Creating a Modified Version of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score to Predict Mortality in People Older Than 16 Years: Model Development and Validation.

BACKGROUND: No single multimorbidity measure is validated for use in NHS (National Health Service) England's General Practice Extraction Service Data for Pandemic Planning and Research (GDPPR), the nationwide primary care data set created for COVID-19 pandemic research. The Cambridge Multimorbidity Score (CMMS) is a validated tool for predicting mortality risk, with 37 conditions defined by Read Codes. The GDPPR uses the more internationally used Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine clinical terms (SNOMED CT). We previously developed a modified version of the CMMS using SNOMED CT, but the number of terms for the GDPPR data set is limited making it impossible to use this version. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop and validate a modified version of CMMS using the clinical terms available for the GDPPR. METHODS: We used pseudonymized data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), which has an extensive SNOMED CT list. From the 37 conditions in the original CMMS model, we selected conditions either with (1) high prevalence ratio (≥85%), calculated as the prevalence in the RSC data set but using the GDPPR set of SNOMED CT codes, divided by the prevalence included in the RSC SNOMED CT codes or (2) conditions with lower prevalence ratios but with high predictive value. The resulting set of conditions was included in Cox proportional hazard models to determine the 1-year mortality risk in a development data set (n=500,000) and construct a new CMMS model, following the methods for the original CMMS study, with variable reduction and parsimony, achieved by backward elimination and the Akaike information stopping criterion. Model validation involved obtaining 1-year mortality estimates for a synchronous data set (n=250,000) and 1-year and 5-year mortality estimates for an asynchronous data set (n=250,000). We compared the performance with that of the original CMMS and the modified CMMS that we previously developed using RSC data. RESULTS: The initial model contained 22 conditions and our final model included 17 conditions. The conditions overlapped with those of the modified CMMS using the more extensive SNOMED CT list. For 1-year mortality, discrimination was high in both the derivation and validation data sets (Harrell C=0.92) and 5-year mortality was slightly lower (Harrell C=0.90). Calibration was reasonable following an adjustment for overfitting. The performance was similar to that of both the original and previous modified CMMS models. CONCLUSIONS: The new modified version of the CMMS can be used on the GDPPR, a nationwide primary care data set of 54 million people, to enable adjustment for multimorbidity in predicting mortality in people in real-world vaccine effectiveness, pandemic planning, and other research studies. It requires 17 variables to produce a comparable performance with our previous modification of CMMS to enable it to be used in routine data using SNOMED CT.

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine Effectiveness and Potential Herd Immunity for Reducing Oncogenic Oropharyngeal HPV-16 Prevalence in the United Kingdom: A Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Oropharyngeal cancer incidence is rapidly rising due to human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 infection. The dearth of data on effectiveness of national female-only vaccination programs in preventing oral HPV infection and potential herd immunity in unvaccinated males has resulted in considerable controversy regarding the need to vaccinate males, especially in countries with high female vaccination coverage. METHODS: Subjects aged 0-65 years undergoing tonsillectomy for nonmalignant indications were recruited in 6 hospitals in the United Kingdom. Oral samples were collected as follows: oral rinse, tongue base, and pharyngeal wall brushes, then tonsil tissue (tonsillectomy). Vaccination data were obtained from regional health authorities. All samples were centrally tested for HPV DNA by polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Of 940 subjects, 243 females and 69 males were aged 12-24 years (median age, 18.6 years), with 189 (78%) females and no males vaccinated against HPV. Overall, oropharyngeal HPV-16 prevalence was significantly lower in vaccinated versus unvaccinated females (0.5% vs 5.6%, P = .04). In contrast, prevalence of any oropharyngeal HPV type was similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated females (19% vs 20%, P = .76). Oropharyngeal HPV-16 prevalence in unvaccinated males was similar to vaccinated females (0% vs 0.5%, P > .99), and lower than unvaccinated females (0% vs 5.6%, P = .08). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that the UK female-only vaccination program is associated with significant reductions in oropharyngeal HPV-16 infections. These are also the first data to suggest potential herd immunity from female-only vaccination against oropharyngeal HPV infection in contemporaneously aged males.

The incidence, clearance and persistence of non-cervical human papillomavirus infections: a systematic review of the literature.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines were designed to prevent cervical cancer in women and their provision remains a major public health need. However, HPV is also a major cause of non-cervical anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers and the potential benefit of vaccination likely extends beyond cervical cancer. METHODS: A systematic literature search of PubMed (1995-2014) identified publications assessing the incidence, persistence, and clearance of non-cervical anogenital/oral HPV infections. Comparability with cervical HPV was assessed by identifying articles assessing the same or similar populations. RESULTS: Available data suggest high incidence rates of non-cervical HPV infection in men and women, with HPV-16 predominating in all sites. The incidence of high risk HPV per 100 person-years ranged from 11.4 to 72.9 for penile infections, 6.7-47.9 at other male genital sites, and 4.4-36.7 and 5.3-23.4 for anal infections in men and women, respectively. The incidence per 100 person-years of oral infection with any HPV type ranged from 5.7 to 6.7 in men and 6.8-39.6 in women. Within the limitations of the data, there was a general pattern of higher incidence and clearance of non-cervical genital HPV infections, compared to cervical infections. HIV status, circumcision, number of sex partners and partner HPV status significantly influenced high-risk HPV incidence/clearance at male anogenital sites. Few studies assessed risk factors for oral HPV. CONCLUSIONS: Parallels appear to exist between the epidemiology of cervical and non-cervical HPV infections in terms of incidence, HPV-type distribution, and risk factors for infection. Available data suggest that non-cervical genital HPV infections may occur more frequently, with higher clearance rates, than cervical infections. More extensive studies could provide useful information for estimating vaccine impact, the wider cost-benefit of HPV vaccination, and guiding vaccination policy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable, as systematic review of the literature.

Prevalence and Incidence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Other Respiratory Viral Infections in Children Aged 6 Months to 10 Years With Influenza-like Illness Enrolled in a Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: The high burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated morbidity and mortality makes vaccine development a priority. METHODS: As part of an efficacy trial of pandemic influenza vaccines (NCT01051661), RSV epidemiology in healthy children aged 6 months to <10 years at first vaccination with influenza-like illness (ILI) was evaluated in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand between February 2010 and August 2011. Active surveillance for ILI was conducted for approximately 1 year, with nasal and throat swabs analyzed by polymerase chain reaction. The prevalence and incidence of RSV among ILI episodes were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 6266 children were included, of whom 2421 experienced 3717 ILI episodes with a respiratory sample available. RSV was detected for 359 ILI episodes, a prevalence of 9.7% (95% confidence interval: 8.7-10.7). The highest prevalence was in children aged 12-23 or 24-35 months in all countries except the Philippines, where it was in children aged 6-11 months. The incidence of RSV-associated ILI was 7.0 (6.3-7.7) per 100 person-years (PY). Eighty-eight ILI episodes resulted in hospitalization, of which 8 were associated with RSV (prevalence 9.1% [4.0-17.1]; incidence 0.2 [0.1-0.3] per 100 PY). The incidence of RSV-associated ILI resulting in medical attendance was 6.0 (5.4-6.7) per 100 PY. RSV B subtypes were observed more frequently than A subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: Active surveillance demonstrated the considerable burden of RSV-associated illness that would not be identified through hospital-based surveillance, with a substantial part of the burden occurring in older infants and children.

Modelling estimates of the burden of Respiratory Syncytial virus infection in adults and the elderly in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Growing evidence suggests respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of respiratory disease in adults. However, the adult burden remains largely uncharacterized as most RSV studies focus on children, and population-based studies with laboratory-confirmation of infection are difficult to implement. Indirect modelling methods, long used for influenza, can further our understanding of RSV burden by circumventing some limitations of traditional surveillance studies that rely on direct linkage of individual-level exposure and outcome data. METHODS: Multiple linear time-series regression was used to estimate RSV burden in the United Kingdom (UK) between 1995 and 2009 among the total population and adults in terms of general practice (GP) episodes (counted as first consultation ≥28 days following any previous consultation for same diagnosis/diagnostic group), hospitalisations, and deaths for respiratory disease, using data from Public Health England weekly influenza/RSV surveillance, Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics, and Office of National Statistics. The main outcome considered all ICD-listed respiratory diseases and, for GP episodes, related symptoms. Estimates were adjusted for non-specific seasonal drivers of disease using secular cyclical terms and stratified by age and risk group (according to chronic conditions indicating severe influenza risk as per UK recommendations for influenza vaccination). Trial registration NCT01706302 . Registered 11 October 2012. RESULTS: Among adults aged 18+ years an estimated 487,247 GP episodes, 17,799 hospitalisations, and 8,482 deaths were attributable to RSV per average season. Of these, 175,070 GP episodes (36 %), 14,039 hospitalisations (79 %) and 7,915 deaths (93 %) were in persons aged 65+ years. High- versus low-risk elderly were two-fold more likely to have a RSV-related GP episode or death and four-fold more likely be hospitalised for RSV. In most seasons since 2001, more GP episodes, hospitalisations and deaths were attributable to RSV in adults than to influenza. CONCLUSION: RSV is associated with a substantial disease burden in adults comparable to influenza, with most of the hospitalisation and mortality burden in the elderly. Treatment options and measures to prevent RSV could have a major impact on the burden of RSV respiratory disease in adults, especially the elderly.

Respiratory syncytial virus and other respiratory viral infections in older adults with moderate to severe influenza-like illness.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have prospectively assessed viral etiologies of acute respiratory infections in community-based elderly individuals. We assessed viral respiratory pathogens in individuals ≥65 years with influenza-like illness (ILI). METHODS: Multiplex reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction identified viral pathogens in nasal/throat swabs from 556 episodes of moderate-to-severe ILI, defined as ILI with pneumonia, hospitalization, or maximum daily influenza symptom severity score (ISS) >2. Cases were selected from a randomized trial of an adjuvanted vs nonadjuvanted influenza vaccine conducted in elderly adults from 15 countries. RESULTS: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was detected in 7.4% (41/556) moderate-to-severe ILI episodes in elderly adults. Most (39/41) were single infections. There was a significant association between country and RSV detection (P = .004). RSV prevalence was 7.1% (2/28) in ILI with pneumonia, 12.5% (8/64) in ILI with hospitalization, and 6.7% (32/480) in ILI with maximum ISS > 2. Any virus was detected in 320/556 (57.6%) ILI episodes: influenza A (104/556, 18.7%), rhinovirus/enterovirus (82/556, 14.7%), coronavirus and human metapneumovirus (each 32/556, 5.6%). CONCLUSIONS: This first global study providing data on RSV disease in ≥65 year-olds confirms that RSV is an important respiratory pathogen in the elderly. Preventative measures such as vaccination could decrease severe respiratory illnesses and complications in the elderly.

Natural killer cell degranulation capacity predicts early onset of the immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) in HIV-infected patients with tuberculosis.

Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) is a common and potentially serious complication occurring in HIV-infected patients being treated for tuberculosis (TB) using combined antiretroviral treatment. A role of adaptive immunity has been suggested in the onset of IRIS, whereas the role of natural killer (NK) cells has not yet been explored. The present study sought to examine the involvement of NK cells in the onset of IRIS in HIV-infected patients with TB and to identify predictive markers of IRIS. A total of 128 HIV-infected patients with TB from the Cambodian Early versus Late Introduction of Antiretroviral Drugs (CAMELIA) trial were enrolled in Cambodia. Thirty-seven of the 128 patients developed IRIS. At inclusion, patients had low CD4 cell counts (27 cells/mm(3)) and high plasma viral load (5.76 and 5.50 log/mL in IRIS and non-IRIS patients, respectively). At baseline, NK-cell degranulation capacity was significantly higher in IRIS patients than in non-IRIS patients (9.6% vs 6.38%, P < .005). At IRIS onset, degranulation capacity did not differ between patients, whereas activating receptor expression was lower in IRIS patients. Patients with degranulation levels > 10.84% had a higher risk of IRIS (P = .002 by log-rank test). Degranulation level at baseline was the most important IRIS predictor (hazard ratio = 4.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-12.16). We conclude that NK-degranulation levels identify higher IRIS risk in HIV-infected patients with TB.

The incidence of human papillomavirus infection following treatment for cervical neoplasia: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the published literature in order to estimate the incidence and describe the variability of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in women following treatment for cervical neoplasia. METHODS: Several scientific literature databases (e.g. PubMed, ISI Web of Science) were searched through January 31, 2012. Eligible articles provided data on (i) baseline HPV infection status within 6 months prior to or at time of treatment (pre-treatment); and (ii) HPV test results for women's first visit after treatment occurring within 36 months (post-treatment). We abstracted and summarized the post-treatment incidence of newly detected HPV genotypes that were not present at pre-treatment, overall and stratified by study and other population characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 25 studies were included, reporting post-treatment HPV incidence in nearly 2000 women. Mean patient age ranged from 31 to 43 years (median 36). Most studies used cervical exfoliated cell specimens to test for HPV DNA (n=20; 80%), using polymerase chain reaction (n=21; 84%). Cervical neoplasia treatment included loop electrical excision procedure (n=11; 44%); laser conization (n=2; 8%); laser ablation, surgical conization, cryotherapy, alpha-interferon (n=1; 4% each); or multiple treatment regimens (n=8; 32%). Follow-up times post-treatment ranged from 1.5 to 36 months (median 6). More than half of studies (n=17; 68%) estimated the incidence of any HPV type following treatment, while 7 (28%) focused specifically on high-risk (HR) HPV. HPV incidence after treatment varied widely, ranging from 0 to 47% (interquartile range: 0%-15%) in up to 3 years of follow-up after treatment. Lower HPV incidence was observed among studies that included relatively younger women, used laser conization, focused on HR-HPV rather than overall HPV infection, and had a lower proportion of recurrent cervical disease. CONCLUSIONS: These modest summary incidence estimates from the published literature can guide clinicians, epidemiologists and health economists in developing best practices for post-treatment cervical cancer prevention.

Corrigendum to 'Impact of COVID-19 on immunocompromised populations during the Omicron era: insights from the observational population-based INFORM study' [The Lancet Regional Health - Europe 35 (2023) 100747].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100747.].

Implementation of AZD7442 (Tixagevimab/Cilgavimab) COVID-19 Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) in the Largest Health Maintenance Organization in Israel: Real-world Uptake and Sociodemographic and Clinical Characteristics Across Immunocompromised Patient Groups.

INTRODUCTION: AZD7442 is a combination of two neutralizing antibodies (tixagevimab/cilgavimab) with demonstrated efficacy in reducing the risk of symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 ≤ 6 months after administration. On February 15, 2022, the Israeli Ministry of Health (IMoH) authorized the administration of 300 mg AZD7442 as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection among immunocompromised individuals aged ≥ 12 years. This study describes the real-world uptake of AZD7442 in Israel. METHODS: This descriptive, observational study analyzed data from Israel's largest health maintenance organization, Clalit Health Services (CHS). Individuals were assessed for AZD7442 eligibility between February 13 and December 11, 2022, and were included if they were aged ≥ 12 years, had ≥ 1 year of continuous CHS membership, had ≥ 1 moderate or severe immunocompromising condition, and were eligible for AZD7442 per IMoH recommendations during this time frame. RESULTS: Overall, 19,161 AZD7442-eligible individuals with immunocompromising conditions were identified during the study period; 2829 (14.8%) received AZD7442. A higher proportion of individuals receiving AZD7442 were older (aged ≥ 65 years), male, not current smokers and residents in large cities; required more physician visits (> 50 visits); and had ≥ 1 COVID-19 hospitalization over 12 months, while uptake was lowest among ultra-orthodox Jewish individuals. AZD7442 uptake was also higher among individuals with multiple comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 5), including hypertension, diabetes and chronic kidney disease. In specific immunocompromised types, AZD7442 uptake was highest among individuals with lung transplantation (41%), primary immunodeficiency (32%), bone marrow transplantation (29%) and multiple myeloma (25%) or those receiving anti-CD20 therapy (26%) and was lowest in individuals with lymphoma (8%). CONCLUSION: These results show AZD7442 uptake among the eligible population of Israel in 2022 was relatively low, at 14.8%. Uptake was generally higher among immunocompromised individuals who may be perceived to be frail or at highest risk of COVID-19 infection and complications, although at 25-41%, further improvements in uptake would be more impactful. These results also indicate there is opportunity to expand AZD7442 uptake across immunocompromised groups and ensure more equitable uptake among some other sociodemographic groups. Overall, this study will help inform and reassess future implementation strategies for vulnerable populations.

The Association Between Physical Distancing Behaviors to Avoid COVID-19 and Health-Related Quality of Life in Immunocompromised and Nonimmunocompromised Individuals: Patient-Informed Protocol for the Observational, Cross-Sectional EAGLE Study.

BACKGROUND: Immunocompromised individuals are known to respond inadequately to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, placing them at high risk of severe or fatal COVID-19. Thus, immunocompromised individuals and their caregivers may still practice varying degrees of social or physical distancing to avoid COVID-19. However, the association between physical distancing to avoid COVID-19 and quality of life has not been comprehensively evaluated in any study. OBJECTIVE: We aim to measure physical distancing behaviors among immunocompromised individuals and the association between those behaviors and person-centric outcomes, including health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures, health state utilities, anxiety and depression, and work and school productivity impairment. METHODS: A patient-informed protocol was developed to conduct the EAGLE Study, a large cross-sectional, observational study, and this paper describes that protocol. EAGLE is designed to measure distancing behaviors and outcomes in immunocompromised individuals, including children (aged ≥6 mo) and their caregivers, and nonimmunocompromised adults in the United States and United Kingdom who report no receipt of passive immunization against COVID-19. We previously developed a novel self- and observer-reported instrument, the Physical Distancing Scale for COVID-19 Avoidance (PDS-C19), to measure physical distancing behavior levels cross-sectionally and retrospectively. Using an interim or a randomly selected subset of the study population, the PDS-C19 psychometric properties will be assessed, including structural validity, internal consistency, known-group validity, and convergent validity. Associations (correlations) will be assessed between the PDS-C19 and validated HRQoL-related measures and utilities. Structural equation modeling and regression will be used to assess these associations, adjusting for potential confounders. Participant recruitment and data collection took place from December 2022 to June 2023 using direct-to-patient channels, including panels, clinician referral, patient advocacy groups, and social media, with immunocompromising diagnosis confirmation collected and assessed for a randomly selected 25% of immunocompromised participants. The planned total sample size is 3718 participants and participant-caregiver pairs. Results will be reported by immunocompromised status, immunocompromising condition category, country, age group, and other subgroups. RESULTS: All data analyses and reporting were planned to be completed by December 2023. Results are planned to be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals in 2024-2025. CONCLUSIONS: This study will quantify immunocompromised individuals' physical distancing behaviors to avoid COVID-19 and their association with HRQoL as well as health state utilities. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/52643.

Safety of AZD1222 COVID-19 vaccine and low Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Botswana following ChAdOx1(AZD1222) vaccination: A single-arm open-label interventional study - final study results.

Objectives: We report the final analysis of the single-arm open-label study evaluating the safety and COVID-19 incidence after AZD1222 vaccination in Botswana conducted between September 2021 and August 2022. Methods: The study included three groups of adults (>18 years), homologous AZD1222 primary series and booster (AZ2), heterologous primary series with one dose AZD1222, and AZD1222 booster (HPS), and primary series other than AZD1222 and AZD1222 booster (OPS). We compared the incidence of AEs in participants with and without prior COVID-19 infection using an exact test for rate ratios. Results: Among 10,894 participants, 9192 (84.4%) were enrolled at first vaccine dose, 521 (4.8%) at second vaccine, and 1181 (10.8%) at the booster vaccine. Of 10,855 included in the full analysis set, 1700 received one dose of AZD1222; 5377 received two doses; 98 received a heterologous series including one AZD1222 and a booster; 30 in the HPS group; 1058 in the OPS group; and 2592 in the AZ2 group. No laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations or deaths were reported. The incidence of laboratory-confirmed symptomatic COVID infection for the AZ2 group was 6.22 (95% confidence interval: 2.51-12.78) per 1000 participant-years (1000-PY) and 3.5 (95% confidence interval: 0.42-12.57) per 1000-PY for AZ2+booster group. Most adverse events were mild, with higher incidence in participants with prior COVID-19 infection. Individuals with prior COVID-19 exposure exhibited higher binding antibody responses. No differences in outcomes were observed by HIV status. Conclusion: AZD1222 is safe, effective, and immunogenic for people living with and without HIV.

AZD1222 effectiveness against severe COVID-19 in individuals with comorbidity or frailty: The RAVEN cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Despite being prioritized during initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout, vulnerable individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or death) remain underrepresented in vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies. The RAVEN cohort study (NCT05047822) assessed AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCov-19) two-dose primary series VE in vulnerable populations. METHODS: Using the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub, linked to secondary care, death registration, and COVID-19 datasets in England, COVID-19 outcomes in 2021 were compared in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals matched on age, sex, region, and multimorbidity. RESULTS: Over 4.5 million AZD1222 recipients were matched (mean follow-up ∼5 months); 68% were ≥50 years, 57% had high multimorbidity. Overall, high VE against severe COVID-19 was demonstrated, with lower VE observed in vulnerable populations. VE against hospitalization was higher in the lowest multimorbidity quartile (91.1%; 95% CI: 90.1, 92.0) than the highest quartile (80.4%; 79.7, 81.1), and among individuals ≥65 years, higher in the 'fit' (86.2%; 84.5, 87.6) than the frailest (71.8%; 69.3, 74.2). VE against hospitalization was lowest in immunosuppressed individuals (64.6%; 60.7, 68.1). CONCLUSIONS: Based on integrated and comprehensive UK health data, overall population-level VE with AZD1222 was high. VEs were notably lower in vulnerable groups, particularly the immunosuppressed.

Estimate of the global burden of cervical adenocarcinoma and potential impact of prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Data on the current burden of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and histology-specific human papillomavirus (HPV) type distribution are relevant to predict the future impact of prophylactic HPV vaccines. METHODS: We estimate the proportion of ADC in invasive cervical cancer, the global number of cases of cervical ADC in 2015, the effect of cervical screening on ADC, the number of ADC cases attributable to high-risk HPV types -16, -18, -45, -31 and -33, and the potential impact of HPV vaccination using a variety of data sources including: GLOBOCAN 2008, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) Volume IX, cervical screening data from the World Health Organization/Institut Català d'Oncologia Information Centre on HPV and cervical cancer, and published literature. RESULTS: ADC represents 9.4% of all ICC although its contribution varies greatly by country and region. The global crude incidence rate of cervical ADC in 2015 is estimated at 1.6 cases per 100,000 women, and the projected worldwide incidence of ADC in 2015 is 56,805 new cases. Current detection rates for HPV DNA in cervical ADC tend to range around 80-85%; the lower HPV detection rates in cervical ADC versus squamous cell carcinoma may be due to technical artefacts or to misdiagnosis of endometrial carcinoma as cervical ADC. Published data indicate that the five most common HPV types found in cervical ADC are HPV-16 (41.6%), -18 (38.7%), -45 (7.0%), -31 (2.2%) and -33 (2.1%), together comprising 92% of all HPV positive cases. Future projections using 2015 data, assuming 100% vaccine coverage and a true HPV causal relation of 100%, suggest that vaccines providing protection against HPV-16/18 may theoretically prevent 79% of new HPV-related ADC cases (44,702 cases annually) and vaccines additionally providing cross-protection against HPV-31/33/45 may prevent 89% of new HPV-related ADC cases (50,769 cases annually). CONCLUSIONS: It is predicted that the currently available HPV vaccines will be highly effective in preventing HPV-related cervical ADC.

COVID-19 vaccine booster doses provide increased protection against COVID-19 hospitalization compared with previously vaccinated individuals: Interim findings from the REFORCO-Brazil real-world effectiveness study during Delta and Omicron.

BACKGROUND: Although COVID-19 booster vaccination is widely recommended, there is limited long-term, population-level, real-world evidence on the magnitude of improved protection against severe COVID-19 conferred by boosting with monovalent COVID-19 vaccines developed against ancestral SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- or middle-income countries. We present interim results from the first large-scale assessment of the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of first and second booster doses against severe COVID-19 in a low-/middle-income country. METHODS: REFORCO-Brazil is an ongoing, test-negative case-control study (NCT05697705) utilizing Brazil national severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) surveillance and vaccination data. In SARS hospitalizations from August 1, 2021 to July 31, 2022, we matched test-positive (via SARS-CoV-2 antigen/reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction [RT-PCR]) cases and test-negative case-controls (via RT-PCR) based on admission date, preceding vaccinations, and age. We evaluated the rVEs of four monovalent COVID-19 vaccines (AZD1222, Ad26.COV2.S, CoronaVac, and BNT162b2) as second boosters compared with any first boosters received ≥4 months previously, and as first boosters compared with primary-series vaccinations completed ≥4 months previously. RESULTS: The overall rVE of second boosters, from 5668 (2238 test-positive) evaluated hospitalizations, was 24.7 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 12.6-35.1); the overall rVE of first boosters, from 30,272 (12,063 test-positive) hospitalizations, was 46.8 % (95 % CI: 43.3-50.0). The rVEs of AZD1222 and BNT162b2 were similar: 29.4 % (95 % CI: 8.6-45.5) and 25.5 % (95 % CI: 4.2-42.2), respectively, for second boosters; and 42.5 % (95 % CI: 28.0-54.0) and 50.8 % (95 % CI: 47.5-54.0), respectively, for first boosters. In general, rVEs were higher in elderly (≥80 years) and immunocompromised/high-risk individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the use of AZD1222 and other adenoviral/mRNA vaccine boosters to maintain protection against COVID-19 hospitalization from Omicron subvariants, including in elderly and immunocompromised individuals at increased risk of accelerated waning or severe outcomes.

Protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation conferred by primary-series vaccination with AZD1222 in non-boosted individuals: first vaccine effectiveness results of the European COVIDRIVE study and meta-regression analysis.

Background: Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies with long-term follow-up are needed to understand durability of protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes conferred by primary-series vaccination in individuals not receiving boosters. COVIDRIVE is a European public-private partnership evaluating brand-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE). We report a prespecified interim analysis of primary-series AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) VE. Methods: Seven Study Contributors in Europe collected data on individuals aged ≥18 years who were hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection (June 1st, 2021-September 5th, 2022) and eligible for COVID-19 vaccination prior to hospitalisation. In this test-negative case-control study, individuals were defined as test-positive cases or test-negative controls (SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR) and were either fully vaccinated (two AZD1222 doses, 4-12 weeks apart, completed ≥14 days prior to symptom onset; no booster doses) or unvaccinated (no COVID-19 vaccine prior to hospitalisation). The primary objective was to estimate AZD1222 VE against COVID-19 hospitalisation. A literature review and meta-regression were conducted to contextualise findings on durability of protection. Findings: 761 individuals were included during the 15-month analysis period. Overall AZD1222 VE estimate was 72.8% (95% CI, 53.4-84.1). VE was 93.8% (48.6-99.3) in participants who received second AZD1222 doses ≤8 weeks prior to hospitalisation, with spline-based VE estimates demonstrating protection (VE ≥ 50%) 30 weeks post-second dose. Meta-regression analysis (data from seven publications) showed consistent results, with ≥80% protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation through ∼43 weeks post-second dose, with some degree of waning. Interpretation: Primary-series AZD1222 vaccination confers protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation with enduring levels of VE through ≥6 months. Funding: AstraZeneca.

Impact of COVID-19 on immunocompromised populations during the Omicron era: insights from the observational population-based INFORM study.

Background: Immunocompromised individuals are not optimally protected by COVID-19 vaccines and potentially require additional preventive interventions to mitigate the risk of severe COVID-19. We aimed to characterise and describe the risk of severe COVID-19 across immunocompromised groups as the pandemic began to transition to an endemic phase. Methods: COVID-19-related hospitalisations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and deaths (01/01/2022-31/12/2022) were compared among different groups of immunocompromised individuals vs the general population, using a retrospective cohort design and electronic health data from a random 25% sample of the English population aged ≥12 years (Registration number: ISRCTN53375662). Findings: Overall, immunocompromised individuals accounted for 3.9% of the study population, but 22% (4585/20,910) of COVID-19 hospitalisations, 28% (125/440) of COVID-19 ICU admissions, and 24% (1145/4810) of COVID-19 deaths in 2022. Restricting to those vaccinated with ≥3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine (∼84% of immunocompromised and 51% of the general population), all immunocompromised groups remained at increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, with adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) for hospitalisation ranging from 1.3 to 13.1. At highest risk for COVID-19 hospitalisation were individuals with: solid organ transplant (aIRR 13.1, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 11.2-15.3), moderate to severe primary immunodeficiency (aIRR 9.7, 95% CI 6.3-14.9), stem cell transplant (aIRR 11.0, 95% CI 6.8-17.6), and recent treatment for haematological malignancy (aIRR 10.6, 95% CI 9.5-11.9). Results were similar for COVID-19 ICU admissions and deaths. Interpretation: Immunocompromised individuals continue to be impacted disproportionately by COVID-19 and have an urgent need for additional preventive measures beyond current vaccination programmes. These data can help determine the immunocompromised groups for which targeted prevention strategies may have the highest impact. Funding: This study was funded by AstraZeneca UK.

Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on otitis media: a systematic review.

Acute otitis media (AOM) is a leading cause of visits to physicians and of antibiotic prescriptions for young children. We systematically reviewed studies on all-cause AOM episodes and physician visits in which impact was attributed to pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, either as efficacy or effectiveness. Of 18 relevant publications found, most used the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (7vCRM). The efficacy of 7vCRM against all-cause AOM episodes or visits was 0%-9% in randomized trials and 17%-23% in nonrandomized trials. In observational database studies, physician visits for AOM were already declining in the 3-5 years before 7vCRM introduction (mean change, -15%; range, +14% to -24%) and continued to decline afterward (mean, -19%; range, +7% to -48%). This vaccine provides some protection against OM, but other factors have also contributed to the recent decline in OM incidence. Future effectiveness studies should thus use better-controlled methods to estimate the true impact of vaccination on AOM.

A comparison of human papillomavirus testing of clinician-collected and self-collected samples during follow-up after screen-and-treat.

Screen-and-treat cervical cancer prevention programs based on high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and cryotherapy have been shown to be effective in resource-limited settings. However, because cryotherapy is not 100% effective, follow-up is needed after treatment to detect post-treatment failures. We compared the test performances of high-risk HPV testing (Hybrid Capture 2) using self-collected and clinician-collected samples as well as cervical cytology for identifying cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 or 3 or invasive cervical cancer (CIN2+) among women who did (n=812) and did not (n=1858) undergo cryotherapy in a South African screen-and-treat trial. At 6 months after enrolment (and after cryotherapy, if performed), women were tested using all three screening methods and then underwent colposcopy/biopsy. A predefined subset of women (n=1,455) had extended follow-up with colposcopy/biopsy at 12 months. A total of 33 and 91 cases of CIN2+ were detected among treated and untreated women, respectively. The sensitivity of HPV testing using clinician-collected samples and cervical cytology did not differ by treatment status. HPV testing of clinician-collected samples detected the most cases of CIN2+ among both treated (85%) and untreated (91%) women (p=0.31). Cytology (at a cutoff of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or greater) detected 76% of cases among both treated and untreated women. However, the sensitivity of HPV testing using self-collected samples was significantly lower among treated versus untreated women (55% vs. 78%, p=0.01). HPV testing using self-collected vaginal specimens may be useful in primary screening but performs poorly for detecting post-treatment failures.