Filling gaps in a large reserve network to address freshwater conservation needs.

Freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity are among the most threatened at global scale, but efforts for their conservation have been mostly peripheral to terrestrial conservation. For example, Natura 2000, the world's largest network of protected areas, fails to cover adequately the distribution of rare and endangered aquatic species, and lacks of appropriate spatial design to make conservation for freshwater biodiversity effective. Here, we develop a framework to identify a complementary set of priority areas and enhance the conservation opportunities of Natura 2000 for freshwater biodiversity, using the Iberian Peninsula as a case study. We use a systematic planning approach to identify a minimum set of additional areas that would help i) adequately represent all freshwater fish, amphibians and aquatic reptiles at three different target levels, ii) account for key ecological processes derived from riverscape connectivity, and iii) minimize the impact of threats, both within protected areas and propagated from upstream unprotected areas. Addressing all these goals would need an increase in area between 7 and 46%, depending on the conservation target used and strength of connectivity required. These new priority areas correspond to subcatchments inhabited by endangered and range restricted species, as well as additional subcatchments required to improve connectivity among existing protected areas and to increase protection against upstream threats. Our study should help guide future revisions of the design of Natura 2000, while providing a framework to address deficiencies in reserve networks for adequately protecting freshwater biodiversity elsewhere.

The ADnet Bayesian belief network for alder decline: Integrating empirical data and expert knowledge.

The globalization in plant material trading has caused the emergence of invasive pests in many ecosystems, such as the alder pathogen Phytophthora ×alni in European riparian forests. Due to the ecological importance of alder to the functioning of rivers and the increasing incidence of P. ×alni-induced alder decline, effective and accessible decision tools are required to help managers and stakeholders control the disease. This study proposes a Bayesian belief network methodology to integrate diverse information on the factors affecting the survival and infection ability of P. ×alni in riparian habitats to help predict and manage disease incidence. The resulting Alder Decline Network (ADnet) management tool integrates information about alder decline from scientific literature, expert knowledge and empirical data. Expert knowledge was gathered through elicitation techniques that included 19 experts from 12 institutions and 8 countries. An original dataset was created covering 1189 European locations, from which P. ×alni occurrence was modeled based on bioclimatic variables. ADnet uncertainty was evaluated through its sensitivity to changes in states and three scenario analyses. The ADnet tool indicated that mild temperatures and high precipitation are key factors favoring pathogen survival. Flood timing, water velocity, and soil type have the strongest influence on disease incidence. ADnet can support ecosystem management decisions and knowledge transfer to address P. ×alni-induced alder decline at local or regional levels across Europe. Management actions such as avoiding the planting of potentially infected trees or removing man-made structures that increase the flooding period in disease-affected sites could decrease the incidence of alder disease in riparian forests and limit its spread. The coverage of the ADnet tool can be expanded by updating data on the pathogen's occurrence, particularly from its distributional limits. Research on the role of genetic variability in alder susceptibility and pathogen virulence may also help improve future ADnet versions.

iPODfish - A new method to infer the historical occurrence of diadromous fish species along river networks.

Available information on diadromous fish species historical occurrences is generally biased and incomplete across species distribution range and spatial scales. This work aims to establish a new methodological framework (iPODfish - Inferring Past Occurrences of Diadromous Fish) to obtain a more complete representation of the historical occurrences of diadromous fish species over their full distribution range. The iPODfish is based on assumptions, rules and thresholds derived from the interplay between freshwater network features, diadromous fish species ecology and known historical occurrence. These are used to establish historical pseudo-occurrences at the segment scale, i.e., locations where the species was most likely to be present or absent. The methodology is expressed by a tree-like representation of a stepwise, information supported, decision process. It has five steps (separating main river segments from tributary segments; accounting for segments specificities; imposing the relative distance threshold; imposing the Strahler value threshold, and; establishing the sub-basin Strahler threshold), divides into two moments of application (main river followed by the tributaries) and establishes presences, pseudo-presences and pseudo-absences. The iPODfish can deal with multiple information sources, cope with data bias and provide a reliable consistent historical occurrence output at the segment scale for the known historical geographical range of the species. Despite its inference nature, iPODfish is still a conservative procedure leading to ecologically coherent outputs that may be applied to any diadromous fish species (with a relevant amount of historical data available) in any river network throughout the globe because the concepts and definitions used are general ecological features of diadromous and freshwater networks. The method outputs are applicable in biogeographical and/or macroecological studies using historical data and may prove useful to the management and conservation of diadromous fish species.

Major threats to European freshwater fish species.

In Europe, freshwater fish are the richest group amongst European vertebrates and the second most threatened animal group, surpassed only by freshwater molluscs. The identification of threats is a major benefit for conservation efforts, as it allows actions to be bespoke to specific threats imperilling fish communities in sensitive areas. In this work, we analyse all threats identified under the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species for all European native freshwater dependent fish and lamprey species and relate them with the species distribution, conservation status and migratory phenology. Results show that the current level of imperilment of European freshwater fish fauna is high, especially in the Iberian Peninsula fish communities where low richness is combined with a proportion of threatened species surpassing 50% in several catchments The most relevant threats affecting European freshwater fish are: "Dams & Water Management/Use", "Droughts", "Invasive Non-Native/Alien Species/Diseases", "Agricultural & Forestry Effluents" and "Fishing & Harvesting Aquatic Resources". The present work contributes to the ultimate goal of species conservation by highlighting the main threats affecting freshwater fish species in Europe and by demonstrating how specific regions need particular attention. Increasing longitudinal connectivity stands out as a measure with the potential to increase species' resilience to the several threats affecting them, and it should be coupled with additional efforts to reduce water pollution, control alien species and effectively manage fishing.

Damn those damn dams: Fluvial longitudinal connectivity impairment for European diadromous fish throughout the 20th century.

River longitudinal connectivity is crucial for diadromous fish species to reproduce and grow, its fragmentation by large dams may prevent these species to complete their life cycle. This work aims to evaluate the impact of large dams on the structural longitudinal connectivity at the European scale, from a Diadromous fish species perspective, since the beginning of the 20th century until the early 21st century. Based on large dam locations and completion year, a multitude of river impairment metrics were calculated at three spatial scales for six European oceanic regions and 12 time periods. The number of basins affected by large dams is overall low (0.4%), but for large river basins, that cover 78% of Europe's area, 69.5% of all basins, 55.4% of the sub-basins and 68.4% of river length are impaired. River network connectivity impairment became increasingly significant during the second half of the 20th century and is nowadays spatially widespread across Europe. Except for the North Atlantic, all oceanic regions have over 50% of impacted river length. Considering large river basins, the Mediterranean (95.2%) and West Atlantic (84.6%) regions are the most affected, while the Black (92.1%) and Caspian (96.0%) regions stand out as those with most compromised river length. In 60 years, Europe has gone from reduced impairment to over two-thirds of its large rivers with structural connectivity problems due to large dams. The number of such barriers increased significantly in the second half of the 20th century, especially main stem dams with decreasing distance to the river mouth. Currently, the structural longitudinal connectivity of European river networks is severely impacted. This concerns all regions considered, and those in southern Europe will face even higher challenges, given that this will be a future hot spot for hydropower development and predictably more affected by climate change.

Knowledge Gaps in the Definition of Threats for the Red List Assessment of European Freshwater-Dependent Fish Species.

Freshwater ecosystems are disproportionally important for biodiversity conservation, as they support more than 9% of known animal species while representing less than 1% of the Earth's surface. However, the vast majority of the threats (99%, or 826 out of 837) identified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species known to affect the 434 known freshwater-dependent fish and lampreys of Europe are not supported by validated published scientific knowledge. This general lack of information about freshwater-dependent fish and lamprey species may have deleterious effects on species conservation, and additional funding is required to fill baseline knowledge gaps.

Making waves. Bridging theory and practice towards multiple stressor management in freshwater ecosystems.

Despite advances in conceptual understanding, single-stressor abatement approaches remain common in the management of fresh waters, even though they can produce unexpected ecological responses when multiple stressors interact. Here we identify limitations restricting the development of multiple-stressor management strategies and address these, bridging theory and practice, within a novel empirical framework. Those critical limitations include that (i) monitoring schemes fall short of accounting for theory on relationships between multiple-stressor interactions and ecological responses, (ii) current empirical modelling approaches neglect the prevalence and intensity of multiple-stressor interactions, and (iii) mechanisms of stressor interactions are often poorly understood. We offer practical recommendations for the use of empirical models and experiments to predict the effects of freshwater degradation in response to changes in multiple stressors, demonstrating this approach in a case study. Drawing on our framework, we offer practical recommendations to support the development of effective management strategies in three general multiple-stressor scenarios.

The Biological Assessment and Rehabilitation of the World's Rivers: An Overview.

The biological assessment of rivers i.e., their assessment through use of aquatic assemblages, integrates the effects of multiple-stressors on these systems over time and is essential to evaluate ecosystem condition and establish recovery measures. It has been undertaken in many countries since the 1990s, but not globally. And where national or multi-national monitoring networks have gathered large amounts of data, the poor water body classifications have not necessarily resulted in the rehabilitation of rivers. Thus, here we aimed to identify major gaps in the biological assessment and rehabilitation of rivers worldwide by focusing on the best examples in Asia, Europe, Oceania, and North, Central, and South America. Our study showed that it is not possible so far to draw a world map of the ecological quality of rivers. Biological assessment of rivers and streams is only implemented officially nation-wide and regularly in the European Union, Japan, Republic of Korea, South Africa, and the USA. In Australia, Canada, China, New Zealand, and Singapore it has been implemented officially at the state/province level (in some cases using common protocols) or in major catchments or even only once at the national level to define reference conditions (Australia). In other cases, biological monitoring is driven by a specific problem, impact assessments, water licenses, or the need to rehabilitate a river or a river section (as in Brazil, South Korea, China, Canada, Japan, Australia). In some countries monitoring programs have only been explored by research teams mostly at the catchment or local level (e.g., Brazil, Mexico, Chile, China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam) or implemented by citizen science groups (e.g., Southern Africa, Gambia, East Africa, Australia, Brazil, Canada). The existing large-extent assessments show a striking loss of biodiversity in the last 2-3 decades in Japanese and New Zealand rivers (e.g., 42% and 70% of fish species threatened or endangered, respectively). A poor condition (below Good condition) exists in 25% of South Korean rivers, half of the European water bodies, and 44% of USA rivers, while in Australia 30% of the reaches sampled were significantly impaired in 2006. Regarding river rehabilitation, the greatest implementation has occurred in North America, Australia, Northern Europe, Japan, Singapore, and the Republic of Korea. Most rehabilitation measures have been related to improving water quality and river connectivity for fish or the improvement of riparian vegetation. The limited extent of most rehabilitation measures (i.e., not considering the entire catchment) often constrains the improvement of biological condition. Yet, many rehabilitation projects also lack pre-and/or post-monitoring of ecological condition, which prevents assessing the success and shortcomings of the recovery measures. Economic constraints are the most cited limitation for implementing monitoring programs and rehabilitation actions, followed by technical limitations, limited knowledge of the fauna and flora and their life-history traits (especially in Africa, South America and Mexico), and poor awareness by decision-makers. On the other hand, citizen involvement is recognized as key to the success and sustainability of rehabilitation projects. Thus, establishing rehabilitation needs, defining clear goals, tracking progress towards achieving them, and involving local populations and stakeholders are key recommendations for rehabilitation projects (Table 1). Large-extent and long-term monitoring programs are also essential to provide a realistic overview of the condition of rivers worldwide. Soon, the use of DNA biological samples and eDNA to investigate aquatic diversity could contribute to reducing costs and thus increase monitoring efforts and a more complete assessment of biodiversity. Finally, we propose developing transcontinental teams to elaborate and improve technical guidelines for implementing biological monitoring programs and river rehabilitation and establishing common financial and technical frameworks for managing international catchments. We also recommend providing such expert teams through the United Nations Environment Program to aid the extension of biomonitoring, bioassessment, and river rehabilitation knowledge globally.

Factors related to fish kill events in Mediterranean reservoirs.

Fish kills are widespread visible events perceived by the civil society as a major cause for concern about water quality and ecosystem health. Investigations conducted so far have linked fish kills to multiple factors, but extensive studies examining quantitatively the likelihood of fish kills are missing. In the present study, factors related to fish kills in 67 Mediterranean reservoirs located in the Iberian Peninsula were investigated. Moreover, the variation in the likelihood of fish kills with the foreseen consequences of anthropogenically driven climate change upon temperature and precipitation was assessed. During the 23-year period studied (1995-2017) the number of fish kills per reservoir varied from 0 to 3 and happened mostly in Southern reservoirs and during the warmest months, particularly in June. Twelve explanatory variables showed significant differences between reservoirs with and without fish die-offs. Reservoir depth, surface area oxygen and chlorophyll a concentrations were the variables that, together, best discriminated between reservoirs with and without fish kills, explaining 67.2% of the total variation in the occurrence of fish die-offs. The variables retained in the mortality model explained unique parts of that variation, but a considerable amount of the explained variation was shared by all the variables. The number of fish kill events appears to be rising during the examined period and the projection made indicated an increase in the likelihood of fish kills towards the end of the 21st century, particularly for the RCP8.5 emission scenario, with the prevalence of fish kills reaching 0.865 in Southern reservoirs. In the future, oligotrophication is likely the only strategy to consistently reduce fish kills in Mediterranean reservoirs.

Modelling landscape constraints on farmland bird species range shifts under climate change.

Several studies estimating the effects of global environmental change on biodiversity are focused on climate change. Yet, non-climatic factors such as changes in land cover can also be of paramount importance. This may be particularly important for habitat specialists associated with human-dominated landscapes, where land cover and climate changes may be largely decoupled. Here, we tested this idea by modelling the influence of climate, landscape composition and pattern, on the predicted future (2021-2050) distributions of 21 farmland bird species in the Iberian Peninsula, using boosted regression trees and 10-km resolution presence/absence data. We also evaluated whether habitat specialist species were more affected by landscape factors than generalist species. Overall, this study showed that the contribution of current landscape composition and pattern to the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) was relatively low. However, SDMs built using either climate or climate plus landscape variables yielded very different predictions of future species range shifts and, hence, of the geographical patterns of change in species richness. Our results indicate that open habitat specialist species tend to expand their range, whereas habitat generalist species tend to retract under climate change scenarios. The effect of incorporating landscape factors were particularly marked on open habitat specialists of conservation concern, for which the expected expansion under climate change seems to be severely constrained by land cover change. Overall, results suggest that particular attention should be given to landscape change in addition to climate when modelling the impacts of environmental changes for both farmland specialist and generalist bird distributions.

Understanding multiple stressors in a Mediterranean basin: Combined effects of land use, water scarcity and nutrient enrichment.

River basins are extremely complex hierarchical and directional systems that are affected by a multitude of interacting stressors. This complexity hampers effective management and conservation planning to be effectively implemented, especially under climate change. The objective of this work is to provide a wide scale approach to basin management by interpreting the effect of isolated and interacting factors in several biotic elements (fish, macroinvertebrates, phytobenthos and macrophytes). For that, a case study in the Sorraia basin (Central Portugal), a Mediterranean system mainly facing water scarcity and diffuse pollution problems, was chosen. To develop the proposed framework, a combination of process-based modelling to simulate hydrological and nutrient enrichment stressors and empirical modelling to relate these stressors - along with land use and natural background - with biotic indicators, was applied. Biotic indicators based on ecological quality ratios from WFD biomonitoring data were used as response variables. Temperature, river slope, % of agriculture in the upstream catchment and total N were the variables more frequently ranked as the most relevant. Both the two significant interactions found between single hydrological and nutrient enrichment stressors indicated antagonistic effects. This study demonstrates the potentialities of coupling process-based modelling with empirical modelling within a single framework, allowing relationships among different ecosystem states to be hierarchized, interpreted and predicted at multiple spatial and temporal scales. It also demonstrates how isolated and interacting stressors can have a different impact on biotic quality. When performing conservation or management plans, the stressor hierarchy should be considered as a way of prioritizing actions in a cost-effective perspective.

One millennium of historical freshwater fish occurrence data for Portuguese rivers and streams.

The insights that historical evidence of human presence and man-made documents provide are unique. For example, using historical data may be critical to adequately understand the ecological requirements of species. However, historical information about freshwater species distribution remains largely a knowledge gap. In this Data Descriptor, we present the Portuguese Historical Fish Database (PHish-DB), a compilation of 2214 records (557 at the basin scale, 184 at the sub-basin scale and 1473 at the segment scale) resulting from a survey of 194 historical documents. The database was developed using a three-scale approach that maximises the inclusion of information by allowing different degrees of spatial acuity. PHish database contains records of 25 taxonomical groups and covers a time span of one millennium, from the 11th until the 20th century. This database has already proven useful for two scientific studies, and PHish further use will contribute to correctly assess the full range of conditions tolerated by species, by establishing adequate benchmark conditions, and/or to improve existing knowledge of the species distribution limits.

Implementation options for DNA-based identification into ecological status assessment under the European Water Framework Directive.

Assessment of ecological status for the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) is based on "Biological Quality Elements" (BQEs), namely phytoplankton, benthic flora, benthic invertebrates and fish. Morphological identification of these organisms is a time-consuming and expensive procedure. Here, we assess the options for complementing and, perhaps, replacing morphological identification with procedures using eDNA, metabarcoding or similar approaches. We rate the applicability of DNA-based identification for the individual BQEs and water categories (rivers, lakes, transitional and coastal waters) against eleven criteria, summarised under the headlines representativeness (for example suitability of current sampling methods for DNA-based identification, errors from DNA-based species detection), sensitivity (for example capability to detect sensitive taxa, unassigned reads), precision of DNA-based identification (knowledge about uncertainty), comparability with conventional approaches (for example sensitivity of metrics to differences in DNA-based identification), cost effectiveness and environmental impact. Overall, suitability of DNA-based identification is particularly high for fish, as eDNA is a well-suited sampling approach which can replace expensive and potentially harmful methods such as gill-netting, trawling or electrofishing. Furthermore, there are attempts to replace absolute by relative abundance in metric calculations. For invertebrates and phytobenthos, the main challenges include the modification of indices and completing barcode libraries. For phytoplankton, the barcode libraries are even more problematic, due to the high taxonomic diversity in plankton samples. If current assessment concepts are kept, DNA-based identification is least appropriate for macrophytes (rivers, lakes) and angiosperms/macroalgae (transitional and coastal waters), which are surveyed rather than sampled. We discuss general implications of implementing DNA-based identification into standard ecological assessment, in particular considering any adaptations to the WFD that may be required to facilitate the transition to molecular data.

Can heat waves change the trophic role of the world's most invasive crayfish? Diet shifts in Procambarus clarkii.

In the Mediterranean basin, the globally increasing temperatures are expected to be accompanied by longer heat waves. Commonly assumed to benefit cold-limited invasive alien species, these climatic changes may also change their feeding preferences, especially in the case of omnivorous ectotherms. We investigated heat wave effects on diet choice, growth and energy reserves in the invasive red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii. In laboratory experiments, we fed juvenile and adult crayfish on animal, plant or mixed diets and exposed them to a short or a long heat wave. We then measured crayfish survival, growth, body reserves and Fulton's condition index. Diet choices of the crayfish maintained on the mixed diet were estimated using stable isotopes (13C and 15N). The results suggest a decreased efficiency of carnivorous diets at higher temperatures, as juveniles fed on the animal diet were unable to maintain high growth rates in the long heat wave; and a decreased efficiency of herbivorous diets at lower temperatures, as juveniles in the cold accumulated less body reserves when fed on the plant diet. Heat wave treatments increased the assimilation of plant material, especially in juveniles, allowing them to sustain high growth rates in the long heat wave. Contrary to our expectations, crayfish performance decreased in the long heat wave, suggesting that Mediterranean summer heat waves may have negative effects on P. clarkii and that they are unlikely to boost its populations in this region. Although uncertain, it is possible that the greater assimilation of the plant diet resulted from changes in crayfish feeding preferences, raising the hypotheses that i) heat waves may change the predominant impacts of this keystone species and ii) that by altering species' trophic niches, climate change may alter the main impacts of invasive alien species.

Functional redundancy and sensitivity of fish assemblages in European rivers, lakes and estuarine ecosystems.

The impact of species loss on ecosystems functioning depends on the amount of trait similarity between species, i.e. functional redundancy, but it is also influenced by the order in which species are lost. Here we investigated redundancy and sensitivity patterns across fish assemblages in lakes, rivers and estuaries. Several scenarios of species extinction were simulated to determine whether the loss of vulnerable species (with high propensity of extinction when facing threats) causes a greater functional alteration than random extinction. Our results indicate that the functional redundancy tended to increase with species richness in lakes and rivers, but not in estuaries. We demonstrated that i) in the three systems, some combinations of functional traits are supported by non-redundant species, ii) rare species in rivers and estuaries support singular functions not shared by dominant species, iii) the loss of vulnerable species can induce greater functional alteration in rivers than in lakes and estuaries. Overall, the functional structure of fish assemblages in rivers is weakly buffered against species extinction because vulnerable species support singular functions. More specifically, a hotspot of functional sensitivity was highlighted in the Iberian Peninsula, which emphasizes the usefulness of quantitative criteria to determine conservation priorities.

Analysing the impact of multiple stressors in aquatic biomonitoring data: A 'cookbook' with applications in R.

Multiple stressors threaten biodiversity and ecosystem integrity, imposing new challenges to ecosystem management and restoration. Ecosystem managers are required to address and mitigate the impact of multiple stressors, yet the knowledge required to disentangle multiple-stressor effects is still incomplete. Experimental studies have advanced the understanding of single and combined stressor effects, but there is a lack of a robust analytical framework, to address the impact of multiple stressors based on monitoring data. Since 2000, the monitoring of Europe's waters has resulted in a vast amount of biological and environmental (stressor) data of about 120,000 water bodies. For many reasons, this data is rarely exploited in the multiple-stressor context, probably because of its rather heterogeneous nature: stressors vary and are mixed with broad-scale proxies of environmental stress (e.g. land cover), missing values and zero-inflated data limit the application of statistical methods and biological indicators are often aggregated (e.g. taxon richness) and do not respond stressor-specific. Here, we present a 'cookbook' to analyse the biological response to multiple stressors using data from biomonitoring schemes. Our 'cookbook' includes guidance for the analytical process and the interpretation of results. The 'cookbook' is accompanied by scripts, which allow the user to run a stepwise analysis based on his/her own data in R, an open-source language and environment for statistical computing and graphics. Using simulated and real data, we show that the recommended procedure is capable of identifying stressor hierarchy (importance) and interaction in large datasets. We recommend a minimum number of 150 independent observations and a minimum stressor gradient length of 75% (of the most relevant stressor's gradient in nature), to be able to reliably rank the stressor's importance, detect relevant interactions and estimate their standardised effect size. We conclude with a brief discussion of the advantages and limitations of this protocol.

Untangling the effects of multiple human stressors and their impacts on fish assemblages in European running waters.

This work addresses human stressors and their impacts on fish assemblages at pan-European scale by analysing single and multiple stressors and their interactions. Based on an extensive dataset with 3105 fish sampling sites, patterns of stressors, their combination and nature of interactions, i.e. synergistic, antagonistic and additive were investigated. Geographical distribution and patterns of seven human stressor variables, belonging to four stressor groups (hydrological-, morphological-, water quality- and connectivity stressors), were examined, considering both single and multiple stressor combinations. To quantify the stressors' ecological impact, a set of 22 fish metrics for various fish assemblage types (headwaters, medium gradient rivers, lowland rivers and Mediterranean streams) was analysed by comparing their observed and expected response to different stressors, both acting individually and in combination. Overall, investigated fish sampling sites are affected by 15 different stressor combinations, including 4 stressors acting individually and 11 combinations of two or more stressors; up to 4 stressor groups per fish sampling site occur. Stressor-response analysis shows divergent results among different stressor categories, even though a general trend of decreasing ecological integrity with increasing stressor quantity can be observed. Fish metrics based on density of species 'intolerant to water quality degradation' and 'intolerant to oxygen depletion" responded best to single and multiple stressors and their interactions. Interactions of stressors were additive (40%), synergistic (30%) or antagonistic (30%), emphasizing the importance to consider interactions in multi-stressor analyses. While antagonistic effects are only observed in headwaters and medium-gradient rivers, synergistic effects increase from headwaters over medium gradient rivers and Mediterranean streams to large lowland rivers. The knowledge gained in this work provides a basis for advanced investigations in European river basins and helps prioritizing further restoration and management actions.

Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems.

Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.

Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative effects on fish populations and assemblages.

Modelling stream-fish functional traits in reference conditions: regional and local environmental correlates.

Identifying the environmental gradients that control the functional structure of biological assemblages in reference conditions is fundamental to help river management and predict the consequences of anthropogenic stressors. Fish metrics (density of ecological guilds, and species richness) from 117 least disturbed stream reaches in several western Iberia river basins were modelled with generalized linear models in order to investigate the importance of regional- and local-scale abiotic gradients to variation in functional structure of fish assemblages. Functional patterns were primarily associated with regional features, such as catchment elevation and slope, rainfall, and drainage area. Spatial variations of fish guilds were thus associated with broad geographic gradients, showing (1) pronounced latitudinal patterns, affected mainly by climatic factors and topography, or (2) at the basin level, strong upstream-downstream patterns related to stream position in the longitudinal gradient. Maximum native species richness was observed in midsize streams in accordance with the river continuum concept. The findings of our study emphasized the need to use a multi-scale approach in order to fully assess the factors that govern the functional organization of biotic assemblages in 'natural' streams, as well as to improve biomonitoring and restoration of fluvial ecosystems.