with extreme sleep conditions were usually based on clinically ascertained families, and their effects when identified in the population are unknown. We aimed to determine the effects of these variants on sleep traits in large population-based cohorts. We performed genetic association analysis of variants previously reported to be causal for Mendelian sleep and circadian conditions. Analyses were performed using 191,929 individuals with data on sleep and whole-exome or genome-sequence data from 4 population-based studies: UK Biobank, FINRISK, Health-2000-2001, and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). We identified sleep disorders from self-report, hospital and primary care data. We estimated sleep duration and timing measures from self-report and accelerometery data. We identified carriers for 10 out of 12 previously reported pathogenic variants for 8 of the 10 genes. They ranged in frequency from 1 individual with the variant in CSNK1D to 1,574 individuals with a reported variant in the PER3 gene in the UK Biobank. No carriers for variants reported in NPSR1 or PER2 were identified. We found no association between variants analyzed and extreme sleep or circadian phenotypes. Using sleep timing as a proxy measure for sleep phase, only PER3 and CRY1 variants demonstrated association with earlier and later sleep timing, respectively; however, the magnitude of effect was smaller than previously reported (sleep midpoint ~7 mins earlier and ~5 mins later, respectively). We also performed burden tests of protein truncating (PTVs) or rare missense variants for the 10 genes. Only PTVs in PER2 and PER3 were associated with a relevant trait (for example, 64 individuals with a PTV in PER2 had an odds ratio of 4.4 for being "definitely a morning person", P = 4x10-8; and had a 57-minute earlier midpoint sleep, P = 5x10-7). Our results indicate that previously reported variants for Mendelian sleep and circadian conditions are often not highly penetrant when ascertained incidentally from the general population.

Long-term trajectories of sleep duration are associated with incident diabetes in middle-to-older-aged Black and White Americans.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Both short and long sleep durations have been linked to higher diabetes risk. However, sleep duration may vary over time, and there has been limited research focusing on individual sleep trajectories and diabetes risk. There are substantial racial disparities in both sleep health and diabetes risk in the USA. Thus, it is important to understand the role of suboptimal sleep patterns in diabetes risk in different racial groups. METHODS: We assessed long-term trajectories of sleep duration and incident diabetes in 22,285 Black adults (mean age ± SD, 51.1 ± 8.2 years; 64.8% women) and 13,737 White adults (mean age ± SD, 54.4 ± 9.0 years; 63.8% women) enrolled in the Southern Community Cohort Study. Nine sleep trajectories were derived based on self-reported sleep duration at baseline and after a mean of 5 years of follow-up: normal-normal (reference), short-normal, normal-short, short-short, long-normal, normal-long, long-long, long-short and short-long. Diabetes was reported using a validated questionnaire. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression was used to determine relationships between sleep trajectories and incident diabetes. RESULTS: When compared with the normal-normal trajectory, suboptimal sleep trajectories were associated with higher likelihoods of developing diabetes (OR; 95% CI: short-normal 1.19; 1.09, 1.31; normal-short 1.14; 1.02, 1.27; short-short 1.17; 1.07, 1.28; long-normal 1.13; 0.98, 1.30; normal-long 1.16; 1.00, 1.34; long-long 1.23; 1.02, 1.48; long-short 1.45; 1.19, 1.77; short-long 1.51; 1.28, 1.77). Stratified analyses by race and socioeconomic status (i.e. education and household income) showed that most suboptimal sleep trajectories were consistently associated with incident diabetes in all sociodemographic subgroups. We also noted potential interaction with race and education for several sleep trajectories (i.e. short-long and normal-short with race; long-long and short-short with education). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Adults with suboptimal sleep duration trajectories are more likely to develop incident diabetes. Future research is needed to study how sociodemographic factors modulate this relationship.

Circadian Rest-Activity Rhythms, Delirium Risk, and Progression to Dementia.

OBJECTIVE: Delirium is a complex neurocognitive syndrome suspected to be bidirectionally linked to dementia. Circadian rhythm disturbances likely contribute to dementia pathogenesis, but whether these disturbances are related to delirium risk and progression to all-cause dementia is unknown. METHODS: We analyzed continuous actigraphy data from 53,417 middle-aged or older UK Biobank participants during a median 5 years of follow-up. Four measures were used to characterize the 24-hour daily rest-activity rhythms (RARs): normalized amplitude, acrophase representing the peak activity time, interdaily stability, and intradaily variability (IV) for fragmentation of the rhythm. Cox proportional hazards models examined whether RARs predicted incident delirium (n = 551) and progression to dementia (n = 61). RESULTS: Suppressed 24-hour amplitude, lowest (Q1) versus highest (Q4) quartile (hazard ratio [HR]Q1 vs Q4 = 1.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.53-2.46, p < 0.001), and more fragmented (higher IV: HRQ4 vs Q1 = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.18-1.88, p < 0.001) rhythms predicted higher delirium risk, after adjusting for age, sex, education, cognitive performance, sleep duration/disturbances, and comorbidities. In those free from dementia, each hour of delayed acrophase was associated with delirium risk (HR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.04-1.23, p = 0.003). Suppressed 24-hour amplitude was associated with increased risk of progression from delirium to new onset dementia (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.03-1.67, p = 0.03 for each 1-standard deviation decrease). INTERPRETATION: Twenty-four-hour daily RAR suppression, fragmentation, and potentially delayed acrophase were associated with delirium risk. Subsequent progression to dementia was more likely in delirium cases with suppressed rhythms. The presence of RAR disturbances before delirium and prior to progression to dementia suggests that these disturbances may predict higher risk and be involved in early disease pathogenesis. ANN NEUROL 2023;93:1145-1157.

Counting the lifetime cost of obesity: Analysis based on national England data.

AIM: Obesity has a significant impact on all-cause mortality rate and overall health care resource use (HCRU). These outcomes are also strongly linked to age, sex and local deprivation of the population. We aimed to establish the lifetime costs of obesity by demographic group/geographic area using published mortality rates and HCRU use for integrated care boards (ICB) in England in the context of costs of therapeutic intervention. METHODS: Population and expected mortality rates by age, sex and deprivation were obtained from national data. Obesity class prevalence was taken from the health of the nation study. The published impact of obesity by age, group, sex and deprivation on mortality and HCRU were applied to estimate life years lost and lifetime HCRU [by sex, age band and body mass index (BMI) class for each ICB]. The year 2019 was chosen as the study basis data to avoid influences of COVID-19 pandemic on obesity rates with application of 2022/23 HCRU values. Outcomes including prevalence, deaths, life years lost, HCRU and lifetime HCRU were compared by age and sex groups across four BMI classes normal/underweight (BMI <25 kg/m2 ), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2 ), obese class I and II (30-39.9 kg/m2 ), and obese class III (≥40), with benchmarking being set against all population being BMI <25 kg/m2 overall and by each of the 42 ICBs. We also associated future life with deaths to provide an estimate of 'future life years lost' occurring each year. RESULTS: Total population aged >16 years was 45.4 million (51% female). PREVALENCE: 13.7 million (28% of the total adult population) had a BMI ≥30 mg/m2 and BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were 1.50 million (12%) of these 1.0 million (68%) were female and of these 0.6 million 40% were women aged 16-49 years. In addition, 35% of those with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were in the top deprivation quintile (i.e. overall 20%). Mortality was based on expected deaths of 518K/year, and modelling suggested that if a BMI <25 kg/m2 was achieved in all individuals, the death rate would fall by 63K to 455K/year for the English population (12% reduction). For those with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 the predicted reduction was 12K deaths (54% lower); while in those aged 16-49 years with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 72% of deaths were linked to obesity. For future life years lost, we estimated 2.5 years were lost in people with BMI 30-39.9 kg/m2 6.7 years when BMI ≥40 kg/m2 . However, for those aged 16-49 years with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 , 8.3 years were lost. HCRU, for weight reduction, the annual HCRU decrease from BMI ≥40 kg/m2 to BMI 30-39.9 kg/m2 was £342 per person and from BMI 30-39.9 to 25-29.9 kg/m2 the reduction was £316/person. However, lifetime costs were similar because of reduced life expectancy for obese individuals. In quality adjusted life years (QALY), overall, 791 689 future life years were lost (13.1% of all) in people with BMI ≥25 kg/m2 and were related to excess weight. When the NICE £30 000 per QALY value was applied to the estimated total 791 689 future life years lost then the potential QALY value reduction lost was equivalent to £24 billion/year or £522/person in the obese population. For morbidly obese men and women the potential QALY value lost was £2864/person/year. Regarding geography, across the 42 ICBs, we observed significant variation in the prevalence of BMI ≥40 (1.8%-4.3%), excess mortality (11.6%-15.4%) and HCRU linked to higher BMI (7.2%-8.8%). The areas with the greatest impact on HCRU were in the north-west, north-east and Midlands of England, while the south shows less impact. CONCLUSION: The expected increases in annual HCRU because of obesity, when considered over a lifetime, are being mitigated by the increased mortality of obese individuals. Our data suggest that simple short-term HCRU reduction brought about through BMI reduction will be insufficient to fund additional specialist weight reduction interventions. The HRCUs associated with BMI are not in most cases related to short-term health conditions. They are a cumulative result over a number of years, so for age 16-49 years reducing BMI from ≥40 to 30-39.9 kg/m2 might show an annual decrease in HCRU/person by £325/year for women and £80/year for men but this might not have immediately occurred within that year. For those aged >70 years reducing BMI from ≥40 to 30-39.9 kg/m2 might show an annual decrease in HCRU/person by £777/year for women and £796/year for men but also may not be manifest within that year. However, for the morbidly obese men and women, the potential QALY value lost was £2864 per person per year with the potential for these funds to be applied to intensive weight management programmes, including pharmacotherapy.

Effectiveness of lifestyle interventions/culturally bespoke programmes in South Asian ethnic groups targeting weight loss for prevention and/or remission of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of intervention trials.

BACKGROUND: People from South Asian heritage are at high risk of type 2 diabetes, but there are limited specific strategies to prevent and manage this condition. The aim was to assess the effectiveness of culturally bespoke lifestyle programmes in South Asians that target weight loss for the prevention or remission of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of intervention trials. PubMed, Scopus, MEDLINE (EBSCOhost), CINAHL, PsycINFO and CENTRAL were searched. Human intervention trials (randomised controlled trials and quasi-experimental) investigating the effect of lifestyle interventions on the prevention and remission of T2DM in South Asians were included. Studies including participants at risk of T2DM (prevention trials) and having the disease (remission trials) with duration ≥12 weeks were eligible. For prevention trials, the primary outcome was change in weight (kg) from baseline; for remission trials, it was decrease in HbA1c to non-diabetic levels (HbA1c ≤ 6.5%) without diabetes medications. Prevention trials were separated into (i) lifestyle modification advice and (ii) lifestyle modification advice including a supervised physical activity programme. RESULTS: Twenty-four trials were eligible (21 prevention trials and 3 remission trials). In T2DM prevention trials involving only lifestyle modification advice, the mean postintervention difference in weight between intervention and control groups was -0.65 kg (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.04, -0.26; p = 0.01). Lifestyle modification advice including a physical activity programme was associated with greater decreases in weight: -1.13 kg (95% CI: -2.04, -0.21; p = 0.02). Fasting blood glucose levels were slightly lower in intervention groups for both intervention subtypes, although there was no significant change in HbA1c levels or 2-h plasma glucose levels. Diabetes remission trials showed potential acceptability but were limited in number and involved a small sample size, and some did not include a control group. CONCLUSIONS: In South Asians, lifestyle interventions for prevention of T2DM offer only modest impacts on weight and glucose control and will unlikely reduce diabetes incidence. Alternative lifestyle interventions co-designed with members of the communities and aimed at both prevention and remission of T2DM must be urgently considered. Systematic review registration number: PROSPERO CRD42022385174 https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=385174.

Exploiting collider bias to apply two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization methods to one-sample individual level data.

Over the last decade the availability of SNP-trait associations from genome-wide association studies has led to an array of methods for performing Mendelian randomization studies using only summary statistics. A common feature of these methods, besides their intuitive simplicity, is the ability to combine data from several sources, incorporate multiple variants and account for biases due to weak instruments and pleiotropy. With the advent of large and accessible fully-genotyped cohorts such as UK Biobank, there is now increasing interest in understanding how best to apply these well developed summary data methods to individual level data, and to explore the use of more sophisticated causal methods allowing for non-linearity and effect modification. In this paper we describe a general procedure for optimally applying any two sample summary data method using one sample data. Our procedure first performs a meta-analysis of summary data estimates that are intentionally contaminated by collider bias between the genetic instruments and unmeasured confounders, due to conditioning on the observed exposure. These estimates are then used to correct the standard observational association between an exposure and outcome. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the method's performance against naive applications of two sample summary data MR. We apply the approach to the UK Biobank cohort to investigate the causal role of sleep disturbance on HbA1c levels, an important determinant of diabetes. Our approach can be viewed as a generalization of Dudbridge et al. (Nat. Comm. 10: 1561), who developed a technique to adjust for index event bias when uncovering genetic predictors of disease progression based on case-only data. Our work serves to clarify that in any one sample MR analysis, it can be advantageous to estimate causal relationships by artificially inducing and then correcting for collider bias.

Addressing health inequalities in diabetes through research: Recommendations from Diabetes UK's 2022 health inequalities in diabetes workshop.

AIMS: To develop a position statement which identifies research priorities to address health inequalities in diabetes and provides recommendations to researchers and research funders on how best to conduct research in these areas. METHODS: A two-day research workshop was conducted bringing together research experts in diabetes, research experts in health inequalities, healthcare professionals and people living with diabetes. RESULTS: The following key areas were identified as needing increased focus: How can we improve patient and public involvement and engagement to make diabetes research more inclusive of and relevant to diverse communities? How can we improve research design so that the people who could benefit most are represented? How can we use theories from implementation science to facilitate the uptake of research findings into routine practice to reach the populations with highest need? How can we collate and evaluate local innovation projects and disseminate best practice around tackling health inequalities in diabetes? How can we best collect and use data to address health inequalities in diabetes, including the harnessing of real-world and routinely collected data? How could research funders allocate funds to best address health inequalities in diabetes? How do we ensure the research community is representative of the general population? CONCLUSIONS: This position statement outlines recommendations to address the urgent need to tackle health inequalities in diabetes through research and calls on the diabetes research community to act upon these recommendations to ensure future research works to eliminate unfair and avoidable disparities in health.

Editorial: Therapies for mental health difficulties: finding the sweet spot between standardization and personalization.

There are strong arguments for standardizing therapies for mental health difficulties in young people and for the development of digital therapies. At the same time, the importance of personalized treatments is also increasingly apparent. In this editorial, we discuss challenges and the continued need to find the sweet spot between standardization and personalization when it comes to therapies for mental health difficulties. We illustrate our discussion with reference to insomnia in adolescents/young adults as well as the chronic health condition type 1 diabetes.

Associations between insomnia symptoms and functional connectivity in the UK Biobank cohort (n = 29,423).

An increasing number of studies harness resting-state fMRI functional connectivity analysis to investigate the neurobiological mechanisms of insomnia. The results to date are inconsistent and the detection of minor and widely distributed alterations in functional connectivity requires large sample sizes. The present study investigated associations between insomnia symptoms and resting-state functional connectivity at the whole-brain level in the largest sample to date. This cross-sectional analysis used resting-state imaging data from the UK Biobank, a large scale, population-based biomedical database. The analysis included 29,423 participants (age: 63.1 ± 7.5 years, 54.3% female), comprising 9210 with frequent insomnia symptoms and 20,213 controls without. Linear models were adjusted for relevant clinical, imaging, and socio-demographic variables. The Akaike information criterion was used for model selection. Multiple comparisons were corrected using the false discovery rate with a significance level of q < 0.05. Frequent insomnia symptoms were associated with increased connectivity within the default mode network and frontoparietal network, increased negative connectivity between the default mode network and the frontoparietal network, and decreased connectivity between the salience network and a node of the default mode network. Furthermore, frequent insomnia symptoms were associated with altered functional connectivity between nodes comprising sensory areas and the cerebellum. These functional alterations of brain networks may underlie dysfunctional affective and cognitive processing in insomnia and contribute to subjectively and objectively impaired sleep. However, it must be noted that the item that was used to assess frequent insomnia symptoms in this study did not assess all the characteristics of clinically diagnosed insomnia.

Beta-cell death and dysfunction drives hyperglycaemia in organ donors.

BACKGROUND: Donor hyperglycaemia following brain death has been attributed to reversible insulin resistance. However, our islet and pancreas transplant data suggest that other mechanisms may be predominant. We aimed to determine the relationships between donor insulin use and markers of beta-cell death and beta-cell function in pancreas donors after brain death. METHODS: In pancreas donors after brain death, we compared clinical and biochemical data in 'insulin-treated' and 'not insulin-treated donors' (IT vs. not-IT). We measured plasma glucose, C-peptide and levels of circulating unmethylated insulin gene promoter cell-free DNA (INS-cfDNA) and microRNA-375 (miR-375), as measures of beta-cell death. Relationships between markers of beta-cell death and islet isolation outcomes and post-transplant function were also evaluated. RESULTS: Of 92 pancreas donors, 40 (43%) required insulin. Glycaemic control and beta-cell function were significantly poorer in IT donors versus not-IT donors [median (IQR) peak glucose: 8 (7-11) vs. 6 (6-8) mmol/L, p = .016; C-peptide: 3280 (3159-3386) vs. 3195 (2868-3386) pmol/L, p = .046]. IT donors had significantly higher levels of INS-cfDNA [35 (18-52) vs. 30 (8-51) copies/ml, p = .035] and miR-375 [1.050 (0.19-1.95) vs. 0.73 (0.32-1.10) copies/nl, p = .05]. Circulating donor miR-375 was highly predictive of recipient islet graft failure at 3 months [adjusted receiver operator curve (SE) = 0.813 (0.149)]. CONCLUSIONS: In pancreas donors, hyperglycaemia requiring IT is strongly associated with beta-cell death. This provides an explanation for the relationship of donor IT with post-transplant beta-cell dysfunction in transplant recipients.

The circadian clock protein REVERBα inhibits pulmonary fibrosis development.

Pulmonary inflammatory responses lie under circadian control; however, the importance of circadian mechanisms in the underlying fibrotic phenotype is not understood. Here, we identify a striking change to these mechanisms resulting in a gain of amplitude and lack of synchrony within pulmonary fibrotic tissue. These changes result from an infiltration of mesenchymal cells, an important cell type in the pathogenesis of pulmonary fibrosis. Mutation of the core clock protein REVERBα in these cells exacerbated the development of bleomycin-induced fibrosis, whereas mutation of REVERBα in club or myeloid cells had no effect on the bleomycin phenotype. Knockdown of REVERBα revealed regulation of the little-understood transcription factor TBPL1. Both REVERBα and TBPL1 altered integrinß1 focal-adhesion formation, resulting in increased myofibroblast activation. The translational importance of our findings was established through analysis of 2 human cohorts. In the UK Biobank, circadian strain markers (sleep length, chronotype, and shift work) are associated with pulmonary fibrosis, making them risk factors. In a separate cohort, REVERBα expression was increased in human idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) lung tissue. Pharmacological targeting of REVERBα inhibited myofibroblast activation in IPF fibroblasts and collagen secretion in organotypic cultures from IPF patients, thus suggesting that targeting of REVERBα could be a viable therapeutic approach.

Incidence of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulant prescribing in England, 2009 to 2019: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important risk factor for ischaemic stroke, and AF incidence is expected to increase. Guidelines recommend using oral anticoagulants (OACs) to prevent the development of stroke. However, studies have reported the frequent underuse of OACs in AF patients. The objective of this study is to describe nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) incidence in England and assess the clinical and socioeconomic factors associated with the underprescribing of OACs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database to identify patients with NVAF aged ≥18 years and registered in English general practices between 2009 and 2019. Annual incidence rate of NVAF by age, deprivation quintile, and region was estimated. OAC prescribing status was explored for patients at risk for stroke and classified into the following: OAC, aspirin only, or no treatment. We used a multivariable multinomial logistic regression model to estimate relative risk ratios (RRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the factors associated with OAC or aspirin-only prescribing compared to no treatment in patients with NVAF who are recommended to take OAC. The multivariable regression was adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, baseline treatment, frailty, bleeding risk factors, and takes into account clustering by general practice. Between 2009 and 2019, 12,517,191 patients met the criteria for being at risk of developing NVAF. After a median follow-up of 4.6 years, 192,265 patients had an incident NVAF contributing a total of 647,876 person-years (PYR) of follow-up. The overall age-adjusted incidence of NVAF per 10,000 PYR increased from 20.8 (95% CI: 20.4; 21.1) in 2009 to 25.5 (25.1; 25.9) in 2019. Higher incidence rates were observed for older ages and males. Among NVAF patients eligible for anticoagulation, OAC prescribing rose from 59.8% (95% CI: 59.0; 60.6) in 2009 to 83.2% (95% CI: 83.0; 83.4) in 2019. Several conditions were associated with lower risk of OAC prescribing: dementia [RRR 0.52 (0.47; 0.59)], liver disease 0.58 (0.50; 0.67), malignancy 0.74 (0.72; 0.77), and history of falls 0.82 (0.78; 0.85). Compared to white ethnicity, patients from black and other ethnic minorities were less likely to receive OAC; 0.78 (0.65; 0.94) and 0.76 (0.64; 0.91), respectively. Patients living in the most deprived areas were less likely to receive OAC 0.85 (0.79; 0.91) than patients living in the least deprived areas. Practices located in the East of England were associated with higher risk of prescribing aspirin only over no treatment than practices in London (RRR 1.22; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.45). The main limitation of this study is that these findings depends on accurate recording of conditions by health professionals and the inevitable residual confounding due to lack of data on certain factors that could be associated with under-prescribing of OACs. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of NVAF increased between 2009 and 2015, before plateauing. Underprescribing of OACs in NVAF is associated with a range of comorbidities, ethnicity, and socioeconomic factors, demonstrating the need for initiatives to reduce inequalities in the care for AF patients.

Excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex, neighbourhood deprivation, and region in England and Wales during 2020: A registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: Deaths in the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Wales were unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated to date, as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used national mortality registers in England and Wales, from 27 December 2014 until 25 December 2020, covering 3,265,937 deaths. YLLs (main outcome) were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England and Wales. Interrupted time-series analyses, with panel time-series models, were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease and diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths (all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group. Between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020, there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England and Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from 916 (95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to 1,645 (95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, a mean of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, a mean of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. For all-cause mortality, estimated deaths in the most deprived compared to the most affluent areas were much higher in younger age groups, but similar for those aged 85 or over. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in the North West. Limitations include the quasi-experimental nature of the research design and the requirement for accurate and timely recording. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed strong socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in YLL, during the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These were in line with long-standing existing inequalities in England and Wales, with the most deprived areas reporting the largest numbers in potential YLL.

The impact of islet mass, number of transplants, and time between transplants on graft function in a national islet transplant program.

The UK islet allotransplant program is nationally funded to deliver one or two transplants over 12 months to individuals with type 1 diabetes and recurrent severe hypoglycemia. Analyses were undertaken 10 years after program inception to evaluate associations between transplanted mass; single versus two transplants; time between two transplants and graft survival (stimulated C-peptide >50 pmol/L) and function. In total, 84 islet transplant recipients were studied. Uninterrupted graft survival over 12 months was attained in 23 (68%) single and 47 (94%) (p = .002) two transplant recipients (separated by [median (IQR)] 6 (3-8) months). 64% recipients of one or two transplants with uninterrupted function at 12 months sustained graft function at 6 years. Total transplanted mass was associated with Mixed Meal Tolerance Test stimulated C-peptide at 12 months (p < .01). Despite 1.9-fold greater transplanted mass in recipients of two versus one islet infusion (12 218 [9291-15 417] vs. 6442 [5156-7639] IEQ/kg; p < .0001), stimulated C-peptide was not significantly higher. Shorter time between transplants was associated with greater insulin dose reduction at 12 months (beta -0.35; p = .02). Graft survival over the first 12 months was greater in recipients of two versus one islet transplant in the UK program, although function at 1 and 6 years was comparable. Minimizing the interval between 2 islet infusions may maximize cumulative impact on graft function.

Using Mendelian Randomisation methods to understand whether diurnal preference is causally related to mental health.

Late diurnal preference has been linked to poorer mental health outcomes, but the understanding of the causal role of diurnal preference on mental health and wellbeing is currently limited. Late diurnal preference is often associated with circadian misalignment (a mismatch between the timing of the endogenous circadian system and behavioural rhythms), so that evening people live more frequently against their internal clock. This study aims to quantify the causal contribution of diurnal preference on mental health outcomes, including anxiety, depression and general wellbeing and test the hypothesis that more misaligned individuals have poorer mental health and wellbeing using an actigraphy-based measure of circadian misalignment. Multiple Mendelian Randomisation (MR) approaches were used to test causal pathways between diurnal preference and seven well-validated mental health and wellbeing outcomes in up to 451,025 individuals. In addition, observational analyses tested the association between a novel, objective measure of behavioural misalignment (Composite Phase Deviation, CPD) and seven mental health and wellbeing outcomes. Using genetic instruments identified in the largest GWAS for diurnal preference, we provide robust evidence that early diurnal preference is protective for depression and improves wellbeing. For example, using one-sample MR, a twofold higher genetic liability of morningness was associated with lower odds of depressive symptoms (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.97). It is possible that behavioural factors including circadian misalignment may contribute in the chronotype depression relationship, but further work is needed to confirm these findings.

Body mass index and cancer mortality in patients with incident type 2 diabetes: A population-based study of adults in England.

AIMS: We evaluated the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and cancer mortality in incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD (1998-2015), linked with the Office of National Statistics mortalities, and derived an incident type 2 diabetes cohort (N = 176 886; aged 30-85 years). We determined BMI ±12 months diabetes diagnosis. The primary outcome was cancer mortality, categorized into deaths from obesity-related cancers (ORCs) and non-ORCs. Secondary outcomes were site-specific cancer mortality and main causes of deaths [cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), non-cancer non-CVD]. We developed gender-specific Cox models and expressed risk as hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, stratified by smoking status. RESULTS: With 886 850 person-years follow-up, 7593 cancer deaths occurred. Among women who never smoked, there were positive associations between BMI and deaths from endometrial (hazard ratios per 5 kg/m2 : 1.43; 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.61). Among men, associations between BMI and ORC mortality were inverse but attenuated towards null among never smokers and excluding deaths in the first 2 years. In men, the proportion of CVD deaths increased from 36.8% in BMI category 22.5 to 24.9 kg/m2 to 43.6% in BMI category ≥40 kg/m2 (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We found some relationships between BMI and cancer mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes, but interpretations need to account for smoking status, reverse causality and deaths from CVD.

Donor insulin therapy in intensive care predicts early outcomes after pancreas transplantation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Approximately 50% of organ donors develop hyperglycaemia in intensive care, which is managed with insulin therapy. We aimed to determine the relationships between donor insulin use (DIU) and graft failure in pancreas transplantation. METHODS: UK Transplant Registry organ donor data were linked with national data from the UK solid pancreas transplant programme. All pancreas transplants performed between 2004 and 2016 with complete follow-up data were included. Logistic regression models determined associations between DIU and causes of graft failure within 3 months. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (aROC) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) assessed the added value of DIU as a predictor of graft failure. RESULTS: In 2168 pancreas transplant recipients, 1112 (51%) donors were insulin-treated. DIU was associated with a higher risk of graft loss from isolated islet failure: OR (95% CI), 1.79 (1.05, 3.07), p = 0.03, and this relationship was duration/dose dependent. DIU was also associated with a higher risk of graft loss from anastomotic leak (2.72 [1.07, 6.92], p = 0.04) and a lower risk of graft loss from thrombosis (0.62 [0.39, 0.96], p = 0.03), although duration/dose-dependent relationships were only identified in pancreas transplant alone/pancreas after kidney transplant recipients with grafts failing due to thrombosis (0.86 [0.74, 0.99], p = 0.03). The relationships between donor insulin characteristics and isolated islet failure remained significant after adjusting for potential confounders: DIU 1.75 (1.02, 2.99), p = 0.04; duration 1.08 (1.01, 1.16), p = 0.03. In multivariable analyses, donor insulin characteristics remained significant predictors of lower risk of graft thrombosis in pancreas transplant alone/pancreas after kidney transplant recipients: DIU, 0.34 (0.13, 0.90), p = 0.03; insulin duration/dose, 0.02 (0.001, 0.85), p = 0.04. When data on insulin were added to models predicting isolated islet failure, a significant improvement in discrimination and risk reclassification was observed in all models: no DIU aROC 0.56; DIU aROC 0.57, p = 0.86; NRI 0.28, p < 0.00001; insulin duration aROC 0.60, p = 0.47; NRI 0.35, p < 0.00001. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: DIU predicts graft survival in pancreas transplant recipients. This assessment could help improve donor selection and thereby improve patient and graft outcomes.

Risk Factor Control and Cardiovascular Event Risk in People With Type 2 Diabetes in Primary and Secondary Prevention Settings.

BACKGROUND: To examine the association between the degree of risk factor control and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in type 2 diabetes and to assess if the presence of cardio-renal disease modifies these relationships. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using data from English practices from CPRD GOLD (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and the SCI-Diabetes dataset (Scottish Care Information-Diabetes), with linkage to hospital and mortality data. We identified 101 749 with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in CPRD matched with 378 938 controls without diabetes and 330 892 with type 2 diabetes in SCI-Diabetes between 2006 and 2015. The main exposure was number of optimized risk factors: nonsmoker, total cholesterol ≤4 mmol/L, triglycerides ≤1.7 mmol/L, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≤53 mmol/mol (≤7.0%), systolic blood pressure <140mm Hg, or <130 mm Hg if high risk. Cox models were used to assess cardiovascular risk associated with levels of risk factor control. RESULTS: In CPRD, the mean baseline age in T2D was 63 years and 28% had cardio-renal disease (SCI-Diabetes: 62 years; 35% cardio-renal disease). Over 3 years follow-up (SCI-Diabetes: 6 years), CVD events occurred among 27 900 (27%) CPRD-T2D, 101 362 (31%) SCI-Diabetes-T2D, and 75 520 (19%) CPRD-controls. In CPRD, compared with controls, T2D participants with optimal risk factor control (all risk factors controlled) had a higher risk of CVD events (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.29). In T2D participants from CPRD and SCI-Diabetes, pooled hazard ratios for CVD associated with 5 risk factors being elevated versus optimal risk factor control were 1.09 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.17) in people with cardio-renal disease but 1.96 (95% confidence interval, 1.82-2.12) in people without cardio-renal disease. People without cardio-renal disease were younger and more likely to have likely to have suboptimal risk factor control but had fewer prescriptions for risk factor modifying medications than those with cardio-renal disease. CONCLUSIONS: Optimally managed people with T2D have a 21% higher CVD risk when compared with controls. People with T2D without cardio-renal disease would be predicted to benefit greatly from CVD risk factor intervention.

Autoreactive T cell profiles are altered following allogeneic islet transplantation with alemtuzumab induction and re-emerging phenotype is associated with graft function.

Islet transplantation is an effective therapy for life-threatening hypoglycemia, but graft function gradually declines over time in many recipients. We characterized islet-specific T cells in recipients within an islet transplant program favoring alemtuzumab (ATZ) lymphodepleting induction and examined associations with graft function. Fifty-eight recipients were studied: 23 pretransplant and 40 posttransplant (including 5 with pretransplant phenotyping). The proportion with islet-specific T cell responses was not significantly different over time (pre-Tx: 59%; 1-6 m posttransplant: 38%; 7-12 m: 44%; 13-24 m: 47%; and >24 m: 45%). However, phenotype shifted significantly, with IFN-γ-dominated response in the pretransplant group replaced by IL-10-dominated response in the 1-6 m posttransplant group, reverting to predominantly IFN-γ-oriented response in the >24 m group. Clustering analysis of posttransplant responses revealed two main agglomerations, characterized by IFN-γ and IL-10 phenotypes, respectively. IL-10-oriented posttransplant response was associated with relatively low graft function. Recipients within the IL-10+ cluster had a significant decline in C-peptide levels in the period preceding the IL-10 response, but stable graft function following the response. In contrast, an IFN-γ response was associated with subsequently decreased C-peptide. Islet transplantation favoring ATZ induction is associated with an initial altered islet-specific T cell phenotype but reversion toward pretransplant profiles over time. Posttransplant autoreactive T cell phenotype may be a predictor of subsequent graft function.

Shift work is associated with positive COVID-19 status in hospitalised patients.

INTRODUCTION: Shift work is associated with lung disease and infections. We therefore investigated the impact of shift work on significant COVID-19 illness. METHODS: 501 000 UK Biobank participants were linked to secondary care SARS-CoV-2 PCR results from Public Health England. Healthcare worker occupational testing and those without an occupational history were excluded from analysis. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression (age, sex, ethnicity and deprivation index) revealed that irregular shift work (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.92 to 3.05), permanent shift work (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.95 to 3.19), day shift work (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.55 to 2.6), irregular night shift work (OR 3.04, 95% CI 2.37 to 3.9) and permanent night shift work (OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.67 to 3.7) were all associated with positive COVID-19 tests compared with participants that did not perform shift work. This relationship persisted after adding sleep duration, chronotype, premorbid disease, body mass index, alcohol and smoking to the model. The effects of workplace were controlled for in three ways: (1) by adding in work factors (proximity to a colleague combined with estimated disease exposure) to the multivariate model or (2) comparing participants within each job sector (non-essential, essential and healthcare) and (3) comparing shift work and non-shift working colleagues. In all cases, shift work was significantly associated with COVID-19. In 2017, 120 307 UK Biobank participants had their occupational history reprofiled. Using this updated occupational data shift work remained associated with COVID-19 (OR 4.48 (95% CI 1.8 to 11.18). CONCLUSIONS: Shift work is associated with a higher likelihood of in-hospital COVID-19 positivity. This risk could potentially be mitigated via additional workplace precautions or vaccination.