Evaluation of community-based vector surveillance system for routine entomological monitoring under low malaria vector densities and high bed net coverage in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Entomological surveillance is traditionally conducted by supervised teams of trained technicians. However, it is expensive and limiting in the number of sites visited. Surveillance through community-based collectors (CBC) may be more cost-effective and sustainable for longitudinal entomological monitoring. This study evaluated the efficiency of CBCs in monitoring mosquito densities compared to quality-assured sampling conducted by experienced entomology technicians. METHODS: Entomological surveillance employing CBCs was conducted in eighteen clusters of villages in western Kenya using indoor and outdoor CDC light traps and indoor Prokopack aspiration. Sixty houses in each cluster were enrolled and sampled once every month. Collected mosquitoes were initially identified to the genus level by CBCs, preserved in 70% ethanol and transferred to the laboratory every 2 weeks. Parallel, collections by experienced entomology field technicians were conducted monthly by indoor and outdoor CDC light traps and indoor Prokopack aspiration and served as a quality assurance of the CBCs. RESULTS: Per collection, the CBCs collected 80% fewer Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) [RR = 0.2; (95% CI 0.14-0.27)] and Anopheles coustani [RR = 0.2; (95% CI 0.06-0.53)] and 90% fewer Anopheles funestus [RR = 0.1; (95% CI 0.08-0.19)] by CDC light traps compared to the quality assured (QA) entomology teams. Significant positive correlations were however observed between the monthly collections by CBCs and QA teams for both An. gambiae and An. funestus. In paired identifications of pooled mosquitoes, the CBCs identified 4.3 times more Anopheles compared to experienced technicians. The cost per person-night was lower in the community-based sampling at $9.1 compared to $89.3 by QA per collection effort. CONCLUSION: Unsupervised community-based mosquito surveillance collected substantially fewer mosquitoes per trap-night compared to quality-assured collection by experienced field teams, while consistently overestimating the number of Anopheles mosquitoes during identification. However, the numbers collected were significantly correlated between the CBCs and the QA teams suggesting that trends observed by CBCs and QA teams were similar. Further studies are needed to evaluate whether adopting low-cost, devolved supervision with spot checks, coupled with remedial training of the CBCs, can improve community-based collections to be considered a cost-effective alternative to surveillance conducted by experienced entomological technicians.

The application of drones for mosquito larval habitat identification in rural environments: a practical approach for malaria control?

BACKGROUND: Spatio-temporal trends in mosquito-borne diseases are driven by the locations and seasonality of larval habitat. One method of disease control is to decrease the mosquito population by modifying larval habitat, known as larval source management (LSM). In malaria control, LSM is currently considered impractical in rural areas due to perceived difficulties in identifying target areas. High resolution drone mapping is being considered as a practical solution to address this barrier. In this paper, the authors' experiences of drone-led larval habitat identification in Malawi were used to assess the feasibility of this approach. METHODS: Drone mapping and larval surveys were conducted in Kasungu district, Malawi between 2018 and 2020. Water bodies and aquatic vegetation were identified in the imagery using manual methods and geographical object-based image analysis (GeoOBIA) and the performances of the classifications were compared. Further, observations were documented on the practical aspects of capturing drone imagery for informing malaria control including cost, time, computing, and skills requirements. Larval sampling sites were characterized by biotic factors visible in drone imagery and generalized linear mixed models were used to determine their association with larval presence. RESULTS: Imagery covering an area of 8.9 km2 across eight sites was captured. Larval habitat characteristics were successfully identified using GeoOBIA on images captured by a standard camera (median accuracy = 98%) with no notable improvement observed after incorporating data from a near-infrared sensor. This approach however required greater processing time and technical skills compared to manual identification. Larval samples captured from 326 sites confirmed that drone-captured characteristics, including aquatic vegetation presence and type, were significantly associated with larval presence. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the potential for drone-acquired imagery to support mosquito larval habitat identification in rural, malaria-endemic areas, although technical challenges were identified which may hinder the scale up of this approach. Potential solutions have however been identified, including strengthening linkages with the flourishing drone industry in countries such as Malawi. Further consultations are therefore needed between experts in the fields of drones, image analysis and vector control are needed to develop more detailed guidance on how this technology can be most effectively exploited in malaria control.

Design and Analysis of Elimination Surveys for Neglected Tropical Diseases.

As neglected tropical diseases approach elimination status, there is a need to develop efficient sampling strategies for confirmation (or not) that elimination criteria have been met. This is an inherently difficult task because the relative precision of a prevalence estimate deteriorates as prevalence decreases, and classic survey sampling strategies based on random sampling therefore require increasingly large sample sizes. More efficient strategies for survey design and analysis can be obtained by exploiting any spatial correlation in prevalence within a model-based geostatistics framework. This framework can be used for constructing predictive probability maps that can inform in-country decision makers of the likelihood that their elimination target has been met, and where to invest in additional sampling. We evaluated our methodology using a case study of lymphatic filariasis in Ghana, demonstrating that a geostatistical approach outperforms approaches currently used to determine an evaluation unit's elimination status.

Schistosome Interactions within the Schistosoma haematobium Group, Malawi.

Molecular analysis of atypical schistosome eggs retrieved from children in Malawi revealed genetic interactions occurring between human (Schistosoma haematobium) and livestock (S. mattheei and S. bovis) schistosome species. Detection of hybrid schistosomes adds a notable new perspective to the epidemiology and control of urogenital schistosomiasis in central Africa.

Biomphalaria pfeifferi Snails and Intestinal Schistosomiasis, Lake Malawi, Africa, 2017-2018.

Two surveys conducted in 2017 and 2018 demonstrated Biomphalaria pfeifferi snails in Lake Malawi in Africa. Epidemiologic examination of 175 local children at 3 primary schools confirmed emergence of intestinal schistosomiasis. These findings highlight autochthonous transmission of Schistosoma mansoni flukes in Lake Malawi and the need to revise international travel advice.

Surveillance of intestinal schistosomiasis during control: a comparison of four diagnostic tests across five Ugandan primary schools in the Lake Albert region.

Programmatic surveillance of intestinal schistosomiasis during control can typically use four diagnostic tests, either singularly or in combination, but these have yet to be cross-compared directly. Our study assembled a complete diagnostic dataset, inclusive of infection intensities, from 258 children from five Ugandan primary schools. The schools were purposely selected as typical of the endemic landscape near Lake Albert and reflective of high- and low-transmission settings. Overall prevalence was: 44.1% (95% CI 38.0-50.2) by microscopy of duplicate Kato-Katz smears from two consecutive stools, 56.9% (95% CI 50.8-63.0) by urine-circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) dipstick, 67.4% (95% CI 61.6-73.1) by DNA-TaqMan® and 75.1% (95% CI 69.8-80.4) by soluble egg antigen enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (SEA-ELISA). A cross-comparison of diagnostic sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values was undertaken, inclusive of a latent class analysis (LCA) with a LCA-model estimate of prevalence by each school. The latter ranged from 9.6% to 100.0%, and prevalence by school for each diagnostic test followed a static ascending order or monotonic series of Kato-Katz, urine-CCA dipstick, DNA-TaqMan® and SEA-ELISA. We confirm that Kato-Katz remains a satisfactory diagnostic standalone in high-transmission settings but in low-transmission settings should be augmented or replaced by urine-CCA dipsticks. DNA-TaqMan® appears suitable in both endemic settings though is only implementable if resources permit. In low-transmission settings, SEA-ELISA remains the method of choice to evidence an absence infection. We discuss the pros and cons of each method concluding that future surveillance of intestinal schistosomiasis would benefit from a flexible, context-specific approach both in choice and application of each diagnostic method, rather than a single one-size fits all approach.

Situational analysis of lymphatic filariasis morbidity in Ahanta West District of Ghana.

OBJECTIVES: Situational analysis of lymphatic filariasis (LF) morbidity and its management in Ahanta West, Ghana, to identify potential barrier to healthcare for LF patients. METHODS: Lymphoedema and hydrocoele patients were identified by community health workers from a subset of villages, and were interviewed and participated in focus group discussions to determine their attitudes and practices towards managing their morbidity, and their perceived barriers to accessing care. Local health professionals were also interviewed to obtain their views on the availability of morbidity management services in the district. RESULTS: Sixty-two patients (34 lymphoedema and 28 hydrocoeles) and 13 local health professionals were included in the study. Lymphoedema patients predominantly self-managed their conditions, which included washing with soap and water (61.8%), and exercising the affected area (52.9%). Almost 65% of patients had sought medical assistance at some stage, but support was generally limited to receiving tablets (91%). Local health professionals reported rarely seeing lymphoedema patients, citing stigma and lack of provisions to assist patients as a reason for this. Almost half of hydrocoele patients (44%) chose not to seek medical assistance despite the negative impact it had on their lives. Whilst surgery itself is free with national health insurance, 63% those who had not sought treatment stated that indirect costs of surgery (travel costs, loss of earnings, etc.) were the most prohibitive factor to seeking treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The information obtained from this study should now be used to guide future morbidity strategies in building a stronger relationship between the local health services and LF patients, to ultimately improve patients' physical, psychological and economic wellbeing.

Developing a community-led SMS reporting tool for the rapid assessment of lymphatic filariasis morbidity burden: case studies from Malawi and Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Lymphoedema and hydrocoele are the two most common clinical manifestations of lymphatic filariasis (LF). In order to effectively target morbidity management strategies, more information is rapidly needed on morbidity burden across all endemic countries. The purpose of this study was to develop and test an SMS tool (MeasureSMS) which enables trained community-based health workers to report basic information on all cases they identified. METHODS: The tool was trialled in Chikwawa district, Malawi and Ahanta West district, Ghana in 2014. Salaried health surveillance assistants (HSAs) identified and reported cases in Malawi whereas volunteer community health workers (CHWs) were used in Ghana. Health workers were trained in recognising lymphoedema and hydrocoeles and submitting individual case data using MeasureSMS, after which they undertook a LF morbidity survey. After the reporting period, a random sample of reported cases was visited by a physician to verify the health workers' diagnoses. The proportion of correctly diagnosed cases i.e. the positive predictive value (PPV) was then calculated. RESULTS: HSAs in Malawi successfully reported 256 unique cases by SMS from 107 communities (166 hydrocoele, 88 lymphoedema, 2 with both), resulting in an estimated adult prevalence of 17.7 per 10,000 and 33.0 per 10,000 for lymphoedema and hydrocoele respectively. In Ghana, despite being less experienced in using SMS, CHWs successfully reported 360 unique cases by SMS from 33 communities (169 hydrocoele, 185 lymphoedema, 6 with both), resulting in an estimated adult prevalence of 76.9 per 10,000 and 70.5 per 10,000 adults for lymphoedema and hydrocoele respectively. The verification exercise resulted in a PPV for lymphoedema and hydrocoele diagnosis of 90 % (n = 42, 95 % CI 76.5 - 96.9) and 92 % (n = 49, 95 % CI 79.5 - 97.4) in Malawi and 94 % (n = 34, 95 % CI 78.9 %-99.0 %) and 47 % (n = 59, 35.1 %-61.7 %) in Ghana, indicating that non-invasive methods for diagnosing hydrocoeles needed to be further emphasised. CONCLUSIONS: The study concludes that given the appropriate education and tools, community-based health workers are exceptionally well-placed to participate in quantifying LF morbidity burden, and other NTDs with observable symptoms. This concept has the potential to enable national programmes to more effectively monitor their community impact in an efficient, timely and cost-effective way.

Quantifying filariasis and malaria control activities in relation to lymphatic filariasis elimination: a multiple intervention score map (MISM) for Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the geographical extent of filariasis and malaria control interventions impacting lymphatic filariasis (LF) in Malawi and to produce a multiple intervention score map (MISM) for prioritising surveillance and intervention strategies. METHODS: Interventions included mass drug administration (MDA) for LF and onchocerciasis, and bed nets and indoor residual spraying (IRS) for malaria. District and subdistrict-level data were obtained from the Ministry of Health in Malawi, the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and President's Malaria Initiative reports. Single intervention scores were calculated for each variable based on population coverage thresholds, and these were combined in a weighted sum to form a multiple intervention score, which was then used to produce maps, that is MISMs. Districts were further classified into four groups based on the combination of their baseline LF prevalence and multiple intervention score. RESULTS: The district- and subdistrict-level MISMs highlighted specific areas that have received high and low coverage of LF-impacting interventions. High coverage areas included the LF-onchocerciasis endemic areas in the southern region of the country and areas along the shores of Lake Malawi, where malaria vector control had been prioritised. Three districts with high baseline LF prevalence measures but low coverage of multiple interventions were identified and considered to be most at risk of ongoing transmission or re-emergence. CONCLUSIONS: These maps and district classifications will be used by LF programme managers to identify and target high-risk areas that may not have received adequate LF-impacting interventions to interrupt the transmission of the disease.

Diagnostics for schistosomiasis in Africa and Arabia: a review of present options in control and future needs for elimination.

Within the World Health Organization 2012-2020 roadmap for control and elimination of schistosomiasis, the scale-up of mass drug administration with praziquantel is set to change the epidemiological landscape across Africa and Arabia. Central in measuring progress is renewed emphasis upon diagnostics which operate at individual, community and environmental levels by assessing reductions in disease, infections and parasite transmission. However, a fundamental tension is revealed between levels for present diagnostic tools, and methods applied in control settings are not necessarily adequate for application in elimination scenarios. Indeed navigating the transition from control to elimination needs careful consideration and planning. In the present context of control, we review current options for diagnosis of schistosomiasis at different levels, highlighting several strengths and weaknesses therein. Future challenges in elimination are raised and we propose that more cost-effective diagnostics and clinical staging algorithms are needed. Using the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a contemporary example, embedding new diagnostic methods within the primary care health system is discussed with reference to both urogenital and intestinal schistosomiasis.

Impact of four years of annually repeated indoor residual spraying (IRS) with Actellic 300CS on routinely reported malaria cases in an agricultural setting in Malawi.

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is one of the main vector control tools used in malaria prevention. This study evaluates IRS in the context of a privately run campaign conducted across a low-lying, irrigated, sugarcane estate from Illovo Sugar, in the Chikwawa district of Malawi. The effect of Actellic 300CS annual spraying over four years (2015-2018) was assessed using a negative binomial mixed effects model, in an area where pyrethroid resistance has previously been identified. With an unadjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.32-0.45) and an adjusted IRR of 0.50 (95% CI: 0.42-0.59), IRS has significantly contributed to a reduction in case incidence rates at Illovo, as compared to control clinics and time points outside of the six month protective period. This study shows how the consistency of a privately run IRS campaign can improve the health of employees. More research is needed on the duration of protection and optimal timing of IRS programmes.

A baseline epidemiological survey for malaria and schistosomiasis reveals an alarming burden in primary schools despite ongoing control in Chikwawa District, southern Malawi.

Our study rationale was to establish contemporary epidemiological data on malaria and schistosomiasis among school-going children in Chikwawa District before future environmental changes associated with the Shire Valley Transformation Programme occurred. Our cross-sectional surveys tested 1134 children from 21 government-owned primary schools (approximately 50 children per school); rapid diagnostic tests for malaria (Humasis Pf/PAN) and intestinal schistosomiasis (urine-Circulating Cathodic Antigen) were used, with urine reagents strips and egg-filtration with microscopy for urogenital schistosomiasis. All infected children were treated with an appropriate dose of Lonart® (for malaria) and/or Cesol® (for schistosomiasis). Across 21 schools the overall prevalence was 9.7% (95% CI: 8.8-10.6%) for malaria, 1.9% (95% CI: 1.4-2.3%) for intestinal schistosomiasis, and 35.0% (95% CI: 33.6-36.5%) for egg-patent urogenital schistosomiasis. The prevalence of co-infection of malaria with urogenital schistosomiasis was 5.5% (95% CI: 4.8-6.2%). In a third of the schools, the prevalence of malaria and urogenital schistosomiasis was above national averages of 10.5% and 40-50%, respectively, with two schools having maxima of 36.8% and 84.5%, respectively. Set against a background of ongoing control, our study has revealed an alarming burden of malaria and schistosomiasis in southern Malawi. These findings call for an immediate mitigating response that significantly bolsters current control interventions to better safeguard children's future health.

A geospatial analysis of local intermediate snail host distributions provides insight into schistosomiasis risk within under-sampled areas of southern Lake Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Along the southern shoreline of Lake Malawi, the incidence of schistosomiasis is increasing with snails of the genera Bulinus and Biomphalaria transmitting urogenital and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively. Since the underlying distribution of snails is partially known, often being focal, developing pragmatic spatial models that interpolate snail information across under-sampled regions is required to understand and assess current and future risk of schistosomiasis. METHODS: A secondary geospatial analysis of recently collected malacological and environmental survey data was undertaken. Using a Bayesian Poisson latent Gaussian process model, abundance data were fitted for Bulinus and Biomphalaria. Interpolating the abundance of snails along the shoreline (given their relative distance along the shoreline) was achieved by smoothing, using extracted environmental rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), evapotranspiration, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil type covariate data for all predicted locations. Our adopted model used a combination of two-dimensional (2D) and one dimensional (1D) mapping. RESULTS: A significant association between normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and abundance of Bulinus spp. was detected (log risk ratio - 0.83, 95% CrI - 1.57, - 0.09). A qualitatively similar association was found between NDVI and Biomphalaria sp. but was not statistically significant (log risk ratio - 1.42, 95% CrI - 3.09, 0.10). Analyses of all other environmental data were considered non-significant. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial range in which interpolation of snail distributions is possible appears < 10km owing to fine-scale biotic and abiotic heterogeneities. The forthcoming challenge is to refine geospatial sampling frameworks with future opportunities to map schistosomiasis within actual or predicted snail distributions. In so doing, this would better reveal local environmental transmission possibilities.

Elimination of lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a parasitic disease transmitted by mosquitoes, causing severe pain, disfiguring, and disabling clinical conditions such as lymphoedema and hydrocoele. LF is a global public health problem affecting 72 countries, primarily in Africa and Asia. Since 2000, the World Health Organization (WHO) has led the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) to support all endemic regions. This paper focuses on the achievements of the Malawi LF Elimination Programme between 2000 and 2020 to eliminate LF as a public health problem, making it the second sub-Saharan country to receive validation from the WHO. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Malawi LF Programme addressed the widespread prevalence of LF infection and disease across the country, using the recommended WHO GPELF strategies and operational research initiatives in collaboration with key national and international partners. First, to stop the spread of infection (i.e., interrupt transmission) and reduce the circulating filarial antigen prevalence from as high as 74.4% to below the critical threshold of 1-2% prevalence, mass drug administration (MDA) using a two-drug regime was implemented at high coverage rates (>65%) of the total population, with supplementary interventions from other programmes (e.g., malaria vector control). The decline in prevalence was monitored and confirmed over time using several impact assessment and post-treatment surveillance tools including the standard sentinel site, spot check, and transmission assessment surveys and alternative integrated, hotspot, and easy-access group surveys. Second, to alleviate suffering of the affected populations (i.e., control morbidity) the morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) package of care was implemented. Specifically, clinical case estimates were obtained via house-to-house patient searching activities; health personnel and patients were trained in self-care protocols for lymphoedema and/or referrals to hospitals for hydrocoele surgery; and the readiness and quality of treatment and services were assessed with new survey tools. CONCLUSIONS: Malawi's elimination of LF will ensure that future generations are not infected and suffer from the disfiguring and disabling disease. However, it will be critical that the Malawi LF Elimination programme remains vigilant, focussing on post-elimination surveillance and MMDP implementation and integration into routine health systems to support long-term sustainability and ongoing success. SUMMARY: Lymphatic filariasis, also known as elephantiasis, is a disabling, disfiguring, and painful disease caused by a parasite that infected mosquitoes transmit to millions of people worldwide. Since 2000, the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) has supported endemic countries such as Malawi in south-eastern Africa, to eliminate the disease as a public health problem. The Malawi National LF Elimination Programme has worked tirelessly over the past two decades to implement the GPELF recommended strategies to interrupt the transmission with a two-drug regime, and to alleviate suffering in patients with lymphoedema and/or hydrocoele through morbidity management and disability prevention. Additionally, the LF Programme has collaborated with national and international stakeholders to implement a range of supplementary operational research projects to address outstanding knowledge gaps and programmatic barriers. In 2020, the World Health Organisation validated that Malawi had successfully eliminated LF as a public health problem, making it the second country in sub-Saharan Africa to achieve this, which is remarkable given that Malawi previously had very high infection rates. The LF Programme now remains vigilant, putting its efforts towards post-elimination surveillance and the continued implementation of care for patients with chronic conditions. Malawi's elimination of LF will ensure that future generations are not affected by this devastating disease.

Modelling the age-prevalence relationship in schistosomiasis: A secondary data analysis of school-aged-children in Mangochi District, Lake Malawi.

Schistosomiasis is an aquatic snail borne parasitic disease, with intestinal schistosomiasis (IS) and urogenital schistosomiasis (UGS) caused by Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium infections, respectively. School-aged-children (SAC) are a known vulnerable group and can also suffer from co-infections. Along the shoreline of Lake Malawi a newly emerging outbreak of IS is occurring with increasing UGS co-infection rates. Age-prevalence (co)infection profiles are not fully understood. To shed light on these (co)infection trends by Schistosoma species and by age of child, we conducted a secondary data analysis of primary epidemiological data collected from SAC in Mangochi District, Lake Malawi, as published previously. Available diagnostic data by child, were converted into binary response infection profiles for 520 children, aged 6-15, across 12 sampled schools. Generalised additive models were then fitted to mono- and dual-infections. These were used to identify consistent population trends, finding the prevalence of IS significantly increased [p = 8.45e-4] up to 11 years of age then decreasing thereafter. A similar age-prevalence association was observed for co-infection [p = 7.81e-3]. By contrast, no clear age-infection pattern for UGS was found [p = 0.114]. Peak prevalence of Schistosoma infection typically occurs around adolescence; however, in this newly established IS outbreak with rising prevalence of UGS co-infections, the peak appears to occur earlier, around the age of 11 years. As the outbreak of IS fulminates, further temporal analysis of the age-relationship with Schistosoma infection is justified. This should refer to age-prevalence models which could better reveal newly emerging transmission trends and Schistosoma species dynamics. Dynamical modelling of infections, alongside malacological niche mapping, should be considered to guide future primary data collection and intervention programmes.

Integrating vector control within an emerging agricultural system in a region of climate vulnerability in southern Malawi: A focus on malaria, schistosomiasis, and arboviral diseases.

Infectious diseases are emerging at an unprecedented rate while food production intensifies to keep pace with population growth. Large-scale irrigation schemes have the potential to permanently transform the landscape with health, nutritional and socio-economic benefits; yet, this also leads to a shift in land-use patterns that can promote endemic and invasive insect vectors and pathogens. The balance between ensuring food security and preventing emerging infectious disease is a necessity; yet the impact of irrigation on vector-borne diseases at the epidemiological, entomological and economic level is uncertain and depends on the geographical and climatological context. Here, we highlight the risk factors and challenges facing vector-borne disease surveillance and control in an emerging agricultural ecosystem in the lower Shire Valley region of southern Malawi. A phased large scale irrigation programme (The Shire Valley Transformation Project, SVTP) promises to transform over 40,000 ha into viable and resilient farmland, yet the valley is endemic for malaria and schistosomiasis and experiences frequent extreme flooding events following tropical cyclones. The latter exacerbate vector-borne disease risk while simultaneously making any empirical assessment of that risk a significant hurdle. We propose that the SVTP provides a unique opportunity to take a One Health approach at mitigating vector-borne disease risk while maintaining agricultural output. A long-term and multi-disciplinary approach with buy-in from multiple stakeholders will be needed to achieve this goal.

Optimising passive surveillance of a neglected tropical disease in the era of elimination: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance is an essential component of global programs to eliminate infectious diseases and avert epidemics of (re-)emerging diseases. As the numbers of cases decline, costs of treatment and control diminish but those for surveillance remain high even after the 'last' case. Reducing surveillance may risk missing persistent or (re-)emerging foci of disease. Here, we use a simulation-based approach to determine the minimal number of passive surveillance sites required to ensure maximum coverage of a population at-risk (PAR) of an infectious disease. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For this study, we use Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) in north-western Uganda, a neglected tropical disease (NTD) which has been reduced to historically low levels (<1000 cases/year globally), as an example. To quantify travel time to diagnostic facilities, a proxy for surveillance coverage, we produced a high spatial-resolution resistance surface and performed cost-distance analyses. We simulated travel time for the PAR with different numbers (1-170) and locations (170,000 total placement combinations) of diagnostic facilities, quantifying the percentage of the PAR within 1h and 5h travel of the facilities, as per in-country targets. Our simulations indicate that a 70% reduction (51/170) in diagnostic centres still exceeded minimal targets of coverage even for remote populations, with >95% of a total PAR of ~3million individuals living ≤1h from a diagnostic centre, and we demonstrate an approach to best place these facilities, informing a minimal impact scale back. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight that surveillance of g-HAT in north-western Uganda can be scaled back without substantially reducing coverage of the PAR. The methodology described can contribute to cost-effective and equable strategies for the surveillance of NTDs and other infectious diseases approaching elimination or (re-)emergence.

Impact of IRS: Four-years of entomological surveillance of the Indian Visceral Leishmaniases elimination programme.

BACKGROUND: In 2005, Bangladesh, India and Nepal agreed to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem. The approach to this was through improved case detection and treatment, and controlling transmission by the sand fly vector Phlebotomus argentipes, with indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. Initially, India applied DDT with stirrup pumps for IRS, however, this did not reduce transmission. After 2015 onwards, the pyrethroid alpha-cypermethrin was applied with compression pumps, and entomological surveillance was initiated in 2016. METHODS: Eight sentinel sites were established in the Indian states of Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. IRS coverage was monitored by household survey, quality of insecticide application was measured by HPLC, presence and abundance of the VL vector was monitored by CDC light traps, insecticide resistance was measured with WHO diagnostic assays and case incidence was determined from the VL case register KAMIS. RESULTS: Complete treatment of houses with IRS increased across all sites from 57% in 2016 to 70% of houses in 2019, rising to >80% if partial house IRS coverage is included (except West Bengal). The quality of insecticide application has improved compared to previous studies, average doses of insecticide on filters papers ranged from 1.52 times the target dose of 25mg/m2 alpha-cypermethrin in 2019 to 1.67 times in 2018. Resistance to DDT has continued to increase, but the vector was not resistant to carbamates, organophosphates or pyrethroids. The annual and seasonal abundance of P. argentipes declined between 2016 to 2019 with an overall infection rate of 0.03%. This was associated with a decline in VL incidence for the blocks represented by the sentinel sites from 1.16 per 10,000 population in 2016 to 0.51 per 10,000 in 2019. CONCLUSION: Through effective case detection and management reducing the infection reservoirs for P. argentipes in the human population combined with IRS keeping P. argentipes abundance and infectivity low has reduced VL transmission. This combination of effective case management and vector control has now brought India within reach of the VL elimination targets.

Quantifying geographic accessibility to improve efficiency of entomological monitoring.

BACKGROUND: Vector-borne diseases are important causes of mortality and morbidity in humans and livestock, particularly for poorer communities and countries in the tropics. Large-scale programs against these diseases, for example malaria, dengue and African trypanosomiasis, include vector control, and assessing the impact of this intervention requires frequent and extensive monitoring of disease vector abundance. Such monitoring can be expensive, especially in the later stages of a successful program where numbers of vectors and cases are low. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a system that allows the identification of monitoring sites where pre-intervention densities of vectors are predicted to be high, and travel cost to sites is low, highlighting the most efficient locations for longitudinal monitoring. Using remotely sensed imagery and an image classification algorithm, we mapped landscape resistance associated with on- and off-road travel for every gridded location (3m and 0.5m grid cells) within Koboko district, Uganda. We combine the accessibility surface with pre-existing estimates of tsetse abundance and propose a stratified sampling approach to determine the most efficient locations for longitudinal data collection. Our modelled predictions were validated against empirical measurements of travel-time and existing maps of road networks. We applied this approach in northern Uganda where a large-scale vector control program is being implemented to control human African trypanosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease (NTD) caused by trypanosomes transmitted by tsetse flies. Our accessibility surfaces indicate a high performance when compared to empirical data, with remote sensing identifying a further ~70% of roads than existing networks. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: By integrating such estimates with predictions of tsetse abundance, we propose a methodology to determine the optimal placement of sentinel monitoring sites for evaluating control programme efficacy, moving from a nuanced, ad-hoc approach incorporating intuition, knowledge of vector ecology and local knowledge of geographic accessibility, to a reproducible, quantifiable one.

Impact of tiny targets on Glossina fuscipes quanzensis, the primary vector of human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Over the past 20 years there has been a >95% reduction in the number of Gambian Human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) cases reported globally, largely as a result of large-scale active screening and treatment programmes. There are however still foci where the disease persists, particularly in parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Additional control efforts such as tsetse control using Tiny Targets may therefore be required to achieve g-HAT elimination goals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of Tiny Targets within DRC. In 2015-2017, pre- and post-intervention tsetse abundance data were collected from 1,234 locations across three neighbouring Health Zones (Yasa Bonga, Mosango, Masi Manimba). Remotely sensed dry season data were combined with pre-intervention tsetse presence/absence data from 332 locations within a species distribution modelling framework to produce a habitat suitability map. The impact of Tiny Targets on the tsetse population was then evaluated by fitting a generalised linear mixed model to the relative fly abundance data collected from 889 post-intervention monitoring sites within Yasa Bonga, with habitat suitability, proximity to the intervention and intervention duration as covariates. Immediately following the introduction of the intervention, we observe a dramatic reduction in fly catches by > 85% (pre-intervention: 0.78 flies/trap/day, 95% CI 0.676-0.900; 3 month post-intervention: 0.11 flies/trap/day, 95% CI 0.070-0.153) which is sustained throughout the study period. Declines in catches were negatively associated with proximity to Tiny Targets, and while habitat suitability is positively associated with abundance its influence is reduced in the presence of the intervention. This study adds to the body of evidence demonstrating the impact of Tiny Targets on tsetse across a range of ecological settings, and further characterises the factors which modify its impact. The habitat suitability maps have the potential to guide the expansion of tsetse control activities in this area.