Informing the public health response to COVID-19: a systematic review of risk factors for disease, severity, and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has challenged public health agencies globally. In order to effectively target government responses, it is critical to identify the individuals most at risk of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), developing severe clinical signs, and mortality. We undertook a systematic review of the literature to present the current status of scientific knowledge in these areas and describe the need for unified global approaches, moving forwards, as well as lessons learnt for future pandemics. METHODS: Medline, Embase and Global Health were searched to the end of April 2020, as well as the Web of Science. Search terms were specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19. Comparative studies of risk factors from any setting, population group and in any language were included. Titles, abstracts and full texts were screened by two reviewers and extracted in duplicate into a standardised form. Data were extracted on risk factors for COVID-19 disease, severe disease, or death and were narratively and descriptively synthesised. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and thirty-eight papers were identified post-deduplication. Thirty-three met our inclusion criteria, of which 26 were from China. Six assessed the risk of contracting the disease, 20 the risk of having severe disease and ten the risk of dying. Age, gender and co-morbidities were commonly assessed as risk factors. The weight of evidence showed increasing age to be associated with severe disease and mortality, and general comorbidities with mortality. Only seven studies presented multivariable analyses and power was generally limited. A wide range of definitions were used for disease severity. CONCLUSIONS: The volume of literature generated in the short time since the appearance of SARS-CoV-2 has been considerable. Many studies have sought to document the risk factors for COVID-19 disease, disease severity and mortality; age was the only risk factor based on robust studies and with a consistent body of evidence. Mechanistic studies are required to understand why age is such an important risk factor. At the start of pandemics, large, standardised, studies that use multivariable analyses are urgently needed so that the populations most at risk can be rapidly protected. REGISTRATION: This review was registered on PROSPERO as CRD42020177714 .

Caesarean birth and risk of subsequent preterm birth: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk of spontaneous and medically indicated preterm birth associated with mode of birth in previous term-born pregnancy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Two UK maternity units. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: A total of 16 340 women with first two consecutive singleton births and the first birth at term. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected clinical data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of spontaneous preterm birth and medically indicated preterm birth at less than 37 weeks of gestation after term birth, in relation to mode of birth in first pregnancy. Subgroup analysis on cervical dilatation at the time of first caesarean birth. RESULTS: Compared with vaginal birth, emergency caesarean birth at full dilatation was associated with an increase in spontaneous preterm birth (2.3% vaginal birth versus 4.5% full dilatation caesarean; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.29, 95% CI 2.02-5.13, P < 0.001). Elective caesarean, emergency caesarean at <4 cm dilatation, and emergency caesarean at 4-9 cm dilatation were associated with increased medically indicated preterm birth (0.8% vaginal births versus 1.9% elective caesarean, 3.3% <4 cm caesarean, 1.3% 4-9 cm caesarean; aOR 2.30, 95% CI 1.19-4.15, P = 0.009; aOR 4.68, 95% CI 2.98-7.24, P < 0.001; and aOR 2.43, 95% CI 1.43-4.00, P = 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Term caesarean in the first stage of labour or performed prelabour is associated with medically indicated preterm birth. Term caesarean in the second stage of labour is associated with spontaneous preterm birth. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Caesarean in the second stage of labour is associated with spontaneous preterm birth.

Induction of labour during the COVID-19 pandemic: a national survey of impact on practice in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Induction of labour (IOL) is one of the most commonly performed interventions in maternity care, with outpatient cervical ripening increasingly offered as an option for women undergoing IOL. The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the context of practice and the option of returning home for cervical ripening may now assume greater significance. This work aimed to examine whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed practice around IOL in the UK. METHOD: We used an online questionnaire to survey senior obstetricians and midwives at all 156 UK NHS Trusts and Boards that currently offer maternity services. Responses were analysed to produce descriptive statistics, with free text responses analysed using a conventional content analysis approach. FINDINGS: Responses were received from 92 of 156 UK Trusts and Boards, a 59% response rate. Many Trusts and Boards reported no change to their IOL practice, however 23% reported change in methods used for cervical ripening; 28% a change in criteria for home cervical ripening; 28% stated that more women were returning home during cervical ripening; and 24% noted changes to women's response to recommendations for IOL. Much of the change was reported as happening in response to attempts to minimise hospital attendance and restrictions on birth partners accompanying women. CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic has changed practice around induction of labour, although this varied significantly between NHS Trusts and Boards. There is a lack of formal evidence to support decision-making around outpatient cervical ripening: the basis on which changes were implemented and what evidence was used to inform decisions is not clear.

National population prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among pregnant women in Scotland during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective national serosurvey.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among pregnant women in the Scottish population during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective national serosurvey. METHODS: We tested 13,428 residual samples retrieved from pregnant women participating in the first trimester combined ultrasound and biochemical screening for fetal trisomy across Scotland for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over a 6-month period from November 2020 to April 2021. Seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for the sensitivity and specificity of the assays and weighted to reference populations. RESULTS: Seroprevalence rates in the antenatal samples significantly increased from 5.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.7%-6.5%) in the 5-week period up to and including International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Week 51 (w/b Monday 14 December 2020) to 11.3% (95% CI 10.1%-12.6%) in the 5-week period up to and including ISO Week 14 (w/b Monday 5 April 2021). Increasing seroprevalence trends across the second wave were observed among all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: By the end of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, approximately one in 10 women tested around the end of the first trimester of pregnancy had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that the vast majority were still susceptible to COVID-19 as they progressed to the later stages of pregnancy, when risks from infection are elevated for both mother and baby.

First-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines and thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events in Scotland.

Reports of ChAdOx1 vaccine-associated thrombocytopenia and vascular adverse events have led to some countries restricting its use. Using a national prospective cohort, we estimated associations between exposure to first-dose ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 vaccination and hematological and vascular adverse events using a nested incident-matched case-control study and a confirmatory self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis. An association was found between ChAdOx1 vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) (0-27 d after vaccination; adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 5.77, 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.41-13.83), with an estimated incidence of 1.13 (0.62-1.63) cases per 100,000 doses. An SCCS analysis confirmed that this was unlikely due to bias (RR = 1.98 (1.29-3.02)). There was also an increased risk for arterial thromboembolic events (aRR = 1.22, 1.12-1.34) 0-27 d after vaccination, with an SCCS RR of 0.97 (0.93-1.02). For hemorrhagic events 0-27 d after vaccination, the aRR was 1.48 (1.12-1.96), with an SCCS RR of 0.95 (0.82-1.11). A first dose of ChAdOx1 was found to be associated with small increased risks of ITP, with suggestive evidence of an increased risk of arterial thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events. The attenuation of effect found in the SCCS analysis means that there is the potential for overestimation of the reported results, which might indicate the presence of some residual confounding or confounding by indication. Public health authorities should inform their jurisdictions of these relatively small increased risks associated with ChAdOx1. No positive associations were seen between BNT162b2 and thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events.

The clinical use of corticosteroids in pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: The use of antenatal steroid therapy is common in pregnancy. In early pregnancy, steroids may be used in women for the treatment of recurrent miscarriage or fetal abnormalities such as congenital adrenal hyperplasia. In mid-late pregnancy, the antenatal administration of corticosteroids to expectant mothers in anticipation of preterm birth is one of the most important advances in perinatal medicine; antenatal corticosteroids are now standard care for pregnancies at risk of premature delivery in high- and middle-income countries. The widespread uptake of this therapy is due to a compelling body of evidence demonstrating improved neonatal outcomes following antenatal corticosteroid exposure, stemming most notably from corticosteroid-driven maturation of fetal pulmonary function. As we approach the 50th anniversary of landmark work in this area by Liggins and Howie, it is apparent that much remains to be understood with regards to how we might best apply antenatal corticosteroid therapy to improve pregnancy outcomes at both early and mid to late gestation. METHODS: Drawing on advances in laboratory science, pre-clinical and clinical studies, we performed a narrative review of the scientific literature to provide a timely update on the benefits, risks and uncertainties regarding antenatal corticosteroid use in pregnancy. Three, well-established therapeutic uses of antenatal steroids, namely recurrent miscarriage, congenital adrenal hyperplasia and preterm birth, were selected to frame the review. RESULTS: Even the most well-established antenatal steroid therapies lack the comprehensive pharmacokinetic and dose-response data necessary to optimize dosing regimens. New insights into complex, tissue-specific corticosteroid signalling by genomic-dependent and independent mechanisms have not been used to inform corticosteroid treatment strategies. There is growing evidence that some fetal corticosteroid treatments are either ineffective, or may result in adverse outcomes, in addition to lasting epigenetic changes in a variety of homeostatic mechanisms. Nowhere is the need to better understand the intricacies of corticosteroid therapy better conveyed than in the findings of Althabe and colleagues who recently reported an increase in overall neonatal mortality and maternal morbidity in association with antenatal corticosteroid administration in low-resource settings. CONCLUSIONS: New research to clarify the benefits and potential risks of antenatal corticosteroid therapy is urgently needed, especially with regard to corticosteroid use in low-resource environments. We conclude that there is both significant scope and an urgent need for further research-informed refinement to the use of antenatal corticosteroids in pregnancy.

The effect of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids on the inflammatory response of the amnion.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of omega-3 PUFAs, eicosapentanoic acid (EPA) and docosohexanoic acid (DHA) on inflammatory cytokine production in the amnion. STUDY DESIGN: Amnion explants were obtained at elective caesarean sections and cultured in vitro with EPA and DHA. IL-8 and IL-6 secretion was determined by ELISA, the role of PPARγ was investigated using specific agonists and antagonists and activity of MMP assessed by gelatin zymography. RESULTS: A combination of EPA and DHA significantly reduced the concentration of IL-8 and IL-6 released into the supernatant compared to untreated controls (p<0.001). Stimulation of PPARγ with troglitazone reduced IL-8 production, and the PPARγ antagonist GW9662 partially reversed this effect. The activity of MMP-9 was also significantly reduced by treatment with EPA and DHA in combination compared to untreated control (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: The omega-3 PUFAs EPA and DHA decrease the inflammatory response of the amnion, and this may be partially mediated through PPARγ.

Embryonic chick muscle produces an FGF-like activity.

Normal and pathological formation of blood vessels is of considerable interest both in terms of basic scientific processes and clinical applications. Angiogenic events in the adult are likely to represent persistence of developmental mechanisms, and embryos are therefore a suitable experimental model for these processes. Among embryonic tissues, muscle is particularly appropriate for investigation, since it is highly vascularised from early stages. There are a number of competing explanations of how this process is controlled. Bioassays offer advantages over conventional molecular localisation techniques, in that they reveal the presence of active processed forms of the molecules under study, rather than non-processed forms, or non-translated messages. Using these techniques, we report here that embryonic chick muscle, taken from the stages at which blood vessels are forming, produces an angiogenic activity on the chick chorioallantoic membrane (CAM), and transforms NR6 cells in soft agar. Basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) is shown to be angiogenic on the CAM in the same way, and also transforms NR6 cells (NR6 cells lack functional epidermal growth factor/transforming growth factor-a receptors, and are believed to respond only to bFGF in this way). Anti-bFGF removes the transforming activity of the embryonic muscle. We conclude that this represents evidence that embryonic chick muscle is producing an FGF-like molecule which is capable of acting as an angiogenic agent at the appropriate times in development.