Challenges to the Application of Spatially Explicit Stochastic Simulation Models for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Endemic Settings: A Systematic Review.

Simulation modeling has become common for estimating the spread of highly contagious animal diseases. Several models have been developed to mimic the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in specific regions or countries, conduct risk assessment, analyze outbreaks using historical data or hypothetical scenarios, assist in policy decisions during epidemics, formulate preparedness plans, and evaluate economic impacts. Majority of the available FMD simulation models were designed for and applied in disease-free countries, while there has been limited use of such models in FMD endemic countries. This paper's objective was to report the findings from a study conducted to review the existing published original research literature on spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) models of FMD spread, focusing on assessing these models for their potential use in endemic settings. The goal was to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt these SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings. This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and three databases were searched, which resulted in 1176 citations. Eighty citations finally met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis, identifying nine unique SESS models. These SESS models were assessed for their potential application in endemic settings. The assessed SESS models can be adapted for use in FMD endemic countries by modifying the underlying code to include multiple cocirculating serotypes, routine prophylactic vaccination (RPV), and livestock population dynamics to more realistically mimic the endemic characteristics of FMD. The application of SESS models in endemic settings will help evaluate strategies for FMD control, which will improve livestock health, provide economic gains for producers, help alleviate poverty and hunger, and will complement efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

A needs-assessment and demographic survey of infection-control and disease awareness in western US animal shelters.

A cross-sectional needs-assessment survey was used to characterize animal shelters in a 6-state region in the western US and describe infection-control practices and disease awareness. Survey questions focused on shelter demographics, infection-control practices and policies, awareness and concern over infectious and zoonotic diseases, staff and volunteer training relating to infection-control and disease awareness, use of diagnostic tools, and isolation procedures and protocols. Fifty percent of shelters responded to the survey and represented a wide variety of shelter types, sizes and locations. The top-three diseases of concern to shelters were feline upper respiratory disease (FURD), canine parvovirus and ringworm. Concern over these diseases was greater in open-admission shelters (compared to limited admission or no-kill/sanctuary) (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.1-12.5) and in shelters with a desire for more zoonotic-disease training (OR=6.1, 95% CI 1.5-24.8) (compared to shelters desiring infectious-disease training, training on cleaning and disinfection or those who have no need for further training). In 45% of responding shelters many to most animals arrive with infectious diseases. Written protocols for preventive medicine exist in 88% of shelters, cleaning and disinfection protocols in 75%, specific disease protocols for outbreak situations in 36% and infection-control manuals in 15%. Veterinarians are in charge of infection-control in 6% of shelters. Approximately 45% of shelters vaccinate dogs and cats for rabies. Infectious-disease training is provided to 30% of staff and 35% of volunteers upon hire. Overall, volunteers received less training in infectious- and zoonotic-disease identification, prevention and control than staff members. Ninety percent of shelters said they would benefit from training in infectious and zoonotic disease. Results from this study can be used to assess and address needs in animal shelters relating to infection-control, infectious and zoonotic-disease awareness and can help guide development of shelter staff and volunteer training.