Apixaban to Prevent Recurrence After Cryptogenic Stroke in Patients With Atrial Cardiopathy: The ARCADIA Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Atrial cardiopathy is associated with stroke in the absence of clinically apparent atrial fibrillation. It is unknown whether anticoagulation, which has proven benefit in atrial fibrillation, prevents stroke in patients with atrial cardiopathy and no atrial fibrillation. Objective: To compare anticoagulation vs antiplatelet therapy for secondary stroke prevention in patients with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, double-blind, phase 3 randomized clinical trial of 1015 participants with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy, defined as P-wave terminal force greater than 5000 µV × ms in electrocardiogram lead V1, serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level greater than 250 pg/mL, or left atrial diameter index of 3 cm/m2 or greater on echocardiogram. Participants had no evidence of atrial fibrillation at the time of randomization. Enrollment and follow-up occurred from February 1, 2018, through February 28, 2023, at 185 sites in the National Institutes of Health StrokeNet and the Canadian Stroke Consortium. Interventions: Apixaban, 5 mg or 2.5 mg, twice daily (n = 507) vs aspirin, 81 mg, once daily (n = 508). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary efficacy outcome in a time-to-event analysis was recurrent stroke. All participants, including those diagnosed with atrial fibrillation after randomization, were analyzed according to the groups to which they were randomized. The primary safety outcomes were symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and other major hemorrhage. Results: With 1015 of the target 1100 participants enrolled and mean follow-up of 1.8 years, the trial was stopped for futility after a planned interim analysis. The mean (SD) age of participants was 68.0 (11.0) years, 54.3% were female, and 87.5% completed the full duration of follow-up. Recurrent stroke occurred in 40 patients in the apixaban group (annualized rate, 4.4%) and 40 patients in the aspirin group (annualized rate, 4.4%) (hazard ratio, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.64-1.55]). Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 0 patients taking apixaban and 7 patients taking aspirin (annualized rate, 1.1%). Other major hemorrhages occurred in 5 patients taking apixaban (annualized rate, 0.7%) and 5 patients taking aspirin (annualized rate, 0.8%) (hazard ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.29-3.52]). Conclusions and Relevance: In patients with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy without atrial fibrillation, apixaban did not significantly reduce recurrent stroke risk compared with aspirin. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03192215.

Using Epidemiological Data to Inform Clinical Trial Feasibility Assessments: A Case Study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trial enrollment and completion is challenging, with nearly half of all trials not being completed or not completed on time. In 2014, the National Institutes of Health StrokeNet in collaboration with stroke epidemiologists from GCNKSS (Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study) began providing proposed clinical trials with formal trial feasibility assessments. Herein, we describe the process of prospective feasibility analyses using epidemiological data that can be used to improve enrollment and increase the likelihood a trial is completed. METHODS: In 2014, DEFUSE 3 (Endovascular Therapy Following Imaging Evaluation for Ischemic Stroke 3) trialists, National Institutes of Health StrokeNet, and stroke epidemiologists from GCNKSS collaborated to evaluate the initial inclusion/exclusion criteria for the DEFUSE 3 study. Trial criteria were discussed and an assessment was completed to evaluate the percent of the stroke population that might be eligible for the study. The DEFUSE 3 trial was stopped early with the publication of DAWN (Thrombectomy 6 to 24 Hours After Stroke With a Mismatch Between Deficit and Infarct), and the Wilcoxon rank-sum statistic was used to analyze whether the trial would have been stopped had the proposed changes not been made, following the DEFUSE 3 statistical analysis plan. RESULTS: After initial epidemiological analysis, 2.4% of patients with acute stroke in the GCNKSS population would have been predicted to be eligible for the study. After discussion with primary investigators and modifying 4 key exclusion criteria (upper limit of age increased to 90 years, baseline modified Rankin Scale broadened to 0-2, time since last well expanded to 16 hours, and decreased lower limit of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score to <6), the number predicted to be eligible for the trial increased to 4%. At the time of trial conclusion, 57% of the enrolled patients qualified only by the modified criteria, and the trial was stopped at an interim analysis that demonstrated efficacy. We estimated that the Wilcoxon rank-sum value for the unadjusted predicted enrollment would not have crossed the threshold for efficacy and the trial not stopped. CONCLUSIONS: Objectively assessing trial inclusion/exclusion criteria using a population-based resource in a collaborative and iterative process including epidemiologists can lead to improved recruitment and can increase the likelihood of successful trial completion.

Ischemic Stroke and Bleeding: Clinical Benefit of Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation After Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

Background and Purpose- Patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are at risk for ischemic events. While risk calculators (CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED) have been validated to assess risk for ischemic stroke and major bleeding in AF patients, decisions about anticoagulation must consider the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation. Furthermore, stroke and bleeding risk are highly correlated, making decisions more difficult. Methods- We examined patients in the GERFHS III study (Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors for Hemorrhagic Stroke)-a population-based retrospective study of spontaneous ICH patients without a structural or traumatic cause in the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region between July 2008 and December 2012. CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-B(L)ED (minus L because labile international normalized ratio was unavailable) scores were calculated for ICH patients with AF. Using a Markov state transition model, we estimated net clinical benefit of anticoagulation relative to no treatment in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We defined minimal clinically relevant benefit as 0.1 QALYs. Results- Among 1186 cases of spontaneous ICH, 95 cases had AF and met our survival criteria. Within 1 year, 8 of 95 (8%) would be expected to have a major bleeding event on anticoagulation, and 5 of 95 (5%) of patients would be expected to have an ischemic stroke off anticoagulation. Sixty-eight of 95 (71%) patients would have higher risk for major bleeding than for ischemic stroke. Anticoagulation with directly acting anticoagulants would result in no clinically significant gain or loss in 73%. Roughly 12% would gain >0.1 QALYs, and 15% would lose >0.1 QALYs. Among patients receiving aspirin, most have no significant net clinical benefit or loss. Overall, anticoagulation of the entire cohort would result in an aggregate loss of 0.92 QALYs. Conclusions- Our analysis suggests that universal anticoagulation after ICH would be associated with a net loss of QALY. Additional factors should be considered before anticoagulating patients with AF after ICH. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00930280.

Effect of COVID-19 on Emergent Stroke Care: A Regional Experience.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Anecdotal evidence suggests that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic mitigation efforts may inadvertently discourage patients from seeking treatment for stroke with resultant increased morbidity and mortality. Analysis of regional data, while hospital capacities for acute stroke care remained fully available, offers an opportunity to assess this. We report regional Stroke Team acute activations and reperfusion treatments during COVID-19 mitigation activities. METHODS: Using case log data prospectively collected by a Stroke Team exclusively serving ≈2 million inhabitants and 30 healthcare facilities, we retrospectively reviewed volumes of consultations and reperfusion treatments for acute ischemic stroke. We compared volumes before and after announcements of COVID-19 mitigation measures and the prior calendar year. RESULTS: Compared with the 10 weeks prior, stroke consultations declined by 39% (95% CI, 32%-46%) in the 5 weeks after announcement of statewide school and restaurant closures in Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana. Results compared with the prior year and time trend analyses were consistent. Reperfusion treatments also appeared to decline by 31% (95% CI, 3%-51%), and specifically thrombolysis by 33% (95% CI, 4%-55%), but this finding had less precision. CONCLUSIONS: Upon the announcement of measures to mitigate COVID-19, regional acute stroke consultations declined significantly. Reperfusion treatment rates, particularly thrombolysis, also appeared to decline qualitatively, and this finding requires further study. Urgent public education is necessary to mitigate a possible crisis of avoiding essential emergency care due to COVID-19.

White Matter Lesion Severity is Associated with Intraventricular Hemorrhage in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) and white matter lesion (WML) severity are associated with higher rates of death and disability in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). A prior report identified an increased risk of IVH with greater WML burden but did not control for location of ICH. We sought to determine whether a higher degree of WML is associated with a higher risk of IVH after controlling for ICH location. METHODS: Utilizing the patient population from 2 large ICH studies; the Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors for Hemorrhagic Stroke (GERFHS III) Study and the Ethnic/Racial Variations of Intracerebral Hemorrhage study, we graded WML using the Van Swieten Scale (0-1 for mild, 2 for moderate, and 3-4 for severe WML) and presence or absence of IVH in baseline CT scans. We used multivariable regression models to adjust for relevant covariates. RESULTS: Among 3023 ICH patients, 1260 (41.7%) had presence of IVH. In patients with IVH, the proportion of severe WML (28.6%) was higher compared with patients without IVH (21.8%) (P < .0001). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that moderate-severe WML, deep ICH, and increasing ICH volume were independently associated with presence of IVH. We found an increased risk of IVH with moderate-severe WML (OR = 1.38; 95%Cl 1.03-1.86, P = .0328) in the subset of lobar hemorrhages. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate to severe WML is a risk for IVH. Even in lobar ICH hemorrhages, severe WML leads to an independent increased risk for ventricular rupture.

Omega-3 Fatty Acids and Risk of Ischemic Stroke in REGARDS.

We examined associations between lipidomic profiles and incident ischemic stroke in the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort. Plasma lipids (n = 195) were measured from baseline blood samples, and lipids were consolidated into underlying factors using exploratory factor analysis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to test associations between lipid factors and incident stroke, linear regressions to determine associations between dietary intake and lipid factors, and the inverse odds ratio weighting (IORW) approach to test mediation. The study followed participants over a median (IQR) of 7 (3.4-11) years, and the case-cohort substudy included 1075 incident ischemic stroke and 968 non-stroke participants. One lipid factor, enriched for docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, an omega-3 fatty acid), was inversely associated with stroke risk in a base model (HR = 0.84; 95%CI 0.79-0.90; P = 8.33 × 10-8) and fully adjusted model (HR = 0.88; 95%CI 0.83-0.94; P = 2.79 × 10-4). This factor was associated with a healthy diet pattern (ß = 0.21; 95%CI 0.12-0.30; P = 2.06 × 10-6), specifically with fish intake (ß = 1.96; 95%CI 0.95-2.96; P = 1.36 × 10-4). DHA was a mediator between fish intake and incident ischemic stroke (30% P = 5.78 × 10-3). Taken together, DHA-containing plasma lipids were inversely associated with incident ischemic stroke and mediated the relationship between fish intake and stroke risk.

Temporal Trends and Racial Disparities in Long-Term Survival After Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Few studies have examined trends and disparities in long-term outcome after stroke in a representative US population. We used a population-based stroke study in the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky region to examine trends and racial disparities in poststroke 5-year mortality. METHODS: All patients with acute ischemic strokes (AISs) and intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs) among residents ≥20 years old were ascertained using ICD codes and physician-adjudicated using a consistent case definition during 5 periods: July 1993-June 1994 and calendar years 1999, 2005, 2010, and 2015. Race was obtained from the medical record; only those identified as White or Black were included. Premorbid functional status was assessed using the modified Rankin Scale, with a score of 0-1 being considered "good." Mortality was assessed with the National Death Index. Trends and racial disparities for each subtype were analyzed with logistic regression. RESULTS: We identified 8,428 AIS cases (19.3% Black, 56.3% female, median age 72) and 1,501 ICH cases (23.5% Black, 54.8% female, median age 72). Among patients with AIS, 5-year mortality improved after adjustment for age, race, and sex (53% in 1993/94 to 48.3% in 2015, overall effect of study year p = 0.009). The absolute decline in 5-year mortality in patients with AIS was larger than what would be expected in the general population (5.1% vs 2.8%). Black individuals were at a higher risk of death after AIS (odds ratio [OR] 1.23, 95% CI 1.08-1.39) even after adjustment for age and sex, and this effect was consistent across study years. When premorbid functional status and comorbidities were included in the model, the primary effect of Black race was attenuated but race interacted with sex and premorbid functional status. Among male patients with a good baseline functional status, Black race remained associated with 5-year mortality (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.7, p = 0.002). There were no changes in 5-year mortality after ICH over time (64.4% in 1993/94 to 69.2% in 2015, overall effect of study year p = 0.32). DISCUSSION: Long-term survival improved after AIS but not after ICH. Black individuals, particularly Black male patients with good premorbid function, have a higher mortality after AIS, and this disparity did not change over time.

Racial Disparities in Blood Pressure at Time of Acute Ischemic Stroke Presentation: A Population Study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a stroke risk factor with known disparities in prevalence and management between Black and White patients. We sought to identify if racial differences in presenting blood pressure (BP) during acute ischemic stroke exist. METHODS AND RESULTS: Adults with acute ischemic stroke presenting to an emergency department within 24 hours of last known normal during study epochs 2005, 2010, and 2015 within the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study were included. Demographics, histories, arrival BP, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and time from last known normal were collected. Multivariable linear regression was used to determine differences in mean BP between Black and White patients, adjusting for age, sex, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, history of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, stroke, body mass index, and study epoch. Of 4048 patients, 853 Black and 3195 White patients were included. In adjusted analysis, Black patients had higher presenting systolic BP (161 mm Hg [95% CI, 159-164] versus 158 mm Hg [95% CI, 157-159], P<0.01), diastolic BP (86 mm Hg [95% CI, 85-88] versus 83 mm Hg [95% CI, 82-84], P<0.01), and mean arterial pressure (111 mm Hg [95% CI, 110-113] versus 108 mm Hg [95% CI, 107-109], P<0.01) compared with White patients. In adjusted subanalysis of patients <4.5 hours from last known normal, diastolic BP (88 mm Hg [95% CI, 86-90] versus 83 mm Hg [95% CI, 82-84], P<0.01) and mean arterial pressure (112 mm Hg [95% CI, 110-114] versus 108 mm Hg [95% CI, 107-109], P<0.01) were also higher in Black patients. CONCLUSIONS: This population-based study suggests differences in presenting BP between Black and White patients during acute ischemic stroke. Further study is needed to determine whether these differences influence clinical decision-making, outcome, or clinical trial eligibility.

Impact of Poverty on Stroke Recurrence: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Poverty is associated with greater stroke incidence. The relationship between poverty and stroke recurrence is less clear. METHODS: In this population-based study, incident strokes within the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region were ascertained during the 2015 study period and followed up for recurrence until December 31, 2018. The primary exposure was neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES), defined by the percentage of households below the federal poverty line in each census tract in 4 categories (≤5%, >5%-10%, >10%-25%, >25%). Poisson regression models provided recurrence rate estimates per 100,000 residents using population data from the 2015 5-year American Community Survey, adjusting for age, sex, and race. In a secondary analysis, Cox models allowed for the inclusion of vascular risk factors in the assessment of recurrence risk by nSES among those with incident stroke. RESULTS: Of 2,125 patients with incident stroke, 245 had a recurrent stroke during the study period. Poorer nSES was associated with increased stroke recurrence, with rates of 12.5, 17.5, 25.4, and 29.9 per 100,000 in census tracts with ≤5%, >5%-10%, >10%-25%, and >25% below the poverty line, respectively (p < 0.01). The relative risk (95% CI) for recurrent stroke among Black vs White individuals was 2.54 (1.91-3.37) before adjusting for nSES, and 2.00 (1.47-2.74) after adjusting for nSES, a 35.1% decrease. In the secondary analysis, poorer nSES (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.10-2.76 for lowest vs highest category) and Black race (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.01-1.70) were both independently associated with recurrence risk, though neither retained significance after full adjustment. Age, diabetes, and left ventricular hypertrophy were associated with increased recurrence risk in fully adjusted models. DISCUSSION: Residents of poorer neighborhoods had a dose-dependent increase in stroke recurrence risk, and neighborhood poverty accounted for approximately one-third of the excess risk among Black individuals. These results highlight the importance of poverty, race, and the intersection of the 2 as potent drivers of stroke recurrence.