Geospatial joint modeling of vector and parasite serology to microstratify malaria transmission.

The World Health Organization identifies a strong surveillance system for malaria and its mosquito vector as an essential pillar of the malaria elimination agenda. Anopheles salivary antibodies are emerging biomarkers of exposure to mosquito bites that potentially overcome sensitivity and logistical constraints of traditional entomological surveys. Using samples collected by a village health volunteer network in 104 villages in Southeast Myanmar during routine surveillance, the present study employs a Bayesian geostatistical modeling framework, incorporating climatic and environmental variables together with Anopheles salivary antigen serology, to generate spatially continuous predictive maps of Anopheles biting exposure. Our maps quantify fine-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity in Anopheles salivary antibody seroprevalence (ranging from 9 to 99%) that serves as a proxy of exposure to Anopheles bites and advances current static maps of only Anopheles occurrence. We also developed an innovative framework to perform surveillance of malaria transmission. By incorporating antibodies against the vector and the transmissible form of malaria (sporozoite) in a joint Bayesian geostatistical model, we predict several foci of ongoing transmission. In our study, we demonstrate that antibodies specific for Anopheles salivary and sporozoite antigens are a logistically feasible metric with which to quantify and characterize heterogeneity in exposure to vector bites and malaria transmission. These approaches could readily be scaled up into existing village health volunteer surveillance networks to identify foci of residual malaria transmission, which could be targeted with supplementary interventions to accelerate progress toward elimination.

Tafenoquine following G6PD screening versus primaquine for the treatment of vivax malaria in Brazil: A cost-effectiveness analysis using a transmission model.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission modelling has demonstrated the potential impact of semiquantitative glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing and treatment with single-dose tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax radical cure but has not investigated the associated costs. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of P. vivax treatment with tafenoquine after G6PD testing using a transmission model. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We explored the cost-effectiveness of using tafenoquine after G6PD screening as compared to usual practice (7-day low-dose primaquine (0.5 mg/kg/day) without G6PD screening) in Brazil using a 10-year time horizon with 5% discounting considering 4 scenarios: (1) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 66.7% primaquine treatment adherence; (2) tafenoquine for adults and children aged >2 years assuming 66.7% primaquine adherence; (3) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 90% primaquine adherence; and (4) tafenoquine for adults only assuming 30% primaquine adherence. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated by dividing the incremental costs by the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. These were compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of US$7,800 for Brazil, and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. All 4 scenarios were cost-effective in the base case analysis using this WTP threshold with ICERs ranging from US$154 to US$1,836. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the results were most sensitive to severity and mortality due to vivax malaria, the lifetime and number of semiquantitative G6PD analysers needed, cost per malaria episode and per G6PD test strips, and life expectancy. All scenarios had a 100% likelihood of being cost-effective at the WTP threshold. The main limitations of this study are due to parameter uncertainty around our cost estimates for low transmission settings, the costs of G6PD screening, and the severity of vivax malaria. CONCLUSIONS: In our modelling study that incorporated impact on transmission, tafenoquine prescribed after a semiquantitative G6PD testing was highly likely to be cost-effective in Brazil. These results demonstrate the potential health and economic importance of ensuring safe and effective radical cure.

Handling missing data when estimating causal effects with targeted maximum likelihood estimation.

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is increasingly used for doubly robust causal inference, but how missing data should be handled when using TMLE with data-adaptive approaches is unclear. Based on data (1992-1998) from the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study, we conducted a simulation study to evaluate 8 missing-data methods in this context: complete-case analysis, extended TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model, the missing covariate missing indicator method, and 5 multiple imputation (MI) approaches using parametric or machine-learning models. We considered 6 scenarios that varied in terms of exposure/outcome generation models (presence of confounder-confounder interactions) and missingness mechanisms (whether outcome influenced missingness in other variables and presence of interaction/nonlinear terms in missingness models). Complete-case analysis and extended TMLE had small biases when outcome did not influence missingness in other variables. Parametric MI without interactions had large bias when exposure/outcome generation models included interactions. Parametric MI including interactions performed best in bias and variance reduction across all settings, except when missingness models included a nonlinear term. When choosing a method for handling missing data in the context of TMLE, researchers must consider the missingness mechanism and, for MI, compatibility with the analysis method. In many settings, a parametric MI approach that incorporates interactions and nonlinearities is expected to perform well.

Evaluation of a Bayesian hierarchical pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for predicting parasitological outcomes in Phase 2 studies of new antimalarial drugs.

The rise of multidrug-resistant malaria requires accelerated development of novel antimalarial drugs. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) models relate blood antimalarial drug concentrations with the parasite-time profile to inform dosing regimens. We performed a simulation study to assess the utility of a Bayesian hierarchical mechanistic PK-PD model for predicting parasite-time profiles for a Phase 2 study of a new antimalarial drug, cipargamin. We simulated cipargamin concentration- and malaria parasite-profiles based on a Phase 2 study of eight volunteers who received cipargamin 7 days after inoculation with malaria parasites. The cipargamin profiles were generated from a two-compartment PK model and parasite profiles from a previously published biologically informed PD model. One thousand PK-PD data sets of eight patients were simulated, following the sampling intervals of the Phase 2 study. The mechanistic PK-PD model was incorporated in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, and the parameters were estimated. Population PK model parameters describing absorption, distribution, and clearance were estimated with minimal bias (mean relative bias ranged from 1.7% to 8.4%). The PD model was fitted to the parasitaemia profiles in each simulated data set using the estimated PK parameters. Posterior predictive checks demonstrate that our PK-PD model adequately captures the simulated PD profiles. The bias of the estimated population average PD parameters was low-moderate in magnitude. This simulation study demonstrates the viability of our PK-PD model to predict parasitological outcomes in Phase 2 volunteer infection studies. This work will inform the dose-effect relationship of cipargamin, guiding decisions on dosing regimens to be evaluated in Phase 3 trials.

Ferric carboxymaltose versus standard-of-care oral iron to treat second-trimester anaemia in Malawian pregnant women: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia affects 46% of pregnancies in Africa; oral iron is recommended by WHO but uptake and adherence are suboptimal. We tested a single dose of a modern intravenous iron formulation, ferric carboxymaltose, for anaemia treatment in Malawian pregnant women. METHODS: In this open-label, individually randomised controlled trial, we enrolled women with a singleton pregnancy of 13-26 weeks' gestation in primary care and outpatient settings across two regions in southern Malawi. Women were eligible if they had capillary haemoglobin of less than 10·0 g/dL and negative malaria rapid diagnostic test. Participants were randomised by sealed envelope 1:1. Assessors for efficacy outcomes (laboratory parameters and birthweight) were masked to intervention; participants and study nurses were not masked. Participants were given ferric carboxymaltose up to 1000 mg (given once at enrolment in an outpatient primary care setting), or standard of care (60 mg elemental iron twice daily for 90 days), along with intermittent preventive malaria treatment. The primary maternal outcome was anaemia at 36 weeks' gestation. The primary neonatal outcome was birthweight. Analyses were performed in the intention-to-treat population for mothers and liveborn neonates, according to their randomisation group. Safety outcomes included incidence of adverse events during infusion and all adverse events from randomisation to 4 weeks' post partum. The trial is registered with ANZCTR, ACTRN12618001268235. The trial has completed follow-up. FINDINGS: Between Nov 12, 2018, and March 2, 2021, 21 258 women were screened, and 862 randomly assigned to ferric carboxymaltose (n=430) or standard of care (n=432). Ferric carboxymaltose did not reduce anaemia prevalence at 36 weeks' gestation compared with standard of care (179 [52%] of 341 in the ferric carboxymaltose group vs 189 [57%] of 333 in the standard of care group; prevalence ratio [PR] 0·92, 95% CI 0·81 to 1·06; p=0·27). Anaemia prevalence was numerically lower in mothers randomly assigned to ferric carboxymaltose compared with standard of care at all timepoints, although significance was only observed at 4 weeks' post-treatment (PR 0·91 [0·85 to 0·97]). Birthweight did not differ between groups (mean difference -3·1 g [-75·0 to 68·9, p=0·93). There were no infusion-related serious adverse events or differences in adverse events by any organ class (including malaria; ≥1 adverse event: ferric carboxymaltose 183 [43%] of 430 vs standard of care 170 [39%] of 432; risk ratio 1·08 [0·92 to 1·27]; p=0·34). INTERPRETATION: In this malaria-endemic sub-Saharan African setting, treatment of anaemic pregnant women with ferric carboxymaltose was safe but did not reduce anaemia prevalence at 36 weeks' gestation or increase birthweight. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-010612).

Primaquine radical cure in patients with Plasmodium falciparum malaria in areas co-endemic for P falciparum and Plasmodium vivax (PRIMA): a multicentre, open-label, superiority randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In areas co-endemic for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum there is an increased risk of P vivax parasitaemia following P falciparum malaria. Radical cure is currently only recommended for patients presenting with P vivax malaria. Expanding the indication for radical cure to patients presenting with P falciparum malaria could reduce their risk of subsequent P vivax parasitaemia. METHODS: We did a multicentre, open-label, superiority randomised controlled trial in five health clinics in Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Ethiopia. In Bangladesh and Indonesia, patients were excluded if they were younger than 1 year, whereas in Ethiopia patients were excluded if they were younger than 18 years. Patients with uncomplicated P falciparum monoinfection who had fever or a history of fever in the 48 h preceding clinic visit were eligible for enrolment and were required to have a glucose-6-dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity of 70% or greater. Patients received blood schizontocidal treatment (artemether-lumefantrine in Ethiopia and Bangladesh and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in Indonesia) and were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either high-dose short-course oral primaquine (intervention arm; total dose 7 mg/kg over 7 days) or standard care (standard care arm; single dose oral primaquine of 0·25 mg/kg). Random assignment was done by an independent statistician in blocks of eight by use of sealed envelopes. All randomly assigned and eligible patients were included in the primary and safety analyses. The per-protocol analysis excluded those who did not complete treatment or had substantial protocol violations. The primary endpoint was the incidence risk of P vivax parasitaemia on day 63. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03916003. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2019, and March 14, 2022, a total of 500 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned, and 495 eligible patients were included in the intention-to-treat analysis (246 intervention and 249 control). The incidence risk of P vivax parasitaemia at day 63 was 11·0% (95% CI 7·5-15·9) in the standard care arm compared with 2·5% (1·0-5·9) in the intervention arm (hazard ratio 0·20, 95% CI 0·08-0·51; p=0·0009). The effect size differed with blood schizontocidal treatment and site. Routine symptom reporting on day 2 and day 7 were similar between groups. In the first 42 days, there were a total of four primaquine-related adverse events reported in the standard care arm and 26 in the intervention arm; 132 (92%) of all 143 adverse events were mild. There were two serious adverse events in the intervention arm, which were considered unrelated to the study drug. None of the patients developed severe anaemia (defined as haemoglobin <5 g/dL). INTERPRETATION: In patients with a G6PD activity of 70% or greater, high-dose short-course primaquine was safe and relatively well tolerated and reduced the risk of subsequent P vivax parasitaemia within 63 days by five fold. Universal radical cure therefore potentially offers substantial clinical, public health, and operational benefits, but these benefits will vary with endemic setting. FUNDING: Australian Academy of Science Regional Collaborations Program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Health and Medical Research Council.

Benefits and Risks of Iron Interventions in Infants in Rural Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Universal provision of iron supplements (drops or syrup) or multiple micronutrient powders to young children in low-to-middle-income countries where anemia is prevalent is recommended by the World Health Organization and widely implemented. The functional benefits and safety of these interventions are unclear. METHODS: We conducted a three-group, double-blind, double-dummy, individually randomized, placebo-controlled trial to assess the immediate and medium-term benefits and risks of 3 months of daily supplementation with iron syrup or iron-containing multiple micronutrient powders, as compared with placebo, in 8-month-old children in rural Bangladesh. The primary outcome was cognitive development, as assessed by the cognitive composite score on the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, third edition, immediately after completion of the assigned 3-month regimen; scores range from 55 to 145, with higher scores indicating better cognitive performance. Secondary outcomes included the cognitive composite score at 9 months after completion of the assigned regimen; behavioral, language, and motor development, as well as growth and hematologic markers, immediately after completion and at 9 months after completion; and safety. RESULTS: We randomly assigned 3300 infants to receive iron syrup (1101 infants), multiple micronutrient powders (1099), or placebo (1100) daily. After completion of the assigned 3-month regimen, no apparent effect on the cognitive composite score was observed with iron syrup as compared with placebo (mean between-group difference in change in score from baseline, -0.30 points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.08 to 0.48) or with multiple micronutrient powders as compared with placebo (mean between-group difference in change in score from baseline, 0.23 points; 95% CI, -0.55 to 1.00). No apparent effect on any other developmental or growth outcome was observed immediately after completion of the assigned regimen or at 9 months after completion. At 9 months after completion of the assigned regimen, the prevalences of anemia, iron deficiency, and iron deficiency anemia increased in all three trial groups but remained lower among the children who received iron syrup or multiple micronutrient powders than among those who received placebo. The risk of serious adverse events and incidence of symptoms of infection were similar in the three trial groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this trial involving infants in Bangladesh, 3 months of daily supplementation with iron syrup or multiple micronutrient powders did not appear to have an effect on child development or other functional outcomes as compared with placebo. (Funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; BRISC Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12617000660381.).

Effectiveness of a telehealth-delivered clinician-supported exercise and weight loss program for hip osteoarthritis - protocol for the Better Hip randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Hip osteoarthritis (OA) is a leading cause of chronic pain and disability worldwide. Self-management is vital with education, exercise and weight loss core recommended treatments. However, evidence-practice gaps exist, and service models that increase patient accessibility to clinicians who can support lifestyle management are needed. The primary aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of a telehealth-delivered clinician-supported exercise and weight loss program (Better Hip) on the primary outcomes of hip pain on walking and physical function at 6 months, compared with an information-only control for people with hip OA. METHODS: A two-arm, parallel-design, superiority pragmatic randomised controlled trial. 212 members from a health insurance fund aged 45 years and over, with painful hip OA will be recruited. Participants will be randomly allocated to receive: i) Better Hip; or ii) web-based information only (control). Participants randomised to the Better Hip program will have six videoconferencing physiotherapist consultations for education about OA, prescription of individualised home-based strengthening and physical activity programs, behaviour change support, and facilitation of other self-management strategies. Those with a body mass index > 27 kg/m2, aged < 80 years and no specific health conditions, will also be offered six videoconferencing dietitian consultations to undertake a weight loss program. Participants in the control group will be provided with similar educational information about managing hip OA via a custom website. All participants will be reassessed at 6 and 12 months. Primary outcomes are hip pain on walking and physical function. Secondary outcomes include measures of pain; hip function; weight; health-related quality of life; physical activity levels; global change in hip problem; willingness to undergo hip replacement surgery; rates of hip replacement; and use of oral pain medications. A health economic evaluation at 12 months will be conducted and reported separately. DISCUSSION: Findings will determine whether a telehealth-delivered clinician-supported lifestyle management program including education, exercise/physical activity and, for those with overweight or obesity, weight loss, is more effective than information only in people with hip OA. Results will inform the implementation of such programs to increase access to core recommended treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12622000461796).

Antibody to Plasmodium falciparum Variant Surface Antigens, var Gene Transcription, and ABO Blood Group in Children With Severe or Uncomplicated Malaria.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies to variant surface antigens (VSAs) such as Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) may vary with malaria severity. The influence of ABO blood group on antibody development is not understood. METHODS: Immunoglobulin G antibodies to VSAs in Papua New Guinean children with severe (n = 41) or uncomplicated (n = 30) malaria were measured by flow cytometry using homologous P falciparum isolates. Isolates were incubated with ABO-matched homologous and heterologous acute and convalescent plasma. RNA was used to assess var gene transcription. RESULTS: Antibodies to homologous, but not heterologous, isolates were boosted in convalescence. The relationship between antibody and severity varied by blood group. Antibodies to VSAs were similar in severe and uncomplicated malaria at presentation, higher in severe than uncomplicated malaria in convalescence, and higher in children with blood group O than other children. Six var gene transcripts best distinguished severe from uncomplicated malaria, including UpsA and 2 CIDRα1 domains. CONCLUSIONS: ABO blood group may influence antibody acquisition to VSAs and susceptibility to severe malaria. Children in Papua New Guinea showed little evidence of acquisition of cross-reactive antibodies following malaria. Var gene transcripts in Papua New Guinean children with severe malaria were similar to those reported from Africa.

An artesunate pharmacometric model to explain therapeutic responses in falciparum malaria.

BACKGROUND: The artemisinins are potent and widely used antimalarial drugs that are eliminated rapidly. A simple concentration-effect pharmacometric model does not explain why dosing more frequently than once daily fails to augment parasite clearance and improve therapeutic responses in vivo. Artemisinins can induce a temporary non-replicative or 'dormant' drug refractory state in Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites which may explain recrudescences observed in clinical trials despite full drug susceptibility, but whether it explains the dosing-response relationship is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To propose a revised model of antimalarial pharmacodynamics that incorporates reversible asexual parasite injury and temporary drug refractoriness in order to explain the failure of frequent dosing to augment therapeutic efficacy in falciparum malaria. METHODS: The model was fitted using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach with the parasite clearance data from 39 patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria treated with artesunate from western Cambodia and 40 patients from northwestern Thailand reported previously. RESULTS: The revised model captured the dynamics of parasite clearance data. Its predictions are consistent with observed therapeutic responses. CONCLUSIONS: A within-host pharmacometric model is proposed in which it is hypothesized that some malaria parasites enter a temporary drug refractory state after exposure to artemisinin antimalarials, which is followed by delayed parasite death or reactivation. The model fitted the observed sequential parasite density data from patients with acute P. falciparum malaria, and it supported reduced ring stage activity in artemisinin-resistant infections.

Quantification of parasite clearance in Plasmodium knowlesi infections.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi infections in humans is rising in Southeast Asia, leading to clinical studies to monitor the efficacy of anti-malarial treatments for knowlesi malaria. One of the key outcomes of anti-malarial drug efficacy is parasite clearance. For Plasmodium falciparum, parasite clearance is typically estimated using a two-stage method, that involves estimating parasite clearance for individual patients followed by pooling of individual estimates to derive population estimates. An alternative approach is Bayesian hierarchical modelling which simultaneously analyses all parasite-time patient profiles to determine parasite clearance. This study compared these methods for estimating parasite clearance in P. knowlesi treatment efficacy studies, with typically fewer parasite measurements per patient due to high susceptibility to anti-malarials. METHODS: Using parasite clearance data from 714 patients with knowlesi malaria and enrolled in three trials, the Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) Parasite Clearance Estimator (PCE) standard two-stage approach and Bayesian hierarchical modelling were compared. Both methods estimate the parasite clearance rate from a model that incorporates a lag phase, slope, and tail phase for the parasitaemia profiles. RESULTS: The standard two-stage approach successfully estimated the parasite clearance rate for 678 patients, with 36 (5%) patients excluded due to an insufficient number of available parasitaemia measurements. The Bayesian hierarchical estimation method was applied to the parasitaemia data of all 714 patients. Overall, the Bayesian method estimated a faster population mean parasite clearance (0.36/h, 95% credible interval [0.18, 0.65]) compared to the standard two-stage method (0.26/h, 95% confidence interval [0.11, 0.46]), with better model fits (compared visually). Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is more effective in treating P. knowlesi than chloroquine, as confirmed by both methods, with a mean estimated parasite clearance half-life of 2.5 and 3.6 h, respectively using the standard two-stage method, and 1.8 and 2.9 h using the Bayesian method. CONCLUSION: For clinical studies of P. knowlesi with frequent parasite measurements, the standard two-stage approach (WWARN's PCE) is recommended as this method is straightforward to implement. For studies with fewer parasite measurements per patient, the Bayesian approach should be considered. Regardless of method used, ACT is more efficacious than chloroquine, confirming the findings of the original trials.

Effect of adherence to primaquine on the risk of Plasmodium vivax recurrence: a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Imperfect adherence is a major barrier to effective primaquine radical cure of Plasmodium vivax. This study investigated the effect of reduced adherence on the risk of P. vivax recurrence. METHODS: Efficacy studies of patients with uncomplicated P. vivax malaria, including a treatment arm with daily primaquine, published between January 1999 and March 2020 were identified. Individual patient data from eligible studies were pooled using standardized methodology. Adherence to primaquine was inferred from i) the percentage of supervised doses and ii) the total mg/kg dose received compared to the target total mg/kg dose per protocol. The effect of adherence to primaquine on the incidence of P. vivax recurrence between days 7 and 90 was investigated by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 82 eligible studies, 32 were available including 6917 patients from 18 countries. For adherence assessed by percentage of supervised primaquine, 2790 patients (40.3%) had poor adherence (≤ 50%) and 4127 (59.7%) had complete adherence. The risk of recurrence by day 90 was 14.0% [95% confidence interval: 12.1-16.1] in patients with poor adherence compared to 5.8% [5.0-6.7] following full adherence; p = 0.014. After controlling for age, sex, baseline parasitaemia, and total primaquine dose per protocol, the rate of the first recurrence was higher following poor adherence compared to patients with full adherence (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.3 [1.8-2.9]). When adherence was quantified by total mg/kg dose received among 3706 patients, 347 (9.4%) had poor adherence, 88 (2.4%) had moderate adherence, and 3271 (88.2%) had complete adherence to treatment. The risks of recurrence by day 90 were 8.2% [4.3-15.2] in patients with poor adherence and 4.9% [4.1-5.8] in patients with full adherence; p < 0.001. CONCLUSION: Reduced adherence, including less supervision, increases the risk of vivax recurrence.

The heterogeneity of symptom reporting across study sites: a secondary analysis of a randomised placebo-controlled multicentre antimalarial trial.

INTRODUCTION: Symptoms reported following the administration of investigational drugs play an important role in decisions for registration and treatment guidelines. However, symptoms are subjective, and interview methods to quantify them are difficult to standardise. We explored differences in symptom reporting across study sites of a multicentre antimalarial trial, with the aim of informing trial design and the interpretation of safety and tolerability data. METHODS: Data were derived from the IMPROV trial, a randomised, placebo-controlled double blinded trial of high dose primaquine to prevent Plasmodium vivax recurrence conducted in eight study sites in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Vietnam. At each follow up visit a 13-point symptom questionnaire was completed. The number and percentage of patients with clinically relevant symptoms following the administration of primaquine or placebo, were reported by study site including vomiting, diarrhoea, anorexia, nausea, abdominal pain and dizziness. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the confounder-adjusted site-specific proportion of each symptom. RESULTS: A total of 2,336 patients were included. The greatest variation between sites in the proportion of patients reporting symptoms was for anorexia between day 0 and day 13: 97.3% (361/371) of patients in Arba Minch, Ethiopia, reported the symptom compared with 4.7% (5/106) of patients in Krong Pa, Vietnam. Differences attenuated slightly after adjusting for treatment arm, age, sex, day 0 parasite density and fever; with the adjusted proportion for anorexia ranging from 4.8% to 97.0%. Differences between sites were greater for symptoms graded as mild or moderate compared to those rated as severe. Differences in symptom reporting were greater between study sites than between treatment arms within the same study site. CONCLUSION: Despite standardised training, there was large variation in symptom reporting across trial sites. The reporting of severe symptoms was less skewed compared to mild and moderate symptoms, which are likely to be more subjective. Trialists should clearly distinguish between safety and tolerability outcomes. Differences between trial arms were much less variable across sites, suggesting that the relative difference in reported symptoms between intervention and control group is more relevant than absolute numbers and should be reported when possible. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01814683; March 20th, 2013.

Comparison of Antibody Responses and Parasite Clearance in Artemisinin Therapeutic Efficacy Studies in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Asia.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the effect of immunity on Plasmodium falciparum clearance is essential for interpreting therapeutic efficacy studies designed to monitor emergence of artemisinin drug resistance. In low-transmission areas of Southeast Asia, where resistance has emerged, P. falciparum antibodies confound parasite clearance measures. However, variation in naturally acquired antibodies across Asian and sub-Saharan African epidemiological contexts and their impact on parasite clearance re yet to be quantified. METHODS: In an artemisinin therapeutic efficacy study, antibodies to 12 pre-erythrocytic and erythrocytic P. falciparum antigens were measured in 118 children with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and compared with responses in patients from Asian sites, described elsewhere. RESULTS: Parasite clearance half-life was shorter in DRC patients (median, 2 hours) compared with most Asian sites (median, 2-7 hours), but P. falciparum antibody levels and seroprevalences were similar. There was no evidence for an association between antibody seropositivity and parasite clearance half-life (mean difference between seronegative and seropositive, -0.14 to +0.40 hour) in DRC patients. CONCLUSIONS: In DRC, where artemisinin remains highly effective, the substantially shorter parasite clearance time compared with Asia was not explained by differences in the P. falciparum antibody responses studied.

Scoping Review of Antimalarial Drug Candidates in Phase I and II Drug Development.

The emergence and spread of parasite resistance to currently available antimalarials has highlighted the importance of developing novel antimalarials. This scoping review provides an overview of antimalarial drug candidates undergoing phase I and II studies between 1 January 2016 and 28 April 2021. PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, clinical trial registries, and reference lists were searched for relevant studies. Information regarding antimalarial compound details, clinical trial characteristics, study population, and drug pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics (PK-PD) were extracted. A total of 50 studies were included, of which 24 had published their results and 26 were unpublished. New antimalarial compounds were evaluated as monotherapy (28 studies, 14 drug candidates) and combination therapy (9 studies, 10 candidates). Fourteen active compounds were identified in the current antimalarial drug development pipeline together with 11 compounds that are inactive, 6 due to insufficient efficacy. PK-PD data were available from 24 studies published as open-access articles. Four unpublished studies have made their results publicly available on clinical trial registries. The terminal elimination half-life of new antimalarial compounds ranged from 14.7 to 483 h. The log10 parasite reduction ratio over 48 h and parasite clearance half-life for Plasmodium falciparum following a single-dose monotherapy were 1.55 to 4.1 and 3.4 to 9.4 h, respectively. The antimalarial drug development landscape has seen a number of novel compounds, with promising PK-PD properties, evaluated in phase I and II studies over the past 5 years. Timely public disclosure of PK-PD data is crucial for informative decision-making and drug development strategy.

Intermittent screening and treatment for malaria complementary to routine immunisation in the first year of life in Papua, Indonesia: a cluster randomised superiority trial.

BACKGROUND: In Papua (Indonesia), infants with P. falciparum and/or P. vivax malaria are at risk of severe anaemia and death. We hypothesized that in an area of high malaria transmission, intermittent screening and treatment of infants with malaria (ISTi) will reduce morbidity compared to passive case detection (PCDi). METHODS: We conducted a cluster randomised, open label, superiority trial. A total of 21 clusters of village health posts (VHP) were randomised 1:1 to either IST for infants coinciding with 4 routine immunisation visits or PCDi. Healthy term infants born to consenting mothers enrolled into a maternal malaria cluster randomised trial were included in the study and followed for 12 months. Point of care malaria rapid diagnostic tests were used to detect peripheral parasitaemia at 2, 3, 4 and 9 months old in all infants in ISTi clusters and when symptomatic in PCDi clusters. Infants with detected peripheral parasitaemia were treated with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine. The co-primary outcomes were the incidence rate of clinical malaria in the first year of life and the prevalence of parasitaemia at age 12 months. The incidence rate ratio and prevalence ratio between ISTi and PCDi were estimated using mixed-effects Poisson and log-binomial regression modelling (accounting for clustering at VHP level). RESULTS: Between May 2014 and February 2017, 757 infants were enrolled into the study, 313 into 10 ISTi clusters, and 444 into 11 PCDi clusters. Overall, 132 episodes of parasitaemia were detected, of whom 17 (12.9%) were in symptomatic infants. Over 12 months, the incidence rate (IR) of clinical malaria was 24 [95% CI, 10-50] per 1000 children-years at risk in the ISTi arm and 19 [95% CI, 8,38] per 1000 children-years in the PCDi arm (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 1.77 [95% CI, 0.62-5.01]; p = 0.280). The prevalence of parasitaemia at 12 months was 13% (33/254) in the IST clusters and 15% (57/379) in the PCD clusters (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) = 0.92 (95% CI, 0.70-1.21), p = 0.55). There was no difference in the risk of anaemia between treatment arms. CONCLUSIONS: In high malaria transmission area outside of Africa, our study suggests that compared to PCDi, ISTi offers no significant benefit in reducing the risk of clinical malaria in infants born to women receiving effective protection from malaria during pregnancy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02001428 , registered on 20 Nov 2013.

Quantification of the dynamics of antibody response to malaria to inform sero-surveillance in pregnant women.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a major public health threat and tools sensitive to detect infections in low malaria transmission areas are needed to progress elimination efforts. Pregnant women are particularly vulnerable to malaria infections. Throughout pregnancy they access routine antenatal care, presenting a unique sentinel population to apply novel sero-surveillance tools to measure malaria transmission. The aim of this study was to quantify the dynamic antibody responses to multiple antigens during pregnancy so as to identify a single or multiple antibody response of exposure to malaria in pregnancy. METHODS: This study involved a secondary analysis of antibody responses to six parasite antigens [five commonly studied merozoite antigens and the variant surface antigen 2-chondroitin sulphate A (VAR2CSA), a pregnancy-specific erythrocytic antigen] measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) over the gestation period until delivery (median of 7 measurements/woman) in 250 pregnant women who attended antenatal clinics located at the Thai-Myanmar border. A multivariate mixture linear mixed model was used to cluster the pregnant women into groups that have similar longitudinal antibody responses to all six antigens over the gestational period using a Bayesian approach. The variable-specific entropy was calculated to identify the antibody responses that have the highest influence on the classification of the women into clusters, and subsequent agreement with grouping of women based on exposure to malaria during pregnancy. RESULTS: Of the 250 pregnant women, 135 had a Plasmodium infection detected by light microscopy during pregnancy (39% Plasmodium falciparum only, 33% Plasmodium vivax only and 28% mixed/other species), defined as cases. The antibody responses to all six antigens accurately identified the women who did not have a malaria infection detected during pregnancy (93%, 107/115 controls). Antibody responses to P. falciparum merozoite surface protein 3 (PfMSP3) and P. vivax apical membrane antigen 1 (PvAMA1) were the least dynamic. Antibody responses to the antigens P. falciparum apical membrane antigen 1 (PfAMA1) and PfVAR2CSA were able to identify the majority of the cases more accurately (63%, 85/135). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the combination of antibodies, PfAMA1 and PfVAR2CSA, may be useful for sero-surveillance of malaria infections in pregnant women, particularly in low malaria transmission settings. Further investigation of other antibody markers is warranted considering these antibodies combined only detected 63% of the malaria infections during pregnancy.

Surveillance to achieve malaria elimination in eastern Myanmar: a 7-year observational study.

BACKGROUND: The collection and utilization of surveillance data is essential in monitoring progress towards achieving malaria elimination, in the timely response to increases in malaria case numbers and in the assessment of programme functioning. This paper describes the surveillance activities used by the malaria elimination task force (METF) programme which operates in eastern Myanmar, and provides an analysis of data collected from weekly surveillance, case investigations, and monitoring and evaluation of programme performance. METHODS: This retrospective analysis was conducted using data collected from a network of 1250 malaria posts operational between 2014 and 2021. To investigate changes in data completeness, malaria post performance, malaria case numbers, and the demographic details of malaria cases, summary statistics were used to compare data collected over space and time. RESULTS: In the first 3 years of the METF programme, improvements in data transmission routes resulted in a 18.9% reduction in late reporting, allowing for near real-time analysis of data collected at the malaria posts. In 2020, travel restrictions were in place across Karen State in response to COVID-19, and from February 2021 the military coup in Myanmar resulted in widescale population displacement. However, over that period there has been no decline in malaria post attendance, and the majority of consultations continue to occur within 48 h of fever onset. Case investigations found that 43.8% of cases travelled away from their resident village in the 3 weeks prior to diagnosis and 36.3% reported never using a bed net whilst sleeping in their resident village, which increased to 72.2% when sleeping away from their resident village. Malaria post assessments performed in 82.3% of the METF malaria posts found malaria posts generally performed to a high standard. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance data collected by the METF programme demonstrate that despite significant changes in the context in which the programme operates, malaria posts have remained accessible and continue to provide early diagnosis and treatment contributing to an 89.3% decrease in Plasmodium falciparum incidence between 2014 and 2021.

Within-host modeling of blood-stage malaria.

Malaria infection continues to be a major health problem worldwide and drug resistance in the major human parasite species, Plasmodium falciparum, is increasing in South East Asia. Control measures including novel drugs and vaccines are in development, and contributions to the rational design and optimal usage of these interventions are urgently needed. Infection involves the complex interaction of parasite dynamics, host immunity, and drug effects. The long life cycle (48 hours in the common human species) and synchronized replication cycle of the parasite population present significant challenges to modeling the dynamics of Plasmodium infection. Coupled with these, variation in immune recognition and drug action at different life cycle stages leads to further complexity. We review the development and progress of "within-host" models of Plasmodium infection, and how these have been applied to understanding and interpreting human infection and animal models of infection.

Global economic costs due to vivax malaria and the potential impact of its radical cure: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In 2017, an estimated 14 million cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria were reported from Asia, Central and South America, and the Horn of Africa. The clinical burden of vivax malaria is largely driven by its ability to form dormant liver stages (hypnozoites) that can reactivate to cause recurrent episodes of malaria. Elimination of both the blood and liver stages of the parasites ("radical cure") is required to achieve a sustained clinical response and prevent ongoing transmission of the parasite. Novel treatment options and point-of-care diagnostics are now available to ensure that radical cure can be administered safely and effectively. We quantified the global economic cost of vivax malaria and estimated the potential cost benefit of a policy of radical cure after testing patients for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Estimates of the healthcare provider and household costs due to vivax malaria were collated and combined with national case estimates for 44 endemic countries in 2017. These provider and household costs were compared with those that would be incurred under 2 scenarios for radical cure following G6PD screening: (1) complete adherence following daily supervised primaquine therapy and (2) unsupervised treatment with an assumed 40% effectiveness. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis generated credible intervals (CrIs) for the estimates. Globally, the annual cost of vivax malaria was US$359 million (95% CrI: US$222 to 563 million), attributable to 14.2 million cases of vivax malaria in 2017. From a societal perspective, adopting a policy of G6PD deficiency screening and supervision of primaquine to all eligible patients would prevent 6.1 million cases and reduce the global cost of vivax malaria to US$266 million (95% CrI: US$161 to 415 million), although healthcare provider costs would increase by US$39 million. If perfect adherence could be achieved with a single visit, then the global cost would fall further to US$225 million, equivalent to $135 million in cost savings from the baseline global costs. A policy of unsupervised primaquine reduced the cost to US$342 million (95% CrI: US$209 to 532 million) while preventing 2.1 million cases. Limitations of the study include partial availability of country-level cost data and parameter uncertainty for the proportion of patients prescribed primaquine, patient adherence to a full course of primaquine, and effectiveness of primaquine when unsupervised. CONCLUSIONS: Our modelling study highlights a substantial global economic burden of vivax malaria that could be reduced through investment in safe and effective radical cure achieved by routine screening for G6PD deficiency and supervision of treatment. Novel, low-cost interventions for improving adherence to primaquine to ensure effective radical cure and widespread access to screening for G6PD deficiency will be critical to achieving the timely global elimination of P. vivax.