The role of free will beliefs in social behavior: Priority areas for future research.

Recent research has examined the consequences that holding views about free will has on social behavior. Specifically, through manipulating people's belief in free will, researchers have tested the psychological and behavioral consequences of free will belief change. However, findings of such manipulations have been shown to be relatively small and inconsistent. The purpose of this paper is to outline four key areas for researchers in this area to consider. We believe considering these areas will give a more nuanced understanding of the role of free will beliefs.

The sampling precision of research in five major areas of psychology.

After obtaining a sample of published, peer-reviewed articles from journals with high and low impact factors in social, cognitive, neuro-, developmental, and clinical psychology, we used a priori equations recently derived by Trafimow (Educational and Psychological Measurement, 77, 831-854, 2017; Trafimow & MacDonald in Educational and Psychological Measurement, 77, 204-219, 2017) to compute the articles' median levels of precision. Our findings indicate that developmental research performs best with respect to precision, whereas cognitive research performs the worst; however, none of the psychology subfields excelled. In addition, we found important differences in precision between journals in the upper versus lower echelons with respect to impact factors in cognitive, neuro-, and clinical psychology, whereas the difference was dramatically attenuated for social and developmental psychology. Implications are discussed.

A close consideration of effect sizes reviewed by Jussim (2012).

This commentary on Jussim (2012) makes two points: (1) Effect sizes often reflect artifacts of experimental design rather than real-world relevance, and (2) any argument dependent on effect sizes must correct for attenuation due to instrument reliabilities. A formula for making this correction is presented, and its ramifications on the debate over accuracy in person perception are discussed.

The probability of simple versus complex causal models in causal analyses.

Complex causal models, accompanied by causal analyses based on large correlation matrices, are more common in the social sciences than are simple causal models accompanied by a single correlation coefficient. The increased complexity of the former, relative to the latter, seems to carry with it an augmented scientific respectability or credibility. In contrast, the axioms of probability suggest an argument in the opposite direction.

THE IMPORTANCE OF NEGATIVE ACCELERATION OF THE LOAD IN FREE-STYLE LIFTING.

Lifters may use negative acceleration in lifting a very light load. Body kinematic data were recorded in 10 participants lifting a 114 g box. Vertical position and acceleration of the center of mass and angle of the thigh to a vertical line were calculated. Acceleration data between the positions of the body when the thighs were horizontal and as the knees extended to an angle of 45° indicated that negative acceleration was present at 68.9% of time points, more than predicted by chance.

Attachment-related individual differences in the consistency of relationship behavior interpretation.

The consistency with which people interpret relationship-based information has important implications for attachment theory and research. Our objective is to determine whether there are attachment-related individual differences in the manner and the consistency with which individuals interpret hypothetical relationship behaviors. In two studies (N = 629, 79% female, 63% American, M(age) = 29; N = 820, 78% female, 65% American, M(age) = 29), we assessed participants' ability and consistency in relationship behavior interpretation across two blocks and estimated how they would have performed had they interpreted information perfectly consistently. Secure participants were generally more consistent in their interpretations relative to insecure participants. Estimates of perfectly consistent interpretation revealed that improvements to both systematic factors related to behavior interpretation (e.g., working models) and consistency would have led to a more secure interpretation style for participants of all attachment styles. Results imply that both secure and insecure individuals process relationship-based information according to secure scripts, but insecure individuals do so inconsistently. Our results imply that, due to the inconsistent behavioral responses that may occur as a result of inconsistent information processing, the consistency with which people process relationship-related information will be related to relationship satisfaction. Further directions for future research are discussed.

Janteloven and the expression of pride in Norway and the United States.

The current study tested how culture may affect the interpretation of the expression of pride among Norwegian and U.S. participants. Our results show that participants from Norway ascribed more negative trait attributions to a target person expressing pride than U.S. participants. It is proposed that Janteloven is responsible for the differences in these trait attributions, and we interpret the results from a "closed-system" and "open-system" (Mayr, 1976) perspective.

Using theoretical constraints and the TASI taxonomy to delineate predictably replicable findings.

The focus of the present article is not on failures to replicate but on the more optimistically framed and more fruitful question: What stable findings can be reproduced reliably and can be trusted by decision makers, managers, health agents, or politicians? We propagate the working hypothesis that a twofold key to stable and replicable findings lies in the existence of theoretical constraints and, no less important, in researchers' sensitivity to metatheoretical, auxiliary assumptions. We introduce a hierarchy of four levels of theoretical constraints-a priori principles, psychophysical, empirical, and modelling constraints-combined with the TASI taxonomy of theoretical, auxiliary, statistical, and inferential assumptions Trafimow, Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour, 52, 37-48, (2022). Although theoretical constraints clearly facilitate stable and replicable research findings, TASI reminds us of various reasons why even perfectly valid hypotheses need not always be borne out. The presented framework should help researchers to operationalize conditions under which theoretical constraints render empirical findings most predictable.

An exploration of physics envy with implications for desiderata of psychology theories.

There is a trepidation, anxiety, or intuition, which has persisted for more than a century, that psychology theories are less anchored in fundamental laws than physics theories. Rather than attempt to refute the concern, the present work accepts it and tries out candidate explanations. These pertain to empirical laws, parsimony, scope, reductionism, falsifiability, mathematical operations (multiplication vs. addition), internal coherence, ceteris paribus stipulations, and purposeful omission of relevant factors (idealization). The conceptions underlying these explanations are not strictly independent, but they point to different distinctive features that might account for the unequal status of physics and psychological science and to different means of improving contemporary psychology. Although the available evidence for or against these candidate explanations is scarce and relies mainly on a few telling examples, we conclude that the last of our candidate explanations-reliance on idealized universes-works best and leads to the most insights about what psychology might learn from physics and what research strategies might foster the ideal of theory-driven psychological science in the future. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

A nuanced view of the extent to which samples from narrow populations are scientifically problematic.

Psychologists have a traditional concern with participant samples from narrow populations and deleterious effects on researchers' ability to generalize findings. Recently, both individuals and authoritative organizations, such as the American Psychological Association, have merged this external validity concern with diversity and inclusion concerns. The American Psychological Association directive for researchers to include diverse samples seems obviously well-taken as it purports to mitigate these problems at once; it simultaneously increases external validity and promotes diversity and inclusion. However, we show that there are complications. These include problems with internal and external validity conceptualizations; that sometimes generalization failures can support, rather than detract from, external validity; the crucial role auxiliary assumptions play in impacting internal and external validity; Lakatosian degenerative science and its problematic application; and distinguishing between merely including diverse groups in research samples versus analyzing for group differences. These complications imply a nuanced perspective of whether samples from narrow populations are undesirable. That a sample is from a narrow population might, or might not, preclude strong support or disconfirmation for the theory, including its ability to generalize. Our nuanced perspective militates against the current trend of journal directives to require diverse samples. Sample suitability for particular researcher goals should be judged on a case-by-case basis that takes into account that sometimes samples from narrow populations can nevertheless engender impressive scientific progress and sometimes not. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Improving inferential analyses predata and postdata.

The standard statistical procedure for researchers comprises a two-step process. Before data collection, researchers perform power analyses, and after data collection, they perform significance tests. Many have proffered arguments that significance tests are unsound, but that issue will not be rehashed here. It is sufficient that even for aficionados, there is the usual disclaimer that null hypothesis significance tests provide extremely limited information, thereby rendering them vulnerable to misuse. There is a much better postdata option that provides a higher grade of useful information. Based on work by Trafimow and his colleagues (for a review, see Trafimow, 2023a), it is possible to estimate probabilities of being better off or worse off, by varying degrees, depending on whether one gets the treatment or not. In turn, if the postdata goal switches from significance testing to a concern with probabilistic advantages or disadvantages, an implication is that the predata goal ought to switch accordingly. The a priori procedure, with its focus on parameter estimation, should replace conventional power analysis as a predata procedure. Therefore, the new two-step procedure should be the a priori procedure predata and estimations of probabilities of being better off, or worse off, to varying degrees, postdata. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Using potential performance theory to analyze systematic and random factors in enumeration tasks.

Prior research has shown that as the number of items being enumerated increases, performance decreases, especially when the amount of time is limited. Researchers studying nonverbal enumeration have found that random noise increases as a function of the number of items presented. Over a series of 2 experiments, the authors used potential performance theory to expand these findings and discover precisely how much random noise actually influences observed performance and what performance might look like in the absence of random factors. Participants briefly viewed a visual stimulus comprising a set of 4 to 9 dots presented horizontally (Experiment 1) or randomly (Experiment 2) on a computer monitor. Findings from both experiments indicate that the decrease in performance for larger set sizes resulted almost entirely from a reduction in consistency (or an increase in random noise), whereas potential performance remained fairly constant until the maximum set size.

A measure of within-participant response consistency.

In this article, we introduce a measure of within-participant response consistency for use in the analysis of performance in decision-making tasks. The measure is an estimate of the correlation between the responses associated with two identical blocks of trials, the second of which has yet to be conducted. We derive a formula for the measure that can be applied to data from any two-choice decision task, including yes/no detection and two-alternative forced choice (2AFC). The estimate is easily calculated from the observed frequencies of hits, misses, false alarms, and correct rejections. We utilized data from an actual 2AFC experiment to compare estimated and observed consistency values; the estimates accounted for more than 90 % of the variability in observed consistency scores. We also discuss potential applications of the measure.

The influence of presentation format on the "bigger is better" (BIB) effect.

Two experiments tested the "bigger is better" (BIB) effect, whereby bigger objects are perceived more favorably than smaller ones. In Experiment 1, participants directly compared pairs of objects and a strong BIB effect was obtained for both positively and negatively valenced stimuli. In Experiment 2, comparative and absolute evaluations were combined in a single experiment and the BIB effect was mediated for positively and negatively valenced stimuli. Taken in combination, the data support a complex hypothesis that pair-wise presentations induce a comparative process that causes a BIB effect. But when objects are evaluated separately, size and valence interact such that increased size evokes more positive ratings of positive objects and more negative ratings for negative objects.

A New Way to Think About Internal and External Validity.

Researchers have been concerned with internal and external validity for decades, and the discussion continues. The present proposal is that there are less important and more important senses in which one can interpret internal and external validity, and these can be integrated with a taxonomy that includes theoretical, auxiliary, statistical, and inferential assumptions. The integration sheds light on recent exchanges in the literature on validity and suggests that the vaunted internal-external validity trade-off is false for more important senses of internal and external validity; internal and external validity increase or decrease together when there is an emphasis on underlying theories. Finally, the integration implies the desirability of some changes in typical research advice and practice.

Enhancing predictive power by unamalgamating multi-item scales.

The generally small but touted as "statistically significant" correlation coefficients in the social sciences jeopardize theory testing and prediction. To investigate these small coefficients' underlying causes, traditional equations such as Spearman's (1904) classic attenuation formula, Cronbach's (1951) alpha, and Guilford and Fruchter's (1973) equation for the effect of additional items on a scale's predictive power are considered. These equations' implications differ regarding large interitem correlations enhancing or diminishing predictive power. Contrary to conventional practice, such correlations decrease predictive power when treating items as multi-item scale components but can increase predictive power when treating items separately. The implications are wide-ranging. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

When violations of perfect duties do not cause strong trait attributions.

It is well documented that violations of perfect duties (duties that can never be violated by moral agents) cause strong trait attributions. Brown, Trafimow, and Gregory (2005) found an exception to this general principle when the violation is performed under extreme circumstances. In the present research, we hypothesized that extreme circumstances are not necessary to weaken the attributional effect of violations of perfect duties provided that the violations were performed to help another person. Two experiments were performed in which target people violated perfect or imperfect duties for an unspecified reason or to help a third party. As expected, perfect duty violations did not result in strong trait attributions when they were performed to help someone, although they did result in strong trait attributions otherwise. Thus, the data support that the motive to help is sufficient to eliminate correspondent inferences to perfect duty violations.

Future health-related behavioral intention formation: the role of affect and cognition.

This study investigated the differential contribution of affect and cognition to behavioral intention formation during pursuit of future health-related goals. Cognitive evaluations, affective evaluations and behavioral intentions were measured for each of 32 health-related behaviors. The timeframes of the cognitive/affective measures and the behavioral intention measure were varied between current and future timeframes creating four different conditions. Within-participants correlations between affect and intentions and cognition and intentions were calculated to determine the contribution of each factor to behavioral intention formation in the different timeframes. Results did not support the hypothesis that a shift from a reliance on affect to a reliance on cognition would occur as temporal distance increased. Within-participants analyses revealed a decrease in the contribution of cognition to behavioral intention formation when forming attitudes in the future condition.

Intentional inferences are not more likely than unintentional ones: some evidence against the intentionality bias hypothesis.

We conducted a study to test the hypothesis that inferences about intentionality are biased toward an intentional interpretation. Contrary to previous research, participants were no more likely to judge ambiguous actions as intentional in a speeded compared to an unspeeded condition. Further, participants were faster to respond and more consistent in responding to unintentional rather than intentional actions.