Case-area targeted interventions during a large-scale cholera epidemic: A prospective cohort study in Northeast Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Cholera outbreaks are on the rise globally, with conflict-affected settings particularly at risk. Case-area targeted interventions (CATIs), a strategy whereby teams provide a package of interventions to case and neighboring households within a predefined "ring," are increasingly employed in cholera responses. However, evidence on their ability to attenuate incidence is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study in 3 conflict-affected states in Nigeria in 2021. Enumerators within rapid response teams observed CATI implementation during a cholera outbreak and collected data on household demographics; existing water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure; and CATI interventions. Descriptive statistics showed that CATIs were delivered to 46,864 case and neighbor households, with 80.0% of cases and 33.5% of neighbors receiving all intended supplies and activities, in a context with operational challenges of population density, supply stock outs, and security constraints. We then applied prospective Poisson space-time scan statistics (STSS) across 3 models for each state: (1) an unadjusted model with case and population data; (2) an environmentally adjusted model adjusting for distance to cholera treatment centers and existing WASH infrastructure (improved water source, improved latrine, and handwashing station); and (3) a fully adjusted model adjusting for environmental and CATI variables (supply of Aquatabs and soap, hygiene promotion, bedding and latrine disinfection activities, ring coverage, and response timeliness). We ran the STSS each day of our study period to evaluate the space-time dynamics of the cholera outbreaks. Compared to the unadjusted model, significant cholera clustering was attenuated in the environmentally adjusted model (from 572 to 18 clusters) but there was still risk of cholera transmission. Two states still yielded significant clusters (range 8-10 total clusters, relative risk of 2.2-5.5, 16.6-19.9 day duration, including 11.1-56.8 cholera cases). Cholera clustering was completely attenuated in the fully adjusted model, with no significant anomalous clusters across time and space. Associated measures including quantity, relative risk, significance, likelihood of recurrence, size, and duration of clusters reinforced the results. Key limitations include selection bias, remote data monitoring, and the lack of a control group. CONCLUSIONS: CATIs were associated with significant reductions in cholera clustering in Northeast Nigeria despite operational challenges. Our results provide a strong justification for rapid implementation and scale-up CATIs in cholera-response, particularly in conflict settings where WASH access is often limited.

COVID-19 epidemiology and changes in health service utilization in Azraq and Zaatari refugee camps in Jordan: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in humanitarian contexts are not well understood. Specific vulnerabilities in such settings raised concerns about the ability to respond and maintain essential health services. This study describes the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Azraq and Zaatari refugee camps in Jordan (population: 37,932 and 79,034, respectively) and evaluates changes in routine health services during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We calculate the descriptive statistics of COVID-19 cases in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)'s linelist and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for selected outcomes. We evaluate the changes in health services using monthly routine data from UNHCR's health information system (HIS; January 2018 to March 2021) and apply interrupted time series analysis with a generalized additive model and negative binomial (NB) distribution, accounting for long-term trends and seasonality, reporting results as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). COVID-19 cases were first reported on September 8 and September 13, 2020 in Azraq and Zaatari camps, respectively, 6 months after the first case in Jordan. Incidence rates (IRs) were lower in camps than neighboring governorates (by 37.6% in Azraq (IRR: 0.624, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [0.584 to 0.666], p-value: <0.001) and 40.2% in Zaatari (IRR: 0.598, 95% CI: [0.570, 0.629], p-value: <0.001)) and lower than Jordan (by 59.7% in Azraq (IRR: 0.403, 95% CI: [0.378 to 0.430], p-value: <0.001) and by 63.3% in Zaatari (IRR: 0.367, 95% CI: [0.350 to 0.385], p-value: <0.001)). Characteristics of cases and risk factors for negative disease outcomes were consistent with increasing COVID-19 evidence. The following health services reported an immediate decline during the first year of COVID-19: healthcare utilization (by 32% in Azraq (IRR: 0.680, 95% CI [0.549 to 0.843], p-value < 0.001) and by 24.2% in Zaatari (IRR: 0.758, 95% CI [0.577 to 0.995], p-value = 0.046)); consultations for respiratory tract infections (RTIs; by 25.1% in Azraq (IRR: 0.749, 95% CI: [0.596 to 0.940], p-value = 0.013 and by 37.5% in Zaatari (IRR: 0.625, 95% CI: [0.461 to 0.849], p-value = 0.003)); and family planning (new and repeat family planning consultations decreased by 47.4% in Azraq (IRR: 0.526, 95% CI: [0.376 to 0.736], p-value = <0.001) and 47.6% in Zaatari (IRR: 0.524, 95% CI: [0.312 to 0.878], p-value = 0.014)). Maternal and child health services as well as noncommunicable diseases did not show major changes compared to pre-COVID-19 period. Conducting interrupted time series analyses in volatile settings such refugee camps can be challenging as it may be difficult to meet some analytical assumptions and to mitigate threats to validity. The main limitation of this study relates therefore to possible unmeasured confounding. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 transmission was lower in camps than outside of camps. Refugees may have been affected from external transmission, rather than driving it. Various types of health services were affected differently, but disruptions appear to have been limited in the 2 camps compared to other noncamp settings. These insights into Jordan's refugee camps during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic set the stage for follow-up research to investigate how infection susceptibility evolved over time, as well as which mitigation strategies were more successful and accepted.

Delivering health and nutrition interventions for women and children in different conflict contexts: a framework for decision making on what, when, and how.

Existing global guidance for addressing women's and children's health and nutrition in humanitarian crises is not sufficiently contextualised for conflict settings specifically, reflecting the still-limited evidence that is available from such settings. As a preliminary step towards filling this guidance gap, we propose a conflict-specific framework that aims to guide decision makers focused on the health and nutrition of women and children affected by conflict to prioritise interventions that would address the major causes of mortality and morbidity among women and children in their particular settings and that could also be feasibly delivered in those settings. Assessing local needs, identifying relevant interventions from among those already recommended for humanitarian settings or universally, and assessing the contextual feasibility of delivery for each candidate intervention are key steps in the framework. We illustratively apply the proposed decision making framework to show what a framework-guided selection of priority interventions might look like in three hypothetical conflict contexts that differ in terms of levels of insecurity and patterns of population displacement. In doing so, we aim to catalyse further iteration and eventual field-testing of such a decision making framework by local, national, and international organisations and agencies involved in the humanitarian health response for women and children affected by conflict.

The political and security dimensions of the humanitarian health response to violent conflict.

The nature of armed conflict throughout the world is intensely dynamic. Consequently, the protection of non-combatants and the provision of humanitarian services must continually adapt to this changing conflict environment. Complex political affiliations, the systematic use of explosive weapons and sexual violence, and the use of new communication technology, including social media, have created new challenges for humanitarian actors in negotiating access to affected populations and security for their own personnel. The nature of combatants has also evolved as armed, non-state actors might have varying motivations, use different forms of violence, and engage in a variety of criminal activities to generate requisite funds. New health threats, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and new capabilities, such as modern trauma care, have also created new challenges and opportunities for humanitarian health provision. In response, humanitarian policies and practices must develop negotiation and safety capabilities, informed by political and security realities on the ground, and guidance from affected communities. More fundamentally, humanitarian policies will need to confront a changing geopolitical environment, in which traditional humanitarian norms and protections might encounter wavering support in the years to come.

Delivering health interventions to women, children, and adolescents in conflict settings: what have we learned from ten country case studies?

Armed conflict disproportionately affects the morbidity, mortality, and wellbeing of women, newborns, children, and adolescents. Our study presents insights from a collection of ten country case studies aiming to assess the provision of sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health and nutrition interventions in ten conflict-affected settings in Afghanistan, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. We found that despite large variations in contexts and decision making processes, antenatal care, basic emergency obstetric and newborn care, comprehensive emergency obstetric and newborn care, immunisation, treatment of common childhood illnesses, infant and young child feeding, and malnutrition treatment and screening were prioritised in these ten conflict settings. Many lifesaving women's and children's health (WCH) services, including the majority of reproductive, newborn, and adolescent health services, are not reported as being delivered in the ten conflict settings, and interventions to address stillbirths are absent. International donors remain the primary drivers of influencing the what, where, and how of implementing WCH interventions. Interpretation of WCH outcomes in conflict settings are particularly context-dependent given the myriad of complex factors that constitute conflict and their interactions. Moreover, the comprehensiveness and quality of data remain limited in conflict settings. The dynamic nature of modern conflict and the expanding role of non-state armed groups in large geographic areas pose new challenges to delivering WCH services. However, the humanitarian system is creative and pluralistic and has developed some novel solutions to bring lifesaving WCH services closer to populations using new modes of delivery. These solutions, when rigorously evaluated, can represent concrete response to current implementation challenges to modern armed conflicts.

Ten years of tracking mental health in refugee primary health care settings: an updated analysis of data from UNHCR's Health Information System (2009-2018).

BACKGROUND: This study examines mental, neurological, and substance use (MNS) service usage within refugee camp primary health care facilities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) by analyzing surveillance data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Health Information System (HIS). Such information is crucial for efforts to strengthen MNS services in primary health care settings for refugees in LMICs. METHODS: Data on 744,036 MNS visits were collected from 175 refugee camps across 24 countries between 2009 and 2018. The HIS documented primary health care visits for seven MNS categories: epilepsy/seizures, alcohol/substance use disorders, mental retardation/intellectual disability, psychotic disorders, severe emotional disorders, medically unexplained somatic complaints, and other psychological complaints. Combined data were stratified by 2-year period, country, sex, and age group. These data were then integrated with camp population data to generate MNS service utilization rates, calculated as MNS visits per 1000 persons per month. RESULTS: MNS service utilization rates remained broadly consistent throughout the 10-year period, with rates across all camps hovering around 2-3 visits per 1000 persons per month. The largest proportion of MNS visits were attributable to epilepsy/seizures (44.4%) and psychotic disorders (21.8%). There were wide variations in MNS service utilization rates and few consistent patterns over time at the country level. Across the 10 years, females had higher MNS service utilization rates than males, and rates were lower among children under five compared to those five and older. CONCLUSIONS: Despite increased efforts to integrate MNS services into refugee primary health care settings over the past 10 years, there does not appear to be an increase in overall service utilization rates for MNS disorders within these settings. Healthcare service utilization rates are particularly low for common mental disorders such as depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, and substance use. This may be related to different health-seeking behaviors for these disorders and because psychological services are often offered outside of formal health settings and consequently do not report to the HIS. Sustained and equitable investment to improve identification and holistic management of MNS disorders in refugee settings should remain a priority.

COVID-19 epidemiology and changes in health service utilization in Uganda's refugee settlements during the first year of the pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by multiple waves with varying rates of transmission affecting countries at different times and magnitudes. Forced displacement settings were considered particularly at risk due to pre-existing vulnerabilities. Yet, the effects of COVID-19 in refugee settings are not well understood. In this study, we report on the epidemiology of COVID-19 cases in Uganda's refugee settlement regions of West Nile, Center and South, and evaluate how health service utilization changed during the first year of the pandemic. METHODS: We calculate descriptive statistics, testing rates, and incidence rates of COVID-19 cases in UNHCR's line list and adjusted odds ratios for selected outcomes. We evaluate the changes in health services using monthly routine data from UNHCR's health information system (January 2017 to March 2021) and apply interrupted time series analysis with a generalized additive model and negative binomial distribution, accounting for long-term trends and seasonality, reporting results as incidence rate ratios. FINDINGS: The first COVID-19 case was registered in Uganda on March 20, 2020, and among refugees two months later on May 22, 2020 in Adjumani settlement. Incidence rates were higher at national level for the general population compared to refugees by region and overall. Testing capacity in the settlements was lower compared to the national level. Characteristics of COVID-19 cases among refugees in Uganda seem to align with the global epidemiology of COVID-19. Only hospitalization rate was higher than globally reported. The indirect effects of COVID-19 on routine health services and outcomes appear quite consistent across regions. Maternal and child routine and preventative health services seem to have been less affected by COVID-19 than consultations for acute conditions. All regions reported a decrease in consultations for respiratory tract infections. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 transmission seemed lower in settlement regions than the national average, but so was testing capacity. Disruptions to health services were limited, and mainly affected consultations for acute conditions. This study, focusing on the first year of the pandemic, warrants follow-up research to investigate how susceptibility evolved over time, and how and whether health services could be maintained.

Multi-purpose cash transfers and health among vulnerable Syrian refugees in Lebanon: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Multipurpose cash transfers (MPCs) are used on a widespread basis in the Syrian refugee response; however, there is little to no evidence as to how they affect health in humanitarian crises. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted from May 2018 through July 2019 to evaluate the impact of MPCs on health care-seeking and expenditures for child, adult acute, and adult chronic illness by Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Households receiving MPCs from UNHCR were compared to control households not receiving UNHCR MPCs. RESULTS: Care-seeking for childhood illness was consistently high in both MPC and non-MPC households. An increased proportion of households did not receive all recommended care due to cost; this increase was 19.3% greater among MPC recipients than controls (P = 0.002). Increases in child hospitalizations were significantly smaller among MPC recipients than controls (DiD -6.1%; P = 0.037). For adult acute illnesses, care-seeking increased among MPC recipients but decreased in controls (adjusted DiD 11.3%; P = 0.057); differences in change for other utilization outcomes were not significant. The adjusted difference in change in the proportion of MPC households not receiving recommended chronic illness care due to cost compared to controls was - 28.2% (P = 0.073). Access to medication for adult chronic illness also marginally significantly improved for MPC households relative to controls. The proportion of MPC recipients reporting expenses for the most recent child and adult acute illness increased significantly, as did the [log] total visit cost. Both MPC and control households reported significant increases in borrowing to pay for health expenses over the year study period, but differences in change in borrowing or asset sales were not significant, indicating that MPC was not protective against for household financial risks associated with health. CONCLUSIONS: While MPC may have shown some positive effects, findings were mixed and MPC appears insufficient on its own to address health utilization and expenditures. A broader strategy addressing Syrian refugee health in Lebanon is needed of which MPC should be incorporated, with additional support such as additional conditional cash transfers for health.

Neonatal mortality burden and trends in UNHCR refugee camps, 2006-2017: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: More than 100 million people were forcibly displaced over the last decade, including millions of refugees displaced across international borders. Although refugee health and well-being has gained increasing attention from researchers in recent years, few studies have examined refugee birth outcomes or newborn health on a regional or global scale. This study uses routine health information system data to examine neonatal mortality burden and trends in refugee camps between 2006 and 2017. METHODS: Refugee population and mortality data were exported from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Health Information System (HIS) database. Tableau was used to export the data. Stata was used for data cleaning and statistical analysis. Neonatal mortality burdens and trends in refugee camps were analyzed and compared to national and subnational neonatal mortality rates captured by household surveys. FINDINGS: One hundred fifty refugee camps in 21 countries were included in this study, with an average population of 1,725,433 between 2006 and 2017. A total of 663,892 live births and 3382 neonatal deaths were captured during this period. Annual country-level refugee camp neonatal mortality rates (NMR) ranged from 12 to 56 neonatal deaths per 1000 live births. In most countries and years where national population-based surveys are available, refugee camp NMR as reported in the UNHCR HIS was lower than that of the immediate host community. CONCLUSION: The UNHCR HIS provides insights into the neonatal mortality burden among refugees in camp settings and issues to consider in design and use of routine health information systems to monitor neonatal health in sub-national populations. Increased visibility of neonatal deaths and stillbirths among displaced populations can drive advocacy and inform decisions needed to strengthen health systems. Efforts to count every stillbirth and neonatal death are critical, as well as improvements to reporting systems and mechanisms for data review within broader efforts to improve the quality of neonatal care practices within and outside of health facilities.

Cancer in Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon between 2015 and 2017.

Protracted conflicts in the Middle East have led to successive waves of refugees crossing borders. Chronic, non-communicable diseases are now recognised as diseases that need to be addressed in such crises. Cancer, in particular, with its costly, multidisciplinary care, poses considerable financial and ethical challenges for policy makers. In 2014 and with funding from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, we reported on cancer cases among Iraqi refugees in Jordan (2010-12) and Syria (2009-11). In this Policy Review, we provide data on 733 refugees referred to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Lebanon (2015-17) and Jordan (2016-17), analysed by cancer type, demographic risk factors, treatment coverage status, and cost. Results show the need for increased funding and evidence-based standard operating procedures across countries to ensure that patients have equitable access to care. We recommend a holistic response to humanitarian crises that includes education, screening, treatment, and palliative care for refugees and nationals and prioritises breast cancer and childhood cancers.

Migrant and refugee health: Complex health associations among diverse contexts call for tailored and rights-based solutions.

In an Editorial, Guest Editors Paul Spiegel, Terry McGovern and Kol Wickramage discuss the Special Issue on Refugee and Migrant Health.

Interpretation of vulnerability and cumulative disadvantage among unaccompanied adolescent migrants in Greece: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: In settings of mass displacement, unaccompanied minors (UAMs) are recognized as a vulnerable group and consequently prioritized by relief efforts. This study examines how the interpretation of vulnerability by the national shelter system for male UAMs in Greece shapes their trajectories into adulthood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between August 2018 and April 2019, key informant interviews were carried out with child protection staff from Greek non-governmental organizations that refer UAMs to specialized children's shelters in Athens to understand how child protection workers interpret vulnerability. In-depth interviews and life history calendars were collected from 44 male migrant youths from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Iran who arrived in Greece as UAMs but had since transitioned into adulthood. Analysis of in-depth interviews and life history calendars examined how cumulative disadvantage and engagement with the shelter system altered youths' trajectories into adulthood. Younger adolescents were perceived as more vulnerable and prioritized for shelters over those who were "almost 18" years old. However, a subset of youths who requested shelter at the age of 17 years had experienced prolonged journeys where they spent months or years living on their own in socially isolated environments that excluded them from experiences conducive to adolescent development. The shelter system for UAMs in Greece enabled youths to develop new skills and networks that facilitated integration into society, and transferred them into adult housing when they turned 18 years old so that they could continue developing new skills. Those who were not in shelters by age 18 years could not access adult housing and lost this opportunity. Limitations included possible underrepresentation of homeless youth as well as the inability to capture all nationalities of UAMs in Greece, though the 2 most common nationalities, Afghan and Pakistani, were included. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the way vulnerability was interpreted by the shelter system for UAMs, youths who had the greatest need to learn new skills to facilitate their integration often had the least opportunity to do so. To avoid creating long-lasting disparities between UAMs who are placed in shelters and those who are not, pathways should be developed to allow young adult males to enter accommodation facilities and build skills and networks that facilitate integration. Furthermore, cumulative disadvantages should be taken into account while assessing UAMs' vulnerability. Following UAMs' trajectories into early adulthood was critical for capturing this long-term consequence of the shelter system's interpretation of vulnerability.

The potential impact of COVID-19 in refugee camps in Bangladesh and beyond: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 could have even more dire consequences in refugees camps than in general populations. Bangladesh has confirmed COVID-19 cases and hosts almost 1 million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, with 600,000 concentrated in the Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site (mean age, 21 years; standard deviation [SD], 18 years; 52% female). Projections of the potential COVID-19 burden, epidemic speed, and healthcare needs in such settings are critical for preparedness planning. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To explore the potential impact of the introduction of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site, we used a stochastic Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered (SEIR) transmission model with parameters derived from emerging literature and age as the primary determinant of infection severity. We considered three scenarios with different assumptions about the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2. From the simulated infections, we estimated hospitalizations, deaths, and healthcare needs expected, age-adjusted for the Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site age distribution. Our findings suggest that a large-scale outbreak is likely after a single introduction of the virus into the camp, with 61%-92% of simulations leading to at least 1,000 people infected across scenarios. On average, in the first 30 days of the outbreak, we expect 18 (95% prediction interval [PI], 2-65), 54 (95% PI, 3-223), and 370 (95% PI, 4-1,850) people infected in the low, moderate, and high transmission scenarios, respectively. These reach 421,500 (95% PI, 376,300-463,500), 546,800 (95% PI, 499,300-567,000), and 589,800 (95% PI, 578,800-595,600) people infected in 12 months, respectively. Hospitalization needs exceeded the existing hospitalization capacity of 340 beds after 55-136 days, between the low and high transmission scenarios. We estimate 2,040 (95% PI, 1,660-2,500), 2,650 (95% PI, 2,030-3,380), and 2,880 (95% PI, 2,090-3,830) deaths in the low, moderate, and high transmission scenarios, respectively. Due to limited data at the time of analyses, we assumed that age was the primary determinant of infection severity and hospitalization. We expect that comorbidities, limited hospitalization, and intensive care capacity may increase this risk; thus, we may be underestimating the potential burden. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a COVID-19 epidemic in a refugee settlement may have profound consequences, requiring large increases in healthcare capacity and infrastructure that may exceed what is currently feasible in these settings. Detailed and realistic planning for the worst case in Kutupalong-Balukhali and all refugee camps worldwide must begin now. Plans should consider novel and radical strategies to reduce infectious contacts and fill health worker gaps while recognizing that refugees may not have access to national health systems.

Venezuela's public health crisis: a regional emergency.

The economic crisis in Venezuela has eroded the country's health-care infrastructure and threatened the public health of its people. Shortages in medications, health supplies, interruptions of basic utilities at health-care facilities, and the emigration of health-care workers have led to a progressive decline in the operational capacity of health care. The effect of the crisis on public health has been difficult to quantify since the Venezuelan Ministry of Health stopped publishing crucial public health statistics in 2016. We prepared a synthesis of health information, beyond what is available from other sources, and scholarly discussion of engagement strategies for the international community. Data were identified through searches in MEDLINE, PubMed, and the grey literature, through references from relevant articles, and governmental and non-governmental reports, and publicly available databases. Articles published in English and Spanish until Dec 1, 2018, were included. Over the past decade, public health measures in Venezuela have substantially declined. From 2012 to 2016, infant deaths increased by 63% and maternal mortality more than doubled. Since 2016, outbreaks of the vaccine-preventable diseases measles and diphtheria have spread throughout the region. From 2016 to 2017, Venezuela had the largest rate of increase of malaria in the world, and in 2015, tuberculosis rates were the highest in the country in 40 years. Between 2017 and 2018, most patients who were infected with HIV interrupted therapy because of a lack of medications. The Venezuelan economic crisis has shattered the health-care system and resulted in rising morbidity and mortality. Outbreaks and expanding epidemics of infectious diseases associated with declines in basic public health services are threatening the health of the country and the region.