Prediction of the burden of road traffic injuries in Iran by 2030: Prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years.

PURPOSE: Road traffic accidents pose a global challenge with substantial human and economic costs. Iran experiences a high incidence of road traffic injuries, leading to a significant burden on society. This study aims to predict the future burden of road traffic injuries in Iran until 2030, providing valuable insights for policy-making and interventions to improve road safety and reduce the associated human and economic costs. METHODS: This analytical study utilized time series models, specifically autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), to predict the burden of road traffic accidents by analyzing past data to identify patterns and trends in Iran until 2030. The required data related to prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were collected from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database and analyzed using R software and relevant modeling and statistical analysis packages. RESULTS: Both prediction models, ARIMA and ANNs indicate that the prevalence rates (per 100,000) of all road traffic injuries, except for motorcyclist road injuries which have an almost flat trend, remaining at around 430, increase by 2030. Based on estimations of both models, the rates of death and DALYs due to motor vehicle and pedestrian road traffic injuries decrease. For motor vehicle road injuries, estimated trends decrease to approximately 520 DALYs and 10 deaths. Also, for pedestrian road injuries these rates reached approximately 300 DALYs and 6 deaths, according to the models. For cyclists and other road traffic injuries, the predicted DALY rates by the ANN model increase to almost 50 and 8, while predictions conducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend, remaining at 40 and approximately 6.5. Moreover, these rates for the prediction of death rate by the ANN model increased to 0.6 and 0.1, while predictions conducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend, remaining at 0.43 and 0.07. According to the ANN model, the predicted rates of DALY and death for motorcyclists decrease to 100 and approximately 2.7, respectively. On the other hand, predictions made by the ARIMA model show a static trend, with rates remaining at 200 and approximately 3.2, respectively. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of road traffic injuries is predicted to increase, while the death and DALY rates of road traffic injuries show different patterns. Effective intervention programs and safety measures are necessary to prevent and reduce road traffic accidents. Different interventions should be designed and implemented specifically for different groups of pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and motor vehicle drivers.

Economic burden of breast cancer: a case of Southern Iran.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is one of the main causes of death from cancer around the world, imposing a significant economic burden on the families and healthcare system. The present study aimed at determining the economic burden of breast cancer in the patients referred to the medical centers in Fars province in southern Iran in 2021. METHODS: This cross-sectional study is a partial economic evaluation and a cost-of-illness study with a bottom-up and prevalence-based approach, conducted in Fars province in southern Iran in 2021 from the societal perspective. A total of 230 patients were randomly included in the study, and a researcher-made data collection form was used to collect the required data. The data on direct medical costs were collected using the information on patients' medical and financial records. On the other hand, the data on direct non-medical and indirect costs were obtained using self-reports by the patients or their companions. The Excel 2016 software was used to analyze the collected data. RESULTS: The results showed that the annual cost of each breast cancer patient in the studied sample was 11,979.09 USD in 2021. Direct medical costs accounted for the largest share of costs (70.69%, among which the cost of radiotherapy was the highest one. The economic burden of the disease in the country was estimated at 193,090,952 USD. CONCLUSIONS: In general, due to the high prevalence of breast cancer and the chronicity of this disease, its medical costs can impose a heavy economic burden on society, the health system, the insurance system, and patients. Thus, in order to reduce the costs, the following suggestions can be offered: the use of advanced radiotherapy techniques, increasing the insurance coverage of required services, establishing low-cost accommodation centers near medical centers for the patients and their companions, providing specialized medical services for the patients in towns, using the Internet and virtual space to follow up the treatment of the patients, and carrying out free screening programs and tests for faster diagnosis of the infected patients and susceptible or exposed people.

A health communication campaign for prevention of osteoporosis in rural elderly women.

BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis, as the most common metabolic disease and the leading cause of death among older people, affects more than 200 million women throughout the world. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of a health communication campaign on knowledge, attitude, and practice of older women towards prevention and control of osteoporosis. METHODS: In this multi-stage mixed methods study, 30 days' health communication campaign for prevention of osteoporosis was conducted on 60- 75-year-old women, in rural areas of Fasa, Iran. Subjects were divided into two groups, control (n = 103) and intervention (n = 98). Data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire and analyzed by SPSS 25.0. The significance level was set at < 0.05. RESULTS: Inter-group group analysis revealed that the mean scores of knowledge, attitude, and practice were not significantly different between the two groups before the intervention, but after the intervention, unlike the behavior (P = 0.569), mean scores of knowledge (p < 0.001) and attitude (p < 0.001) of the intervention group were significantly more than the control group. Intra-group comparisons showed that, unlike the control group, the mean scores of knowledge (p < 0.001), attitudes (p < 0.001), and behavior (P < 0.001) increased significantly in the intervention group. CONCLUSIONS: Health communication campaign is an effective way to change the knowledge and attitude and to a lesser extent the practice of the eldery toward prevention and control of osteoporosis.

Factors affecting the economic burden of breast cancer in southern Iran.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer in the world, and is associated with significant economic costs for patients and communities. Therefore, the information on the costs of the disease and the identification of its underlying factors will provide insights into designing effective interventions and reducing the costs. Thus, the present study aimed to identify the factors affecting the economic burden of breast cancer from all medical centers providing diagnostic and treatment services in southern Iran. METHODS: A list of factors affecting the economic burden of breast cancer was obtained based on the effective factors searched in the databases, including PubMed, ProQuest, Scopus, ISI Web of Science, SID, and Magiran, and the opinions of BC cancer specialists. Then, the data on 460 breast cancer patients was collected from March 2020 to March 2022. The relationship between the factors affecting Breast Cancer costs was analyzed using SPSS 13.0 software by the use of multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: The results of the multiple regression analysis showed that stages (P-value < 0.001), being an extreme user (p = 0.025), type of treatment center (P-value < 0.001), income (P-value < 0.001), chemotherapy side effects (P-value < 0.001), and distance to the nearest health center (P-value < 0.001) were important factors affecting the costs of breast cancer patients. CONCLUSIONS: According to the results, encouraging people to undergo annual screenings, increasing insurance coverage, assuring the patients about the desirability and adequacy of the provided medical services, deploying specialists in chemotherapy centers (especially nutritionists) to recommend special diets, and establishing cancer diagnostic and treatment centers in high-population cities could help reduce the costs of breast cancer patients.

The effect of a social cognitive theory-based educational intervention on nonsuicidal self-injury prevention in high school students: A randomized educational intervention trial.

INTRODUCTION: Nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) in adolescents is a growing public health concern, demanding preventive measures, particularly among high school students. Based on social cognitive theory (SCT), self-efficacy coupled with outcome expectations, social support, self-regulation, and behavioral intention, determine the likelihood of engaging in such a behavior. Thus, the present study was to investigate the effect of a SCT-based educational intervention on NSSI prevention in female high school students. METHODS: This randomized educational intervention trial was conducted on 191 female high school students, aged 15-17 years (15.95 ± 0.59) (viz. 99 individuals in intervention group and 92 controls). Intervention group attended five SCT-based educational intervention sessions concerning NSSI prevention. Data were then collected by three self-administered questionnaires. The first questionnaire was to measure demographic variables and the second one, intermediate outcome measure, was implemented to evaluate SCT constructs. The third questionnaire also measured NSSI (final outcome measure). Data were analyzed using SPSS software v.24. RESULTS: After controlling the pretest scores, the repeated-measure multivariate analysis of covariance revealed a significant time and group interaction in multivariate (F = 154.8, p < .001) and univariate analysis, which is in favor of the effectiveness of educational intervention on changing the mean scores of NSSI and all SCT constructs. SCT constructs explained 41% of the variance in conforming intention for NSSI prevention (p < .001). CONCLUSION: The study findings were in favor of effectiveness of an SCT-based educational intervention in intention of preventing NSSI.

Investigating the short-term effects of using full-body hospital personal protective equipment and changes in physical workload intensity on human physiological and cognitive performance.

The present study investigated the short-term effects of using Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and physical workload intensity on human physiological and cognitive performance among 21 males and 19 females. PPE1 consisted of a medical coverall and surgical mask, while PPE2 consisted of impermeable full-body coverall, shoe covers, latex gloves, N95 mask, and face shield. Objective assessments were heart rate, energy expenditure, core body temperature, clothing microclimate temperature and humidity, and cognitive performance were the continuous performance test and N-Back test. Subjective assessments included thermal sensation, perceived fatigue/skin wetness/clothing moisture. Using PPE2 and increased workload intensity significantly increased the values of all physiological parameters and the subjective ratings of fatigue, thermal sensation, skin wetness, and clothing moisture. Moreover, the participants' cognitive performance was not affected by the type of PPE.Practitioner summary: Healthcare workers are at the highest risk in the fight against pandemics. Therefore, these people are required to use personal protective equipment. Using this equipment may have difficulties. The results show physiological strain and higher subjective ratings associated with using full-body hospital PPE and increased physical workload.

Comparison of laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based WHO cardiovascular disease risk charts: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Determining the risk of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is a necessity for timely preventive interventions in high-risk groups. However, laboratory testing may be impractical in countries with limited resources. This study aimed at comparison and assessment of the agreement between laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based WHO risk charts models. METHODS: This study was performed using the baseline data of 8138 participants in the pars cohort study who had no history of CVD and stroke. The updated 2019 WHO model was used to determine the 10-year fatal and non-fatal CVD risks. In general, there are two types of new WHO risk prediction models for CVD. The scores were determined based on age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP), and total cholesterol for the laboratory-based model and age, sex, smoking status, SBP, and Body Mass Index (BMI) for the non-laboratory-based model. The agreement of these two models was determined via kappa statistics for the classified risk (low: < 10%, moderate: 10-< 20%, high: ≥ 20%). Correlation coefficients (r) and scatter plots was used for correlation between scores. RESULTS: The results revealed very strong correlation coefficients for all sex and age groups (r = 0.84 for males < 60 years old, 0.93 for males ≥ 60 years old, 0.85 for females < 60 years old, and 0.88 for females ≥ 60 years old). In the laboratory-based model, low, moderate, and high risks were 76.10%, 18.17%, and 5.73%, respectively. These measures were respectively obtained as 77.00%, 18.08%, and 4.92% in the non-laboratory-based model. Based on risk classification, the agreement was substantial for males < 60 years old and for both males and females aged ≥ 60 years (kappa values: 0.79 for males < 60 years old, 0.65 for males ≥ 60 years old, and 0.66 for females ≥ 60 years old) and moderate for females < 60 years old (kappa = 0.46). CONCLUSIONS: The non-laboratory-based risk prediction model, which is simple, inexpensive, and non-invasive, classifies individuals almost identically to the laboratory-based model. Therefore, in countries with limited resources, these two models can be used interchangeably.

Chronic kidney disease and its health-related factors: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a non-communicable disease that includes a range of different physiological disorders that are associated with abnormal renal function and progressive decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR). This study aimed to investigate the associations of several behavioral and health-related factors with CKD in Iranian patients. METHODS: A hospital-based case-control study was conducted on 700 participants (350 cases and 350 controls). Logistic regression was applied to measure the association between the selected factors and CKD. RESULTS: The mean age of cases and controls were 59.6 ± 12.4 and 58.9 ± 12.2 respectively (p = 0.827). The results of multiple logistic regression suggested that many factors including low birth weight (OR yes/no = 4.07, 95%CI: 1.76-9.37, P = 0.001), history of diabetes (OR yes/no = 3.57, 95%CI: 2.36-5.40, P = 0.001), history of kidney diseases (OR yes/no = 3.35, 95%CI: 2.21-5.00, P = 0.001) and history of chemotherapy (OR yes/no = 2.18, 95%CI: 1.12-4.23, P = 0.02) are associated with the risk of CKD. CONCLUSIONS: The present study covered a large number of potential risk/ preventive factors altogether. The results highlighted the importance of collaborative monitoring of kidney function among patients with the above conditions.

Which criteria is a better predictor of ICU admission in trauma patients? An artificial neural network approach.

PURPOSE: One of the most critical concerns in the intensive care unit (ICU) section is identifying the best criteria for entering patients to this part. This study aimed to predict the best compatible criteria for entering trauma patients in the ICU section. METHOD: The present study was a historical cohort study. The data were collected from 2448 trauma patients referring to Shahid Rajaee Hospital between January 2015 and January 2017 in Shiraz, Iran. The artificial neural network (ANN) models with cross-validation and logistic regression (LR) with a backward method was used for data analysis. The final analysis was performed on a total of 958 patients who were transferred to the ICU section. RESULTS: Based on the present results, the motor component of the GCS score at each cutoff point had the highest importance. The results also showed better performance for the AUC and accuracy rate for ANN compared with LR. CONCLUSION: The most critical indicators in predicting the optimal use of ICU services in this study were the Motor component of the GCS. Results revealed that the ANN had a better performance than the LR in predicting the main outcomes of the traumatic patients in both the accuracy and AUC index. Trauma section surgeons and ICU specialists will benefit from this study's results and can assist them in making decisions to predict the patient outcomes before entering the ICU.

Employing a three-stage procedure to develop a sizing system for medical gloves.

There is a need for gloves that are designed based on the dimensions of the hand of each society because the proper size is a key factor that affects performance. This study aimed to design and develop a glove-sizing system for Iranian healthcare workers using anthropometric data. This study was conducted on a sample including 540 healthcare workers across Iran classified by ethnicity and gender. Thirty-three dimensions were measured as the anthropometric data. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and clustering analysis were used to create classifications for glove sizes. The most effective dimensions in defining the hand sizes of Iranian healthcare workers were middle finger length and the handbreadth. The designed six-size system covered 94% of the sample. This system can be used to design suitable gloves for Iranians. The sizes presented can be used to compare size differences in different communities. Practitioner summary: In this study, an attempt was made to design a sizing system with maximum coverage for medical gloves using statistical analysis methods and hand anthropometric dimensions of Iranian healthcare workers. The method of this study can be used in other communities as well for improving sizing systems.Abbreviations: PCA: Principal Component Analysis; GSS: Glove Sizing Systems; TEM: Technical error of measurement; R: Reliability coefficient; KMO: The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin; PC1: The first principal component; PC2: The second principal component; FCMC: Fuzzy c-means clustering; XS: Very small; S: Small; SM: Medium small; LM: Medium large; L: Large; Xl: Very large.

Comparison of the effect of mothers and students' education on the promotion of oral health behaviours in female students, using the health belief model.

BACKGROUND: Oral diseases are considered an important health challenge around the world, especially among children. This study aimed to compare the effects of mothers and students' education on female students' oral health behaviours. METHODS: This three-arm randomized controlled educational trial was conducted on 261 fifth- and sixth-grade female students. The participants were selected and divided into two intervention groups (students' mothers and students) and a control group through simple random sampling. The intervention included four 60-min and two 90-min education sessions for the students and their mothers, respectively. The data were analysed using the SPSS 22 software. RESULTS: The results revealed a significant increase in the mean scores of knowledge (p < 0.001), self-efficacy (p = 0.038), and cues to action (p < 0.001) in the students' intervention group. However, in the students-mothers' group the mean score of knowledge significantly increased (p < 0.001), and perceived barriers significantly decreased (p = 0.001). After the intervention, a significant difference was observed among the three study groups regarding the mean scores of knowledge (p < 0.001), perceived susceptibility (p = 0.005), perceived severity (p = 0.005), perceived benefits (p = 0.011), cues to action (p < 0.001) and brushing and flossing behaviours (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this study, the mothers' education did not have any additional effects on the students' education. It seems that, in underprivileged communities where mothers had a low level of education, it might be better for oral health education to focus more on the students.

Developing a Decision Aid Tool for selecting pen-paper observational ergonomics techniques: a quasi-experimental study.

BACKGROUND: A significant error that may occur during ergonomic risk assessment and invalidate assessment reliability corresponds to technique selection. This study aimed to develop a new tool called the Decision Aid Tool (DAT) to reduce pen-paper observational technique selection errors. METHODS: This quasi-experiment before-after study was performed in three phases. In the first phase, the participants' skills in technique selection were examined by showing them 20 videos of different single-task jobs. In the second phase, the DAT was designed using pen-paper observational techniques. Finally, in the third phase, 115 occupational health specialists included in the study through purposive sampling of experts evaluated the tool's efficacy. RESULTS: The results of the first phase showed that 62% of participants made an error in selecting the proper technique. The mean and standard deviation scores from the first and third phases were 11.4 ± 6.59 and 39.01 ±1.89, respectively. The mean scores increased significantly after using DAT, and 97.5% of participants could correctly select task techniques. CONCLUSIONS: The efficacy of DAT was confirmed in a quasi-experimental before-and-after study. Using DAT increases the participants' ability to choose the correct technique. The DAT can be functional for practitioners to select the pen-paper observational techniques correctly under the purpose of assessment, the body areas, and the characteristics of the task to be assessed.

Predicting the natural history of metabolic syndrome with a Markov-system dynamic model: a novel approach.

BACKGROUND: Markov system dynamic (MSD) model has rarely been used in medical studies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of MSD model in prediction of metabolic syndrome (MetS) natural history. METHODS: Data gathered by Tehran Lipid & Glucose Study (TLGS) over a 16-year period from a cohort of 12,882 people was used to conduct the analyses. First, transition probabilities (TPs) between 12 components of MetS by Markov as well as control and failure rates of relevant interventions were calculated. Then, the risk of developing each component by 2036 was predicted once by a Markov model and then by a MSD model. Finally, the two models were validated and compared to assess their performance and advantages by using mean differences, mean SE of matrices, fit of the graphs, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov two-sample test as well as R2 index as model fitting index. RESULTS: Both Markov and MSD models were shown to be adequate for prediction of MetS trends. But the MSD model predictions were closer to the real trends when comparing the output graphs. The MSD model was also, comparatively speaking, more successful in the assessment of mean differences (less overestimation) and SE of the general matrix. Moreover, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov two-sample showed that the MSD model produced equal distributions of real and predicted samples (p = 0.808 for MSD model and p = 0.023 for Markov model). Finally, R2 for the MSD model was higher than Markov model (73% for the Markov model and 85% for the MSD model). CONCLUSION: The MSD model showed a more realistic natural history than the Markov model which highlights the importance of paying attention to this method in therapeutic and preventive procedures.

Dynamic behavior of metabolic syndrome progression: a comprehensive systematic review on recent discoveries.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of the natural history of metabolic syndrome (MetS) has an important role in clarifying the pathways of this disorder. OBJECTIVE: This study purposed to provide a rational statistical view of MetS progression pathway. METHODS: We performed a systematic review in accordance with the PRISMA Statement until September 2019 in the Medline/PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science and Google Scholar databases. From the 68 found studies, 12 studies were eligible for review finally. RESULTS: The selected studies were divided in 2 groups with Markovian and non-Markovian approach. With the Markov approach, the most important trigger for the MetS chain was dyslipidemia with overweight/obesity in the under-50 and with hypertension in the over-50 age group, where overweight/obesity was more important in women and hypertension in men. In non-Markov approach, the most common trigger was hypertension. Transition probability (TP) from no component to MetS were higher in all Markovian studies in men than in women. In the Markovians the combination of dyslipidemia with overweight/obesity and in non-Markovians, hyperglycemia with overweight/obesity were the most common combinations. Finally, the most important components, which predict the MetS, were 2-component states and hyperglycemia in Markovian approach and overweight/obesity in non-Markovians. CONCLUSIONS: Among the components of the MetS, dyslipidemia and hypertension seems to be the main developer components in natural history of the MetS. Also, in this chain, the most likely combination over time that determines the future status of people seems to be the combination of dyslipidemia with obesity or hyperglycemia. However, more research is needed.

Association of Routine Hepatitis B Vaccination and Other Effective Factors with Hepatitis B Virus Infection: 25 Years Since the Introduction of National Hepatitis B Vaccination in Iran.

Background: One of the main health problems in the world is hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Vaccination and other factors can affect HBV infection. As various effective factors have been reported in different regions and studies, this study aimed to investigate the association between HBV infection and routine vaccination and other effective factors 25 years since the launch of the national vaccination program in Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study, conducted in 2017 in Shiraz (Iran), investigated factors such as demographic variables such as gender, education, and occupation, vaccination status, and the potential risk factors for HBV infection. Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and anti-hepatitis B core antibody (HBc Ab) tests were performed to determine HBV infection status. The data were analyzed using R software (version 3.5.2), using multivariate logistic regressions and machine learning methods. The level of significance was considered below 0.05. Results: A total of 2720 individuals were enrolled in the study (194 cases with HBV infection). Based on the logistic regression analyses, factors such as a family history of the disease (OR=2.53, P<0.001), vaccination (OR=0.57, P=0.004), a history of high-risk behaviors (OR=1.48, P=0.022), and occupation (OR=1.80, P=0.035) were significantly associated with HBV infection. Based on the conditional tree method, a family history of infection (P<0.001) and vaccination (P=0.023) were two important factors in classifying individuals for HBV infection. Conclusion: Based on the different methods applied in this study, HBV infection was affected by factors such as a family history of the disease, national HBV vaccination, and occupation. It appears that HBV vaccination, launched by the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education in 1993, has reduced HBV infection.

Factors Affecting Insulin Compliance in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes in South Iran, 2017: We Are Faced with Insulin Phobia.

BACKGROUND: Many patients with type 2 diabetes are uncontrolled on maximum oral treatment. The early introduction of insulin can lower diabetes-related complications. This study aimed to evaluate type 2 diabetes patients' demographic characteristics, clinical factors, and attitude toward insulin therapy initiation. METHODS: In the present cross-sectional study, 457 patients were selected from 12 diabetes clinics in the southern Iranian city of Shiraz in 2017. Adult patients (>30 y) with type 2 diabetes indicated to use insulin for the first time (insulin-naive) were asked to complete a researcher-designed questionnaire. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19. The relationships between insulin and the tendency to use insulin, demographic characteristics, and clinical data were evaluated using the χ2 or t test and logistic regression. The significance level was considered at 0.05. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 55.16±8.76 years and 67.4% were female. Despite physician recommendations, 60.2% of the patients were disinclined to use insulin. Those unwilling to initiate insulin therapy had more misconceptions. In the multivariate analysis, the chances of insulin noncompliance were increased by 4.63-fold among the patients without supplementary insurance (P<0.001), by 2.38-fold among those with a nondiabetic diet (P=0.002), and by 6.75-fold among the illiterate ones (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Based on the results, the factors affecting insulin noncompliance in our insulin-naive patients with type 2 diabetes included insurance coverage, illiteracy, and nondiabetic regimens as well as misconceptions about and irrational fear of insulin injection. Overall, our results indicate the need for further education and financial support for patients and health staff.

Age at natural menopause and its determinants in female population of Kharameh cohort study: Comparison of regression, conditional tree and forests.

BACKGROUND: Natural menopause is defined as the permanent cessation of menstruation that occurs after 12 consecutive months of amenorrhea without any obvious pathological or physiological cause. The age of this phenomenon has been reported to be associated with several health outcomes. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the Age at Natural Menopause (ANM) and to identify reproductive and demographic factors affecting ANM. METHODS: This cross-sectional, population-based study was conducted on 2517 post-menopausal women aged 40-70 years participating in the first phase of the PERSIAN cohort study of Kharameh, Iran, during 2014-2017. To more accurately detect the determinants of ANM, we applied multiple linear regression beside some machine learning algorithms including conditional tree, conditional forest, and random forest. Then, the fitness of these methods was compared using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: The mean±SD of ANM was 48.95±6.13. Both applied forests provided more accurate results and identified more predictors. However, according to the final comparison, the conditional forest was the most accurate method which recognized that more pregnancies, longer breastfeeding, Fars ethnicity, and urbanization have the greatest impact on later ANM. CONCLUSIONS: This study found a wide range of reproductive and demographic factors affecting ANM. Considering our findings in decision-making can reduce the complications related to this phenomenon and, consequently, improve the quality of life of post-menopausal women.

Age at natural menopause and development of chronic diseases in the female population of Kharameh, Iran: A historical cohort study.

Background and Aims: Declines in estradiol levels after menopause have been reported to be associated with several health outcomes. This study aimed to determine the effect of age at natural menopause (ANM) on some of the most common chronic diseases. Methods: This historical cohort study was performed on 2636 postmenopausal women aged 40-70 years participating in phase one of the PERSIAN cohort study in Kharameh, Iran, during 2015-2017. The effect of early (<45 years), intermediate (45-53 years), and late menopause (>53 years) on chronic diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart diseases, stroke, thyroid diseases, and depression was assessed using classic logistic regression for diseases with an incidence rate of more than 10% and Firth's logistic regression for diseases with an incidence of less than this amount. Results: The mean age of women was 53.48 ± 8.59. Respectively, early and intermediate menopause was associated with ischemic heart disease (odds ratio [OR = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-2.42; p = 0.020), (OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.13-2.21; p = 0.008) and thyroid diseases (OR = 3.10, 95% CI: 1.64-6.24; p < 0.001), (OR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.02-3.57; p = 0.042). furthermore, early menopause was a risk factor for diabetes (OR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.07-2.00; p = 0.018), depression (OR = 4.79, 95% CI: 2.20-11.79; p = <0.001) and stroke (OR = 3.00, 95% CI: 1.08-9.32; p = 0.034). Conclusions: In this study, women with diabetes, ischemic heart diseases, stroke, thyroid disorders, and depression had a younger ANM compared to their healthy counterparts. Therefore, applying appropriate strategies to postpone the age of menopause, can reduce the incidence of these types of chronic diseases.

Factors associated with late initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Iran's HIV/AIDS surveillance data.

Early initiation of Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) in HIV patients is essential for effectively suppressing the viral load and prognosis. This study utilized National HIV/AIDS Surveillance Data in Iran to identify factors associated factors with the duration to initiate ART. This hybrid cross-sectional historical cohort study was conducted on Iran's National HIV/AIDS Surveillance Data from 2001 to 2019. Sociodemographic characteristics, route of transmission, HIV diagnosis date, and ART initiation date were collected. Multivariable linear and quantile regression models were employed to analyze the duration to initiate ART by considering predictor variables. This study included 17,062 patients (mean age 34.14 ± 10.77 years, 69.49% males). Multivariate quantile regression coefficients varied across different distributions of the dependent variable (i.e., duration to initiate ART) for several independent variables. Generally, male gender, injecting drug use (IDU), and having an HIV-positive spouse were significantly associated with an increased duration to initiate ART (p < 0.05). However, a significant decrease was observed in older patients, those with a university level education, men who had sex with men (MSM), and patients diagnosed after 2016 (p < 0.05). Despite improvements in the duration to initiate ART after implementing the WHO's 2016 program in Iran, various sociodemographic groups were still vulnerable to delayed ART initiation in the region. Therefore, programs including early testing, early ART initiation, active care, educational and cultural interventions, and appropriate incentives are required for these groups.