Development of a framework to forecast the urban residential building CO2 emission trend and reduction potential to 2060: A case study of Jiangxi province, China.

Investigating the CO2 abatement potential of urban residential building from systematic perspective is essential to reach the urban carbon neutrality target. However, previous studies on building CO2 emission trend forecasting were mainly focused on the building operational phase. In this study, a new framework that includes four building stages under a system dynamic model is developed to simulate urban residential building carbon emission changes and the related reduction potentials under three scenarios in Jiangxi Province up to 2060. Results showed that the overall process carbon emission dynamic had already peaked in 2014 under the three scenarios, with a peak value of 38.52 Mt. It then fell to 9.56 Mt in 2060 under the baseline (BAU) scenario. More importantly, seven carbon abatement measures were adopted during four building activities in this study, and the total carbon reduction was not the sum of the carbon reduction potential of the individual measures. Some carbon abatement strategies displayed synergistic effects such as low-carbon electrification where the combination of electrification and clean energy power generation was the largest contributor to reduced carbon emissions during building operation as a comprehensive carbon reduction measure. By contrast, extending a building's lifetime restrained the carbon abatement potential during the demolition stage, and it inhibited the carbon emission reduction by 24.84 Mt. These results highlight the significant need for effective policy interventions for clean production and the need to improve prefabricated building proportions, promote electrification, improve energy efficiency, strengthen recycling practices, and extend building lifetimes to promote decarbonization of urban residential building system development.

How seasonality affects the environmental performance of fresh appetite: Insights from cherry consumption in China.

Urbanization and globalization are changing the conventional constraints of seasonality and geography on food consumption, such as that of fresh cherries. The rising demand for year-round cherry consumption in China is currently satisfied by open-field, greenhouse-produced, and imported products. This study conducted a spatial-temporal life cycle evaluation of the environmental performance of cherry consumption behaviors during different seasons of the year. Moreover, based on the definitions of global and local seasonality, the additional environmental costs of out-of-season cherry consumption were estimated. Results show that seasonality was an important factor affecting the environmental burdens of cherry consumption. Eating cherries imported from Chile by air in October resulted in the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 6.38 kg CO2-eq/kg, while eating domestic open-field cherries during May to July (the natural harvest season) was a relatively environmentally beneficial option. The total cherry consumption in China in 2019 generated GHG emissions of 126.99 × 104 t CO2-eq. Under the definitions of global and local seasonality, the out-of-season consumption led to additional environmental costs of 57.59 × 104 and 85.67 × 104 t CO2-eq, accounting for 45.35% and 67.46% of total emissions, respectively. Furthermore, the time-environment trade-off effect of cherry consumption illustrates the higher environmental costs are exchanged for satisfying the appetite for out-of-season fresh foods. Our findings emphasize the meaningful implications for developing a sustainable consumption pattern for all stakeholders involved in the entire food chain.