Assessment of genetic susceptibility to multiple primary cancers through whole-exome sequencing in two large multi-ancestry studies.

BACKGROUND: Up to one of every six individuals diagnosed with one cancer will be diagnosed with a second primary cancer in their lifetime. Genetic factors contributing to the development of multiple primary cancers, beyond known cancer syndromes, have been underexplored. METHODS: To characterize genetic susceptibility to multiple cancers, we conducted a pan-cancer, whole-exome sequencing study of individuals drawn from two large multi-ancestry populations (6429 cases, 165,853 controls). We created two groupings of individuals diagnosed with multiple primary cancers: (1) an overall combined set with at least two cancers across any of 36 organ sites and (2) cancer-specific sets defined by an index cancer at one of 16 organ sites with at least 50 cases from each study population. We then investigated whether variants identified from exome sequencing were associated with these sets of multiple cancer cases in comparison to individuals with one and, separately, no cancers. RESULTS: We identified 22 variant-phenotype associations, 10 of which have not been previously discovered and were significantly overrepresented among individuals with multiple cancers, compared to those with a single cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we describe variants and genes that may play a fundamental role in the development of multiple primary cancers and improve our understanding of shared mechanisms underlying carcinogenesis.

Investigating rare pathogenic/likely pathogenic exonic variation in bipolar disorder.

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a serious mental illness with substantial common variant heritability. However, the role of rare coding variation in BD is not well established. We examined the protein-coding (exonic) sequences of 3,987 unrelated individuals with BD and 5,322 controls of predominantly European ancestry across four cohorts from the Bipolar Sequencing Consortium (BSC). We assessed the burden of rare, protein-altering, single nucleotide variants classified as pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P-LP) both exome-wide and within several groups of genes with phenotypic or biologic plausibility in BD. While we observed an increased burden of rare coding P-LP variants within 165 genes identified as BD GWAS regions in 3,987 BD cases (meta-analysis OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.3-2.8, one-sided p = 6.0 × 10-4), this enrichment did not replicate in an additional 9,929 BD cases and 14,018 controls (OR = 0.9, one-side p = 0.70). Although BD shares common variant heritability with schizophrenia, in the BSC sample we did not observe a significant enrichment of P-LP variants in SCZ GWAS genes, in two classes of neuronal synaptic genes (RBFOX2 and FMRP) associated with SCZ or in loss-of-function intolerant genes. In this study, the largest analysis of exonic variation in BD, individuals with BD do not carry a replicable enrichment of rare P-LP variants across the exome or in any of several groups of genes with biologic plausibility. Moreover, despite a strong shared susceptibility between BD and SCZ through common genetic variation, we do not observe an association between BD risk and rare P-LP coding variants in genes known to modulate risk for SCZ.

Association between Troponin I Levels during Sepsis and Postsepsis Cardiovascular Complications.

Rationale: Sepsis commonly results in elevated serum troponin levels and increased risk for postsepsis cardiovascular complications; however, the association between troponin levels during sepsis and cardiovascular complications after sepsis is unclear.Objectives: To evaluate the association between serum troponin levels during sepsis and 1 year after sepsis cardiovascular events.Methods: We analyzed adults aged ⩾40 years without preexisting cardiovascular disease within 5 years, admitted with sepsis across 21 hospitals from 2011 to 2017. Peak serum troponin I levels during sepsis were grouped as normal (⩽0.04 ng/ml) or tertiles of abnormal (>0.04 to ⩽0.09 ng/ml, >0.09 to ⩽0.42 ng/ml, or >0.42 ng/ml). Multivariable adjusted cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models with death as a competing risk were used to assess associations between peak troponin I levels and a composite cardiovascular outcome (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure) in the year following sepsis. Models were adjusted for presepsis and intrasepsis factors considered potential confounders.Measurements and Main Results: Among 14,046 eligible adults with troponin I measured, 2,012 (14.3%) experienced the composite cardiovascular outcome, including 832 (10.9%) patients with normal troponin levels, as compared with 370 (17.3%), 376 (17.6%), and 434 (20.3%) patients within each sequential abnormal troponin tertile, respectively (P < 0.001). Patients within the elevated troponin tertiles had increased risks of adverse cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]troponin0.04-0.09 = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-1.55; aHRtroponin0.09-0.42 = 1.44; 95% CI, 1.27-1.63; and aHRtroponin>0.42 = 1.77; 95% CI, 1.56-2.00).Conclusions: Among patients without preexisting cardiovascular disease, troponin elevation during sepsis identified patients at increased risk for postsepsis cardiovascular complications. Strategies to mitigate cardiovascular complications among this high-risk subset of patients are warranted.

Genetic variation in the SIM1 locus is associated with erectile dysfunction.

Erectile dysfunction affects millions of men worldwide. Twin studies support the role of genetic risk factors underlying erectile dysfunction, but no specific genetic variants have been identified. We conducted a large-scale genome-wide association study of erectile dysfunction in 36,649 men in the multiethnic Kaiser Permanente Northern California Genetic Epidemiology Research in Adult Health and Aging cohort. We also undertook replication analyses in 222,358 men from the UK Biobank. In the discovery cohort, we identified a single locus (rs17185536-T) on chromosome 6 near the single-minded family basic helix-loop-helix transcription factor 1 (SIM1) gene that was significantly associated with the risk of erectile dysfunction (odds ratio = 1.26, P = 3.4 × 10-25). The association replicated in the UK Biobank sample (odds ratio = 1.25, P = 6.8 × 10-14), and the effect is independent of known erectile dysfunction risk factors, including body mass index (BMI). The risk locus resides on the same topologically associating domain as SIM1 and interacts with the SIM1 promoter, and the rs17185536-T risk allele showed differential enhancer activity. SIM1 is part of the leptin-melanocortin system, which has an established role in body weight homeostasis and sexual function. Because the variants associated with erectile dysfunction are not associated with differences in BMI, our findings suggest a mechanism that is specific to sexual function.

Predicting rice pesticide fate and transport following foliage application by an updated PCPF-1 model.

The Pesticide Concentration in Paddy Field (PCPF-1) model has been successfully used to predict the fate and transport of granular pesticides applied to the paddy fields. However, it is not applicable for pesticides in foliar formulation while previous studies have reported that foliar application may increase the risks of rice pesticide contamination to the aquatic environment due to pesticide wash-off from rice foliage. In this study, we developed and added a foliar application module into the PCPF-1 model to improve its versatility regarding pesticide application methods. In addition, some processes of the original model such as photodegradation were simplified. The updated model was then validated with data from previous studies. Critical parameters of the model were calibrated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithm. The calibrated model simulated pesticide dissipation trend and concentrations with moderate accuracy in the two paddy compartments including rice foliage and paddy water. The accuracy of the predicted soil concentrations could not be evaluated since no observed data were available. Although the p-factor and r-factor obtained using the SUFI2 algorithm indicated that the uncertainty encompassed in the predicted concentrations was rather high, the daily predicted pesticide concentrations in rice foliage and paddy water were satisfactory based on the NSE values (0.36-0.89). The updated PCPF-1 model is a flexible tool for the environmental risk assessment of pesticide losses and the evaluation of agricultural management practices for mitigating pesticide pollution associated with rice production.

Assessing the clinical impact of CYP2C9 pharmacogenetic variation on phenytoin prescribing practice and patient response in an integrated health system.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of CYP2C9 variation on phenytoin patient response and clinician prescribing practice where genotype was unknown during treatment. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of Resource on Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging cohort participants who filled a phenytoin prescription between 1996 and 2017. We used laboratory test results, medication dispensing records, and medical notes to identify associations of CYP2C9 genotype with phenytoin blood concentration, neurologic side effects, and medication dispensing patterns reflecting clinician prescribing practice and patient response. RESULTS: Among 993 participants, we identified 69% extensive, 20% high-intermediate, 10% low-intermediate, and 2% poor metabolizers based on CYP2C9 genotypes. Compared with extensive metabolizer genotype, low-intermediate/poor metabolizer genotype was associated with increased dose-adjusted phenytoin blood concentration [21.3 pg/mL, 95% confidence interval (CI): 13.6-29.0 pg/mL; P < 0.01] and increased risk of neurologic side effects (hazard ratio: 2.40, 95% CI: 1.24-4.64; P < 0.01). Decreased function CYP2C9 genotypes were associated with medication dispensing patterns indicating dose decrease, use of alternative anticonvulsants, and worse adherence, although these associations varied by treatment indication for phenytoin. CONCLUSION: CYP2C9 variation was associated with clinically meaningful differences in clinician prescribing practice and patient response, with potential implications for healthcare utilization and treatment efficacy.

The simple advantage in perceptual and categorical generalization.

Recent research in relational learning has suggested that simple training instances may lead to better generalization than complex training instances. We examined the perceptual-encoding mechanisms that might undergird this "simple advantage" by testing category and perceptual learning in adults with simplified and traditional (more complex) Chinese scripts. In Experiment 1, participants learned Chinese characters and their English translations, performed a memorization test, and generalized their learning to the corresponding characters written in the other script. In Experiment 2, we removed the training phase and modified the tests to examine transfer based purely on the perceptual similarities between simplified and traditional characters. We found the simple advantage in both experiments. Training with simplified characters produced better generalization than training with traditional characters when generalization relied on either recognition memory or pure perceptual similarities. On the basis of the results of these two experiments, we propose a simple process model to explain the perceptual mechanism that might drive this simple advantage, and in Experiment 3 we tested novel predictions of this model by examining the effect of exposure duration on the simple advantage. We found support for our model that the simple advantage is driven primarily by differences in the perceptual encoding of the information available from simple and complex instances. These findings advance our understanding of how the perceptual features of a learning opportunity interact with domain-general mechanisms to prepare learners for transfer.

ETS1 regulates the expression of ATXN2.

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 (SCA2) is an autosomal dominant disorder caused by the expansion of a CAG tract in the ATXN2 gene. The SCA2 phenotype is characterized by cerebellar ataxia, neuropathy and slow saccades. SCA2 foreshortens life span and is currently without symptomatic or disease-modifying treatments. Identifying function-specific therapeutics for SCA2 is problematic due to the limited knowledge of ATXN2 function. As SCA2 is likely caused by a gain-of-toxic or gain-of-normal function like other polyglutamine disorders, targeting ATXN2 expression may represent a valid therapeutic approach. This study characterized aspects of ATXN2 expression control using an ATXN2 promoter-luciferase (luc) reporter construct. We verified the fidelity of construct expression by generating transgenic mice expressing the reporter construct. High reporter expression was seen in the cerebellum and olfactory bulb in vivo but there was relatively low expression in other tissues, similar to the expression of endogenous ataxin-2. We verified the second of two possible start codons as the functional start codon in ATXN2. By evaluating deletions in the ATXN2 promoter, we identified an E-twenty six (ETS)-binding site required for ATXN2 expression. We verified that endogenous ETS1 interacted with the ATXN2 promoter by an electromobility supershift assay and chromatin immunoprecipitation polymerase chain reaction. ETS1 overexpression increased ATXN2-luc (ATXN2-luciferase) as well as endogenous ATXN2 expression. Deletion of the putative ETS1-binding site abrogated the effects on the expression of ATXN2-luc. A dominant negative ETS1 and an ETS1 short-hairpin RNA both reduced ATXN2-luc expression. Our study broadens the understanding on the transcriptional control of ATXN2 and reveals specific regulatory features of the ATXN2 promoter that can be exploited therapeutically.

Clinical performance of Roche Cobas 4800 HPV Test.

Evaluation of the Cobas 4800 test demonstrated that Cobas had a low rate of cross-reactivity with low-risk human papillomavirus (lrHPV), a 3.74% disconcordance rate between prealiquots and postaliquots, and failure rates of 4.57% and 1.16%, respectively, after vortexing and swirling. This study demonstrated that the Cobas test has good sensitivity, accuracy, and reproducibility for detecting 14 high-risk HPV (hrHPV) genotypes.

Hospital-associated venous thromboembolism prophylaxis use by risk assessment at a large integrated health care network in Northern California.

BACKGROUND: Hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA VTE) is a preventable complication in hospitalized patients. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine the use of pharmacologic prophylaxis (pPPX) and compare two risk assessment methods for HA VTE: a retrospective electronic Padua Score (ePaduaKP) and admitting clinician's choice of risk within the admission orderset (low, moderate, or high). DESIGN, SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: We retrospectively analyzed prophylaxis orders for adult medical admissions (2013-2019) at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, excluding surgical and ICU patients. INTERVENTION: ePaduaKP was calculated for all admissions. For a subset of these admissions, clinician-assigned HA VTE risk was extracted. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: Descriptive pPPX utilization rates between ePaduaKP and clinician-assigned risk as well as concordance between ePaduaKP and clinician-assigned risk. RESULTS: Among 849,059 encounters, 82.2% were classified as low risk by ePaduaKP, with 42.3% receiving pPPX. In the subset with clinician-assigned risk (608,512 encounters), low and high ePaduaKP encounters were classified as moderate risk in 87.5% and 92.0% of encounters, respectively. Overall, 56.7% of encounters with moderate clinician-assigned risk received pPPX, compared to 7.2% of encounters with low clinician-assigned risk. pPPX use occurred in a large portion of low ePaduaKP risk encounters. Clinicians frequently assigned moderate risk to encounters at admission irrespective of their ePaduaKP risk when retrospectively examined. We hypothesize that the current orderset design may have negatively influenced clinician-assigned risk choice as well as pPPX utilization. Future work should explore optimizing pPPX for high-risk patients only.

Predicting stroke risk after sepsis hospitalization with new-onset atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during sepsis is common, but models designed to stratify stroke risk excluded patients with secondary AF. We assessed the predictive validity of CHA2DS2VASc scores among patients with new-onset AF during sepsis and developed a novel stroke prediction model incorporating presepsis and intrasepsis characteristics. METHODS: We included patients ≥40 years old who survived hospitalizations with sepsis and new-onset AF across 21 Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals from January 1, 2011 to September 30, 2017. We calculated the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for CHA2DS2VASc scores to predict stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) within 1 year after a hospitalization with new-onset AF during sepsis using Fine-Gray models with death as competing risk. We similarly derived and validated a novel model using presepsis and intrasepsis characteristics associated with 1-year stroke/TIA risk. RESULTS: Among 82,748 adults hospitalized with sepsis, 3992 with new-onset AF (median age: 80 years, median CHA2DS2VASc of 4) survived to discharge, among whom 70 (2.1%) experienced stroke or TIA outcome and 1393 (41.0%) died within 1 year of sepsis. The CHA2DS2VASc score was not predictive of stroke risk after sepsis (AUC: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48-0.52). A newly derived model among 2555 (64%) patients in the derivation set and 1437 (36%) in the validation set included 13 variables and produced an AUC of 0.61 (0.49-0.73) in derivation and 0.54 (0.43-0.65) in validation. CONCLUSION: Current models do not accurately stratify risk of stroke following new-onset AF secondary to sepsis. New tools are required to guide anticoagulation decisions following new-onset AF in sepsis.

Development and Validation of a Diabetic Retinopathy Risk Stratification Algorithm.

OBJECTIVE: Although diabetic retinopathy is a leading cause of blindness worldwide, diabetes-related blindness can be prevented through effective screening, detection, and treatment of disease. The study goal was to develop risk stratification algorithms for the onset of retinal complications of diabetes, including proliferative diabetic retinopathy, referable retinopathy, and macular edema. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis of patients from the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Diabetes Registry who had no evidence of diabetic retinopathy at a baseline diabetic retinopathy screening during 2008-2020 was performed. Machine learning and logistic regression prediction models for onset of proliferative diabetic retinopathy, diabetic macular edema, and referable retinopathy detected through routine screening were trained and internally validated. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) metrics. RESULTS: The study cohort (N = 276,794) was 51.9% male and 42.1% White. Mean (±SD) age at baseline was 60.0 (±13.1) years. A machine learning XGBoost algorithm was effective in identifying patients who developed proliferative diabetic retinopathy (AUC 0.86; 95% CI, 0.86-0.87), diabetic macular edema (AUC 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.77), and referable retinopathy (AUC 0.78; 95% CI, 0.78-0.79). Similar results were found using a simpler nine-covariate logistic regression model: proliferative diabetic retinopathy (AUC 0.82; 95% CI, 0.80-0.83), diabetic macular edema (AUC 0.73; 95% CI, 0.72-0.74), and referable retinopathy (AUC 0.75; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Relatively simple logistic regression models using nine readily available clinical variables can be used to rank order patients for onset of diabetic eye disease and thereby more efficiently prioritize and target screening for at risk patients.

Practice Patterns and Outcomes Associated With Anticoagulation Use Following Sepsis Hospitalizations With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Practice patterns and outcomes associated with the use of oral anticoagulation for arterial thromboembolism prevention following a hospitalization with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during sepsis are unclear. METHODS: Retrospective, observational cohort study of patients ≥40 years of age discharged alive following hospitalization with new-onset AF during sepsis across 21 hospitals in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California health care delivery system, years 2011 to 2018. Primary outcomes were ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), with a safety outcome of major bleeding events, both within 1 year of discharge alive from sepsis hospitalization. Adjusted risk differences for outcomes between patients who did and did not receive oral anticoagulation within 30 days of discharge were estimated using marginal structural models fitted by inverse probability weighting using Super Learning within a target trial emulation framework. RESULTS: Among 82 748 patients hospitalized with sepsis, 3992 (4.8%) had new-onset AF and survived to hospital discharge; mean age was 78±11 years, 53% were men, and 70% were White. Patients with new-onset AF during sepsis averaged 45±33% of telemetry monitoring entries with AF, and 27% had AF present on the day of hospital discharge. Within 1 year of hospital discharge, 89 (2.2%) patients experienced stroke/TIA, 225 (5.6%) had major bleeding, and 1011 (25%) died. Within 30 days of discharge, 807 (20%) patients filled oral anticoagulation prescriptions, which were associated with higher 1-year adjusted risks of ischemic stroke/TIA (5.69% versus 2.32%; risk difference, 3.37% [95% CI, 0.36-6.38]) and no significant difference in 1-year adjusted risks of major bleeding (6.51% versus 7.10%; risk difference, -0.59% [95% CI, -3.09 to 1.91]). Sensitivity analysis of ischemic stroke-only outcomes showed a risk difference of 0.15% (95% CI, -1.72 to 2.03). CONCLUSIONS: After hospitalization with new-onset AF during sepsis, oral anticoagulation use was uncommon and associated with potentially higher stroke/TIA risk. Further research to inform mechanisms of stroke and TIA and management of new-onset AF after sepsis is needed.

Trends and Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism Among Hospitalized Medical Patients.

Importance: While hospital-associated venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) is a known complication of hospitalization, contemporary incidence and outcomes data are scarce and methodologically contested. Objective: To define and validate an automated electronic health record (EHR)-based algorithm for retrospective detection of HA-VTE and examine contemporary HA-VTE incidence, previously reported risk factors, and outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted using hospital admissions between January 1, 2013, and June 30, 2021, with follow-up until December 31, 2021. All medical (non-intensive care unit) admissions at an integrated health care delivery system with 21 hospitals in Northern California during the study period were included. Data were analyzed from January to June 2022. Exposures: Previously reported risk factors associated with HA-VTE and administration of pharmacological prophylaxis were evaluated as factors associated with HA-VTE. Main Outcomes and Measures: Yearly incidence rates and timing of HA-VTE events overall and by subtype (deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, both, or unknown), as well as readmissions and mortality rates. Results: Among 1 112 014 hospitalizations involving 529 492 patients (268 797 [50.8%] women; 75 238 Asian [14.2%], 52 697 Black [10.0%], 79 398 Hispanic [15.0%], and 307 439 non-Hispanic White [58.1%]; median [IQR] age, 67.0 [54.0-79.0] years), there were 13 843 HA-VTE events (1.2% of admissions) occurring in 10 410 patients (2.0%). HA-VTE events increased from 307 of 29 095 hospitalizations (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2013 to 551 of 33 729 hospitalizations (1.6%) in the first quarter of 2021. Among all HA-VTE events, 10 746 events (77.6%) were first noted after discharge. In multivariable analyses, several factors were associated with increased odds of HA-VTE, including active cancer (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.96; 95% CI, 1.85-2.08), prior VTE (aOR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.63-1.79), and reduced mobility (aOR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.50-1.77). Factors associated with decreased likelihood of HA-VTE included Asian race (vs non-Hispanic White: aOR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.61-0.69), current admission for suspected stroke (aOR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.65-0.81), and Hispanic ethnicity (vs non-Hispanic White: aOR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.77-0.86). HA-VTE events were associated with increased risk of readmission (hazard ratio [HR], 3.33; 95% CI, 3.25-3.41) and mortality (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.57-1.70). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that HA-VTE events occurred in 1.2% of medical admissions, increased over time, and were associated with increased adverse outcomes. These findings suggest that approaches designed to mitigate occurrence and outcomes associated with HA-VTE may remain needed.

Prognostic Accuracy of Presepsis and Intrasepsis Characteristics for Prediction of Cardiovascular Events After a Sepsis Hospitalization.

OBJECTIVES: Sepsis survivors face increased risk for cardiovascular complications; however, the contribution of intrasepsis events to cardiovascular risk profiles is unclear. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) and Intermountain Healthcare (IH) integrated healthcare delivery systems. SUBJECTS: Sepsis survivors (2011-2017 [KPNC] and 2018-2020 [IH]) greater than or equal to 40 years old without prior cardiovascular disease. DESIGN: Data across KPNC and IH were harmonized and grouped into presepsis (demographics, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease scores, comorbidities) or intrasepsis factors (e.g., laboratory values, vital signs, organ support, infection source) with random split for training/internal validation datasets (75%/25%) within KPNC and IH. Models were bidirectionally, externally validated between healthcare systems. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Changes to predictive accuracy (C-statistic) of cause-specific proportional hazards models predicting 1-year cardiovascular outcomes (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation events) were compared between models that did and did not contain intrasepsis factors. Among 39,590 KPNC and 16,388 IH sepsis survivors, 3,503 (8.8%) at Kaiser Permanente (KP) and 600 (3.7%) at IH experienced a cardiovascular event within 1-year after hospital discharge, including 996 (2.5%) at KP and 192 (1.2%) IH with an atherosclerotic event first, 564 (1.4%) at KP and 117 (0.7%) IH with a heart failure event, 2,310 (5.8%) at KP and 371 (2.3%) with an atrial fibrillation event. Death within 1 year after sepsis occurred for 7,948 (20%) KP and 2,085 (12.7%) IH patients. Combined models with presepsis and intrasepsis factors had better discrimination for cardiovascular events (KPNC C-statistic 0.783 [95% CI, 0.766-0.799]; IH 0.763 [0.726-0.801]) as compared with presepsis cardiovascular risk alone (KPNC: 0.666 [0.648-0.683], IH 0.660 [0.619-0.702]) during internal validation. External validation of models across healthcare systems showed similar performance (KPNC model within IH data C-statistic: 0.734 [0.725-0.744]; IH model within KPNC data: 0.787 [0.768-0.805]). CONCLUSIONS: Across two large healthcare systems, intrasepsis factors improved postsepsis cardiovascular risk prediction as compared with presepsis cardiovascular risk profiles. Further exploration of sepsis factors that contribute to postsepsis cardiovascular events is warranted for improved mechanistic and predictive models.

Simulating concentration of bensulphuron-methyl in a drainage canal of a paddy block using a rice pesticide model.

A pesticide fate and transport model (PCPF-B) was developed to predict the runoff of pesticides from paddy plots to a drainage canal in a paddy block based on the plot scale model (PCPF-1). The block-scale model now comprises three modules: (1) a module for pesticide application, (2) a module for pesticide behaviour in paddy fields, and (3) a module for pesticide concentration in the drainage canal. The PCPF-B model was first evaluated using published data in a single plot and then was applied to predict the concentration of bensulphuron-methyl in one paddy block in the Sakura river basin, Ibaraki, Japan, where a detailed field survey was conducted. The PCPF-B model simulated well the concentration of bensulphuron-methyl in individual paddy plots. It also reflected the runoff pattern of bensulphuron-methyl at the block outlet, although overestimation of bensulphuron-methyl concentrations occurred due to uncertainty in water balance estimation. A sensitivity analysis showed that the soil adsorption coefficient of the herbicide had the greatest influence on the concentrations and cumulative loss of bensulphuron-methyl to the drainage canal.

Development of a healthcare system COVID Hotspotting Score in California: an observational study with prospective validation.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the value of health systems data as indicators of emerging COVID-19 activity. DESIGN: Observational study of health system indicators for the COVID Hotspotting Score (CHOTS) with prospective validation. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: An integrated healthcare delivery system in Northern California including 21 hospitals and 4.5 million members. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The CHOTS incorporated 10 variables including four major (cough/cold calls, emails, new positive COVID-19 tests, COVID-19 hospital census) and six minor (COVID-19 calls, respiratory infection and COVID-19 routine and urgent visits, and respiratory viral testing) indicators assessed with change point detection and slope metrics. We quantified cross-correlations lagged by 7-42 days between CHOTS and standardised COVID-19 hospital census using observational data from 1 April to 31 May 2020 and two waves of prospective data through 21 March 2021. RESULTS: Through 30 September 2020, peak cross-correlation between CHOTS and COVID-19 hospital census occurred with a 28-day lag at 0.78; at 42 days, the correlation was 0.69. Lagged correlation between medical centre CHOTS and their COVID-19 census was highest at 42 days for one facility (0.63), at 35 days for nine facilities (0.52-0.73), at 28 days for eight facilities (0.28-0.74) and at 14 days for two facilities (0.73-0.78). The strongest correlation for individual indicators was 0.94 (COVID-19 census) and 0.90 (new positive COVID-19 tests) lagged 1-14 days and 0.83 for COVID-19 calls and urgent clinic visits lagged 14-28 days. Cross-correlation was similar (0.73) with a 35-day lag using prospective validation from 1 October 2020 to 21 March 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Passively collected health system indicators were strongly correlated with forthcoming COVID-19 hospital census up to 6 weeks before three successive COVID-19 waves. These tools could inform communities, health systems and public health officials to identify, prepare for and mitigate emerging COVID-19 activity.

Cross-cancer evaluation of polygenic risk scores for 16 cancer types in two large cohorts.

Even distinct cancer types share biological hallmarks. Here, we investigate polygenic risk score (PRS)-specific pleiotropy across 16 cancers in European ancestry individuals from the Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging cohort (16,012 cases, 50,552 controls) and UK Biobank (48,969 cases, 359,802 controls). Within cohorts, each PRS is evaluated in multivariable logistic regression models against all other cancer types. Results are then meta-analyzed across cohorts. Ten positive and one inverse cross-cancer associations are found after multiple testing correction. Two pairs show bidirectional associations; the melanoma PRS is positively associated with oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer and vice versa, whereas the lung cancer PRS is positively associated with oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer, and the oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer PRS is inversely associated with lung cancer. Overall, we validate known, and uncover previously unreported, patterns of pleiotropy that have the potential to inform investigations of risk prediction, shared etiology, and precision cancer prevention strategies.