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BACKGROUND: Identification of multiple sclerosis (MS) cases in routine healthcare data repositories remains challenging. MS can have a protracted diagnostic process and is rarely identified as a primary reason for admission to the hospital. Difficulties in identification are compounded in systems that do not include insurance or payer information concerning drug treatments or non-notifiable disease. AIM: To develop an algorithm to reliably identify MS cases within a national health data bank. METHOD: Retrospective analysis of the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank was used to identify MS cases using a novel algorithm. Sensitivity and specificity were tested using two existing independent MS datasets, one clinically validated and population-based and a second from a self-registered MS national registry. RESULTS: From 4 757 428 records, the algorithm identified 6194 living cases of MS within Wales on 31 December 2020 (prevalence 221.65 (95% CI 216.17 to 227.24) per 100 000). Case-finding sensitivity and specificity were 96.8% and 99.9% for the clinically validated population-based cohort and sensitivity was 96.7% for the self-declared registry population. DISCUSSION: The algorithm successfully identified MS cases within the SAIL databank with high sensitivity and specificity, verified by two independent populations and has important utility in large-scale epidemiological studies of MS.
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BACKGROUND: A contemporary understanding of disability evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS) is an essential tool for individual disease management and planning of interventional studies. We have used prospectively collected longitudinal data to analyse disability progression and variation in a British MS cohort. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 4.0 and 6.0. A continuous Markov model was used to estimate transitional probabilities for individual EDSS scores. Models were adjusted for age at MS onset, sex and disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) exposure. RESULTS: 2135 patients were included (1487 (70%) female, 1922 (89%) relapsing onset). 865 (41%) had used DMTs. Median time to EDSS 4.0 and 6.0 was 18.2 years (95% CI 16.3 to 20.2) and 22.1 years (95% CI 20.5 to 24.5). In the Markov model, the median time spent at EDSS scores of <6 (0.40-0.98 year) was shorter than the time spent at EDSS scores of ≥6 (0.87-4.11 year). Hazard of change in EDSS was greatest at EDSS scores <6 (HR for increasing EDSS: 1.02-1.33; decreasing EDSS: 0.34-1.27) compared with EDSS scores ≥6 (HR for increasing EDSS: 0.08-0.61; decreasing EDSS: 0.18-0.54). CONCLUSIONS: These data provide a detailed contemporary model of disability outcomes in a representative population-based MS cohort. They support a trend of increasing time to disability milestones compared with historical reference populations, and document disability variation with the use of transitional matrices. In addition, they provide essential information for patient counselling, clinical trial design, service planning and offer a comparative baseline for assessment of therapeutic interventions.
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Personas con Discapacidad , Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente , Esclerosis Múltiple , Humanos , Femenino , Masculino , Esclerosis Múltiple/epidemiología , Gales/epidemiología , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Evaluación de la Discapacidad , Esclerosis Múltiple Recurrente-Remitente/tratamiento farmacológicoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: The prevalence and definition of benign multiple sclerosis (BMS) remain controversial. Most definitions are based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), not encompassing the wider impact of disease. The explanation for favourable outcomes remains unclear. We aim to provide a detailed characterisation of patients with low EDSS scores at long disease durations. METHODS: We screened a population-based registry containing 3062 people with MS to identify individuals with unlimited walking ability at disease durations >15 years. A representative cohort underwent detailed clinical assessment and classified as having BMS according to EDSS score <3, no significant fatigue, mood disturbance, cognitive impairment or disrupted employment, and had not received a disease-modifying therapy. We determined patient-reported perceptions of MS status and made comparisons with EDSS-based definitions. RESULTS: Of 1049 patients with disease duration of >15 years, 200 (19.1%) had most recent EDSS score <4.0. Detailed contemporary clinical assessment of a representative sample of 60 of these patients revealed 48 (80%) had an EDSS score of <4.0, 35 (58%) <3.0 and 16 (27%) <2.0. Only nine (15%) fulfilled our criteria for BMS; impaired cognition (57%) and effects on employment (52%) the most common causes for exclusion. Meanwhile, 33/60 (69%) patients considered their disease benign. Population frequency for BMS was estimated at 2.9% (95% CI 2.0 to 4.1). CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive assessment reveals a small minority of people with MS who appear genuinely benign after 15 years. Study of such individuals may uncover insights about disease pathogenesis. However, discrepancy between patient perception and clinician perception of BMS undermines use of the term 'benign' in clinical settings.